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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271507
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1007 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE MVG NE TOWARD THE AREA IS CAUSING GREATER AREAL
COVERAGE OF SNOW / RAIN SHOWERS.

UNTIL 17Z OR NOON...INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PCPN TO NEARLY 50% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NJ. ALSO INCREASED
CHC OF PCPN ACROSS ENTIRE LOCAL AREA...WITH PCPN TYPE FALLING MAINLY
AS SNOW AT TEMPS LOWER THAN 38 DEGS AND MAINLY AS RAIN ABV 38 DEGS.

TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE
WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED 2 METER TEMPS TODAY.

THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER
30S FRIDAY PER MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD
MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TODAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT.

MOSTLY MVFR...BUT ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR COULD PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR COULD ALSO PREVAIL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST.

LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND THRU AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON. PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONSTANT.

WINDS PRIMARILY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC. HOVER...AT KEWR...IT PROBABLY FAVORS SOUTH OF 310
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. ALTHO WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
IS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER
TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...GC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW








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000
FXUS61 KALY 271459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE
TO LIKELY. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER UPDATES TO SEE IF WE NEED HIGHER
POPS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY










000
FXUS61 KALY 271459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS SHOW THAT NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND HAVE RAISED POPS THERE
TO LIKELY. WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER UPDATES TO SEE IF WE NEED HIGHER
POPS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH
HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY










  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 271447
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST THANKSGIVING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DID NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S...TODAY WILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE MERCURY REACHING CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. IT WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY MILDER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHEN THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE UNDER THE
COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR SO THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INTENSIFY
THESE SNOW SHOWERS SOME.

A SHORTWAVE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A RISING
CAP PROMOTING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
AS THE CAP LIFTS TO ARND 15K FT TONIGHT...A NORTHWEST FLOW FEATURING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR. THE LAKE SNOW OFF ERIE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...AND SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF TONIGHT WHEN THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
WILL THUS GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCH ACCUMS
FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING (MAINLY SW) AND SRN ERIE
COUNTIES.

WHILE SIMILAR INSTABILITY AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE
SIMILAR OVER LK ONTARIO...THERE IS A STRONG SUGGESTION FROM THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TO
GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WILL PRIME THE BAND SO THAT SOMEWHAT MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW MAKING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AS WELL...WITH ACCUMS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED FROM NRN/ERN WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ALONG THE LK ERIE
SHORE TO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FOR SITES
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
INCREASE.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MORE SCATTERED AND
LESS ORGANIZED IN NATURE THANKS TO A SHORTER FETCH AND A LOWER CAP
OF AROUND 4 KFT...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO. MEANWHILE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGER FETCH...A MUCH HIGHER CAP
OF 8-10 KFT...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED/
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE THESE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND -13C/-14C...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD HELP TO SQUELCH ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE LIFT TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...A MUCH MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER BROAD/WEAK AND ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
QPF...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME MARKEDLY DOWNWARD TO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE CHANCE RANGE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS TO PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY RISING TEMPS THEN FOLLOWING FROM THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
WE SHOULD SEE LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH
READINGS THEN WARMING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARMING ALOFT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND WITH OUR
REGION SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC. UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +4C EAST AND
AROUND +9C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER
WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL
WITH JUST A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

THIS PERIOD WILL THEN END WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING TO AN
END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WHICH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW LATE AS TEMPS COOL OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE
DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN ITS WAKE...A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND ATTENDANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING.

BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE NEARING OUR
REGION WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS NUISANCE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FIELD OPERATIONS THOUGH...WITH NO
LOCALLY DERIVED WEATHER DELAYS ANTICIPATED.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN THESE AREAS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A NOR`EASTER WILL EXITING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE TO WEAKEN ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
SO THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION TO FRESHEN THE WINDS
ON BOTH LAKES...WITH WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA.

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
WAVES LIKELY REACHING 5 FEET ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AGAIN...A SCA
FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ISSUED IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271447
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST THANKSGIVING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DID NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S...TODAY WILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE MERCURY REACHING CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. IT WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY MILDER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHEN THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE UNDER THE
COLD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
OR SO THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD INTENSIFY
THESE SNOW SHOWERS SOME.

A SHORTWAVE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A RISING
CAP PROMOTING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
AS THE CAP LIFTS TO ARND 15K FT TONIGHT...A NORTHWEST FLOW FEATURING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR. THE LAKE SNOW OFF ERIE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...AND SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF TONIGHT WHEN THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
WILL THUS GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCH ACCUMS
FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING (MAINLY SW) AND SRN ERIE
COUNTIES.

WHILE SIMILAR INSTABILITY AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE
SIMILAR OVER LK ONTARIO...THERE IS A STRONG SUGGESTION FROM THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TO
GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WILL PRIME THE BAND SO THAT SOMEWHAT MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW MAKING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AS WELL...WITH ACCUMS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED FROM NRN/ERN WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ALONG THE LK ERIE
SHORE TO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FOR SITES
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
INCREASE.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MORE SCATTERED AND
LESS ORGANIZED IN NATURE THANKS TO A SHORTER FETCH AND A LOWER CAP
OF AROUND 4 KFT...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO. MEANWHILE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGER FETCH...A MUCH HIGHER CAP
OF 8-10 KFT...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED/
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE THESE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND -13C/-14C...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD HELP TO SQUELCH ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE LIFT TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...A MUCH MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER BROAD/WEAK AND ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
QPF...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME MARKEDLY DOWNWARD TO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE CHANCE RANGE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS TO PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY RISING TEMPS THEN FOLLOWING FROM THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
WE SHOULD SEE LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH
READINGS THEN WARMING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARMING ALOFT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND WITH OUR
REGION SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC. UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +4C EAST AND
AROUND +9C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER
WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL
WITH JUST A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

THIS PERIOD WILL THEN END WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING TO AN
END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WHICH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW LATE AS TEMPS COOL OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE
DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN ITS WAKE...A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND ATTENDANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING.

BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE NEARING OUR
REGION WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS NUISANCE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FIELD OPERATIONS THOUGH...WITH NO
LOCALLY DERIVED WEATHER DELAYS ANTICIPATED.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN THESE AREAS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A NOR`EASTER WILL EXITING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE TO WEAKEN ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
SO THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION TO FRESHEN THE WINDS
ON BOTH LAKES...WITH WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA.

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
WAVES LIKELY REACHING 5 FEET ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AGAIN...A SCA
FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ISSUED IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 919 AM EST THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED
ON CRNT CONDITIONS AND LATEST RADAR. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES...CPV AND HIGHER TRRN OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT MTNS. THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER BL TO 850MB RH...WEAK LLVL CAA...AND
UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN THRU 18Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION...AS DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -10C
AND -12C MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...HAVE NOTED A FEW FLURRIES DEVELOPING PER LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. THEREFORE HAVE MENTION CHC POPS ACRS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CPV THRU 16Z TODAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE SWITCHED
THE CXX RADAR INTO VCP 31 TO DETECT THE LIGHT PRECIP BETTER. REST
OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY THIS AFTN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 271429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930AM EST UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTED THE POPS THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT STEADY SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOW WELL OUT
OF OUR REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LIKE WITH TIME AND NOT SO CONTINUOUS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
6 AM UPDATE...
SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING ENHANCE THE SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE POPS...ESP OVER
THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY LGT...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING UNRESTRICTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF SYR. EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO ELM AND AVP AFTER 17Z, ITH AND BGM AFTER 22Z
AND RME AFTER 01Z AS FLOW GOES SW AND SCOURS OUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WNW AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-
KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF










000
FXUS61 KBGM 271429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930AM EST UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTED THE POPS THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT STEADY SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOW WELL OUT
OF OUR REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LIKE WITH TIME AND NOT SO CONTINUOUS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
6 AM UPDATE...
SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING ENHANCE THE SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE POPS...ESP OVER
THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY LGT...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING UNRESTRICTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF SYR. EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO ELM AND AVP AFTER 17Z, ITH AND BGM AFTER 22Z
AND RME AFTER 01Z AS FLOW GOES SW AND SCOURS OUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WNW AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-
KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF










000
FXUS61 KBGM 271429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930AM EST UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTED THE POPS THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT STEADY SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOW WELL OUT
OF OUR REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LIKE WITH TIME AND NOT SO CONTINUOUS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
6 AM UPDATE...
SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING ENHANCE THE SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE POPS...ESP OVER
THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY LGT...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING UNRESTRICTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF SYR. EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO ELM AND AVP AFTER 17Z, ITH AND BGM AFTER 22Z
AND RME AFTER 01Z AS FLOW GOES SW AND SCOURS OUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WNW AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-
KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF










000
FXUS61 KBGM 271429
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
929 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930AM EST UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTED THE POPS THIS
MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT STEADY SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS THE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOW WELL OUT
OF OUR REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED LIKE WITH TIME AND NOT SO CONTINUOUS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
6 AM UPDATE...
SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING ENHANCE THE SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE POPS...ESP OVER
THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY LGT...NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING UNRESTRICTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF SYR. EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO ELM AND AVP AFTER 17Z, ITH AND BGM AFTER 22Z
AND RME AFTER 01Z AS FLOW GOES SW AND SCOURS OUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WNW AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-
KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF










000
FXUS61 KBUF 271200
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST THANKSGIVING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DID NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S...TODAY WILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE MERCURY REACHING CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. IT WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY MILDER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHEN THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COLD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS A
PHASED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINANT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BECOME LARGELY DRIVEN BY LAKE EFFECT
PROCESS AS WE PUSH THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME DETAILS...

THE NOR`EASTER THAT BROUGHT A FOOT OF SNOW TO SOME INLAND AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AWAY ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE LEAVING A
GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER OUR REGION. GIVEN THAT LAKE
SFC TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...THIS CYCLONIC FLOW OF
-10C H85 WILL COMBINE WITH A LITTLE UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE SOME
FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BE UNDER AN INCH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT.

A SHORTWAVE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A RISING
CAP PROMOTING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
AS THE CAP LIFTS TO ARND 15K FT TONIGHT...A NORTHWEST FLOW FEATURING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR. THE LAKE SNOW OFF ERIE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...AND SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF TONIGHT WHEN THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
WILL THUS GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCH ACCUMS
FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING (MAINLY SW) AND SRN ERIE
COUNTIES.

WHILE SIMILAR INSTABILITY AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE
SIMILAR OVER LK ONTARIO...THERE IS A STRONG SUGGESTION FROM THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TO
GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WILL PRIME THE BAND SO THAT SOMEWHAT MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW MAKING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AS WELL...WITH ACCUMS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED FROM NRN/ERN WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ALONG THE LK ERIE
SHORE TO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FOR SITES
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
INCREASE.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MORE SCATTERED AND
LESS ORGANIZED IN NATURE THANKS TO A SHORTER FETCH AND A LOWER CAP
OF AROUND 4 KFT...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO. MEANWHILE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGER FETCH...A MUCH HIGHER CAP
OF 8-10 KFT...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED/
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE THESE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND -13C/-14C...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD HELP TO SQUELCH ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE LIFT TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...A MUCH MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER BROAD/WEAK AND ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
QPF...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME MARKEDLY DOWNWARD TO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE CHANCE RANGE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS TO PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY RISING TEMPS THEN FOLLOWING FROM THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
WE SHOULD SEE LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH
READINGS THEN WARMING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARMING ALOFT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND WITH OUR
REGION SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC. UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +4C EAST AND
AROUND +9C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER
WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL
WITH JUST A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

THIS PERIOD WILL THEN END WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING TO AN
END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WHICH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW LATE AS TEMPS COOL OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE
DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN ITS WAKE...A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND ATTENDANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SOME
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING.

BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE NEARING OUR
REGION WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW REDUCING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS NUISANCE
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FIELD OPERATIONS THOUGH...WITH NO
LOCALLY DERIVED WEATHER DELAYS ANTICIPATED.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. IN THESE AREAS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A NOR`EASTER WILL EXITING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE TO WEAKEN ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
SO THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION TO FRESHEN THE WINDS
ON BOTH LAKES...WITH WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA.
WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO RE-EXAMINE THIS POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
FLAGS.

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
WAVES LIKELY REACHING 5 FEET ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AGAIN...A SCA
FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ISSUED IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY...HAVE DROPPED REMAINDER OF
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR VERMONT WITH LATEST
UPDATE. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER PAST FEW HOURS...AND LATEST DATA INDICATES JUST SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF VERMONT. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
THIS MORNING. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP
REST OF HEADLINES WITH NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN TROUGH
PREDOMINATES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

THIS UPPER TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH SFC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
LOW...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY. LATEST RADAR ALSO INDICATES SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO
AGREE WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED 2 METER TEMPS TODAY.

THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER
30S FRIDAY PER MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD
MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR...OCCASIONALLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE FIRST ROUND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

THE WIND WILL VARY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING AWAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WAS
QUICKLY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...INTO PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z. THEREAFTER...THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.

OTHERWISE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...AND SUBSIDING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 271144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN TROUGH
PREDOMINATES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

THIS UPPER TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH SFC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
LOW...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY. LATEST RADAR ALSO INDICATES SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO
AGREE WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED 2 METER TEMPS TODAY.

THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER
30S FRIDAY PER MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD
MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR...OCCASIONALLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE FIRST ROUND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

THE WIND WILL VARY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING AWAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WAS
QUICKLY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...INTO PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z. THEREAFTER...THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.

OTHERWISE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...AND SUBSIDING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF WITH JUST SOME VCSH
LOCALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH
WON`T AFFECT VSBY MUCH. SO FOR THE REST OF TODAY...LOOKING AT A
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY BREAKING UP A BIT AT TIMES BUT
LARGELY REMAINING OVC. AFTER 00Z...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION
IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSLK WHERE THINK A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBY IS LIKELY FROM 03-09Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KALY 271135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










000
FXUS61 KBGM 271124
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
624 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING ENHANCE THE
SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE
POPS...ESP OVER THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY
LGT...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING UNRESTRICTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF SYR. EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO ELM AND AVP AFTER 17Z, ITH AND BGM AFTER 22Z
AND RME AFTER 01Z AS FLOW GOES SW AND SCOURS OUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WNW AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-
KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 271124
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
624 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING ENHANCE THE
SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE
POPS...ESP OVER THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY
LGT...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING UNRESTRICTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF SYR. EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO ELM AND AVP AFTER 17Z, ITH AND BGM AFTER 22Z
AND RME AFTER 01Z AS FLOW GOES SW AND SCOURS OUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WNW AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-
KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 271116
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
616 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

6 AM UPDATE...SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING EHANCE THE
SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE
POPS...ESP OVER THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY
LGT...NO SGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 271116
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
616 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAYS SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

6 AM UPDATE...SHRT WV APRNT ON THE WV IMAGERY HELPING EHANCE THE
SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA THIS MRNG. HAVE INCRSD THE
POPS...ESP OVER THE NY ZONES FOR THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH PCPN VERY
LGT...NO SGNIFICANT ACCUM XPCTD. PRVS DISC BELOW.

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE
DROPPED WARNINGS/ADVISORIES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AS WELL AS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN VERMONT. THE
THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS IS
JUST ABOUT OVER. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SNOW WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO NO
MORE THAN 2 INCHES...AND EXPECT TO DROP REST OF HEADLINES WITH
NEXT UPDATE. SNOW TOTALS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT
AND SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
6 TO 14 INCHES. SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK...WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING DOWN TO ONLY A COUPLE
OF INCHES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND HARDLY ANYTHING IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS AS IF
THE REST OF THIS THANKSGIVING DAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY SKIES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE MECHANISM TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EST THURSDAY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. CLOUDS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.

TROUGH DEPARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP.
THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY. ANY
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO TEENS...WITH
SOME LOWER READINGS POSSIBLE GIVEN SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 270925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NOR`EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR`EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
ALBANY INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR THE MONTH. WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED...WE WILL WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO
SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...BGM/IAA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KOKX 270901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN TROUGH
PREDOMINATES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

THIS UPPER TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH SFC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS LOW...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY.

TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY REMAINING QUITE CHILLY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A
MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED
2 METER TEMPS TODAY.

THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER
30S FRIDAY PER MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD
MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS INTO TONIGHT ARE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE WIND WILL BACK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE IN AROUND 310
TRUE...AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 08Z THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING AWAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WAS
QUICKLY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...INTO PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. THEREAFTER...THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS
THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.

OTHERWISE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...AND SUBSIDING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY ON THE
SOUND...AND LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONVERTED TO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN SEAS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270901
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN TROUGH
PREDOMINATES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

THIS UPPER TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH SFC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS LOW...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY.

TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY REMAINING QUITE CHILLY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A
MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED
2 METER TEMPS TODAY.

THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER
30S FRIDAY PER MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD
MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVELS DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VFR...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS INTO TONIGHT ARE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE WIND WILL BACK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE IN AROUND 310
TRUE...AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 08Z THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING AWAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WAS
QUICKLY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...INTO PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. THEREAFTER...THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS
THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.

OTHERWISE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...AND SUBSIDING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY ON THE
SOUND...AND LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS CONVERTED TO
A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN SEAS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 270846
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST THANKSGIVING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DID NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S...TODAY WILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE MERCURY REACHING CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. IT WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY MILDER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHEN THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COLD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS A
PHASED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINANT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BECOME LARGELY DRIVEN BY LAKE EFFECT
PROCESS AS WE PUSH THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME DETAILS...

THE NOR`EASTER THAT BROUGHT A FOOT OF SNOW TO SOME INLAND AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AWAY ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE LEAVING A
GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER OUR REGION. GIVEN THAT LAKE
SFC TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...THIS CYCLONIC FLOW OF
-10C H85 WILL COMBINE WITH A LITTLE UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE SOME
FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BE UNDER AN INCH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT.

A SHORTWAVE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A RISING
CAP PROMOTING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
AS THE CAP LIFTS TO ARND 15K FT TONIGHT...A NORTHWEST FLOW FEATURING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR. THE LAKE SNOW OFF ERIE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...AND SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF TONIGHT WHEN THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
WILL THUS GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCH ACCUMS
FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING (MAINLY SW) AND SRN ERIE
COUNTIES.

WHILE SIMILAR INSTABILITY AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE
SIMILAR OVER LK ONTARIO...THERE IS A STRONG SUGGESTION FROM THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TO
GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WILL PRIME THE BAND SO THAT SOMEWHAT MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW MAKING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AS WELL...WITH ACCUMS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED FROM NRN/ERN WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ALONG THE LK ERIE
SHORE TO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FOR SITES
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
INCREASE.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MORE SCATTERED AND
LESS ORGANIZED IN NATURE THANKS TO A SHORTER FETCH AND A LOWER CAP
OF AROUND 4 KFT...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO. MEANWHILE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGER FETCH...A MUCH HIGHER CAP
OF 8-10 KFT...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED/
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE THESE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND -13C/-14C...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD HELP TO SQUELCH ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE LIFT TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...A MUCH MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER BROAD/WEAK AND ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
QPF...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME MARKEDLY DOWNWARD TO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE CHANCE RANGE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS TO PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY RISING TEMPS THEN FOLLOWING FROM THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
WE SHOULD SEE LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH
READINGS THEN WARMING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARMING ALOFT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND WITH OUR
REGION SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC. UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +4C EAST AND
AROUND +9C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER
WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL
WITH JUST A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

THIS PERIOD WILL THEN END WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING TO AN
END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WHICH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW LATE AS TEMPS COOL OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE
DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN ITS WAKE...A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND ATTENDANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS STILL RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR
OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET SOUTH OF THE LAKES AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE
ART TAF SITE. LOWER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS
PERIODICALLY SCATTER OUT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW- NE TO
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC
TO IFR IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ROC.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING FROM W-E WITH IFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A NOR`EASTER WILL EXITING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE TO WEAKEN ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
SO THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION TO FRESHEN THE WINDS
ON BOTH LAKES...WITH WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA.
WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO RE-EXAMINE THIS POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
FLAGS.

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
WAVES LIKELY REACHING 5 FEET ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AGAIN...A SCA
FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ISSUED IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270846
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE IT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS LAST THANKSGIVING WHEN
TEMPERATURES DID NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S...TODAY WILL BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF NORMAL WITH THE MERCURY REACHING CLOSE TO FREEZING. THE
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH BLACK FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. IT WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY MILDER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHEN THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COLD ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THANKSGIVING AS A
PHASED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE A BROAD RIDGE WILL DOMINANT THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BECOME LARGELY DRIVEN BY LAKE EFFECT
PROCESS AS WE PUSH THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME DETAILS...

THE NOR`EASTER THAT BROUGHT A FOOT OF SNOW TO SOME INLAND AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AWAY ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE LEAVING A
GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW OF COLD AIR OVER OUR REGION. GIVEN THAT LAKE
SFC TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S...THIS CYCLONIC FLOW OF
-10C H85 WILL COMBINE WITH A LITTLE UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE SOME
FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BE UNDER AN INCH...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SIGNIFICANT.

A SHORTWAVE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH DEEPENING COLD AIR AND A RISING
CAP PROMOTING MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
AS THE CAP LIFTS TO ARND 15K FT TONIGHT...A NORTHWEST FLOW FEATURING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER
HOUR. THE LAKE SNOW OFF ERIE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE...AND SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF TONIGHT WHEN THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
WILL THUS GO WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR 3-5 INCH ACCUMS
FOR CHAUTAUQUA...CATTARAUGUS...WYOMING (MAINLY SW) AND SRN ERIE
COUNTIES.

WHILE SIMILAR INSTABILITY AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE
SIMILAR OVER LK ONTARIO...THERE IS A STRONG SUGGESTION FROM THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION WILL BE IN PLACE TO
GEORGIAN BAY. THIS WILL PRIME THE BAND SO THAT SOMEWHAT MORE
EFFICIENT SNOW MAKING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LAKE SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AS WELL...WITH ACCUMS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED FROM NRN/ERN WAYNE COUNTY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MORE
PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ALONG THE LK ERIE
SHORE TO THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND FOR SITES
GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
INCREASE.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MORE SCATTERED AND
LESS ORGANIZED IN NATURE THANKS TO A SHORTER FETCH AND A LOWER CAP
OF AROUND 4 KFT...WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO TO KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO. MEANWHILE OFF
LAKE ONTARIO...THE COMBINATION OF A LONGER FETCH...A MUCH HIGHER CAP
OF 8-10 KFT...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED/
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE THESE DRIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WAYNE-OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND -13C/-14C...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD HELP TO SQUELCH ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AS THESE LIFT TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES FRIDAY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...A MUCH MORE GENERAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY...
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS POINT A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER BROAD/WEAK AND ONLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
QPF...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME MARKEDLY DOWNWARD TO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE CHANCE RANGE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT FRIDAY
NIGHT`S LOWS TO PREDOMINANTLY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY RISING TEMPS THEN FOLLOWING FROM THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
WE SHOULD SEE LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FRIDAY NIGHT
GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH
READINGS THEN WARMING EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARMING ALOFT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND WITH OUR
REGION SITUATED SQUARELY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO WESTERN QUEBEC. UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...925 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +4C EAST AND
AROUND +9C WEST...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
OTHERWISE...WITH ANY FORCING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING RATHER
WEAK AND DIFFUSE IN NATURE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL
WITH JUST A LOWER-END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.

THIS PERIOD WILL THEN END WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING TO AN
END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SWEEPS ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WHICH COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW LATE AS TEMPS COOL OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON MONDAY...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS FEATURE
DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN ITS WAKE...A FRESH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR MAY HELP TO GENERATE SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD QUICKLY END ALTOGETHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
SURFACE BASED RIDGING AND ATTENDANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS STILL RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR
OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET SOUTH OF THE LAKES AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE
ART TAF SITE. LOWER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS
PERIODICALLY SCATTER OUT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW- NE TO
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC
TO IFR IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ROC.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

LATER TODAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING FROM W-E WITH IFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WHILE A NOR`EASTER WILL EXITING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SFC PRESSURE TO WEAKEN ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
SO THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION TO FRESHEN THE WINDS
ON BOTH LAKES...WITH WINDS AND WAVES POSSIBLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA.
WILL ALLOW THE DAYSHIFT TO RE-EXAMINE THIS POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE
FLAGS.

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH
WAVES LIKELY REACHING 5 FEET ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AGAIN...A SCA
FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ISSUED IN A LATER FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBTV 270836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FAST
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH A
THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
QPF EXPECTED. BTV CWA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF 35-45KTS MOVING OVERHEAD
USHERING IN SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE
40S. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC
AND INTO NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL SEEING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN REGARDS TO
FROPA...BUT IT`S REALLY OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY NARROW SO ONCE
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW LEVEL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT OFFERING A COLD BUT
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS DROP BACK
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY INTO
THE 30S AND ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT RENEWING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>010-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 270751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAY/S SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 270751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
251 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTERDAY/S SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHUD
BE LGT AND GNRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDENCY TO DRIFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TEMPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHARP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVS THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AIR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATELY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THE NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM WL START OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AS TROF DIGS THRU
CANADA. EXPECT JUST LOW CHCS FOR PCPN SUN/MON AHD OF CDFNT
TREKKING THRU NERN U.S. TIMING DIFFERS ON FROPA WITH EC LAGGING
BHND GFS/CMC BY 12 HRS. THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 40 POPS ON
MONDAY TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING. RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED MON MRNG WITH
SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN AS TEMPS RISE TO NR CLIMO WITH HIGHS ARND
40F.

HIPRES BUILDS IN BHND CDFNT THRU THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SFC AND UPR
LVL TROF WL APPCH BY MID-WEEK LEADING TO ADDNL CHANCES FOR PCPN
WITH RA/SN NIGHTTIME AND SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF





000
FXUS61 KBGM 270730
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTWERDAY/S SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
[PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW WHRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHD
BE LGT AND GRNLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDANCY TO DRFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TMEPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHRP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVES THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AITR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATLY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THER NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270730
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LIGHT NORTH WIND BEHIND YESTWERDAY/S SNOWSTORM WILL BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
[PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRING DRY WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA...OTHER SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

LGT NLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC WITH A MORE WLY FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE UPR
TROF. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BRING LGT SNOW WHRS...ESP OVER THE FINGER LAKES. ACTIVITY SHD
BE LGT AND GRNLY DISORGANIZED...WITH A TENDANCY TO DRFT MORE TWRD
THE MOHAWK VLY IN THE AFTN AS THE LL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY. WITH
TMEPS NEAR FRZG AND LGT SNOWFALL...XPCT VERY LTL IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMS DURING THE PD.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO NRML WITH THE CLDS AND H8 TEMPS IN THE -8 TO
-10C RANGE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SHRP UPR WV APRCHS TNGT WHICH MAY INTENSIFY THE GNRLY WEAK LE.
STEERING FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE LYR IS WEAK AND SOMEWHAT SHEARED KEEPING
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER LE OUT OF THE AREA. STILL...COULD SEE SOME
AMTS APRCHG ADVISORY LATE TNGT AND EARLY FRI BEFORE A MORE WLY
FLOW AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN. DVLPG LE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SHRT WV AXIS MVES THRU BY 12Z FRI LDG TO INCRSG HGTS AND WRMR
AITR. FAST FLOW BRINGS SFC RDGG IN BY 00Z SAT ENDING ANY LEFTOVER
LE...AND CLRG SKIES. IMMEDIATLY BHD THE RDG...WAA BEGINS AND WILL
QUICKLY INCRS THE CLDS FRI NGT. CONTD WAA MAY DVLPS SOME
OVERRUNING PCPN...ESP SAT AFTN IN THER NY ZONES. TEMPS MRGNL BY THEN
BUT WILL CONT WITH SNOW SHWRS...HWVR SOME MIX PSBL LATE IN THE PD
OVER THE FINGER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PVF






000
FXUS61 KALY 270709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
BEEN CANCELED AT OF 07Z /2AM EST/.

REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN A QUICK DISSIPATION OF SNOW INTENSITY
AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS WAS CLEARING WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AT THIS TIME.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ARE UPSTREAM WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THANKSGIVING WEATHER THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN
THE NEXT UPDATE.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH
TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 270709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
209 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ALL HEADLINES FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
BEEN CANCELED AT OF 07Z /2AM EST/.

REGIONAL RADAR HAS SHOWN A QUICK DISSIPATION OF SNOW INTENSITY
AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS WAS CLEARING WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AT THIS TIME.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE ARE UPSTREAM WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THANKSGIVING WEATHER THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN
THE NEXT UPDATE.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH
TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TODAY FOR THE VALLEY TAF
SITES...WITH CONTINUED MVFR AT KPSF. A VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW LATER THANKSGIVING DAY TO
THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY
SUNSET. A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER
THANKSGIVING DAY AND EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 270552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270552
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KMSS THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED TO 1-2SM AND WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. MEANWHILE...CIGS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. SNOW TAPERS OFF AFTER 12Z
THOUGH MVFR CIGS PREVAIL. AT KMSS...FINALLY SEEING SOME MVFR CIGS
FILTER IN WHICH WILL BECOME OVC025 BY 12Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR TRENDS TO VFR BY 18Z FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 270548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TONIGHT AS
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 PM... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT AND THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST OFF TO THE
EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM OVERNIGHT AS LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NEW YORK STATE IN
THE LIGHT NNW FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT THE FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING THAT MAIN
ROADWAYS ARE MOSTLY JUST WET... ALTHOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS... AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS COULD STILL BE SNOW COVERED. FARTHER EAST WILL LET
THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR AWHILE AS ROADS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS
AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ045-046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PVF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270548
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TONIGHT AS
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 PM... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT AND THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST OFF TO THE
EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM OVERNIGHT AS LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NEW YORK STATE IN
THE LIGHT NNW FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT THE FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING THAT MAIN
ROADWAYS ARE MOSTLY JUST WET... ALTHOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS... AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS COULD STILL BE SNOW COVERED. FARTHER EAST WILL LET
THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR AWHILE AS ROADS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS
AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
SNOW IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS TERMINALS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF TAF
VALID TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE 2SM IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 08Z WITH
ITH SEEING IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z. PREDOMINANT MVFR -SHSN EXPECTED
AT NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

UNRESTRICTED SNOW SHOWERS THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING WITH EXCEPTION OF
AVP AND ELM AFTER 17Z AND BGM AFTER 21Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE NW AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ045-046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1242 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TRACKING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS PULLING AWAY QUICKLY. ANY LINGERING BANDS OF
PRECIP WILL END...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH UP THE COLUMN
PER LAPS SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SNOW.

TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

LAST OF THE PCPN TAPERING OFF THRU 7Z. MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE EXITING
SNOW.

LITTLE OR NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

MVFR CIGS LINGER AFT THE SNOW ENDS...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO
TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING WITH
THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE
IN AROUND 310 TRUE. STRONGEST WINDS KISP AND KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ALL WATERS EXCEPT EASTERN OCEAN ZONE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH FORK.

HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1242 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TRACKING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS PULLING AWAY QUICKLY. ANY LINGERING BANDS OF
PRECIP WILL END...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH UP THE COLUMN
PER LAPS SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SNOW.

TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

LAST OF THE PCPN TAPERING OFF THRU 7Z. MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE EXITING
SNOW.

LITTLE OR NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

MVFR CIGS LINGER AFT THE SNOW ENDS...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO
TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING WITH
THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE
IN AROUND 310 TRUE. STRONGEST WINDS KISP AND KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ALL WATERS EXCEPT EASTERN OCEAN ZONE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH FORK.

HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1242 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TRACKING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS PULLING AWAY QUICKLY. ANY LINGERING BANDS OF
PRECIP WILL END...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH UP THE COLUMN
PER LAPS SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SNOW.

TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

LAST OF THE PCPN TAPERING OFF THRU 7Z. MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE EXITING
SNOW.

LITTLE OR NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

MVFR CIGS LINGER AFT THE SNOW ENDS...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO
TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING WITH
THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE
IN AROUND 310 TRUE. STRONGEST WINDS KISP AND KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ALL WATERS EXCEPT EASTERN OCEAN ZONE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH FORK.

HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270542
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1242 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...TRACKING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS PULLING AWAY QUICKLY. ANY LINGERING BANDS OF
PRECIP WILL END...WITH MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH UP THE COLUMN
PER LAPS SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT SNOW.

TEMPS ON TRACK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE
PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

LAST OF THE PCPN TAPERING OFF THRU 7Z. MAINLY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE EXITING
SNOW.

LITTLE OR NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION.

MVFR CIGS LINGER AFT THE SNOW ENDS...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO
TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING WITH
THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...THEN SETTLE
IN AROUND 310 TRUE. STRONGEST WINDS KISP AND KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ALL WATERS EXCEPT EASTERN OCEAN ZONE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH FORK.

HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 270538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1238 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MORNING. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES BANDS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE WEAKENING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT
EXPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO START DROPPING THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. SNOWFALL TOTALS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH AROUND A FOOT IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN
SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON
AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE
BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING EFFECTS HAVE BEEN
MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL ESTIMATES SHOWING A
TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WHERE
TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ESSEX, NY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2 INCHES NORTH AND
WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT LITTLE IF ANY
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW PASSING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/LIFT TO
PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER
SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH
RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A
GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001-
     002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028-
     031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 270453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS STILL RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET SOUTH OF THE LAKES
AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS
PERIODICALLY SCATTER OUT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW- NE TO
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC
TO IFR IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ROC.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING FROM W-E WITH IFR
OR MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 270453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS STILL RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET SOUTH OF THE LAKES
AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS
PERIODICALLY SCATTER OUT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW- NE TO
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC
TO IFR IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ROC.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING FROM W-E WITH IFR
OR MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 270453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS STILL RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET SOUTH OF THE LAKES
AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS
PERIODICALLY SCATTER OUT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW- NE TO
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC
TO IFR IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ROC.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING FROM W-E WITH IFR
OR MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 270453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS STILL RESULTING
IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET SOUTH OF THE LAKES
AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CIGS
PERIODICALLY SCATTER OUT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW- NE TO
ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC
TO IFR IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ROC.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING FROM W-E WITH IFR
OR MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 270336
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS
STILL RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET
SOUTH OF THE LAKES AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AS LOW CIGS PERIODICALLY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW-NE TO ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC TO IFR
IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270336
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS
STILL RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET
SOUTH OF THE LAKES AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AS LOW CIGS PERIODICALLY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW-NE TO ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC TO IFR
IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 270336
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS
STILL RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET
SOUTH OF THE LAKES AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AS LOW CIGS PERIODICALLY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW-NE TO ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC TO IFR
IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 270336
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED
LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THEN ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW HAS ALREADY EXITED TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW LINGERING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP MODESTLY DOWN TO ABOUT -10C THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SMALL VALUES OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH
A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH OF THE LAKES. A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/HRRR/WRF/ARW) ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING LIGHT QPF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO
FULTON. THIS WOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE THE LONGER FETCH ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO...AND POSSIBLY A SUBTLE CONVERGENCE ZONE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT EXPECTED
TO BE MULTI-BANDED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD INCLUDE EASTERN MONROE COUNTY...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. THE ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR HIGHER (ADVISORY AMOUNTS)
WOULD BE IF SNOW HAS A SIGNIFICANT FLUFF FACTOR...OR IF STEADIER
SNOWS FOCUS ON ONE LOCATION FOR A LONG TIME.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION...WITH SNOW
FLURRIES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR IN PARTICULAR) HAS PICKED UP ON A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN
LAKE ERIE...BUT WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW THIS WILL LARGELY FOCUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MEANDER ONSHORE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY (MAYBE AN INCH OR SO)...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A MINIMAL DIURNAL RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED AS THE COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS
STILL RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUDS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 3K FEET
SOUTH OF THE LAKES AND INCLUDING ALL BUT THE ART TAF SITE. LOWER
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS AT JHW.

EXPECT JHW TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AS LOW CIGS PERIODICALLY
SCATTER OUT. EXPECT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIFTING FROM SW-NE TO ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH MAY LOWER ROC TO IFR
IN SNOW/CIGS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
CIGS AROUND 3K FT OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT...WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID-DAY. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270316
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TONIGHT AS
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 PM... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT AND THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST OFF TO THE
EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM OVERNIGHT AS LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NEW YORK STATE IN
THE LIGHT NNW FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT THE FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENEARLLY LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING THAT MAIN
ROADWAYS ARE MOSTLY JUST WET... ALTHOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS... AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS COULD STILL BE SNOW COVERED. FARTHER EAST WILL LET
THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR AWHILE AS ROADS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS
AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270316
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TONIGHT AS
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 PM... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT AND THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST OFF TO THE
EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM OVERNIGHT AS LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NEW YORK STATE IN
THE LIGHT NNW FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT THE FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENEARLLY LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING THAT MAIN
ROADWAYS ARE MOSTLY JUST WET... ALTHOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS... AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS COULD STILL BE SNOW COVERED. FARTHER EAST WILL LET
THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR AWHILE AS ROADS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS
AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270316
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TONIGHT AS
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 PM... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT AND THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST OFF TO THE
EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM OVERNIGHT AS LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NEW YORK STATE IN
THE LIGHT NNW FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT THE FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENEARLLY LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING THAT MAIN
ROADWAYS ARE MOSTLY JUST WET... ALTHOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS... AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS COULD STILL BE SNOW COVERED. FARTHER EAST WILL LET
THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR AWHILE AS ROADS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS
AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270316
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TONIGHT AS
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF
UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 1015 PM... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST OF CAPE
COD OVERNIGHT AND THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST OFF TO THE
EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORM OVERNIGHT AS LOTS OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION SOME WEAK LIFT WILL BE GENERATED BY
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NEW YORK STATE IN
THE LIGHT NNW FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT BUT THE FLOW IS VERY LIGHT AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENEARLLY LESS THAN AN INCH. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES AS REPORTS ARE INDICATING THAT MAIN
ROADWAYS ARE MOSTLY JUST WET... ALTHOUGH FALLING TEMPERATURES
COULD STILL LEAD TO SOME ICY SPOTS IN THOSE AREAS... AND SOME
SECONDARY ROADS COULD STILL BE SNOW COVERED. FARTHER EAST WILL LET
THE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR AWHILE AS ROADS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS
AND SNOW COVERED IN MANY AREAS DESPITE ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 270247
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 947 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE...THOUGH DID TIGHTEN SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY,
NY INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AND OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. BASED OFF
RADAR ESTIMATES IN THE BANDED AREA...HAVE UPGRADED ESSEX, NY TO A
WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY IN WHICH BANDING
EFFECTS HAVE BEEN MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING. RADAR SNOWFALL
ESTIMATES SHOWING A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...WHERE TOTALS RANGE FROM ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ESSEX, NY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ADDISON VT...TO AS LITTLE AS 1-2
INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF A PLATTSBURGH TO ST ALBANS LINE. IN FACT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. LATEST MSAS PROGS SHOWING 997 COASTAL LOW NOW
PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AS OF 930 PM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MARITIMES LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING/LIFT TO PIVOT EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING MUCH LIGHTER SNOWS/FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
AREAS TO AVERAGE IN THE 6-12 INCH RANGE...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS...WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY OF COURSE. LOWS STILL
ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270224
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS ABOUT TO PASS JUST NW OF 40N/70W. DRY SLOT IS
KEEPING PRECIP RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THINK BANDS OF
PRECIP JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO SNOW IN NYC METRO AND UP INTO SW CT...WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS STILL POSSIBLE.
FOR THIS REASON DROPPED ADVYS IN NYC...AND REPLACED WARNINGS
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC WITH ADVYS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

DROPPED WIND ADVY AS WINDS HAVE BACKED N OUT EAST AND ARE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF NANTUCKET WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

MAINLY MVFR WITH -RASN AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO NJ WILL PRODUCE SOME -SN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THRU 6Z...PRODUCING IFR AT TIMES.

AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS LINGER AFT THE SNOW ENDS...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO
TIM E TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING
WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST
WINDS KISP AND KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ON THE HARBOR/WESTERN SOUND. GALES CONTINUE ON MOST OTHER WATERS
TIL MIDNIGHT...AND COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES
BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS. SURF OF 2-4 FT ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES
OF LI SOUND AND THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE
ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270224
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
924 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS ABOUT TO PASS JUST NW OF 40N/70W. DRY SLOT IS
KEEPING PRECIP RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THINK BANDS OF
PRECIP JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO SNOW IN NYC METRO AND UP INTO SW CT...WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS STILL POSSIBLE.
FOR THIS REASON DROPPED ADVYS IN NYC...AND REPLACED WARNINGS
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC WITH ADVYS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

DROPPED WIND ADVY AS WINDS HAVE BACKED N OUT EAST AND ARE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF NANTUCKET WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

MAINLY MVFR WITH -RASN AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN
ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO NJ WILL PRODUCE SOME -SN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THRU 6Z...PRODUCING IFR AT TIMES.

AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS LINGER AFT THE SNOW ENDS...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM TIME TO
TIM E TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN THANKSGIVING
WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST
WINDS KISP AND KGON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ON THE HARBOR/WESTERN SOUND. GALES CONTINUE ON MOST OTHER WATERS
TIL MIDNIGHT...AND COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES
BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS. SURF OF 2-4 FT ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES
OF LI SOUND AND THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE
ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 270154
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS ABOUT TO PASS JUST NW OF 40N/70W. DRY SLOT IS
KEEPING PRECIP RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THINK BANDS OF
PRECIP JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO SNOW IN NYC METRO AND UP INTO SW CT...WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS STILL POSSIBLE.
FOR THIS REASON DROPPED ADVYS IN NYC...AND REPLACED WARNINGS
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC WITH ADVYS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

DROPPED WIND ADVY AS WINDS HAVE BACKED N OUT EAST AND ARE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

MAINLY MVFR WITH -RA AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN
ACROSS ERN PA WILL ATTEMPT TO COME THRU THIS EVE. CHANGE TO SNOW
LIKELY IN THE BAND...ASSUMING IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

THEREAFTER IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS LINGER...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM
TIME TO TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN
THANKSGIVING WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST
WINDS KISP AND KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TNGT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH TNGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ON THE HARBOR/WESTERN SOUND. GALES CONTINUE ON MOST OTHER WATERS
TIL MIDNIGHT...AND COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES
BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS. SURF OF 2-4 FT ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES
OF LI SOUND AND THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE
ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270154
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
854 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA SCOTIA
BY DAYBREAK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW IS ABOUT TO PASS JUST NW OF 40N/70W. DRY SLOT IS
KEEPING PRECIP RAIN OR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THINK BANDS OF
PRECIP JUST NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO SNOW IN NYC METRO AND UP INTO SW CT...WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS STILL POSSIBLE.
FOR THIS REASON DROPPED ADVYS IN NYC...AND REPLACED WARNINGS
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE/PUTNAM/W PASSAIC WITH ADVYS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

DROPPED WIND ADVY AS WINDS HAVE BACKED N OUT EAST AND ARE
DIMINISHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

MAINLY MVFR WITH -RA AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN
ACROSS ERN PA WILL ATTEMPT TO COME THRU THIS EVE. CHANGE TO SNOW
LIKELY IN THE BAND...ASSUMING IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

THEREAFTER IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS LINGER...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM
TIME TO TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN
THANKSGIVING WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST
WINDS KISP AND KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TNGT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH TNGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE COASTAL LOW HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...WITH
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SPIKING AS HIGH AS 13 FT.
THE DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...AND REPLACED GALES WITH SCA
ON THE HARBOR/WESTERN SOUND. GALES CONTINUE ON MOST OTHER WATERS
TIL MIDNIGHT...AND COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU...AND COULD LINGER
OUT EAST THU NIGHT.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES
BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR INUNDATION OF LOW LYING
COASTAL AREAS. SURF OF 2-4 FT ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES
OF LI SOUND AND THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION
AND LOCALIZED SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE
ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/JM
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KBUF 270017
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
717 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FRESH COATING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD UP THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER. THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO IMPACTS...FIRST FROM THE
ONGOING NOR`EASTER...AND THEN SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY.

FOR THE NOR`EASTER...THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TONIGHT REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WESTERN SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH SYNOPTIC SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THE NOR`EASTER
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EAST OF FULTON...WITH AN INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THIS...AND NIL WEST OF ROCHESTER. STORM TOTALS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE IN LEWIS AND PORTIONS OF
OSWEGO COUNTY.

BY LATE TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER A COLD -10C 850 HPA AIRMASS WILL BE PULLED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BOTH GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BE ALIGNED IN THE SHALLOW 4K
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND
ACROSS WAYNE-CAYUGA AND WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
RGEM/NAM/HRRR/WRF...WHICH SHOW AN INCREASING LAKE RESPONSE LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY. LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS
MARGINAL...AND WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW NOT CONDUCIVE TO A SINGULAR
ORGANIZED BAND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS
SAID...SHALLOW BANDS OF SNOW MAY BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A MINORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF
CONVERGENCE BAND DEVELOPING ON LAKE ERIE...WHICH IS FEASIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
THIS BAND...IF IT DEVELOPS...IS LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT IT COULD GLANCE THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
SO.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 00Z LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED WEST OF ROC...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES EXPECTED AT BUF/IAG/JHW. DESPITE THIS...EXPECT LINGERING
LAKE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JHW.

STEADY SNOW SHOULD END AT ROC/ART BY 02Z OR SO...BUT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. THESE MAY
IMPACT ROC...WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...HAVE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
ROC GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DE TERMING THE EXACT LOCATION OF LAKE
SNOWS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3K FEET...WITH A MIX
OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT JHW/ROC.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 270017
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
717 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FRESH COATING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
CAPE COD AND ADVANCING NORTHWARD UP THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER. THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO IMPACTS...FIRST FROM THE
ONGOING NOR`EASTER...AND THEN SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY.

FOR THE NOR`EASTER...THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TONIGHT REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WESTERN SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH SYNOPTIC SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THE NOR`EASTER
SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO EAST OF FULTON...WITH AN INCH OR LESS
WEST OF THIS...AND NIL WEST OF ROCHESTER. STORM TOTALS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE IN LEWIS AND PORTIONS OF
OSWEGO COUNTY.

BY LATE TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER A COLD -10C 850 HPA AIRMASS WILL BE PULLED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BOTH GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BE ALIGNED IN THE SHALLOW 4K
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND
ACROSS WAYNE-CAYUGA AND WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
RGEM/NAM/HRRR/WRF...WHICH SHOW AN INCREASING LAKE RESPONSE LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY. LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS
MARGINAL...AND WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW NOT CONDUCIVE TO A SINGULAR
ORGANIZED BAND EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS
SAID...SHALLOW BANDS OF SNOW MAY BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. A MINORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF
CONVERGENCE BAND DEVELOPING ON LAKE ERIE...WHICH IS FEASIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
THIS BAND...IF IT DEVELOPS...IS LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY AREAS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT IT COULD GLANCE THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
SO.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARM UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM UP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 00Z LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED WEST OF ROC...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES EXPECTED AT BUF/IAG/JHW. DESPITE THIS...EXPECT LINGERING
LAKE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JHW.

STEADY SNOW SHOULD END AT ROC/ART BY 02Z OR SO...BUT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. THESE MAY
IMPACT ROC...WITH IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...HAVE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
ROC GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DE TERMING THE EXACT LOCATION OF LAKE
SNOWS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT CIGS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3K FEET...WITH A MIX
OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. PERIODICALLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT JHW/ROC.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A BRIEF SCA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO BASED ON NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BUILD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.


COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACKPOT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.


COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACKPOT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.


COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACKPOT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 270011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
711 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 700 PM EST...THE OFFICE JUST CHECKED IN WITH THE CONTRACT WX
OBSERVER AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND 6.5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS 0.55 INCHES. THE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO FOR THE EVENT IS 12:1 AT ALY. HAMILTON COUNTY HAS
COME IN WITH 5 TO 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS. MOST RECENTLY 6 INCHES AT
INDIAN LAKE. WE BELIEVE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WARNING. THERE
WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN THIS COUNTY RANGING FROM 3 OR 4 INCHES
OVER THE NW CORNER TO PERHAPS 10 OR 12 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.


COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE N/NE TO SOUTH OF KACK.
SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA. ONE
MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY INTO
FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS MAYBE BE A LITTLE LOWER 8-10:1 TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WHICH MAY KEEP THE TOTALS DOWN A BIT
TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE /8 TO 14 INCHES/. HOWEVER...SOME
DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS HAVE BEEN COME IN FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND SRN
TACONICS SO FAR. THE JACKPOT AREA MAYBE THE BERKSHIRES...AND SRN
GREENS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 PM EST...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 262356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF
THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 262356
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY
AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION... GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHTER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF
THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WILL QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS. SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY REGION BY
00Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BETWEEN 1 AND 3C. ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H
JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRONT WITH NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE
SWEEPS ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS AGAIN.
LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS
ON ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AND CEILINGS
RANGING BETWEEN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR THRU 06Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 06Z. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
ALL SITES AFTER ABOUT 12Z WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS BECOMING VFR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT
SLK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE
NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NEILES/TABER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 262338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 20Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A NEAR TERM TRACK BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT
AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING
PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF SOUTHERN
CT RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ONLY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE
NJ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND FAR
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 7-8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE MAX SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12
INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH PIVOTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT AND AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PLUS GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING TO AID
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S
NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES SE OF MONTAUK AND G-WAVE DUCT POTENTIAL ALSO PEAKS. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

MAINLY MVFR WITH -RA AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN
ACROSS ERN PA WILL ATTEMPT TO COME THRU THIS EVE. CHANGE TO SNOW
LIKELY IN THE BAND...ASSUMING IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

THEREAFTER IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS LINGER...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM
TIME TO TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN
THANKSGIVING WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST
WINDS KISP AND KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TNGT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH TNGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950
MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS AND GRAVITY WAVES TO AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...EXPECT A PD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST...EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW
CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 262338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
638 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 20Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A NEAR TERM TRACK BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT
AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING
PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF SOUTHERN
CT RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ONLY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE
NJ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND FAR
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 7-8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE MAX SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12
INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH PIVOTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT AND AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PLUS GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING TO AID
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S
NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES SE OF MONTAUK AND G-WAVE DUCT POTENTIAL ALSO PEAKS. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK NEWD TNGT. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSES ON THANKSGIVING.

MAINLY MVFR WITH -RA AND BR ACROSS THE REGION. WRN SHIELD OF PCPN
ACROSS ERN PA WILL ATTEMPT TO COME THRU THIS EVE. CHANGE TO SNOW
LIKELY IN THE BAND...ASSUMING IT HOLDS TOGETHER.

THEREAFTER IT APPEARS MVFR CIGS LINGER...PERHAPS BOUNCING FROM
TIME TO TIME TO VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR -SHSN
THANKSGIVING WITH THE WEAK UPR SYS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TNGT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STRONGEST
WINDS KISP AND KGON.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE TNGT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TNGT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SNOW ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH TNGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH POSSIBLE -SHSN OF FLURRIES.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950
MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS AND GRAVITY WAVES TO AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...EXPECT A PD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST...EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW
CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FIG/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 262330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARTIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDIITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING
MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT
NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS
SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE
NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND ONLY NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS OF 600 PM TO
BLEND WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT
QUICKLY NORTHEAST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND WILL PASS NEAR
NANTUCKET AND POINTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE MARTIMES LATER TONIGHT. BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS HAVE
SET UP OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
ADDIITIONALLY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FGEN IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE SNOW GROWTH LAYER IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INVOF KBTV TO NEAR NEWPORT VT. WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF 4-8
INCHES ALREADY ACROSS CENTRAL/SC VERMONT WITH 2-4 INCHES NOTED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND. SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW TOTALS NORTH AND
WEST OF KBTV WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SLV STILL REMAINING DRY OR
JUST SEEING FLURRIES. STORM TOTALS OF 6-13 INCHES...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SOUTH STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE WARNING AREA...WITH
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND WEST AS STEADIER/HEAVIER
SNOWS TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...


PRIOR DISCUSSION...
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED
WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING
MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT
NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS 700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS
SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO
AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE
NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 262314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBGM 262259
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
559 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262259
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
559 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF






000
FXUS61 KALY 262252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

...THIS UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN THE
WINTER STORM WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 551 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE N/NE TO
SOUTH OF KACK. SEVERAL MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST
AREA. ONE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND HAS BEEN HAMMERING SRN HERKIMER CTY
INTO FULTON...MONTGOMERY...SE HAMILTON...AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.
SOME TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE COME IN THERE. FOR
EXAMPLE...COLUMBIA CENTER HAD 6.5 INCHES AROUND 4 PM. EXPECTING
5-10 INCHES ACROSS SRN HERKIMER CTY...WITH PERHAPS 6-12 INCHES
FROM ILION...AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTH AND EAST.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 262135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 433 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES S/SE
KACY NJ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHERE THE MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE 4-5 HPA/3 HRS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL TRACK TO THE WEST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASE SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SR GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES IF SOME HIGHER TOTALS COME IN WITH THE BAND CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THOSE AREAS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION TONIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA/IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 262135
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR`EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

AS OF 433 PM EST...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES S/SE
KACY NJ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHERE THE MSAS PRESSURE FALLS ARE 4-5 HPA/3 HRS INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL TRACK TO THE WEST OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH H500 HEIGHTS OVERLAYED BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND A
STRONG JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE CAROLINAS. A SHORT-WAVE IS
DIGGING EQUATORWARD IN THE H500 TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND WILL CAPTURE THE COASTAL WAVE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LATE THIS PM NICELY SHOWS THE BAROCLINIC
LEAFLET TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF ADVECTING IN FROM THE S/SW.

THE SNOW SHIELD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE ALY FCST AREA IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.  SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH/HOUR RANGE OCCASIONALLY WITH THE MULTIBANDS ON THE N/NW
QUADRANT OF NOR`EASTER. WE EXPECT THESE BANDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THESE BANDS
WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.

THESE MESOSCALE MULTI-BANDS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT INTENSE BURSTS OF
SNOWFALL. THE H700 CIRCULATIONS TO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE
OFF OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND MESOSCALE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE. TYPICALLY...A SINGLE BAND COULD FORM BASED ON
THE CSTAR RESEARCH WITH SUNYA. THE LATEST 2D FGEN FROM THE NAM/GFS
SETS UP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CROSS-
SECTIONS FROM THE NAM FROM DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...THROUGH THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND INTO CT SHOWS STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL THICKNESS ADVECTION WITH -EPV ABOVE THE MAX
FGEN. THE -10C TO -16C DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTERSECTS THIS
AREA OF MAXIMUM OMEGA AND FGEN.

PERIODS OF MDT-HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FROM
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. WE HAVE INCREASE SNOW TOTALS TO
10-20 INCHES OVER THE SR GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. 10-14 INCHES WILL
BE COMMON OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN
TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OVER THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CNTRL-ERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. LESS AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES BEFORE ALL IS SAID
AND DONE. WE MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE SRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES IF SOME HIGHER TOTALS COME IN WITH THE BAND CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THOSE AREAS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THIS EVENING
WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS. BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION TONIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA/IAA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 262122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 20Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A NEAR TERM TRACK BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT
AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING
PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF SOUTHERN
CT RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ONLY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE
NJ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND FAR
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 7-8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE MAX SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12
INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH PIVOTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT AND AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PLUS GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING TO AID
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S
NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES SE OF MONTAUK AND G-WAVE DUCT POTENTIAL ALSO PEAKS. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. LOCAL CONDITIONS COULD VARY BY ONE CATEGORY AT TIMES. KSWF
ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS RA CHANGING TO WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN EARLY EVE BEFORE ENDING. TO THE
EAST...MAINLY RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GUSTY NE FLOW
BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE
WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS EVE.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...3-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950
MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS AND GRAVITY WAVES TO AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...EXPECT A PD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST...EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW
CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/FIG
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 20Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A NEAR TERM TRACK BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT
AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING
PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF SOUTHERN
CT RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ONLY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE
NJ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND FAR
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 7-8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE MAX SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12
INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH PIVOTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT AND AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PLUS GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING TO AID
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S
NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES SE OF MONTAUK AND G-WAVE DUCT POTENTIAL ALSO PEAKS. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. LOCAL CONDITIONS COULD VARY BY ONE CATEGORY AT TIMES. KSWF
ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS RA CHANGING TO WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN EARLY EVE BEFORE ENDING. TO THE
EAST...MAINLY RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GUSTY NE FLOW
BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE
WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS EVE.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...3-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950
MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS AND GRAVITY WAVES TO AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...EXPECT A PD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST...EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW
CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/FIG
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 262122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 20Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A NEAR TERM TRACK BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT
AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING
PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF SOUTHERN
CT RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ONLY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE
NJ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND FAR
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 7-8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE MAX SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12
INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH PIVOTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT AND AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PLUS GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING TO AID
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S
NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES SE OF MONTAUK AND G-WAVE DUCT POTENTIAL ALSO PEAKS. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. LOCAL CONDITIONS COULD VARY BY ONE CATEGORY AT TIMES. KSWF
ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS RA CHANGING TO WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN EARLY EVE BEFORE ENDING. TO THE
EAST...MAINLY RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GUSTY NE FLOW
BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE
WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS EVE.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...3-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950
MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS AND GRAVITY WAVES TO AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...EXPECT A PD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST...EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW
CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/FIG
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262122
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 20Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A NEAR TERM TRACK BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT
AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING
PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS NYC METRO...LONG ISLAND AND MOST OF SOUTHERN
CT RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ONLY AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE
NJ...INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND FAR
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 7-8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY...WILL CONTINUE MAX SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12
INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO THE SOUTH PIVOTS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT AND AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PLUS GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING TO AID
IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S
NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
PASSES SE OF MONTAUK AND G-WAVE DUCT POTENTIAL ALSO PEAKS. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DURING DAY AND SOME FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S...WITH WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY/COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THEN A SURFACE
LOW SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.

WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. LOCAL CONDITIONS COULD VARY BY ONE CATEGORY AT TIMES. KSWF
ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS RA CHANGING TO WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN EARLY EVE BEFORE ENDING. TO THE
EAST...MAINLY RAIN WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GUSTY NE FLOW
BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE
WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS EVE.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...3-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME INTO EARLY EVE.
SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS THIS EVENING. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM AROUND 950
MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS AND GRAVITY WAVES TO AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...EXPECT A PD OF SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET
UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE PRESENT ON ALL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN END.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS COULD REACH
MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25
KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...HIGHEST EAST...EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW
CT...LITTLE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR ON EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASH-OVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/FIG
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/FIG
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/FIG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV






000
FXUS61 KBGM 262053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL FROM NEAR KBGM EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KBGM AND KAVP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH WE DON`T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE ABOVE IFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KELM AND KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 262053
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL FROM NEAR KBGM EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KBGM AND KAVP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH WE DON`T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE ABOVE IFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KELM AND KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...TRACKING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND REACHING SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA
BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS VERMONT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THANKSGIVING. SEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...GREATEST IMPACTS FROM NOR`EASTER WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEEING 1+" PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES IN ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BANDING EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL VT INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GETTING MULTIPLE ASOS REPORTS OF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL. THE MESOSCALE BAND MAY PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
700MB LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN WWD MOISTURE ADVECTION THRU
THIS EVENING...AND ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT...AND THE NY SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATED SNOW GRAPHIC PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW. GENERALLY 6-12" ACROSS
VERMONT...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES...WHERE A
STRAY 13-14" REPORT IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 6" LOOKS GOOD AT BTV. FOR
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...LOOKING AT 3-6" ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN ISLAND...FRANKLIN VT...AND CLINTON/ESSEX NY. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHER SNOWS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HRS BEFORE ENDING.

INITIALLY...2-M TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING...BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN TO AROUND 30F MOST SECTIONS. THE
INITIAL SNOWFALL HAS MELTED ON PAVEMENT AND IS YIELDING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAKING
MOST ROADS VERY SLICK. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT THRU MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE
OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL
VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST (AROUND 12" TOTAL).

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BE OVER BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
30S. DID NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES.

A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 25-32F ON
FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBUF 262034
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FRESH COATING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A BAROCLINIC
LEAF SIGNATURE GENERALLY EAST OF I-81 AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING TO AN AREA OF GREATEST LIFT.

THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO IMPACTS...FIRST FROM THE
ONGOING NOR`EASTER...AND THEN SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACTIVITY.

FOR THE NOR`EASTER...THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TONIGHT REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WESTERN SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH SYNOPTIC SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AREAS WHERE SNOW LINGERS LONGEST AND
TOWARDS GREATER LIFT...ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES SNOWFALL
TOTALS MAY LOCALLY REACH HALF A FOOT...FOR SUCH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FROM THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...AND DOWN TO A COATING OF FRESH SNOW FARTHER WESTWARD
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE.

BY LATE TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER A COLD -10C 850 HPA AIRMASS WILL BE PULLED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BOTH GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BE ALIGNED IN THE SHALLOW 4K
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND
ACROSS WAYNE-CAYUGA AND WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THOUGH SHALLOW BANDS
OF SNOW...PERSISTENT BANDS MAY END UP BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY ALSO BRING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...BUT THE SHORT FETCH OVER LAKE ERIE...AND LESS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARMUP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARMUP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION FROM THE COASTAL LOW. THIS SNOW IS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO IFR RANGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS FOUND ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
SNOW. FOR THE AIRFIELDS EXPECT A REDUCTION TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR WHERE THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
BACKING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINING 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERAL DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND THUS WILL
DROP THE SCA FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 262034
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FRESH COATING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A BAROCLINIC
LEAF SIGNATURE GENERALLY EAST OF I-81 AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING TO AN AREA OF GREATEST LIFT.

THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO IMPACTS...FIRST FROM THE
ONGOING NOR`EASTER...AND THEN SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACTIVITY.

FOR THE NOR`EASTER...THIS COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TONIGHT REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WESTERN SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH SYNOPTIC SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AREAS WHERE SNOW LINGERS LONGEST AND
TOWARDS GREATER LIFT...ACROSS OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES SNOWFALL
TOTALS MAY LOCALLY REACH HALF A FOOT...FOR SUCH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
FROM THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...AND DOWN TO A COATING OF FRESH SNOW FARTHER WESTWARD
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE.

BY LATE TONIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES...HOWEVER A COLD -10C 850 HPA AIRMASS WILL BE PULLED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BOTH GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BE ALIGNED IN THE SHALLOW 4K
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INLAND
ACROSS WAYNE-CAYUGA AND WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THOUGH SHALLOW BANDS
OF SNOW...PERSISTENT BANDS MAY END UP BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY ALSO BRING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...BUT THE SHORT FETCH OVER LAKE ERIE...AND LESS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW AGAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY TO
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE A
BETTER ALIGNED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.

ALTHOUGH OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
DELTA T/S AROUND 15C...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOK TO RISE
TO OVER 10K FEET FOR A TIME THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME MULTIPLE LAKE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE BANDS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE ACTIVITY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT DEVELOPS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNALING
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOLID WARMUP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE TO NEAR
+10C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REAL FORCING MECHANISM FOR
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARMUP APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS A
ROUND OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES HEIGHT FALLS WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BAND OF
SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY LAKE EFFECT WHICH CAN
MATERIALIZE MONDAY SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION FROM THE COASTAL LOW. THIS SNOW IS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO IFR RANGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS FOUND ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
SNOW. FOR THE AIRFIELDS EXPECT A REDUCTION TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR WHERE THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
BACKING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINING 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERAL DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND THUS WILL
DROP THE SCA FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBGM 262015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL FROM NEAR KBGM EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KBGM AND KAVP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH WE DON`T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE ABOVE IFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KELM AND KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 262015
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL FROM NEAR KBGM EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KBGM AND KAVP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH WE DON`T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE ABOVE IFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KELM AND KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 262013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 262013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING
SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING...AND MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1133 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND 12Z MODEL
TRENDS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WRN
CHITTENDEN AND ERN FRANKLIN VT ZONES...AND EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WWD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND CLINTON
COUNTY NY. FOR UPDATED SNOW TOTALS PLEASE SEE OUR MAPS AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTH EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING
FAR SRN VERMONT AT 1430Z...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN IN RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES BY NOON. NWD ADVANCE OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL
VT 1-3PM AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 2-4 PM. INITIALLY...2-M
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...SO INITIAL SNOW
WILL MELT ON PAVEMENT AND THEN YIELD A THIN LAYER OF ICE BENEATH
THE SNOW...MAKING UNTREATED ROADS SLICK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THAT...AND LOW VISIBILITY IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS VT ZONES BEGINNING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU
MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW MAY YIELD SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE LOWEST (10:1) AND WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST
(AROUND 12" TOTAL).

FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE SURFACE LOW IS
DEEPENING ACROSS ERN NC AT 1430Z...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TO DEEPENING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. GOOD
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WELL. IT APPEARS FROM
THE 12Z NAM THAT THE 700MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO CUTOFF ACROSS SWRN
NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL HELP IN WWD
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SNOWS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NRN NY...FURTHER
REMOVED FROM BEST FORCING. OUR SNOWFALL GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV/STORMTOTALSNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 509 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW TRACKS UP ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THEN TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW RATIOS INCREASE WITH GOOD
DENDRITE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TEMPS FALLING INTO 20S. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT TO 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH- CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VERMONT WHERE SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MAX TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL BE DRY WITH
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A QUIET WX PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED AS FAST WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SYSTEMS. WEAK WARM FRNT WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WL
LIFT FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MENTION
SOME SCHC/LOW CHC POPS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT QPF WL BE VERY LIGHT.
THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WL
QUICKLY WARM UNDER STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
SFC LOW PRES TRACKS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TWD THE HUDSON
BAY REGION BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WL PLACE OUR CWA WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 1 AND 3C.
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED 85H JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SFC COLD FRNT WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE SWEEPS ACRS OUR REGION ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH
CHC POPS AGAIN. LLVL CAA DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPS RETURNING
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUES INTO WEDS. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON WEDS
WITH INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIGHT
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW PRES WL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON
ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS FROM 18Z THRU 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CRNT RADAR
SHOWS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW RAPIDLY LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT
ATTM...AND WL IMPACT MPV/SLK SHORTLY AND PBG/BTV BY 1900Z. EXPECT
VIS BTWN 1/4SM AND 1/2SM IN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AND CIGS
RANGING BTWN OVERCAST 500 TO 1500 FEET. BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WL OCCUR THRU 04Z THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFT 08Z. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WL CONT OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS AT MPV/BTV WITH IFR CONDITIONS THRU 10Z THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 12Z THURSDAY. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING. AT MSS...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BTWN 00Z AND
04Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE CPV AND SLV.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR DEVELOPS WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR ACRS MOST OF OUR TAF SITES...EXCEPT AT SLK.
SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE NEXT WEAK
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ003>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ001-002.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ028-031-
     034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KOKX 261938
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 19Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A TRACK INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SE CT MAINLY RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ON THE WARMER
SIDE SINCE COLUMN COOLING VIA LATENT HEAT ABSORPTION OF MELTING
SNOW CANNOT TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WAS
MARKED EARLIER BY A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THUNDER-SNOW ACROSS
NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NYC...AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE
BURBS JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE NJ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY NORTH OF I-287...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND QPF TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER...BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12 INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO
THE SOUTH RIDES UP INTO THESE AREAS FROM SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK
COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES SE OF MONTAUK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH A LINGERING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF
HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.

COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME
LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN
WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A
BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING
THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. KSWF ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST...MAINLY
A WINTRY MIX OVERALL. GUSTY NE FLOW BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS
EVE. THE WINTRY MIX FORECAST AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTS OF RA/SN/PL.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...4-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON. SEE DETAILS IN COMMENTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 4-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM
AROUND 950 MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...EXPECT A PF OF
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE
OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
PRESENT ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN
END.

SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AF OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON
EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASHOVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261938
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 19Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A TRACK INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SE CT MAINLY RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ON THE WARMER
SIDE SINCE COLUMN COOLING VIA LATENT HEAT ABSORPTION OF MELTING
SNOW CANNOT TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WAS
MARKED EARLIER BY A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THUNDER-SNOW ACROSS
NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NYC...AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE
BURBS JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE NJ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY NORTH OF I-287...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND QPF TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER...BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12 INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO
THE SOUTH RIDES UP INTO THESE AREAS FROM SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK
COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES SE OF MONTAUK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH A LINGERING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF
HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.

COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME
LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN
WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A
BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING
THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. KSWF ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST...MAINLY
A WINTRY MIX OVERALL. GUSTY NE FLOW BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS
EVE. THE WINTRY MIX FORECAST AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTS OF RA/SN/PL.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...4-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON. SEE DETAILS IN COMMENTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 4-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM
AROUND 950 MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...EXPECT A PF OF
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE
OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
PRESENT ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN
END.

SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AF OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON
EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASHOVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261938
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 19Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A TRACK INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SE CT MAINLY RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ON THE WARMER
SIDE SINCE COLUMN COOLING VIA LATENT HEAT ABSORPTION OF MELTING
SNOW CANNOT TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WAS
MARKED EARLIER BY A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THUNDER-SNOW ACROSS
NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NYC...AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE
BURBS JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE NJ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY NORTH OF I-287...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND QPF TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER...BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12 INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO
THE SOUTH RIDES UP INTO THESE AREAS FROM SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK
COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES SE OF MONTAUK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH A LINGERING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF
HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.

COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME
LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN
WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A
BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING
THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. KSWF ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST...MAINLY
A WINTRY MIX OVERALL. GUSTY NE FLOW BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS
EVE. THE WINTRY MIX FORECAST AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTS OF RA/SN/PL.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...4-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON. SEE DETAILS IN COMMENTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 4-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM
AROUND 950 MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...EXPECT A PF OF
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE
OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
PRESENT ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN
END.

SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AF OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON
EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASHOVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261938
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 19Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A TRACK INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SE CT MAINLY RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ON THE WARMER
SIDE SINCE COLUMN COOLING VIA LATENT HEAT ABSORPTION OF MELTING
SNOW CANNOT TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WAS
MARKED EARLIER BY A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THUNDER-SNOW ACROSS
NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NYC...AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE
BURBS JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE NJ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY NORTH OF I-287...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND QPF TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER...BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12 INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO
THE SOUTH RIDES UP INTO THESE AREAS FROM SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK
COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES SE OF MONTAUK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH A LINGERING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF
HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.

COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME
LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN
WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A
BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING
THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. KSWF ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST...MAINLY
A WINTRY MIX OVERALL. GUSTY NE FLOW BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS
EVE. THE WINTRY MIX FORECAST AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTS OF RA/SN/PL.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...4-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON. SEE DETAILS IN COMMENTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 4-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM
AROUND 950 MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...EXPECT A PF OF
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE
OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
PRESENT ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN
END.

SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AF OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON
EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE
SHOULD KEEP DEPARTURES BELOW THE 2 FT NEEDED TO CAUSE MINOR
INUNDATION OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

2 TO 4 FT SURF ALONG THE NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LI SOUND AND
THE TWIN FORKS COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED
SPLASHOVERS ONTO THE MOST VULNERABLE OF SHORELINE ROADS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261935
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS. THURSDAY TO SATURDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`VE MADE SLGT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL
TOTALS ATTM...AS IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND
INCOMING MODEL DATA THAT CSI POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD IN A SW-NE
SWATH ACRS ERN PA INTO S-CNTRL/SERN NY...EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND AS NEAR
OR JUST E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. JUST HOW FAR N/W THE MID-LVL DRY
SLOT IS ABLE TO ADVANCE...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE 700 MB LOW
CLOSES OFF...WILL BE CRITICAL IN THIS REGARD.

BROOME/CHENANGO CNTYS WERE ADDED TO THE WRNG (STORM TOTALS UP TO
6-10"...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIER)...AND CHEMUNG...TOMPKINS...SRN
CAYUGA...ONONDAGA...AND NRN ONEIDA WERE ADDED TO THE ADVSY
LISTING.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR/SAT TRENDS...AND THE REST OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE CLOSELY...TO SEE IF ANY ADDTNL CHGS ARE REQUIRED
THROUGH THE AFTN.

PREV DISC... 4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS. FOR
THE CWA THIS COASTAL STORM WILL GIVE THE AREA ALL SNOW. QPF AROUND
AN INCH IN THE FAR EAST AND SE. THIS WILL GIVE THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. THE NAM SPREADS MORE SNOW FURTHER WEST. UPPED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. THIS PUT OTSEGO IN A
WARNING. ALSO SRN ONEIDA, MADISON AND CORTLAND EDGED UP TO AN
ADVISORY. TOUGH PART IS THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MORE THAN 12
HOURS OF STEADY SNOW.

BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL BE SE OF AVP BGM AND ONEONTA. DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AND LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITE ZONE. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. FGEN FORCING IN
THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. SNOW WILL START BETWEEN 7 AND NOON. MID
CLOUDS TO THE SE WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE CREATING A SEEDER FEEDER EVENT. THIS WILL CREATE A QUICK
ONSET FROM S TO N.

SNOW MOVES OUT FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT BUT LINGERS OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF FORCING GONE AND MOISTURE PULLING
OUT. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

AS THE STORM QUICKLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC A NW FLOW SETS UP WITH CAA. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING THU AND THU NGT. LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY CAA CONTINUES WITH LAKE EFFECT AND LL NW
FLOW. MULTIBANDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NY.

A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL NOSE IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT THE WIND ENDING THE LES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE FRI NGT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL FROM NEAR KBGM EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KBGM AND KAVP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH WE DON`T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE ABOVE IFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KELM AND KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261935
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS. THURSDAY TO SATURDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`VE MADE SLGT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL
TOTALS ATTM...AS IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND
INCOMING MODEL DATA THAT CSI POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD IN A SW-NE
SWATH ACRS ERN PA INTO S-CNTRL/SERN NY...EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND AS NEAR
OR JUST E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. JUST HOW FAR N/W THE MID-LVL DRY
SLOT IS ABLE TO ADVANCE...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE 700 MB LOW
CLOSES OFF...WILL BE CRITICAL IN THIS REGARD.

BROOME/CHENANGO CNTYS WERE ADDED TO THE WRNG (STORM TOTALS UP TO
6-10"...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIER)...AND CHEMUNG...TOMPKINS...SRN
CAYUGA...ONONDAGA...AND NRN ONEIDA WERE ADDED TO THE ADVSY
LISTING.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR/SAT TRENDS...AND THE REST OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE CLOSELY...TO SEE IF ANY ADDTNL CHGS ARE REQUIRED
THROUGH THE AFTN.

PREV DISC... 4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS. FOR
THE CWA THIS COASTAL STORM WILL GIVE THE AREA ALL SNOW. QPF AROUND
AN INCH IN THE FAR EAST AND SE. THIS WILL GIVE THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. THE NAM SPREADS MORE SNOW FURTHER WEST. UPPED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. THIS PUT OTSEGO IN A
WARNING. ALSO SRN ONEIDA, MADISON AND CORTLAND EDGED UP TO AN
ADVISORY. TOUGH PART IS THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MORE THAN 12
HOURS OF STEADY SNOW.

BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL BE SE OF AVP BGM AND ONEONTA. DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AND LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITE ZONE. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. FGEN FORCING IN
THE LOW LEVELS TODAY. SNOW WILL START BETWEEN 7 AND NOON. MID
CLOUDS TO THE SE WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING OVER THE LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE CREATING A SEEDER FEEDER EVENT. THIS WILL CREATE A QUICK
ONSET FROM S TO N.

SNOW MOVES OUT FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT BUT LINGERS OVER THE ERN
COUNTIES. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF FORCING GONE AND MOISTURE PULLING
OUT. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT IN THE NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

AS THE STORM QUICKLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC A NW FLOW SETS UP WITH CAA. WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING THU AND THU NGT. LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY CAA CONTINUES WITH LAKE EFFECT AND LL NW
FLOW. MULTIBANDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NY.

A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL NOSE IN LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIGHTEN AND
SHIFT THE WIND ENDING THE LES. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
LATE FRI NGT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND FALL FROM NEAR KBGM EXTENDING EAST AND
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, VISIBILITIES BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR KBGM AND KAVP AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH WE DON`T EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE ABOVE IFR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KELM AND KAVP.

OUTLOOK...

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     056-057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044-055.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...PCF








000
FXUS61 KOKX 261929
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
229 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 19Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A TRACK INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SE CT MAINLY RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ON THE WARMER
SIDE SINCE COLUMN COOLING VIA LATENT HEAT ABSORPTION OF MELTING
SNOW CANNOT TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WAS
MARKED EARLIER BY A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THUNDER-SNOW ACROSS
NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NYC...AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE
BURBS JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE NJ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY NORTH OF I-287...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND QPF TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER...BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12 INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO
THE SOUTH RIDES UP INTO THESE AREAS FROM SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK
COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES SE OF MONTAUK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH A LINGERING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF
HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.

COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME
LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN
WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A
BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING
THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. KSWF ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST...MAINLY
A WINTRY MIX OVERALL. GUSTY NE FLOW BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS
EVE. THE WINTRY MIX FORECAST AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTS OF RA/SN/PL.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...4-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON. SEE DETAILS IN COMMENTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 4-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM
AROUND 950 MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...EXPECT A PF OF
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE
OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
PRESENT ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN
END.

SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AF OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON
EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FORECAST OF STRONGER NE WINDS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...SHOULD PUSH A BIT MORE WATER INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 2 FT
ARE NEEDED THERE TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS IN
WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 2 FT EXPECTED. THE INCREASED NE FLOW OVER THE
EAST END OF LONG ISLAND ALSO COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION
ON THE TWIN FORKS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM






000
FXUS61 KOKX 261929
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
229 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THE MORNING OF THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY....FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL INTO
TONIGHT...

AT 19Z THE SFC LOW WAS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST...WITH LATEST 3-HRLY
PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING A TRACK INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT AT 650-800 MB ARE KEEPING PRIMARY P-TYPE ACROSS LONG
ISLAND SE CT MAINLY RAIN...WITH OCNL SLEET IN BANDS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP...WHICH IS ALSO KEEPING SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ON THE WARMER
SIDE SINCE COLUMN COOLING VIA LATENT HEAT ABSORPTION OF MELTING
SNOW CANNOT TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WAS
MARKED EARLIER BY A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THUNDER-SNOW ACROSS
NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
BACK TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF NYC...AND MIXED PRECIP IN THE
BURBS JUST TO THE NORTH/WEST. ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL
SNOW ARE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NE NJ...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY NORTH OF I-287...AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT...WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. WITH SOME SPOTTERS ALREADY HAVING REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND QPF TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER...BUMPED UP
SNOWFALL AMTS TO 8-12 INCHES WELL INLAND AS ADDITIONAL BANDING TO
THE SOUTH RIDES UP INTO THESE AREAS FROM SE PA AND CENTRAL NJ.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

THE CLOSENESS OF THE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH A 45-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE
CT...A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR S NEW LONDON AND E SUFFOLK
COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED...PEAKING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES SE OF MONTAUK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF COASTAL AREAS GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...WITH A LINGERING SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER
ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ALL CONTROLLED BY THE VORTEX SPINNING JUST N OF
HUDSON BAY. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND WITH AMPLIFICATION BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

NOT TOO MUCH TO BE CONCERNED WITH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY...ALTHOUGH WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS/LOWS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.

COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES THU NIGHT AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH ON SAT...AND MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING SOME
LIFT QPF WITH ITS PASSAGE SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE`LL REMAIN WARM SECTORED INTO SUN
WITH WAA ENSUING. WARMER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL SAT...THEN NEAR
NORMAL SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MON...AND TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS ARE NOW A
BIT WETTER...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z EC...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE
POPS. TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FROPA ALSO IS APPARENT...THE GFS/CMC
A BIT FASTER THAN THE EC. THE BIG CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS RUNS IS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLES BUILDING HIGH PRES IN FROM THE N QUICKER...SUPPRESSING
THE FRONT WELL TO THE S WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING***

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY IFR/LIFR WITH A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN
RA/SN/PL. KSWF ALL SN...CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS WINTRY
MIX...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL SN LATE TODAY. TO THE EAST...MAINLY
A WINTRY MIX OVERALL. GUSTY NE FLOW BECOME NW LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE PL
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AT TIMES OUTSIDE WINDOW INDICATED IN TAF THIS
EVE. THE WINTRY MIX FORECAST AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTS OF RA/SN/PL.

MOST LIKELY RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-4 INCHES NYC METRO
TERMINALS...8-11 INCHES KSWF...4-6 KHPN...1-2 INCHES KBDR...1 INCH
OR LESS KISP/KGON. SEE DETAILS IN COMMENTS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS
21-03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 1-2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 2-4 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 3-5 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 4-6 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVE. STRONGEST WINDS 21-03Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SLEET POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME TODAY INTO EARLY
EVE. SLEET COULD LAST AN HOUR LATER THAN IN TAF. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS 23-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THU THROUGH MON...
.THU-THU NIGHT...POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR.
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...VFR WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES.
.SAT AFTERNOON-SUN...VFR.
.MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 35-50 KT OVER THE
WATERS FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING FORECAST FROM
AROUND 950 MB TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WATERS...EXPECT A PF OF
SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ON ALL OTHER WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES COULD LAST ON THE
OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET UNTIL 3 AM. SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
PRESENT ON ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONCE THE GALES COME TO AN
END.

SCA LEVEL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON
THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIMINISHING WINDS.

SCA SEAS POSSIBLY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THU NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ON FRI. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD COME CLOSE SUN/SUN
NIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SEAS COULD REACH MARGINAL LEVELS ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AF OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS
ROUGHLY W/N OF I-287...INCLUDING INTERIOR SW CT...LITTLE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON
EAST...RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FORECAST OF STRONGER NE WINDS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...SHOULD PUSH A BIT MORE WATER INTO WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 2 FT
ARE NEEDED THERE TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS IN
WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...WITH
CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 2 FT EXPECTED. THE INCREASED NE FLOW OVER THE
EAST END OF LONG ISLAND ALSO COULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION
ON THE TWIN FORKS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007>010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ071>073-
     176.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ006-104-
     106>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 261755
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FRESH COATING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS FOUND JUST TO THE
EAST OF SE VIRGINIA. THIS LOW IS SPREADING PRECIPITATION INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A LIGHT GENERAL SNOWFALL NOW REACHING OUR
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HAVE BUMPED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY MAY NEAR 4 INCHES
FROM THIS STORM BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THE DETAILS...DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS
COASTAL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTING OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-3" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 4" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION FROM THE COASTAL LOW. THIS SNOW IS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO IFR RANGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS FOUND ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
SNOW. FOR THE AIRFIELDS EXPECT A REDUCTION TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR WHERE THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
BACKING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINING 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERAL DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 261755
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FRESH COATING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
TO SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE AND FINGER LAKES
REGION. THIS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED ACTIVITY WILL LINGERING
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW IS FOUND JUST TO THE
EAST OF SE VIRGINIA. THIS LOW IS SPREADING PRECIPITATION INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A LIGHT GENERAL SNOWFALL NOW REACHING OUR
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HAVE BUMPED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UP AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY MAY NEAR 4 INCHES
FROM THIS STORM BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS.

FOR THE DETAILS...DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS
COASTAL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
EVENING...THEN LIFTING OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-3" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 4" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION FROM THE COASTAL LOW. THIS SNOW IS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO IFR RANGE...WITH MVFR VSBYS FOUND ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
SNOW. FOR THE AIRFIELDS EXPECT A REDUCTION TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR WHERE THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
BACKING AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY. EXPECT VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINING 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERAL DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBGM 261753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE CATSKILLS. THURSDAY TO SATURDAY
WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... WE`VE MADE SLGT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL
TOTALS ATTM...AS IT APPEARS FROM THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND
INCOMING MODEL DATA THAT CSI POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD IN A SW-NE
SWATH ACRS ERN PA INTO S-CNTRL/SERN NY...EXTENDING AS FAR INLAND AS NEAR
OR JUST E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. JUST HOW FAR N/W THE MID-LVL DRY
SLOT IS ABLE TO ADVANCE...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE 700 MB LOW
CLOSES OFF...WILL BE CRITICAL IN THIS REGARD.

BROOME/CHENANGO CNTYS WERE ADDED TO THE WRNG (STORM TOTALS UP TO
6-10"...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIER)...AND CHEMUNG...TOMPKINS...SRN
CAYUGA...ONONDAGA...AND NRN ONEIDA WERE ADDED TO THE ADVSY
LISTING.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO WATCH RADAR/SAT TRENDS...AND THE REST OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE CLOSELY...TO SEE IF ANY ADDTNL CHGS ARE REQUIRED
THROUGH THE AFTN.

PREV DISC... 4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON QPF AMOUNTS. FOR
THE CWA THIS COASTAL STORM WILL GIVE THE AREA ALL SNOW. QPF AROUND
AN INCH IN THE FAR EAST AND SE. THIS WILL GIVE THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. THE NAM SPREADS MORE SNOW FURTHER WEST. UPPED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN ZONES. THIS PUT OTSEGO IN A
WARNING. ALSO SRN ONEIDA, MADISON AND CORTLAND EDGED UP TO AN
ADVISORY. TOUGH PART IS THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MORE THAN 12
HOURS OF STEADY SNOW.

BEST FORCING AND LIFT WILL BE SE OF AVP BGM AND ONEONTA. DEEP
SATURATED L