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000
FXUS61 KBGM 190102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 190102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 190102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 190102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
902 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 PM UPDATE...
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE, A PREVAILING
THEME OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS IS
PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE GRIDS, SO WE NEEDED
TO MAKE SOME SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 6Z.

EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS BASED ON THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN CURRENT TEMPS AND FORECAST MINS, THE FORECAST FROM 6Z-12Z
DID NOT REQUIRE MUCH ALTERATION.

345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 190001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
801 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE AIR...AS AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THUS...STEAM FOG
LIKELY NEAR WARM BODIES OF WATER. HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
VICINITY AT BTV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY...AS EXPECTING STEAM FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER JUST EAST OF THE BTV AIRPORT.
EXPECTINGS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE. EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
801 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT
THIS TIME...BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY
FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE AIR...AS AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR GO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THUS...STEAM FOG
LIKELY NEAR WARM BODIES OF WATER. HAVE GONE WITH FOG IN THE
VICINITY AT BTV BETWEEN 08Z-12Z FRIDAY...AS EXPECTING STEAM FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WINOOSKI RIVER JUST EAST OF THE BTV AIRPORT.
EXPECTINGS SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BETWEEN
16Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE. EAST OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...WGH/NASH
CLIMATE...NASH







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 182346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...SO KEPT COVERAGE TO FEW-SCT.

VARIABLE DIRECTION TO WINDS WHICH ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. THESE
SHOULD ALL TURN N/NE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE
FLOW INCREASES WHILE GAINING MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...GUST START AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...GUST END
TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET










000
FXUS61 KOKX 182346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...SO KEPT COVERAGE TO FEW-SCT.

VARIABLE DIRECTION TO WINDS WHICH ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. THESE
SHOULD ALL TURN N/NE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE
FLOW INCREASES WHILE GAINING MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...GUST START AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...GUST END
TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET










000
FXUS61 KOKX 182346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...SO KEPT COVERAGE TO FEW-SCT.

VARIABLE DIRECTION TO WINDS WHICH ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. THESE
SHOULD ALL TURN N/NE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE
FLOW INCREASES WHILE GAINING MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...GUST START AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...GUST END
TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET










000
FXUS61 KOKX 182346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...SO KEPT COVERAGE TO FEW-SCT.

VARIABLE DIRECTION TO WINDS WHICH ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. THESE
SHOULD ALL TURN N/NE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE
FLOW INCREASES WHILE GAINING MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...GUST START AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...GUST END
TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET










000
FXUS61 KBGM 182341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 182341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 182341
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT
SUNSET THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST
OF I-90...EXTENDING TO THE PA STATE LINE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. 925
MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY ALLOW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ON
LAKE ONTARIO WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUPPORT THE EXISTING
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND NO
CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS
THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY UPPER 30S FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HOWEVER AT 23Z NONE OF THIS WAS IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS AREA TO DRIFT SOUTH AND THEN WEST...WHILE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WITH NIGHTFALL AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS JHW WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS MAY ALSO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO BUF/IAG/ROC...MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS AS SE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSH ENHANCE DRYING. ART SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITHOUT ANY LAKE
MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 182341
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT
SUNSET THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST
OF I-90...EXTENDING TO THE PA STATE LINE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. 925
MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY ALLOW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ON
LAKE ONTARIO WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUPPORT THE EXISTING
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND NO
CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS
THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY UPPER 30S FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HOWEVER AT 23Z NONE OF THIS WAS IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS AREA TO DRIFT SOUTH AND THEN WEST...WHILE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WITH NIGHTFALL AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS JHW WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS MAY ALSO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO BUF/IAG/ROC...MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS AS SE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSH ENHANCE DRYING. ART SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITHOUT ANY LAKE
MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 182339
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
739 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEW POINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRI UPDATE... STUBBORN MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ARND OVER
NY`S SRN TIER (KITH/KELM/KBGM) TIL 03-06Z...BEFORE FINALLY ERODING.

LTR TNT...ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE...VLY FOG FORMATION IS
ONCE AGN ANTICIPATED AT KELM (PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS)...ALBEIT A BIT
LTR THAN RECENT NGTS/EARLY MORNINGS (NOT FORMING TIL 08-09Z).

ON FRI...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AT KELM...VFR SHOULD DOMINATE
AGN...WITH JUST SCTD-BKN FAIR WX CU.

