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000
FXUS61 KBTV 120548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC
BOUNDARYWITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING
P-GRAD. GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION... COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE
INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS ALLOWS SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY
PER BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
BTV AND MPV CURRENTLY STILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. NW WINDS BRIEFLY
GUSTY 15 TO 20 KTS...THEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. S WINDS MAY
BE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND MAY BE GUSTING
OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT A.M. LCL VLIFR
IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO
2" SNOWFALL PSBL.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL BE
BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. DEPENDING
ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES



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000
FXUS61 KBGM 120545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD AIR AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LE BAND OVER SYR WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWRD OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND
BRING OCNL IFR CONDS. AFTER THAT...GNRL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE FCST AREA WITH LGT WLY WINDS. THIS WILL CONT INTO FRI.
LATE IN THE PD...AND APRCHG COLD FNT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SQUALLS AND BRIEF LWR CONDS TO THE NY SITES THRU THE END OF THE
PD.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/DGM



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000
FXUS61 KALY 120543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
EAST NORTHEAST EXITING THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE UNDER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW...A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS NARROW BAND WILL RETREAT WESTWARD
BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS WE APPROACH 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CALM WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL BE FRIGID WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITONS FROM THE VFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 120543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
EAST NORTHEAST EXITING THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE UNDER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW...A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS NARROW BAND WILL RETREAT WESTWARD
BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS WE APPROACH 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CALM WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL BE FRIGID WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITONS FROM THE VFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 120543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
EAST NORTHEAST EXITING THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE UNDER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW...A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS NARROW BAND WILL RETREAT WESTWARD
BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS WE APPROACH 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CALM WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL BE FRIGID WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITONS FROM THE VFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 120526
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1226 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS AND GUSTS WERE ALSO DIMINISHING AS COLD ADVECTION
WEAKENS.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES. WIND
CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...COLDEST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. GUSTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 08Z TO 10Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOME SW ON
FRI. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS FRI AFTN.
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT AND MAY TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDS. PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN WDLY SCT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. NW WINDS 15-25G25-35KT DEVELOPING SAT
MORNING.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND WATERS
AND THE LONG ISLAND BAYS. WIND GUSTS WERE STILL UP TO 30 KT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WERE RIGHT AROUND 35 KT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
DISCONTINUED BEFORE 600 AM.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW GALES DEVELOPING SOON
THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 120425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY TO A TRANSIENT SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS BREAK IN
THE ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...FOR ONCE THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW DROPPING OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED LATE TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO RE-DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL FLOW OF AROUND 250 DEGREES
SHOULD FOCUS SNOWS ACROSS ERIE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT BY A LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO BE FOUND ABOVE 850MB. THUS AM ONLY EXPECTING
AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PICK UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AIDING
THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS...PARTICULARLY AS FLOW BACKS TO 240
DEGREES...INCREASING THE FETCH DOWN LAKE ERIE AND SHARPENING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. BY LUNCHTIME WE
COULD EASILY BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR. UPSTREAM
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SNOWFALL
FOCUSING IN ON THE AREA FROM WATERTOWN TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS. WITH
CONVERGENCE SHARPENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WE MAY
SEE SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW WILL FURTHER JEOPARDIZE TRAVEL AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ALL TOLD...WE MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. AS MUCH AS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY THE
END OF THE DAY.

AS NASTY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ONSHORE WITH
FRONTAL FORCING ALSO PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL.
THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND A QUICK ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE
POTENTIALLY RAPID DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS...A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN THE WARNINGS FOR THE ONGOING LES. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING SHALLOW MULTIBAND
LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE 10 ALONG THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE INCREASING WINDS WILL TEMPER THIS COMPARATIVE
WARMUP WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
AROUND ZERO. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS CRASHING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE SOME LIMITED MODERATION. LOWS THERE WILL
/ONLY/ BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THAT WILL NOT BE
MUCH COMFORT HOWEVER AS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREAK IN
ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL
KART WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY. BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RAPIDLY DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SQUALLS PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VSBYS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THUS A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THE LAKES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRIGID ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 120425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY TO A TRANSIENT SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS BREAK IN
THE ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...FOR ONCE THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW DROPPING OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED LATE TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO RE-DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL FLOW OF AROUND 250 DEGREES
SHOULD FOCUS SNOWS ACROSS ERIE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT BY A LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO BE FOUND ABOVE 850MB. THUS AM ONLY EXPECTING
AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PICK UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AIDING
THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS...PARTICULARLY AS FLOW BACKS TO 240
DEGREES...INCREASING THE FETCH DOWN LAKE ERIE AND SHARPENING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. BY LUNCHTIME WE
COULD EASILY BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR. UPSTREAM
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SNOWFALL
FOCUSING IN ON THE AREA FROM WATERTOWN TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS. WITH
CONVERGENCE SHARPENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WE MAY
SEE SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW WILL FURTHER JEOPARDIZE TRAVEL AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ALL TOLD...WE MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. AS MUCH AS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY THE
END OF THE DAY.

AS NASTY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ONSHORE WITH
FRONTAL FORCING ALSO PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL.
THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND A QUICK ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE
POTENTIALLY RAPID DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS...A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN THE WARNINGS FOR THE ONGOING LES. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING SHALLOW MULTIBAND
LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE 10 ALONG THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE INCREASING WINDS WILL TEMPER THIS COMPARATIVE
WARMUP WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
AROUND ZERO. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS CRASHING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE SOME LIMITED MODERATION. LOWS THERE WILL
/ONLY/ BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THAT WILL NOT BE
MUCH COMFORT HOWEVER AS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREAK IN
ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL
KART WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY. BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RAPIDLY DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SQUALLS PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VSBYS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THUS A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THE LAKES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRIGID ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 120425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY TO A TRANSIENT SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS BREAK IN
THE ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...FOR ONCE THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW DROPPING OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED LATE TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO RE-DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL FLOW OF AROUND 250 DEGREES
SHOULD FOCUS SNOWS ACROSS ERIE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT BY A LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO BE FOUND ABOVE 850MB. THUS AM ONLY EXPECTING
AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PICK UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AIDING
THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS...PARTICULARLY AS FLOW BACKS TO 240
DEGREES...INCREASING THE FETCH DOWN LAKE ERIE AND SHARPENING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. BY LUNCHTIME WE
COULD EASILY BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR. UPSTREAM
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SNOWFALL
FOCUSING IN ON THE AREA FROM WATERTOWN TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS. WITH
CONVERGENCE SHARPENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WE MAY
SEE SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW WILL FURTHER JEOPARDIZE TRAVEL AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ALL TOLD...WE MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. AS MUCH AS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY THE
END OF THE DAY.

AS NASTY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ONSHORE WITH
FRONTAL FORCING ALSO PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL.
THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND A QUICK ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE
POTENTIALLY RAPID DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS...A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN THE WARNINGS FOR THE ONGOING LES. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING SHALLOW MULTIBAND
LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE 10 ALONG THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE INCREASING WINDS WILL TEMPER THIS COMPARATIVE
WARMUP WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
AROUND ZERO. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS CRASHING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE SOME LIMITED MODERATION. LOWS THERE WILL
/ONLY/ BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THAT WILL NOT BE
MUCH COMFORT HOWEVER AS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREAK IN
ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL
KART WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY. BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RAPIDLY DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SQUALLS PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VSBYS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THUS A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THE LAKES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRIGID ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 120245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED
DOWNSTREAM. A WEAK SFC ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OH VALLEY. A NARROW...WEAKENING BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUES OVER THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE CNTRL
TACONICS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED OF A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN.

THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE NARROW RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
EXCEPT OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 120240
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS AND GUSTS WERE ALSO DIMINISHING AS COLD ADVECTION
WEAKENS.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES. WIND
CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...COLDEST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WLY WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SW ON FRI. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AT KEWR FRI AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUND WATERS
AND THE LONG ISLAND BAYS. WIND GUSTS WERE STILL UP TO 30 KT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS WERE RIGHT AROUND 35 KT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE GALE
WARNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND THE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
DISCONTINUED BEFORE 600 AM.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW GALES DEVELOPING SOON
THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120227
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 927 PM EST THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUDARY
WITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING P-GRAD.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120227
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 927 PM EST THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUDARY
WITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING P-GRAD.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120227
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 927 PM EST THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUDARY
WITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING P-GRAD.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBUF 120040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFFECT SNOWS ARE CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING KROC/KJHW...THESE
CONDITIONS SHOUDL IMPROVE AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.

THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AN FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL KART
WITH CONDITIONS DETRIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 120040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFFECT SNOWS ARE CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING KROC/KJHW...THESE
CONDITIONS SHOUDL IMPROVE AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.

THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AN FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL KART
WITH CONDITIONS DETRIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 120040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFFECT SNOWS ARE CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING KROC/KJHW...THESE
CONDITIONS SHOUDL IMPROVE AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.

THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AN FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL KART
WITH CONDITIONS DETRIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 120028
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
715 PM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE ONLY EXPECT
ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT MOST ACROSS ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA
COUNTIES TONIGHT SO DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
FINALLY, ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED
FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300
DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY
SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES
TO BE CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE. IN ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
BANDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION
FOR LONG. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES
GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL
COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS
AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY
AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS
SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KALY 120016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 120016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 120016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KOKX 112339
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST AND
INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES OR BELOW.
WIND CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WLY WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SW ON FRI.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN A COUPLE OF
KNOTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN A HALF TO ONE FOOT. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON ALL WATERS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW
GALES DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 112339
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST AND
INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES OR BELOW.
WIND CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WLY WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SW ON FRI.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN A COUPLE OF
KNOTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN A HALF TO ONE FOOT. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON ALL WATERS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW
GALES DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 112339
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
639 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO ALONG THE
COAST...WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST AND
INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES OR BELOW.
WIND CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WLY WINDS DIMINISH
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SW ON FRI.

    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z OR SO.
DIRECTIONS PRIMARILY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVE. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY DIMINISH 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO INCREASE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN A COUPLE OF
KNOTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN A HALF TO ONE FOOT. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON ALL WATERS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW
GALES DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 112331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 112331 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 112331 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 112331 AAA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR THIS EVENING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER
VIS BEFORE THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SNOW
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOST
TERMINALS WITH BKN MVFR CIGS AND GENERALLY VFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH A PROBABLE
LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND/OR HVY RAIN AS AN
EAST COAST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MDP




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 112304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
604 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT
IN LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL
WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 112304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
604 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT
IN LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL
WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 112147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...

AS OF 430 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
ATTENDANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NEARBY...AND
HAS INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCHOHARIE CO/EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND ALSO SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING FILAMENTS OF
SNOWBANDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
45 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 8 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION CLOSER TO...AND ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET...BUT
COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO WHERE BETTER LAKE
CONNECTION REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL IT DOES...AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IN TACT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 6 PM. ALSO...AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 112147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...

AS OF 430 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
ATTENDANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NEARBY...AND
HAS INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCHOHARIE CO/EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND ALSO SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING FILAMENTS OF
SNOWBANDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
45 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 8 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION CLOSER TO...AND ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET...BUT
COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO WHERE BETTER LAKE
CONNECTION REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL IT DOES...AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IN TACT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 6 PM. ALSO...AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 112147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...

AS OF 430 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
ATTENDANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NEARBY...AND
HAS INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCHOHARIE CO/EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND ALSO SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING FILAMENTS OF
SNOWBANDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
45 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 8 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION CLOSER TO...AND ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET...BUT
COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO WHERE BETTER LAKE
CONNECTION REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL IT DOES...AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IN TACT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 6 PM. ALSO...AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 112129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER WILL PASS TO
THE E BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NE
AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT...SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY WITH GUSTY W/NW WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES OR BELOW.
WIND CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.

VFR. CHC -SHSN UNTIL 22Z WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 3-5SM.

WNW WINDS...PREVAILING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS:OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 31-34KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON ALL WATERS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW GALES
DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
CLIMATE...JM



000
FXUS61 KOKX 112129
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...SETTLING RIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY...WITH A DEVELOPING LOW WELL WEST OF THE REGION THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD THEREAFTER.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER WILL PASS TO
THE E BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS TO THE NE
AND LAPSE RATES DECREASE WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. AS A
RESULT...SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY WITH GUSTY W/NW WINDS SLOW TO
DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME READINGS MAY
EVEN BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. USED A MET/MAV MOS BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID
TEENS AT THE COAST. THIS IS BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S. WINDS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THEN ALLOWS THE POLAR VORTEX TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND INTO SE CANADA FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
THIS WILL SEND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRI
MORNING INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY FRI EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI AFT AND
THEN LOWER AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SCT SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO HAVE BEEN SHOWING A HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS
EASTERN LI/SE CT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK INVERTED TROF SETS UP TO
THE NW OF A COASTAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING...BUT PERHAPS A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S...BEFORE DROPPING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT SAT MORNING. READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS BY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM...THIS IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE JET
SPLITS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A JET STREAK MAXIMIZES IN
SPEED WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVE
TILTING SHARPENING TROUGH. THE JET AGAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST APPROACHING FOR
NEXT THURSDAY.

A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW AT 500MB PUSHES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW AT 500MB AFTER THAT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND FOR GEOPOTENTIAL
TENDENCY AT THIS LEVEL WILL BE POSITIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A SHARPENING TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NEGATIVE TREND RESUMES THEREAFTER IN
THE HEIGHT TENDENCY WITH ANOTHER LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.

EXTREMELY COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STAYING BELOW 20 DEGREES OR BELOW.
WIND CHILLS RANGE -15 TO -30 SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...COLDEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. OVERALL...WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.

PRECIPITATION...SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND IN
RESPONSE TO INVERTED TROUGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STILL WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER APPROACHES. THE HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INITIALLY WINTER PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY WHICH
COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

AFTER THE LOW...COLD AIR ADVECTION RESUMES BUT NO EXTREME COLD IS
EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. DRIER TREND TO WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.

VFR. CHC -SHSN UNTIL 22Z WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TO 3-5SM.

WNW WINDS...PREVAILING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS:OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 31-34KT POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR DAYTIME...CHC SUB-VFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON ALL WATERS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
DROPPED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRI INTO
FRI NIGHT AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WITH NW GALES
DEVELOPING SOON THEREAFTER.

ROUGH CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. GALES LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES PREVAIL INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED AS
WELL THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS TREND BACK UP THOUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT TUESDAY
WITH SCA BECOMING PROBABLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FRI
NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  3.............17 (1979) / 16
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  5.............15 (1979) / 16
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  4.............17 (1979) / 17
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  0.............26 (1987) / 14
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 16
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-103.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
CLIMATE...JM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 112059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT
IN LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL
WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 112047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 112031
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENECA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TOFALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 112016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY. THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW
ZERO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ORIENTED FROM AROUND 290 DEGREES
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO AROUND 300 DEGREES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MOVING THE SNOW BANDS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS WE BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME MODERATE SNOW WILL
REACH THE CITY OF SYRACUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
FACTORS WORKING AGAINST REALLY HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING INCLUDE
THAT THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION THE GRADUAL SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS SHOULD KEEP
HEAVY SNOW FROM PERSISTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR LONG. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST PLACES GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE FARTHER
SOUTH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM CAYUGA AND SENACA
COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH CORTLAND AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WE WILL ALLOW
THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE WESTERLY AND DRYER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST... WITH WEAKENING BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EAST
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY WILL START OUT QUIET WITH MAINLY DRY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN PA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH MANY
PLACES PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 8.0 DEGREES C PER KM FRIDAY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NY AND OVER 7.0 DEGREES C PER KM OVER NORTHEAST PA WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE. THIS WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE SNOW SHOWRES AS THEY CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
LOWERING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN -30 AND -32 OVER CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH IS ABOUT AS COLD AS WE
EVER SEE IN THIS AREA. BASED ON THIS WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERAUTRES
TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY MORNING... HOLDING
NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY THEN FALLING BELOW ZERO BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMBINED WITH 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE ARE GOING WITH A WIND
CHILL WATCH FOR CENTRAL NY FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
AND A WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEAST PA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD... BUT
STILL DANGEROUSLY COLD ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NNW FLOW WILL
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY
ENHANCED BY THE FINGER LAKES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL
WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BEING BELOW -20 C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ062.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 112002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW-TO-MIX AS AN EAST COAST
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 112002
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM THU UPDATE...
WE START OFF WELL SUBZERO DAWN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN SATURDAY...YET STILL ENOUGH TO YIELD
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY- SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO ACTUALLY BUILD IN. LAKE MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER
THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM STEUBEN COUNTY THROUGH THE FINGER
LAKES TO SYRACUSE REGIONS...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT DRY FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND
12 DEGREES.

BUSY PATTERN COMES TOGETHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHARP
TROUGH FROM THIS WEEKEND LIFTS OUT...ONLY FOR MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITIONING TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AS A NEW ONE DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS LOOKS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH THEN DEEPENS WHILE HEADING NORTHEAST. WITH
RETROGRADED TROUGH...WARMER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT IN AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS...AND WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE ON EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM...THEY HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT ON ITS TRACK AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL. ONE THING THAT APPEARS MISSING IS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHEAST FOR ANCHORING THE COLD AIR...SO THE WARMER TREND IN
LATEST GUIDANCE MAKES SENSE. ALL WE CAN SAY AT THIS POINT IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING PROBABLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY
QUESTIONABLE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW-TO-MIX AS AN EAST COAST
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBTV 111852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE
CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111843
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN A MULTIBANDED ORIENTATION DUE
TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR AT 1PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE IN CHECK BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION... WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN
3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SLOWLY
MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT... WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY DAYBREAK. WHILE A
CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY
ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE
BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING
THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z
FRIDAY THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111843
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN A MULTIBANDED ORIENTATION DUE
TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR AT 1PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE IN CHECK BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION... WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN
3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SLOWLY
MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT... WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY DAYBREAK. WHILE A
CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY
ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE
BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING
THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z
FRIDAY THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH



000
FXUS61 KOKX 111809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
109 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRI NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING WHILE LOW PRES PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND. STRONG HIGH PRES
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE W LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS
E ON MON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MON AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...THEN LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...AND PASS TO THE NE ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE UPPER
TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. IN FACT...LATEST TEMPS TRENDS SUPPORTS LOWERING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S. SCT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC TROF.

INCREASING MID LVL WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RAISE POP TO LIKELY FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE
POP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS
EXPECTED AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE COULD SEE ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT VIA DECREASING STABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES...HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SAT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY VIA STRONG CAA. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A LITTLE ON SAT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BUT
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BASED ON A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP LAST FEB WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW TEMPS
FCST BY ECMWF MOS...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN SUBURBS AND LONG
ISLAND.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
NYC METRO AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
MON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL REACHING
PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW
MOVING UP THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY
PRECIP TYPE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT AND TEMPS WARMING ALOFT...THINK
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT AND THEN RAIN
DURING TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR. CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN THIS AFTN...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE
LIGHT WITH VSBYS AT 6SM OR ABOVE MOST OF THE TIME. ANY SNOW LIKELY
DOES NOT PREVAIL LONG ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN TAFS...EVEN IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

WNW WINDS...PREVAILING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS BEFORE 20-
21Z. TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS BEFORE 20-
21Z. TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS BEFORE 20-
21Z. TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 33-35KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS BEFORE 20-
21Z. TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS BEFORE 20-
21Z. TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH BRIEF 3-5SM VSBYS BEFORE 21-
22Z. TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 31-34KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
GUSTS AROUND 35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND -SN PM.
.TUESDAY...SUB-VFR AND RAIN. CHC MIXED PCPN EARLY. SE-S GUSTS TO
30KT POSSIBLE. CHC LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE
DAY ON FRI.

WINDS THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SE...AND GALES ARE LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES COMBINED WITH SST IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S ON SAT...SINGLE DIGITS SAT
NIGHT AND TEENS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY PROBLEMS...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCRETION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

QUIET CONDS EVENTUALLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI...AND 1/10 INCH OR LESS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 17
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  4.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  / -3.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 18
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -3.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
CLIMATE...//




000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBGM 111652
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1152 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111529
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111529
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 111515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1015 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1004 AM EST THURSDAY...W TO NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH COLD ADVECTION OFFSETTING DIURNAL HEATING.
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NRN NY (4F AT KMSS AT
15Z)...AND MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS VT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
QUASI-STEADY THROUGH 18Z OR SO...AND THEN GRADUALLY FALL. AFTN TEMPS
GENERALLY 10-15DEG BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY GENERATE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS WITH A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIR TRRN. LACK OF FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
(OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS) WILL KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLD TO SCT
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

CYCLONIC 500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
QUIET (AND COLD) WX CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE
WARMING ALOFT AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND
GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MVG EASTWARD AND CRESTING OVER NERN NY AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE
CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF
IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TO PLACE
PREVAILING IN THE TAF. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KOKX 111505
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1005 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRI NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WHILE LOW PRES PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE W LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS E ON
MON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN LOW
PRES WILL MOVE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE NE ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. STRATOCU WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SFC TROF. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S...WHICH IS 10 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

INCREASING MID LVL WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RAISE POP TO LIKELY FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE
POP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS
EXPECTED AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE COULD SEE ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT VIA DECREASING STABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES...HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SAT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY VIA STRONG CAA. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A LITTLE ON SAT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BUT
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BASED ON A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP LAST FEB WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW TEMPS
FCST BY ECMWF MOS...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN SUBURBS AND LONG
ISLAND.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
NYC METRO AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
MON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL REACHING
PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW
MOVING UP THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY
PRECIP TYPE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT AND TEMPS WARMING ALOFT...THINK
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT AND THEN RAIN
DURING TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR. CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN THIS AFTN. PROBABILITY OF PREVAILING
SNOW OR PINPOINTING A PARTICULAR HOUR OF TEMPO SNOW FOR AT LEAST A
HALF HOUR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHSN NEVERTHELESS STILL
POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL THIS AFTN.

WNW WINDS...PREVAILING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KT TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. FREQUENT GUSTS MAY DROP BELOW 30KT BY 22-00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. FREQUENT GUSTS MAY DROP BELOW 30KT BY 22-00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. FREQUENT GUSTS MAY DROP BELOW 30KT BY 22-00Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 18-21Z
TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE
DAY ON FRI.

