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000
FXUS61 KBGM 011049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011049
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH 14-16Z. THE WORST CONDS (IFR/LIFR) WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT
KELM WITH DENSE VLY FOG...BUT OCNL IFR COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT KBGM
AND KITH. CIG BASES/RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT WITH TIME LTR
THIS MRNG...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL LTR THIS AFTN IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT
STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL
CONTINUE NOT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

BLYR FLOW APPEARS TO BE A BIT STGR TNT...SO AT LEAST THE EXTENT OF
FOG DVLPMT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS. HOWEVER...WE FEEL KELM COULD
STILL EXPERIENCE SOME FOG RIGHT TWDS DAYBREAK...SO WE INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR AT THIS SITE AFTER 08Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP





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000
FXUS61 KALY 011046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...ONE MORE UPDATE AS RADAR NOW INDICATED SOME WEAK
RETURNS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF ALBANY.
SUSPECT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF DRIZZLE OVER THE HILLTOWNS AND
EVEN A LITTLE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS. WE INCLUDED DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH THE FOG (MORE EXTENSIVE HIGHER TERRAIN) UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 011045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 639 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR SHERBROOKE QUEBEC AT 1040Z WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS
GENERALLY SHIFTED EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE AT THIS POINT...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY. SOME BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE OVERCAST...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEADING TO PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. VERY HUMID AIR MASS
DID LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND THAT
FOG WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY 12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS +15C TO
+16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR THIS LABOR DAY.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW
5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW






000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS
REGARDING THE FOG.

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY
AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.









000
FXUS61 KALY 011005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


CORRECTED CAPE VALUE IN THE THIRD PARAGRAPH OF THE NEAR
TERM...SHOULD BE 1500 J/KG.









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 010851
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID LABOR DAY WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS EXPANDING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THERE IS SOME PATCHY
FOG AS WELL...BUT LOW LEVEL PROFILES SEEM TO SUPPORT STRATUS OVER
FOG WITH SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO
LAST INTO MID MORNING IN MANY AREAS BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE ONSET
OF DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING. THE INVERSION IS WEAK...SO THE STRATUS
LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS CLEARING MID
MORNING AND HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.

OUR REGION WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINING
WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING JUST
A VERY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CROSSING WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE...SEPARATING ENHANCED FLOW CHANNELING DOWN THE LAKE AND WEAKER
WINDS INLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1500J/KG
OF SBCAPE...ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME CINH IN THE
PROFILE. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY ORGANIZE LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO BREACH THE MID LEVEL CAP. WITH THIS IN MIND
HAVE DRAWN A CORRIDOR OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO THE ROCHESTER AREA. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE BUFFALO AREA...WITH A SSW FLOW
OFF THE LAKE LIKELY KEEPING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER DRY. FARTHER EAST THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
LESS INSTABILITY AND NO TRIGGER.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY...AND AROUND 80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS EVENING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NY LATE...WITH A LEAD CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE TONIGHT...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY
RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES
AROUND -3C...OR EVEN A BIT LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-35KT...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS I`D
LIKE TO SEE FOR BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL. KEY FACTOR WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL
CLOUD COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THIS
MAY BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...TALL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOWN IN BUFKIT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE MAY SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE
WISE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BOTH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG. IFR CIGS ARE ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM KBUF AND
KIAG TO KROC SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z-14Z.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09Z THEN MAY
PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS FOG GOES...EXPECT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO PRIMARILY
SEE JUST LIGHT BR WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG WHERE THE LOW
STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLTOPS.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TODAY WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS AND WAVES JUST SHY OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN
TO LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010851
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
451 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID LABOR DAY WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW STRATUS EXPANDING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THERE IS SOME PATCHY
FOG AS WELL...BUT LOW LEVEL PROFILES SEEM TO SUPPORT STRATUS OVER
FOG WITH SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO
LAST INTO MID MORNING IN MANY AREAS BEFORE MIXING OUT WITH THE ONSET
OF DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING. THE INVERSION IS WEAK...SO THE STRATUS
LAYER SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS CLEARING MID
MORNING AND HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.

OUR REGION WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINING
WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING JUST
A VERY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CROSSING WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE
ERIE...SEPARATING ENHANCED FLOW CHANNELING DOWN THE LAKE AND WEAKER
WINDS INLAND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1500J/KG
OF SBCAPE...ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVELS MAY KEEP SOME CINH IN THE
PROFILE. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY ORGANIZE LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ENOUGH TO BREACH THE MID LEVEL CAP. WITH THIS IN MIND
HAVE DRAWN A CORRIDOR OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEAST TO THE ROCHESTER AREA. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE BUFFALO AREA...WITH A SSW FLOW
OFF THE LAKE LIKELY KEEPING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER DRY. FARTHER EAST THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
LESS INSTABILITY AND NO TRIGGER.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY...AND AROUND 80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THIS EVENING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NY LATE...WITH A LEAD CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE. DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE TONIGHT...AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90+ KNOT
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALL PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS AND AN INCREASING SSW GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...REACHING NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH WITH FORECAST SBCAPES GENERALLY
RUNNING BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES
AROUND -3C...OR EVEN A BIT LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-35KT...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS I`D
LIKE TO SEE FOR BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL. KEY FACTOR WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING THAT TAKES PLACE BEFORE FROPA...I.E. WILL
CLOUD COVER MOVE IN TOO EARLY AND LIMIT HEATING...AND THUS THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING THE MOST SUNSHINE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THIS
MAY BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...TALL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SHOWN IN BUFKIT AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OFFERS THE RISK FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. ALL THESE FACTORS TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION...IT APPEARS THERE MAY SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY STARTS TO BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRIER MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE
WISE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BOTH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG. IFR CIGS ARE ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM KBUF AND
KIAG TO KROC SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z-14Z.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09Z THEN MAY
PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS FOG GOES...EXPECT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO PRIMARILY
SEE JUST LIGHT BR WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG WHERE THE LOW
STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLTOPS.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TODAY WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT
LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS AND WAVES JUST SHY OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN
TO LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 010849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTION OF ANY TYPE OVER
THE REGION. IT WAS VERY MUGGY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...DECIDED TO CALL IT AREAS OF FOG
IN MANY PLACES...PATCHY OTHERS.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 70 IN MOST PLACES...QUITE UNTYPICALLY
WARM FOR THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN. DEWPOINTS WERE
SIMILAR ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CONDENSATION AND THE FOG.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE. THE FOG WILL
SLOWLY BURN OFF WELL AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT HAPPENS...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (MORE SUNSHINE ALBANY
NORTHWARD).

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A
LITTLE DRIER.

IT WILL BE A WARM ONE THIS LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE (A COMBINATION OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY) WILL APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS.

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER LONG ISLAND AND NYC...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF
IT WILL PUSH E OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A VERY
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER...SO EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTMS THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS (LOW CHC
ON LI) IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH ALOFT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED BREAKS
OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INTO THE 80S WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND 17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED WED-FRI UNDER
SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK A FEW
DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING HEIGHTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY WEEKS
END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TODAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...KEEPING THE TERMINALS MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING. THERE MAY
HOWEVER BE A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POP UP.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS BY 16Z.
STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET HAVE LIKELY DROPPED BELOW SCA
LEVELS...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVSY THERE. EAST OF HERE
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO TIMING OF HEADLINES...ALTHOUGH HAVE CONVERTED THE
GENERIC SCA TO AN SCAHZ SINCE GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010821
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS ONE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS THIS MORNING...ANOTHER WILL DEVELOP
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER LONG ISLAND AND NYC...CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE LAST OF
IT WILL PUSH E OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A VERY
HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER...SO EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTMS THIS MORNING...HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS (LOW CHC
ON LI) IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH ALOFT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED BREAKS
OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INTO THE 80S WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND 17C. THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE FORECAST IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT PULSE STORMS THIS AFTN. COULD BE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE. MORE IMPORTANTLY...PWATS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO AN ISOLD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT REMAINS...MAINLY IN URBANIZED AREAS. NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH HOWEVER.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...DUE TO COMBINED 3
TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS DIMINISH AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT MOVE EAST.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE WITH H85 TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND 17-18C AND MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W...BUT WE SHOULD STILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PCPN CHANCES DISSIPATE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. GENERAL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BETWEEN 00-06Z. ALOFT...THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. AS
SUCH...WILL CAP POPS AT HIGHER END CHC THROUGH 03Z OVER AREAS
NORTH/WEST NYC METRO...THEN TAPER OFF WITH ALL AREAS BCMG DRY BY
06Z. LINGERING INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SEE AN ISO TSTM
STILL PSBL TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE WHILE A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD
BRIEFLY ALOFT.

BY WEDNESDAY SEEING DRYING CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH DEEPENS AND RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. NO PCPN EXPECTED WED-FRI UNDER
SUCH A PATTERN. A QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK A FEW
DEGREES...THOUGH STILL REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. RISING HEIGHTS
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL INCREASE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BY WEEKS
END...ESP WITH A STRONGER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

00Z GFS/CMC BEGIN APPROACHING THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
IT THROUGH BY SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. QUESTION REMAINS TO
WHAT EXTENT THE RIDGE BUILDS...WITH THE GFS/CMC ACTUALLY SIDING
CLOSER TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
RIDGE WHICH IN TURN TAKE LONGER TO WEAKEN. FOR NOW...SIDED MORE
WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TIMING...THOUGH EVEN THAT COULD BE A BIT
SLOW AND RIDGING OVERDONE...WITH A GOOD COMPROMISE BEING SWINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY TOPPED
POPS AT CHC DURING THE DAY SAT...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE FRONT LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THE ECMWF EVEN ON INTO MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW BY SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE TROUGH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TODAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...KEEPING THE TERMINALS MOSTLY DRY THIS MORNING. THERE MAY
HOWEVER BE A FEW STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POP UP.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS BY 16Z.
STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY THE NYC METRO AND
INTERIOR TERMINALS.

THE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
DURING THE DAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET HAVE LIKELY DROPPED BELOW SCA
LEVELS...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVSY THERE. EAST OF HERE
SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. NO
CHANGES TO TIMING OF HEADLINES...ALTHOUGH HAVE CONVERTED THE
GENERIC SCA TO AN SCAHZ SINCE GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
REACH 25 KT.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUES EVENING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS REACHING 25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
WAVES/SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS...THOUGH AT
THE MOMENT EXPECTING SEA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SUB-SCA. WAVEWATCH WAS
QUICK TO BUILD THE SEAS...SIDING WITH THE QUICKER GFS SOLUTION...SO
DROPPED GUIDANCE AROUND 1 FT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT TO REFLECT A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1/4 INCH TODAY.
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE
WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AND SOME AREAS
THAT COULD SEE OVER AN INCH.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLD FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH A WATER
LOADED ATMOSPHERE.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED WED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL QUEBEC AT 0730Z WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH 12Z.
JUST A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT THROUGH 12Z OR
SO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE. ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED
LEADING TO PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG THAT WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY
12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COMBINED WITH
850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN
PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY...LABOR DAY...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A MODERATELY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL QUEBEC AT 0730Z WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY EWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER THROUGH 12Z.
JUST A FEW ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VT THROUGH 12Z OR
SO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
LONGITUDE. ELSEWHERE...SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAVE DEVELOPED
LEADING TO PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG THAT WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY
12-1230Z.

THE UPPER LOW ISN/T ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE.
THUS...THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPR 60S AREAWIDE WILL REMAIN. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TODAY FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED AND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. COMBINED WITH
850MB TEMPS +15C TO +16C...WILL FEEL LIKE MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER NAM-MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN
PLACE...GENERALLY S-SW 5-8 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO SERN ONTARIO AFTER 06Z. SHOULD BE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL FOR OUR AREA...ALBEIT MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. SHOULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING S-SW WINDS OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHELTERED SPOTS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM...AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS EAST
OF THE GREENS. INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. BTV-4KM AND
BTV-12KM WRF RUNS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
CHAMPLAIN VLY WWD...AND WILL INCLUDE 20-30 POPS TO COVER THIS PROSPECT
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH PREVAILING
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS (UPR 60S DEWPOINTS). 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO
+18C BY 00Z GFS AND NAM...THOUGH MODELS NOW SHOW A BIT MORE MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS MAY HOLD BACK INSTABILITY A BIT...THOUGH WE SHOULD
STILL SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WARMEST ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS). INSTABILITY IS A BIT LESS THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...WITH SBCAPE LIKELY 500-1000 J/KG PER
GFS/NAM BETWEEN 18-21Z TUESDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS
MODERATELY STRONG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS
EXPECTED. GIVEN STRONG FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONT...ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING IN NRN NY BETWEEN 16-18Z
BEFORE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS VT 18-00Z. NOT SURE ABOUT SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY
AROUND 6C/KM. THAT SAID...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN PW VALUES 1.80 TO 2.00".

COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH VT 00-03Z WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS THRU
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT BEFORE ACTIVITY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00-01Z. GRADIENT WINDS AND MODEST CAA
LIKELY LIMIT FOG FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD SET UP A NICE DAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
VARIABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE 2-M DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS WELL...GENERALLY
MID-UPR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM EDT MONDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010653
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE QUICK
HITTING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BREAK
IN THE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 AM UPDATE...
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SOUPY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN. HV ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO GRIDS BTWN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT WITH MINS EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE M/U 60S AND DWPTS
RMNG ABOUT THE SAME. THINK THAT ANY SCTD CONVECTION WL DISSIPATE
AFT 03Z TONIGHT AS HTG WANES AND WILL SIDE TWD NO PCPN FOR TONIGHT
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK AS TROF APPCHS FM THE WEST AND UPGLIDE
BEGINS TO INCRS ACRS WRN ZONES TWD DAYBREAK. WITH GOM OPENING BACK
UP AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND PW VALUES INCRSG TO 1.50 INCHES THRU 12Z
FEEL SLGT CHC POPS WARRANTED.

FRONT WILL MV THRU FA BY TUE EVNG. AHD OF FRONT ATMOSPHERE WL BCM
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES POSSIBLY APPCH 1000 J/KG DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS. EXPECT EARLY MRNG TO SEE PATCHY FOG DISSIPATE BY 14Z, WITH
SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR CWA IN SATURATED AIRMASS. AFT 16Z,
EXPECT IMPACT FM FRONTAL BNDRY TO BE FELT IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
CONVECTION MVG IN FM THE NW. TSTMS WL BE SUPPORTED BY RRQ OF UL JET
STREAK ROTATING ARND BASE OF TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM OR TWO TUE AFTN
AS CDFNT IMPACTS AREA DRG PRIME DIURNAL HTG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES RANGING FM 35-40KTS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AHD OF FNT WL WARM TO
NR 80 ACRS THE FINGER LKS WHERE TEMPS WL LKLY BE HELD DOWN BY CLDS
AND M/U 80S OVR FAR SE CNTYS.

FROPA OCCURS THRU ENTIRE CWA AT 00Z WITH LINGERING POPS OVRNGT.
THUNDER CHCS LOOK TO DIMINISH AFT 03Z AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS WORKING SEWD THRU 06Z.
PRTLY-MOCLDY SKIES EXPECTED THRU 12Z WED WITH DWPTS AND TEMPS VRY
SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE LWR 60S BY MRNG ON NW FLOW.

SFC HIPRES ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW WL BE IN PLACE DRG THE DAY WED WITH
A FULL DAY OF DRYING EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AND A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WITH DWPTS
ONLY IN THE 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME THRU END OF SHORT TERM. ALOFT
EXPECT JUST FLAT ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE. APPEARS TO BE A PERFECT
NIGHT FOR RADNL VLY FOG WED NGT BUT TOO FAR OUT TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS












000
FXUS61 KALY 010625
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS













000
FXUS61 KBUF 010548
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
148 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SHOWERS JUST NOW EXITING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY.

A MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD...AND LIKELY MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AS WE COOL SOME THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
LOWER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL CUT BACK SOME ON THE FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF FOG PRODUCTION...AND WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED.

WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE STILL COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BOTH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG. IFR CIGS ARE ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM KBUF AND
KIAG TO KROC SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z-14Z.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09Z THEN MAY
PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS FOG GOES...EXPECT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO PRIMARILY
SEE JUST LIGHT BR WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG WHERE THE LOW
STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLTOPS.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY ACROSS
THE LAKES AND RIVERS AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...SUCH THAT SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 010548
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
148 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SHOWERS JUST NOW EXITING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY.

A MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD...AND LIKELY MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AS WE COOL SOME THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
LOWER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL CUT BACK SOME ON THE FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF FOG PRODUCTION...AND WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED.

WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE STILL COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG AND STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BOTH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG. IFR CIGS ARE ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM KBUF AND
KIAG TO KROC SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z-14Z.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09Z THEN MAY
PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS FOG GOES...EXPECT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO PRIMARILY
SEE JUST LIGHT BR WITH A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR FOG WHERE THE LOW
STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLTOPS.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY ACROSS
THE LAKES AND RIVERS AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...SUCH THAT SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 010539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND
STRONG. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS
WERE TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR
HWO...THOUGH KEEP PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S)
UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUILDING HEIGHTS WITH SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST OR DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 13Z WITH MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES. AFTER 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010538
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010538
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MON UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
EARLY THIS MRNG. IFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT AT
KELM/KBGM/KITH...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS ALSO PSBL AT KRME/KSYR/KAVP IN
THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. FM 13-16Z...CIG BASES SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...WITH VFR FORESEEN AREA-WIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

ISOLD TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE...THUS WE`LL CONTINUE NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TERMINALS ATTM.

ALTHOUGH IT`S CERTAINLY PSBL THAT SOME FOG/HZ COULD DVLP AGN LTR
THIS EVE...FOR NOW WE`LL KEEP THINGS VFR THROUGH 06Z TUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY
KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY
KISP BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA
INTO LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS
BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY
KISP BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA
INTO LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS
BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY
KISP BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA
INTO LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS
BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
TODAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY
KISP BEFORE DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA
INTO LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT NYC/NJ TERMINALS
BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC/NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010510
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010510
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
110 AM UPDATE...
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THIS MRNG ACRS SERN ZONES AS A
SUBTLE S/WV RIDES UP IN SWRLY FLOW. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE ARND CWA-WIDE THRU 14Z THIS MRNG. LATEST
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PINPRICKS DVLPNG AFT 15Z ACRS SERN
ZONES IN AREA OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT. NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW FAR NW THIS
CONVECTION WL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO CWA AS NAM IS SUGGESTING WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT ARND 600MB. HRRR, HIRES ARW AND LOCAL WRF KEEP RMNDR OF
CWA FREE OF CONVECTION THRU 00Z TONIGHT. THEREFORE HV CONFINED SCTD
THUNDER CHCS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ONEONTA-BINGHAMTON-
TOWANDA LINE FOR TDA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM ELSEWHERE BUT DO
NOT THINK IT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO PUT A DAMPER ON ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

BIG STORY WL BE THE HUMID TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PSUNNY CONDITIONS TO
PROGRESS FM NORTH TO SOUTH IN AREA OF BRIEF HIPRES, BOTH AT THE SFC
AND ALOFT, WHICH WL RESULT IN VRY SOUPY AIRMASS THIS AFTN. H8 TEMPS
WL WARM TO NR +18C YIELDING MAXES IN THE L/M 80S. THESE TEMPS
COUPLED WITH DWPT TEMPS IN THE U60S WL RESULT IN A SULTRY AIRMASS
THIS AFTN WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO FIND MUCH RELIEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010508
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT MONDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SLIDING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
REMAINING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FRANKLIN/CLINTON NY COUNTIES AT
05Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 30-40 POPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SOUTH OF
A BTV-1V4 LINE. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HRS...AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA AS
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE AS A RESULT OF THE HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH LOWS NEAR 70F AT BTV AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS S-SW 5-8 MPH WILL
GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW








000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION).

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









000
FXUS61 KBGM 010359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HV OPTED TO LWR POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT. WK WV LOCATED
OVR SEPA MAY SPREAD AN ISOLD SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES INTO NEPA
TONIGHT. THUS HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC ACRS FAR SE ZONES WITH AREAS
OF FOG EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURRING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPMNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010359
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HV OPTED TO LWR POPS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE OVRNGT. WK WV LOCATED
OVR SEPA MAY SPREAD AN ISOLD SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLES INTO NEPA
TONIGHT. THUS HV MAINTAINED SLGT CHC ACRS FAR SE ZONES WITH AREAS
OF FOG EXPECTED CWA-WIDE. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURRING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPMNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MID MORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KAH/PVN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBUF 010246
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1046 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SHOWERS JUST NOW EXITING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DRY.

A MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD...AND LIKELY MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AS WE COOL SOME THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
LOWER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL CUT BACK SOME ON THE FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF FOG PRODUCTION...AND WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED.

WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE STILL COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND LIKELY LOWER TO IFR/ LOW END MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WHILE LIKELY NOT AS RESTRICTIVE AS THE CIGS WILL LOWER
TO IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE MVFR/ISOLATED IFR VSBYS WILL BE
FOUND ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...LIKELY
BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z WE SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITHIN A STILL HUMID AIRMASS.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY ACROSS
THE LAKES AND RIVERS AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...SUCH THAT SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 010239
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039...OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...OUR RADAR HAS NO ECHOES
AS PRECIPITATION IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST CONTINUING TO TAKE PLACE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEB CAMS AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WERE
ADDED TO THE GRIDS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BASED ON RADAR. NOT MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO CONT TO MENTION CHC
POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A POTSDAM TO PLATTSBURGH TO MORRISVILLE
LINE THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CRNT RADAR SHOWS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WL CONT TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.05 AND 0.15". OTHERWISE...STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER HERE OR THERE ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VT...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WL BE VERY LIMITED. GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC
DWPTS...EXPECT AREAS OF BR/FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS AFT MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WL SLOWLY FALL BACK INTO THE 60S WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW











000
FXUS61 KOKX 010153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SE TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY
ACROSS LI...FAR SE CT...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC
METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION AS AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE AXIS
TRAVERSES EASTWARD. ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
LESSER INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY...DUE TO
COMBINED 3 TO 5 FT SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES AND A BACKGROUND SE SWELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SE OF THE NYC
METRO AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY
FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THIS WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010012
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
812 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF
00Z MONDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS OF 00Z MONDAY...BUT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG AND MIST OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING ANY FOG OR MIST TO LIFT BY 14Z MONDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY SO LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO 5000 FEET...BUT STILL EXPECTING VFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...WGH/SLW







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
806 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EARLY EVENING DISPLAY THE AREA VIRTUALLY NOW
FREE OF RAIN. A SPOT SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER....WHILE THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE A PASSING
SHOWER AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE NEARS THE VALLEY
THIS EVENING.

A MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD...AND LIKELY MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS WE
COOL SOME THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LOWER WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CUT
BACK SOME ON THE FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THESE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG
PRODUCTION...AND WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE STILL COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND LIKELY LOWER TO IFR/ LOW END MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WHILE LIKELY NOT AS RESTRICTIVE AS THE CIGS WILL LOWER
TO IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE MVFR/ISOLATED IFR VSBYS WILL BE
FOUND ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...LIKELY
BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z WE SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITHIN A STILL HUMID AIRMASS.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY ACROSS
THE LAKES AND RIVERS AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...SUCH THAT SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
806 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EARLY EVENING DISPLAY THE AREA VIRTUALLY NOW
FREE OF RAIN. A SPOT SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER....WHILE THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE A PASSING
SHOWER AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE NEARS THE VALLEY
THIS EVENING.

A MEAN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD...AND LIKELY MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS. THIS MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS WE
COOL SOME THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LOWER WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL CUT
BACK SOME ON THE FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THESE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG
PRODUCTION...AND WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS OVERNIGHT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP TOO
MUCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE STILL COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME
PERIOD AND LIKELY LOWER TO IFR/ LOW END MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WHILE LIKELY NOT AS RESTRICTIVE AS THE CIGS WILL LOWER
TO IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE MVFR/ISOLATED IFR VSBYS WILL BE
FOUND ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY...LIKELY
BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z WE SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY BUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITHIN A STILL HUMID AIRMASS.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY ACROSS
THE LAKES AND RIVERS AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...SUCH THAT SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ERIE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBGM 010000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW WEAK LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS LEFT. CLOUDY SKIES ARE DOMINATING THE REGION. THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE FAR WESTERN BORDER OF NY.
SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WEAK MID LVL RIDGING
IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING A
POCKET OF DRY AIR. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT WE
STILL HAVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE
CWA.

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TONIGHT AS RAIN HAVE MOSTLY MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. ALSO DECIDED TO TAKE OUT
THE MENTION ON THUNDER... BELIEVE THE THREAT IS OVER. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND
HAS BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE
2NDRY WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON
MRNG. IT WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PUSHING OFF EASTERN LI/SE CT SHORTLY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT/NE NJ THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY ACROSS LI AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NYC METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION AS A
SHORTWAVE AXIS TRAVERSES EASTWARD.

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS COME TO AND END WITH EARLIER
CONVECTION AND NIGHTFALL STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A LOW
THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION LESSENING...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...JUST NW OF NYC AS OF 00Z...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SINK SE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD PASS SE
OF NYC TERMINALS BY AROUND 04-06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PUSHING OFF EASTERN LI/SE CT SHORTLY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT/NE NJ THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY ACROSS LI AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NYC METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION AS A
SHORTWAVE AXIS TRAVERSES EASTWARD.

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS COME TO AND END WITH EARLIER
CONVECTION AND NIGHTFALL STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A LOW
THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION LESSENING...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...JUST NW OF NYC AS OF 00Z...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SINK SE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD PASS SE
OF NYC TERMINALS BY AROUND 04-06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PUSHING OFF EASTERN LI/SE CT SHORTLY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT/NE NJ THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY ACROSS LI AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NYC METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION AS A
SHORTWAVE AXIS TRAVERSES EASTWARD.

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS COME TO AND END WITH EARLIER
CONVECTION AND NIGHTFALL STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A LOW
THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION LESSENING...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...JUST NW OF NYC AS OF 00Z...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SINK SE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD PASS SE
OF NYC TERMINALS BY AROUND 04-06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312359
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
759 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PUSHING OFF EASTERN LI/SE CT SHORTLY.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE FROM THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/SW CT/NE NJ THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SEMI- STATIONARY ACROSS LI AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NYC METRO OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCT CONVECTION AS A
SHORTWAVE AXIS TRAVERSES EASTWARD.

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS COME TO AND END WITH EARLIER
CONVECTION AND NIGHTFALL STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. ONLY A LOW
THREAT OF ANY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. WITH
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION LESSENING...MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW
FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...JUST NW OF NYC AS OF 00Z...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SINK SE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

MAIN AXIS FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ALONG THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD PASS SE
OF NYC TERMINALS BY AROUND 04-06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HANGS UP CLOSE TO KEWR/KJFK AND PARTICULARLY KISP BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHRA INTO LATE
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIRMASS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BY 16Z MON. STRATUS COULD HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN
TERMINALS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN MON
AFT/EVE...PARTICULARLY NYC METRO AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT S/SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT...MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

MAINLY A MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN MON AFT/EVE.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/NV







000
FXUS61 KBGM 312343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 312343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER WAVE OUTPACES
SURFACE FRONT. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR TSRA THIS EVENING...AND LAST
OF SCT SHRA WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS UPPER WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION AND NEVER
QUITE GET THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS
UPPER WAVE EXITS...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE TRAPPED
UNDER SUBTLE INVERSION...WITH NO PUSH OF DRIER AIR DUE TO LACK OF
PROGRESS OF SURFACE FRONT. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH...AND AMBIENT MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL TODAY...EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF FUEL ALT REQ MVFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INDEED...WORSE-THAN-IFR MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY KELM WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW THERE TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. WEAK FLOW MONDAY MORNING WILL MEAN SLOW PACE FOR
IMPROVEMENT DUE TO LACK OF MIXING . EXPECTING CIG TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MVFR INTO LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING OR
SCATTERING. WINDS LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN WSW 4-8 KTS
AFTER MIDMORNING MONDAY. A FEW SHRA- TSRA MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE TOWARDS KAVP...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE NOR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG MAINLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312322 CCA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNRISE ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

CORRECTED TYPO.








000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM...MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT...WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS STILL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. THERE IS ALSO A AREA OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. CONDITIONS ARE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS RAIN IS NOW JUST
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AND MOVING EAST NORTH EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. BREAKS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING...SOME OF
IT DENSE.

UPDATE TO GRIDS WAS MAINLY TO TRIM BACK POPS BASED ON RADAR LOOPS.
ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AROUND SUNSET ON LABOR DAY.

PREVIOUS...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 312314
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FIRST I HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER AFT 00Z TONIGHT...AS SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY IS
DECREASING QUICKLY ACRS OUR CWA. MAYBE A RUMBLE OR TWO OUT TWD THE
SLV...ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY...BUT HAVE
NOTICED VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS.
ALSO...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS EVENING...WITH CRNT RADAR SHOWING BEST PRECIP ACRS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST WINDSOR COUNTY. VSF DID PICK UP A QUICK 0.12 OF PRECIP
IN THE PAST...BUT GIVEN CRNT TRENDS THIS SHOULD BE EAST OF REGION
BY 00Z. OTHERWISE...WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACRS
OUR REGION...EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO CONT ACRS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND THE DACKS...WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY OVER
THE HIGHER TRRN. HAVE INCREASED SFC DWPTS IN HRLY GRIDS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH MANY READINGS IN THE U60S TO L70S ACRS OUR
REGION...MAKING IT FEEL VERY MUGGY OUTSIDE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL
ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT
OF 15-20 KT HYDRO CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED
LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN
WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 312232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
632 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EAST...AND A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES SOMEWHAT.

AS FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SO THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH IS WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...AND
BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING. ADDITIONALLY...THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH
FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD AND COULD BE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE
CWA. LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...MORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AS WE OBSERVED EARLIER. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM/PW






000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 312004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT TO SCRAPE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TOWARD
NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES BY EVENING. WITHIN THE AREA OF RAIN
THERE ARE SOME SMALL AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN BUT THESE AREAS ARE
MOVING AND SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
THE PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION BUT THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER JET ARE NOT SUPPORTING
DEEP CONVECTION AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SO...CONFINING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS.

SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS
LINGER OVER MUCH OF NOT ALL THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOURCES
OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT AGAIN THE MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW.
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER
BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KT HYDRO
CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG
ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING
MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311939
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS A MORE DEFINITIVE
COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SEASONABLY
MILD AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD (60S) AND WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT OR SO AS PARENT UPPER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE INTL BORDER
BETWEEN 00-06Z. WITH PWATS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE (1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES) SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WITH MEAN CELL MOVEMENT OF 15-20 KT HYDRO
CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL ATTM. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND
LARGELY DRY LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST/SOUTH AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. PATCHY FOG
ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN FAVORED LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANYTHING
MORE WIDESPREAD IS LOW GIVEN WE LIKELY WON`T COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINING SEASONABLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...DURING MONDAY EXPECT VARIABLE MORNING
CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL-BLENDED 18Z
925 MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOLIDLY IN THE 60S A TYPICAL LATE
SUMMER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLD/STRAY SHOWER WITH AT LEAST SOME PBL INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS WEAK AT BEST
SO IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LIGHT THOUGH CONVERGENT THETA-E/UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW DECENT UPDRAFTS.

THEN REMAINING GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES
AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINITIVE H5 TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT TO OUR
WEST. LOWS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 60S ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG HERE
AND THERE...ESPECIALLY ERN VT.

ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY THEN IN STORE FOR NEXT TUESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND MODEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD TREND STRONG.
HOWEVER...MOST RECENT PROGS SUGGEST THAT ONCE AGAIN WE MAY BE
DEALING WITH QUITE A FEW PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND AND IF THIS WERE
TO PAN OUT THE THREAT WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR HWO...THOUGH KEEP
PUBLIC FORECAST WORDING GENERIC DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW/EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311937
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311937
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOWING A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATE IN THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SFC COLD FRONT THEN DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS
CANADA SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH. MLCAPES START MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND COULD BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR
NEAR THE CWA...SO NO WATCH WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY FLOODING
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH. MLCAPES START MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND COULD BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR
NEAR THE CWA...SO NO WATCH WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY FLOODING
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH. MLCAPES START MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND COULD BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR
NEAR THE CWA...SO NO WATCH WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY FLOODING
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311936
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS WILL BE IN THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER ON NEXT SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FROM THE WEST THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WHILE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES THROUGH. MLCAPES START MOSTLY IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO
THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO WITH PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES...AND BOTH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA INCREASING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY ALIGNED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE THREAT OF CELL TRAINING. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD
AND COULD BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND SOMEWHERE IN OR
NEAR THE CWA...SO NO WATCH WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SW FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP JUST
TO THE WEST ON MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THIS TIME
AROUND...SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PASSING OVER US. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME...THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT MOVE EAST.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS MLCAPES PROBABLY RISE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS TIME HOWEVER THE WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR TRAINING OF
CELLS. BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE A THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. A
RELATIVELY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH MOST FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. RIDGING
RESUMES THEREAFTER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.
THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO
THIS WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW
WEAKENS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING SATURDAY AND MOVING
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST TO CLOSE OUT NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATEST
WIDESPREAD POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S IN THE VICINITY OF
NYC AND URBAN NORTHEAST NJ ON TUESDAY...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE
SHEAR TO WORK...AROUND 25 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND
INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED BY MUCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN AROUND 500
TO 2000 J/KG. DRY WEATHER RETURNS THEREAFTER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SW FLOW OF AROUND 15KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO 5FT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SEAS FALL
JUST SHORT OF 5FT...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS
DON`T TOUCH 5FT TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SCA WHICH IS POSTED FOR
TONIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WOULD HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH RIDGING THE MORE DOMINANT PATTERN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA ON THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE...ABOUT AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BASINS. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...THERE WILL BE AREAS THAT
RECEIVE MUCH LESS...AND SOME AREAS THAT COULD SEE AT LEAST 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY FLOODING
WOULD OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING COULD OCCUR AT ANY POINT THROUGH MONDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM






000
FXUS61 KBUF 311919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH MID-AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH GRADUALLY
DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. IT WAS NOTED
THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE
RAIN-FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 06Z...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR OUT...FOG
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO THE DEW POINTS.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH MID-AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH GRADUALLY
DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. IT WAS NOTED
THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE
RAIN-FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 06Z...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR OUT...FOG
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO THE DEW POINTS.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH MID-AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH GRADUALLY
DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. IT WAS NOTED
THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE
RAIN-FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 06Z...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR OUT...FOG
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO THE DEW POINTS.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH MID-AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH GRADUALLY
DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. IT WAS NOTED
THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE
RAIN-FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 06Z...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR OUT...FOG
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO THE DEW POINTS.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT WILL BE REPLACED FROM THE WEST
BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW YORK STATE.

AS THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW YORK STATE IS QUITE A
GREAT DISTANCE REMOVED FROM IT ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OVER
HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL TAKE THE MOST OF THE DAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9" TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE RISK OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF STORMS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT IT WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOWS WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS...BUT NOT MUCH COOLER. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...THEN SETTLE A BIT CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311900
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH MID-AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH GRADUALLY
DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. IT WAS NOTED
THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE
RAIN-FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 06Z...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR OUT...FOG
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO THE DEW POINTS.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311900
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 300 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH MID-AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH GRADUALLY
DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING. IT WAS NOTED
THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE
RAIN-FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 06Z...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR OUT...FOG
WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO THE DEW POINTS.

ON LABOR DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST THE MORNING TO BE DRY...AS STRATUS
AND FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODEST
ML CAPES AVERAGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE PROBABLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZES (SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE). IN EACH CASE...COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER
SPOTTY...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY LIKELY TO STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK. SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE
BUILDS...WARMS UP THEN NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUT QUICKLY REBUILDING WITH DRIER AND AOA NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AND FRONT HAVE PASSED FA WITH
DEVELOPING ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND ALREADY BUIDING HEIGHTS WITH SFC
RIDGE BUILDING THRU THU. ON THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO CREST
WHILE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY...APPROACH OF NRN STREAM TROF BEGINS TO DAMPEN UPR LEVEL
RIDGE ACRS FA WITH SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FRI NGT-SAT WITH THE
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NGT.

UPR LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE ACRS FA SATURDAY FOR
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND APPEARS TO SHIFT E IN TIME FOR A DECENT SUNDAY
WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBUF 311837
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 200 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...WITH
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH
GRADUALLY DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. IT WAS
NOTED THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE RAIN-
FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 09Z...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR
OUT...FOG WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 311837
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 200 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...WITH
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH
GRADUALLY DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. IT WAS
NOTED THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE RAIN-
FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 09Z...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR
OUT...FOG WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 311837
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 200 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...WITH
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH
GRADUALLY DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. IT WAS
NOTED THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE RAIN-
FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 09Z...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR
OUT...FOG WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 311837
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG. THEN A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 200 PM...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN
QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WILL PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE IT
LARGELY WASHES OUT OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING HAD 1.83 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SO THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...WITH
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWING THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WAS CAPTURED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE AND THE HRRR. BOTH
GRADUALLY DROP THESE SHOWERS SOUTHWARD AS THEY WEAKEN. IT WAS
NOTED THAT LEGACY RADAR UNDERESTIMATED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WHICH
IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE WARM SOUNDING.

SHOWERS SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE RAIN-
FREE...HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS A MODEST 20KT FLOW FORECAST AT 925MB THROUGH 09Z...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN STRATUS CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. IF SKIES ALOFT DO CLEAR
OUT...FOG WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO
THE DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...MVFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THESE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NW-SE AS DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER-MID LEVELS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOG MAY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE ONLY FORECAST QUESTION WHETHER CIGS DEVELOP
(PROBABLY IFR-MVFR) AND LIMIT GROUND FOG...OR IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
ALOFT AND RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 06Z...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DENSE FOG BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z MONDAY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING MONDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING A BIT LONGER IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER (JHW).

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY..BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
700/500MB S/WV CRNTLY CROSSING THE BGM CWA. PCPN IN THE MAIN BAND HAS
BCM FRAGMENTED OVER THE LAST HR. STRONGER CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
OCCURING JUST TO THE SE OF THE CWA WHERE GREATER HEATING HAS
OCCURRED...AND SOME REDVLPNT ACRS SW NYS WHICH MAY TRACK EWD INTO
THE CNTRL SRN TIER LATER THIS AFTN. CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWLY
DCRSNG POPS LATE THIS AFTN/OVRNGT...LINGERING ACRS NE PA WHERE 2NDRY
WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG. IT
WILL BE VERY SOUPY TNGT WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG. GNRLY WENT ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GDNC...WITH MINS GNRLY IN THE U60S.

ON MON...A WEAK BUBBLE HIGH WORKS INTO CNTRL NY. NAM PROFILES SHOW
A MID LVL CAP WHICH WOULD SUPRESS CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT ACRS NRN
ZONES...BUT THE GFS PROFILES DON`T SHOW THIS FEATURE. STAYED WITH
CONTINUITY FOR THIS REASON WITH SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES...AND LOW
CHC POPS ACRS NE PA/CATSKILLS. TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE 80-85
RNG TMRW MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT WILL BE APRCHNG WRN NY BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF FROPA APPEARS
FVRBL FOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT IN THE BGM CWA...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FNT SPCLY
OVER WRN ZONES. THERE ARE FVRBL JET DYNAMICS AND UPR LVL DVRGNC
ALONG WITH DECENT 50H HGT FALLS AND LOW LVL FNTL MSTR CONVERGENCE.
BEST GUESS ATTM IS AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE...AND WIND FIELDS
SHOW 35-40 KTS AT 700 MB...SO WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS
IN THE AFTN.

MDL PROFILES AND LOW LVL RH PROGS SUGGEST AREAS OF LOW CLDS WILL
DVLP/ADVECT INTO THE AREA POST-FROPA LATE TUE NGT/EARLY WED MRNG
BEFORE BEFORE SKIES BREAK OUT FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN
AND HIGHS IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311758
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS AREA RESIDES IN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH. IN
GENERAL WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE. THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD MVFR
IS EXPECTED DUE TO VSBYS THEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL
SATURATION AND WEAK MIXING WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 15Z.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS TIL 00Z AND MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR/MVFR MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR/MVFR VSBY AND BREIF IFR IN
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...VFR TO IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG
FORMATION WITH IFR FOR KSLK/KMPV WITH LGT WINDS.

WINDS HAVE SLOWLY TAPERED FROM 15-25 KTS EARLIER AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WILL TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OUT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z
WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR KPOU
WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WAS PLACED FROM 20Z-00Z. IN ADDITION TO MVFR
FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR/VFR STRATUS
INTERMITTENTLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z AND SHOULD END AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL AND
KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND NYC THROUGH 21-22Z. MORE OF THE POP UP
VARIETY.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND NYC THROUGH 21-22Z. MORE OF THE POP UP
VARIETY.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND NYC THROUGH 21-22Z. MORE OF THE POP UP
VARIETY.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES MONDAY FROM THE WEST.

VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND NYC THROUGH 21-22Z. MORE OF THE POP UP
VARIETY.

THEN A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH AND LIKELY IMPACT
NYC METRO AROUND THE 22-01Z TIME FRAME. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN
MOVES EAST...WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPACTED.

TOWERING CU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.

ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF MONDAY.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN
TO 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON AFTERNOON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA.
.WED-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS NOW EXCEPT FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND SOUTH...CAPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT
WHERE THEY ARE NOW. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS MINIMAL IF ANY. ANY HEAVY POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. SO...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311647
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS TEMPS ROSE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 80-85 IN MOST SPOTS...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE NJ AND THE CITY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK
WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311606
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY ALTHOUGH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA. BEHIND
THIS...BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SW-NE
AND IS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO AT 1100 AM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
12Z BUF SOUNDING HAS AN IMPRESSIVE 1.83 INCH PWAT...SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MITIGATE FLOOD POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A
DEVELOPING AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH A LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR TO NAM/RGEM FOCUS THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST OF EACH LAKE...OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PARTIAL CLEARING BY
MIXING OUT LOW MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL WARM...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH 80 IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET
PROLONGED SUNSHINE. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
70S.

TONIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MAIN RAIN AREA TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. IF THEY MATERIALIZE...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AN IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LOW VSBY IN RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART WITH
THE SW WIND SHIFT...WHILE JHW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER AND
THEN IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR DURING THE EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NY AS WELL AFTER ABOUT 09Z. AREAS OF FOG AND IFR VSBY ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES AS WELL WHERE THE LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE ABRUPTLY ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FOOT WAVES AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE WSW AND MIX DOWN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. ALSO...THERE IS A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER SPOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
END AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND OFF THE LAKE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311606
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY ALTHOUGH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA. BEHIND
THIS...BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SW-NE
AND IS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO AT 1100 AM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
12Z BUF SOUNDING HAS AN IMPRESSIVE 1.83 INCH PWAT...SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MITIGATE FLOOD POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A
DEVELOPING AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH A LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR TO NAM/RGEM FOCUS THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST OF EACH LAKE...OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PARTIAL CLEARING BY
MIXING OUT LOW MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL WARM...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH 80 IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET
PROLONGED SUNSHINE. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
70S.

TONIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MAIN RAIN AREA TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. IF THEY MATERIALIZE...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AN IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LOW VSBY IN RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART WITH
THE SW WIND SHIFT...WHILE JHW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER AND
THEN IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR DURING THE EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NY AS WELL AFTER ABOUT 09Z. AREAS OF FOG AND IFR VSBY ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES AS WELL WHERE THE LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE ABRUPTLY ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FOOT WAVES AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE WSW AND MIX DOWN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. ALSO...THERE IS A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER SPOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
END AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND OFF THE LAKE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311606
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY ALTHOUGH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA. BEHIND
THIS...BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SW-NE
AND IS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO AT 1100 AM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
12Z BUF SOUNDING HAS AN IMPRESSIVE 1.83 INCH PWAT...SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MITIGATE FLOOD POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A
DEVELOPING AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH A LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR TO NAM/RGEM FOCUS THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST OF EACH LAKE...OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PARTIAL CLEARING BY
MIXING OUT LOW MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL WARM...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH 80 IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET
PROLONGED SUNSHINE. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
70S.

TONIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MAIN RAIN AREA TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. IF THEY MATERIALIZE...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AN IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LOW VSBY IN RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART WITH
THE SW WIND SHIFT...WHILE JHW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER AND
THEN IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR DURING THE EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NY AS WELL AFTER ABOUT 09Z. AREAS OF FOG AND IFR VSBY ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES AS WELL WHERE THE LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE ABRUPTLY ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FOOT WAVES AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE WSW AND MIX DOWN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. ALSO...THERE IS A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER SPOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
END AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND OFF THE LAKE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311606
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1206 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY ALTHOUGH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA. BEHIND
THIS...BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SW-NE
AND IS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO AT 1100 AM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
12Z BUF SOUNDING HAS AN IMPRESSIVE 1.83 INCH PWAT...SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR THE MOST PART...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MITIGATE FLOOD POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A
DEVELOPING AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

IT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH A LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH
SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR TO NAM/RGEM FOCUS THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST OF EACH LAKE...OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PARTIAL CLEARING BY
MIXING OUT LOW MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL WARM...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH 80 IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET
PROLONGED SUNSHINE. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
70S.

TONIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MAIN RAIN AREA TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. IF THEY MATERIALIZE...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AN IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LOW VSBY IN RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART WITH
THE SW WIND SHIFT...WHILE JHW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER AND
THEN IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR DURING THE EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NY AS WELL AFTER ABOUT 09Z. AREAS OF FOG AND IFR VSBY ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES AS WELL WHERE THE LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE ABRUPTLY ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FOOT WAVES AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE WSW AND MIX DOWN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. ALSO...THERE IS A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER SPOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
END AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND OFF THE LAKE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311512
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1112 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY ALTHOUGH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA. BEHIND
THIS...BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SW-NE
AND IS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO AT 1100 AM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
12Z BUF SOUNDING HAS AN IMPRESSIVE 1.83 INCH PWAT...SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ARE LIKELY TO MOVE WITH THE BOUNDARY WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE FLOOD POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH A LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THIS
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR TO
NAM/RGEM FOCUS THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS EAST OF EACH
LAKE...OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PARTIAL CLEARING BY
MIXING OUT LOW MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL WARM...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH 80 IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET
PROLONGED SUNSHINE. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
70S.

TONIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MAIN RAIN AREA TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. IF THEY MATERIALIZE...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AN IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LOW VSBY IN RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART WITH
THE SW WIND SHIFT...WHILE JHW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER AND
THEN IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR DURING THE EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NY AS WELL AFTER ABOUT 09Z. AREAS OF FOG AND IFR VSBY ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES AS WELL WHERE THE LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE ABRUPTLY ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FOOT WAVES AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE WSW AND MIX DOWN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. ALSO...THERE IS A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER SPOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
END AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND OFF THE LAKE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311512
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1112 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY ALTHOUGH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK...JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EAST OF OUR CWA. BEHIND
THIS...BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SW-NE
AND IS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO AT 1100 AM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
12Z BUF SOUNDING HAS AN IMPRESSIVE 1.83 INCH PWAT...SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ARE LIKELY TO MOVE WITH THE BOUNDARY WHICH
SHOULD MITIGATE FLOOD POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH A LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ON THIS
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR TO
NAM/RGEM FOCUS THE STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS EAST OF EACH
LAKE...OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PARTIAL CLEARING BY
MIXING OUT LOW MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL WARM...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REACH 80 IN ANY AREAS WHICH GET
PROLONGED SUNSHINE. SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD STAY STUCK IN THE CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
70S.

TONIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MAIN RAIN AREA TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. IF THEY MATERIALIZE...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG. ALL THIS SAID...LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY EVENING...TAKING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT EVEN HERE THINGS WILL DRY OUT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL STILL AVERAGE AT OR JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SURFACE TROUGH AN IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. LOW VSBY IN RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART WITH
THE SW WIND SHIFT...WHILE JHW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR OR LOWER AND
THEN IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT.

TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY VFR DURING THE EVENING WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF IFR IN LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO FORM FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NY AS WELL AFTER ABOUT 09Z. AREAS OF FOG AND IFR VSBY ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES AS WELL WHERE THE LOW STRATUS INTERSECTS THE HILLS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF
MVFR/IFR. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM GALLOO
ISLAND TO CAPE VINCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST ON THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE ABRUPTLY ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FOOT WAVES AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE WSW AND MIX DOWN
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. ALSO...THERE IS A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON LAKE ERIE WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WATER SPOUTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
END AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND OFF THE LAKE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 311502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1102 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO TURN MORE
HUMID TODAY. LABOR DAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAINFREE...WARM BUT
HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF NY...WILL ATTEMPT TO COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM AROUND THE
CAPITAL REGION EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS. THIS
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THICKER CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER. LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS STILL WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...BUT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL STAY DRY FOR THE
LONGEST DURATION TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED MORE TOWARDS MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THERE.

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...WE ARE NO
LONGER IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM WILL
LIKELY MITIGATE MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER LIMITING
FACTOR IS TWO CAPS NOTED ON THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING...ONE AROUND 900
MB AND ANOTHER JUST ABOVE 700 MB. DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR IS
RATHER STRONG AT 40 KT...SO A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS PWATS LOOK TO RAMP UP TO AROUND TWO INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE PAST WEEK...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO
80 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH...OTHERWISE
MID 70S FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STILL BE IN OUR AREA...LIKELY
STALLING IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATORS THAT
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS TO OUR SOUTH. EVEN AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY TONIGHT...SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF
DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

MONDAY...LABOR DAY...IS ALSO THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
IT WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE FALL TOMORROW...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
COOLER AT ALL. IN FACT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
COMBINE  THAT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...AND IT WILL FEEL
QUITE WARM. WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH GONE...THERE
MIGHT STILL BE ENOUGH OF CONVERGENCE AREA (ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS) ALONG WITH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALBANY NORTHWARD...WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS SOUTH. STILL...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
RAINFREE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE STILL NEARBY.

BY TUESDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE MORE BY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN...SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY GET STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. MORE
ABOUT THIS POSSIBILITY WILL FOLLOW IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
TO COME.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING 90 IN SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATED IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER
COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN. THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS HOWEVER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...TO MID 60S ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO EXPECT TEMPS
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES...IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HAVE FORECAST
CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY 70 TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...EXPECT A 5 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF...THEN DETERIORATING TO MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EARLY EVENING AS THE
WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCES MVFR
FOG AND STRATUS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT HAVE
FORECAST THE FOG AND STRATUS TO REACH IFR LEVELS AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 10 KTS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF OUR REGION HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST
WEEK. THAT WILL CHANGE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOST AREAS SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL...AND IN SOME CASES...LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH OR BETTER. IT
WILL REMAIN HUMID TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO ABOUT THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE.

A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND LABOR
DAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN RAINFREE. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL BE NEARLY 100 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...ONLY DROPPING TO 50-60 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


THE SURFACE WIND BE MAINLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT 5-15
MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN
INCH OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THIS
AFTN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP UP BEFORE NOON. ALSO
INTRODUCED PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA AS PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP
UP HIGHS OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL
BACK IN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD
COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THIS
AFTN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP UP BEFORE NOON. ALSO
INTRODUCED PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA AS PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP
UP HIGHS OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL
BACK IN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD
COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THIS
AFTN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP UP BEFORE NOON. ALSO
INTRODUCED PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA AS PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP
UP HIGHS OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL
BACK IN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD
COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311437
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES UNTIL THIS
AFTN...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP UP BEFORE NOON. ALSO
INTRODUCED PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO SOME OF THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA AS PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR SUPPORTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THOUGH SHOWN MORE PROGRESSION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
00Z MODEL SUITE.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP
UP HIGHS OVER SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES IF CLOUDS DO NOT FILL
BACK IN AS QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD
COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HZ MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR IN SPOTS.
SOUTH TO SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY CSTL AND NYC METRO AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE
EVE. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
PROGRESSIVE RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO
LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24/PW
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASING HUMID AIR
MASS...WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...WILL
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE MID-SUMMER ON LABOR DAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. IT WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM ON
TUESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DID TWEAK POPS/SKY SLIGHTLY BASED OFF
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS COVERAGE EXPANDS ALONG WITH THE PROSPECT OF A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. WE MAY ALSO SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS RE-ENTERING OUR NRN BORDER COUNTIES TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS DYING SFC TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. RECENT RUNS FROM A FEW OF THE MORE TRUSTED CAM MODELS DO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY SO HAVE KEPT LINGERING CHC POPS IN THESE
AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS STILL APPEAR RIGHT ON
TRACK...MAINLY 70S TO PERHAPS A SPOT 80 HERE AND THERE WHERE ANY
BRIEF SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATELY
STRONG S-SW LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO
ON THE RISE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOST SECTIONS HAVE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...AND WILL SEE A SLOW RISE TO THE
MID-UPR 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AFFECTED
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY EWD
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT
DURING THE PAST 2-4 HRS...AND IS NOW EXITING. UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TODAY...AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN AT 07Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THE AFTN...WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
HIGHLIGHTING CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LIMITED OWING TO PREVAILING
MID-UPR LEVEL OVERCAST. THAT SAID...HIGH DEW POINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LIMITED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG THIS AFTN.
COMBINATION OF HIGH FREEZING LEVELS (12-13 KFT) AND PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.80-2.00" WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY ANY LOCALIZED TSTM ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CELL MOTIONS WILL BE ENE 10-20
MPH...AND GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...DON/T FORESEE ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS DESPITE POTENTIAL ADVERSE IMPACT TO OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN MID-UPR OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 70S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARS OUT TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT...AND MAJORITY OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE REGION.
WILL INDICATE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. P-GRADIENT RELATIVELY
FLAT...SO COMBINATION OF RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE
FCST AT THIS POINT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S-SW 5-8 MPH...GENERALLY GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...MONDAY WILL FEATURE VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850MB TEMPS STILL
+16C OR SO...AND ANTICIPATE VALLEY HIGHS OF 83-87F. DEW POINTS
GENERALLY MID-UPR 60S...SO WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A MID-SUMMER FEEL.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM...BUT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT.

GENERALLY QUIET AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASING IN S-SW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND SFC FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
PREVAILING WARM/HUMID AIR MASS. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AT +17 TO +18C
BY 00Z GFS...SO WILL SEE HIGHS MID-UPR 80S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SHOULD SEE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED...AND WITH STRONG FORCING ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE EWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS
AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THIS STRONG TO SVR
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. EVENTUALLY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z AND PRODUCE VFR AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 00Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...THEN WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THUS A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO 1
TO 3 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SLW
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311347
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR CIGS AT KBGM. WHILE BRIEF IFR CIGS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT RIGHT THROUGH 15Z, SURFACE OBS TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINAL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW END MVFR. WILL CONTINUE
THE COURSE WITH THE 12Z UPDATE. IN ADDITION KAVP HAS VERY LOW CIGS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THIS TERMINAL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW
END MVFR THROUGH 15Z.

ELSEWHERE, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS BY 13Z. HERE MVFR VSBYS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
HERE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z ESPECIALLY FROM KITH SOUTH AND
EAST. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE LATER AT KAVP (16Z) BUT THIS
TERMINAL STANDS THE BEST SHOT AT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MVFR POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z.


OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311347
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANY STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ON LABOR DAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES BUT THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM UPDATE...FCST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS FOR THE MRNG
UPDATE. LACK OF SIG INSTABILTY DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN WILL TEMPER
CHCS FOR SVR TSRA ACRS FAR SE ZONES. MAIN FOCUS WIL BE POTNL FOR
LOCALLY +RA WTIH EMBEDDED THUNDER TDA. PREV BLO...

625 AM UPDATE...
WV HAS NOW MADE IT INTO SE OH THIS MRNG WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MVG INTO NRN MTNS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SHUD BE ENCROACHING INTO
SWRN SXNS OF CWA IN THE NEXT HR. HV BUMPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TO ACCNT FOR EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS BEING ACTED
ON BY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. HV CONTINUED MENTION OF HVY RAIN THIS
MRNG AND AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

130 AM UPDATE...
GOM IS WIDE OPEN THIS MRNG WITH PW VALUES UP ARND 2.00 INCHES ACRS
NIAGARA REGION OF WNY. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST AND MV INTO
CWA BY LATE MRNG, GIVE OR TAKE SVRL HRS. BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
IS MVG EAST FM ADIRONDACKS DOWN INTO NEOH WITH AN OCNL LGTNG STRIKE
OCCURRING. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH S/WV RIPPLING NEWD IN SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ASSOC WITH MAIN WV MVG THRU TN
VLY AND IS RIDING UP THRU ERN KY AT THIS TIME.

HV OPTED TO BACK OFF ON POPS A LITTLE MORE WITH A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT SNEAKING INTO FINGER LKS UNTIL
CLOSER TO 08Z THIS MRNG PER LATEST MVMNT ON LINE.  EXPECTING SCTD
SHOWERS AND OCNL THUNDER THRU 11Z BFR WV MVS UP INTO WRN PA AND
COMBINES WITH DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO BUMP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY. AT
THE SAME TIME UL SPEED MAX, CURRENTLY MVG UP THRU CNTRL GREAT LKS,
WL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THRU THE OVRNGT AND ALLOW FOR ADDNL LIFT.

LKLY SHOWERS CONTINUE THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG WITH WK LAPSE RATES VRY LITTLE THUNDER
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SEEM RIGHT FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN DVLP AND HV CONTD TO MENTION CHC HVY RAIN.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS TDA HV SIDED TWD COOLER MAV NUMBERS AS OPPOSED TO
MET GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S. ANY AREA THAT CAN SEE SUN
TDA MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK UP INTO THE L80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH CHC FOR THUNDER CONTG
THRU 03Z IN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALL 00Z MODELS SHIFT 70+ KT
SPEED MAX EAST BISECTING CWA BY 06Z. IN JUICY AIRMASS, MAY SEE AN
ISOLD SHOWER BE ABLE TO EEK OUT NORTH OF THE SRN TIER BUT WL CONFINE
CHC POPS TO SRN ZONES THRU 12Z MONDAY. VRY LITTLE DRIVING FORCE FOR
LIFT TO WARRANT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 POPS AFT 06Z. LATEST NAM IS
INDICATING QPF BULLSEYE OVR NEPA BTWN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY IN S/WV
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG PERIPHERY OF H5 RIDGE. HIRES MODELS (ARW AND
NMM) ALSO INDICATING ENHANCED PCPN LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
CWA IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND EURO. NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS POINT
BUT WL PASS ALONG TO LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS IDEA.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WL RISE INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AND WITH DWPTS STILL
UP IN THE U60S/NR 70 COUPLED WITH SOME SUN DRG THE DAY, CAPE VALUES
WL INCRS TO ARND 1000 J/KG. WITH VRY LITTLE TRIGGER EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL KEEP JUST A GENERAL MENTION OF CHC
THUNDER DRG THE DAY AS DIURNAL HTG WORKS ITS MAGIC ON JUICY AIRMASS.

SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE MON NGT AND CDFNT WL APPCH FM THE WEST
BY 12Z TUE, SETTING UP ACRS THE CNTRL GREAT LKS. EXPECT POPS TO
INCRS TUE MRNG WITH LKLY THUNDER DRG THE AFTN HRS. INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO APPCH 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST SHEAR GIVING WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FROPA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFT MIDNIGHT WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12Z WED ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST. DWPTS WL DROP
INTO THE LWR 60S IN WAKE OF FROPA WITH OVRNGT LOWS WED MRNG ALSO
DROPPING DOWN TWD 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE.
CDFNT WILL BE MOVG OUT OF THE RGN ON TUE NGT WITH SOME LINGERING
SHRA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY
NEXT WEEKEND...NXT FNTL SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA...ALTHO TIMING STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. MAIN THEME WILL BE
A CONTINUATION OF ABV NORMAL TEMPS AS SRN/SE U.S. RDG BUILDS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH IFR CIGS AT KBGM. WHILE BRIEF IFR CIGS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT RIGHT THROUGH 15Z, SURFACE OBS TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINAL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW END MVFR. WILL CONTINUE
THE COURSE WITH THE 12Z UPDATE. IN ADDITION KAVP HAS VERY LOW CIGS
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THIS TERMINAL SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW
END MVFR THROUGH 15Z.

ELSEWHERE, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS BY 13Z. HERE MVFR VSBYS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
HERE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z ESPECIALLY FROM KITH SOUTH AND
EAST. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE LATER AT KAVP (16Z) BUT THIS
TERMINAL STANDS THE BEST SHOT AT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION VFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MVFR POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z.


OUTLOOK...


MON-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA-TSRA MAINLY
AFTN-EVNG...ESPECIALLY TUE.

WED-THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP ACROSS NRN NJ BUT SINCE HAVE DISSIPATED.
THIS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR THIS MORNING WHERE IT SHOULD
REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. TIMING MAY BE OFF 1-2 HOURS.
HZ MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR
IN SPOTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PROGRESSIVE
RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SEND A TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS POPPED UP ACROSS NRN NJ BUT SINCE HAVE DISSIPATED.
THIS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LAST 24H AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HAS PASSED TO THE EAST WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THESE LATER TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH A SFC TROF TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES. LATEST DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS ALSO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NY METRO AREA...FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
RESIDE.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF NYC...THEN OVERSPREADING THE
REST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. PW IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED
SHEAR SUPPORTS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
NYC...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING OF CELLS. THE 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOW MORE PROGRESSION THAN 24H AGO THOUGH.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. PREFERRED THE
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THERE BE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW
DEGREES CAN EASILY BE ADDED TO THESE HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TOO FAR BELOW THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH CLOUD COVER AND AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES...BUT THIS MAY INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFT/EVE CONVECTION
ON MON AS ANOTHER TROF SETS UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND THEN
APPROACHES BY EARLY EVE. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH PW AROUND 2 INCHES WILL KEEP
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT.

HIGHS MON ARE FORECAST TO BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DOMINANT PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT OF RIDGING ON AVERAGE.
ON A LARGE SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS APPARENT ON THE MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT FROM QUEBEC TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MORE HEIGHT FALLS AND A
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. RIDGING RESUMES THEREAFTER WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PUSHING NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
DISSIPATES WITHIN THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON
MONDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN ITS PLACE WITHOUT A
STRONG PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION HELPING EXPLAIN THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. THE JET PUSHES BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM OVERALL KEEPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE SHEAR TO
WORK WITH. MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH NEXT FRONT APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR THIS MORNING WHERE IT SHOULD
REMAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. TIMING MAY BE OFF 1-2 HOURS.
HZ MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND COULD LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBY TO MVFR
IN SPOTS.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTN
BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSTMS LATE AFTN/EVE MAINLY FROM CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS
N/W AS TROUGH APPROACHES. TIMING OF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW
HOURS. THESE INCREASING CHCS TRANSLATE EWD DURING THE EVE. MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PROGRESSIVE
RAIN IS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY BE HOLDING ON TO IT TOO LONG.

MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN ENDS AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON-MON NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MON AFT/EVE.
MVFR STATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT.
.TUE...SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS LOW PRES PASSES TO THE N AND
HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASING SLY FLOW. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BUILD IN
RESPONSE WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY MON MORNING.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FT SEAS TO LINGER A FEW HOURS LONGER
E OF MORICHES INLET...BUT WILL END THE HAZARD AT 10Z FOR NOW. WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO COME CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVE.

SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
SURFACE TROUGHS WILL INTERACT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION EACH
AFT/EVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ON AVERAGE...LOOKING FOR ABOUT AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BASINS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...24
HYDROLOGY...DW







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311151
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON LABOR DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
COVERING MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY. THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
THE RAIN IS LIKELY DUE TO MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS
FROM A WEAK BAROCLINIC LEAF NOTED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
STEADY RAIN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY. THE BACK EDGE IS NEAR KERI-KBUF AT 1130Z...AND MUCH OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL MISS OUT ON THE STEADIER RAIN. THAT SAID...
THE BACK EDGE MAY NOT STAY CLEAN WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH
AS THE HRRR SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER JUST WEST OF THE STEADIER RAIN.

FOR TODAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA PRODUCED BY
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMA AIDING IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHING FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A BELT OF 30-35 KNOT FLOW IN THE
900-700MB LAYER WILL AID IN ORGANIZING CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. AT THE SURFACE WEAK/ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EASING ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A WEAK BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE TRANSLATES NORTHEAST TODAY IT
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION ACROSS
OUR REGION...AIDING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. PWAT VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.8 INCHES ON AVERAGE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE QUALITY MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT COMING
TOGETHER...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW COUNTIES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS FREQUENT. IN GENERAL
THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD FOCUS FROM THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
REGION WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO KEEP A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THIS RISK SHOULD REMAIN
VERY ISOLATED AT BEST.

THIS AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINIC LEAF WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST AND TAKE THE STEADIER SHOWERS WITH IT.
EXPECT A DRYING TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY EVENTUALLY BECOMING
MAINLY DRY WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATE. SHOWERS WILL
BE SLOWER TO END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER TODAY
ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE VERY MUGGY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE WARM SPOT SHOULD BE THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS AND
THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE EARLIEST.

TONIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL NY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MAIN RAIN AREA TO ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. IF THEY MATERIALIZE...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO AREAS JUST
NORTH OF BUFFALO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND CROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND STICKY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. CAPE
VALUES BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION WILL RUN IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LI`S POSSIBLY AS LOW AS -4. HOWEVER WITH
WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20KTS) AND LACK OF A GOOD SURFACE TRIGGER
(ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE)...NOT EXPECTING ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND THUS CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MUCH
LOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION AND BE LOCATED WEST
OF NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE NIGHT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STARTING TO INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THANKS TO DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

LATEST GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE MODELS
NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE.
THAT SAID...IT NOW APPEARS IT WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE DAY TUESDAY
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AN
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS BY LATER IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OFFER THE RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM. SBCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES AT -4C TO -5C ALSO POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY ARE THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 40-45KT RANGE...AND ALSO HAVE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AR