SFC WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
PICKING UP AGN ON FRI (5-8 KT) OUT OF THE SE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 182319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SKY
COVER TO ACCT FOR CURRENT VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
BLOCKED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING THIN MOISTURE NEAR 850 MB
MAY KEEP A SOME SPOTS PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT
OVERALL IDEA OF TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT (IF NOT SOONER)
STILL LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY UNDER
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND
ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS
WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 182314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
EVERYWHERE AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 182314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. SKY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
EVERYWHERE AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/NAS
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 182110 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
508 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND WAS
MARKED BY A LINE OF CUMULUS...AND NO PRECIPITATION. SO WILL BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH DRY.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW COULD OCCASIONALLY VARY TO SW WITH PARTIAL SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE BUT NW FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINANT. WINDS SPEEDS
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN NW AND SSW.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-50 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES
LEFT OF FORECAST WIND THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES
LEFT OF FORECAST WIND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/MMD
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET










000
FXUS61 KOKX 182105
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
505 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND WAS
MARKED BY A LINE OF CUMULUS...AND NO PRECIPITATION. SO WILL BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH DRY.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

NW FLOW COULD OCCASIONALLY VARY TO SW WITH PARTIAL SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE BUT NW FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY DOMINANT. WINDS SPEEDS
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KT.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCASIONALLY VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING
N-NNW.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-50 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF FORECAST WIND THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES
RIGHT OF FORECAST WIND THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY 30-40 DEGREES FROM
FORECAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM/MMD
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET






000
FXUS61 KBUF 182038
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  ONLY UPPER 30S
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 182038
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  ONLY UPPER 30S
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 182038
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  ONLY UPPER 30S
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 182038
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  ONLY UPPER 30S
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181957
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
357 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST BY DAWN FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
FRONT HAS FINISHED MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...AND SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL DECK OF CLOUDS HAS BECOME MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD. AS EXPECTED...SPRINKLES WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN /AND
NOW ABSENT/...SO MENTION OF THEM HAS NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND BANKING
INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SOMEWHAT. FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS
GOOD FOR FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST CORNER
TOWARDS BOONVILLE AND FORESTPORT...SO FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WARNING. FOR FROST ADVISORY DECISION...FOCUS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON WHERE SKY IS LIKELY TO CLEAR QUICKLY...AND GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS INCLUDES ONONDAGA-
SOUTHERN ONEIDA- MADISON-TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO. COMPARED TO
THESE COUNTIES...AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL HAVE MORE POST-FRONTAL
CLOUDS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW /INSTEAD OF CALM/...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS
TO HINDER FROST FORMATION. STILL POSSIBLE...BUT FIGURING ON PATCHY
AT BEST. TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. CONTINUING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH...WYOMING VALLEY AND WAYNE-PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND THUS EVEN PATCHY
FROST HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-025-036-
     037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 181955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND WAS
MARKED BY A LINE OF CUMULUS...AND NO PRECIPITATION. SO WILL BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH DRY.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WIL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

WINDS BACKING TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KGON. SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY MOVED
THRU KBDR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY BETWEEN 160 AND 220 WITH SEA
BREEZE AT JFK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET









000
FXUS61 KOKX 181955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND WAS
MARKED BY A LINE OF CUMULUS...AND NO PRECIPITATION. SO WILL BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH DRY.

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WIL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN.

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

WINDS BACKING TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KGON. SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY MOVED
THRU KBDR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY VARY BETWEEN 160 AND 220 WITH SEA
BREEZE AT JFK THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET








000
FXUS61 KALY 181954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HAVING GONE THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION AT
THIS HOUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE...WITH EVEN A
SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SARATOGA COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY...WHILE SHALLOW...IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD WANE
BY DARK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOL
AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 181954
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 354 PM EDT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST HAVING GONE THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION AT
THIS HOUR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE...WITH EVEN A
SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SARATOGA COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY...WHILE SHALLOW...IS CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND SHOULD WANE
BY DARK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL USHER IN A COOL
AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS
IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WELL INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS. FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 181937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS. FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECWMF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR LIFT WILL BE WEAK.
NAM/GFS BOTH HINT AT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SUSPECT THAT THIS QPF WILL MANIFEST MAINLY AS JUST SOME
LOW CLOUDINESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY FOR JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A FEW PLACES
GET A LIGHT SHOWER... SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PASS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A
COMPLICATING FACTOR COULD BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD ACT TO DECREASE MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ALSO DIFFER
SIGIFICANTLY ON THE INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE NAM INDICATING
UP TO 1000 J/KG WHILE THE GFS/ECWMF SHOW MINIMAL CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND PUT A LOW CHC FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBUF 181809
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE THE
SHIELD OF LAKE CLOUDS BLANKETING AREAS FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG TERMINALS AS EXPECTED...WITH LOW
LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS AT KROC/KART. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KJHW
TERMINAL...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 181809
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE THE
SHIELD OF LAKE CLOUDS BLANKETING AREAS FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG TERMINALS AS EXPECTED...WITH LOW
LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS AT KROC/KART. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KJHW
TERMINAL...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV
MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS
APRCH 16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV
MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS
APRCH 16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV
MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS
APRCH 16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 181756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR
TWO. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST
TO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS
NORTHWARD. DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA NOW...WITH SHALLOW POST FRONTAL
DECK OF CLOUDS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR WHILE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD.
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN...WHEREAS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WILL
GENERALLY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S A FEW MORE HOURS. AS
EXPECTED...SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...AND BY 6PM
ANY MENTION OF THEM ARE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE AREA.

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IS FROST. THE TRICKY THING IS THAT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH LOWS...AND THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS IN THE TWIN TIERS AND EVEN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS...WHICH MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT.
FLOW DOES VEER NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT THOUGH WHICH IS GOOD FOR
FALLING DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKY. WILL BE MAKING FROST/FREEZE
DECISION VERY SOON.

QUIET DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S...AND HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S /5-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV
MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS
APRCH 16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SHALLOW FRONT NOW SLIPPING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING NORTHWEST-NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST-EAST TONIGHT...AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. KSYR-KRME-KITH
DEEP ENOUGH INTO THE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS FOR MVFR CIG TO STILL
OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. FARTHER
SOUTH...TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND THUS REMAINING VFR. MAIN CONCERN
TONIGHT IS WHETHER OR NOT KELM CAN MANAGE VALLEY FOG. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BRINGING IN DRIER AIR...YET TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE FALLING QUICKLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HITS IT HARD...BUT
BECAUSE OF THE DRYING AIR MASS AND WIND DIRECTION...I DO NOT HAVE
SOLID CONFIDENCE IN IT. AT THIS POINT...I HAVE INCLUDED 08Z-12Z
TEMPO GROUP FOR LOW END IFR VIS. IT MAY BE RATHER BOUNCY IN-AND-
OUT DUE TO SHALLOWNESS OF NEAR SATURATED LAYER...AND PLENTY OF
VERY DRY AIR AND MODEST EASTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 181750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 181750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 1730Z...RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.
IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...SO HAVE
ONLY VCSH IN THE TAFS. THE ONLY OTHER CHANCE FOR NONE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION TO SUPPRESS MOST FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP OCNL IFR FOG OUT OF THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY
P6SM SKC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL. THERE MAY ALSO BE OCNL GUSTS TO 15
KTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM











000
FXUS61 KOKX 181736
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE NEW YORK AT MID MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE PROVIDED LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SEEN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

WINDS BACKING TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KGON. SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY MOVED
THRU KBDR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AT MID MORNING AND NORTHERLY
WIND ALSO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL REMAINS
ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING OVER
THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181736
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE NEW YORK AT MID MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE PROVIDED LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SEEN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

WINDS BACKING TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KGON. SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY MOVED
THRU KBDR. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AT MID MORNING AND NORTHERLY
WIND ALSO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL REMAINS
ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING OVER
THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET






000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
EVENING HOURS.

TONIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE VELOCITY
OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHICH
IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS ALONG THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 181726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 181726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH
LIFT/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN FULTON/SARATOGA
COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER POPPING UP ANYWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SARATOGA REGION SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STEADY OR
SLOWLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION NORTHWARD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FARTHER SOUTH...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD.

WE HAVE NOT EXPANDED THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ANY FURTHER EXCEPT
FOR ADDING NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY /THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS/ TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA EARLIER.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...A LARGE AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181654
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181654
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1254 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLOWER CLEARING ON THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE THE SUN
WAS OUT EARLIER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. REST OF GRIDS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 181549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADDED NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY (THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS) TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-082>
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/LFM
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...














000
FXUS61 KALY 181549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AND AREAS OF FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE ADDED NORTHERN FULTON COUNTY (THE SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
ADIRONDACKS) TO THE FROST ADVISORY AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
HOURLY TEMP ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND ALSO
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-082>
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/LFM
NEAR TERM...GJM/LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...













000
FXUS61 KBUF 181524
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS POPPING UP JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING ALL
TOGETHER...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AT KBUF/KART CURRENTLY BEING SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED...WITH IFR CIGS AT KIAG/KROC. EXPECT
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO
KJHW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181524
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS POPPING UP JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING ALL
TOGETHER...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AT KBUF/KART CURRENTLY BEING SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED...WITH IFR CIGS AT KIAG/KROC. EXPECT
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO
KJHW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







000
FXUS61 KOKX 181440
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE NEW YORK AT MID MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE PROVIDED LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SEEN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AT MID MORNING AND NORTHERLY
WIND ALSO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL REMAINS
ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING OVER
THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...MMD/DW
MARINE...JC/24/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/24












000
FXUS61 KOKX 181440
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE NEW YORK AT MID MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE PROVIDED LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SEEN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AT MID MORNING AND NORTHERLY
WIND ALSO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL REMAINS
ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING OVER
THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...MMD/DW
MARINE...JC/24/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/24











000
FXUS61 KBTV 181428
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM TODAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT
2 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LONGER DURATION OF CLOUDS TODAY...OTHERWISE REST OF GRIDS
REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181428
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1028 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS
AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT THURSDAY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
WARM TODAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT
2 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LONGER DURATION OF CLOUDS TODAY...OTHERWISE REST OF GRIDS
REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIR MASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. DRY
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...PLACEMENT OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS JUST SLIPPING
THROUGH THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR /INCLUDING SYR ASOS IN THE LAST
HOUR/ AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHALLOWNESS OF FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SPRINKLES-LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
OCCURRING...AND EVEN THOSE MAINLY IN THE NEW YORK ZONES. THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA THE POST-
FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ADVECTS...THE HARDER TIME IT WILL HAVE
MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A SOLID OVERCAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
NOW IS HOW MUCH IMPACT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON THE FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBGM 181359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS NORTHWARD. DRY
WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...PLACEMENT OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS NEEDED BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS JUST SLIPPING
THROUGH THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR /INCLUDING SYR ASOS IN THE LAST
HOUR/ AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHALLOWNESS OF FRONT WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SPRINKLES-LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
OCCURRING...AND EVEN THOSE MAINLY IN THE NEW YORK ZONES. THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA THE POST-
FRONTAL CLOUD DECK ADVECTS...THE HARDER TIME IT WILL HAVE
MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A SOLID OVERCAST. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
NOW IS HOW MUCH IMPACT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON THE FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KALY 181157
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
757 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS
WAKE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z/14Z THU. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 5000-9000 FT RANGE
AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL BETWEEN 22Z/THU-02Z/FRI.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LIGHT NORTH
WIND PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE AT KPSF...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITY TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...ESP BETWEEN 13Z-16Z/THU...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AT KGFL AND KALB.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MAINLY LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER 02Z/FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KOKX 181148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24








000
FXUS61 KOKX 181148
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 181141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-1000MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC MVFR-VFR CIGS AND IFR
AT KSLK. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW NO RESTRICTIONS
TO VSBY SO HAVE KEPT IN SOME VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO COVER
THIS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SO EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT AFTER 00Z. NOT THINKING
ANY FOG FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AND
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 181127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 181127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS FOR THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST UPDATE. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 181110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO AT 11Z WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
THOUGH...AS THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A LIMITED
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LEGITIMATE SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE UPGRADED A
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. COULD NOT GET
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES OR CONSENSUS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SRN TIER..SO
WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL
HAVE TO RE EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AT DAYBREAK WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...AS LOWERING CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SRN TIER (INCL. KJHW) WHERE LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST WIND...WHICH ON LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 181110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO AT 11Z WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
THOUGH...AS THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A LIMITED
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LEGITIMATE SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE UPGRADED A
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. COULD NOT GET
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES OR CONSENSUS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SRN TIER..SO
WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL
HAVE TO RE EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AT DAYBREAK WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...AS LOWERING CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SRN TIER (INCL. KJHW) WHERE LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST WIND...WHICH ON LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 181031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBGM 181031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG/LOW CIGS VCNTY KELM WILL BURN OFF BY
15Z. ELSEWHERE...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A WEAK...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR NO CIG. DENSE VALLEY FOG AT KELM MAY AGAIN BE A
PROBLEM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH DRY ADVECTION AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAKES
THAT A LOW CONFIDENCE IDEA AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY
0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 181013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ALONG A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE
TRANQUIL WEATHER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AS WE WORK TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TO EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 180915
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
515 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN 30H TAFS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






000
FXUS61 KOKX 180915
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
515 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO 12Z IN 30H TAFS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 180836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD
FROST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
SECTIONS AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES AT THIS TIME...WILL PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 20-30 POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH.

REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND -2 C ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DUE LATER TIME OF FROPA. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH DUE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EDT THURSDAY...NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT. ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NY...AS WELL AS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. MIN TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND ALL OF CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY. MIN TEMPS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 32-36F. A BIT MILDER IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY
(CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS) DUE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE
WATERS. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN
MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY IN
THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION.

ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF AIR TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPS MODERATE TO
BETWEEN +3 AND +5 C BY EVENING. BUT THE COLD START TO THE DAY WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO TOP 60 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS IT SLIDES
SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS TONIGHT
IN MOST AREAS...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
40S IN THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE. ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG IN SAME AREAS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AS WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED AND FORCING WEAK HOWEVER...SO CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS APPEAR RATHER LOW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20-30 PER CHANCE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
BETWEEN +11 AND +14C...SO IT WILL BE MILDER EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH RATHER
BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 180813
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERNIGHT. N/NW WINDS THU MORNING...
BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24






000
FXUS61 KOKX 180813
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH TODAY AND START
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS
LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE PROVIDED
LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN SEEN
YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERNIGHT. N/NW WINDS THU MORNING...
BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY...BUT WITH A 3 TO 4
FT SWELL ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS
OCCURRING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24







000
FXUS61 KALY 180808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM...COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS STAFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180806
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK...WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRETCHING WEST FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE LENGTH LAKE ONTARIO AT 06Z WILL SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES THOUGH...AS THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND A LIMITED SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE THOUGH...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY (IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE
PEAK OF THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD
PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE
DAY THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE UPGRADED A
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. COULD NOT GET
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES OR CONSENSUS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SRN TIER..SO
WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL
HAVE TO RE EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 07Z WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT COULD
GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE
LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR
FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST WIND...WHICH ON LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BTV
CWA ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD BE A PRETTY MILD NIGHT
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S AREA-WIDE TO LOW 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGGING THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN REGARDS TO FROPA TIMING...AND FEEL
CONFIDENT WE`LL SEE A GOOD 6-HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. BETS GUESS AT TIMING
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE 12-18Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY 18-00Z...AND EASTERN VERMONT 00-06Z SUNDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING BUT THE
TRAILING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST STATES WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST AVAILABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EAST OF THE BTV CWA WITH THE FRONT BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST. WE
COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT (JAY PEAK TO MANSFIELD) AS
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS OFF THE GFS FALL BELOW FREEZING AND 500-100MB
THICKNESS DIP BELOW 540DM. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WARMER SO WE`LL
SEE...BUT FALL WILL DEFINITELY BE IN THE AIR WITH THE TREND OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180725
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180725
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180725
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180725
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST. ENHANCED GRIDS A BIT
ON SUNDAY WITH LATEST MOS/WPC GUIDANCE AND ALSO BLENDED TO SMOOTH
IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY
4...BUT LATEST ECMWF/GFS MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN THAT DAY...SO TREND IS BODING WELL FOR RAISING THE
NUMBERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...JAB/KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBGM 180708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBGM 180708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBGM 180708
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY WHICH MAY GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER NEW YORK. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED FROST TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL LOOKING LIKE A MAINLY DRY COLD FNT DROPPING THRU TODAY. SOME
SPOTTY PCPN DVLPD ON THE SHRT TERM MODELS DESPITE THE FNT WASHING
OUT AND SHEARING AS IT DROPS SOUTH...SO WILL CONT WITH VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS AND LGT PCPN IN THE FCST. CRNT TIMING ON THE NAM WLD
HAVE THE FNT ENTERING THE NRN ZONES BEFORE 12Z...THEN CRASHING
THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z. WIND SHFT AND CAA BHD THE FNT MAY
KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NRN ZONES
TODAY...ESP FROM LATE MORNING ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

COLDEST NGT OF THE SEASON SO FAR TNGT WITH A 1025MB HIGH DROPPING
IN BHD THE FNT. WITH THE UPR TROF LINE OVER WRN NEW ENG...SFC FLOW
WILL BE MORE NELY PROVIDING IDEAL CAA CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE AIR. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HWVR AS THE LATEST RUNS HAVE SLIPPED THE CORE OF THE COLD
AIR A BIT FURTHER NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MOS GUID
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WRMR THAT THE PRVS RUNS. THIS IS TYPICAL
FOR EARLY SEASON COLD OUTBREAKS AS THE MODELS BACK OFF ON THEIR
INITIAL FCST. SO...WILL CONT WITH THE WATCH OVER THE NORTH...AND
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN TO FINALIZE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

HIGH CONTS TO SLIDE EAST LTR FRI INTO SAT AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. WAA BEGINS EARLY FRI AND CONTS THRU SAT AHD OF A WV MVG
THRU THE NRN LAKES. SIGNIFICANT WRMG BY LATE SAT AS H8 TEMPS APRCH
16C BY 00Z SUN.

BEST UPR DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR PCPN REMAINS WELL NOERTH OF THE FCST
AREA THRU THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. STILL...LOOKS LIKE THE XTRM
NRN AREAS MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SFC CONV AND MAY SEE A STRAY
SHWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBUF 180644
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL PRESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE WEE PRE DAWN HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180644
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL PRESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE WEE PRE DAWN HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180644
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL PRESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE WEE PRE DAWN HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180644
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL PRESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE WEE PRE DAWN HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 180608
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE MAINLY TO REFLECT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING.
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABE FLOW OVERNIGHT. N/NW WINDS THU MORNING...
BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET






000
FXUS61 KOKX 180608
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE MAINLY TO REFLECT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING.
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABE FLOW OVERNIGHT. N/NW WINDS THU MORNING...
BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT
KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET







000
FXUS61 KBGM 180548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB






000
FXUS61 KBGM 180548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS ARE INDICATING VFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME WHERE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS LOWER LEVEL MOIST
LAYER FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGEST CIGS IN THE FL015-025 RANGE BEFORE
MIXING OUT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR KSYR-KRME WITH EARLIEST
ARRIVAL TIME. FURTHER SOUTH...TIME OF DAY WILL TEND TO MIX OUT
BASE OF CLOUDS. KELM...AS USUAL IS THE WILD CARD. WE SEE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
ALTERNATE FUEL/AIRPORT MIN RESTRICTION AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE IN. AS FRONT APPROACHES...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
MIXY TO PRECLUDE FOG LOCKING IN...SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE
VARIABILITY IN THE FCST.

ALL CIGS SLOWLY LIFT AND BURN OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SKC AT SUNSET.

LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY BECOME N-NW AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN NELY 0-5 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...JAB







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-OVC VFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-DAY. CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED
SPRINKLES ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. FEEL THIS WASN`T EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER 00Z. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A
TIME AT PBG AND MSS) FOR THURSDAY FROM 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT...MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MORNING MVFR WITH LINGERING POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE...TRENDING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 180523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...BUT
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY LIMIT
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST
FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS
WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 180523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...BUT
ARE BEGINNING TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS WHICH MAY LIMIT
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST
FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS
WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH.

SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180511
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 180511
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO REAL CHANGES NEEDED...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF OTTAWA OF OTTAWA AND MONTREAL...AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH TOWARDS FORECAST AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT LOOK REASONABLE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 180425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE MAINLY TO REFLECT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING.
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT W/NW LATE. N/NW WINDS THU
MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE
POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING TO LEFT OF
310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET







000
FXUS61 KOKX 180425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE MAINLY TO REFLECT TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING.
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT W/NW LATE. N/NW WINDS THU
MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE
POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING TO LEFT OF
310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET






000
FXUS61 KBUF 180322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE SRN
TIER WHERE SOME VALLEY FOG AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF STRATUS COULD
PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL
DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL
ALSO ADD WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO
HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS... BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE SRN
TIER WHERE SOME VALLEY FOG AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF STRATUS COULD
PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL
DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL
ALSO ADD WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO
HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS... BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE SRN
TIER WHERE SOME VALLEY FOG AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF STRATUS COULD
PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL
DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL
ALSO ADD WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO
HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS... BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1122 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE SRN
TIER WHERE SOME VALLEY FOG AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF STRATUS COULD
PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL
DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL
ALSO ADD WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO
HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS... BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 03Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







000
FXUS61 KOKX 180211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...TEMPS ARE
FALLING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING.
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT W/NW LATE. N/NW WINDS THU
MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEABREEZE
POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING TO LEFT OF
310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEABREEZE POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET










000
FXUS61 KOKX 180211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...TEMPS ARE
FALLING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING.
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK.

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT W/NW LATE. N/NW WINDS THU
MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEABREEZE
POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING TO LEFT OF
310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEABREEZE POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET











000
FXUS61 KALY 180201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. MANY AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SO...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 180201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST FLOW...RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDS IS WELL NORTH AND MAKING VERY
SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH. MANY AREAS SHOULD BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

SO...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME
L40S POSSIBLE NORTH IN THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE AREA...BUT ALSO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SRN VT AND THE NRN BERKS...CLOSE TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
THIS PROMPTED THE EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
BTV...BGM...GYX AND BUF FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
THU NIGHT. BACKING UP...THE BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH FOR ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO +4C NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES BY 00Z/FRI...AND +4C TO +8C TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
AREAS...AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

THU NIGHT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WIDESPREAD FROST FOR HAMILTON...NRN HERKIMER...AND NRN WARREN
COUNTIES. TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO 32F ARE EXPECTED IN THE SRN
DACKS. OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...SRN BERKSHIRE AND SE CATSKILLS MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR TEMPS IN THE 33-36F RANGE WITH AREAS OF FROST. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO PRODUCT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS LOWS IN
THE U30S TO L40S WILL BE COMMON. THIS WILL BE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON...AS ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WILL END ON SEPT 23RD.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC. THE 1029 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
WX DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH THE SYSTEM.  H850 TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60-65F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER MANY OF THE HILLS AND MTNS.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
FROM THE RETREATING HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MILDER MINS WITH GENERALLY U30S TO U40S OVER MOST OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT SOME HINTS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING LIFTING OUT TOWARD
THE 7 DAY TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER IMPULSE.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN INTERVALS
OF CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BETTER
WARMING SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT BUT KEEPING SCATTERED AS THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME LIMITED MOISTURE. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...STRONGER COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

SO...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY...
PREFRONTAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS MONDAY...JUST POST FRONTAL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S...AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE THE CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...
WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF AND KPOU...WHERE CLOUDS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z-13Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ACKNOWLEDGE IN TAFS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN
WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN
LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 35

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180200
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 957 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO
REAL CHANGES NEEDED. FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH REGION AND NOW
LIES FROM NEAR OTTAWA TO MONTREAL. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180200
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1000 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN FALL-LIKE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD FROST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SECTIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 957 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO
REAL CHANGES NEEDED. FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH REGION AND NOW
LIES FROM NEAR OTTAWA TO MONTREAL. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
REMAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 721 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING WITH
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES
SHOULD BE AROUND 06Z IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...09Z CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z. AREAS THAT START
CLEAR THIS EVENING WILL DROP RAPIDLY AT FIRST...BUT OVERALL
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WON`T BE MET UNTIL LATE AFTER FRONT
PASSES...GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AS
THE FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL ALSO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPR 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP. HIGHS
THURSDAY OF MID-UPR 50S NRN AREAS...AND LOCALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND LATER
ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE EVENT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. 1000-500MB RH VALUES DROP
BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND ANTICIPATE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT GRAND ISLE
COUNTY (CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS)...WHERE THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS SHOULD LOCALLY PRECLUDE A FREEZE. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM 31-35F FOR MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (JUST A FROST IN
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE)...AND GENERALLY MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN NY AND VERMONT. THE FREEZE WILL BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
EARLY BY 1-2 WEEKS IN MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT AND THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE NOCTURNAL
FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT
AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 14-15Z FRIDAY FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

AFTER A FROSTY START WITH SOME VALLEY FOG...FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE
RESPLENDENT BLUE SKIES AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN
CONTROL...DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SE-S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 55-60F IN MOST SECTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH ELONGATES FROM SW-NE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
WINDS REACH 20-25 KTS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW AND MID-UPPER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN EXPECTED LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LOW-MID 40S. MAY STILL
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EAST OF THE
GREENS MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 UTC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THAN PRIOR MODEL CYCLES.
INITIAL PERIOD OF MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND
USHERING IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS. WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +13 TO +15C BECOMES BRIEFLY ENTRENCHED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LEADING TO DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POPS /LIKELY/ HOWEVER IS LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS 850 MB TEMPS CRASH BACK TO THE +5 TO +7C RANGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. EARLIER 00Z ECMWF HAD SHOWN MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAS MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE GFS. STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THERMAL TROUGHING STILL IN PLACE ALOFT. PRIMARILY HAVE STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...SO WILL ONLY SHOW WITH
VCSH. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS...WITH MVFR LIKELY
FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST (NORTHEAST FOR A TIME AT PBG) FOR THURSDAY FROM
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. IFR
IN EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO LIKELY EACH NIGHT, MAINLY FOR KSLK AND
KMPV.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD...TRENDING MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
CLIMATE...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THIS FEATURE PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE AXIS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING ANAFRONTAL IN
NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOL...MOIST AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WHERE SOME VALLEY FOG AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 00Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 00Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THIS FEATURE PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE AXIS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING ANAFRONTAL IN
NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOL...MOIST AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WHERE SOME VALLEY FOG AND POSSIBLY A BIT OF STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 00Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 00Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 180044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THU UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGN...PRODUCING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABT 08Z.

DURG THE DAY THU...A COLD FRNT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CNY/NE PA
RATHER EARLY...GENERALLY IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH LTL OR
NO PCPN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ITSELF...A PD OF MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED POST-FROPA AT KSYR/KRME/KITH. AT LEAST THE LOWEST CIG
BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP WITH SWD EXTENT...SO VFR
CIG BASES ARE PROGGED AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NW
ON THU...AT 8-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBGM 180044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THU UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGN...PRODUCING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABT 08Z.

DURG THE DAY THU...A COLD FRNT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CNY/NE PA
RATHER EARLY...GENERALLY IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH LTL OR
NO PCPN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ITSELF...A PD OF MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED POST-FROPA AT KSYR/KRME/KITH. AT LEAST THE LOWEST CIG
BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP WITH SWD EXTENT...SO VFR
CIG BASES ARE PROGGED AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NW
ON THU...AT 8-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBUF 172356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THIS FEATURE PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE AXIS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING ANAFRONTAL IN
NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOL...MOIST AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...BRINGING LOWER-END VFR CIGS AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. BY
VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SOME OF THE LOWER VFR
CIGS WILL MAY PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS A KBUF-KIAG-KROC LINE...WHILE FOG
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT THE KJHW TERMINAL DOWN TO THE MVFR RANGE.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WESTERN NEW YORK TERMINALS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD IN
A NICE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS...BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE LOW VFR CIGS
MAY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 172356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THIS FEATURE PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE AXIS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING ANAFRONTAL IN
NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOL...MOIST AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...BRINGING LOWER-END VFR CIGS AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. BY
VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SOME OF THE LOWER VFR
CIGS WILL MAY PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS A KBUF-KIAG-KROC LINE...WHILE FOG
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT THE KJHW TERMINAL DOWN TO THE MVFR RANGE.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WESTERN NEW YORK TERMINALS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD IN
A NICE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS...BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE LOW VFR CIGS
MAY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 172356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THIS FEATURE PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE AXIS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING ANAFRONTAL IN
NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOL...MOIST AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...BRINGING LOWER-END VFR CIGS AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. BY
VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SOME OF THE LOWER VFR
CIGS WILL MAY PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS A KBUF-KIAG-KROC LINE...WHILE FOG
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT THE KJHW TERMINAL DOWN TO THE MVFR RANGE.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WESTERN NEW YORK TERMINALS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD IN
A NICE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS...BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE LOW VFR CIGS
MAY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 172356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY BRING A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA. FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME
HEATING WANES...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THIS FEATURE PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE AXIS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING ANAFRONTAL IN
NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS
SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOL...MOIST AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWING THAT JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE DIURNAL CU FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION HAS DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSING IN OUR DIRECTION
FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC PROVINCES.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...BRINGING LOWER-END VFR CIGS AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. BY
VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SOME OF THE LOWER VFR
CIGS WILL MAY PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS A KBUF-KIAG-KROC LINE...WHILE FOG
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT THE KJHW TERMINAL DOWN TO THE MVFR RANGE.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WESTERN NEW YORK TERMINALS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND
HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD IN
A NICE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC
TERMINALS...BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE LOW VFR CIGS
MAY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 172355
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
755 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL O