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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1147 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST FINISHED A LITTLE BELATED LATE
MORNING UPDATE, BUT IN GENERAL THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPARTING, AND BASED ON WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBS, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN, AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA, SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
POKING INTO THE LOWER 50S THERE. FOR EVERYONE ELSE, LOW-MID 40S IS
ABOUT ALL (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 4000FT WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME LIGHT ICING
HAPPENING SINCE THEY ARE IN THE CLOUDS).

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THE IMPROVEMENT PROCESS IS GOING TO
BE PAINFULLY SLOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, BUT THAT WON`T BE UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET AT THE VERY
EARLIEST. AS A RESULT, I KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...WITH JUST
A FEW LEFT OVER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 4PM ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BEFORE 4PM. THEN...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...WITH JUST
A FEW LEFT OVER ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 4PM ON THE OCEAN
WATERS...AS WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BEFORE 4PM. THEN...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN
ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241442
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTY...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG
ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE CIRRUS UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE
ERIE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...BUT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL STILL FILTER THROUGH THE CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY. THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE
PLAY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NY...AND SOME LOWER VFR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241442
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTY...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG
ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE CIRRUS UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE
ERIE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...BUT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL STILL FILTER THROUGH THE CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY. THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE
PLAY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NY...AND SOME LOWER VFR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 241305
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
AND SOME SUNSHINE HAVE RETURNED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS. STILL
EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST TODAY AS THE UPPR LOW THAT HAS PRODUCES RAIN LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. THUS... AFTER THE SHOWERS END THIS MORNING EXPECT TODAY
TO BE DRY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND
ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING
SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../KAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 241133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE TODAY...AS ANY
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXES
OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDE OFF TO OUR EAST AS THEIR PARENT SURFACE LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE/
DRIER AIR RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXING OUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...AND LEFTOVER LOW AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDING OFF TO OUR EAST
AS THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KOKX 241128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS THAT ARE GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS AND EVEN PERHAPS AT A FEW OF
THE NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z OR SO. VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 6000 FT AROUND TODAY.

NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN 14Z-15Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA 12Z-14Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT ON LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 241111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 241045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 241037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD AND QUICKLY
LOSING INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. AS EXPECTED CONDITIONS ACTUALLY
IMPROVED LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRIER AIR HAS BEEN MOVING IN AND
ERODING WHAT REMAINS OF CLOUD COVER ON OUTER PERIPHERY OF EXITING
SYSTEM. KAVP COULD STILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR CIG...OTHERWISE JOINING
THE OTHER TERMINALS IN A QUICK SCATTERING OUT THIS MORNING AS
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS TODAY...WILL DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO
TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AN
MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL MANGE FORM TOWARDS DAWN UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FOR SOME TERMINALS...ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
VALLEY FOG AT KELM.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN
ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000
FT AROUND TODAY.

GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KT ON LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR.
THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE WATERS. SCA CONDS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN TRANQUIL CONDS ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 240841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR EXCEPT KSWF AND KGON. SHOWERS
DROPPING DOWN FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR AT A FEW PLACES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THEM DOWN
ATTM. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z...ALTHOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000
FT AROUND TODAY.

GUSTS HAVE BECOME OCNL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...14Z-15Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. DIRECTIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA 12Z-15Z. GUSTS MAY
DEVELOP AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 25 KT OVER LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND SCA
REMAINS UP THROUGH 6 AM. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...CONDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KALY 240824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240802
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 08Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DICHOTOMY
IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BUFFALO CWA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THE
GENERAL RULE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOUND FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. WITHIN THIS
LATTER AREA...AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...
WHERE A SWATH OF MORE LIMITED LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BRUSH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
FURTHER UPSLOPING/NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP/EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AS
THEY ARE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE LARGER SWATH OF CLOUDS PERHAPS
SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE COASTAL LOW DRIFTS
A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY...AND A SLOW BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AREAWIDE...AS ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER MIXES OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE LEFTOVER
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS RECEDE EAST OF THE AREA
AS THEIR PARENT SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND +9C...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE TODAY...WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THE WARMEST
TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 08Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DICHOTOMY
IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THE GENERAL
RULE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOUND FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. WITHIN THIS LATTER AREA...
LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOMINANT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...
WHERE A SWATH OF MORE LIMITED IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO BRUSH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
FURTHER UPSLOPING/NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP/EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AS
THEY ARE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE LARGER SWATH OF CLOUDS PERHAPS
SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE COASTAL LOW DRIFTS
A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY...AND A SLOW BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREAWIDE...WITH ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER MIXING OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER
CEILINGS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY FINALLY RECEDING
EAST OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBTV 240748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO YOUR FRIDAY. OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT
MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL
LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH IT. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING.

WITH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTIALLY CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER
60S ACROSS THE URBANIZED PARTS OF NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FT AROUND TODAY. KBDR IS CURRENTLY VFR BUT COULD SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. KISP/KGON STARTING OFF MVFR WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END
VFR. TIMING COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF. VFR THEN REMAINS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KHPN AND KISP STILL EXPERIENCING FREQ GUSTS SO HAVE KEPT THEM IN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE AN OCNL GUST
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...AROUND 14Z. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY IMPACTS FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
TO 25 KT OVER LI SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR THIS MORNING...AND SCA
REMAINS UP THROUGH 6 AM. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...CONDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS THEN ON TAP THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV
MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA. CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR
DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD TO PROGRESS STEADILY BUT SLOWLY
EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT
81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME. WRN CATSKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE
BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES
WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS
WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. TREND IN MODEL
CONSENSUS /WITH GFS FASTEST...ECMWF MIDDLE...AND GEM SLOWEST/ IS
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE WITHIN THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. POPS TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY. AHEAD OF THAT
FRONT...AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW WE BRIEFLY GET QUITE
WARM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY A GOOD DOZEN OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION SPOTS MAY EVEN TOUCH 70. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240704
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
304 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLND CST WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AS NEXT S/WV MOVS INTO THE CNTRL GTLAKES TDA.
CLDS THIS MRNG WITH SOME -RA OR DZ ACRS ERN ZONES. CLEARING XPCTD
TO PROGRESS STEADLILY BUT SLOWLY EWD TDA. ATTM THINK THE WRN EDGE
OF THE CLDS WILL BE NEAR THE RT 81 CORRIDOR IN THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME. WRN CATKILLS PRBLY WON`T SEE BREAKS UNTIL LATE TDA. MAXES
IN THE U50S TO NEAR 60 WRN ZONES WHERE MORE SS WILL OCCUR...L50S
ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN CATSKILLS WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGEST. NW WINDS GNRLY 10-20 KTS.

WE`LL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES TNGT BEFORE CLDS INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE NXT S/WV LATE TNGT DUE TO WAA AND WEAK ISEN
LIFT. MINS GNRLY FROM THE U30 TO L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
VARYING AMTS OF CLDS ON SATURDAY DUE TO MRNG WAA...THEN SOME
IMPRVMNT PSBL IN THE AFTN BEFORE MORE CLDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY
AS THE CDFNT APRCHS. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE L60S ACRS MANY AREAS. CHC POPS LATE IN DAY FOR
-SHRA FROM STEUBEN INTO ONEIDA COUNTY...WITH CHC POPS MIGRATING
SEWD ON SAT EVNG TO COVER MUCH OF CNTRL NY. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT NOT ALOT OF MSTR. WEAK LAKE INFLUENCE COMBINED
WITH ANOTHER S/WV KEEPS CHC POPS ACRS FAR NRN ZONES ON SUNDAY INTO
SUN EVNG WHERE CLDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...WITH PC SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. BLUSTERY NW WINDS XPCTD ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE
DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE
FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT
AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS
WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN
NATURE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE DICHOTOMY IN CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO
THE MID 40S FURTHER EAST.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. IN THIS LATTER REGION...LOWER-END VFR
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOMINANT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE
DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE
FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME IFR PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT...
IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT
AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS
WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN
NATURE.

ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE...WITH ANY
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS MIXING OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND
LEFTOVER CEILINGS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY FINALLY
RECEDING EAST OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
IN TURN...THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER TIME...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBGM 240556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S POP FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT AS CYCLONE PULLS
NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE NEAR
TERM HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AS
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WEAK AND FADING FAST.

NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALTERED.

105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AND LOSING
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF CLOUD
COVER CURRENTLY...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS...BUT THOSE WILL ACTUALLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 06Z-10Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND ERODES IT. BY
10Z KBGM-KITH SHOULD BE DONE WITH IFR...KAVP-KELM SHOULD BE ABOVE
FUEL ALT REQ LEVEL...AND KSYR-KRME CIG SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR
TO VFR. REMAINDER OF CLOUDS WILL BE QUICK TO SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKE OVER. NW WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-19 KTS
/MAINLY DAYTIME/...WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-SUN...SPOTTY -SHRA WITH SAT EVE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL POST FRONTAL MVFR CIG INTO SUNDAY FOR NY TERMINALS.

SUN NGT THROUGH TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240552
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM
THE WEST.

VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP A BKN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500
AND 5000 FT AROUND TODAY. KBDR IS CURRENTLY VFR BUT COULD SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. KISP/KGON STARTING OFF MVFR WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END
VFR. TIMING COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF. VFR THEN REMAINS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KHPN AND KISP STILL EXPERIENCING FREQ GUSTS SO HAVE KEPT THEM IN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ANY OF THE TERMINALS COULD SEE AN OCNL GUST
UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NW FLOW/GUSTS PICK UP
AGAIN AFT SUNRISE...AROUND 14Z. DIRECTIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL MID EVE.

EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY IMPACTS FROM
LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KALY 240552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240253
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW GENERALLY 10-15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE OVERNIGHT...
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NW
ON FRI BUT REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY
IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SHOWERS AT KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KGON LATE THIS
EVENING AND AT MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
FRI...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END VFR OVERNIGHT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE EAST AT
KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR FLUCTUATING CIGS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 240253
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SLIDES
S...WITH A SECOND ROUND LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW GENERALLY 10-15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE OVERNIGHT...
THEN PICK UP AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NW
ON FRI BUT REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. EXPECT MAINLY VICINITY
IMPACTS FROM LIGHT SHOWERS AT KLGA/KJFK/KISP/KGON LATE THIS
EVENING AND AT MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
FRI...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW-END VFR OVERNIGHT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE EAST AT
KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR FLUCTUATING CIGS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR OCEAN WATERS WITH WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST BELOW GALE AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. FREQUENT SCA GUSTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS.