WINDS THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SE...AND GALES ARE LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES COMBINED WITH SST IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S ON SAT...SINGLE DIGITS SAT
NIGHT AND TEENS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY PROBLEMS...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCRETION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

QUIET CONDS EVENTUALLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI...AND 1/10 INCH OR LESS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 17
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  4.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  / -3.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 18
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -3.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/JC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
CLIMATE...//




000
FXUS61 KOKX 111505
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1005 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRI NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WHILE LOW PRES PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE W LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS E ON
MON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN LOW
PRES WILL MOVE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE NE ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW. STRATOCU WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SFC TROF. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 20S...WHICH IS 10 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

INCREASING MID LVL WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RAISE POP TO LIKELY FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE
POP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS
EXPECTED AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE COULD SEE ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT VIA DECREASING STABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES...HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SAT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY VIA STRONG CAA. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A LITTLE ON SAT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BUT
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BASED ON A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP LAST FEB WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW TEMPS
FCST BY ECMWF MOS...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN SUBURBS AND LONG
ISLAND.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
NYC METRO AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
MON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL REACHING
PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW
MOVING UP THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY
PRECIP TYPE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT AND TEMPS WARMING ALOFT...THINK
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT AND THEN RAIN
DURING TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR. CHC SUB-VFR WITH -SHSN THIS AFTN. PROBABILITY OF PREVAILING
SNOW OR PINPOINTING A PARTICULAR HOUR OF TEMPO SNOW FOR AT LEAST A
HALF HOUR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. -SHSN NEVERTHELESS STILL
POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL THIS AFTN.

WNW WINDS...PREVAILING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KT TODAY. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. FREQUENT GUSTS MAY DROP BELOW 30KT BY 22-00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. FREQUENT GUSTS MAY DROP BELOW 30KT BY 22-00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. FREQUENT GUSTS MAY DROP BELOW 30KT BY 22-00Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 17-20Z
TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC -SHSN WITH 1-2SM VSBYS WITHIN THE 18-21Z
TIME FRAME. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE
DAY ON FRI.

WINDS THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SE...AND GALES ARE LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES COMBINED WITH SST IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S ON SAT...SINGLE DIGITS SAT
NIGHT AND TEENS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY PROBLEMS...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCRETION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

QUIET CONDS EVENTUALLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI...AND 1/10 INCH OR LESS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 17
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  4.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  / -3.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 18
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -3.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/JC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
CLIMATE...//




000
FXUS61 KALY 111410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY
FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 900 AM EST...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
UPSLOPE-FAVORED TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES IN
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...WITH 1-3 INCHES
GENERALLY EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AN INCH OR LESS
IS EXPECTED.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER ACROSS THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF
THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH
THE FA TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S
SOUTHEAST. WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25
MPH AT TIMES...IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ABOUT TEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 111155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 641 AM EST THURSDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND A HINT OF IT IS ACTUALLY
REACHING SOUTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630
UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT
AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE
COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY DECREASING
EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 2
INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE
CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF
IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TO PLACE
PREVAILING IN THE TAF. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 111155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 641 AM EST THURSDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND A HINT OF IT IS ACTUALLY
REACHING SOUTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630
UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT
AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE
COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY DECREASING
EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 2
INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE
CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF
IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TO PLACE
PREVAILING IN THE TAF. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 111155
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
655 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 641 AM EST THURSDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND A HINT OF IT IS ACTUALLY
REACHING SOUTHERN RUTLAND COUNTY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 630
UPDATE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT
AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE
COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY DECREASING
EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE AROUND 2
INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE
CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF
IFR CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING TO PLACE
PREVAILING IN THE TAF. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150Z...THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SAFELY EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE LES WARNING THERE.

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT
SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
REMAINING SNOWS TO COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...WITH
THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...
THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR



000
FXUS61 KBUF 111152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150Z...THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SAFELY EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE LES WARNING THERE.

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT
SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
REMAINING SNOWS TO COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...WITH
THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...
THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150Z...THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SAFELY EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE LES WARNING THERE.

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT
SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
REMAINING SNOWS TO COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...WITH
THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...
THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBGM 111139
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 111139
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LE SNOW BAND IS XPCTD TO DROP SWRD ACROSS RME AND STALL IN THE SYR
AREA FOR SVRL HRS TODAY. THIS WEILL BRING BRIEF IFR CONDS TO
RME...AND PROLONGED IFR CIGS AND VSBY TO SYR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BRING BRIEF LWR CONDS BUT MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR ELSEWHERE. BAND IS XPCTD TO LIFT NWRD LTR THIS
EVE LVG VFR CONDS AT ALL STATIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 111138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRI NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WHILE LOW PRES PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE W LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS E ON
MON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN LOW
PRES WILL MOVE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE NE ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHWRS TRACKING THRU THE CWA THIS MRNG PUTTING DOWN A COATING
OF SNOW AND BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS TO A HALF MILE. THIS IS WITH A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO COME
THRU TODAY. THIS WILL WORK ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE H925-H5 LAYER. NAM
EVEN SUGGESTS SBCAPE OVER 100 J/KG. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN. INCREASING MID LVL
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND. ALTHOUGH THIS
FALLS BELOW ANY WRNG/ADVY CRITERIA...WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT IN
THE HWO.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV
AND ANY DEPARTING CONVECTION. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT
QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RAISE POP TO LIKELY FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE
POP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS
EXPECTED AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE COULD SEE ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT VIA DECREASING STABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES...HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SAT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY VIA STRONG CAA. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A LITTLE ON SAT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BUT
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BASED ON A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP LAST FEB WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW TEMPS
FCST BY ECMWF MOS...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN SUBURBS AND LONG
ISLAND.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
NYC METRO AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
MON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL REACHING
PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW
MOVING UP THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY
PRECIP TYPE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT AND TEMPS WARMING ALOFT...THINK
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT AND THEN RAIN
DURING TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION COULD SET OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS...THINKING THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIME FRAME.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASING
THROUGH THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30 KT RANGE. THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS START TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
THE WRNG WAS THEREFORE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WRNG
REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

WINDS THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SE...AND GALES ARE LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES COMBINED WITH SST IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S ON SAT...SINGLE DIGITS SAT
NIGHT AND TEENS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY PROBLEMS...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCRETION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

QUIET CONDS EVENTUALLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI...AND 1/10 INCH OR LESS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 17
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  4.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  / -3.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 18
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -3.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 111138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRI NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WHILE LOW PRES PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE W LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS E ON
MON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN LOW
PRES WILL MOVE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE NE ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHWRS TRACKING THRU THE CWA THIS MRNG PUTTING DOWN A COATING
OF SNOW AND BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS TO A HALF MILE. THIS IS WITH A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO COME
THRU TODAY. THIS WILL WORK ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE H925-H5 LAYER. NAM
EVEN SUGGESTS SBCAPE OVER 100 J/KG. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN. INCREASING MID LVL
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND. ALTHOUGH THIS
FALLS BELOW ANY WRNG/ADVY CRITERIA...WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT IN
THE HWO.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV
AND ANY DEPARTING CONVECTION. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT
QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RAISE POP TO LIKELY FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE
POP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS
EXPECTED AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE COULD SEE ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT VIA DECREASING STABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES...HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SAT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY VIA STRONG CAA. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A LITTLE ON SAT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BUT
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BASED ON A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP LAST FEB WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW TEMPS
FCST BY ECMWF MOS...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN SUBURBS AND LONG
ISLAND.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
NYC METRO AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
MON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL REACHING
PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW
MOVING UP THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY
PRECIP TYPE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT AND TEMPS WARMING ALOFT...THINK
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT AND THEN RAIN
DURING TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION COULD SET OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS...THINKING THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIME FRAME.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASING
THROUGH THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30 KT RANGE. THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS START TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
THE WRNG WAS THEREFORE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WRNG
REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

WINDS THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SE...AND GALES ARE LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES COMBINED WITH SST IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S ON SAT...SINGLE DIGITS SAT
NIGHT AND TEENS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY PROBLEMS...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCRETION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

QUIET CONDS EVENTUALLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI...AND 1/10 INCH OR LESS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 17
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  4.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  / -3.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 18
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -3.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 111138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRI NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WHILE LOW PRES PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE W LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS E ON
MON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN LOW
PRES WILL MOVE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE NE ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHWRS TRACKING THRU THE CWA THIS MRNG PUTTING DOWN A COATING
OF SNOW AND BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS TO A HALF MILE. THIS IS WITH A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO COME
THRU TODAY. THIS WILL WORK ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE H925-H5 LAYER. NAM
EVEN SUGGESTS SBCAPE OVER 100 J/KG. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN. INCREASING MID LVL
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND. ALTHOUGH THIS
FALLS BELOW ANY WRNG/ADVY CRITERIA...WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT IN
THE HWO.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV
AND ANY DEPARTING CONVECTION. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT
QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RAISE POP TO LIKELY FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE
POP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS
EXPECTED AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE COULD SEE ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT VIA DECREASING STABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES...HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SAT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY VIA STRONG CAA. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A LITTLE ON SAT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BUT
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BASED ON A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP LAST FEB WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW TEMPS
FCST BY ECMWF MOS...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN SUBURBS AND LONG
ISLAND.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
NYC METRO AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
MON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL REACHING
PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW
MOVING UP THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY
PRECIP TYPE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT AND TEMPS WARMING ALOFT...THINK
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT AND THEN RAIN
DURING TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION COULD SET OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS...THINKING THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIME FRAME.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASING
THROUGH THROUGH 18Z. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30 KT RANGE. THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS START TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW SHOWER LATE THIS MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT DURING THE DAY.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
THE WRNG WAS THEREFORE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WRNG
REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

WINDS THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SE...AND GALES ARE LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES COMBINED WITH SST IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S ON SAT...SINGLE DIGITS SAT
NIGHT AND TEENS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY PROBLEMS...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCRETION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

QUIET CONDS EVENTUALLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI...AND 1/10 INCH OR LESS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 17
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  4.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  / -3.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 18
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -3.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 111130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEHWERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEHWERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEHWERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 111007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

AS OF 500 AM EST...IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE TACONICS AS
WELL AS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS AND PLACED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THIS
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER AND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE DAY. AREAS
WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 111002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
502 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FRI NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
WHILE LOW PRES PASSES SE OF LONG ISLAND. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD FROM THE W LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN PASS E ON
MON. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN LOW
PRES WILL MOVE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...AND PASS
TO THE NE ON WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHWRS TRACKING THRU THE CWA THIS MRNG PUTTING DOWN A COATING
OF SNOW AND BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS TO A HALF MILE. THIS IS WITH A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO COME
THRU TODAY. THIS WILL WORK ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE H925-H5 LAYER. NAM
EVEN SUGGESTS SBCAPE OVER 100 J/KG. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN. INCREASING MID LVL
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND. ALTHOUGH THIS
FALLS BELOW ANY WRNG/ADVY CRITERIA...WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT IN
THE HWO.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV
AND ANY DEPARTING CONVECTION. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT
QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LOOKS HIGH
ENOUGH TO RAISE POP TO LIKELY FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...WITH CHANCE
POP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMS
EXPECTED AS STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE COULD SEE ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT VIA DECREASING STABILITY AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING ADVY CRITERIA IN NYC
METRO...LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN DRIES...HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SAT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS COOL OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THEN STAY DOWN THROUGH THE DAY VIA STRONG CAA. TEMPS MAY
RECOVER A LITTLE ON SAT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BUT
STRONG NW WINDS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS AT OR
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES
TOWARD DAYBREAK. BASED ON A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP LAST FEB WITH
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOW TEMPS
FCST BY ECMWF MOS...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO ZERO IN NYC AND ZERO TO 5
BELOW ELSEWHERE. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AND A WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN SUBURBS AND LONG
ISLAND.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS
NYC METRO AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
MON...WITH POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOWFALL REACHING
PARTS OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW
MOVING UP THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY
PRECIP TYPE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT APPROACHING LATE MON NIGHT AND TEMPS WARMING ALOFT...THINK
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIP LATE MON NIGHT AND THEN RAIN
DURING TUE MORNING. AFTER THAT...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SET OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WINDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH
12Z...AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
THE WRNG WAS THEREFORE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WRNG
REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

WINDS THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATE FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SE...AND GALES ARE LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ON ALL
WATERS AFTER AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN. THE GALES COMBINED WITH SST IN THE
LOWER 40S AND AIR TEMPS IN THE 20S ON SAT...SINGLE DIGITS SAT
NIGHT AND TEENS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY PROBLEMS...
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCRETION POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

QUIET CONDS EVENTUALLY RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI...AND 1/10 INCH OR LESS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT QPF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. PART OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW INITIALLY...BUT THEN RUNOFF VIA MELTING SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT COULD CAUSE AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF MAIN STEM RIVERS
WOULD BE AFFECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 17
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  4.............15 (1979) / 18
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  / -3.............26 (1987) / 15
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 18
BDR...........3 (2015*) / -3.............18 (1979) / 15

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 110951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE
WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
-20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C.
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 110951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE
WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
-20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C.
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 110951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE
WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
-20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C.
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 110951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE
WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
-20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C.
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 110951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
451 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE
WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
-20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -30C.
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN VERMONT. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WIND
CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF
THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 110915
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
415 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LE BAND WILL LINGER IN THE SYR/RME CORRIDOR AND BRING OCNL IFR
CONDS INTO THU. BAND IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOPUTH AND WILL
BRING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ITH ANBD BGM LTR IN THE DAY.
WEAKENING FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE LAKE EFFECT LVG GNRL
VFR CONDS TO ALL STATIONS AFT 00Z. GUSTY WEST WNDS TODAY WILL
BECOME LGTR AFT SUNSET THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU NGT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND BANDS OF MORE INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF. LESS COVERAGE AND TIME
AFFECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 110914
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER FROM
TODAY STRAIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE AND WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK ON FRIDAY. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND WELL BELOW ZERO
BOTH NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PROVIDE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
MORE LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE
WILL HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE
-20S THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN VERMONT AREA TO ONLY SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE THE COLDER AIR REACHES FIRST. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A CLOUDY DAY TODAY...THOUGH
SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND
GENERALLY DECREASING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF WATER EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT A BIT AND NO
VORTICITY ADVECTION REALLY. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING BY 00Z WILL
BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMING ALOFT
AT THIS POINT...BRIEFLY...AND WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THE REGION WILL SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...COMING TO
AN END AS FLOW SHIFTS WESTERLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

IN THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKE REGION. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO REACH ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NY BY MID
MORNING. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER, 925MB-
850MB WINDS OF 20-30KTS WILL HELP LAKE EFFECT STRETCH TO THE
NORTHERN AND NWRN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH SNOWFALL RATES
UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT
BAND. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SEE STRONG LOW LEVEL
DEFORMATION FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SQUALLS, BEFORE WEAKENING COME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF 25- 30 TO 1
POSSIBLE. WITH QPF AMOUNTS NEARING A QUARTER INCH...EXPECT
SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, HALF INCH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED...MAINLY 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN NY
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...AND THE GREEN MTNS. 2 INCHES OR
LESS EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY MORNING...NEARING 20 BELOW ZERO
IN AREAS WITH MIN TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD
VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S, BEFORE FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND COLDER. ANOTHER RUN
AT WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 20 BELOW ZERO MAINLY FOR NORTHERN NY
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
TEA KETTLING TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 404 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SHSN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z, MOST PREVALENT AT SLK TERMINAL MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AFTER 12Z SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES AND MIX OF VFR/MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONTINUE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE PREVAILING IN THE TAF
EXCEPT FOR SLK. WINDS BACKING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AND TRENDING
GUSTY INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z WILL SEE
CEILINGS SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

12Z SAT - 12Z MON...GENERALLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

12Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBUF 110847
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0845Z...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE A FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS STATED...CHANGES ARE ALREADY AFOOT...AS REGIONAL RADARS
ARE SHOWING THE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BANDS NOW
DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...IN RESPONSE
TO SUBTLE VEERING OF THE STEERING WINDS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH.

THROUGH SUNRISE...CONTINUED GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SEND THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHWARD INTO CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE
MULTIBANDED WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LINKING UP WITH A DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO TEND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG ITS WHOLE LENGTH...WITH THE
CORE OF THE CURRENT BAND MOVING BACK INTO THE WAYNE-N CAYUGA-SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR...AND ADDITIONAL /AND LIKELY MORE MULTIBANDED/
LAKE SNOWS REDEVELOPING FROM NIAGARA TO MONROE COUNTIES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE TRENDS...WE WILL BE DROPPING THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES FOR WYOMING AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WITH THIS PACKAGE...AS
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL BE OUT OF THESE AREAS BY 4 AM.
WHILE WE ALSO CONSIDERED DROPPING THE EXISTING LES WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
ERIE COUNTY WITH THIS PACKAGE...WILL HOLD ONTO THAT HEADLINE FOR AT
LEAST A BIT LONGER...UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS
HAVE CLEARED THAT REGION FOR GOOD. THIS STATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS WARNING BY AROUND SUNRISE.

ONCE WE GET INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN
NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO COME DURING THE FIRST PART OF TODAY...
WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...
THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT
LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KALY 110838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.

FOR TODAY EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH THE BAND MAINLY ALIGNING ITSELF ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER BEFORE PULLING BACK TO THE WEST AND IMPACTING MAINLY
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER LATER IN THE
DAY. AREAS WHICH ARE IMPACTED BY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
GENERALLY RECEIVE ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF
WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE SNOWS EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER ACROSS THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND THE BERKSHIRES. OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF SNOWFALL EXPECT
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL DROP THROUGH THE FA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 2
INCHES IN THE AREAS OF UPSLOPE SNOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 110830
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHWRS TRACKING THRU THE CWA THIS MRNG PUTTING DOWN A COATING
OF SNOW AND BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS TO A HALF MILE. THIS IS WITH A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO COME
THRU TODAY. THIS WILL WORK ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE H925-H5 LAYER. NAM
EVEN SUGGESTS SBCAPE OVER 100 J/KG. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN. INCREASING MID LVL
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND. ALTHOUGH THIS
FALLS BELOW ANY WRNG/ADVY CRITERIA...WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT IN
THE HWO.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHTRWV
AND ANY DEPARTING CONVECTION. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT
QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ANY CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW LOOKS LOW...HOWEVER...WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND DECREASING
STABILITY DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SCT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED.
WILL CAP POPS AT CHC FOR NOW.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD
AIR ALOFT DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
DRIES...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS STRONG
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY NOON...TEMPS
ARE PROBABLY IN THE TEENS AREA-WIDE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO. RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT IN SPITE OF
GUSTY NW FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -29C
TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. BASED ON TEMPS THAT OCCURRED DURING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
SETUP LAST FEBRUARY WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE LOW TEMPS THAT HAD OCCURRED...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO WHAT ECMWF MOS
HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A WARNING FOR SOME OF THE
NORTHERN SUBURBS.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DAYTIME HOURS
REMAIN DRY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE
VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY PCPN
TYPE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING AND WENT WITH A GENERAL RAIN...SNOW OR
MIX OF THE TWO AS PCPN TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SET OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WINDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH
12Z...AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
THE WRNG WAS THEREFORE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WRNG
REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 19
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 19
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  1.............26 (1987) / 18
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 19
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 17

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 110830
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHWRS TRACKING THRU THE CWA THIS MRNG PUTTING DOWN A COATING
OF SNOW AND BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS TO A HALF MILE. THIS IS WITH A
SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO COME
THRU TODAY. THIS WILL WORK ON AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE H925-H5 LAYER. NAM
EVEN SUGGESTS SBCAPE OVER 100 J/KG. WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN. INCREASING MID LVL
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF
VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND WIND. ALTHOUGH THIS
FALLS BELOW ANY WRNG/ADVY CRITERIA...WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT IN
THE HWO.

LAPSE RATES EASE TNGT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHTRWV
AND ANY DEPARTING CONVECTION. AS A RESULT WILL DRY THINGS OUT
QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER TO START WITH A SFC HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...THEN THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY LOW PRES PASSING OFFSHORE AND
AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE DATA SEEMS TO BE TRENDING FASTER
WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF AND CDFNT...SO WENT CLOSE TO THE 3Z
SREF FOR TIMING ACROSS WRN ZONES. THE GFS PRODUCES SOME LGT SNOW
ACROSS ERN AREAS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUMPED UP THE DRY
POPS IN THE SREF ACROSS ERN ZONES TOO SLGT CHC FOR THIS. ANY WWD
TREND COULD BRING A DUSTING BY DARK ERN CT AND LI. A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH READINGS OVER 10F BLW AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINED ENERGY SHOULD
INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE LOW PASSING WELL SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE AT
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE ANY CHANCE OF SNOW DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW LOOKS LOW...HOWEVER...WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND DECREASING
STABILITY DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SCT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED.
WILL CAP POPS AT CHC FOR NOW.

AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS THEN POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ALONGSIDE THE CORE OF COLD
AIR ALOFT DURING SAT/SAT EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
DRIES...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES DURING
THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMP ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS STRONG
COLD ADVECTION DROPS TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY NOON...TEMPS
ARE PROBABLY IN THE TEENS AREA-WIDE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
ZERO. RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT IN SPITE OF
GUSTY NW FLOW. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -29C
TO -30C DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. BASED ON TEMPS THAT OCCURRED DURING A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
SETUP LAST FEBRUARY WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE LOW TEMPS THAT HAD OCCURRED...WHICH ARE CLOSE TO WHAT ECMWF MOS
HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS WOULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY DURING SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY EVEN A WARNING FOR SOME OF THE
NORTHERN SUBURBS.

REMAINING COLD BUT DRY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS. MODELS THEN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DAYTIME HOURS
REMAIN DRY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S. WITH ITS AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS THEN HELPS STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE
VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION...TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CONSEQUENTLY PCPN
TYPE. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING AND WENT WITH A GENERAL RAIN...SNOW OR
MIX OF THE TWO AS PCPN TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SET OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WINDS/GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH
12Z...AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING NW WINDS.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN BRIEF -SHSN. NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W TODAY WITH GALE COND EXPECTED.
THE WRNG WAS THEREFORE EXPANDED TO ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WRNG
REMAINS UP THRU TNGT...THEN WINDS DECREASE THRU THE DAY ON FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THRU
FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS AND FORECASTS...

STATION......RECORD/FCST MINIMUM...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM/FCST HIGH
                 FOR 2/14                    FOR 2/14

NYC...........2 (1916)  /  1.............17 (1979) / 19
LGA...........1 (1979)  /  2.............15 (1979) / 19
JFK...........4 (1979)  /  2.............17 (1979) / 19
ISP...........7 (2015)  /  1.............26 (1987) / 18
EWR...........0 (1979)  /  0.............15 (1979) / 19
BDR...........3 (2015*) /  0.............18 (1979) / 17

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
     350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 110830
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS THRU THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA