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000
FXUS61 KOKX 020054
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10 KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MON AS ONE LOW DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS61 KBUF 020032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
832 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT SHOWERS
SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA



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000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 020002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
758 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT...MOST OF THE STEADIER RAIN HAS SLIPPED TO OUR EAST
AS ONE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED ON BY. DESPITE THE BREAK IN STEADY RAIN
THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION.

WE EXPECT THIS TREND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES (HOLDING IN THE 40S). LOOK FOR NUISANCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND EVEN SOME FOG MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.

WE DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA.

AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED MORE LIKE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE EXIT TO OUR EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN GREENS...50-55 MOST OTHER AREAS...55 TO PERHAPS 60
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF LATE DAY SUNSHINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVENING GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE REGION...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LIGHT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF REGION. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LEVEL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF REGION OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MODELS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TOWARD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH
THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED ON BY. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE THE CULPRITS.

THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL WORK MAINLY FROM KALB NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY BRINGING MVFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY KALB NORTHWARD).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE
SOUTHERLY AT TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 012351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER STAGNANT...COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND FOG. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE.

WINDS ESE-SSW 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LGT/VRBL. WINDS
BECOMING NW-N 5-10 KTS AFT 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012351
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RATHER STAGNANT...COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
CONTINUE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN RAIN/DRIZZLE
AND FOG. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE.

WINDS ESE-SSW 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LGT/VRBL. WINDS
BECOMING NW-N 5-10 KTS AFT 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 012346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR INTERVALS
FROM VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE, MIST AND STRATUS. LOW CEILINGS WILL
OBSCURE MTNS.

WARM FRONTAL RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHWARD, WITH ONLY A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 03Z,
UNSATURATED CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT AREAS OF DRIZZLE
(INTERSPERSED WITH MIST) LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY
(14-16Z) MONDAY. IT`S DURING THIS 03-14Z TIME PERIOD WHERE
CEILINGS/VIS MAY DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE. I`VE TRIED TO HINT AT
THIS WITH SCT IFR CEILINGS IN PREVAILING MVFR DECK. WINDS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS TRENDING LIGHT/VARIABLE.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS NEXT SHOT OF STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN AFTER 14Z LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH 3-5 SM RAIN. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
UNDER 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUE - 12Z TUE: MVFR IN RAIN. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW
CEILINGS.
TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.
FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012327
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT SHOWERS
SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 012319
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PROGGED TO TRACK NE
TOWARD PA BY MORNING. FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...JUST A FEW LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
LATE TONIGHT, TOWARD 12Z, NEXT BATCH OF HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/W ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SFC LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BUDGE TOO MUCH
TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WAA PATTERN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWS FIRST
WEAK 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SECTION...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO MOVING TOWARD OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ZONES ABOVE 1500 FEET...WITH
DEVELOPING 925MB JET OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG...GIVEN <10 KNOTS THROUGH 850MB AT KMSS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
SOUTH WITH HIGHEST QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10 CONFINED TO THE COUNTIES
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE
LOWS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND SURFACE
DWPTS ALREADY IN THE L/M 40S. EXPECTING VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW A
STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KOKX 012251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
651 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 10KFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH
DEEPEST SATURATION OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH A COOL...MOIST NE FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STEADIEST RAIN PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS OF JUST LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS WITH
SOME DRIZZLE. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. POPS DECREASE TO JUST CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA AROUND 9PM.

LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED.

WARM FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY...AND STEADY RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE
COUNTY AT THAT TIME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN
IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT
OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN
DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY OVERNIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.
AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT. THE WIND
FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE...
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON COASTAL WATERS REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING.

SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
439 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
TOMORROW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS TOMORROW A STRONGER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE
MENTIONED CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE MORNING TAPERING OFF TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS TONIGHT AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM. AS SUCH I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS
(40-60 PCT) IN THE EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL
TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES, AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN
DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED
925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF
MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS, SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS. AS OF 21
Z RAIN IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE THRU 01Z/MON
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE
OR S AT 5-10 KTS. MORE PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 012008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011954
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011938
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A MORE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RAIN BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND PRECIP TAPERING
OFF...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SATURATED AND LOW PRES TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH.

MOST MODELS INDICATING A LULL IN THE PRECIP SOMETIME LATE
TONIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. WITH ATMOSPHERE
SATURATED...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IN THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG.

WARM FRONT NOSES INTO FAR NW ZONES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND RAIN
MAY BE LIKELY OVER NW ORANGE COUNTY BY THEN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS LOW PRES OVER WESTERN NY APPROACHES...A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO
FORM OFF THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT LOW WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA. THINK BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER NW ZONES MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FOR THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS...BUT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL EITHER BE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING...CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPPER
LEVEL CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS
JUNCTURE IS RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN
IN THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT
OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN
DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY OVERNIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST.
AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT. THE WIND
FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE...
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KT POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
THEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA. WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER
THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/4 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN AN
ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES. 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011907
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
300 PM UPDATE...
RADAR DEPICTS MORE CONVECTIVE-LOOKING ACTIVITY FIRING OVER WESTERN
PA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AFTER
LOWERING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WE KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENING HOURS, WHEN THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO PASS ALONG NY/PA BORDER.

1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011907
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF WEAK STORMS ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
300 PM UPDATE...
RADAR DEPICTS MORE CONVECTIVE-LOOKING ACTIVITY FIRING OVER WESTERN
PA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AFTER
LOWERING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON, WE KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENING HOURS, WHEN THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO PASS ALONG NY/PA BORDER.

1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM UPDATE...
A POTENT WAVE WILL PASS OVER NY/PA EARLY MONDAY, BRINGING A QUICK SHOT
OF MODERATE RAINS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF OUR
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR
VICINITY. THOUGH RAINS WILL TAPER OFF, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER NY AND PA FROM TIME TO TIME.

A MEAN TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIPPING OUT OF ONTARIO ACROSS NY/PA EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AS COOLER AIR
KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PCPN WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH
I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE
EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES,
AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM
THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY
LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS,
SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011830
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS THEN EXIT NORTHEAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WEAK RIDGING DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WITH OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER TIME,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH ANY CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE GENERALLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 35
TO 45 RANGE AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY FROM 57 TO 63 OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF THE WEAK AS DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SETTLES SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH, LIKELY CUTTING
OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD. THESE LATEST TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS/PCPN WOULD OCCUR ON THE FRONT END OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, BEYOND WHICH DEFAULT RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK
ACROSS OUR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM. AS SUCH
I`VE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SHOWERS (40-60 PCT) IN THE
EARLIER TIME FRAMES, THEN TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH LOWER POPS
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TIME WILL TELL HOW ALL THIS EVOLVES,
AND IT`S ALWAYS A BIT TRICKY WHEN DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOWS. PER LATEST BLENDED 925-850 MB THERMAL PROFILES FROM
THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS EACH DAY MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. IF MORE SUN IS REALIZED BY
LATER IN THE WEEK SOME LOWER 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE. YES FOLKS,
SPRING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 011744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011744
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN RESPECT TO THE
XPCTD CLSD LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
OH VLY THU DVLPS INTO A CLSD LOW WHICH DRFTS TO THE NC CST BY FRI
MRNG. THIS WILL KEEP SHWRS AND COOL AIR OVER THE AREA THRU THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SAT MRNG...UPR LOW AS DRFTD INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...PERHAPS AS A RESPONSE TO THE WV PUSHING INTO THE WRN
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BIT OF WEAK RDGG OVER THE FCST AREA AND
IMPROVING WX. WITH THE CORE OF THE UPR LOW MVG SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HAVE LWRD POPS A BIT AND INCRSD TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR SHD
NOT BE OVHD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW OVER THE LWR GREAT LAKES IS PUSHING MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE
COOL LL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF CLDS AND PTCHY SHWRS. XPCT LTL CHG IN CONDS AS THE SFC WRM FNT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS WILL CONT. AFTER DARK AS WE BECOME MORE STABLE...CIGS WILL
LWR AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIG WITH PTCHY DRIZZLE. ATTME
XPCT VSBYS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON MON...ANOTHER WV APRCHS
WHICH WILL INCRS MIXING AND RAISE CIGS...BUT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...MVFR DUE TO CLD DECKS.

