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000
FXUS61 KOKX 311405
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1005 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves across the area this morning and then
washes out just to the south. A second cold front moves through
this evening, followed by high pressure building down from
southeast Canada through Thursday. A cold front moves across the
region Friday night. Weak high pressure then builds through the
region on Saturday. Unsettled weather on tap for the start of the
new week as low pressure slowly works through the Northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast is on track with just a few minor adjustments to
temperatures, dew points and cloud cover to reflect latest
observations. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Fog will continue through mid morning across far eastern LI/SE CT.
This fog will dissipate and diminish over the next few hours as
daytime heating continues.

A weak cold front just north of Long Island this morning will
pass to the south of the region by mid morning. There is little
upper support and surface high pressure remains north of the Great
Lakes. Model consensus take this front just south of the area
where it washes out by afternoon with sea breeze development at
the coast and a thermal trough inland.

Another mid level short wave trough passing across eastern Canada
today will send a second cold front toward the area this evening.
This will be a dry frontal passage.

Used a MOS blend today for highs which produces values of 75-80
at the coast, and the low to mid 80s inland. This is almost 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Cold frontal passage this evening will be dry, followed by Canadian
high pressure building southeast across the area through mid
week. Riding both aloft and at the surface will produce dry,
tranquil conditions with lows tonight and highs on Wednesday 5-8
degrees cooler, still though slightly above normal. A subsidence
inversion around 850-800 mb and daytime heating may allow for some
afternoon clouds Wed as easterly winds transport moisture off the
Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains over eastern Canada Wednesday night through
Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west as low
pressure tracks across Canada. Dry weather on tap through Thursday
evening, and then rain chances increase after midnight Thursday
night as that cold front moves into the region. Showers taper off
Saturday morning, and then weak high pressure moves across thew
region Saturday afternoon and evening.

Deep upper trough and low pressure then digs into the Great Lakes
during the day Sunday, and then slowly works east through Monday.
Whether a secondary low develops remains to be seen, but showers
will overspread the region Sunday and Monday.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected for the long
term period, with highs generally topping off in the upper 70s to
low 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak cold front will wash out over the area today. High
pressure will build from the NW tonight.

The weak surface front is still NW of NYC metro. Winds at 1-2 kft
AGL are N-NW, so with some daytime heating these winds will mix to
the surface, but not for long as sea breezes develop at usual times
or perhaps an hour later, especially farther east.

IFR/LIFR cigs at KGON/KISP will lift/scatter this morning as
drier air moves in aloft and slow daytime heating takes
place. Otherwise VFR conditions expected.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Sea breeze could develop an hour later than fcst.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments.

KISP TAF Comments: Unscheduled amendments possible to fine tune
improvement in flight cat this morning and sea breeze onset this
morning, which could occur an hr later than fcst.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Thursday...VFR. E winds occasionally gusting to 15-20 kt along
the coast and at the NYC metros.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers mainly after midnight with
MVFR conds.
.Friday...Chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers/tstms
with brief MVFR or lower conds.
.Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of dense fog will continue across the waters this morning
with particular emphasis across the eastern waters. A cold frontal
passage by mid morning will bring drier air into the region and
should dissipate the fog. This front however is weak and washes
out in close proximity to the waters by early afternoon.

Winds are forecast to remain light from the south this afternoon,
then become NE late tonight into Wednesday at 10-15 kt.

Sub-SCA conditions will continue from Thursday through the
weekend. Seas may build to 5-7 feet for the start of the new work
week as low pressure passes through the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pass through the region
Thursday night through Saturday morning. In general, up to 1/4
inch QPF is possible with locally higher amounts in convection.

Another round of showers will impact the region for the start of the
new week. It is too soon to determine QPF amounts at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-340-
     345-350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/BC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...FEB/BC/MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW



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000
FXUS61 KBGM 311353
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
953 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through
midweek under a mainly clear sky. Our next chance of rain will
come Late Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 A Update...
Fog has mostly burned off at this time with temperatures rising a
little faster than forecast. Made minor adjustments to temperature
grids for late morning to account for this in addition to minor
changes to dew point and sky grids. Otherwise forecast on track.


535 AM Update...
Valley fog is a bit more expansive than previously anticipated,
despite decent pressure gradient just off the surface, and
advecting in of dry air. Grids adjusted accordingly to include
some more valleys of the Twin Tiers.

Previous discussion...
At 3 AM... The cold front has finished clearing the area. Band of
high clouds currently over Poconos-Catskills is also about to
exit. Where showers and thunderstorms occurred Monday afternoon-
evening, the clearing sky has been able to harness leftover
moisture near the surface to produce valley fog. Hazleton PA and
Sidney NY have both taken turns at a quarter mile visibility.

Any localized fog will not last long after dawn, because of the
decent pressure gradient that still exists over the area, as well
as the dryness of the air mass advecting into the region. High
pressure is centered all the way up over Hudson Bay and even
Northern Manitoba, but a large surface ridge extends from it
through the Great Lakes region. Pressure gradient between the
incoming ridge, and departing low pressure in far eastern Quebec,
will be realized in the form of northwesterly winds with gusts
well into the teens today. The air mass from the Canadian high is
quite dry, with dewpoints mixing down into the upper 40s-lower 50s
this afternoon. That will be very noticeably more comfortable
compared to the mugginess of the last few days.

As surface ridge moves in, winds will decouple quickly under a
mainly clear sky this evening. This will allow for good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the upper 40s-
lower 50s in Central NY, and generally 50s in Northeast PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 AM Update....
500 mb ridge axis will be across our area by 12Z Wednesday and
will shift east by afternoon. Under sunny skies temps will be well
into the 70s to near 80 in urban areas. Heights begin to lower
Wednesday night into Thursday, in response to a strong trof moving
through the Upper Great Lakes. The best upper level support is
well, well north of our area Thursday. At best a thin ribbon of
vorticity moves through with an increase in 1000-500 mb relative
humidity ahead of a surface cold front. Best chances for rain will
be across NY State but QPF amounts will be light due to the upper
level support being minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 AM Update...

The cold front mentioned above slowly moves across our area
Thursday night into Friday. Again its likely we will a fair amount
of light showers across the area with the passage but without good
upper level support, QPF will be low. Later Friday into Friday
night may be drier than what we have indicated right now based on
some of the new guidance coming in. For now will maintain low
chance pops based on a SUPERBLEND of models but again we may be
able to take these rain chances out if models continue to trend
drier. High pressure will bring dry weather Saturday, but the next
trof digs into the Upper Midwest. Unlike the one at the end of
this week, this one tracks farther south and may end up right
across our area. The result is higher chances for rainfall along
with a trend toward cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mainly clear sky for all terminals today into tonight, as a high
pressure ridge moves into the region. As with prior to 12Z this
morning, KELM will likely again get valley fog this coming night
especially 09Z-12Z Tue. Variable/light west wind early morning,
will gradually veer northwest 6-12 kts during the day and then
light northerly or variable this coming night.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday...VFR except for MVFR/IFR pre-dawn valley fog possible
/mainly KELM/.

Thursday-Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms; better chances will be Thursday Night-Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PCF
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...MDP



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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311115
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
715 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance passing north of the region this afternoon will
bring scattered clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles
to northern mountain communities.  Otherwise dry and seasonably warm
conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds
across the northeast.  A trend toward cloudier, more unsettled
weather returns by Friday, and again from Sunday onward into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 715 AM EDT Tuesday...Current forecast remains on track and
only a few noise-level tweaks to sky cover and dewpoints were
needed to bring data in line with current observational trends.
Have a great day.

Prior discussion from 300 AM EDT Tuesday...
Generally quiet weather is expected over the next 24 hours and a
largely persistence forecast was offered for this morning`s
package. For today we`ll start the day mainly sunny, then trend
partly sunny by afternoon as a shortwave upper trough passes to
our immediate north and into northern Maine and the maritimes by
this evening. The feature has little moisture to work with, and
given a relatively dry boundary layer and thermal capping near 750
mb I`ve maintained our prior idea of just an outside shot of a
passing light shower or sprinkle across the northern mountains
later today. Best shot of occurrence across north
central/northeastern VT in closer proximity to upper energy.
Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures support highs in the 70s to
locally in the lower 80s in Champlain/Connecticut River Valley
communities where modestly gusty west-northwest boundary layer
flow will foster adiabatic downsloping effects.

By tonight surface high pressure continues to build into the region
as upper heights rise over time.  Any evening cloudiness will trend
mainly clear overnight as west to northwesterly winds become light
after midnight. While confidence is only modest given a full 24
hours of drying, favorable hydrolapse profiles and lighter nocturnal
boundary layer wind fields suggest including at least shot of some
patchy mist and/or fog across the northern mountains in the 200-700
am time frame. Low temperatures a blend of MOS-based and bias-
corrected output which support values ranging through the 40s to
around 50 in milder valley locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will crest over
the region on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions, warm
temperatures and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As 925mb
temperatures increase to the mid teens, surface temperatures will
reach the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Areas east of the Greens
may be slightly cooler as models trying to indicate some light
easterly to southeasterly flow may bring some maritime are into
eastern Vermont.

Wednesday night will remain dry and mild with increasing clouds
ahead of low pressure system and associated cold front approaching
from the west. Aforementioned ridge will shift east over the
Canadian maritimes, bringing return southerly flow to the North
Country. Min temperatures will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Potential for rain showers and
thunderstorms increase on Thursday as low pressure system nears. A
weak warm front will graze Northern New York, with increasing POPs
throughout the day, while the Champlain Valley and areas east are
expected to remain dry. Max temperatures will be slightly warmer
and dependent on cloud cover, ranging from the 70s to low-mid 80s.

Cold front associated with the low is expected to move across the
region Thursday night through Friday. Depending on timing,
thunderstorms could develop. While bulk of energy exits the North
Country to the south and east late Friday/Friday night, models
indicate another vort at 500mb moving through late Friday
night/early Saturday morning which will keep slight to low chance
POPs over the area.

High pressure arrives for the bulk of the weekend, providing a
break in precip potential, before a long wave mid-level trough
digs southward from the Great Lakes Region. Models show some
differences with regard to evolution, track and timing of this
system. Similarities exist in the surface low becoming a cut-off
low and could lead to a wet first half of the week.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal by
5-10 degrees for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 12z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the forecast period.
Winds generally light to modest west to southwesterly this
morning, veering west to northwesterly after 16Z and occasionally
gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before abating by 00Z. SCT to
occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070 AGL range arrive after
16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to the north. Other
than a brief northern mountain sprinkle, no precipitation is
expected with this feature. After 06Z trending mainly SKC though
have included a brief period of IFR vbys/cigs at KSLK in the
08-11Z time frame to account for favorable hydrolapse rates and
potential br/fg. Outside shot of this also occurring at the KMPV
terminal during the same time frame but given lower surface
moisture fluxes overall confidence is lower so have refrained
from mentioning at this point.

Outlook 12Z Wednesday through Saturday...

12Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure.

00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities
possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings
through the area.

00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 311103
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
703 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry ridge of high pressure will dominate the region through
midweek under a mainly clear sky. Our next chance of rain will
come Late Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
535 AM Update...
Valley fog is a bit more expansive than previously anticipated,
despite decent pressure gradient just off the surface, and
advecting in of dry air. Grids adjusted accordingly to include
some more valleys of the Twin Tiers.

Previous discussion...
At 3 AM... The cold front has finished clearing the area. Band of
high clouds currently over Poconos-Catskills is also about to
exit. Where showers and thunderstorms occurred Monday afternoon-
evening, the clearing sky has been able to harness leftover
moisture near the surface to produce valley fog. Hazleton PA and
Sidney NY have both taken turns at a quarter mile visibility.

Any localized fog will not last long after dawn, because of the
decent pressure gradient that still exists over the area, as well
as the dryness of the air mass advecting into the region. High
pressure is centered all the way up over Hudson Bay and even
Northern Manitoba, but a large surface ridge extends from it
through the Great Lakes region. Pressure gradient between the
incoming ridge, and departing low pressure in far eastern Quebec,
will be realized in the form of northwesterly winds with gusts
well into the teens today. The air mass from the Canadian high is
quite dry, with dewpoints mixing down into the upper 40s-lower 50s
this afternoon. That will be very noticeably more comfortable
compared to the mugginess of the last few days.

As surface ridge moves in, winds will decouple quickly under a
mainly clear sky this evening. This will allow for good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the upper 40s-
lower 50s in Central NY, and generally 50s in Northeast PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 AM Update....
500 mb ridge axis will be across our area by 12Z Wednesday and
will shift east by afternoon. Under sunny skies temps will be well
into the 70s to near 80 in urban areas. Heights begin to lower
Wednesday night into Thursday, in response to a strong trof moving
through the Upper Great Lakes. The best upper level support is
well, well north of our area Thursday. At best a thin ribbon of
vorticity moves through with an increase in 1000-500 mb relative
humidity ahead of a surface cold front. Best chances for rain will
be across NY State but QPF amounts will be light due to the upper
level support being minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 AM Update...

The cold front mentioned above slowly moves across our area
Thursday night into Friday. Again its likely we will a fair amount
of light showers across the area with the passage but without good
upper level support, QPF will be low. Later Friday into Friday
night may be drier than what we have indicated right now based on
some of the new guidance coming in. For now will maintain low
chance pops based on a SUPERBLEND of models but again we may be
able to take these rain chances out if models continue to trend
drier. High pressure will bring dry weather Saturday, but the next
trof digs into the Upper Midwest. Unlike the one at the end of
this week, this one tracks farther south and may end up right
across our area. The result is higher chances for rainfall along
with a trend toward cooler weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mainly clear sky for all terminals today into tonight, as a high
pressure ridge moves into the region. As with prior to 12Z this
morning, KELM will likely again get valley fog this coming night
especially 09Z-12Z Tue. Variable/light west wind early morning,
will gradually veer northwest 6-12 kts during the day and then
light northerly or variable this coming night.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday...VFR except for MVFR/IFR pre-dawn valley fog possible
/mainly KELM/.

Thursday-Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms; better chances will be Thursday Night-Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...MDP



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000
FXUS61 KBUF 311035
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through mid week bringing
a stretch of fair weather and near-normal temperatures. Warm and
humid conditions will return Thursday ahead of the next cold front
that will move through the region by Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure building into the region with a very dry airmass in
the upper levels from 850mb to 400mb over the Great Lakes. Scattered
stratocumulus clouds will reform during the afternoon along and
inland from the lake breezes. Highs today will be in the mid 70s to
around 80.

The high pressure centered north of our region will press further
into New York State and the northeastern states. This will maintain
a dry and cool flow across the area on north to northeast winds,
generally less than 10 mph overnight. Low temperatures will fall to
the upper 40s to lower 50s across inland regions and to the mid 5s
along the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Expect to see valley
fog in the Southern Tier, once more.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Our stretch of fine weather will continue on Wednesday...as the axis
of expansive high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will cross our
forecast area. Weak warm advection will set up on the backside of
the passing ridge line with H85 temps climbing into the mid teens
over the western counties. While this would suggest a warmer day...
most of the guidance packages are surprisingly low with their max
temps. Given the dry antecedent conditions (for all but portions of
the Finger Lakes)...see no reason why the airmass will not fully mix
and allow temps to climb abv 80 for most areas. That being said...
will aim a solid 5 deg above guidance by going 80 to 85 over the
western counties with 70s forecast within 10 miles of the south
shore of Lake Ontario and across the north Country. While dew points
will gradually climb during the course ofthe day...the higher temps
will be offset by dew points that will remain below 55.

As the aforementioned ridge drifts across New England Wednesday
night...a robust shortwave over the Upper Great Lakes will push a
cold front across Lower Michigan. The southerly flow between these
features will strengthen in the process and effectively hold our
temperatures some 10 deg higher than the previous night. Mins will
generally be within a few degrees of 60. Otherwise...dry weather
should persist with the warmer night being accompanied by a gradual
increase in cloud cover...especially over the far western counties.

Our stretch of fair dry weather will likely come to an end Thursday
and Thursday night as a cold front will ease across our region. The
eastward progression of the front will slow during this time period
though...as its mid level support will start to shear out to the
south of James Bay. The progressively weaker push could also allow a
wave or two to develop along the boundary...so will back off a
little on the timing of the associated convection. Will concentrate
the likely pops for showers and thunderstorms over the western
counties Thursday afternoon and evening...with the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario Regions being affected more Thursday night.
Synoptically...the convection will aided by the passing of an 80kt
H25 jet to our north...while on a more localized scale...`skinny`
SBCAPEs will climb to as high as 1000 j/kg. The kinematic profile is
not impressive for severe storms though...as 0-6km shear values will
generally be under 30 knots.

The cold front will nearly stall just to the east of our forecast
area on Friday...so will raise pops for sites east of the Genesee
Valley. Since the airmass is not really expected to change now until
at least Friday night...will make a subtle upward push to both temps
and dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It will be a dry and pleasant start to next weekend as the forecast
area will be located just downstream of an shortwave upper level
ridge. Models are currently in good agreement on translating the
ridge across Western and North-Central New York Saturday, preserving
one more day of fair weather across the region, perhaps with the
exception of a few innocent afternoon cu and an increase in high
clouds across the West late in the day. Temperature-wise, we will
still be running a shade above average, thanks to the aforementioned
ridging aloft.

Moving on into the latter half of the coming weekend, things will
become more unsettled across the Lower Great Lakes as a pronounced
shortwave progged to dive out of the Canadian Rockies and across the
Upper Great Lakes arrives on our doorstep Saturday Night. Guidance
begins to diverge slightly from this point onwards, with the 12Z
ECMWF favoring a slightly faster and less amplified solution...a
logical assumption given our time of year and the GFS tendency to
over-do these kinds of systems early on. Either way, expect at least
a chance of showers breaking out Saturday night across Western NY.

By Sunday, the entire forecast area will be in the bullseye of the
upper level trough and accompanying surface low. While airmass
running out ahead of this system will not be nearly as hot/muggy as
we saw the last few days, temperatures on Sunday will still run 5
to 10 degrees above average. Given abundant synoptic forcing and
decent instability, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms Sunday. Aforementioned synoptic forcing may allow
convection to linger well into Sunday night with another round
possible Monday as the upper level low center potentially stalls
over New England.

Looking further down the road...there remains strong consensus among
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members that a closed low will be found
within a significant (if not anomalously deep) longwave trough over
eastern Canada during the first full week of June. This will favor
cooler than normal conditions for much of the week...especially in
regards to daytime highs. Normal max temps for this time of year are
generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR will prevail today and Wednesday as high pressure
continues to build across the region from the north. The only
exception is a low chance for IFR fog at KJHW tonight as Southern
Tier valley fog forms between 08Z and 11Z. Have included some MVFR
fog in the KJHW TAF to highlight this potential.

Outlook...
Tonight and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly dry conditions expected through Wednesday under high
pressure. Winds will increase to around 15 knots which will produce
choppy wave action but still well below small craft advisory
criteria. A cold front passing through late Thursday may bring
thunderstorms with gusty winds and higher waves. High pressure will
build into the area late Friday and Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310736
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance passing north of the region this afternoon will
bring scattered clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles
to northern mountain communities.  Otherwise dry and seasonably warm
conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds
across the northeast.  A trend toward cloudier, more unsettled
weather returns by Friday, and again from Sunday onward into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Generally quiet weather is expected
over the next 24 hours and a largely persistence forecast was
offered for this morning`s package. For today we`ll start the day
mainly sunny, then trend partly sunny by afternoon as a shortwave
upper trough passes to our immediate north and into northern Maine
and the maritimes by this evening. The feature has little moisture
to work with, and given a relatively dry boundary layer and
thermal capping near 750 mb I`ve maintained our prior idea of just
an outside shot of a passing light shower or sprinkle across the
northern mountains later today. Best shot of occurrence across
north central/northeastern VT in closer proximity to upper energy.
Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures support highs in the 70s to
locally in the lower 80s in Champlain/Connecticut River Valley
communities where modestly gusty west-northwest boundary layer
flow will foster adiabatic downsloping effects.

By tonight surface high pressure continues to build into the region
as upper heights rise over time.  Any evening cloudiness will trend
mainly clear overnight as west to northwesterly winds become light
after midnight. While confidence is only modest given a full 24
hours of drying, favorable hydrolapse profiles and lighter nocturnal
boundary layer wind fields suggest including at least shot of some
patchy mist and/or fog across the northern mountains in the 200-700
am time frame. Low temperatures a blend of MOS-based and bias-
corrected output which support values ranging through the 40s to
around 50 in milder valley locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of high pressure will crest over
the region on Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions, warm
temperatures and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. As 925mb
temperatures increase to the mid teens, surface temperatures will
reach the 70s to low 80s on Wednesday. Areas east of the Greens
may be slightly cooler as models trying to indicate some light
easterly to southeasterly flow may bring some maritime are into
eastern Vermont.

Wednesday night will remain dry and mild with increasing clouds
ahead of low pressure system and associated cold front approaching
from the west. Aforementioned ridge will shift east over the
Canadian maritimes, bringing return southerly flow to the North
Country. Min temperatures will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Tuesday...Potential for rain showers and
thunderstorms increase on Thursday as low pressure system nears. A
weak warm front will graze Northern New York, with increasing POPs
throughout the day, while the Champlain Valley and areas east are
expected to remain dry. Max temperatures will be slightly warmer
and dependent on cloud cover, ranging from the 70s to low-mid 80s.

Cold front associated with the low is expected to move across the
region Thursday night through Friday. Depending on timing,
thunderstorms could develop. While bulk of energy exits the North
Country to the south and east late Friday/Friday night, models
indicate another vort at 500mb moving through late Friday
night/early Saturday morning which will keep slight to low chance
POPs over the area.

High pressure arrives for the bulk of the weekend, providing a
break in precip potential, before a long wave mid-level trough
digs southward from the Great Lakes Region. Models show some
differences with regard to evolution, track and timing of this
system. Similarities exist in the surface low becoming a cut-off
low and could lead to a wet first half of the week.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain above normal by
5-10 degrees for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds
generally light south to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts overnight
through 12Z, slowly backing to west, then west to northwesterly
after 12Z and occasionally gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before
abating by 00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070
AGL range after 16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to
the north. Other than a brief mountain sprinkle, no precipitation
is expected.

Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...

06Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure.

00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities
possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings
through the area.

00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 310735
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region
today. High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
into Thursday with dry conditions and comfortable humidity levels.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A ridge of high pressure will build southward today from Canada
bringing plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions. It will
still be another warm day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. It
will also be quite breezy as north to northwest winds of 5 to 15
mph with gusts to 25 mph will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather through the
mid week period as it moves across our region and eventually
slides eastward off the New England coast. Expect generally clear
to partly cloudy skies through Thursday morning with increasing
clouds Thursday afternoon. A cold front will approach from the
eastern Great Lakes Thursday night bringing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms Thursday evening as Showalter indices approach
zero with showers becoming more numerous during the second half of
Thursday night.

Lows tonight are expected to be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with
highs on Wednesday in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows Wednesday night
are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s with Highs on
Thursday in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Lows Thursday night will be
in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Trend toward an unsettled pattern into the weekend and early next
week as upper trough re-establishes itself across the Great Lakes
and northeast corridor.

We begin this long term with the passage of a cold front Friday with
a round of showers.  At this time, instability parameters look less
than ideal for most of the region to preclude the mention of thunder
at this time.  Clouds and the showers should limit temperatures too
with mainly U60s to L70s for the region.

A brief period of tranquil and near seasonable temperatures are
expected Friday night into Saturday as a weak yet progressive
surface high and short wave ridge moves across.  So we will keep the
weather dry under partly cloudy conditions.

Latest NCEP model suite and international guidance point toward
increasing amplification of the upper pattern as a strong upper
impulse from Alberta dives southeast toward the Great Lakes region.
In turn this will aid in the entrainment of sub-tropical moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico into the mid-Atlantic and northeast.  So
increasing clouds Saturday night with increasing PoPs overnight into
Sunday.  This will keep temperatures below normal with the potential
for above normal but needed rainfall for the region.

Rather excellent agreement among the models heading into Monday as
the main moisture advection transverses offshore but leaving behind
a cool and relatively moist cyclonic flow to keep the low chance
PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complex near term forecast as IFR conditions are in place at KPSF
but what if any potential for FG at the Hudson River locations
remains to be seen. Per the IR and 11u-3.9u satellite imagery,
ample high and some mid level clouds are evident which is helping
keep the dewpoint depressions around 5-10 degrees. However,
showers/storms were quite active south of KGFL and north of KPOU
yet drier air is observed upstream and slowly advecting into the
region. So for now, we will place a TEMPO group for IFR conditions
at KALB and closely monitor trends. Winds will generally be light
and variable overnight.

Through Tuesday, VFR conditions as high pressure ridge axis builds
into the region. Winds will increase with some gusts to around
20kts.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region
today. High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in control
into Thursday with dry conditions and comfortable humidity levels.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 50 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 90 percent tonight, and drop to 30 to
45 percent on Wednesday.

Winds will be north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph today, light and variable tonight, and east to northeast
around 5 mph on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High pressure will build into our region with dry weather
continuing through the middle of the week. The next chance for
showers will return late in the week as a frontal boundary
approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 310734
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region through mid week bringing
a stretch of fair weather and near-normal temperatures. Warm and
humid conditions will return Thursday ahead of the next cold front
that will move through the region by Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure building into the region with a very dry airmass in
the upper levels from 850mb to 400mb over the Great Lakes. Scattered
stratocumulus clouds will reform during the afternoon along and
inland from the lake breezes. Highs today will be in the mid 70s to
around 80.

The high pressure centered north of our region will press further
into New York State and the northeastern states. This will maintain
a dry and cool flow across the area on north to northeast winds,
generally less than 10 mph overnight. Low temperatures will fall to
the upper 40s to lower 50s across inland regions and to the mid 5s
along the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Expect to see valley
fog in the Southern Tier, once more.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Our stretch of fine weather will continue on Wednesday...as the axis
of expansive high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will cross our
forecast area. Weak warm advection will set up on the backside of
the passing ridge line with H85 temps climbing into the mid teens
over the western counties. While this would suggest a warmer day...
most of the guidance packages are surprisingly low with their max
temps. Given the dry antecedent conditions (for all but portions of
the Finger Lakes)...see no reason why the airmass will not fully mix
and allow temps to climb abv 80 for most areas. That being said...
will aim a solid 5 deg above guidance by going 80 to 85 over the
western counties with 70s forecast within 10 miles of the south
shore of Lake Ontario and across the north Country. While dew points
will gradually climb during the course ofthe day...the higher temps
will be offset by dew points that will remain below 55.

As the aforementioned ridge drifts across New England Wednesday
night...a robust shortwave over the Upper Great Lakes will push a
cold front across Lower Michigan. The southerly flow between these
features will strengthen in the process and effectively hold our
temperatures some 10 deg higher than the previous night. Mins will
generally be within a few degrees of 60. Otherwise...dry weather
should persist with the warmer night being accompanied by a gradual
increase in cloud cover...especially over the far western counties.

Our stretch of fair dry weather will likely come to an end Thursday
and Thursday night as a cold front will ease across our region. The
eastward progression of the front will slow during this time period
though...as its mid level support will start to shear out to the
south of James Bay. The progressively weaker push could also allow a
wave or two to develop along the boundary...so will back off a
little on the timing of the associated convection. Will concentrate
the likely pops for showers and thunderstorms over the western
counties Thursday afternoon and evening...with the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario Regions being affected more Thursday night.
Synoptically...the convection will aided by the passing of an 80kt
H25 jet to our north...while on a more localized scale...`skinny`
SBCAPEs will climb to as high as 1000 j/kg. The kinematic profile is
not impressive for severe storms though...as 0-6km shear values will
generally be under 30 knots.

The cold front will nearly stall just to the east of our forecast
area on Friday...so will raise pops for sites east of the Genesee
Valley. Since the airmass is not really expected to change now until
at least Friday night...will make a subtle upward push to both temps
and dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It will be a dry and pleasant start to next weekend as the forecast
area will be located just downstream of an shortwave upper level
ridge. Models are currently in good agreement on translating the
ridge across Western and North-Central New York Saturday, preserving
one more day of fair weather across the region, perhaps with the
exception of a few innocent afternoon cu and an increase in high
clouds across the West late in the day. Temperature-wise, we will
still be running a shade above average, thanks to the aforementioned
ridging aloft.

Moving on into the latter half of the coming weekend, things will
become more unsettled across the Lower Great Lakes as a pronounced
shortwave progged to dive out of the Canadian Rockies and across the
Upper Great Lakes arrives on our doorstep Saturday Night. Guidance
begins to diverge slightly from this point onwards, with the 12Z
ECMWF favoring a slightly faster and less amplified solution...a
logical assumption given our time of year and the GFS tendency to
over-do these kinds of systems early on. Either way, expect at least
a chance of showers breaking out Saturday night across Western NY.

By Sunday, the entire forecast area will be in the bullseye of the
upper level trough and accompanying surface low. While airmass
running out ahead of this system will not be nearly as hot/muggy as
we saw the last few days, temperatures on Sunday will still run 5
to 10 degrees above average. Given abundant synoptic forcing and
decent instability, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms Sunday. Aforementioned synoptic forcing may allow
convection to linger well into Sunday night with another round
possible Monday as the upper level low center potentially stalls
over New England.

Looking further down the road...there remains strong consensus among
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members that a closed low will be found
within a significant (if not anomalously deep) longwave trough over
eastern Canada during the first full week of June. This will favor
cooler than normal conditions for much of the week...especially in
regards to daytime highs. Normal max temps for this time of year are
generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure building into the region will allow for light winds
overnight, with mostly clear skies. Widespread VFR will prevail
tonight and again on Tuesday as the high continues to build across
the region. The only exception is a low chance for IFR fog at KJHW
tonight as Southern Tier valley fog forms between 08Z and 11Z. Have
included some MVFR fog in the KJHW TAF to highlight this potential.

Outlook...
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly dry conditions expected through Wednesday under high
pressure. Winds will increase to around 15 knots which will produce
choppy wave action but still well below small craft advisory
criteria. A cold front passing through late Thursday may bring
thunderstorms with gusty winds and higher waves. High pressure will
build into the area late Friday and Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310700
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance passing north of the region this afternoon will
bring scattered clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles
to northern mountain communities.  Otherwise dry and seasonably warm
conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds
across the northeast.  A trend toward cloudier, more unsettled
weather returns by Friday, and again from Sunday onward into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...Generally quiet weather is expected
over the next 24 hours and a largely persistence forecast was
offered for this morning`s package. For today we`ll start the day
mainly sunny, then trend partly sunny by afternoon as a shortwave
upper trough passes to our immediate north and into northern Maine
and the maritimes by this evening. The feature has little moisture
to work with, and given a relatively dry boundary layer and
thermal capping near 750 mb I`ve maintained our prior idea of just
an outside shot of a passing light shower or sprinkle across the
northern mountains later today. Best shot of occurrence across
north central/northeastern VT in closer proximity to upper energy.
Model-averaged 925 mb temperatures support highs in the 70s to
locally in the lower 80s in Champlain/Connecticut River Valley
communities where modestly gusty west-northwest boundary layer
flow will foster adiabatic downsloping effects.

By tonight surface high pressure continues to build into the region
as upper heights rise over time.  Any evening cloudiness will trend
mainly clear overnight as west to northwesterly winds become light
after midnight. While confidence is only modest given a full 24
hours of drying, favorable hydrolapse profiles and lighter nocturnal
boundary layer wind fields suggest including at least shot of some
patchy mist and/or fog across the northern mountains in the 200-700
am time frame. Low temperatures a blend of MOS-based and bias-
corrected output which support values ranging through the 40s to
around 50 in milder valley locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.

ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.

Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast period. Winds
generally light south to southwesterly 5 to 10 kts overnight
through 12Z, slowly backing to west, then west to northwesterly
after 12Z and occasionally gusty to 20 kts this afternoon before
abating by 00Z. SCT to occasionally BKN cigs mainly in the 045-070
AGL range after 16Z or so as weak upper disturbance swings by to
the north. Other than a brief mountain sprinkle, no precipitation
is expected.

Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...

06Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure.

00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with brief MVFR visibilities
possible in scattered showers as weak frontal boundary swings
through the area.

00Z Saturday onward...mainly VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 310652
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and more comfortable weather is building across our area.
Highs will be around 80 through mid week with overnight lows in
the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8pm update...

Showers and thunderstorms are exiting the region...clearing slowly
now from northwest to southeast through the night. Have removed
the showers and thunderstorms in the last update, and they should
fall off the forecast in NE PA in the next hour or so.

After the front passes tonight a slightly cooler and drier air
mass will settle in across central NY and NE PA. May possibly see
another round of valley fog Tuesday morning with recent rains
providing the necessary low level moisture and sfc temps dropping
off in the relatively clear skies and near calm winds. Confidence
is modest at this time due to the dry and cool nature of the air
mass coming in.

Weather conditions will remain quiet through the day Tuesday with
mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Winds
will be a bit more breezy than in recent memory...so that will
help moderate the temperatures a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 AM Update....

500 mb ridge axis will be across our area by 12Z Wednesday and
will shift east by afternoon. Under sunny skies temps will be well
into the 70s to near 80 in urban areas. Heights begin to lower
Wednesday night into Thursday, in response to a strong trof moving
through the Upper Great Lakes. The best upper level support is
well, well north of our area Thursday. At best a thin ribbon of
vorticity moves through with an increase in 1000-500 mb relative
humidity ahead of a surface cold front. Best chances for rain
will be across NY State but QPF amounts will be light due to the
upper level support being minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 AM Update...

The cold front mentioned above slowly moves across our area
Thursday night into Friday. Again its likely we will a fair amount
of light showers across the area with the passage but without good
upper level support, QPF will be low. Later Friday into Friday
night may be drier than what we have indicated right now based on
some of the new guidance coming in. For now will maintain low
chance pops based on a SUPERBLEND of models but again we may be
able to take these rain chances out if models continue to trend
drier. High pressure will bring dry weather Saturday, but the next
trof digs into the Upper Midwest. Unlike the one at the end of
this week, this one tracks farther south and may end up right
across our area. The result is higher chances for rainfall along
with a trend toward cooler weather.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with KAVP the
one exception. KAVP had rain/storms roll through in the late
afternoon-early evening period. Leftover moisture from that
activity has already yielded light fog/some MVFR visibility, yet
high clouds around 20 kft agl will clear out not long after 06Z.
When this occurs, the additional cooling should thicken the fog to
at least IFR VIS at times between 08Z-12Z. Other that that early
morning fog concern for KAVP, a mainly clear sky for all
terminals today into tonight. Variable for light west wind early
this morning, will gradually veer northwest 6-12 kts during the
day and then light northerly or variable this coming night.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday...VFR except for MVFR/IFR pre-dawn valley fog possible
/mainly KELM/.

Thursday-Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms; better chances will be Thursday Night-Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...ABS/KAH
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 310552
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and more comfortable weather is building across our area.
Highs will be around 80 through mid week with overnight lows in
the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8pm update...

Showers and thunderstorms are exiting the region...clearing slowly
now from northwest to southeast through the night. Have removed
the showers and thunderstorms in the last update, and they should
fall off the forecast in NE PA in the next hour or so.

After the front passes tonight a slightly cooler and drier air
mass will settle in across central NY and NE PA. May possibly see
another round of valley fog Tuesday morning with recent rains
providing the necessary low level moisture and sfc temps dropping
off in the relatively clear skies and near calm winds. Confidence
is modest at this time due to the dry and cool nature of the air
mass coming in.

Weather conditions will remain quiet through the day Tuesday with
mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Winds
will be a bit more breezy than in recent memory...so that will
help moderate the temperatures a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1245 PM EDT Update..
High pressure aloft and at the surface will return to central NY
and northeast PA Tues night through Thurs afternoon which will
result in quiet and cool spring weather back to the region. This
will be a nice break from our active pattern we have had over the
last couple of days.

Thurs evening the next storm system will start to impact western NY.
Guidance is starting to slow this system down. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms to develop with this system as well. Shower
may start to impact western NY late Thurs evening.

Temps will rise into the uppr 70s to low 80s each afternoon. Min
temps will range in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
1245 PM EDT Update...
The system mentioned in the discussion above may bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region through Friday night. This system
overall is fast moving and do not expect any concerns with this
feature attm. Another system may impact the region on Sunday which
may bring additional chances of rain to the region.

Temps during this time frame will much closer to the seasonal
average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with KAVP the
one exception. KAVP had rain/storms roll through in the late
afternoon-early evening period. Leftover moisture from that
activity has already yielded light fog/some MVFR visibility, yet
high clouds around 20 kft agl will clear out not long after 06Z.
When this occurs, the additional cooling should thicken the fog to
at least IFR VIS at times between 08Z-12Z. Other that that early
morning fog concern for KAVP, a mainly clear sky for all
terminals today into tonight. Variable for light west wind early
this morning, will gradually veer northwest 6-12 kts during the
day and then light northerly or variable this coming night.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday...VFR except for MVFR/IFR pre-dawn valley fog possible
/mainly KELM/.

Thursday-Friday...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms; better chances will be Thursday Night-Friday.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...ABS/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310242
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1042 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving east of Vermont late this evening is ushering
in a cooler and drier air mass, along with mostly clear skies. Low
temperatures across the region will generally be in the 50s, and
then reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday with much lower
humidity values as compared to recent days. Dry and pleasant
weather will persist Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
As of 1038 PM EDT Monday...Surface cold front has moved east of
VT as of 0230Z with just some lingering mid-upr level clouds
across central and s-central VT. The 2-m dewpoint at BTV dropped
from 64F at 5pm to 50F at 7pm with frontal passage, and overall
air mass is considerably drier compared to the previous couple of
days. Will see more comfortable sleeping weather with the lower
dewpoints and low temps mainly in the 50s areawide for overnight
lows. May see some patchy fog in more sheltered spots after
midnight, but fog potential will be fighting against the drying
and wly 925mb winds 15-20kts much of the night. Wetting rainfall
in the past 24-30hrs suggests there will be some fog/mist, but
would anticipate just intermittent fog around SLK and the river
valleys east of the Green mtn spine, and not becoming dense given
some of the negative factors overnight tonight.

Tuesday will be a dry day with mostly sunny skies under high
pressure and zonal flow aloft. With 925mb temps only 14C-16C highs
should finally drop into the upper 70s across most of the area
with low 80s possible in the Champlain and Connecticut river
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.

ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.

Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR to prevail through the period. Drier
air on WSW winds will inhibit widespread fog overnight with clear
skies but given nearly an inch of rain yesterday still can`t rule
out very localized mvfr-ifr at KSLK and patchy at best and MVFR at
KMPV. Winds pick up from w-nw at 10-15 knots during tuesday.

Outlook 00z Wednesday through Saturday... Primarily VFR TUE NGT-THU
with just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/SLW




000
FXUS61 KALY 310214
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and drier air mass will be ushered into our region tonight
into Tuesday. High pressure over southeast Canada will remain in
control into Thursday with dry conditions and comfortable humidity
levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The last of the scattered showers are exiting the Berkshires and
NW CT and leaving some lingering isolated showers in NW CT
through the rest of this evening. The clearing trend across the
area will continue through the night and just some minor
adjustments to rain chances...sky cover and temperatures through
the night. Fog potential still in question if winds can go calm
later tonight and there are still some questions about
that...especially with dew points gradually drying out through
the night.

Temperatures will be cooler than recent nights as drier air work
in from the west, with lows forecast to be in the lower 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday looks to be another warm day across the region, but due
to deep mixing and gusty west-northwest winds with comfortable
humidity levels. It will not feel as muggy as the past several
days with dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Wind gusts of 20-25
mph will be common with a decent pressure gradient in place.

Winds will decrease Tuesday night as high pressure builds
eastward into Quebec. With a dry air mass in place this will
result in cool mid temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Tranquil
weather will persist Wednesday into Wednesday night, as high
pressure drifts eastward across Quebec and northern New England.
Temperatures look to be slightly above normal during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General upper level zonal flow with small upper impulses tracking
through the zonal flow...with considerable timing and track
differences in sources of long range guidance and ensembles. There
is a broad consensus for two upper impulses...once around Thursday
night and Friday...and another potentially stronger upper
impulse... potentially developing into an upper low...possibly
developing over the Great Lakes and slowly approach later next
weekend and into the beginning of next week.

So...dry weather Thursday ahead of one small piece of upper
energy. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The upper impulse is
quite broad and of low amplitude but indications are a gradual
cooling of boundary layer temperatures and broad low level
convergence supporting scattered showers and maybe isolated
thunderstorms Friday with highs in the 70s...but around 70 higher
terrain.

Some broad flat upper ridging timed for sometime between Friday
night and Sunday morning...again with details not clear because of
spread in sources of guidance. Keeping isolated showers in the
forecast but could very well be dry with periods of sun and
clouds. Highs Saturday in the 70s to around 80.

The aforementioned strong upper energy...possible an upper low
forms around the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday and slowly
approaches with increasing clouds and chances for
showers...perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. More details will
be available as we get nearer. Highs Sunday in the 70s to around
80. Highs Monday with prospects for better coverage of
showers...in the upper 60s to mid 70s...some mid 60s in higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front continues to move across western and central NY this
afternoon. This front will move across eastern NY and western New
England late this afternoon into the overnight period. High
pressure will ridge in late tonight into tomorrow with fair and
dry weather returning.

VFR conditions have returned to all the TAF sites in the wake of
the pre-frontal trough this morning. KPOU has now become VFR and
the skies have started to clear. Expect SCT-BKN cumulus in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range and SCT-BKN cirrus with some isold-sct showers
and thunderstorms especially from KALB-KPSF south and east btwn
20Z/MON to 00Z/TUE. The best chance of thunderstorms will be at
KPSF and KPOU and a tempo group was used from 21Z-24Z for MVFR
conditions...though brief lapses to IFR VSBYS are possible.
Further north...VCSH groups were used. The cold front moves
through in the evening...and the skies clear.

The dewpt boundary lags a bit...so moisture left in the boundary
layer coupled with clearing skies...and light to calm winds will
allow for some MVFR/IFR mist or fog potentially at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
especially btwn 06Z-12Z. Enough mixing in the boundary layer may
preclude any mist at KALB. VFR conditions should return after 12Z
with strong subsidence and deeper mixing in the wake of the front.

The winds will be south to southwest at 6-12 kts this afternoon
with some gusts close to 20 kts at KGFL. The winds will become
light to calm btwn 00Z-04Z. The winds will increase quickly from
the west to northwest at 5-10 kts from 12Z onward.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move eastward across the region late this
afternoon into this evening, bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly from the Capital District south and east. A
cooler and drier air mass will then be ushered in behind the cold
front tonight into Tuesday. High pressure over southeast Canada
will remain in control into Thursday with dry conditions and
comfortable humidity levels.

Relative humidity values will increase to between 80 and 100
percent tonight, then drop to minimum values of around 30 to 40
percent Tuesday afternoon. RH values will increase to between 75
and 90 percent Saturday night.

Winds tonight will be southwest around 5 to 10 mph, becoming
west- northwest around 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph on
Tuesday. Winds Tuesday night will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly south and east of
Albany will persist into the evening hours. Some of the storms
could produce local downpours. They could produce some ponding and
maybe some minor flooding in urban, poor drainage, and low lying
areas. There should be minimal impacts on main stem rivers.

With the passage of a cold front, dry weather will return
overnight into Tuesday. High pressure will build in with dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chance
for showers will return late in the week as a frontal boundary
approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310049
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
849 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down
from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then
retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Updated forecast to lower pops for many areas, but increased them
this evening over some of the NW areas as a slow moving cold
front and outflow boundaries interact with sufficient SBCAPE to
produce showers and scattered thunderstorms. Convection should
diminish as the evening progress with the loss of instability.

Other concern is the coverage and density of fog. Visibilities
have actually improved over the past hour over eastern long island
where fog had reduced the visibility to locally as low as a
quarter mile. Wouldn`t be surprised to see the visibility reduced
again as the evening progresses with fairly light winds, moist low
levels, and moisture pooling along the weakening cold front. Might
need to eventually need to issue an SPS to address patchy dense
fog over the eastern zones at some point this evening.

Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby
Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New
England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest
as high pressure builds from canada.

In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS.

Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior
to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling
conditions.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore
flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for
high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool.
High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep
all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south.
Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a
little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is
therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday.

A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to
roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then
arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops
are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still
in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday.
Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area.
Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through
Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees
below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal.

Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into
Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area
during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and
passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts
present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early
Tuesday.

Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to
the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning,
eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The duration of
IFR and below remains uncertain tonight as well as whether or not
this moves farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR
for city and nearby terminals. Guidance is generally hinting that
this will return...but again the extent remains in question. As
winds shift to the sw aft midnight climatology indicates improvement
at city terminals with IFR or lower conds e...so tried to indicate
this idea into the forecast.

Showers/tstms have been weakening as they move into the area...so
have maintained the vcsh at western terminals this eve. Some
showers from remnants of Bonnie may impact KGON and possibly KISP
late this eve and overnight.

moderate to high confidence in wind forecast. sea breeze develops
at the coast tue aftn.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: occasional gusts up to 20 kt through rest of
eve push. timing of IFR may be several hours off this eve.

KLGA TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KEWR TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KTEB TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR to IFR possible this eve. Timing of
seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue.

KISP TAF Comments: End of IFR conds may be +/- 1-2 hours tue
morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief
MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Dense fog advisory
continues through the entire night.

As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through
Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds
turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough
swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt
and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday,
building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25
kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday,
however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5
ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely
through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday
night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result
in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening.

Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-
     350.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 310048
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
848 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down
from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then
retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Deep moisture feed occurs along the eastern seaboard ahead of
weak upper trough, and surface cold front tonight. With partial
sunshine and increased instability nw of NYC, showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front will make their way toward the
area this evening. Not sure how well this area holds together due
to weak shear, along with waning daytime instability. Will
continue with chance pops along the front tonight, and higher
coverage of showers and possible thunderstorms remains just
offshore of Long Island as well, along the deep moisture axis from
the Carolinas.

Patchy fog will develop, and is in fact continuing along the
southeast coast of Long Island.

Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby
Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New
England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest
as high pressure builds from canada.

In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS.

Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior
to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling
conditions.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore
flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for
high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool.
High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep
all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south.
Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a
little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is
therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday.

A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to
roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then
arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops
are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still
in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday.
Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area.
Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through
Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees
below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal.

Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into
Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area
during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and
passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts
present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early
Tuesday.

Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to
the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning,
eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The duration of
IFR and below remains uncertain tonight as well as whether or not
this moves farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR
for city and nearby terminals. Guidance is generally hinting that
this will return...but again the extent remains in question. As
winds shift to the sw aft midnight climatology indicates improvement
at city terminals with IFR or lower conds e...so tried to indicate
this idea into the forecast.

Showers/tstms have been weakening as they move into the area...so
have maintained the vcsh at western terminals this eve. Some
showers from remnants of Bonnie may impact KGON and possibly KISP
late this eve and overnight.

moderate to high confidence in wind forecast. sea breeze develops
at the coast tue aftn.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: occasional gusts up to 20 kt through rest of
eve push. timing of IFR may be several hours off this eve.

KLGA TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KEWR TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KTEB TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR to IFR possible this eve. Timing of
seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue.

KISP TAF Comments: End of IFR conds may be +/- 1-2 hours tue
morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief
MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Extended the dense fog
advisory for the eastern waters tonight.

As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through
Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds
turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough
swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt
and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday,
building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25
kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday,
however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5
ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely
through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday
night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result
in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening.

Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-
     350.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KBGM 302335
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
735 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will move across northern Pennsylvania and southern
New York late this afternoon and evening. Drier and more
comfortable weather will build across our area tonight through
Wednesday. Highs will be around 80 through mid week with overnight
lows in the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
145 PM Update...
Near term forecast still remains focused around the passage of a
cold front through central NY and NE PA this afternoon and
evening...interacting with an increasingly unstable air mass to
produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Much of the area is
highlighted in the generally thunderstorm outlook from SPC...with
locations south and east of a line from Binghamton to Utica in the
marginal thunderstorm outlook area. Not as hot and humid as
yesterday...but there is a bit more deep layer shear for the
storms to tap into. So...as areas to the east destabilize...the
lift from the cold front and sheared profile will provide the
necessary ingredients for possible strong thunderstorms producing
small hail and gusty winds along with frequent lightning and brief
heavy rain.

After the front passes tonight a slightly cooler and drier air
mass will settle in across central NY and NE PA. May possibly see
another round of valley fog Tuesday morning with recent rains
providing the necessary low level moisture and sfc temps dropping
off in the relatively clear skies and near calm winds. Confidence
is modest at this time due to the dry and cool nature of the air
mass coming in.

Weather conditions will remain quiet through the day Tuesday with
mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Winds
will be a bit more breezy than in recent memory...so that will
help moderate the temperatures a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1245 PM EDT Update..
High pressure aloft and at the surface will return to central NY
and northeast PA Tues night through Thurs afternoon which will
result in quiet and cool spring weather back to the region. This
will be a nice break from our active pattern we have had over the
last couple of days.

Thurs evening the next storm system will start to impact western NY.
Guidance is starting to slow this system down. There will also be a
chance for thunderstorms to develop with this system as well. Shower
may start to impact western NY late Thurs evening.

Temps will rise into the uppr 70s to low 80s each afternoon. Min
temps will range in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
1245 PM EDT Update...
The system mentioned in the discussion above may bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region through Friday night. This system
overall is fast moving and do not expect any concerns with this
feature attm. Another system may impact the region on Sunday which
may bring additional chances of rain to the region.

Temps during this time frame will much closer to the seasonal
average.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Conv associated with a weak cold fnt has passed east of the Taf
sites this evening. Bhd the fnt, vfr conds prevails with lgt
winds. Question of the ngt is the psblty of fog. Drier air has
already entered ELM with a dew pt in the lwr 50s. With a shrt ngt,
xpctd lows in the upr 50s, and contd dry air advecting in, IFR
seems to be unlikely. To the south, AVP got a good shwr and with
dew pts in the lwr 60s, fog a better bet with brief IFR psbl.
otrw, VFR conds ovrngt and thru Tue with hipres.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday Night-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog is
possible during the late night and early morning hours each day.

Thurs & Fri...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...Heden
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...BJT/DGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302331
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
731 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As a cold front pushes across the North Country isolated showers
will remain possible for southern and central Vermont this
afternoon and early evening. Cooler temperatures will be felt
behind the front with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper
50s tonight and near normal tomorrow evening. Dry conditions are
expected Tuesday through Thursday with slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 722 PM EDT Monday...Cold front is sweeping ewd across VT at
7pm with moderately strong low-mid level drying underway. The 2-m
dewpoint at BTV has dropped from 64F at 5pm to 50F at 7pm.
Corresponding mid-level drying appeared to cause substantial
entrainment into incipient convective storms and significantly
limited tstm activity during the past 1-3 hours. Did receive a
report of 0.17" rainfall in Brownington, but coverage of
storms/rainfall was quite limited and the appears to be over at
this point. Will continue to see drying overnight with skies
becoming mostly clear from west to east following frontal passage.
Will see more comfortable sleeping weather with the lower
dewpoints and low temps mainly in the 50s areawide. May see some
patchy fog in more sheltered spots after midnight, but fog
potential will be fighting against the drying and wly 925mb winds
15-20kts much of the night. Wetting rainfall in the past 24-30hrs
suggests there will be some fog/mist, but would anticipate just
intermittent fog around SLK and the river valleys east of the
Green mtn spine, and not becoming dense given some of the negative
factors overnight tonight.

Tuesday will be a dry day with mostly sunny skies under high
pressure and zonal flow aloft. With 925mb temps only 14C-16C highs
should finally drop into the upper 70s across most of the area
with low 80s possible in the Champlain and Connecticut river
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.

ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.

Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Expect VFR to prevail through the daylight
hours today. Expect some scattered to isolated showers possible
for the Vermont terminals this afternoon but the lack of areal
coverage meant that I left mention of showers out of the taf`s for
all sites except MPV. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15
kts late morning through the afternoon hours then become light
overnight. Due to the orientation of the winds and quite steep
lapse rates the Saint Lawrence valley will continue to see gusty
15-20kt winds until the cold front passes through this evening.
Late night there may be from fog developing at both MPV and SLK
due to the winds going calm and the residual moisture from
yesterday and potential rain that falls today.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each
night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will
bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief
intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301940
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 PM EDT Monday...A fair weather CU field has now
developed over the northern Adirondacks as the airmass continues
to become unstable. Expect some isolated pulse style showers to
develop in the vicinity of the advancing cold front leading to
some potential brief rainfall and gusty winds. There were no
significant changes to the forecast. To all those who served and
paid the ultimate price, we honor and remember you this Memorial
Day.

Previous discussion as of 724 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold
front will push across our forecast area today. We will have some
showers in our area, mainly across southern and eastern Vermont.
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be
expected. Temperatures will be more mild than yesterday, therefore
instability will be limited. There should be enough unstable air
to have a few isolated thunderstorms though not mentioning
enhanced wording at this time. Best threat will be central into
South central Vermont. BTV4 and HRRR both showing a line develop
this afternoon around 18z near the Champlain valley and then
pushing eastward through 00z. Maximum temperatures today will be
in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will move into the region
overnight behind departing cold front. Min temperatures will be in
the mid 50s to around 60. Any showers remaining will die down with
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.

ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.

Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Expect VFR to prevail through the daylight
hours today. Expect some scattered to isolated showers possible
for the Vermont terminals this afternoon but the lack of areal
coverage meant that I left mention of showers out of the taf`s for
all sites except MPV. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15
kts late morning through the afternoon hours then become light
overnight. Due to the orientation of the winds and quite steep
lapse rates the Saint Lawrence valley will continue to see gusty
15-20kt winds until the cold front passes through this evening.
Late night there may be from fog developing at both MPV and SLK
due to the winds going calm and the residual moisture from
yesterday and potential rain that falls today.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each
night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will
bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief
intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Neiles




000
FXUS61 KALY 301759
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
159 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and its associated cold front will
cross this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 116 PM EDT...A cold front continues to approach from
western/central NY and the eastern Great Lakes Region early this
afternoon. Clouds have been eroding across eastern portions of the
area, which were mostly cloudy through much of the morning.
Showers still have not developed as of 1 pm, so delayed timing of
onset of any precip until after 2 pm.

Sfc dewpts continue to be in the 60s ahead of the cold front, and
some destabilization will occur with the NAM indicating SBCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. The deep shear /0-6 km/ is in the 30-35
kt range. Some multicells or a multicell line may fire from around
or just southeast of the Capital Region...southern VT...and the
eastern Catskills between 2-5 pm. The latest HRRR indicates the
best activity will be around and south of the Capital Region,
focusing more in the mid-Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT from
5-8 pm. Some locally heavy rainfall is still possible with PWATS
in the 1.25-1.75" range. Gusty winds will be a threat and perhaps
a rogue severe storm or two with 50 kt or greater winds. The
limiter is weak mid level lapse rates...and perhaps limited time
for southern NY to destabilize. The marginal risk continues to
look reasonable for this afternoon from SPC. Highs will generally
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few mid 80s will be possible in
the Hudson River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Well folks, this will be my last AFD I will ever issue. It is hard
to believe the time has come for me to retire. It has been a
pleasure serving the public and community since April 4, 1995, the
first day I worked at Albany.

The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.

Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.

Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.

Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.

Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.

By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
our region.

Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.

The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the
region.

While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.

By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.

Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front continues to move across western and central NY this
afternoon. This front will move across eastern NY and western New
England late this afternoon into the overnight period. High
pressure will ridge in late tonight into tomorrow with fair and
dry weather returning.

VFR conditions have returned to all the TAF sites in the wake of
the pre-frontal trough this morning. KPOU has now become VFR and
the skies have started to clear. Expect SCT-BKN cumulus in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range and SCT-BKN cirrus with some isold-sct
showers and thunderstorms especially from KALB-KPSF south and east
btwn 20Z/MON to 00Z/TUE. The best chance of thunderstorms will be
at KPSF and KPOU and a tempo group was used from 21Z-24Z for MVFR
conditions...though brief lapses to IFR VSBYS are possible.
Further north...VCSH groups were used. The cold front moves
through in the evening...and the skies clear.

The dewpt boundary lags a bit...so moisture left in the boundary
layer coupled with clearing skies...and light to calm winds will
allow for some MVFR/IFR mist or fog potentially at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
especially btwn 06Z-12Z. Enough mixing in the boundary layer may
preclude any mist at KALB. VFR conditions should return after 12Z
with strong subsidence and deeper mixing in the wake of the front.

The winds will be south to southwest at 6-12 kts this afternoon
with some gusts close to 20 kts at KGFL. The winds will become
light to calm btwn 00Z-04Z. The winds will increase quickly from
the west to northwest at 5-10 kts from 12Z onward.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.

Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.

More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and
streams.


With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EDT Monday...A fair weather CU field has now
developed over the northern Adirondacks as the airmass continues
to become unstable. Expect some isolated pulse style showers to
develop in the vicinity of the advancing cold front leading to
some potential brief rainfall and gusty winds. There were no
significant changes to the forecast. To all those who served and
paid the ultimate price, we honor and remember you this Memorial
Day.

Previous discussion as of 724 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold
front will push across our forecast area today. We will have some
showers in our area, mainly across southern and eastern Vermont.
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be
expected. Temperatures will be more mild than yesterday, therefore
instability will be limited. There should be enough unstable air
to have a few isolated thunderstorms though not mentioning
enhanced wording at this time. Best threat will be central into
South central Vermont. BTV4 and HRRR both showing a line develop
this afternoon around 18z near the Champlain valley and then
pushing eastward through 00z. Maximum temperatures today will be
in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will move into the region
overnight behind departing cold front. Min temperatures will be in
the mid 50s to around 60. Any showers remaining will die down with
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development
of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our
northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the
degree to which it digs south and east over time and what
interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-
Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this
overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for
showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next
Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows
mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Expect VFR to prevail through the daylight
hours today. Expect some scattered to isolated showers possible
for the Vermont terminals this afternoon but the lack of areal
coverage meant that I left mention of showers out of the taf`s for
all sites except MPV. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15
kts late morning through the afternoon hours then become light
overnight. Due to the orientation of the winds and quite steep
lapse rates the Saint Lawrence valley will continue to see gusty
15-20kt winds until the cold front passes through this evening.
Late night there may be from fog developing at both MPV and SLK
due to the winds going calm and the residual moisture from
yesterday and potential rain that falls today.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each
night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will
bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief
intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Deal/Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301731
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
131 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered from the western Great Lakes to the
Mississippi Valley early this afternoon...will move to New England
by Wednesday afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will return
Thursday ahead of the next cold front that will move through the
region by Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Very dry airmass from H8 to H4 per 12Z regional soundings over the
Great lakes and this airmass will remain in place through Tuesday.
Scattered cumulus clouds will dissipate this evening...and will
reform Tuesday afternoon along and inland from the lake breezes. Low
level moisture in the southern tier valleys will condense into fog
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday evening a weak mid level trough and surface front will swing
east through Quebec, with the trailing weak surface boundary sagging
slowly south across the area. This system will be moisture starved
with nothing more than a few evening clouds across the North
Country, and a subtle wind shift for the remainder of the area. High
pressure will then build into Quebec overnight with clearing skies.
The clear skies and drier airmass will allow for good radiational
cooling with lows in the low to mid 50s in most areas, and upper 40s
in some of the cooler Southern Tier Valleys and Tug Hill region.

On Wednesday high pressure will build east across Quebec and
northern New England, with subsidence and drying extending down into
the lower Great Lakes and providing ample sunshine and low humidity.
High temperatures will reach the upper 70s in most areas, with
northeast flow keeping the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler.

Later Wednesday night and Thursday a mid level trough and surface
low will move into northwest Ontario province just north of Lake
Superior, while a surface cold front moves into the central Great
Lakes Wednesday night and crosses our region on Thursday. The latest
12Z model runs continue to speed up this system by a few hours over
previous runs, with showers possibly reaching far western NY as
early as late Wednesday night. A better chance of rain will arrive
Thursday as the cold front moves from west to east across the area.
The stronger large scale forcing will remain over the western Great
Lakes in closer proximity to the mid level trough, but there is
enough large scale ascent from a weak mid level shortwave and upper
level jet combined with low level convergence along the front to
justify increasing POPS into the likely range for Thursday and
Thursday evening. Instability will increase just ahead of the front
with SBCAPE reaching 1000J/kg, supporting a few scattered
thunderstorms as well.

Thursday night any showers and scattered thunderstorms will end from
west to east following the passage of the cold front as drier air
advects into the lower Great Lakes. Expect the last of the rain to
clear the eastern Lake Ontario region by daybreak Friday.

On Friday humidity will be on the way down again behind the front as
a drier airmass builds into the region. Skies will partially clear,
although diurnal cumulus will likely form along and inland from the
lake breeze boundaries yielding a mix of sun and clouds for the
afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is high confidence that the first weekend of June will be much
more comfortable than the about to end Memorial Day Weekend...as a
notable pattern change will take place across the continent.

As we push through the first weekend of June...the near zonal flow
along the length of the Canadian border will then buckle as
anomalously strong ridging will blossom across the Inter-Mountain
West. The resulting downstream troughing over the Great Lakes Region
will allow cooler...more comfortable Canadian air to pour south.
With H85 temps averaging in the single digits C...daytime highs will
be in the 70s F...right where they should be for this point in the
warm season.

In terms of precipitation...high pressure situated over the Great
Lakes should supply our region with mainly dry weather.

A look further down the road...
Medium range ensembles strongly suggest that the longwave trough
will not only remain in place over eastern Canada and the Great
Lakes region through the first full week of June...but that a deep
upper level low will close off over Quebec. This would keep any
oppressive heat and humidity well south of our region...with
temperatures likely settling to below normal values. This scenario
is also supported by the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature
forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the 18Z Tuesday for most locations. There is a low
chance for IFR conditions at KJHW between 08Z and 11Z as patchy fog
may form. Surface winds at or below 15 knots.

Outlook...
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly dry conditions expected through Wednesday under high
pressure. Winds will increase to around 15 knots which will produce
choppy wave action but still well below small craft advisory
criteria. A cold front passing through late Thursday may bring
thunderstorms with gusty winds and higher waves. High pressure will
build into the area late Friday and Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301617
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1217 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon, then crosses the Tri-State tonight. High pressure then
builds down from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through
Thursday, then retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold
front approaches from the west on Friday, then moves across the
region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry conditions initially, with main area of showers offshore.

Updated probabilities based on latest radar trends, and latest
mesoscale model solutions. Slight chance to chance coverage for
showers/possible thunderstorms expected early this afternoon.
Then convection should fire upstream along the front per hrrr/arw
and nmm.

Noting expected gap in precipitation and breaks in the clouds,
could see CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg across interior portions of the
Lower Hudson Valley/SW CT/NE NJ mid to late afternoon. If these
CAPES are achieved, then isolated strong storms would be possible
with 30-35 kt of Bulk Shear. However the main issue likely would
be locally heavy rainfall.

With some sunshine, highs should exceed 80 degrees, with 70s east
of NYC due to clouds/onshore flow.

There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of
rip current formation at Atlantic beaches through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A 700-500 hPa shortwave crosses the area tonight...bringing with
it mainly scattered showers mainly this evening...except over far
se CT/Twin Forks of Long Island where they should be more numerous
and linger into the overnight hours.

Might see showers linger over the Twin Forks into Tuesday
morning, otherwise the day should be dry as the low levels dry out
with a NW boundary layer flow. This should be enough to overcome
forcing from the passing of a flattening 700-500 hPa trough axis.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values around 10 degrees above
normal. On Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and a mix down from 850-825 hPa, per BUFKIT
soundings, was used for highs. Readings should be around 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridging will build over the region Wednesday and then
shift eastward towards eastern New England and then the Canadian
Maritimes on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will traverse
across New England on Wednesday and then situate itself over the
Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. While the core of the high moves
east, it will ridge down across the area. The 00z models and
ensembles are in good agreement on this pattern.

A northern stream shortwave trough is progged to moved across SE
Canada on Thursday which will help push the upper ridge to the east.
NHC`s 11pm advisory show the remnant circulation of Bonnie moving
off the Carolina coast Wednesday night and then passing around 100
miles south and east of the 40/70 Benchmark. Most of the tropical
moisture with the remnants are expected to remain well offshore.
This is because of the approaching shortwave and increasing
westerlies aloft associated with it. Will continue to advertise a
slight chance of a shower for the far SE portion of the area, but
think subsidence from the high to the NE will keep conditions mostly
dry.

Models diverge on the timing and amplitude of the passing shortwave
trough Friday into Saturday. Differences continue to grow with the
h5 pattern into the weekend. The cold front will slowly approach
from the west Thursday night into Friday and then should move
through on Saturday. Have kept pops in the low chance category this
time frame. It will not be raining the whole time, but cannot rule
out a few showers with the front in the vicinity. Instability is
lacking, but have left mention of thunder Friday into Saturday with
the front.

Another shortwave establishes itself late Saturday into Sunday
across the Great Lakes region and this is likely to approach late in
the weekend. However, there is a lot of spread on how amplified the
shortwave gets and how strong the downstream ridge ends up which
will ultimately determine the timing of any precipitation. Since
this a day 7 forecast, do not want to go to far from a model
consensus at this time.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be near to slightly above normal.
Onshore flow Thursday and Friday should keep temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Seasonable temperatures forecast this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will approach, moving across late tonight.

Conditions now vary from VFR to LIFR across the region. Drier air
moving in will allow cigs to lift to MVFR and eventually VFR
throughout today from west to east. There will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon...especially late...with
the greatest chances NW of the city terminals. However, confidence
is too low to include in TAFs.

Low confidence forecast tonight. Onshore flow plus low level
moisture may result in patchy fog with IFR conditions, but drier
air aloft may limit this potential until after midnight tonight.

Winds dependent on cloud cover. If flight cat improves earlier
than expected NYC metro and coastal terminals could see stronger
sustained S-SW winds and also gusts close to 20 kt this afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR possible before 18Z. There could be
occasional gusts up to 20 kt late this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR possible before 18Z. Winds could be 3-5 kt
higher than forecast mid to late this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast mid
to late this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR will be temporary into early this
afternoon. Winds could be 3-5 kt higher than forecast mid
to late this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR may last 1-2 hours later than indicated in
the TAF. Late day tstm possible after 21Z.

KISP TAF Comments: End time of IFR uncertain and could vary 1-3
hours compared to forecast. Winds could be stronger than fcst
mid to late this afternoon with ocnl gusts 20-25 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Tuesday-Wednesday night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions, and
possibly an afternoon tstm.

&&

.MARINE...
Extended the dense fog advisory for eastern waters per obs and
latest forecast guidance. Will monitor to see if dense fog adv
needs to extend into tonight for these eastern waters.

A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region will limit
sustained winds to 15 kt or less through Tuesday. For now, it
appears that there will not be a significant enough swell to bring
seas to SCA levels through Tuesday. It should be noted though,
that there is still some uncertainty with how much significant swell,
if any, the coastal ocean waters will experience early this week
from Tropical Depression Bonnie.

Sub-sca conditions are expected Tuesday Night and Wednesday with
winds less than 20 kt and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft.

Uncertainty remains on how much residual swell will exist Thursday
into Friday as remnants of Bonnie pass south and east of the waters.
It is possible seas approach 5 ft during this time on the ocean.
Winds could also approach sca levels on the ocean on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Other than possible scattered showers and thunderstorms, no
additional significant rainfall is expected through the afternoon.

Any thunderstorm could result in minor urban and small stream
flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ330-
     340-345-350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/DS
NEAR TERM...Maloit/DS/PW
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Goodman/JM
MARINE...Maloit/DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/DS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301457
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1057 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Monday...A much cooler start to Memorial Day
than yesterday with most areas just warming up to the low to mid
70s by 11am. The stable marine layer over eastern Vermont is
finally pushing east and so I anticipate warming there from the
low to mid 60s into the upper 70s to low 80s with peak heating
today. We currently are positioned in a dry slot between the
marine layer to the east and the advancing cold front over the
Great Lakes. That dry slot has lead to clearing for most of the
North Country with only a few clouds in the skies across Northern
New York and the Champlain Valley. The current forecast is in good
shape with no changes needed. Enjoy your Memorial Day.

Previous discussion as of 724 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold
front will push across our forecast area today. We will have some
showers in our area, mainly across southern and eastern Vermont.
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be
expected. Temperatures will be more mild than yesterday, therefore
instability will be limited. There should be enough unstable air
to have a few isolated thunderstorms though not mentioning
enhanced wording at this time. Best threat will be central into
South central Vermont. BTV4 and HRRR both showing a line develop
this afternoon around 18z near the Champlain valley and then
pushing eastward through 00z. Maximum temperatures today will be
in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will move into the region
overnight behind departing cold front. Min temperatures will be in
the mid 50s to around 60. Any showers remaining will die down with
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development
of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our
northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the
degree to which it digs south and east over time and what
interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-
Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this
overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for
showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next
Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows
mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Generally VFR for the daylight hours today.
May see some additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak
afternoon heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development
across central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally
S-SW 10-15 kts late morning through the afternoon hours then
become light overnight.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBGM 301030
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
630 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible,
especially over northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. Drier
and more comfortable weather will build across our area tonight
through Wednesday. Highs will be around 80 through mid week with
overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
450 AM Update...

We remain on the northwest extent of steadier rain this morning.
Pockets of intense rainfall over the Finger Lakes and parts of
Central NY late yesterday from thunderstorms has subsided. The
more steady rain moving up the coast has been heaviest just south
and east of our area, with rainfall amounts averaging around a few
tenths in NEPA but closing in on one inch over southern Pike. This
area of rain will continue to move east with light rain ending
from west to east this morning.

Later today a cold front will move through, bringing another round
of showers and thunderstorms to the area.  Higher resolution
model guidance suggest an initiation along the cold front around
18Z between Elmira and Binghamton, with the line moving into
Northeast PA and the Catskills between 18Z and 0Z. The NMM and ARW
are farther west and more discrete with the line, while the HRRR
is not quite as pronounced or as far west. Based on some
uncertainity with where the initiation occurs, I painted a broad
area of 30% to 40% for rainfall chances from roughly Towanda to
Binghamton to Norwich south and east.

SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather from the
Catskills westward toward the Binghamton area. The marginal risk
area is on a line roughly from Towanda to Cortland to Utica, and
points south and east. MLCAPE values are very minimal or roughly
300 - 500 J/KG. Inverted V soundings and some dry air in the mid
levels would support some gusty winds (main threat highlighted by
SPC) but model winds are 30 KTS or less up through 20,000 feet.
With the minimal cape and weak wind fields, see a minimal risk
for true severe wind, with the more likely outcome thunderstorms
with gusty winds at best (30 mph). Any convection dies down this
evening. Given the marginal risk area by SPC I did add this
wording to the HWO for mention of gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
500 AM Update...

Quiet, cooler, and more comfortable. High pressure building out of
the Ohio Valley keeps is the main weather feature during this
period. Daytime highs will be around 80 with lows on the cool side
or in the 50s. A nice break for the ACs which got an early season
test!

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 pm Update...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region
Wednesday through Thursday...with quiet weather and highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows remain steady into the
weekend as well...in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A fast-moving cold front will track from the eastern Great Lakes
into New England Thursday night through Friday night...producing
another round of showers and storms. A slightly cooler and drier
air mass will move in behind this front late Saturday and Sunday
with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Today...Generally VFR. Fog creating below airport minimums at
KELM for first 1-2 hours before dissipating. Winds becoming S-SW
5-10 knots this morning, then W-NW 10G15 knots this afternoon.
Scattered TSRA possible this afternoon which could affect mainly
KBGM-KAVP from 17Z-23Z. Confidence better at KAVP and timing is
outside the first nine hour PROB30 forecast restriction so have
mentioned in TAF. Confidence of occurrence at KBGM not high enough
for TEMPO at this time, and is therefore not explicitly in forecast,
but pilots should monitor TSRA development across CNY closely
today.

Tonight...VFR with areas of late night MVFR fog at KELM, and
possibly KAVP. Winds remaining light NW, or becoming
light/variable at favored locations.

OUTLOOK...

Tuesday-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog is
possible during the late night and early morning hours each day.

Thurs & Fri...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Heden
NEAR TERM...Heden
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...JAB




000
FXUS61 KOKX 301027
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
627 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the eastern Great Lakes today, then
crosses the Tri-State tonight. High pressure then builds down from
southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then retreats
to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the
west on Friday, then moves across the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have continued the trend that has been shown with the mesoscale
models of bringing the heaviest and most widespread bands of rain
to an end by mid to late morning from west to east.

Locally heavy rainfall remains a threat with minor urban flooding,
especially east of the Hudson River as this is where the heaviest
rain is now occurring. Have received reports of minor flooding
withing the NYC metro, western Long Island, and portions of
southern CT. Bands of heavy rain will continue to progress east
over the next few hours.

Main axis of heavy rain should lie just south and east of Long
Island this afternoon. There continue to be indications that a
second round of showers/thunderstorms by late afternoon over far W
zones ahead of the cold front. Noting expected gap in
precipitation and some breaks in the clouds, could see CAPES of
1000-1500 J/kg across interior portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley/SW CT/NE NJ. If these CAPES are achieved, then isolated
strong storms would be possible with 30-35 kt of Bulk Shear.
However the main issue likely would be locally heavy rainfall.

For highs today, a blend of MAV/MET/ECS guidance, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and a mix down from 975-900 hPa, per BUFKIT
soundings, was used. Highs should be a around 2-5 degrees above
normal.

There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of
rip current formation at Atlantic beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A 700-500 hPa shortwave crosses the area tonight...bring with it
mainly scattered showers mainly this evening...except over far se
CT/Twin Forks of Long Island where they should be more numerous
and linger into the overnight hours.

Might see showers linger over the Twin Forks into Tuesday
morning, otherwise the day should be dry as the low levels dry out
with a NW boundary layer flow. This should be enough to overcome
forcing from the passing of a flattening 700-500 hPa trough axis.

For lows tonight, a blend of MAV/ECS/MET guidance and NAM 2-meter
temperatures was used, with values around 10 degrees above
normal. On Tuesday, a blend of ECS/MET/MAV guidance, NAM 2-meter
temperatures and a mix down from 850-825 hPa, per BUFKIT
soundings, was used for highs. reading should be around 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridging will build over the region Wednesday and then
shift eastward towards eastern New England and then the Canadian
Maritimes on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will traverse
across New England on Wednesday and then situate itself over the
Canadian Maritimes on Thursday. While the core of the high moves
east, it will ridge down across the area. The 00z models and
ensembles are in good agreement on this pattern.

A northern stream shortwave trough is progged to moved across SE
Canada on Thursday which will help push the upper ridge to the east.
NHC`s 11pm advisory show the remnant circulation of Bonnie moving
off the Carolina coast Wednesday night and then passing around 100
miles south and east of the 40/70 Benchmark. Most of the tropical
moisture with the remnants are expected to remain well offshore.
This is because of the approaching shortwave and increasing
westerlies aloft associated with it. Will continue to advertise a
slight chance of a shower for the far SE portion of the area, but
think subsidence from the high to the NE will keep conditions mostly
dry.

Models diverge on the timing and amplitude of the passing shortwave
trough Friday into Saturday. Differences continue to grow with the
h5 pattern into the weekend. The cold front will slowly approach
from the west Thursday night into Friday and then should move
through on Saturday. Have kept pops in the low chance category this
time frame. It will not be raining the whole time, but cannot rule
out a few showers with the front in the vicinity. Instability is
lacking, but have left mention of thunder Friday into Saturday with
the front.

Another shortwave establishes itself late Saturday into Sunday
across the Great Lakes region and this is likely to approach late in
the weekend. However, there is a lot of spread on how amplified the
shortwave gets and how strong the downstream ridge ends up which
will ultimately determine the timing of any precipitation. Since
this a day 7 forecast, do not want to go to far from a model
consensus at this time.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be near to slightly above normal.
Onshore flow Thursday and Friday should keep temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Seasonable temperatures forecast this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough over the area will weaken today. A cold
front will move across tonight.

Mainly IFR/LIFR conditions continue, with low clouds/fog along
the coast and with moderate/heavy showers and isolated tstms.
Last area of heavy showers/tstms moving across central NJ between
09Z-10Z should clear NYC metro before 12Z. Prevailing conditions
should gradually improve to MVFR by late morning or midday as low
level dry out, with the exception of KGON, which should remain
IFR this afternoon. As the cold front approaches, KSWF could
experience at least vicinity impact from any accompanying tstms.
Expect widespread IFR/LIFR to return tonight especially along
the coast.

Fairly good confidence in winds, except for timing of wind shift
at KBDR/KGON where easterly flow persists attm and may be stubborn
to give way to southerly flow.


     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing and degree of improvement today
uncertain and may require frequent updates. Higher confidence
in winds.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing and degree of improvement today somewhat
uncertain and may require frequent updates. Higher confidence
in winds.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing and degree of improvement today somewhat
uncertain and may require frequent updates. Higher confidence
in winds.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is green...which
implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing and degree of improvement today
somewhat uncertain and may require frequent updates. Higher
confidence in winds.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing and degree of improvement today somewhat
uncertain and may require frequent updates. Higher confidence
in winds.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing and degree of improvement today somewhat
uncertain and may require frequent updates. Higher confidence
in winds.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Late Tonight...Cold fropa with a chance of showers and
MVFR/IFR conds.
.Tuesday-Wednesday night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions, and
possibly an afternoon tstm.

&&

.MARINE...
A quick check of web cams shows dense fog persisting over area
waters, so have extended the dense fog advisory over all coastal
waters until noon.

A light to moderate pressure gradient over the region will limit
sustained winds to 15 kt or less through Tuesday. For now, it
appears that there will not be a significant enough swell to bring
seas to SCA levels through Tuesday. It should be noted though,
that there is still some uncertainty with how much significant swell,
if any, the coastal ocean waters will experience early this week
from Tropical Depression Bonnie.

Sub-sca conditions are expected Tuesday Night and Wednesday with
winds less than 20 kt and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft.

Uncertainty remains on how much residual swell will exist Thursday
into Friday as remnants of Bonnie pass south and east of the waters.
It is possible seas approach 5 ft during this time on the ocean.
Winds could also approach sca levels on the ocean on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An additional 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rain is forecast through
this evening, with locally higher amounts likely. The heaviest
rain totals are most likely over far se CT and eastern Long
Island. This rain will cause areas of minor urban and small stream
flooding...and might cause localized flash flooding as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Maloit/DS
NEAR TERM...Maloit/DS
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...Maloit/DS
HYDROLOGY...Maloit/DS




000
FXUS61 KALY 300922
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
525 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and its associated cold front will cross our
region later today. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT...Another batch of moderate to locally heavy rain
was working quickly across Litchfield county, but otherwise to our
east and fairly quickly moving further east. More scattered showers
were upstream but to far our west, already some drying and partial
clearing was noted.

A cold front working through the eastern Great Lakes and eastern
Ohio valley was moving to the east.

Temperatures ranged from the lower 60s to around 70 throughout our
region. They will only drop a few more points due to increase cloud
cover preventing much additional cooling. So lows mainly in the 60s
across the region, upper 60s locally in the Capital region...with
some upper 50s across the Adirondacks.

After sunrise, a theta-e ridge will shift to our east, as well as
the 2.0 inch PWATs over our region earlier. Drier air in the mid
levels looks as it will actually reduce shower activity this morning
to widely scattered or isolated. The day will still start of
cloudy, but a lot of the lower clouds should dissipate by midday.

Still, with the cold front upstream, SBCAPE values look to ramp up
to 500-1000 J/KG...highest to the southeast of the Capital region.
Even with modest lapse rates, a bulk shear of around 30 KTS should
be enough to develop some locally robust thunderstorms which could
contain gusty winds. We have added enhanced wording (just gusty
winds) during the afternoon, since SPC has placed most of our region
in Marginal risk today.

High temperatures will depend on cloud cover. If clouds were to hold
tough, they could end up mainly in the 70s. However we believe there
will be at least partial sunshine midday on, which along with a
south wind becoming southwest to westerly during the afternoon,
would allow for temperatures to reach 80-85 in most valley
locations, mid to upper 70s over the higher elevations.

Dewpoints look to be still be elevated in the 60s, slowly starting
to come down late in the day as a pre-frontal trough works across
the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.

Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.

Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.

Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.

Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.

By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
our region.

Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.

The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the
region.

While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.

By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.

Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another batch of rain/showers was approaching as the current VFR
conditions should begin to drop back to MVFR overnight.  Within the
heavier rainfall, as per upstream observations, there will be a
chance for IFR late tonight as we will place TEMPO groups and
monitor trends.  At this time, the best chance for IFR conditions
would be at KPOU-KPSF per the orientation of the showers/rain
tracking northeast.  Otherwise, a light southerly breeze should
prevail overnight.

The batch of showers/rain should diminish from west to east Monday
morning with improvements back to VFR for the Hudson Valley TAFs but
likely lingering within the MVFR thresholds for KPSF due to
favorable upslope and westerly winds.  A cold front is still set to
track across the region from late morning into the afternoon hours
where sct-bkn line of convection may develop.  For now, a VCSH will
be placed until confidence increases.  Southerly winds begin toward
a westerly component toward Noon at speeds 10kts or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.

Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.

More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and
streams.


With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
438 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold front will push across
our forecast area today. We will have some showers in our area,
mainly across southern and eastern vermont. Scattered showers with
a few embedded thunderstorms can be expected. Temperatures will be
more mild than yesterday, therefore instability will be limited.
There should be enough unstable air to have a few isolated
thunderstorms though not mentioning enhanced wording at this time.
Best threat will be central into South central Vermont. Maximum
temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will
move into the region overnight behind departing cold front. Min
temperatures will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development
of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our
northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the
degree to which it digs south and east over time and what
interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-
Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this
overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for
showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next
Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows
mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06z Tuesday...concerned with areas of BR possible with
locally dense fog at SLK due to today`s rainfall. May see 4-6sm BR
at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn period.
Generally VFR for the daylight hours on today. May see some
additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak afternoon
heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development across
central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW
10-15kts late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300735
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as an upper level shortwave tracks through the North
Country. Locally heavy downpours remain possible. Expect
additional showers again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler
high temperatures. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through
Thursday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s
and lower humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 117 AM EDT Monday...Moist plume (precipitable water values
of 1.5" to 1.6") will remain over the North Country overnight in
advance of sfc cold front moving ewd across Southeastern Ontario
and Lake Erie at 02Z. Instability has waned across the region, a
combination of loss of daytime heating and broad region of shower
and thunderstorm activity that has affected the region this
afternoon and evening, and associated rain cooled low-level air
now in place. We did see a few areas of damaging winds earlier
today around St. Albans/Sheldon VT and also Essex County NY near
Lake Champlain with separate thunderstorms. Also, radar estimated
rainfall in excess of 4" indicated along the nrn slopes of the
Adirondacks (central Franklin County NY) with training
thunderstorm activity mid-late aftn. This occurred largely in a
wilderness area, with no reports of flooding thus far. Please
refer to our local storm reports for specific details on storm
damage and any future flooding reports that we may acquire.

500mb ridge continues to break down overnight in response to
shortwave trough crossing the Eastern Great Lakes. Moderately
high PW values, mid-level height falls, and increasingly cyclonic
flow will maintain chances for shower activity overnight, though
overall coverage of rainfall should decrease. An additional
0.2-0.3" rainfall is possible through the remainder of the
overnight period. Will see low temperatures mainly in the low to
mid 60s, with cooler temps across Eastern VT with some marine
modified air working into Eastern VT on light E-SE flow (lows in
the Upper 50s in this region). Given today`s rainfall, will see
patchy fog overnight, especially in the valleys within the nrn
Adirondack region where rainfall was locally heaviest.

For Memorial Day, anticipate another day of scattered showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms. It won`t be quite as warm as
today so instability will be limited however through will be
enough unstable air to see a few isolated thunderstorms. Best
threat central into s-central VT. Expected max temps tomorrow will
be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts
to push through the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development of a
larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our northwest
and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the degree
to which it digs south and east over time and what interaction, if
any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-Atlantic/southeast.
Given at least the broader consensus in this overall troughing
scenario will bring solid chance pops for showers and possibly a few
storms by later Sunday onward into next Monday. Temperatures should
remain within a few degrees of seasonable levels with daily highs in
the 70s and overnight lows mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06z Tuesday...concerned with areas of BR possible with
locally dense fog at SLK due to today`s rainfall. May see 4-6sm
BR at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn period.
Generally VFR for the daylight hours on today. May see some
additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak afternoon
heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development across
central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW
10-15kts late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/Neiles
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Banacos/Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300604
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
204 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and bring a
return to somewhat cooler and less humid air for Memorial Day
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Convection across the region continues to slowly weaken with the
loss of diurnal heating and is shifting eastward. A cold front
crossing Southern Ontario and the Lake Erie basin will cross the
forecast area overnight and early Monday. By the time the frontal
forcing reaches western NY, it may produce a few scattered
showers, but weak convergence and limited instability by this time
of night should keep the activity weak with limited areal
coverage.

It will remain mild and humid most of the night until the front
arrives, with lower humidity reaching western NY around daybreak
with the cold frontal passage. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s
on the lake plains, with lower 60s across the cooler Southern Tier
valleys and Tug Hill region.

On Memorial Day Monday the cold front will move east across the area
during the morning, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region and
central NY by midday or early afternoon. Prior to the frontal
passage there may still be a lingering shower or isolated
thunderstorm east of the Genesee Valley. Otherwise western NY will
dry out by early morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region will
be dry from early afternoon on. Behind the front skies will
partially clear, although diurnal cumulus will develop along and
inland from the lake breezes during the afternoon yielding a mix of
sun and clouds. Stable lake shadows east of the lakes will bring
more full sunshine along the Lake Erie shore and near Watertown.

Less humid air will filter into the area from west to east through
the day. Temperatures will still top out in the lower 80s across
lower elevations away from the lakeshores, with upper 70s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
After a comfortable night when temperatures will have returned to
the 50s for the first time in nearly a week...we can look forward to
simply outstanding weather on Tuesday as high pressure nosing south
from Hudson Bay will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This will provide
our region with sun filled skies and very comfortable conditions as
max temps within a couple degrees of 80 will be accompanied by low
humidity. This will prove to be an excellent day for outdoor
activities.

Tuesday night will once again feature very comfortable sleeping
conditions...as a dry Canadian airmass and light winds will
encourage temperatures to once again drop off into the 50s.

On Wednesday...our region will find itself wedged between the
remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie along the Carolina coastline and
an approaching frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes. The
large scale subsidence between the two systems will combine with the
residual dry airmass to guarantee another day of full sunshine. It
will be warmer though...as temperatures are expected to climb back
into the low to mid 80s. The exception will be within 5-10 miles of
the south shore of Lake Ontario...where a northeast low level flow
will hold afternoon temperatures in the 70s. This northeast flow
will also keep dew points from climbing out of the 50s...so the
higher temperatures will be easier to tolerate.

A short lived push of warmer...more humid conditions will be
experienced over our region in advance of a cold front Wednesday
night and Thursday. The deepening southerly flow on the backside of
the exiting ridge but ahead of the front will push our dew points
back up towards 60...especially over the far western counties. This
will once again set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms as
the aforementioned cold front Thursday afternoon and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is high confidence that the first weekend of June will be much
more comfortable than the about to end Memorial Day Weekend...as a
notable pattern change will take place across the continent.

The Western Atlantic Ridge responsible for record heat...and even
for helping to fuel scattered strong to severe convection over the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Regions...will give way to a
progressive low amplitude flow during the course of the week. As we
push through the first weekend of June...the near zonal flow along
the length of the Canadian border will then buckle as anomalously
strong ridging will blossom across the Inter-Mountain West. The
resulting downstream troughing over the Great Lakes Region will
allow cooler...more comfortable Canadian air to pour south. With H85
temps averaging in the single digits C...daytime highs will be in
the 70s F...right where they should be for this point in the warm
season.

In terms of precipitation...high pressure situated over the Great
Lakes should supply our region with mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect any lingering showers to continue to weaken and shift
eastward into Central NY, with VFR conditions prevailing. A weak
cold front will cross the area overnight and early Monday with a few
more showers, but with sparse coverage. There will likely be a brief
period of MVFR CIGS just behind the front for a few hours early
Monday morning across western NY. By mid to late morning VFR should
prevail with drier air moving into the region, leading to a
prolonged period of fine weather for the next few days.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the region tonight and clean out the heat
and humidity, with mainly dry conditions expected on Memorial Day.
Winds will increase somewhat on Memorial Day, up to about 15 knots
which will produce choppy wave action but still well below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300555
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
155 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and bring a
return to somewhat cooler and less humid air for Memorial Day
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Convection across the region continues to slowly weaken with the
loss of diurnal heating and is shifting eastward. A cold front
crossing Southern Ontario and the Lake Erie basin will cross the
forecast area overnight and early Monday. By the time the frontal
forcing reaches western NY, it may produce a few scattered
showers, but weak convergence and limited instability by this time
of night should keep the activity weak with limited areal
coverage.

It will remain mild and humid most of the night until the front
arrives, with lower humidity reaching western NY around daybreak
with the cold frontal passage. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s
on the lake plains, with lower 60s across the cooler Southern Tier
valleys and Tug Hill region.

On Memorial Day Monday the cold front will move east across the area
during the morning, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region and
central NY by midday or early afternoon. Prior to the frontal
passage there may still be a lingering shower or isolated
thunderstorm east of the Genesee Valley. Otherwise western NY will
dry out by early morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region will
be dry from early afternoon on. Behind the front skies will
partially clear, although diurnal cumulus will develop along and
inland from the lake breezes during the afternoon yielding a mix of
sun and clouds. Stable lake shadows east of the lakes will bring
more full sunshine along the Lake Erie shore and near Watertown.

Less humid air will filter into the area from west to east through
the day. Temperatures will still top out in the lower 80s across
lower elevations away from the lakeshores, with upper 70s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
After a comfortable night when temperatures will have returned to
the 50s for the first time in nearly a week...we can look forward to
simply outstanding weather on Tuesday as high pressure nosing south
from Hudson Bay will cross the Lower Great Lakes. This will provide
our region with sun filled skies and very comfortable conditions as
max temps within a couple degrees of 80 will be accompanied by low
humidity. This will prove to be an excellent day for outdoor
activities.

Tuesday night will once again feature very comfortable sleeping
conditions...as a dry Canadian airmass and light winds will
encourage temperatures to once again drop off into the 50s.

On Wednesday...our region will find itself wedged between the
remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie along the Carolina coastline and
an approaching frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes. The
large scale subsidence between the two systems will combine with the
residual dry airmass to guarantee another day of full sunshine. It
will be warmer though...as temperatures are expected to climb back
into the low to mid 80s. The exception will be within 5-10 miles of
the south shore of Lake Ontario...where a northeast low level flow
will hold afternoon temperatures in the 70s. This northeast flow
will also keep dew points from climbing out of the 50s...so the
higher temperatures will be easier to tolerate.

A short lived push of warmer...more humid conditions will be
experienced over our region in advance of a cold front Wednesday
night and Thursday. The deepening southerly flow on the backside of
the exiting ridge but ahead of the front will push our dew points
back up towards 60...especially over the far western counties. This
will once again set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms as
the aforementioned cold front Thursday afternoon and night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is high confidence that the first weekend of June will be much
more comfortable than the about to end Memorial Day Weekend...as a
notable pattern change will take place across the continent.

The Western Atlantic Ridge responsible for record heat...and even
for helping to fuel scattered strong to severe convection over the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Regions...will give way to a
progressive low amplitude flow during the course of the week. As we
push through the first weekend of June...the near zonal flow along
the length of the Canadian border will then buckle as anomalously
strong ridging will blossom across the Inter-Mountain West. The
resulting downstream troughing over the Great Lakes Region will
allow cooler...more comfortable Canadian air to pour south. With H85
temps averaging in the single digits C...daytime highs will be in
the 70s F...right where they should be for this point in the warm
season.

In terms of precipitation...high pressure situated over the Great
Lakes should supply our region with mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect any lingering showers to continue to weaken and shift
eastward into Central NY, with VFR conditions prevailing. A weak
cold front will cross the area overnight and early Monday with a few
more showers, but with sparse coverage. There will likely be a brief
period of MVFR CIGS just behind the front for a few hours early
Monday morning across western NY. By mid to late morning VFR should
prevail with drier air moving into the region, leading to a
prolonged period of fine weather for the next few days.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the region tonight and clean out the heat
and humidity, with mainly dry conditions expected on Memorial Day.
Winds will increase somewhat on Memorial Day, up to about 15 knots
which will produce choppy wave action but still well below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300548
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue overnight with
the most widespread activity in northeast Pennsylvania where heavy
downpours are possible. Drier and more comfortable weather
returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM update...Local radar trends show widespread convection
across the northern/western forecast area weakening and becoming
more scattered as diurnal instability wanes. Will continue with
likely pops here for another hour then scattered for the remainder
of the overnight period. To our south moisture from Bonnie is
moving into the far southeast forecast area at this time. Latest
model guidance suggest this activity will remain over northeast
Pennsylvania and into the southern Catskills. Total rainfall in
the southeast counties overnight could approach one inch. Its a
close call for the southern tier but for now the bulk of this
rainfall will remain just to the east. Current forecast handles
this well with just minor adjustments made.

145 PM EDT Update...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as expected across
central NY this afternoon. A few isolated cells have popped up over
nepa, but for the most part the majority of the activity this
morning/early afternoon has been confined to central ny. The atmos
is very moist with pwat values ranging from 1.5 to 1.6 across the
area and lots of instability is present with sbCAPE values currently
ranging from 2500-3000 j/kg. Similar to yesterday, the steering flow
is very weak. The 850-500MB flow is roughly 20 knots over much of
central NY and northeast PA. The combination of large amounts of
instability,copious amounts of moisture and weak steering flow will
result in an environment conducive for slow moving thunderstorms
which will likely produce heavy downpours. Activity that does
develop today will move towards the NE around 15 to 20 mph.

So far, no storms have reached severe levels, and do not expect
these showers to produce severe winds or large hail as kinematics do
not look conducive to support severe weather.  Showers are expected
to continue to develop through much of the evening. There may be a
slight lull in precip tonight ahead of the next slug of rain that is
expected to move into nepa late tonight. These thunderstorms are
expected to be heavy as well as this next round of showers will tap
into tropical moisture from Bonnie. Shower associated with tropical
moisture are expected to move into NEPA as early as 04Z on Monday
and may last through 15Z Monday. Some of these showers may push into
central NY over the Western Catskills, but the bulk of the activity
is expected to remain over NEPA. Chance for showers area wide should
diminish by 00Z Tues.

Temps will continue to remain above normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm Update...
Weak high pressure at the surface will build across the region
behind the departing cold front Monday night. Conditions aloft
will remain fairly neutral during the day Tuesday as weak ridging
in the upper levels allows for large scale subsidence to induce
quiet weather conditions into Tuesday night.

Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s are expected Monday
night and Tuesday night. Afternoon highs will top out in the 70s
and lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 pm Update...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region
Wednesday through Thursday...with quiet weather and highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows remain steady into the
weekend as well...in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A fast-moving cold front will track from the eastern Great Lakes
into New England Thursday night through Friday night...producing
another round of showers and storms. A slightly cooler and drier
air mass will move in behind this front late Saturday and Sunday
with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main focus early this morning will be in the vicinity of KAVP
and the mountainous terrain to the east. Steady, light to moderate
rainfall will brush the KAVP terminal vicinity through 10Z.
Expecting mainly VFR ceilings here, with some MVFR visibility
restrictions possible in the rain. Ceiling should stay up at the
terminal, but ridgetop obscuration likely on east, or northeast
approach.

Elsewhere...VFR is expected at the other airports, although
suspect that KELM may bounce in and out of visibility restrictions
given rainfall in the past 24 hours and not much of a ceiling to
prohibit boundary layer cooling. Brief IFR possible here through
11Z.

The only other consideration today will be potential for
convective thunderstorm development this afternoon along and ahead
of cold frontal passage. High resolution mesoscale models suggest
a line of storms developing 18Z-24Z with highest potential affect
realized at KBGM and KAVP. Confidence is relatively low, but think
at least a chance mention in the forecast for these two areas is
valid.

Winds light/variable early, becoming SW 5-10 knots after sunrise,
then W-NW around 10 kts this afternoon post fropa.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog
is possible during the late night and early morning hours each
day.

Thurs & Fri...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...JAB




000
FXUS61 KBGM 300141
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
941 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue overnight with
the most widespread activity in northeast Pennsylvania where heavy
downpours are possible. Drier and more comfortable weather
returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM update...Local radar trends show widespread convection
across the northern/western forecast area weakening and becoming
more scattered as diurnal instability wanes. Will continue with
likely pops here for another hour then scattered for the remainder
of the overnight period. To our south moisture from Bonnie is
moving into the far southeast forecast area at this time. Latest
model guidance suggest this activity will remain over northeast
Pennsylvania and into the southern Catskills. Total rainfall in
the southeast counties overnight could approach one inch. Its a
close call for the southern tier but for now the bulk of this
rainfall will remain just to the east. Current forecast handles
this well with just minor adjustments made.

145 PM EDT Update...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop as expected across
central NY this afternoon. A few isolated cells have popped up over
nepa, but for the most part the majority of the activity this
morning/early afternoon has been confined to central ny. The atmos
is very moist with pwat values ranging from 1.5 to 1.6 across the
area and lots of instability is present with sbCAPE values currently
ranging from 2500-3000 j/kg. Similar to yesterday, the steering flow
is very weak. The 850-500MB flow is roughly 20 knots over much of
central NY and northeast PA. The combination of large amounts of
instability,copious amounts of moisture and weak steering flow will
result in an environment conducive for slow moving thunderstorms
which will likely produce heavy downpours. Activity that does
develop today will move towards the NE around 15 to 20 mph.

So far, no storms have reached severe levels, and do not expect
these showers to produce severe winds or large hail as kinematics do
not look conducive to support severe weather.  Showers are expected
to continue to develop through much of the evening. There may be a
slight lull in precip tonight ahead of the next slug of rain that is
expected to move into nepa late tonight. These thunderstorms are
expected to be heavy as well as this next round of showers will tap
into tropical moisture from Bonnie. Shower associated with tropical
moisture are expected to move into NEPA as early as 04Z on Monday
and may last through 15Z Monday. Some of these showers may push into
central NY over the Western Catskills, but the bulk of the activity
is expected to remain over NEPA. Chance for showers area wide should
diminish by 00Z Tues.

Temps will continue to remain above normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm Update...
Weak high pressure at the surface will build across the region
behind the departing cold front Monday night. Conditions aloft
will remain fairly neutral during the day Tuesday as weak ridging
in the upper levels allows for large scale subsidence to induce
quiet weather conditions into Tuesday night.

Overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s are expected Monday
night and Tuesday night. Afternoon highs will top out in the 70s
and lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 pm Update...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region
Wednesday through Thursday...with quiet weather and highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows remain steady into the
weekend as well...in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A fast-moving cold front will track from the eastern Great Lakes
into New England Thursday night through Friday night...producing
another round of showers and storms. A slightly cooler and drier
air mass will move in behind this front late Saturday and Sunday
with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the period as afternoon/evening convection has
started to dramatically wane and push out of the region. Another
weak wave and moisture from what was Bonnie will help provide the
possibility of showers overnight mainly around 30/04-30/09z across
the CNY region...with better chances across NE PA and Sullivan
County in NY after 30/05z. Lower ceilings/visibility and possible
MVFR conditions. Westerly modest winds after daybreak...with some
models showing some showers as front passes through late morning
and early afternoon. As everything starts to develop in the next
12 hours will be able to pinpoint these features better in the
overnight TAFs.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog
is possible during the late night and early morning hours each
day.

Thurs & Fri...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...ABS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 292351
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western Atlantic gradually translates
eastward tonight ahead of a frontal system working east from the
Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal trough will work into the area by
daybreak Monday and then dissipates across the area. A cold
frontal passage will then follow late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. High pressure then returns until a cold front slowly
approaches at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Fog bank along the south shore of LI expanded rapidly ahead of
main bank well offshore this afternoon. This area will remain
gradually overspread LI and the CT coast from south to north
during the evening hours. Received a few reports of drizzle
associated with the fog bank moving onshore...so have added this
to the grids this eve. Also made some adjustments to sky/t/td to
better reflect the stratus/fog extent next couple of hours as well
as the drop in temps and increase in dewpoints as a result.

Otherwise...high amplitude ridge over the western Atlantic
finally weakens and translates east tonight in response to an
upper trough lifting NE across the Great Lakes and into eastern
Canada. This allows the westerlies along the northern tier of the
country to expand eastward and allow for a more progressive flow.
As this happens, tropical moisture rounding the western periphery
of the ridge, as well as moisture associated with TD Bonnie over
south Carolina. will get drawn northward ahead of an approaching
cold front and pre-frontal trough. With the aforementioned upper
trough lifting out to the NE, the RRQ of the upper jet will press
east overnight along with a surface trough. Deep-layered moisture
with PW values increasing to around 2 inches will interact with
multiple lifting mechanisms for widespread showers to develop late
tonight. Marginal instability will also allow for isolated
thunderstorms. There is the potential for localized heavy rainfall
with many locations seeing upwards of an inch by daybreak,
especially from NYC points north and west.

There is some uncertainty with the magnitude and location of
convection along ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough
overnight. The GFS is most aggressive across the interior of the
Lower Hudson Valley with the ECMWF to a lesser extent. The NAM WRF
primarily focuses the strongest convection across the coastline.
The GFS of late has grossly exaggerated the diurnal convection.
How this translates forward with a synoptic scale system remains
uncertain, but due to the tropical connection with this system
have leaned toward the higher model QPF of the GFS.

Overnight lows will remain mild in the 60s with dew points not far
behind. This is above normal by about 10 degrees.

There remains a moderate risk of rip current development at
Atlantic facing beaches through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Deepest lift and moisture in the morning will be primarily from
NYC and points east. In fact, model time height cross sections
show drying in the low-levels but continued mid and upper level
lift with the upper jet dynamics and mid level frontogenesis.
Heaviest rain is forecast to end over all but eastern LI/SE by
early afternoon, where it could linger a few more hours.

Models have trended a bit slower the last couple of days with the
evolution of this system. This is something to bear watching.
Showers are forecast to linger through much of the afternoon.

Localized flash flooding is a possibility during the morning/early
afternoon hours with any embedded thunderstorm activity. Showers
very well could linger into the nighttime hours, especially across
LI/CT as some mid level energy associated with TD Bonnie shears
NE into the Mid Atlantic Region. This will be watched closely with
the potential for more significant rainfall.

As for highs Mon, stayed on the cooler side of the MOS guidance
with highs generally in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will remain
mild in the lower to mid 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with the H5 pattern across north
america through Wed...but then timing and amplitude differences with
the next trough/cutoff low traversing southeast Canada during the
second half of the week is impacting the progression of a cold front
across the area.

12z EC still holding on to residual pcpn Tue morning therefore have
maintained schc pops. Although tropical depression Bonnie will
still be over coastal north Carolina...the focus for pcpn will
have passed e with all pcpn remaining offshore. NHC`s 11am advsy
tracks Bonnie to around 100 miles SW of the 40N 70W benchmark at
12z Friday. Due to its close proximity there could be a few showers
Thu mainly across srn portions of the forecast area. As the front
moves closer Thu night and Fri...showers and tstm chances will
increase...although it now appears that additional moisture from
Bonnie or its remnants will remain separate from the approaching
frontal boundary. If the upper trough associated with this
boundary speeds up however...this could change.

This upper trough digs as it moves through the Midwest/Ohio valley
leading to a slow progression of the sfc front across the area.
While the forecast has pops from Thu Night through Sunday...think
most of the activity will be diurnal.

Temperatures will remain above normal levels Tue and Wed...with a
return to near normal temps thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions range from VFR for most of the terminals to IFR at KJFK
and LIFR at both KISP and KGON. Expecting the low stratus/fog to
reach other terminals later tonight along with showers moving in
from the SW.

Rain showers will increase after 03-04Z and become heavy at times
near daybreak into the morning hours. There could be some
improvement to MVFR for Monday PM for some western terminals with
otherwise IFR or below continuing. Rain showers...heavy at times
continue through much of Monday especially east of the city
terminals. Any thunderstorms will be isolated.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Tuesday through Friday...
.Monday Night...MVFR/IFR possible with a chance of showers.
.Tuesday...Becoming VFR.
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday night...VFR. E-NE winds g15-20kt
Wednesday.
.Thursday-Friday...Low chance of MVFR or lower in showers. E-NE winds
g15-20kt Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Higher dew point air moving across the coastal waters tonight will
result in areas of fog and drizzle that are forecast to expand
north from the ocean waters to LI Sound and the adjacent harbors
and bays.

A persistent southerly flow will continue on the waters around
the western periphery of the western Atlantic ridge. Seas will
gradually build through Tuesday with the possibility of marginal
SCA seas late Monday night into Tuesday. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty on how much residual swell from Tropical Cyclone
Bonnie will impact the coastal ocean waters early next week.

Wind gusts could approach sca levels on the ocean on Thu.
Otherwise sub-advsy conds are expected through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
For tonight through Monday Evening...a widespread 1 to 1.5 inches
of rain is forecast. Locally higher amounts are a good
possibility. This rain could lead to minor urban and small stream
flooding and there is chance for localized flash flooding as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ330-335-338-
     340.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ345-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 292351
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and bring a
return to somewhat cooler and less humid air for Memorial Day
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar and satellite trends show convection across the region is
slowly weakening with the loss of diurnal heating and starting to
shift eastward. Farther west, the surface cold front will enter
western NY after 06Z. A QLCS had developed earlier ahead of the
front across southwestern Ontario, however, waning instability has
allowed this feature to weaken. By the time the frontal forcing
reaches western NY, it may produce a few scattered showers or an
isolated thunderstorm, but weak convergence and limited instability
by this time of night should keep the activity weak with limited
areal coverage.

It will remain mild and humid most of the night until the front
arrives, with lower humidity reaching western NY around daybreak
with the cold frontal passage. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s
on the lake plains, with lower 60s across the cooler Southern Tier
valleys and Tug Hill region.

On Memorial Day Monday the cold front will move east across the area
during the morning, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region and
central NY by midday or early afternoon. Prior to the frontal
passage there may still be a lingering shower or isolated
thunderstorm east of the Genesee Valley. Otherwise western NY will
dry out by early morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region will
be dry from early afternoon on. Behind the front skies will
partially clear, although diurnal cumulus will develop along and
inland from the lake breezes during the afternoon yielding a mix of
sun and clouds. Stable lake shadows east of the lakes will bring
more full sunshine along the Lake Erie shore and near Watertown.

Less humid air will filter into the area from west to east through
the day. Temperatures will still top out in the lower 80s across
lower elevations away from the lakeshores, with upper 70s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Temporary re-establishment of upper level East Coast ridging and
expansion of Hudson Bay centered high pressure across the eastern
Great Lakes will promote fair weather through midweek. The latter
will bring a drier, more comfortable airmass to our region under
northwest flow with plenty of sunshine during the day and mainly
clear skies at night. Breezy northwest winds are possible Tuesday as
the 12z NAM shows good mixing of a 20-30 kt jet aloft. 850 mb
temperatures of about 12C will promote afternoon surface highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

Comfortable dewpoint temperatures falling back to the upper 40s and
low 50s along with clear skies will promote cooler overnight
temperatures dipping into the low to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday
nights along with some patchy fog in the Southern Tier. By Wednesday
night an increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west will help hold temperatures a bit milder with
increasing clouds and humidity. Lows should only dip into the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expanding ridging across the western US will force downstream
troughing across the eastern states heading into next weekend. This
digging trough will promote cooler temperatures working back toward
early June climatological levels along with a few chances of
precipitation.

The first chance will be associated with a weak cold front currently
forecast to shift across the forecast area mainly later Thursday
into Thursday night. Some weak instability forecast to build ahead
of the front calls for chances of showers and thunderstorms. Low end
to slight chance POPS then extend from Friday through Saturday
mainly due to the trough overhead. A shortwave trough digging into
the base of the trough on Sunday will support broadbrush chance
POPs.

Temperatures on Thursday will be the warmest ahead of the
front with upper 70s to mid 80s possible before the arrival of the
cool air limits highs to the low to mid 70s through the weekend.
Overnight lows will again dip into the 50s each night coolest inland
away from the lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any lingering thunderstorms this evening will continue to weaken and
shift eastward into Central NY, with VFR conditions prevailing. A
weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and early Monday
with a few more showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, but
with sparse coverage. There will likely be a brief period of MVFR
CIGS with IFR higher terrain just behind the front for a few hours
early Monday morning across western NY. By mid to late morning VFR
should prevail with drier air moving into the region.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the region tonight and clean out the heat
and humidity, with mainly dry conditions expected on Memorial Day.
Winds will increase somewhat on Memorial Day, up to about 15 knots
which will produce choppy wave action but still well below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 292040
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
440 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the western Atlantic gradually translates
eastward tonight ahead of a frontal system working east from the
Ohio Valley. A pre-frontal trough will work into the area by
daybreak Monday and then dissipates across the area. A cold
frontal passage will then follow late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. High pressure then returns until a cold front slowly
approaches at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Fog bank along the south shore of LI expanded rapidly ahead of
main bank well offshore this afternoon. This area will remain
gradually overspread LI and the CT coast from south to north
during the evening hours. Drizzle is a possibility as well.

High amplitude ridge over the western Atlantic finally weakens
and translates east tonight in response to an upper trough lifting
NE across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. This allows the
westerlies along the northern tier of the country to expand
eastward and allow for a more progressive flow. As this happens,
tropical moisture rounding the western periphery of the ridge, as
well as moisture associated with TD Bonnie over south Carolina.
will get drawn northward ahead of an approaching cold front and
pre-frontal trough. With the aforementioned upper trough lifting
out to the NE, the RRQ of the upper jet will press east overnight
along with a surface trough. Deep-layered moisture with PW values
increasing to around 2 inches will interact with multiple lifting
mechanisms for widespread showers to develop late tonight.
Marginal instability will also allow for isolated thunderstorms.
There is the potential for localized heavy rainfall with many
locations seeing upwards of an inch by daybreak, especially from
NYC points north and west.

There is some uncertainty with the magnitude and location of
convection along ahead of the approaching pre-frontal trough
overnight. The GFS is most aggressive across the interior of the
Lower Hudson Valley with the ECMWF to a lesser extent. The NAM WRF
primarily focuses the strongest convection across the coastline.
The GFS of late has grossly exaggerated the diurnal convection.
How this translates forward with a synoptic scale system remains
uncertain, but due to the tropical connection with this system
have leaned toward the higher model QPF of the GFS.

Overnight lows will remain mild in the 60s with dew points not far
behind. This is above normal by about 10 degrees.

There remains a moderate risk of rip current development at
Atlantic facing beaches through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Deepest lift and moisture in the morning will be primarily from
NYC and points east. In fact, model time height cross sections
show drying in the low-levels but continued mid and upper level
lift with the upper jet dynamics and mid level frontogenesis.
Heaviest rain is forecast to end over all but eastern LI/SE by
early afternoon, where it could linger a few more hours.

Models have trended a bit slower the last couple of days with the
evolution of this system. This is something to bear watching.
Showers are forecast to linger through much of the afternoon.

Localized flash flooding is a possibility during the morning/early
afternoon hours with any embedded thunderstorm activity. Showers
very well could linger into the nighttime hours, especially across
LI/CT as some mid level energy associated with TD Bonnie shears
NE into the Mid Atlantic Region. This will be watched closely with
the potential for more significant rainfall.

As for highs Mon, stayed on the cooler side of the MOS guidance
with highs generally in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will remain
mild in the lower to mid 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with the H5 pattern across north
america through Wed...but then timing and amplitude differences with
the next trough/cutoff low traversing southeast Canada during the
second half of the week is impacting the progression of a cold front
across the area.

12z EC still holding on to residual pcpn Tue morning therefore have
maintained schc pops. Although tropical depression Bonnie will
still be over coastal north Carolina...the focus for pcpn will
have passed e with all pcpn remaining offshore. NHC`s 11am advsy
tracks Bonnie to around 100 miles SW of the 40N 70W benchmark at
12z Friday. Due to its close proximity there could be a few showers
Thu mainly across srn portions of the forecast area. As the front
moves closer Thu night and Fri...showers and tstm chances will
increase...although it now appears that additional moisture from
Bonnie or its remnants will remain separate from the approaching
frontal boundary. If the upper trough associated with this
boundary speeds up however...this could change.

This upper trough digs as it moves through the Midwest/Ohio valley
leading to a slow progression of the sfc front across the area.
While the forecast has pops from Thu Night through Sunday...think
most of the activity will be diurnal.

Temperatures will remain above normal levels Tue and Wed...with a
return to near normal temps thereafter.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR for most terminals with a few already getting affected by
lowering clouds to IFR to below into this evening. This will spread
west to other coastal and city terminals this evening. Rain showers
will increase and become more intense into the overnight. There
could be some improvement to MVFR for Monday PM for terminals away
from the coast with otherwise IFR or below continuing. Rain
showers...heavy at times continue through much of Monday. Any
thunderstorms will be isolated.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Monday through Friday...
.Monday Afternoon...MVFR away from the coast with IFR near the
coast. Isolated showers/thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall.
.Monday Night...MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
.Tuesday...Becoming VFR.
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday night...VFR. E-NE winds g15-20kt
Wednesday.
.Thursday-Friday...Low chance of MVFR or lower in showers. E-NE winds
g15-20kt Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Higher dew point air moving across the coastal waters tonight will
result in areas of fog that are forecast to expand north from the
ocean waters to LI Sound and the adjacent harbors and bays.

A persistent southerly flow will continue on the waters around
the western periphery of the western Atlantic ridge. Seas will
gradually build through Tuesday with the possibility of marginal
SCA seas late Monday night into Tuesday. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty on how much residual swell from Tropical Cyclone
Bonnie will impact the coastal ocean waters early next week.

Wind gusts could approach sca levels on the ocean on Thu.
Otherwise sub-advsy conds are expected through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
For tonight through Monday Evening...a widespread 1 to 1.5 inches
of rain is forecast. Locally higher amounts are a good
possibility. This rain could lead to minor urban and small stream
flooding and there is chance for localized flash flooding as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ330-335-338-340.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ345-350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/DW




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291800
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid summer conditions will remain in place this afternoon as high
pressure anchored off the East Coast will continue to pump very warm
and humid air northward into our region. This environment will
support the potential for scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly along and east of
the Genesee Valley as a weak trough crosses the region. A weak cold
front will then cross the area late tonight and bring a return to
somewhat cooler and less humid air for Memorial Day through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery early this afternoon showing scattered to numerous
thunderstorms filling in from the upper Genesee Valley east across
the Finger Lakes to central NY along an axis of stronger
instability, with SPC objective mesoanalysis showing 2000-2500 J/kg
of SBCAPE. Through late afternoon, expect the majority of convection
to focus from the Genesee Valley east across central NY in this axis
of greater instability. Farther west across western NY, the
combination of a stable lake shadow off Lake Erie and thicker mid
level cloud cover will limit destabilization and likely prevent any
organized deep moist convection.

The environment will again not be favorable for organized severe
storms, with a lack of deep layer and low level shear, and a
tall/skinny CAPE profile suggesting only moderate strength updrafts.
That said, there is always a marginal potential for a storm or two
to approach severe criteria in a moderate to strongly unstable
airmass. The environment will be favorable for some heavy rain
producers however, with short Corfidi storm propagation vectors and
PWAT approaching 1.75 inches. Given the character of some of the
stronger storms on Saturday with instantaneous rain rates of 6
in/hr, heavy rain seems of good bet today as well, most likely from
the interior Southern Tier through the Genesee Valley to central NY
from mid afternoon through evening.

The increase in showers/storms and cloud cover will keep
temperatures down just a little from yesterday, with highs in in the
mid to upper 80s across lower elevations and lower 80s across the
Southern Tier. Southwest flow will again keep the Lake Erie shore
and eastern shore of Lake Ontario cooler.

Through this evening latest high resolution model guidance and
recent radar trends suggest the most concentrated area of showers
and storms will move east across the Finger Lakes into central NY
and possibly the Tug Hill region. There is also some suggestion that
composite outflow from these storms will travel westward and aid in
developing a few scattered storms across western NY, mainly just
east of a Buffalo to Jamestown line as the westward propagating
outflow intersects the Lake Erie breeze. If this does occur, expect
this activity to remain widely scattered at best.

Overnight the stronger area of convection will head towards eastern
NY and the Adirondacks and weaken with the loss of diurnal
instability. Farther west, the surface cold front will enter western
NY after 06Z. The front may produce a few scattered showers or an
isolated thunderstorm, but weak convergence and limited instability
by this time of night should keep the activity weak with limited
areal coverage.

It will remain mild and humid most of the night until the front
arrives, with lower humidity reaching western NY around daybreak
with the cold frontal passage. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s
on the lake plains, with lower 60s across the cooler Southern Tier
valleys and Tug Hill region.

On Memorial Day Monday the cold front will move east across the area
during the morning, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region and
central NY by midday or early afternoon. Prior to the frontal
passage there may still be a lingering shower or isolated
thunderstorm east of the Genesee Valley. Otherwise western NY will
dry out by early morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region will
be dry from early afternoon on. Behind the front skies will
partially clear, although diurnal cumulus will develop along and
inland from the lake breezes during the afternoon yielding a mix of
sun and clouds. Stable lake shadows east of the lakes will bring
more full sunshine along the Lake Erie shore and near Watertown.

Less humid air will filter into the area from west to east through
the day. Temperatures will still top out in the lower 80s across
lower elevations away from the lakeshores, with upper 70s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Benign...problem free weather can be expected throughout this
period. It will become noticeably more comfortable as well. While
temperatures will average a few degrees above normal...much lower
dewpoints will replace the sultry conditions experienced since the
start of the long holiday weekend.

As we open this period...a slow moving cool frontal boundary will be
exiting across the Eastern Lake Ontario and Finger Lakes regions.
While there could be a few leftover morning showers associated with
the boundary for sites east of ROC...drier mid level air in the wake
of the front will offer improving conditions as the day matures. The
drying will translate into gradually lowering humidity levels...but
with little true cold air advection behind the front...the afternoon
will still be warm with max temps in the lower 80s across the lake
plains and in the valleys. These forecast temps have been raised a
few degrees from continuity...and are being supported by H85 temps
that will be in the vcnty of 13c.

High pressure centered over the Mid West will approach our region
Monday night. Weak cool advection will help to make it the most
comfortable night in nearly a week...as temperatures are forecast to
finally fall back into the 50s away from the immediate lake shores.
The one potential fly in the ointment though will be the passage of
a secondary frontal boundary. This feature should be moisture
starved though...so will keep a dry forecast in place.

It will then be absolutely gorgeous on Tuesday...as the axis of a
large sfc high will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes. We
can anticipate sun filled skies and comfortable conditions as high
temps will range from 75 to 80 while dew points will generally be in
the lower 50s. This should prove to be an excellent day for outdoor
activities.

Tuesday night will once again feature very comfortable sleeping
conditions...as a dry Canadian airmass and light winds will
encourage temperatures to once again drop off into the 50s.

On Wednesday...our region will find itself wedged between the
remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie along the Mid Atlantic Coast and
an approaching frontal boundary over the Upper Great Lakes. The
large scale subsidence between the two systems will combine with the
residual dry airmass to guarantee another day of full sunshine. It
will be warmer though...as temperatures are expected to climb back
into the low to mid 80s. The exception will be within 5-10 miles of
the south shore of Lake Ontario...where a northeast low level flow
will hold afternoon temperatures in the 70s. This northeast flow
will also keep dew points from climbing out of the 50s...so the
higher temperatures will be easier to tolerate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
There will be a clear trend towards cooler weather during this
period...as a burgeoning ridge over the western half of the country
will promote downstream troughing over the Great Lakes region. This
high confidence pattern change is supported by the majority of the
GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members...which have been in general
agreement for several model runs. As for the day to day details...

A slow moving...and potentially `wavy`...cold front will cross the
Lower Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday. This will generate some
unsettled conditions across our forecast area in the form of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. While temperatures will climb
into the low to mid 80s ahead of the front on Thursday...the mercury
will only top out in the 70s on Friday.

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will then settle to the
southeast across our forecast area Friday night and Saturday. This
should support fair weather as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Expect numerous thunderstorms to move slowly east across the Finger
Lakes and central NY this afternoon and early evening, eventually
filling in east of Lake Ontario mainly southeast of KART. These
storms will produce local MVFR/IFR conditions, but should largely
miss the TAF sites. By late afternoon or early evening a few
thunderstorms may also develop as far west as KROC and KJHW, but
KBUF and KIAG will likely avoid most of the storms with a southwest
flow of stable air off Lake Erie. Outside of convection VFR will
prevail.

Tonight the more numerous thunderstorms will continue east towards
eastern NY. A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and
early Monday with a few more showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm, but with sparse coverage. There will likely be a brief
period of MVFR CIGS with IFR higher terrain just behind the front
for a few hours early Monday morning across western NY. By mid to
late morning VFR should prevail with drier air moving into the
region.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and flat wave action will continue today with winds
generally 12 knots or less and waves less than 2 feet. Scattered
thunderstorms will stay mainly over the land with little impact to
the lakes, as the cool lake waters yield more stable air over the
lakes.

A cold front will then cross the region tonight and clean out the
heat and humidity, with mainly dry conditions expected on Memorial
Day. Winds will increase somewhat on Memorial Day, up to about 15
knots which will produce choppy wave action but still well below
small craft advisory criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1102 AM EDT Sunday...Temperatures and the associated heat
has been quite the challenge this morning. The marine stratus
layer has been able to push into the eastern edge of Vermont and
is keeping temps in the upper 60s to low 70s for Vermont east of
the Greens. However in the Champlain valley we are continuing to
heat up rapidly with the BTV observation at 86F at 11am. The
expected heat wave will depend on how much cloud cover we because
there is a bit of a ceiling currently moving across northern New
York base on latest Vis/IR satellite. Showers are continuing
across the northern Saint Lawrence Valley and into Ontario/Quebec
with the most significant storm north of the international border.
I did continue to blend in hires guidance into the temp forecast
to show the cooler temps under the cloud cover along with the
warmer air into the Champlain Valley. The forecast sensible
weather looked good to go with no changes needed. Previous
discussion follows:

Interesting weather set up today with an upper level ridge still
hanging tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof
approaches from the west. Also have a backdoor front which will be
edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds
and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree day in a row here in
the Champlain valley with warm air still in place and lots of
sunshine this morning. With approaching shortwave trof and some
surface based instability will have some showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon...mainly across northern New York. PWATS
surge to about 1.8" this afternoon...therefore feel that we could
have heavy rain with any thunderstorms and have indicated this in
the forecast. Do feel that models are overdoing the cape once
again. Heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms continues into the
first half of the overnight hours then storms will die off as they
move eastward into more stable air and with loss of daytime
heating. Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud
cover remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across
the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so
better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our
eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional
rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across
the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St
Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls
through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some
variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle
across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm
during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid
70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the
50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in
control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected
with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the
50s to locally near 60.

By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a
progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from
the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some
uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest
threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an
evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across
the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate
higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with
the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18z Monday...showers and thunderstorms are moving through
the Adirondacks up to the Canadian border. These cells should
have impact on slk/pbg/btv over the next few hours with
thunderstorms temporarily on station from 18z-21z. Scattered
showers could impact all stations except mss through 00z and then
again overnight from 06-12z. Impacts would be temporary mvfr
conditions with passing showers. Overall conditions should remain
vfr with mpv the one exception seeing mvfr ceilings overnight
until the early morning hours. Winds will be southerly for most of
the period 05-15 knots.

Outlook 18z Monday through
Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat
appears to occur in the Monday early evening time frame. Best
chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:

                          5/29
BTV - Burlington        89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles/MV
CLIMATE...BTV




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