MARGINAL NEAR-SHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI DEPENDING
ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING OVERLAND. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES...AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EAST OF BUFFALO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WINDS PREVENT GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR
FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER DUE TO COOLING AND A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 02Z...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT ART LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1K FT ACROSS
NW PA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE COULD SPREAD
INTO JHW OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS OR
FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BUF/IAG HOWEVER WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL
KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LOW
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES...AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EAST OF BUFFALO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WINDS PREVENT GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR
FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER DUE TO COOLING AND A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 02Z...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT ART LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1K FT ACROSS
NW PA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE COULD SPREAD
INTO JHW OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS OR
FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BUF/IAG HOWEVER WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL
KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LOW
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBGM 240132
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
932 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S POP FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT AS CYCLONE PULLS
NORTHWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE NEAR
TERM HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN FA BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AS
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS WEAK AND FADING FAST.

NEAR TERM TEMPS AND DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ALTERED.

105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
MVFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER TO JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT/SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240029
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
829 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH GEORGES BANK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS ONLY DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY LOWER HUD VALLEY/SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI.
THE FIRST OF THESE...AFFECTING THE AREA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A
SECOND POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. OVERALL ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STRATO-CU WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH DURING
THE DAY...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

N-NW FLOW 15G20-25 KT SHOULD ABATE LATE TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP
AGAIN BY 14Z FRI. DIRECTION WILL REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC EVEN
THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE NW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. SOME SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT KGON EARLY AND MOST TERMINALS CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...BUT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACT IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY LOW-END VFR
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS...BUT COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT FARTHER INLAND AT KSWF AND TO THE
EAST AT KISP/KGON SHOULD TAKE LONGER...WITH VFR NOT EXPECTED AT
KGON UNTIL AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHED AMD FOR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL GALES THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO SCA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER WATERS...MAY FALL JUST
BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MARGINAL NEARSHORE SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ALL WATERS ON FRI. OCEAN
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SCA FRI AFT.

SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
FOR THIS EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH RESIDUALS CONTINUING TO
FALL INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV









000
FXUS61 KALY 240010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ON
RADAR...AS WELL AS LIKELY PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WAS
SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL). INDEED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE...OF THE LOW...TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD...LOOKS TO HAVE
RISEN FROM 997 TO 998 MB IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINED QUITE SATURATED SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND EASTWARD SO THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A LITTLE...SO ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERESTING...THE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AGAIN DOWN TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE...AS THERE IS BETTER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN...SINCE IT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER AND MORE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION DIFFERENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AND CERTAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RESIDUAL SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AT THAT TIME).

DECIDED TO RAISE A FEW MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT DUE THE FACT THE IF
ANYTHING...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN PLACED BY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND IN SOME CASES...THE 8PM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 700 PM ONES.  WITH THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS AS IF CIGS WILL OCCASIONAL DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AT KPSF DUE TO AN UPSLOPE WIND AND KALB DUE TO MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS GFL AND KPOU BUT AT THIS POINT...WE
FELT THE THREAT WAS TOO LOW (AND BRIEF) NOT NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...KPOU WAS ACTUALLY MVFR DUE TO THE GUSTY
WINDS.

CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BOUNCE BACK TO VFR AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES...UNTIL WELL PAST THE MORNING PEAK FRIDAY.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.


SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 240007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
807 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 240003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW HAS PUSHED SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL
BE DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING BEFORE RETREATING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE AS RADAR DISPLAYS RATHER SPARSE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SHOWERS ENDING
AND A GENERAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. NAM/RUC BUFKIT SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WESTERN AREAS
WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A
MODEST FLOW...THIS COULD JUST MIX OUT...OR THERE COULD BE PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO SOME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG ELSEWHERE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 00Z. THIS WILL
MEANDER THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FT AT ROC...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT
BUF/IAG/JHW TO ALSO BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. AFTER
THAT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF THIS SHOULD
BE SPARSE...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY GIVEN TAF LOCATION...BUT
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT
BUF/IAG/JHW. LOW MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

AT ART...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER WILL LINGER THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO RAISE CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR





000
FXUS61 KBGM 240001
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
801 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
MVFR/MVFR CATEGORY. AT KBGM IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ON FRIDAY, CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FURTHER TO JUST
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT/SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 232346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 232157
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
557 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEXT VORT AND AREA OF SHOWERS PIVOTING
DOWN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SE CT/E LI THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT
NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM
AS IT HAS OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. HIGHEST POPS OVER LONG ISLAND
AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
EASTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE SLOWER IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.

   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS IMPROVING THIS
EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT...THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGION...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE DOWNSLOPING SIDE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE...IT IS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS SEEN IN BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...AS WELL AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40
MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAINFALL LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING...A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THANKS TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL WILL
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW IS PUSHING AN
ENHANCED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO LEWIS COUNTY...FROM EAST TO WEST...AND THIS WESTWARD
PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL BACK OUT TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SHARP CUT-OFF IN CLOUD COVER REMAINS
IN PLACE NEAR ROCHESTER...WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST AND OVERCAST
SKIES TO THE EAST. THIS CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW IS PUSHING AN
ENHANCED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO LEWIS COUNTY...FROM EAST TO WEST...AND THIS WESTWARD
PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL BACK OUT TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SHARP CUT-OFF IN CLOUD COVER REMAINS
IN PLACE NEAR ROCHESTER...WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST AND OVERCAST
SKIES TO THE EAST. THIS CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KOKX 231919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS
OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY
BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231919
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD MOTION TO NE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A LITTLE LATE AT NIGHT.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR WEST FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM AS IT HAS
OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS...HIGHEST OVER LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH THE RAINFALL THREAT
ENDING WEST OF THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A SHOWER IN SPOTS OVER CT AND EASTERN
LI FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE....DRY ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL BE GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF. CLOUDS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND. CLOSER TO OUR REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. STRONG
NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH
20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THE MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL
MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
CEILINGS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE FROM MVFR TO VFR...WITH CEILINGS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 TO 3500 FT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY
BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A TIGHT NW GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231917
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 PM EDT UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
IT`S ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH OF NEW YORK. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA...
HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. THIS IS DUE TO CAA AND THE FETCH OVER THE LAKE
RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED SHOWERS.

THE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK RIDDING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RISING INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 60S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORM WHICH WILL AID TO THE NICE FALL WE HAVE HAD SO FAR.
WEDNESDAY FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE NICE WEATHER MAY EXTEND FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK AS EACH GUIDANCE RUN HINTS THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE EAST SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231814
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COME TO AN END
TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. FAIR WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE DRG THE DAY TMRW AS CYCLONIC FLOW RELAXES.
HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE WEST BY AFTN WITH SKIES CLRNG RAPIDLY AFT
18Z. DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES HIPRES, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/U 50S THRU THE DAY. BRIEF S/WV RIDGING WL OCCUR AT UPR LVLS WITH
HGTS ON THE RISE.

SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP LATE FRI NGT AS UPR LVL SYSTEM APPCHS
EASTERN CANADA AND SPREADS HIGH CIRRUS IN BY 12Z SAT. OVRNGT LOWS WL
BE COOLER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THEREFORE
HV GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR FRI NGT LOWS.

MED RANGE MODELS HV COME IN SLOWER WITH WK SFC TROF AND EVENTUAL
PCPN EXPECTED OVR THE WEEKEND. BRIEF RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD ON AND
DRY AIRMASS WL BE PREVALENT THRU MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS
INDICATING UPGLIDE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFT 18Z SAT ACRS THE NORTH AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 21Z.

HV RETAINED CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AS AREA IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NW
FLOW. TEMPS WL LKLY MODERATE TO NR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 231759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231735
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KALY 231735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND
OF SHOWERS PIVOTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO EXPECTING LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FORECAST
A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OBS.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF VFR CEILINGS
BRIEFLY UNTIL AFTER 20Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR
OR HIGH END MVFR...AROUND 30K FT. STEADY RAIN ACROSS NEW JERSEY
TERMINALS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG LIKELY. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED 23Z TO 03Z.

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC










000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
106 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231706
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
106 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DURING THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH...15 TO 20 KT...WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL
FLOODING STATEMENT FOR SPOTS ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND NOW THAT THE WINDS
HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC










000
FXUS61 KOKX 231438
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...FOCUSED MORE TOWARD
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DURING THE BALANCE OF
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME. PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH...15 TO 20 KT...WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A COASTAL
FLOODING STATEMENT FOR SPOTS ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF TOUCHING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND NOW THAT THE WINDS
HAVE BEEN NORTHERLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC










000
FXUS61 KBUF 231432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 231356
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
956 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
955 AM UPDATE...
SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE AS YESTERDAY AS COASTAL STORM CONTS TO
SPIN SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MRNG. LIGHT RAIN HAS MADE IT INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THAT THIS WL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THRU THIS EVNG BFR UPR LOW GETS THE BOOT. EXPECTING A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN PCPN ACRS CNTRL AND WRN SXNS OF CWA TDA AS 1025MB SFC
HIPRES IS SETTLED ACRS THE CORN BELT AND WL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THIS
AFTN. HV CONFINED MAJORITY OF POPS TO EAST OF I-81 THO CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER ACRS THE FINGER LKS THIS AFTN AND HV ADJUSTED
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO BE STUCK
IN THE 40S IN RAIN AREA. LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
WRN ZONES NOT EVEN APPCHG 50 FOR HIGHS AND PLAN TO WAIT ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HRS BFR LOWERING MAXES AS THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAR-
FETCHED TO ME.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TODAY PER LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN VT INTO THE DACKS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SLV. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A
BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE
SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD
RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE
SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN A CONTINUED 40-45 KNOT
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2 KFT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KALY 231131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231112
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA
ACROSS EASTERN LI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MEANDER TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN IS FORECAST...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KBTV 231110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TODAY PER LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN VT INTO THE DACKS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SLV. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A
BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO
THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE
SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD
RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE
SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBGM 231100
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. CIGS AT FUEL ALT MVFR KAVP-KITH-KBGM
GRADUALLY LIFTING TO HIGHER END MVFR...OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KBGM PROBABLY DIPPING BACK TO FUEL ALT MVFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT BUT
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. WINDS
NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS...THEN BACKING AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 231046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231017
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
617 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS IN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
COASTAL CT...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 6
AM. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KOKX 231017
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
617 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN BELOW ADVSY LEVELS IN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
COASTAL CT...THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 6
AM. GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBUF 230949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
549 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
549 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
08Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM WAS INITIALLY WORST IN REGARDS
TO IFR CIG...BUT DRIER AIR IS JUST STARTING TO WORK IN AT LOW
LEVELS WHICH HAS LIFTED THE CIG. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF
FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-KITH-KBGM. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP.
KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING
DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230943
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
543 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO NEAR TERM GRIDS WITH GIST OF FCST
UNCHANGED. PREV BLO...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST
AREA TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN ZONES
TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES THIS
AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO LOW
CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
08Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM WAS INITIALLY WORST IN REGARDS
TO IFR CIG...BUT DRIER AIR IS JUST STARTING TO WORK IN AT LOW
LEVELS WHICH HAS LIFTED THE CIG. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF
FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-KITH-KBGM. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP.
KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING
DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 230831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV












000
FXUS61 KOKX 230829
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS STILL GUSTING AT OR CLOSE TO ADVSY CRITERIA IN SUFFOLK AND
COASTAL CT FROM NEW HAVEN E SO WILL KEEP ADVSY GOING THROUGH 10Z.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CAN`T RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA ACROSS
EASTERN LI EARLY THIS MORNING.

GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY
WON`T BE AS STRONG AS LAST EVENING. GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS 30-40 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING.

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO LOW AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI.

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN TERMINAL FORECASTS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TODAY.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN
TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR THE SOUND...HARBOR AND
BAYS...AND THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS THEN EXPECTED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS ONCE GALES
SUBSIDE AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN EXPECTED ON FRI.

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
AFTER THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KBUF 230817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER EARLY
MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER EARLY
MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 230806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS
TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS
TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 230747
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA
TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN
ZONES TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES
THIS AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
08Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM WAS INITIALLY WORST IN REGARDS
TO IFR CIG...BUT DRIER AIR IS JUST STARTING TO WORK IN AT LOW
LEVELS WHICH HAS LIFTED THE CIG. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF
FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-KITH-KBGM. PERSISTENT FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP.
KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING.
WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14 KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING
DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230656
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

UPR LOW OFF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA
TDA AND TNGT. SYSTEM WILL SPIN BANDS OF RAIN INTO ERN
ZONES TDA...WHILE WRN ZONES (STEUBEN/YATES) MAY FLIRT WITH PS SKIES
THIS AFTN. IN ANY EVENT...CAT POPS ERN ZONES TDA...DROPPING OFF TO
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE WEST WHERE SOME -SHRA COULD MIGRATE WWD INTO
THIS AREA THIS AFTN. POPS SLOWLY DCRS TNGT FROM W TO E AS LOW
SLOWLY MOVS AWAY. NRLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM TO BE WORST IN REGARDS
TO CIG WITH PERSISTENT IFR...LIFTING INTO FUEL ALT REQ MVFR BY
LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-
KITH...AND EVEN AT TIMES IFR KITH LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT
FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT
TIMES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14
KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY
GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230603
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
203 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
COASTAL LOW HAS LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS NOW
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER/INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES AND RECEDING SOUTHWARD. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...
EXPECT EVEN THESE LATTER AREAS TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPING GIVEN ALREADY NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

MEANWHILE...FURTHER EAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER IS FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE COASTAL
SYSTEM...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT LEAST SOME AGAIN ACROSS THIS
REGION AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING LEWIS COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. TOMORROW
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER FARTHER WESTWARD
50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH 12-13Z THURSDAY...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL LINGER THROUGH
12Z-13Z THURSDAY GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...AND THE SYSTEM IS BIG ENOUGH TO THE POINT
THAT OUR TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND IT...SCT -SHRA AS WELL
EXCEPT FOR KITH-KELM. HILLTOP TERMINAL KBGM TO BE WORST IN REGARDS
TO CIG WITH PERSISTENT IFR...LIFTING INTO FUEL ALT REQ MVFR BY
LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF FUEL ALT MVFR KELM-
KITH...AND EVEN AT TIMES IFR KITH LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT
FUEL ALT MVFR FOR KAVP. KRME-KSYR INITIALLY VFR BUT SETTLING INTO
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INCLUDING SOME FUEL ALT REQ MVFR KSYR AT
TIMES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS STEADY OUT OF NNW TO NW 8-14
KTS...GUSTING 18-22 KTS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...KELM ALREADY
GUSTY DUE TO LOCALIZED CHANNELING DOWN THE VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 230548
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
148 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
05Z OBS STILL INDICATING SEVERAL LOCATIONS GUSTING AT OR CLOSE TO
WIND ADVSY CRITERIA...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVSY FOR
SUFFOLK AND COASTAL CT FROM NEW HAVEN EAST UNTIL 6AM AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE WIND GRIDS. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
AND TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MEANDER S OF LONG
ISLAND TONIGHT. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN
THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TODAY...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS THEY MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AS THIS STORM HAS
BEEN RATHER IMPRESSIVE. TIMING ANY STORMS THOUGH IS TOUGH...AND
CANNOT BE INCLUDED IN TAFS. PLEASE REFER TO TERMINAL FORECAST
AMENDMENTS FOR SPECIFICS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG ONTO
LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING.

WINDS REMAINS QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAINS GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SPEEDS 15
TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND NYC
TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...AND FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TODAY. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND AROUND 1/2 INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 230544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 230543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 230330
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS LOW EXITING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA. AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
EVENTUALLY PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER
CIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT JHW. ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VWP SHOWS 45 KT
WINDS AT 2K FT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS IN THE ART TAF. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230254
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1054 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCE.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...VARIABLE TO VFR
IN PLACES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED POCKETS IFR POSSIBLE
IN HEAVY RAINFALL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS DURATION IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO
REFLECT IN TAFS...OUTSIDE OF AMENDMENTS.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT INTO AT LEAST
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE AT EASTERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS. PEAK GUSTS COULD BE AS
MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230246
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ
COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY
23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE
EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE
THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CLIPPING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 01Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS REACHED ROC/JHW...AND RAISED CIGS TO MVFR AT THESE
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT JHW. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CLIPPING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 01Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS REACHED ROC/JHW...AND RAISED CIGS TO MVFR AT THESE
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT JHW. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF
VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS INITIALLY NEAR SOUTH SHORES OF CT/LONG
ISLAND/NYC TO GET STARTED. DO EXPECT WINDS AT OTHER TERMINALS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD
BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 230040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. LATEST SAT WV IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SLOT PUNCHING IN TOWARD MONTAUK HELPING TO ENHANCE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY...WITH LINE OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS
WITH GRAVITY WAVE LIKE APPEARANCE S OF MONTAUK AND MOVING NW
TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. CONVECTION IS ELEVATED
BUT DUCTING OF GRAVITY WAVE ENERGY JUST N OF THE APPROACHING
OCCLUDED FRONT COULD ALLOW VERY STRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE
THERE...AND WE ARE MONITORING RADAR FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WARNING
ISSUANCES.

ELSEWHERE...BANDS OF LIGHT./MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS AND PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...REMAINING MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIR MASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH...THEN EAST OF LONG
ISLAND INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED POCKETS
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND ITS
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POCKETS OF
VFR POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS ALSO NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

WINDS SLOWLY BACK FROM NNE TO NNW-NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS INITIALLY NEAR SOUTH SHORES OF CT/LONG
ISLAND/NYC TO GET STARTED. DO EXPECT WINDS AT OTHER TERMINALS TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING. GENERALLY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT
INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK GUSTS COULD
BE AS MUCH AS 10KT HIGHER AS THOSE FORECAST IN THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
VARIABLE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND SPEED/GUST SPEED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. NW
WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL/CITY TERMINALS.
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY MVFR. NW WINDS
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. W WINDS G20-25KT
POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW WINDS
G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...
REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE WINDS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AND THE 18Z NAM AND
OTHER HI-RES MODELS ARE CAPTURING THE SITUATION WELL....INCLUDING
BRIEF EPISODE OF WINDS NEAR 50 KT OVER THE FAR ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL WATERS...AND FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU AFTERNOON.

SCA LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS ON THU. AS THE
LOW PULLS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/JM
HYDROLOGY...MET/JM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 230026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
826 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
820 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM AS WV IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS A
BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKING INLAND THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY
TOWARD OUR EASTERN FA.

LIKELY POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE FAR EASTERN FA. POPS
LOWER TO CHANCE AS ONE APPROACHES THE I-81 CORRIDOR.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES AS THE CENTRAL SO TIER HAS COOLED
BELOW PLAN.


1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 222357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 222357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. IN GENERAL CIGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MVFR AT
KRME/KSYR WITH LOW MVFR OVER THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KITH/KELM/KAVP) WITH IFR AT KBGM. AT KITH, CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY
BE IFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. AS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THIS WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE
MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KELM/KAVP.

N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY AT 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 222345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PERIODICALLY
CLIP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN DRY.
AT 700 PM...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MOST OF
THE QPF TO OUR EAST...OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 23Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THIS DRIER AIR REACHES JHW...WITH
FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT DEPENDING HOW
PERSISTENT LOW MOISTURE REMAINS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ON THURSDAY AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY MIXES IN. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
PERIODIC BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 222332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 222014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
IS ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN PRETTY MUCH CLOUDY SKIES
EVERYWHERE. THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTIONS -- THANKS TO SOME
DOWNSLOPING, THERE WERE PEEKS OF SUN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN GREENS. SOME DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW BREAKS UP THERE AS WELL, AT LEAST PER SATELLITE
IMAGES. HOWEVER, DEEPER/COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS
RAIN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF HERE.
ALL 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT EVENTUALLY THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE POP FIELDS, I TRIED TO DEPICT THIS
INCREASE OF POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. IN FACT, OUT IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN ALL THAT MUCH TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS,
AND THEY WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. DID FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRENDS TO GO WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE SO LOOK FOR 40S
FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. JUST TOO WARM ALOFT AS WELL FOR ANY
SNOW AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY THE LOW/MID 30S AT
WHITEFACE AND MANSFIELD, AND EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST FLOW ADVECTS IN WARMER ATLANTIC AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 222011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM NEARLY
STACKED THE SURFACE LOW ALSO OFF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE
INCREASING POPS FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES FALL OFF
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIRMASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO 3 KFT.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH GALE GUSTS CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET







000
FXUS61 KALY 222000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES/DELMARVA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH A SURFACE
LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH. SPIRALING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
DISPLAY A PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THEN THE ATLANTIC RISING NORTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE HILLS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

EXPECT THE BETTER HALF OF TONIGHT TO REMAIN DRY. THE STREAMING
MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS STILL WELL TO OUR EAST...AND
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT THAT AN EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THIS STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE WHAT TRANSPORTS MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS WESTWARD. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON A DEVELOPING TROWEL SIGNATURE TONIGHT
OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS...INSTEAD FOCUSING THE RAIN AND INCREASING
WARMTH ALOFT MORE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
LIKEWISE BACK OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MUCH LOWER
CHANCES OF THE RAIN BEING AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY BY DAWN.
AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

THE COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SOCK THE
HILLS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE FORESEE THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH THE POOREST VISIBILITIES FOUND ON HILL TOPS...AND
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE VALLEYS.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT SOME VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE COULD BE FOUND TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF WNY...TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE
LAKES...AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS ALOFT WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 40. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OVER LAKE ONTARIO
WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS ALL LAKE
ZONES...AND FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFTS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF TONIGHT.

ON LAKE ERIE THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST WAVES
TOWARDS THE TOLEDO END OF THE LAKE...AND SUCH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221928
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 221850
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAVE RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS, COOL AIR AND PERIODS OF RAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
DROPPING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE...
STORM SYSTEM WL PINWHEEL ARND CAPE COD TOMORROW CONTG TO THROW RAIN
BACK TWD THE AREA IN STRONG ERLY FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY WV THAT PASSES THRU THE AREA WL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN DRG THE DAY BUT FOR NOW HV CONTD WITH LKLY-CATEGORICAL
POPS EAST OF I-81 WITH JUST SCTD POPS RMNDR OF THE AREA. DOWNGLIDE
ON 295K LYR LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINANT FOR FINGER LKS REGION AFT 18Z
TOMORROW. TEMPS WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GO ANYWHERE TOMORROW AND HV
GONE WITH A GMOS/MET NUMBER COMPROMISE, GNRLY HIGHS U40S/NR 50.

UPR LOW WL BEGIN TO FEEL A KICKER MV IN LATE TOMORROW NGT TO BEGIN
LESSENING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. AS IT HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI MRNG SHOWERS WL QUICKLY DWINDLE THUR NGT FM SW TO NE.

HIPRES WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN DRG THE AFTN HRS ON FRIDAY BUT COASTAL
LOW WL STILL HV ENUF OF AN IMPACT TO KEEP MCLDY SKIES UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTN. THUS HV GONE MUCH LWR THAN GUIDANCE AND NOT EXPECTING
HIGHS TO MAKE MUCH OF A RUN AT 60F EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN
WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. THINK THAT MAXES WL GNRLY TOP OUT IN THE
M50S ON FRIDAY.

CYCLONIC FLOW DOES NOT EASE UNTIL LATE FRI NGT WITH A WEST WIND
SETTING IN BY 06Z. EXPECT FRI NGT TO BE PCPN-FREE AS WE WL BE
BRIEFLY UNDER RIDGE AXIS. AFOREMENTIONED TROF WL SWING THRU SRN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND BRING CHC FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA DRG THE DAY ON
SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVF
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 221800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LITTLE RETURNS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER WHERE A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE.
WITH THE LAKE ERIE EASTERN BUOYS DISPLAYING WAVES 2 FEET OR
LESS...WILL EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR LAKE ERIE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LITTLE RETURNS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER WHERE A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE.
WITH THE LAKE ERIE EASTERN BUOYS DISPLAYING WAVES 2 FEET OR
LESS...WILL EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR LAKE ERIE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY. AS THIS DRIFTS TO THE EAST... RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER RISE TO MVFR OR VFR THIS AFTERNOON... THEN
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR
OR BELOW. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT KELM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VISBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR WITH THESE SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL START OFF AS NORTHERLY
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN
AROUND 12 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...KAH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 221756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO
3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 221756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW WERE
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS WEAKENING
AND MOVING SOUTH WHILE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING NORTH INTO EASTERN
LONG. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE LOW. CLOUDS PERSIST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY STEADY...AND DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE TO FORECAST.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AS
TRACKS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS THE
FURTHEST N TODAY AND BECOMES THE FURTHEST W AND SLOWEST TO DEPART
ON THU.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT AND FRI AS IT
MEANDERS NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. BEST CHC`S OF RAIN WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BAND PUSHES FROM
E TO W OVERNIGHT...THEN WEAKENS IN THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER VORT
MAX PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THU AFTN. THEREFORE HAVE LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVE...THEN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS THIS AFTN AND EVE.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THU WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV/ECS AS THE NAM
LOOKED TOO COLD WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW APPROXIMATELY 130 MILES SE OF MONTAUK
POINT THURSDAY EVENING MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF NYC
AS UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO DEPART.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SAGGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THAT FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THINK
MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH DRY...BUT THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF INDICATING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TOPPING OFF IN THE
LOWER 60S...AND THEN WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S. BEHIND COLD FRONT...TEMPS DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO
3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN MAY APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK. POPS ACROSS THE WATERS ADJUSTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

A GALE WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 18Z THIS AFTN THROUGH
10Z TONIGHT REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OFFSHORE AND BELIEVE FREQ 35 KT GUSTS WILL
RESULT. THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ERN LI SOUND
AND BAYS...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE IN FRQ 35 KT GUSTS
HERE. NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON REMAINING WATERS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY THU.

GUSTY N-NW FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONDS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SCA CONDS AND SUB-SCA CONDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN NW
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT ON SUNDAY WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...AND TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING DUE TO A BACKBUILDING STORM OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S AND E THIS MORNING
WITH SCT ACTIVITY LIKELY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BASIN AVG RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3/4 ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS TO 1 1/2 INCHES IN EASTERN AREAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THU EVE.

MAINLY EXPECT NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER THE ACTIVITY ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ABOUT
1/10 INCH OF ADDITIONAL QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS







000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROAD E-SE
FLOW AROUND THIS STACKED STORM SYSTEM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS
JUST ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...MAINLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROAD E-SE
FLOW AROUND THIS STACKED STORM SYSTEM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS
JUST ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...MAINLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REASON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT IS THAT AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS FEATURE MOVES DOWN ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUS ONLY A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 221701
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 221701
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE MOIST UPPER LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUR
REGION WILL BE STUCK WITHIN ITS REACH NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
STUBBORN CLOUDS...COOL AIR...AND PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING WELL-DEFINED UPR LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OFF THE
VA CAPES AS OF 16Z. PROBLEM IS THE SFC LOW IS ALSO SITTING OFF THE
VA CAPES AND HAS BCM STACKED. THIS SYSTEM WL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. THE QUESTION BCMS HOW FAR BACK TO
THE NW WL IT SUCCEED IN SPREADING RAINFALL. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH SFC LOPRES AT 12Z BUT NAM HAS TRENDED NORTH WITH MVMNT AS
OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE LOW WOBBLES
ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. MODEL TRENDS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING
THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WL RMN JUST TO OUR EAST ACRS THE HUDSON VLY
UNTIL WELL AFT 06Z TONIGHT. THUS HV BACKED OFF ON POPS DRG THE
OVRNGT HRS WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO FAR ERN ZONES
UNTIL AFT 06Z.

THUS HV CONFINED LKLY POPS TO THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST.
THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF WV OF RAIN COMING
THRU AT SOME POINT OVRNGT AS MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING
ARND 09Z TONIGHT AS S/WV RETROGRADES ACRS CWA. HWVR THIS CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-TERM UPDATES THIS EVNG.

MIN TEMPS WL LKLY BE IN THE L/M 40S TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING TOO COOL FOR OVRNGT LOWS, THUS HV BOOSTED TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
STRONG EASTERLY 850MB JET THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESIDE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...REACHING A WAYS INTO OUR REGION. WE SHOULD THUS STILL
SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS IN OUR WESTERN CATSKILLS...SHIFTING TOWARDS
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA TO WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY ZONES WITH TIME. IN
REGARDS TO AREAL AVERAGE QPF...EXPECTING ANOTHER THIRD TO HALF
INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS ON THURSDAY ALONE...TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES...EASTERLY 850MB JET BACKS WITH INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
COMPONENT...AND IN FACT EVEN NORTH- NORTHWEST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO TAKE MORE OF A CIRCUITOUS ROUTE AS
TIME MARCHES ON...WITH INCREASINGLY CONTINENTAL COMPONENT AT LOWER
LEVELS. SO WHILE SHOWERS WILL STILL CONTINUE...ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD LESSEN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...GFS AND TO LESSER DEGREE ECMWF START TO LET GO OF THE
AREA...BUT NAM IS SLOWER WITH EXIT OF UPPER LOW AND SO HAS
VORTICITY SPOKE PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE SHOWERS. AT THIS
TIME I HAVE ELECTED FOR 40-50 POPS ACROSS NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR BUT
ONLY LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TWIN TIERS SOUTHWARD.

DAMPNESS-CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE SUPPRESS DIURNAL RANGE FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOWER 40S BY NIGHT AND UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S THURSDAY /MAINLY 50S FRIDAY/.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS LONG SLOG OF AN EVENT...FROM TODAY
/WEDNESDAY/ THROUGH FRIDAY WE HAVE AREAL AVERAGES FROM SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER NY-WYOMING VALLEY
PA...TO BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE INCH OR SO IN WESTERN
CATSKILLS-NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR-ITHACA-CORTLAND-OWEGO-BINGHAMTON-
MONTROSE-HONESDALE-MILFORD. SPREAD OUT OVER SO MUCH TIME...WE DO
NOT AT ALL ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD-TYPE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW WL BE SPINNING OFF OF THE CAPE COD COAST AT THE START OF
THE EXTNDD. THIS WL KEEP LGT PCPN IN ACRS THE AREA BFR SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE NRN
ZONES SAT INTO SAT NGT WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER. AFT THIS WV
MVS EAST, HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AFT CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FRI NGT. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABV NORMAL
VALUES AS HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. OVERALL...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR XPCTD THRU THE FCST PD. AT
RME...SUGGESTIONS THAT BRIEF PDS OF VFR WILL BE PSBL DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL AIR AND DOWNSLOPING DUE TO NE WINDS. LATER
TDA XPCT IFR/MVFR TO BCM RE-ESTABLISHED. ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL
NY...CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY BLO AT MINS THIS MRNG BEFORE POTNL
IMPRVMNT TO MVFR LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. AT AVP...MVFR XPCTD TO
PREVAIL. BEST CHC FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE AT BGM AND AVP EARLY
THIS MRNG...WITH -SHRA BECMG MORE WDPSRD BY EARLY EVENING AS
ENHANCED MSTR MVS IN FROM THE EAST. NNE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
NRLY 10-15 KTS TDA AND NNW 10-20 KTS TNGT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR
CIGS/-SHRA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
IFR AT TIMES.

SAT...BECOMING VFR THOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...







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