TUE...VFR.

WED-THU...SHWRS MAY BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

FRI...VFR

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K
SURFACES.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NORTHERN DACKS...AND THE NORTHERN GREENS. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CENTRAL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER
TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKNESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NORTHERN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NORTHERN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL VT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER
LOWS IN THE M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO
L60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL IS FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR IN
PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WINDS ARE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3-5 SM. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR
STRATUS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHERN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S
AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR
W/POSSIBLE IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
FROM LOW CEILINGS. TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS
WEDS AFTERNOON. THU: MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN
NY. FRI: VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011728
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE MORNING. TOO LOW THOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE
FORECASTS.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT.
THE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
IS POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011728
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND REMAINS JUST SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TONIGHT.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IS FORECAST. AT TIMES IT WILL BE DRY.

LOW CLOUDS...IFR OR LOW END MVFR...CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE AS WELL. IN FACT...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER IN THE MORNING. TOO LOW THOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE
FORECASTS.

WINDS FROM THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE NE/E TONIGHT.
THE WIND FORECAST ON MONDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TOWARD THE E/SE IN THE MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON...IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH END MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
IS POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING SHOWER.
.MON NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN MORE RAIN LATE.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.
.TUE NIGHT-FRI...SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011728
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z
4KM NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN
MCV 24 HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN
FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD
IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 011725
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATOFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THIER TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROFING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS
DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA IN
THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SETTLED JUST
WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION REMAINS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS THE
RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPRLAYERS...AND
GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAYERS AND WEAK
LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY AREAS INTO
MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THIER SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTANT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
101 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS THERE ARE 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN CT.

WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MANY TO DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 011621
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS FROM ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS
WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS 60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011534
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1134 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE EASTERN FA THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY LEFT BEHIND. GRID UPDATES REFLECT A
PERIOD OF LESS COVERAGE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FILLING
IN LATER.

4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES, BASICALLY ON THE
FORWARD SIDE OF A BIG OMEGA BLOCK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION, ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

AS A RESULT OF THE WHAT WAS JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE`LL CONTINUE
WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST (MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCE-
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY) RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN
"ALL-DAY WASHOUT" WOULD BE UNLIKELY ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR-IFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING A BIT LONGER. EVEN AT THESE TWO
SITES, THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 14-16Z, COULD
PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING
BASES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KITH WILL PROBABLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, AS STEADIER
RAIN RE-DEVELOPS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS OUR AREA AND MORE RAIN
UPSTREAM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN
IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM
RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE
21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU:MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWALTER INDICES FALL DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT.

LIGHT ESE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS
AS THEY BACK TO THE EAST.

A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS TO
START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z...FROM WEST TO
EAST.

RAIN BECOMES LIGHT AND SPOTTY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011420
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF RAIN IS NOW CLEARING THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 11Z WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION NEAR
LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF
LOWER END MVFR FOR MOST SITES WITH IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH NOON WITH SOME
DRY TIME OUTSIDE OF STRAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR A STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS
MAY IMPACT KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 011332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
932 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING IN MOST ARES.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT SUNDAY...RAIN IS MOVING IN AND SHOULD BE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION BETWEEN 8 A.M. AND NOON. IT WILL BE
CLOUDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM NY.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN IS
BEING FORCED BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS.

THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
RAINFALL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS BTWN 12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM
RAINSHIELD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE
21Z/SUN TO 01Z/MON TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
TUE - WED:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS AFTERNOON.
THU:MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN NY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...WASULA/SISSON
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS MORNING...THEN E THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS.
A FEW GUSTS 16-19 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS UP TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS PROBABLY
HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES, BASICALLY ON THE
FORWARD SIDE OF A BIG OMEGA BLOCK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION, ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

AS A RESULT OF THE WHAT WAS JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE`LL CONTINUE
WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST (MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCE-
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY) RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN
"ALL-DAY WASHOUT" WOULD BE UNLIKELY ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR-IFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING A BIT LONGER. EVEN AT THESE TWO
SITES, THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 14-16Z, COULD
PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING
BASES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KITH WILL PROBABLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, AS STEADIER
RAIN RE-DEVELOPS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF RAIN IS NOW CLEARING THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 11Z WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION NEAR
LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO A
MIX OF LOWER END OF MVFR FOR MOST SITES WITH IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRY TIME OUTSIDE OF
STRAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR A STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS
MAY IMPACT KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KALY 011055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND PASSES
SOUTH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE DAMP...COOL...AND WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND PA INTO ERN NY THIS MORNING. THE COLUMN
CONTINUES TO SATURATE WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY REACHING THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY...WRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS BASED ON THE LATEST
REGIONAL AND KENX RADARS...AND SFC OBSERVATIONS.

THIS UPDATE HAS ADJUSTED THE HOURLY POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS ARE USED FROM
ROUGHLY NOONTIME INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE PM BASED ON
THE LATEST HRRR.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

IT WILL BE VERY COOL AND DAMP TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE STRATIFORM RAIN COOLED AIR. QUITE A
CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR. IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE THE DAY WITH
DRIZZLE DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT REMAINS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KPOU. WINDS WILL LIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011032
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
632 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS THERE TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT DUE TO
SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN UNCHANGED...LASTING
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 010858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED AND THE TIMING OF
SYSTEM UNCERTAIN.

A LULL IN THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORT WAVES...HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DAMP. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN SUCH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.

AS ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES COME INTO PLAY THE
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
OCCURRING AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS NEAR ERIE AT 09Z
WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHIFTING
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
OCCURRING AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS NEAR ERIE AT 09Z
WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHIFTING
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN SHIELD APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE 00Z/SUN ALY AND OKX SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN TODAY WITH A SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF
ENERGY...BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...MOVE EASTWARD.

OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE
IS AGREEMENT THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME INTERMITTENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

WILL BE VERY COOL/CHILLY TODAY WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DAMP...WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS ITS HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY AND VEGETATION IS
GREENING UP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH.
ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010831
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES, BASICALLY ON THE
FORWARD SIDE OF A BIG OMEGA BLOCK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION, ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

AS A RESULT OF THE WHAT WAS JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE`LL CONTINUE
WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST (MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCE-
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY) RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN
"ALL-DAY WASHOUT" WOULD BE UNLIKELY ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING. EVEN AT THESE TWO SITES,
THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS 12Z, COULD PRODUCE
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING BASES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND N-CNTRL VT THIS MORNING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM W-CNTRL NY AND PA.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS INDICATES PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA BTWN 12Z-16Z.
INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE.
THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN
12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO
01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT
THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/NEILES
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010809
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT ASTHE
TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE THU AS
A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING. EVEN AT THESE TWO SITES,
THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS 12Z, COULD PRODUCE
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING BASES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010807 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SHOWALTER INDICES FALL
DOWN TO BETWEEN 0 AND 2 THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE SW 2/5 OF
THE CWA...SO HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY ELEVATED STORMS.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN
UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDE ALONG THIS STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THEN
IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO OVER RUNNING/LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE RAINFALL
AND ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY THE AREA IN WSW-SW FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MAINLY LAY S OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY ON MONDAY...WHEN THERE IS NOW ENOUGH
SUPPORT IN THE VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS TO BELIEVE IT SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT IS NOT
CERTAIN...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THEY WILL PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY DURING THE DAY THAN AT NIGHT...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WHEN THERE ARE EXPECTED
LULLS IN PRECIPITATION. ALSO...SHOWALTER INDICES FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO GENERALLY -2 TO 2.

ON THE WHOLE GENERALLY EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH LULLS OF MAINLY PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING...AND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS
GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOTE...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA...THEN HIGHS COULD END UP 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON W-NW INTO NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM
950-925 HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE AND NAM AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OFF A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL
BE ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS
USED...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW BEING FORECAST...AS THE HANDLING OF THIS TYPE
OF FEATURE IS NOT THE GREATEST STRENGTH OF CURRENT NWP MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BACK TOWARDS ESE THIS
MORNING...THEN E THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z ALTHOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN. VFR CONDS TO START...EVENTUALLY
LOWERING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS... BECOMING
NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS PROBABLY HOVER AROUND 5 FT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NIGHT DUE TO SWELL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE SCA ON THE OCEAN
UNCHANGED...LASTING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A GUST OR TWO UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN SOUND OR BAYS...BUT NOT WORTH CONSIDERATION OF A SCA.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT SEAS COULD CLIMB TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT TIMES DUE TO A SWELL. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE SCA AT THIS TIME.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. WHILE WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS TIME...SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS OVER 5 FT...PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
1/4-1/2 AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THOSE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010628
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
228 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF ON THE BACK EDGE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY SLIPPING INTO THE 40S.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE
M/U50S FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE
CROSSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE
LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
LARGE- SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
IN TURN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010608
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADARS SHOW RAIN SPREADING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
IN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS AND SPC ANALYSIS ALIKE SHOW A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO. THIS ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS LEADING TO ENHANCED WARM
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HENCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
OUT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THIS RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 10Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDES
INTO PA AND NY BY 12Z. WE REFINED THE ONSET TIMING OF THE RAIN
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PATTERNS. WE LOOKED AT THE HRRR, THE NSSL WRF- ARW
1KM, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND WRF-NMMB AND THE 1 KM NAM NEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE RAIN TO REACH STEUBEN CO BY 4Z OR SO AND TO A
PIKE CO-BGM-PEO LINE BY 6Z AND TO RME-MSV AROUND 11Z. WE ADJUSTED
THIS UP 1 HOUR BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING A LITTLE SOONER THAN ALL THESE HI RES MODELS. SO HAVE
PRECIP REACHING STEUBEN CO BY 3Z ...BGM-PEO BY 5Z AND RME- MSV BY
9-10Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT ASTHE
TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE THU AS
A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING. EVEN AT THESE TWO SITES,
THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS 12Z, COULD PRODUCE
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING BASES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010608
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADARS SHOW RAIN SPREADING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
IN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS AND SPC ANALYSIS ALIKE SHOW A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO. THIS ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS LEADING TO ENHANCED WARM
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HENCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
OUT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THIS RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 10Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDES
INTO PA AND NY BY 12Z. WE REFINED THE ONSET TIMING OF THE RAIN
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PATTERNS. WE LOOKED AT THE HRRR, THE NSSL WRF- ARW
1KM, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND WRF-NMMB AND THE 1 KM NAM NEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE RAIN TO REACH STEUBEN CO BY 4Z OR SO AND TO A
PIKE CO-BGM-PEO LINE BY 6Z AND TO RME-MSV AROUND 11Z. WE ADJUSTED
THIS UP 1 HOUR BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING A LITTLE SOONER THAN ALL THESE HI RES MODELS. SO HAVE
PRECIP REACHING STEUBEN CO BY 3Z ...BGM-PEO BY 5Z AND RME- MSV BY
9-10Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT ASTHE
TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE THU AS
A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING. EVEN AT THESE TWO SITES,
THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS 12Z, COULD PRODUCE
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING BASES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ




000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE DAMP...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SOME ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THE
RAIN WILL REALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME UPPER 30S. WIND WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
AT ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55
VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE ONSET OF THE
STEADY RAIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER STILL BE MVFR WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
THE STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT BY LATE
THE DAY WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE FOR THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010542
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT SUNDAY...CURRENTLY BACKING UP WFO BTV. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT.  NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY
GOOD.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN
12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO
01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT
THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10
KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010524
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
124 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY... WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD MORNING.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST DRIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

SE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT OVERNIGHT WILL BACK SE-E THIS MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z. IFR CONDS
EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010331
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WAA DOES NOT COMMENCE
IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARD
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BACK SE-E SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW
GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
IFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010331
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WAA DOES NOT COMMENCE
IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARD
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BACK SE-E SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW
GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
IFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010331
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WAA DOES NOT COMMENCE
IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARD
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BACK SE-E SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW
GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
IFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010331
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1131 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY...
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WAA DOES NOT COMMENCE
IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA WARM FRONT
WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TOWARD
MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 35-40
OVER MOST OF SRN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...TO THE
MID 40S IN AND AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT WILL BACK SE-E SUNDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 10 KT AT MOST TERMINALS. A FEW
GUSTS 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 11Z-14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
IFR CONDS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...RAIN WITH IFR CONDS. E WINDS...
BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WED-THU...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHOWERS AND
FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A WARM FRONT. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY
GOOD.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 PM EDT SATURDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO AS PRECIP ARRIVES TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME VIRGA AND AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND MORE CLOUDS. ALSO...HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP BY
SEVERAL HOURS...AS CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN
ALREADY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN NY/PA. USING THE HRRR
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS...THINKING LIGHT RAIN REACHES WESTERN
CWA BETWEEN 09-11Z...AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z-
14Z..AND INTO MOST OF VT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS REALLY
GOOD.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN EDGING NORTH TOWARD
WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. RAIN HAS STARTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AS OF 02Z/10PM... AND IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG A BUF-ROC
LINE...THEN OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT THE
ONSET OF RAIN WILL COOL THE AIR THROUGH EVAPORATION AND LOWER THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT A COOLER EASTERLY WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...GENERALLY 02Z-04Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO 04Z- 06Z BUF-ROC AND ABOUT 08Z FOR HE NORTH
COUNTRY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
LOWER FURTHER TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS
THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY AND DESTABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 010229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO VERY SLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY HIGH ONES. RAIN...LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WORKING INTO SW NY...CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING INTO PA. WHILE THIS FIRST WAVE WILL
ACTUALLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND EASTERLY INFLOW TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH.

THE WIND WAS VARIABLE TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S AND 40S.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER.

THE RAIN ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...WITH
A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR
REGION. THEN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AMOUNTING
TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT
ALL...TOPPING OUT ONLY 45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...50-55 VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND PREVIOUS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WARM FRONT ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TOWARDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNING TUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TOWARD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE REGION TUES EVENING.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MORNING E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH
THE TERMINALS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 010215
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RADARS SHOW RAIN SPREADING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
IN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADEVECTION. MODELS AND SPC ANALYSIS ALIKE SHOW A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO. THIS ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS LEADING TO ENHANCED WARM
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HENCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
OUT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THIS RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 10Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDES INTO PA AND NY BY 12Z. WE REFINED THE ONSET TIMING OF THE
RAIN BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PATTERNS. WE LOOKED AT THE HRRR, THE NSSL WRF- ARW
1KM, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND WRF-NMMB AND THE 1 KM NAM NEST.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE RAIN TO REACH STEUBEN CO BY 4Z OR SO
AND TO A PIKE CO-BGM-PEO LINE BY 6Z AND TO RME-MSV AROUND 11Z. WE
ADJUSTED THIS UP 1 HOUR BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE THE
RIAN ARRIVING A LITTLE SOONER THAN ALL THESE HI RES MODELS. SO
HAVE PRECIP REACHING STEUBEN CO BY 3Z ...BGM-PEO BY 5Z AND RME-
MSV BY 9-10Z.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT AAS
THE TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE
THU AS A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELYHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST STEADIEST RAIN WILL
FALL SUNDAY MORNING... THEN THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER
TO MAINLY MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED/THU...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
825 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN EDGING NORTH TOWARD
WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO START ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG A
BUF-ROC LINE...AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS
AT THE ONSET OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE
40S

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT A COOLER EASTERLY WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...GENERALLY 02Z-04Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO 04Z- 06Z BUF-ROC AND ABOUT 08Z FOR HE NORTH
COUNTRY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
LOWER FURTHER TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS
THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY AND DESTABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
825 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN EDGING NORTH TOWARD
WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO START ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG A
BUF-ROC LINE...AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS
AT THE ONSET OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE
40S

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT A COOLER EASTERLY WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...GENERALLY 02Z-04Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO 04Z- 06Z BUF-ROC AND ABOUT 08Z FOR HE NORTH
COUNTRY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
LOWER FURTHER TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS
THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY AND DESTABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KALY 010001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM...CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION...SO
FAR...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME LOWER STRATUS CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

IT WAS STILL MILD OUT WITH MANY VALLEYS ENJOYING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60...MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WAS LIGHT TO NORTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY WITH A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SLIP THROUGH
THE 50S.

OVERNIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN.
RAIN...WHICH WAS STILL LOCATED WELL TO SOUTHWEST IN WESTERN
PA...WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYWHERE
ELSE IN OUR REGION.


THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY MIDDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA (FA) WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN
INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL ENCROACH THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE EARLIER...SO WE ASSIGNED
A VCSH TO THE TAFS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z.

BY 14Z-15Z WE REDUCE ALL FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS WE EXPECTED
PERIODS OF RAIN AT ALL THE TERMINALS BY THEN. THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE
FOR OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO IFR (MAINLY CIGS) BUT FOR NOW HELD
CONDITIONS TO MVFR (LOW MVFR AT KPSF REQUIRING EXTRA FUEL).

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302342
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
742 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
235 PM UPDATE...
A MID-ATMOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE SHOOTING OVER A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.

A SOLID WALL OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER BETWEEN 6Z AND 7Z, THEN SPREAD TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
8Z AND 9Z. OVER A HALF-INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL BY SUNRISE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FA.

1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT AAS
THE TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE
THU AS A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELYHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST STEADIEST RAIN WILL
FALL SUNDAY MORNING... THEN THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER
TO MAINLY MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5
TO 15 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED/THU...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 713 PM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY A MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS. LATE
AFTERNOON VIS SATL PICS SHOW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING INTO OUR
NORTHERN NY ZONES...WITH VERY DRY SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY MID-
MORNING ON SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING CURRENT FORECAST OF UPPER
20S TO UPPER 30S LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL FINE TUNE WITH NEXT UPDATE
LATER THIS EVENING.

MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH
COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL
DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KOKX 302316
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
716 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
HOURLY TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND SKY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS LATE TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WAA DOES NOT
COMMENCE IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS TO THE MID 40S IN AND
AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS 8-12 KT BEHIND SEA BREEZES. AT INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES...WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE E-SE SUNDAY
MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONDS
DO NOT FALL TO MVFR UNTIL 14-16Z. RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONDS FALL TO IFR...MAINLY AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RA. E
WINDS...BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RA IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
-SHRA/FOG/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5 FT. THE OVERALL TREND SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN DOWN SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA THIS EVENING.
HAVE NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR
LESS SEAS/WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT. HAVE ISSUED AN SCA BEGINNING NOON SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FOR THE
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE BAYS.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...DS/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, THEN DETERIORATING
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR REST OF SUNDAY IN STEADY LIGHT RAIN AND
STRATUS.

HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BUT WITH
STEADILY LOWERING VFR CEILINGS. WINDS NORTH 5-8 KTS BUT BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHIELD TO THEN BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAFS THROUGH
SUNDAY. INITIAL VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5-6 SM IN RAIN, WITH
STEADIER 3 SM RAIN TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS 1.5-2.5 KFT MAINLY IN THE STEADIER
RAIN ALSO OBSCURING MTNS. INITIAL LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 4-8 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 301952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINNINGTUESDAY.
BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE PORTIONS OF
FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL STALL...AND
NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL AREAS MAY
SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN TUES EVNG.
LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY MAY AS A LARGE
CUTOFF AND RETROGRADING LOW BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH A SPRAWLING LONGWAVE TROUGH FEATURING SEVERAL
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. COMBINED WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVELENGTH PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA...THESE PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SHEAR OFF AND
CLOSE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS TYPICALLY COMMON FOR THE SPRING
MONTHS...ALTHOUGH MORE COMMON DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL.

REGARDLESS...THIS CLOSED OFF AND RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
CONCENTRATE STEADIER PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE STILL
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURES...SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...HAVE
TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE BLENDS.

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK TO RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GLOOMY
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY MAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN WITH MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THERE IS HOPE IN THE FAR
EXTENDED OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL FEATURE RISING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO MORE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. RA...DZ.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUES NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR
TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT LIGHT AND CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z WILL SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WILL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS
STILL REAPING THE BENEFITS OF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH PROVIDING NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT BRISK OUT OF THE
NORTH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT WHERE LINGERING CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS CLOUDS INCREASE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF. LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM 18Z - 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
DEEP MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS VORTICITY ADVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PERHAPS JUST A
COUPLE 60 DEGREE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF
PROGS AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AREA WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT
NORTHEAST WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING DESPITE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24- 36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING
HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR
TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT LIGHT AND CEILINGS REMAIN
VFR. AFTER 18Z WILL SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS LATE TONIGHT. SFC HIGH
MOVES EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WAA DOES NOT
COMMENCE IN EARNEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND LIFT ABOVE H8 HPA
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAIN APPROACHING FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS
TOWARD MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS TO THE MID 40S IN AND
AROUND NYC METRO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS
IT MOVES EAST...AND SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AS PARENT LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE AT NIGHT.

DEEPEST MOISTURE NOTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO LOWER
COVERAGE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

THEN...SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF UPPER JET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD RESULT IN RETURN TO RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY VIA PROFILES/SHOWALTER FCST
INDICES.

WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS...TEMPS REMAIN QUITE COOL...WELL
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH/S SUNDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 50S...WITH
POSSIBLE 40S IN SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...FAIRLY POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WITH
STRONGEST LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY DRYING OUT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE
DAYS END AND TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AS DEEP
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM CONTINUES TO SEND PIECES OF ENERGY
DIVING DOWN INTO THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ACTING ON THE STALLED FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN APPROX 130 KT UPPER JET. HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF SOME RAIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER IF FUTURE GUIDANCE
BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO. POPS DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD.

LOW CONFIDENCE  FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE TIME FRAME SIGNALED BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR BEST CHANCE AT PRECIP. CUTOFF LOWS HAVE A LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FORECAST SKILL...SO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO AVERAGE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHEN RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

S-SE WINDS 8-12 KT BEHIND SEA BREEZES. AT INLAND TERMINALS AWAY FROM
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES...WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRB.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE E-SE SUNDAY
MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. -RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONDS
DO NOT FALL TO MVFR UNTIL 14-16Z. RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONDS FALL TO IFR...MAINLY AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RA. E
WINDS...BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RA IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
-SHRA/FOG/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
PESKY OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET DUE TO SWELL.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA ONCE AGAIN INTO THE EVENING. NON OCEAN
WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN. LESS LIKELY FOR THE LONG ISLAND SOUND.

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WATERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
HOWEVER REMAIN RATHER ROUGH.

SCA OCEAN SEAS MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE OF THE WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING
SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND 1/2-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AROUND A QUARTER OF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE
ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES...IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SHRINKING
WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG WING OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 00Z...AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE
WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGING ON THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL LIFTING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301852
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
252 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE
ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES...IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SHRINKING
WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG WING OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 00Z...AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE
WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGING ON THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL LIFTING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS
FOR OUR REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND
THIS WILL EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...THEN THE
FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SYSTEM
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW WILL STALL OR SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN LOCK ONTO MORE
DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
235 PM UPDATE...
A MID-ATMOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE SHOOTING OVER A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.

A SOLID WALL OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER BETWEEN 6Z AND 7Z, THEN SPREAD TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
8Z AND 9Z. OVER A HALF-INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL BY SUNRISE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FA.

1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT AAS
THE TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE
THU AS A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELYHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING RME AND
SYR...OTRW HTG HAS FILLED THE SC DECK BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA.
XPCT THE VFR DECK TO CONT THRU THE AFTN BEFORE ERODING SOMEWHAT
THIS EVE. WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGHER VFR DECK AHD OF A STRONG
WV APRCHG FROM THE OH VLY FOR SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
SHARP FNT END TO THE RAIN AFT 06Z...MVG FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EARLY MRNG HRS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK
DVLPG A CPL HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE RAIN...WHICH CONTS THRU THE
END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED/THU...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301847
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
235 PM UPDATE...
A MID-ATMOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE SHOOTING OVER A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS
WILL CAUSE AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.

A SOLID WALL OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER BETWEEN 6Z AND 7Z, THEN SPREAD TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
8Z AND 9Z. OVER A HALF-INCH OF RAIN SHOULD FALL BY SUNRISE OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN FA.

1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT AAS
THE TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE
THU AS A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELYHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING RME AND
SYR...OTRW HTG HAS FILLED THE SC DECK BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA.
XPCT THE VFR DECK TO CONT THRU THE AFTN BEFORE ERODING SOMEWHAT
THIS EVE. WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGHER VFR DECK AHD OF A STRONG
WV APRCHG FROM THE OH VLY FOR SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
SHARP FNT END TO THE RAIN AFT 06Z...MVG FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EARLY MRNG HRS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK
DVLPG A CPL HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE RAIN...WHICH CONTS THRU THE
END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED/THU...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
237 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT MORE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THEN WE HAD FORECASTED. ALSO BLOWING OFF THE
LAKE IN PLATTSBURGH. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...STILL SUNNY AND TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO
WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF HIGHER
POPS A BRIEF LULL IN DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION ON
THE INTERMITTENT/LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG
POSSIBLE WITH THE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. RATHER UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE PULL
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVING THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER WPC/BLENDED QPF PROGS AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED UNDER GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. DID OPT TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE
OFFERING NEAR STEADY READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AREA
WIDE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ON TRACK TO EXIT NORTHEAST
WITH STEADIER PCPN ENDING DESPITE LINGERING CLOUDS AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE ONE MAINLY DRY 24-
36 HOUR PERIOD OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MODERATING HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
BY TUESDAY IN THE 58 TO 65 RANGE WITH SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING`S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT`S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FURTHER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 301820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 301820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER AS THE RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER MANY HOURS...AND COMBINED
WITH RECENT DRYNESS...VEGETATION GREENING ONLY WITHIN BANK RISES
ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
204 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT SATURDAY...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT MORE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THEN WE HAD FORECASTED. ALSO BLOWING OFF THE
LAKE IN PLATTSBURGH. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...STILL SUNNY AND TEMPS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO
WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. MAINLY SKC TODAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 5000-8000
FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WILL SEE
CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER FURTHER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301749
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
149 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT AAS
THE TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE
THU AS A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELYHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING RME AND
SYR...OTRW HTG HAS FILLED THE SC DECK BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA.
XPCT THE VFR DECK TO CONT THRU THE AFTN BEFORE ERODING SOMEWHAT
THIS EVE. WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGHER VFR DECK AHD OF A STRONG
WV APRCHG FROM THE OH VLY FOR SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FAIRLY
SHARP FNT END TO THE RAIN AFT 06Z...MVG FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE EARLY MRNG HRS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A WIDESPREAD MVFR DECK
DVLPG A CPL HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE RAIN...WHICH CONTS THRU THE
END OF THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED/THU...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 301735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT WILL BE A WET AND VERY COOL START TO THE MONTH OF MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WAS OVER THE FA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301735
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AS RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...SC
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GENERALLY EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST...AND MID 60S INTERIOR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES WILL MOVE THROUGH COASTAL
TERMINALS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE S AT 8-12 KT.

WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE E-SE SUNDAY
MORNING AT 5-10 KT.

-RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONDS DO NOT FALL TO MVFR UNTIL
14-16Z. RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONDS FALL TO
IFR...MAINLY AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...IFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RA. E
WINDS...BECOMING NW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN RA IN THE MORNING...THEN VFR.
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN
-SHRA/FOG/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...22Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301730
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES THERE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE WIND COMPONENT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES
IN CANADIAN WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
NOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK ACROSS THE LAKES.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301730
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES THERE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE WIND COMPONENT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES
IN CANADIAN WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
NOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK ACROSS THE LAKES.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301718
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW YORK
LATE SUNDAY...AND STEADILY INTENSIFY MONDAY ALONG THE COAST. IT
WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO START THE WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT TO THE COAST THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
THREAT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
OVER THIS PERIOD THE FLAT WSW 500 HPA FLOW ACROSS EASTERN USA GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER N ONTARIO WITH A TROF TO ITS
SOUTH.  VARIOUS SHORT WVS MOVING IN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DRIVE
CYCLOGENISUS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...TIED TO EACH OF THESE
FEATURES. THROUGH TUES NT THE NAM/GFSGEM AND PVS ECMWF ARE FAIRLY
MUCH IN AGREEMENT.

SUN NT WILL BE THE LULL IN THE PCPN...AS MAJOR 500HPA SHORT WAVE
IS STILL OUT NR CHICAGO...SFC LOW IS IN MIDWEST AND WMFNTS ARE IN
ST LAWRENCE VLY...AND ALONG NJ CST. WITH LITTLE DYNAMICS FORCING
CLOUDS...SCT -SHRA AND MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.

BY LATE SUN NT...THIS SHORT WV AND ITS SFC LOW WILL PUSH INTO E
GRTLKS AND A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE I90 TWRDS
BOSTON...SLIDING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS PCPN TAPERS OFF TO
-SHRA.

WHILE THE GUID SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN MEAN LAYERS THE
GENERAL ABSENCE OF MUCH FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS SLOWLY THINING
TUESDAY. BUT MORE OR LESS A DRY DAY IN MOST AREAS EXCPT IN SE
PORTIONS OF FCA WHERE TRAILING CDFNT FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL
STALL...AND NEXT SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AS NEXT SHORT WV
ROUNDS THE BASE OF 500 HPA TROF...AND HEADS TWRD THE NE USA. ALL
AREAS MAY SEE SCT -SHRA AS THE 500 HPA SHORT WV CROSSES THE RGN
TUES EVNG. LATE TUES NT THE NEXT SHORT WV AND SFC LOW PAIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE GRTLKS AND PUSH -SHRA INTO AREAS N&W OF ALBANY BY
DAYBREAK.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH COOL WET CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TEMPS BLO
NORMAL THEN REBOUNDING TO NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE SHOWERY PCPN. IF
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE IT WILL BE TUES AFTN AND EARLY WED
MRNG E. WITH GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MDLS THE SUPERBLEND
SHOULD COVER GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301619
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR OUR REGION TO GET STUCK ON THE DAMP
COOL NORTHERN END OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT
THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS COMMON THIS MORNING. LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW END VFR CIG. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK
WILL TEND SCATTER...A HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT
AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. WITH THE MOISTENING FROM THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN FOR KBGM- KELM AND POSSIBLY OTHERS TOWARDS DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301619
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR OUR REGION TO GET STUCK ON THE DAMP
COOL NORTHERN END OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT
THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS COMMON THIS MORNING. LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW END VFR CIG. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK
WILL TEND SCATTER...A HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT
AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. WITH THE MOISTENING FROM THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN FOR KBGM- KELM AND POSSIBLY OTHERS TOWARDS DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KALY 301611
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1211 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA. IT WAS A MILD MID DAY FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACHES AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY LOOK TO BE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 18 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR BTWN 13Z AND 15Z AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT
TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN REACHING A TAF SITE BEFORE
12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT
09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN
AND THEN LOWER AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STARTS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z TO ARND
2.5 KFT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3-7 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301554
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AS RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...SC
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GENERALLY EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST...AND MID 60S INTERIOR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY THROUGH KBDR. FOR MOST OTHER
TERMINALS...WINDS WILL RANGE FROM N TO NE...AND WILL TURN S BEHIND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
8-12 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...22Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301554
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AS RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...SC
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND GENERALLY EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
COAST...AND MID 60S INTERIOR. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL AREAS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY THROUGH KBDR. FOR MOST OTHER
TERMINALS...WINDS WILL RANGE FROM N TO NE...AND WILL TURN S BEHIND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
8-12 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...22Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SC CLOUDS ERODING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THINGS DRY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
AT COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEA BREEZE IS ALREADY THROUGH KBDR. FOR MOST OTHER
TERMINALS...WINDS WILL RANGE FROM N TO NE...AND WILL TURN S BEHIND
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
8-12 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL HOVER AROUND 5
FEET. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR NOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
16Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR
LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
PROVIDE SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EDT SATURDAY...NO CHANGES FOR 1030 AM UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD
SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO
WE`LL BE CLOSE TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO 5000-8000 FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301423
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1023 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION... HOWEVER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES THERE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH 20Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z ONWARDS AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ENSURE THIS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20
KTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4FT ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WIND COMPONENT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES IN CANADIAN
WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FT ON LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301423
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1023 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION... HOWEVER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES THERE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH 20Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z ONWARDS AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ENSURE THIS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20
KTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4FT ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WIND COMPONENT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES IN CANADIAN
WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FT ON LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301326
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
926 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SC CLOUDS ERODING THIS MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS...ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING
THINGS DRY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
AT COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL HOVER AROUND 5
FEET. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR NOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
16Z. NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN TRANQUIL...LIGHT WINDS AND 1 FT OR
LESS SEAS/WAVES.

A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO 10
KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 301320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS A FAIRLY MILD
MORNING FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MAINE
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS A FAIRLY MILD
MORNING FOR LATE APRIL WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
PROVIDE SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START TODAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH
THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS
AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY. NORMAL HIGH AT BTV IS NOW 61 DEGREES SO WE`LL BE CLOSE
TO THAT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS
20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
TODAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN CANADA.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT BUT REMAINING VFR WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO 5000-8000 FT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301131
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
731 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301131
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
731 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301059
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR OUR REGION TO GET STUCK ON THE DAMP
COOL NORTHERN END OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT
THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS COMMON THIS MORNING. LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW END VFR CIG. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK
WILL TEND SCATTER...A HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT
AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. WITH THE MOISTENING FROM THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN FOR KBGM- KELM AND POSSIBLY OTHERS TOWARDS DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301059
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
659 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR OUR REGION TO GET STUCK ON THE DAMP
COOL NORTHERN END OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT
THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS COMMON THIS MORNING. LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW END VFR CIG. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK
WILL TEND SCATTER...A HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT
AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. WITH THE MOISTENING FROM THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN FOR KBGM- KELM AND POSSIBLY OTHERS TOWARDS DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301052
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY BUT CLOUDY START TO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY /FOR THOSE WHO PREFER THEIR WEEKENDS SUNNY/ A LAYER OF
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB
FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES THERE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN
VFR CIGS AROUND 3500-4000FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE DRIER AIR IS KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR. THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL FRI EVENING
AND WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO BE
FOUND. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE
CIGS LIFT AND FOG DISSIPATES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT. DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING CIGS TO SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z
FROM KIAG-KROC-KFZY...HOWEVER EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z ONWARDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN
WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ENSURE THIS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
20KTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4FT ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WIND COMPONENT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES IN CANADIAN
WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FT ON LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KALY 301051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WET AND VERY COOL START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING
OVER THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 3.5-7 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN
IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS. THE CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THE BEST CHC OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS REACHING ANY TAF SITE BEFORE 12Z/SUN WILL BE KPOU...AND A
VCSH GROUP WAS USED STARTED AT 09Z/01. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LOWER
TO 3.5-6 KFT AGL AFTER 05Z/SUN.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
631 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301031
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
631 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT THE OCEAN BUOYS REMAIN BETWEEN 5-6 FT. 6Z WAVEWATCH III
DATA CAPTURES IMPACT OF PERSISTENT SE SWELLS FAIRLY WELL...AND HAS
SEAS DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL NOON/16Z TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON
THE OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT
GUSTS ON THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300916
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
516 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A DRY BUT CLOUDY START TO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
ATTENDANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY /FOR THOSE WHO PREFER THEIR WEEKENDS SUNNY/ A LAYER OF
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB
FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH
OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT
OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES HERE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS RESULTING IN
VFR CIGS AROUND 3500-4000FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE DRIER AIR IS KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLEAR. THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS PARTICULARLY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL FRI EVENING
AND WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO BE
FOUND. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE
CIGS LIFT AND FOG DISSIPATES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT. DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING CIGS TO SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z
FROM KIAG-KROC-KFZY...HOWEVER EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z ONWARDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN
WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ENSURE THIS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
20KTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4FT ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WIND COMPONENT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES IN CANADIAN
WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK
ACROSS THE LAKES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FT ON LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KALY 300911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
511 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COOL AND WET START TO MAY.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS SHORT WAVES APPROACH
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE PAINS WILL APPROACH WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM`S WARM FRONT SHOULD NOT LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BUT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IF SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEAR LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING AND MOVING OVER THE
REGION. EITHER WAY IT WILL BE WET AND COOL AS THE MAIN LOW
PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH ENERGY SHIFTING TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REST WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE THE DRY AND WARMER DAY OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TODAY BETWEEN SHORT
WAVES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE 60S ARE EXPETCED IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS DRY...AND THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY WET
AND UNSETTLED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY...AND A CUTOFF LOW IMPACTING THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.

TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAIR AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.  THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PASSING CLOSE TO LONG ISLAND FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
SHOWERS. FAIR AND DRY WX IS EXPECTED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...A DIGGING NRN STREAM H500 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
S/SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH A SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW NEAR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH...AND A SFC COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO M40S WITH SOME U30S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
VARIES SOME ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD H500 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS WED...WHICH IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS
ENOUGH SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE NRN STREAM
H500 TROUGH FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TUE.

WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED WED NIGHT INTO THU FOR A COASTAL LOW TO FORM NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION.  THE ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF AND WRN
ATLANTIC FOR SCT SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST WED NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
THU.  POPS WERE HELD IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TO LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
LIKELY THU-THU NIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION YIELDING PERIODS OF RAIN.  THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES VARY A BIT IN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT LATE THU
INTO THU NIGHT THE H500 LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE PA/NY BORDER.  SCT SHOWERS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  THE CUTOFF LOOKS TO HANG AROUND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERY AND COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST...AS THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES MORE APRIL THAN MAY.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE U30S TO M40S...WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO U60S OVER THE
FCST AREA TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
FORECAST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S
ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...WITH VALUES OTHERWISE MAINLY IN THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE RAIN
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300826
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...STALLING OUT TO THE SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SLIDES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
KEEPING THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO ONLY GOING FOR
PARTLY TO AT BEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...CONSISTENT
WITH A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THE
SEABREEZE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...HOW FAST IT DOES SO WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST RAIN MOVES
INTO THE TRI-STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINDFUL THAT THE GFS HAS A BIAS
OF BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYERED RIDGING MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...LEANED TOWARDS SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. KEPT FAR
EASTERN AREAS DRY...AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR WESTERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

00Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK THE LOW S
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY. THE CMC DOES THIS...IT JUST TRACKS THE LOW
TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND MUCH FASTER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO NOT HAVE A FRONT MOVE FAR ENOUGH S
MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THIS IS BECAUSE IT IS FARTHER N
THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THEY TRANSIT THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY. THE 00Z CMC TAKES THE FRONT ABOUT AS FAR S AS THE
NON 00Z-ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT
DID NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z ECMWF OR CMC-GLOBAL IN THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER DID USE THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
AS IT WAS MORE CONSISTENT WITH REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL SUITE.

AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NE. ALSO WITH THE REGION
PROGGED TO HAVE SHOWALTERS OF -2 TO 2 FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND TO BE IN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ON MONDAY...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BE OF AN ELEVATED NATURE.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...A BLEND OF MAV/MET/12Z ECS GUIDANCE...00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950
HPA WAS USED PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF 12Z ECS/00Z
MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF MIX DOWN FROM 975-900 HPA...00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...AND A MIXTURE OF 00Z MAV/MET AND 12Z ECS GUIDANCE.

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT...SO IT SHOULD BE DRY. LOWS
WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/12Z ECE/ECM GUIDANCE.
LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH A 700-500 HPA
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION.

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TUESDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY. IN A SWITCH FROM THE 12Z RUNS...THE 00Z ECMWF NOW
ENDS UP WITH THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE N BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE GFS HAS IT TO OUR S. THE REASONS DEAL WITH DIFFERENCES IN
HANDLING A CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING DOWN ITS SW FLANK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY LIMITED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO SLIGHT
CHANCE...THEN POPS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (THIS IS THEN GENERAL TIME
FRAME WHEN REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION THE MODELS INDICATED THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN ALL SOLUTIONS) TO LOW END
CHANCE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS AMPLIFIED BY THE MODELS
FORECASTING CUTOFF LOWS...WHICH IS AN ITEM THEY ALL HAVE A LOWER
THAN AVERAGE SKILL AT FORECASTING.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY THE SUPER BLEND WAS USED. FOR NOW
FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF THE OCEAN WATERS
STILL HAVE SEAS AT 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS PAST THE CURRENT SCA
EXPIRATION TIME OF 10Z THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY TODAY AND WINDS SHOULDN`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND
WAVES OF 5 FT...SO WILL MAKE NO EXTENSIONS TO THE SCA AT THIS TIME.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

LOOKS LIKE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON THE
OCEAN...AND MAYBE FOR THE SOUND. A BETTER CHANCE FOR 25KT GUSTS ON
THE SOUND AND PERHAPS FOR THE HARBOR AND BAYS ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY NIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN MAINTAINS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

FROM AROUND 3/4-1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS A LOW RISK OF PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS FOR
AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300806
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR OUR REGION TO GET STUCK ON THE DAMP
COOL NORTHERN END OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT
THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-SHRA IS GONE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE MVFR CIGS COMMON FOR
THE REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR KSYR-KRME WHICH WILL INSTEAD HAVE CIGS HANG AT LOW END VFR.
KAVP-KBGM-KITH WILL EXPERIENCE FUEL ALT CIGS AT TIMES BUT IFR IS
UNLIKELY. LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER
OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A CIG WHILE ALSO
LIFTING INTO LOW END VFR. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK WILL TEND SCATTER...A
HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER
WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL
SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CLOSER TO 65
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE DRY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE IN
EARNEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
DEVELOP. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE STEADY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE AS A RESULT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
HOWEVER...ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN AS OF LATE. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AND
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDS TO CUTOFF OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. THUS LOOKING AT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR SURE AND POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
EXTENDED...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. &&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
BUT REMAINING VFR.  WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300743
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-SHRA IS GONE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE MVFR CIGS COMMON FOR
THE REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR KSYR-KRME WHICH WILL INSTEAD HAVE CIGS HANG AT LOW END VFR.
KAVP-KBGM-KITH WILL EXPERIENCE FUEL ALT CIGS AT TIMES BUT IFR IS
UNLIKELY. LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER
OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A CIG WHILE ALSO
LIFTING INTO LOW END VFR. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK WILL TEND SCATTER...A
HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER
WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300624
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY START
TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS OF 0230Z. WILL REDUCE AND ELIMINATE POPS FOR TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF A COOL RAINY DAY...CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
UPPER GENESEE VALLEY HAVE LEAD TO FORMATION OF LOW CLOUD DECK AND
AREAS OF FOG. HAVE UPDATED THAT AREA TO REFLECT THE CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH 12Z-13Z ON SATURDAY.

A DRY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE IN STORE BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE AS
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. CLEARING CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS... IN THE 30S TO LOW 30S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY... WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING.

ON SATURDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THE DRY FEED OF AIR
FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO ERODE AN INITIAL
SHOWERS THAT APPROACH THE REGION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND VIRGA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SOUTHWEST NY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL... WITH HIGHS
IN THE U50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK/
PENNSYLVANIA. A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
THIS FEATURE AND AN ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FORCING PEAKING OVER OUR REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT SLIDES OFF INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALONG WITH A SLUG OF RAIN WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BOOSTING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE PRETTY RESPECTABLE JUDGING
FROM A 12Z MODEL QPF CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AS MUCH AS A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...ALBEIT
ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...WITH THE RAIN THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THIS SECOND WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
AGAIN HELD BACK A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONSPIRE TO KEEP READINGS CONFINED TO THE MID
50S.

FINALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THIS PERIOD...WITH ATTENDANT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALSO LEADING TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO RIGHT
AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS MOSTLY WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40 MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WARM WEATHER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL EQUATE TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY MAY
VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE RAINFREE. THE BROAD BRUSH DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRUDGINGLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.

A LOOK FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT NEXT WEEKEND...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ARE MOVING INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE APPROACHING HIGH AND IS PRODUCING VFR CIGS AROUND
3500-4000FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS PARTICULARLY ACUTE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL FRI EVENING
AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG CAN BE FOUND. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND
FOG DISSIPATES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT. DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING CIGS TO SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z
FROM KIAG-KROC-KFZY...HOWEVER EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z ONWARDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN
WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ENSURE THIS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
20KTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4FT ON THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE LAKES
INT HE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300624
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY START
TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS OF 0230Z. WILL REDUCE AND ELIMINATE POPS FOR TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF A COOL RAINY DAY...CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
UPPER GENESEE VALLEY HAVE LEAD TO FORMATION OF LOW CLOUD DECK AND
AREAS OF FOG. HAVE UPDATED THAT AREA TO REFLECT THE CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH 12Z-13Z ON SATURDAY.

A DRY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE IN STORE BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE AS
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. CLEARING CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS... IN THE 30S TO LOW 30S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY... WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING.

ON SATURDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THE DRY FEED OF AIR
FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO ERODE AN INITIAL
SHOWERS THAT APPROACH THE REGION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND VIRGA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SOUTHWEST NY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL... WITH HIGHS
IN THE U50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK/
PENNSYLVANIA. A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
THIS FEATURE AND AN ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FORCING PEAKING OVER OUR REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT SLIDES OFF INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALONG WITH A SLUG OF RAIN WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BOOSTING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE PRETTY RESPECTABLE JUDGING
FROM A 12Z MODEL QPF CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AS MUCH AS A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...ALBEIT
ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...WITH THE RAIN THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THIS SECOND WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
AGAIN HELD BACK A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONSPIRE TO KEEP READINGS CONFINED TO THE MID
50S.

FINALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THIS PERIOD...WITH ATTENDANT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALSO LEADING TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO RIGHT
AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS MOSTLY WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40 MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WARM WEATHER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL EQUATE TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY MAY
VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE RAINFREE. THE BROAD BRUSH DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRUDGINGLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.

A LOOK FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT NEXT WEEKEND...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ARE MOVING INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE APPROACHING HIGH AND IS PRODUCING VFR CIGS AROUND
3500-4000FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS PARTICULARLY ACUTE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL FRI EVENING
AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FOG CAN BE FOUND. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND
FOG DISSIPATES.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LINGER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT. DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING CIGS TO SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME AFTER 18Z
FROM KIAG-KROC-KFZY...HOWEVER EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 00Z ONWARDS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN
WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT.

CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ENSURE THIS REMAINS THE CASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT IN LATE IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
20KTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4FT ON THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE LAKES
INT HE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL,
WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THOUGH WE`LL
SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 213 AM EDT SATURDAY...SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S AND 30S UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM
CENTRAL CANADA.

TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK WE`LL SEE TEMPS
REACH THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60S IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY AND CLOSER TO 65 POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF BTV AS WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION STARTS IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL SCT-BKN DECK OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC MOST OF THE DAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
BUT REMAINING VFR.  WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 300553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE
REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SHORT WAVE
HEADS OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE
REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE SHORT WAVE
HEADS OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS PA AND SRN NY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 4-5SM AND 2.5-3.0
KFT AGL RANGE MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 08-12Z/SAT. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN.  CIGS WILL
GENERALLY BE SCT-BKN IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT TOWARDS 22Z/SAT TO 01Z/SUN
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3-7 KTS THIS
MORNING.  THEY WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 3-6 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPOU/KPSF....AND E/NE AT KGFL/KALB.  THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300543
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADARS SHOW BULK OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST ALONG THE TWIN TIERS
OF NY AND PA AT THIS TIME WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER
NORTH AND SOUTH. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WAS PRESENTLY RIGHT OVER NY AND PA. THIS
WAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT WEAKENS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
THE TWIN TIERS AND FINGER LAKES BY 3-4Z WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE HANGING ON THE LONGEST IN THE CATSKILLS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR THE NIGHT WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE ONLY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NY. REST OF
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. MINIMUMS WILL BE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/W EARLY ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE
PRESENCE OF THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR ALL THE CLOUDS OUT. EVEN
STILL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

BECOMING UNSETTLED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WITH RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT INITIAL
WAVE OF RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA / OVERRUNNING TO MOVE IN SW
TO NE AFTER 3Z. RAIN LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE EASING FOR A TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY
LATE SUNDAY, THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH S/W ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVELS SWINGING EAST TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER
RAIN MOVING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE NAM INDICATES OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION....HEAVIER THAN THE GFS AND EC. LEANED A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THESE LATTER TWO MODELS AND HAVE FORECAST STORM TOTALS
GENERALLY OF .75 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THIS WILL
BE OCCURRING OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WE DON`T EXPECT HYDRO
ISSUES.

THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-SHRA IS GONE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE MVFR CIGS COMMON FOR
THE REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR KSYR-KRME WHICH WILL INSTEAD HAVE CIGS HANG AT LOW END VFR.
KAVP-KBGM-KITH WILL EXPERIENCE FUEL ALT CIGS AT TIMES BUT IFR IS
UNLIKELY. LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER
OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A CIG WHILE ALSO
LIFTING INTO LOW END VFR. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK WILL TEND SCATTER...A
HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER
WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/PCF
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300537
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
CLOUDY OTHERWISE WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH TODAY.

VFR. NE WINDS UNDER 10KT BCMG SE AFTER DAYBREAK. SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTN WITH SE-S WINDS AROUND 10KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT OVERNIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...DS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL, WITH SEVERAL MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THOUGH WE`LL SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 PM EDT FRIDAY...GIVEN CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL
AS THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MIN
TEMPERATURES UPWARD SEVERAL DEGREES OVERNIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 244 PM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TREND TO MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY NORTH AND CLOUDIER SOUTH AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BTV FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

ANY MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULT
WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT STILL THINK
WE`LL SEE TEMPS PUSH ABOVE 50 AREA-WIDE WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN BEGINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
AND ALLOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL TEND TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE INTL BORDER OVER TIME
AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR DYNAMICAL LIFT AND RAIN
SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY I`VE MAINTAINED THE IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS/POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. GIVEN INITIAL DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WET BULB COOLING
PROCESSES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUCH THAT SOME OF
THE PCPN MAY FALL AS MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR A SHORT
PERIOD. HOWEVER, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 3000 FEET AND THIS
SHOULD LARGELY BE A NOVELTY MORE THAN ANYTHING.

DURING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH, DEEPER MOISTURE AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HIGH POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED. ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER(WARMER) SIDE OF
GUIDANCE SUNDAY(SUNDAY NIGHT) GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND A
GENERAL LACK OF STRONG ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. PTYPE SHOULD FALL AS ALL
RAIN, THOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES WET BULBING PROCESSES TO THE DEGREE
THAT IT DRIVES 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -2C TO -4C RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WOULD SUGGEST SOME RENEWED PTYPE ISSUES ONCE AGAIN AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION GIVEN ITS DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND
RESULTANT COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 239 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY MONDAY OUR LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
PULL EAST AND CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER OVER TIME DESPITE SOME
LINGERING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD THOUGH THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
YET ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE EAST BY THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL, A TURN TOWARD CLOUDIER MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY TO RETURN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST CLOUD CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CLEARING ANTICIPATED BY
MORNING HRS WITH SKC THEREAFTER. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN NORTH UNDER 5 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SAT - 12Z SUN: VFR. NO SIG WX.
12Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR TRENDING TO PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN
W/INTERVALS OF IFR POSSIBLE AND HIR TRRN OBSCURED.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...WGH/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 300241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO TRANSLATE FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO...PARTICULARLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. FARTHER N AND E...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
SW VT.

THE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W
TO E BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT UNTIL 2 AM. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASES...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...HOWEVER...UNTIL OR AFTER DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO TRANSLATE FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO...PARTICULARLY
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. FARTHER N AND E...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
SW VT.

THE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W
TO E BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT UNTIL 2 AM. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FARTHER EAST...AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASES...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...HOWEVER...UNTIL OR AFTER DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FROM THE SE CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY START
TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS OF 0230Z. WILL REDUCE AND ELIMINATE POPS FOR TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF A COOL RAINY DAY...CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
UPPER GENESEE VALLEY HAVE LEAD TO FORMATION OF LOW CLOUD DECK AND
AREAS OF FOG. HAVE UPDATED THAT AREA TO REFLECT THE CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH 12Z-13Z ON SATURDAY.

A DRY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE IN STORE BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE AS
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. CLEARING CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS... IN THE 30S TO LOW 30S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY... WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING.

ON SATURDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THE DRY FEED OF AIR
FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO ERODE AN INITIAL
SHOWERS THAT APPROACH THE REGION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND VIRGA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SOUTHWEST NY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL... WITH HIGHS
IN THE U50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK/
PENNSYLVANIA. A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
THIS FEATURE AND AN ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FORCING PEAKING OVER OUR REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT SLIDES OFF INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALONG WITH A SLUG OF RAIN WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BOOSTING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE PRETTY RESPECTABLE JUDGING
FROM A 12Z MODEL QPF CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AS MUCH AS A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...ALBEIT
ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...WITH THE RAIN THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THIS SECOND WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
AGAIN HELD BACK A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONSPIRE TO KEEP READINGS CONFINED TO THE MID
50S.

FINALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THIS PERIOD...WITH ATTENDANT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALSO LEADING TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO RIGHT
AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS MOSTLY WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40 MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WARM WEATHER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL EQUATE TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY MAY
VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE RAINFREE. THE BROAD BRUSH DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRUDGINGLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH
THE BACKEDGE OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.

A LOOK FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT NEXT WEEKEND...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOW-MID 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXIT THE SOUTHERN TIER TO
THE EAST... EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART TO SCATTER
OUT AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY AT KART.
KJHW WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
AFTER A FRESH RAIN... AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING
TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE. BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY BEAK OUT AT KJHW BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
MIDWEST TOWARD THE LAKES SUNDAY... BRINGING A RETURN TO THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300202
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND HOURLY T/TD BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT JET PRODUCING
SHOWERS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO END FROM NW TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST
OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS OVER SE CT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO
40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VFR ON SUN.

E WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK TO THE NE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE
WINDS LIKELY VEER TO THE SE SAT MORNING. LATE DAY SSE SEABREEZE
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 300202
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1002 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
AND HOURLY T/TD BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT JET PRODUCING
SHOWERS...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE WITH ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO END FROM NW TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NE NJ...NYC METRO...SW CT AND MOST
OF LONG ISLAND. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS OVER SE CT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS FALL INTO
40S...WITH LOWS SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH PERSISTENT E/SE
FLOW.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING HIGH/S IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WARMEST READINGS
INLAND AWAY FROM THE WATER/MARINE INFLUENCE.

UPPER WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKES IT/S
WAY EASTWARD SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS
LATER AT NIGHT.

THE SFC HIGH GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WESTERN LOCALES LIKELY SEE SOME OF THIS RAIN BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WHEREAS EASTERN ZONES MAY NOT. WILL LAYER POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUDS/EAST FLOW SHOULD PREVENT LARGE DISPARITIES IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A MOIST
ATMOSPHERE AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AS WELL AS LIFT FROM
WARM ADVECTION. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS PROGGED TO FORM ON THE
FRONT AND PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MUCH NEEDED STEADY SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE REGION.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.

CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS IS GREATLY REDUCED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHOULD LEAD TO
RENEWED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA HELPS DIG THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE DETAILS
VARY GREATLY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AS WELL AS TIMING OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE TROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...THERE IS STILL A
SIGNAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SE OR MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
CUTS THE TROUGH OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE POP
THIS TIME PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO A
NE FLOW AND RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL...BUT SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT COULD BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING
ON THE POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH.

VFR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VFR ON SUN.

E WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK TO THE NE LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NE
WINDS LIKELY VEER TO THE SE SAT MORNING. LATE DAY SSE SEABREEZE
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT EVENING...VFR.
.LATE SAT NIGHT-MON...RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. ESE/E WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFT FOR CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS.
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS EARLIER...SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE
INCREASED TO 5 TO 7 FEET. LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AND QUITE
POSSIBLY INTO THE MORNING SAT.

THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ENDING AT 6 AM. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THAT AT THIS TIME.

EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT.

INCREASING NE FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCA CONDS
ON ALL COASTAL WATERS. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT AS WELL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO NEAR SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST ON
ALL WATERS TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. CONDITIONS
COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.

ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ANOTHER SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




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