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000
FXUS61 KOKX 010733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
333 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN CANADA WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA ANCHORED TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE NORTH
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL SET OFF
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THESE WILL STAY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC WHERE MU CAPE RANGES ROM 1500-2000 J/KG EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
STORMS BUT SOME COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH THE LIGHT SSW WINDS THROUGH THE LAYER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS.

KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WE ACTUALLY SEE ANY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOCUSED MORE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

NAM/MET GUIDANCE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SW FLOW WARMING INTERIOR
AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE THAN COASTAL LOCATIONS. 13-14C 850 TEMPS LEND TO
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH GUIDANCE AND LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET WITH WANING INSTABILITY AND THE SHORTWAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH.

NEXT FOCUS OF RAIN WILL BE THE COLD FRONT BACKING IN FROM THE EAST
WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
PRECIP WILL REACH THE AREA WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST AND DRIEST FOR
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHEAST CT WITH THE FRONT POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THOUGH AS SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT. AS WELL...DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BE IN PLACE SO ANY SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY THUNDER FOR SATURDAY. LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY OR SHEAR...JUST MODERATE LIFT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE VERY
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
WIND PROFILES ALOFT ARE AGAIN LIGHT SO TRAINING OF CELLS IS LIKELY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NAM 2M TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT EVEN WITH SIMILAR CLOUD COVER FORECASTS. WENT WITH A
BLEND OF MAV/MOSGUIDE FOR LOWS FOR TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SAT IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS. POSSIBLY DUE TO
THE MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR A RAINY DAY. WILL LOWER HIGHS A
FEW DEG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AT THE BASE OF A 500MB TROUGH AXIS AS IT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP SLOWLY NUDGE THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK IN THE VICINITY. LESS CERTAIN ARE
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT PASS
THROUGH/NEARBY THE CWA BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PASSES THROUGH.
POPS THEREFORE CAPPED AT CHANCE...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT A MODEL
BLEND WOULD PRODUCE. BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAINFALL WOULD BE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOSER THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MONDAY COULD EVEN TURN OUT TO BE COMPLETELY
DRY...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND A LACK OF LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TRAILING IT ON MONDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS
ALTOGETHER ON MONDAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT
CHC/CHC POPS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROBABLY KEEPS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DRY...BUT A
COLD FRONT AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTM TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

CLOUDS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS OTHERWISE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE A WEAK FRONT AND
WAVE APPROACH FROM THE SE LATE TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY N&W OF NYC TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND LIKELY AT KEWR/KTEB.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDS IN SHRA
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE.
LOW PROB FOR TSRA.
.SUN-SUN NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR
DRAINING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

A SIMILAR SET UP EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS
MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CELLS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY...THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT
MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/LN
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/LN/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/LN









000
FXUS61 KOKX 010608
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE A WEAK FRONT AND
WAVE APPROACH FROM THE SE LATE TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY N&W OF NYC METRO.
ELSEWHERE LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND LIKELY AT KEWR/KTEB.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDS IN SHRA
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE.
LOW PROB FOR TSRA.
.SUN-SUN NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS






000
FXUS61 KOKX 010608
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
208 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY...WHILE A WEAK FRONT AND
WAVE APPROACH FROM THE SE LATE TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY N&W OF NYC METRO.
ELSEWHERE LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND LIKELY AT KEWR/KTEB.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDS IN SHRA
ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT...SHRA LIKELY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE.
LOW PROB FOR TSRA.
.SUN-SUN NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS
POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS






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000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. SOME FOG
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE OR
SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING...HAVE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT/LATE. FOG AND ANY STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. WHILE ALOFT...THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO MENTION IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE SO
LOW. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD SINCE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE STREAMING IN.

LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 010606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. SOME FOG
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE OR
SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING...HAVE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT/LATE. FOG AND ANY STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. WHILE ALOFT...THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO MENTION IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE SO
LOW. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD SINCE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE STREAMING IN.

LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY
MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 010547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED...MAINLY TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY KPBG...MOST DENSE AT
KSLK AND KMPV DOWN TO VLIFR 06-08Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED...MAINLY TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY KPBG...MOST DENSE AT
KSLK AND KMPV DOWN TO VLIFR 06-08Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED...MAINLY TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY KPBG...MOST DENSE AT
KSLK AND KMPV DOWN TO VLIFR 06-08Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED...MAINLY TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KMPV AND POSSIBLY KPBG...MOST DENSE AT
KSLK AND KMPV DOWN TO VLIFR 06-08Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 010544
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WHILE FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY
BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE BULK OF WRN NEW YORK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING ON
EAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN
TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010544
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WHILE FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY
BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVER THE BULK OF WRN NEW YORK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING ON
EAST OF LK ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN
TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 010541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WE REMAIN UNDER THE UPR TROF BUT WITH JUST SOME ISLTD SHWRS ARND
ATTM. OTRW...MAINLY CLR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DVLP
BRINGING IFR CONDS TO ELM...AND PTCHY MVFR ELSEWHERE. RATHER QUIET
TODAY AFT SUNRISE...BUT A WV MVG NEWRD IN THE TROF SHD DVLP SOME
SHWRS OVER AVP LATE...AND CONTG INTO TNGT. LOOKS LIKE THE SHWRS
WILL BE LGT ENUF GOT CONTD VFR OR MVFR CONDS AT AVP THRU THE END
OF THE PD. VFR ELSEWHERE.


OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY
FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010530
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED...MAINLY TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010530
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 129 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A FEW CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION...AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS NEEDED...MAINLY TO LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST A
BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE MOMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KOKX 010425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE
S/SE MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 010425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE
S/SE MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...LN/MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 010328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1128 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THE 00Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS DRY BELOW 10K FEET AND
THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED QUITE A BIT SINCE SUNSET...BUT IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SPRINKLES AFTER ABOUT 1 AM. IF
NOTHING ELSE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
BULK OF WRN NEW YORK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING ON EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHERN TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1128 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
A CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THE 00Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS DRY BELOW 10K FEET AND
THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED QUITE A BIT SINCE SUNSET...BUT IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SPRINKLES AFTER ABOUT 1 AM. IF
NOTHING ELSE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
BULK OF WRN NEW YORK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HOLDING ON EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHERN TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







000
FXUS61 KOKX 010246
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NW ZONES PER MESO MODELS...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KALY 010246
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THE PATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SHOULD EXPAND E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 50-55
RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 010246
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THE PATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SHOULD EXPAND E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 50-55
RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 010246
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THE PATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SHOULD EXPAND E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 50-55
RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 010246
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1046 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THE PATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SHOULD EXPAND E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 50-55
RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 010245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM EDT FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THE PATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SHOULD EXPAND E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 50-55
RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 010245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM EDT FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1040 PM EDT...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. OTHERWISE...PATCHY CLOUDS ARE LINGERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. THE PATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY SHOULD EXPAND E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN MOST AREAS REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SO...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT MINS BY A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCALES...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 55-60 RANGE FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 50-55
RANGE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOTED EARLIER HAS COME TO AN END SO DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN COLDER/MORE SHELTERED
AREAS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCALES. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOTED EARLIER HAS COME TO AN END SO DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN COLDER/MORE SHELTERED
AREAS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCALES. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOTED EARLIER HAS COME TO AN END SO DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN COLDER/MORE SHELTERED
AREAS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCALES. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOTED EARLIER HAS COME TO AN END SO DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S IN COLDER/MORE SHELTERED
AREAS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD
BET...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOCALES. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION FROM OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE OUR REGION
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT
PUSHES EAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHERN TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
952 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION FROM OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE OUR REGION
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT
PUSHES EAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES. THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHERN TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENTLE TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RECREATIONAL BOATERS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND
ONLY MNIOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AN POPS TO CARRY US INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LOOKING AT AN ESSENTIALLY DRY AND CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ON TAP
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...LOCALLY MILDER NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET ALMOST ANYWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRIOR DICUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY
DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE WARNING BASED ON RADAR
INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE
THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
(43 MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND
ONLY MNIOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AN POPS TO CARRY US INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LOOKING AT AN ESSENTIALLY DRY AND CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ON TAP
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...LOCALLY MILDER NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET ALMOST ANYWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRIOR DICUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY
DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE WARNING BASED ON RADAR
INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE
THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
(43 MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND
ONLY MNIOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AN POPS TO CARRY US INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LOOKING AT AN ESSENTIALLY DRY AND CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ON TAP
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...LOCALLY MILDER NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET ALMOST ANYWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRIOR DICUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY
DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE WARNING BASED ON RADAR
INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE
THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
(43 MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND
ONLY MNIOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AN POPS TO CARRY US INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LOOKING AT AN ESSENTIALLY DRY AND CLEAR/PTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ON TAP
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...LOCALLY MILDER NEAR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET ALMOST ANYWHERE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRIOR DICUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY
DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE WARNING BASED ON RADAR
INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE
THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
(43 MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF






000
FXUS61 KALY 312353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...ONLY SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS REMAIN FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS SE VT...NW CT...AND ALSO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXIST. PATCHY CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY LINGER FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...SE VT...AND ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION.

LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY CLEAR. THE CLEARING
SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S WITH SOME U40S TO L50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...AND L50S OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 312353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...ONLY SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS REMAIN FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS SE VT...NW CT...AND ALSO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXIST. PATCHY CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY LINGER FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...SE VT...AND ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION.

LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY CLEAR. THE CLEARING
SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S WITH SOME U40S TO L50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...AND L50S OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KOKX 312349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE LOCATION
IS LOW.

LIGHT S TO SW WIND AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS TONIGHT. WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S
MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 17Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHRA
AND ISOLD TSTMS.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 312338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LAST OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED
AND/OR MOVED OUR THE AREA...LEAVING A QUIET VFR NIGHT AHEAD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS KELM AND
PERHAPS KRME. LACK OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING
TO PROMOTE VALLEY FOG FORMATION AT KELM ESPECIALLY 08Z-12Z. NEAR
SURFACE LAYER AT KRME ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TO GET NEAR
SATURATION...AND THUS SOME MIST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...YET THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT WORSE-THAN-MVFR VIS DUE TO
SOME MIXING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN AFTERNOON AROUND KAVP WITH THUNDER NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL
BUT ISOLATED AND THUS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME FOR SPECIFIC TERMINALS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT THIS TAF
PERIOD...VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SSW TO WSW 5-8
KTS DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ALSO...POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 312338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
738 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LAST OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED
AND/OR MOVED OUR THE AREA...LEAVING A QUIET VFR NIGHT AHEAD WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS KELM AND
PERHAPS KRME. LACK OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING
TO PROMOTE VALLEY FOG FORMATION AT KELM ESPECIALLY 08Z-12Z. NEAR
SURFACE LAYER AT KRME ALSO LOOKS LIKELY TO GET NEAR
SATURATION...AND THUS SOME MIST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...YET THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND JUST OFF THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT WORSE-THAN-MVFR VIS DUE TO
SOME MIXING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SCT
SHRA WILL DEVELOP IN AFTERNOON AROUND KAVP WITH THUNDER NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL
BUT ISOLATED AND THUS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME FOR SPECIFIC TERMINALS. WINDS TO BE LIGHT THIS TAF
PERIOD...VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SSW TO WSW 5-8
KTS DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-TUE...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ALSO...POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE
WARNING BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT
ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (43MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 312334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE
WARNING BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT
ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (43MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOG AT KSLK/KPBG/KMPV...MOST DENSE AT KSLK AND KMPV DOWN
TO VLIFR 04-06Z THROUGH 11-13Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBUF 312315
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
715 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE CAN BE ASSURED THAT WE WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
TRUE MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
AS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE WEAKENED...LEAVING LITTLE FORCING FOR
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHERMORE...THE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO STABILIZE WITH SBCAPES DIMINISHING
FROM AN AVERAGE OF 500 J/KG.

THAT BEING SAID...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR
MOVING IN OUR DIRECTION FROM OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
OUR REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
THESE VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THE PAST 60+ HOURS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SUBTLE HGT RISES OVER OUR REGION...
COUPLED WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...SHOULD PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THOUGH...MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHERN TIER.

H85 TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WILL CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 14C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE FAIR
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHES OF
IFR VSBYS IN FOG OVER THE SRN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS TOWARD THE
AREA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 312247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 312247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 312247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 312247
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
LAST REMNANTS OF SHOWERS SKIRTING THROUGH ONEIDA CNTY AS DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AND MLCAPES HAVE DIMINISHED BLO 250
JOULES. GUSTY SHOWERS WERE PRESENT IN THE PAST HR NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY THO CG AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS NON-EXISTENT.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS CLUSTER AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THRU. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL PCPN TO COME TO AN END
AFT 00Z. JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES TONIGHT. PATCHY VLY
FOG STILL ON TRACK TO DVLP TWD DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLR.

PREV DISCO BLO...

2 PM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DE-AMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 312040
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PA AND ARE
MOVING TOWARDS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH ML MUCAPE VALUES AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE LIFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE LIFTED INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO -2C.

SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT DO THINK THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE NJ...NYC...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ROM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY... AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LOW ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE A SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

S WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MAINLY
AT CITY TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH 23Z.
TIMING IN ONSET OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2
HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








000
FXUS61 KALY 312014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 PM EDT...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND AN H500 CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON IS IMPACTING THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
PRODUCED SOME QUARTER-SIZE HAIL IN SARATOGA CTY WITH A FEW DOWNED
TREES. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 250-750 J/KG
HAS LIMITED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DESPITE RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS. THE COLD
POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH H500 TEMPS OF -19C
OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS THE CELLULAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 6-8 PM. WE ENDED THE
POPS AROUND THAT TIME...WITH THE SKIES CLEARING...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S WITH SOME U40S TO L50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...AND L50S OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 312014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 PM EDT...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND AN H500 CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON IS IMPACTING THE FCST AREA WITH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
PRODUCED SOME QUARTER-SIZE HAIL IN SARATOGA CTY WITH A FEW DOWNED
TREES. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY 250-750 J/KG
HAS LIMITED MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DESPITE RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KTS. THE COLD
POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH H500 TEMPS OF -19C
OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS THE CELLULAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 6-8 PM. WE ENDED THE
POPS AROUND THAT TIME...WITH THE SKIES CLEARING...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH.

THE CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
RADITIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S WITH SOME U40S TO L50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...AND L50S OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE
WARNING BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT
ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (43MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANSIMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST
TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK
FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES
IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF
LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.

OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO.
ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER
DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES
SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T
ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE.

AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE
MENTION INTO TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311955
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE FROM FRIDAY,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, HOWEVER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...WELL, WE SEEMED TO HAVE MADE IT
THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT ANY DAMAGING STORMS. WE DID ISSUE ONE
WARNING BASED ON RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL, BUT WE NEVER GOT
ANY REPORTS. OTHERWISE THE STORMS PRODUCED GENERALLY MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH (43MPH RECORDED AT MONTPELIER) AND SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, SOME MINOR SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS DID FIRE UP. HOWEVER THEIR
APPEARANCE ON RADAR IS NOT ALL THAT BEEFY AND THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THEY WON`T BE LASTING LONG, ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO
AN AIRMASS THAT IS MORE STABLE. RECENT HRRR RUN SEEMED TO BE
HANDLING THINGS VERY WELL, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTTOM LINE, POP
VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE BY SUNSET -- MEANING ONLY A VERY FEW PEOPLE
WILL SEE ANY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THUS PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORMAL FOG
AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FORECAST -- THOUGH PERHAPS I
SHOULD HAVE HIT IT A LITTLE HARDER WITH THE "DENSE" WORDING??

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A BIT THROUGH 6PM IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLIER STORMS, BUT ULTIMATELY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S IN MOST PLACES. PROBABLY SOME 40S IN THE NORMAL ISOLATED COLD
SPOTS, BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHOULD ACTUALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS FAR AS THEY WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL WE WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW, MEANING A SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.

FRIDAY: NO DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANSIMS (I.E. SHORT WAVES OR
FRONTS), SO TERRAIN WILL BE THE DRIVING INFLUENCE. COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 12-13C, SO THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 80F
IN THE VALLEYS -- VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE JUST "GARDEN VARIETY" IN STRENGTH AND SHOULD FADE AWAY
JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG, THOUGH LOOKS LIKE SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS COULD LIMIT FOG COVERAGE. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG.

SATURDAY: GETTING A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROUGH WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND START TO FOCUS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DOWN THERE. A SKINNY
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY ON TOP OF US, HOWEVER WITH THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM
THAT COASTAL TROUGH. WHAT IT MEANS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A HIGHER CHANCE/BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND AND HAVE 40-60 POPS ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE RISING TO 1.3" OR A
LITTLE HIGHER. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE ORDINARY, BUT A SIGNAL THAT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.  A LITTLE TRICKY ON
THE TEMPERATURES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS MAY VERY WELL
OFFSET THINGS. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL UP AROUND 12-13C, SO WITH
FULL SUN WE ARE LOOKING AT UPPER 70S- LOWER 80S, HOWEVER WITH SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE CLOUDS, I HAVE
TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOOKS LIKE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH
FROM THAT COASTAL TROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. STILL THINK THE DIURNAL SIGNAL
WILL HOLD STRONG, SO NOT A LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE AROUND. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES A BIT
WARMER -- UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING
UP, SO A BIT OF A MUGGY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY. MODELS BRING PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...IN MOISTENING SW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW. THE AIR WILL NOT BE AS MOIST AND LESS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH MAXES REACHING THE M60S IN
THE MTNS TO U70S/L80S IN THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M50S IN THE MTNS TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS. BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WILL BE SEEN MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST
TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK
FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES
IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF
LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.

OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO.
ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER
DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES
SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T
ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE.

AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE
MENTION INTO TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 311947
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN
THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. COOL TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH MOIST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LAPSE RATES
ARE THE HIGHEST. LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PREVENT A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. COOL AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS AROUND 13C WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RUN MILD WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH AS
THE JET STREAM STRETCHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THIS PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD...ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HAVE
KEPT LOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN
THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN
THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN
THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN
THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA
COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 311904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PA AND ARE
MOVING TOWARDS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH ML MUCAPE VALUES AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE LIFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE LIFTED INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO -2C.

SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT DO THINK THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE NJ...NYC...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ROM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY... AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS APPEARED TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REMOVED TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AT KSWF. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS...THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT CITY TERMINALS...WITH A SEABREEZE COMPONENT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311904
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
304 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PA AND ARE
MOVING TOWARDS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH ML MUCAPE VALUES AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40 KT OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE LIFT IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE LIFTED INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO -2C.

SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT DO THINK THINK COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NE NJ...NYC...THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SW CT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ROM DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SE CT.

ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN/AROUND NYC...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. FAR NW PORTIONS OF
ORANGE COUNTY COULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY... AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SFC
DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS...CAN EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 20-30 KT...SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE TOO LONG
LIVED...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS...TOPPING OFF
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NYC/NE
NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE A
COASTAL FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S...WHICH IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS APPEARED TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REMOVED TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AT KSWF. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS...THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT CITY TERMINALS...WITH A SEABREEZE COMPONENT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...
WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMOUNG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DEAMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMOUNG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DEAMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMOUNG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DEAMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311859
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAK WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
SLIDE NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMOUNG THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS ON THIS
SCENARIO... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF BEING STRONGEST AND FARTHEST
WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE SHOWING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION MOVING UP THE COAST AND GETTING AT LEAST AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS NORTHEAST PA SATURDAY MORNING... WHILE THE GFS AND
NAM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE COASTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER ALL
MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NOW UNTIL
THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW AS MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1000
J/KG... AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 KTS.

AFTER A LULL SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA... AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
A BIT HIGHER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG AND A LITTLE MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE NAM IS NOW INDICATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF THIS COMBINES
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THIS THREAT STILL 3 DAYS AWAY
BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL WELL UNDER 50
PCT AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO... BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

MONDAY WE SHOULD BE BACK IN A BIT OF A LULL WITH POPS BACK DOWN TO
20 TO 30 PCT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING JUST TO OUR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A DEAMPLIFIED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NEAR FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGES WILL BE HARD TO TIME AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT THIS PATTERN
SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY POP FORECASTS NEAR 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 AND LOWS NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KALY 311814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH A
COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 135 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADITIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 311814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH A
COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 135 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADITIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 311814 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 311814 RRA
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KBGM 311805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EVOLVING CUMULUS LAYER WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. THERE WERE SOME AREAS WHERE THE CUMULUS WAS
CLUMPING AND FORMING ISLD SHRA. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK...MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
DIMINISHES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LVL SUBSDC DEVELOPS
A CAP ARND 15-20 KFT LATER TODAY. ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INSOLATION BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING CAP BTWN 15 AND 20 KFT THINK MOST OF THE ACVTY
WILL BE LIMITED IN ITS STRENGTH AND I DON/T SEE A LOT OF TSRA
FORMING. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AREAS WHERE ENUF MESOSCALE LIFTING
FROM TERRAIN AND/OR BOUNDARIES COULD BE ENUF TO PUSH ABV THE CAP
TO HIGH ENUF FOR SOME THUNDER. FOR GRIDS HAVE BASICALLY POPS
PEAKING IN THE 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND PASSES ALL CONVECTIVE ACVTY WILL RAPIDLY
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NEXT WAVE SEEN IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WAS MOVG INTO THE TENN AND LWR OH VLLY. THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS NORTHWARD TONIGHT REACHING NE PA
LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL FOG CHECKLIST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SO WILL ADD TO GRIDS BTWN 07-13Z AS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR FRIDAY...ABV MENTIONED SHRT WAVE GETS CAUGHT UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASES
CONFLUENCE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL INTENSIFY AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NRN ENGLAND WHICH WILL IN TURN SUPPORT LIFTG AND SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITH THE DAY/S HEATING MAINLY IN NE PA/CATSKILLS.
FARTHER N...THE PERSISTENT SWRLY FLOW AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY
SFC HI OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ADVECT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE
LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO PLAIN FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHC/S FOR
CONVECTION FRI PM WITH INSOLATION. SO HAVE CHC POPS NRN AND SRN
PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH SLGHT CHC IN THE MIDDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR SCT-BKN CUMULUS IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE AND WILL CONT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW ISLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA AROUND
BUT COVERAGE IS SPARSE ENUF TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AFTER
SUNSET...SKIES WILL CLR. SOME MID-HI CLOUDS WILL REACH KAVP AFTER 10Z.
HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AT KELM...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE IFR SO HAVE MVFR FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE.
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR N THE CIRRUS SHIELD MAKES IT WHICH WOULD
CUT OFF NET RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE VFR OVRNGT.

FOR FRI AM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. ANY IFR-MVFR
FOG WILL LIFT BY 13-14Z IF INDEED IT FORMS.

WINDS WILL BE W TO SWRLY UNDER 10 KNOTS THRU THE PD. THERE WILL
BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.
TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DJN







000
FXUS61 KALY 311749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 311749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 311749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 311749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH
A COLD POOL ALOFT...AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS OF 145 PM EDT...A LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING AWAY FROM KGFL. THIS
WAS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
SOME MORE SHOWERS OR MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL LONE THUNDERSTORM COULD
FORM. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS JUST TO REFLECT THIS
LOW POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
WIND 5-10KTS.

LATER THIS EVENING...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALL AND DAMPENS THE
SOIL...RADIATIONAL FOG IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KGFL AND KPSF
DUE TO A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...WITH LIGHT OR NO WIND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH IFR MIST (2 SM) AT BOTH THESE SITES.

AT KALB...ASSUMING NO RAIN FALLS...JUST WENT WITH VCFG FOR NOW AS
WELL AS KPOU.

ANY AND ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE BETWEEN 11Z-12Z. AFTER THAT SHOULD BE
VFR...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.

AFTER 18Z (AND THE TAF PERIOD) THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 311747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.

RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 311747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...ISOLD-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY
INTO SRN VT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE SARATOGA BATTLEFIELD. MOST
OF THE HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB SEVERE IN THE PEA TO PENNY SIZE
RANGE.

THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LIMITED THE UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH THE
LATEST SPC RAP DATE SHOWING AROUND AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THE
COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT-WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE H500 TEMP OF
-19C OVER KBUF...AND -17C OVER KALB THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 12Z
RAOBS. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND EAST...THAT MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
DISTURBANCE...AS INDICATIVE OF THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST PRIOR TO 6 PM. THE LATEST HRRR 3-KM COLUMNAR REF IMAGE HAS
THE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BTWN 5-7 PM.

TEMPS WERE RETRENDED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
PICTURE AND OBS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO L80S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...AND 60S TO L70S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS.  THE
BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.

RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE. LINE OF T-STORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAD
A GUST TO 36MPH HERE AT THE BURLINGTON AIRPORT. NOTED SOME OTHER
MESONET SITES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE
HAVEN`T HEARD OF ANY DAMAGE OR HAIL REPORTS. LOTS OF LIGHTNING THOUGH.

INSTABILITY IS REDEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ONTARIO, AND AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAD
INDICATED THAT WE WOULD INDEED SEE THIS OCCUR, THOUGH AT THIS
POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THOSE TO GROW TO SEVERE
LEVELS. STILL IT`S COLD ALOFT, SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

I WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THOSE SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS I MAY BE TOO AGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

ONE OF THE REAL MESSY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP 10F, BUT
THEN START TO REBOUND AS THE SUN COMES BACK OUT. I THINK FOR THE
MOST PART, VERMONT AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE
(BTV WAS 74 BEFORE THE RAIN), WHILE NEW YORK AREAS WILL PROBABLY
SEE THEIR HIGHS REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE END, I LEFT
THE HIGHS ALONE -- UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST
TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK
FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES
IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF
LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.

OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO.
ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER
DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES
SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T
ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE.

AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE
MENTION INTO TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE. LINE OF T-STORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAD
A GUST TO 36MPH HERE AT THE BURLINGTON AIRPORT. NOTED SOME OTHER
MESONET SITES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE
HAVEN`T HEARD OF ANY DAMAGE OR HAIL REPORTS. LOTS OF LIGHTNING THOUGH.

INSTABILITY IS REDEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ONTARIO, AND AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAD
INDICATED THAT WE WOULD INDEED SEE THIS OCCUR, THOUGH AT THIS
POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THOSE TO GROW TO SEVERE
LEVELS. STILL IT`S COLD ALOFT, SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

I WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THOSE SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS I MAY BE TOO AGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

ONE OF THE REAL MESSY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP 10F, BUT
THEN START TO REBOUND AS THE SUN COMES BACK OUT. I THINK FOR THE
MOST PART, VERMONT AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE
(BTV WAS 74 BEFORE THE RAIN), WHILE NEW YORK AREAS WILL PROBABLY
SEE THEIR HIGHS REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE END, I LEFT
THE HIGHS ALONE -- UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST
TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK
FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES
IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF
LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.

OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO.
ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER
DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES
SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T
ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE.

AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE
MENTION INTO TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE. LINE OF T-STORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAD
A GUST TO 36MPH HERE AT THE BURLINGTON AIRPORT. NOTED SOME OTHER
MESONET SITES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE
HAVEN`T HEARD OF ANY DAMAGE OR HAIL REPORTS. LOTS OF LIGHTNING THOUGH.

INSTABILITY IS REDEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ONTARIO, AND AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAD
INDICATED THAT WE WOULD INDEED SEE THIS OCCUR, THOUGH AT THIS
POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THOSE TO GROW TO SEVERE
LEVELS. STILL IT`S COLD ALOFT, SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

I WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THOSE SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS I MAY BE TOO AGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

ONE OF THE REAL MESSY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP 10F, BUT
THEN START TO REBOUND AS THE SUN COMES BACK OUT. I THINK FOR THE
MOST PART, VERMONT AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE
(BTV WAS 74 BEFORE THE RAIN), WHILE NEW YORK AREAS WILL PROBABLY
SEE THEIR HIGHS REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE END, I LEFT
THE HIGHS ALONE -- UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST
TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK
FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES
IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF
LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.

OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO.
ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER
DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES
SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T
ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE.

AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE
MENTION INTO TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
142 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT
SHAPE. LINE OF T-STORMS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HAD
A GUST TO 36MPH HERE AT THE BURLINGTON AIRPORT. NOTED SOME OTHER
MESONET SITES WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AS WELL. OTHERWISE
HAVEN`T HEARD OF ANY DAMAGE OR HAIL REPORTS. LOTS OF LIGHTNING THOUGH.

INSTABILITY IS REDEVELOPING OUT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ONTARIO, AND AS A RESULT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUBBLING UP. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAD
INDICATED THAT WE WOULD INDEED SEE THIS OCCUR, THOUGH AT THIS
POINT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY OF THOSE TO GROW TO SEVERE
LEVELS. STILL IT`S COLD ALOFT, SO SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE.

I WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THOSE SHOWERS/T-STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS I MAY BE TOO AGRESSIVE IN LOWERING THE POPS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.

ONE OF THE REAL MESSY ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE THE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE STORMS, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP 10F, BUT
THEN START TO REBOUND AS THE SUN COMES BACK OUT. I THINK FOR THE
MOST PART, VERMONT AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE
(BTV WAS 74 BEFORE THE RAIN), WHILE NEW YORK AREAS WILL PROBABLY
SEE THEIR HIGHS REACHED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE END, I LEFT
THE HIGHS ALONE -- UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THEY BRING A VERY BRIEF 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS. TRIED MY BEST
TO SHOW THE TIMING FOR MPV AND RUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRICK
FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPTURING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. HAVE CARRIED VCSH FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY UP TO 20-22Z OR SO. MAY HAVE TO DO QUICK UPDATES
IF SOMETHING ELSE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS AND HEADS FOR A TAF
LOCATION. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR.

OVERNIGHT AM ANTICIPATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN VERMONT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TODAYS RAIN WHICH HAS MOISTENED THE GROUND. SHOULD SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT SARANAC LAKE AND MONTPELIER FROM 07-12Z OR SO.
ALWAYS A QUESTION IF OTHER TAF LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME FOG AFTER
DAYTIME RAIN LIKE THIS. MOST OF THE TIME THEY DON`T, BUT SOMETIMES
SURPRISES HAPPEN THANKS TO SUCH LOCALIZED FEATURES THAT WE CAN`T
ADEQUATELY OBSERVE AND MEASURE.

AFTER ANY FOG, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE VFR. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT WORTHY TO PLACE
MENTION INTO TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311735
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS APPEARED TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REMOVED TEMPO
GROUP FOR SHRA AT KSWF. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHRA/TSTM AT CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS...THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
BE GUSTY AT CITY TERMINALS...WITH A SEABREEZE COMPONENT. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
S-SE MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE END OF GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND START/END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...NV/LN
HYDROLOGY...NV/LN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 311655
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE
COUNTY AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARD
SUNSET.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311655
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1255 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NY AWAY FROM THE
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE
COUNTY AND IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN TOWARD
SUNSET.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE VALLEYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
ON FRIDAY. DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SUITE THAT SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

FRIDAY WILL START TRANQUIL WITH SCT-BKN SC/AC CLOUDS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA ON LAKE ERIE BUT WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.  OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KALY 311650
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...REMOVED THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER OUT OF BOTH KALB
AND KPSF.

RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF THESE
AIRPORTS. THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT
RIGHT NOW THE THREAT LOOKS LOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VCSH.

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH A POSSIBLE WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT
WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 311643
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 311643
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 311643
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 311643
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. ML MUCAPE VALUES ARE AVERAGING 500-750 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ARE TOPPING 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO 30-40
KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS
LITTLE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION.

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP BACK POPS BY ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT...DROPPING
POPS FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND WILL DROP POPS FOR FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS NYC AND NE NJ.

THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311444
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1044 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE DOESN`T FEATURE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. JUST MATCHED UP THE
HOURLY FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SEEMS LIKE THE HRRR
MODEL IS DOING OKAY, SO RELIED ON THAT FOR PUTTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL TIMING DETAILS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AT A DEVELOPING LINE OF T-STORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. PART OF THAT LINE IS
LOOKING "BOWISH" AND IT WILL BE REACHING ESSEX COUNTY NY SHORTLY.
HAVE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL OUT IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. FAIRLY PROLIFIC ON LIGHTNING AS WELL. NEARLY
60 CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES BETWEEN 10A-1015A JUST IN ST LAWRENCE
COUNTY. PROBABLY TWICE THAT AMOUNT IN IN-CLOUD FLASHES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME, SURFACE INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH THE
HEATING WE ARE GETTING. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH CHILLY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS, THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT IS
FAIRLY LOW (8000-9000FT) SO HAIL IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH STORMS,
AND WE`VE ALREADY SEEN THAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION INTO CONVECTIVE
LINES -- AGAIN, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THAT.

SHOULD BE A BIT BUSY THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE STORMS SHOULD
BE PRETTY MUCH OFF TO OUR EAST BY 5 OR 6PM AT THE LATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 311443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CT.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK...OVERALL
SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER
POSSIBLE WELL N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE SHEAR/WIND FIELDS
COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGINIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/LN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT/JMC
MARINE...NV/LN
HYDROLOGY...NV/LN






000
FXUS61 KOKX 311443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CT.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK...OVERALL
SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER
POSSIBLE WELL N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE SHEAR/WIND FIELDS
COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGINIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/LN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT/JMC
MARINE...NV/LN
HYDROLOGY...NV/LN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 311430
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED LOTS OF
HAIL IN NC NY IS WORKG EASTWARD INTO NRN AND ERN NY...SOON TO BE
OUT OF THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD TWD WRN NEW ENGLAND AT
THIS TIME. THIS WAVE WILL BE EAST OF C NY AND NE PA FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUT OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN UNFAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SETTING FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT BEHIND
THIS WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION
UNDER FAIRLY COOL AIR ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST WITH
INSOLATION SOME SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CUD POP UP. THEREFORE WILL
HANG ON TO LOW CHC POPS FOR ADTNL SHRA AND ISLD TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...ACVTY WILL PERISH WITH LOSS OF DAY/S
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WV APRCHG THE AREA ATTM WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND A FEW TRWS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WV MVES OFF AFT 18Z BUT DIURNAL HTG WILL CONT
THE RISK OF BRIEF SHWRS THRU THE DAY. THESE SHWRS MAY BRING LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AS THEY PASS THE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY SHD WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET SO NO ADTNL SHWRS XPCTD THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. SOME
LGT MRNG FOG AT ELM MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR VSBYS AT THE END OF
THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 311430
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR SHOWS THAT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED LOTS OF
HAIL IN NC NY IS WORKG EASTWARD INTO NRN AND ERN NY...SOON TO BE
OUT OF THE WFO BGM FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
VIGOUROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD TWD WRN NEW ENGLAND AT
THIS TIME. THIS WAVE WILL BE EAST OF C NY AND NE PA FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUT OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN UNFAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SETTING FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT BEHIND
THIS WAVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION
UNDER FAIRLY COOL AIR ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST WITH
INSOLATION SOME SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CUD POP UP. THEREFORE WILL
HANG ON TO LOW CHC POPS FOR ADTNL SHRA AND ISLD TSRA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET...ACVTY WILL PERISH WITH LOSS OF DAY/S
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WV APRCHG THE AREA ATTM WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND A FEW TRWS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WV MVES OFF AFT 18Z BUT DIURNAL HTG WILL CONT
THE RISK OF BRIEF SHWRS THRU THE DAY. THESE SHWRS MAY BRING LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AS THEY PASS THE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY SHD WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET SO NO ADTNL SHWRS XPCTD THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. SOME
LGT MRNG FOG AT ELM MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR VSBYS AT THE END OF
THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE EAST OF
WESTERN NY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE UP OVER WESTERN NY AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET.

THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE EAST OF
WESTERN NY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE UP OVER WESTERN NY AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET.

THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE EAST OF
WESTERN NY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE UP OVER WESTERN NY AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET.

THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL BE EAST OF
WESTERN NY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FIRE UP OVER WESTERN NY AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN
FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY.  ANY CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
TOWARD SUNSET.

THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING ALOFT...
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. AREAS UNDER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS DOWN TO 3K FT AND VSBY
1-2SM. SCT-BKN 8-10K FT CLOUD BASES EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH
MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 311308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KALY 311308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY.

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS.
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH MENTION OF VCTS...DURING WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AT MPV/SLK. WINDS SOUTHERLY 8-13 KTS TODAY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 311138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF WESTERN NY THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY WITH A TAIL OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS STRETCHING BACK TO LAKE ERIE.  THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...ALTHOUGH THEY WERE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE SMALL HAIL/ACCUMULATION REPORTS OVER
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

MEANWHILE THE BROKEN LAKE BAND MAY BRIEFLY FIRE UP SOME MORE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS TOO SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THE LAND
BREEZE REORGANIZES INTO A LAKE BREEZE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ANOTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY THAT IS STILL UPSTREAM AS WELL.  THIS AREA
HAD SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS MAY FIRE UP OVER
WESTERN NY AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH ITS
REDEVELOPMENT.

LATER THIS MORNING AFTER THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS...THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NY WITH MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN
PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING
ALOFT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.  A
BROKEN AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE.  THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY INLAND
CONVECTION FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECT A LINE CONVECTION TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. AREAS UNDER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
IFR...BUT IN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOME IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND THIS MORNING
UNDER LOW CIGS.  VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...AND TODAY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS REQUIRE A SHORT-LIVED ISSUANCE OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF WESTERN NY THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY WITH A TAIL OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS STRETCHING BACK TO LAKE ERIE.  THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...ALTHOUGH THEY WERE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE SMALL HAIL/ACCUMULATION REPORTS OVER
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

MEANWHILE THE BROKEN LAKE BAND MAY BRIEFLY FIRE UP SOME MORE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS TOO SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS THE LAND
BREEZE REORGANIZES INTO A LAKE BREEZE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ANOTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY THAT IS STILL UPSTREAM AS WELL.  THIS AREA
HAD SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS MAY FIRE UP OVER
WESTERN NY AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE WITH ITS
REDEVELOPMENT.

LATER THIS MORNING AFTER THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS...THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NY WITH MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN
PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING
ALOFT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.  A
BROKEN AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE.  THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY INLAND
CONVECTION FROM LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECT A LINE CONVECTION TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. AREAS UNDER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF
IFR...BUT IN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SOME IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND THIS MORNING
UNDER LOW CIGS.  VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO BE WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...AND TODAY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS REQUIRE A SHORT-LIVED ISSUANCE OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 311137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KALY 311137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE.

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON
RADAR).

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR
NORTHEAST.

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 311119
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
719 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST FOR THE DAY CURRENTLY ON TRACK. TWEAKED TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS FOR CURRENT OBS BUT TREND WAS ON TRACK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...CONSISTENT
WITH OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE THERE.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT
WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THRU FRI.

ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFT 15-17Z...ESPECIALLY
N AND W OF KNYC. THE PROB OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT A PARTICULAR
TERMINAL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE
SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN.

VRB WINDS BECOME SW THIS MRNG THEN VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE THRU
THE DAY WITH A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TNGT
AS THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE WEAKENS.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. S
FLOW.
.SAT-SUN...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER. E FLOW SAT BECOMING S SUN.
.MON...BECOMING VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...LN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV









000
FXUS61 KALY 311047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON....SOME STORMS COULD BE STRING TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z TO
21Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST. RADIATIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 311047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE BASED MAINLY
ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE
NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON....SOME STORMS COULD BE STRING TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z TO
21Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED
IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST. RADIATIONAL
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 311044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO NOW, EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHEAST US WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN NY WITH SOME THUNDER
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS, AND A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE JUST MENTIONED MOVES
EAST. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXISTS EVERYWHERE, BY FAR THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NY STATE AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WV APRCHG THE AREA ATTM WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND A FEW TRWS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WV MVES OFF AFT 18Z BUT DIURNAL HTG WILL CONT
THE RISK OF BRIEF SHWRS THRU THE DAY. THESE SHWRS MAY BRING LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AS THEY PASS THE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY SHD WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET SO NO ADTNL SHWRS XPCTD THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. SOME
LGT MRNG FOG AT ELM MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR VSBYS AT THE END OF
THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 311044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO NOW, EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHEAST US WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN NY WITH SOME THUNDER
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS, AND A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE JUST MENTIONED MOVES
EAST. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXISTS EVERYWHERE, BY FAR THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NY STATE AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WV APRCHG THE AREA ATTM WILL TRIGGER SHWRS AND A FEW TRWS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WV MVES OFF AFT 18Z BUT DIURNAL HTG WILL CONT
THE RISK OF BRIEF SHWRS THRU THE DAY. THESE SHWRS MAY BRING LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS AS THEY PASS THE TERMINALS. ACTIVITY SHD WEAKEN AFT
SUNSET SO NO ADTNL SHWRS XPCTD THRU THE END OF THE TAF PD. SOME
LGT MRNG FOG AT ELM MAY ONCE AGAIN BRING MVFR VSBYS AT THE END OF
THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBTV 311028
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT THURSDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES A BIT BETTER AS READINGS HAVE GONE EVEN COOLER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY OF THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES
THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
OUR AREA. GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS REAL GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310846
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THRU FRI.

ISOLD-SCT SHRA AND TSTMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFT 15-17Z...ESPECIALLY
N AND W OF KNYC. THE PROB OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT A PARTICULAR
TERMINAL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE
SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN.

VRB WINDS BECOME SW THIS MRNG THEN VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE THRU
THE DAY WITH A SEA BREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TNGT
AS THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE WEAKENS.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NGT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE FRI AFTN/EVE.
S FLOW.
.SAT-SUN...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER. E FLOW SAT BECOMING S SUN.
.MON...BECOMING VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV







000
FXUS61 KALY 310835
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY
EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY
MAX SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN
US. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING THANKS TO THE LIFT FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE AND RAPIDLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

IN ADDITON TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J PER KG. OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING
SEGMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS
WELL. THE HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGHTENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE OME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY  RETURNING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINEUD THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN ARAES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT
AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 1.90 INCHES OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF WESTERN NY THIS MORNING.  A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENHANCED BY THE WARM LAKE ERIE WATER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE BUF METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
NY.  THIS WILL BE DUE TO TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ARE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS TOO SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PROVIDES SURFACE LAND HEATING
FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  BY THE TIME THESE ARE ESTABLISHED...THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN NY/SE
ONTARIO AND MOVING QUICKLY EAST.  THUS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN
PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING
ALOFT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE EAST INTO THE KBUF/KIAG REGIONS AND WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD THE GENESEE VALLEY/KROC AREA.  BY 18Z LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED INLAND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO BE
WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...AND TODAY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS REQUIRE A SHORT-LIVED ISSUANCE OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 310813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF WESTERN NY THIS MORNING.  A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENHANCED BY THE WARM LAKE ERIE WATER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE BUF METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
NY.  THIS WILL BE DUE TO TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ARE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS TOO SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PROVIDES SURFACE LAND HEATING
FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  BY THE TIME THESE ARE ESTABLISHED...THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN NY/SE
ONTARIO AND MOVING QUICKLY EAST.  THUS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN
PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING
ALOFT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE EAST INTO THE KBUF/KIAG REGIONS AND WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD THE GENESEE VALLEY/KROC AREA.  BY 18Z LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED INLAND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO BE
WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...AND TODAY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS REQUIRE A SHORT-LIVED ISSUANCE OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 310813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF WESTERN NY THIS MORNING.  A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENHANCED BY THE WARM LAKE ERIE WATER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE BUF METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
NY.  THIS WILL BE DUE TO TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ARE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS TOO SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PROVIDES SURFACE LAND HEATING
FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  BY THE TIME THESE ARE ESTABLISHED...THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN NY/SE
ONTARIO AND MOVING QUICKLY EAST.  THUS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN
PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING
ALOFT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE EAST INTO THE KBUF/KIAG REGIONS AND WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD THE GENESEE VALLEY/KROC AREA.  BY 18Z LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED INLAND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO BE
WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...AND TODAY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS REQUIRE A SHORT-LIVED ISSUANCE OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 310813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
413 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING.  ONE STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF WESTERN NY THIS MORNING.  A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENHANCED BY THE WARM LAKE ERIE WATER OVERNIGHT
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE BUF METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
NY.  THIS WILL BE DUE TO TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWING
CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ARE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE.

THIS TOO SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING
DISRUPTS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PROVIDES SURFACE LAND HEATING
FOR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  BY THE TIME THESE ARE ESTABLISHED...THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN NY/SE
ONTARIO AND MOVING QUICKLY EAST.  THUS EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING TOWARD SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN
PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WARMING
ALOFT...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
SUITE THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS FROM THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUBTLE COOLING
ALOFT AND FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL LEAD TO MODEST
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LIKELY TIMING BOTH
DAYS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE LOOKS TO BE
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THE EXPECTED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE EAST INTO THE KBUF/KIAG REGIONS AND WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD THE GENESEE VALLEY/KROC AREA.  BY 18Z LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED INLAND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO BE
WARY OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF -TSRA.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...AND TODAY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 9C COMBINED WITH
A CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY
THE RISK OF A WATERSPOUT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS REQUIRE A SHORT-LIVED ISSUANCE OVER
LAKE ERIE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...RSH/ZAFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 310812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE HAS BEEN
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALL NIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE STRENGTH OF
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.
GOING FORECAST OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS REAL
GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS WELL WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND SOME COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250 AND 500
J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK
EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...CONVECTION ENDS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON BOTH DAYS FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE CONVECTION THAN FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE PICTURE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN-BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES FOR A TIME...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S...NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. MIN
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND
MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS...COOLING A BIT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBGM 310801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO NOW, EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHEAST US WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN NY WITH SOME THUNDER
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS, AND A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE JUST MENTIONED MOVES
EAST. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXISTS EVERYWHERE, BY FAR THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NY STATE AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 310801
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO NOW, EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHEAST US WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF RAIN OVER WESTERN NY WITH SOME THUNDER
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY BY DAYBREAK. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS, AND A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE JUST MENTIONED MOVES
EAST. WHILE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL EXISTS EVERYWHERE, BY FAR THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NY STATE AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID END TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

AS THE DAY SHIFT MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A STAGNANT UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL BE UPON US THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PRONOUNCED TROF IN THE
NORTHEAST NOW WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BROADEN OUT A
BIT. THE RESULT WILL BE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR, WHICH WILL
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OR AROUND 80 DURING THE
DAY AND 60 AT NIGHT. THE DOWNSIDE WILL BE VARIOUS WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH HELPING TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP







000
FXUS61 KOKX 310800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 310800
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...OVERALL SHRA
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL
N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC
METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS
OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND
DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS A LOW THREAT FOR RIP DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BECOMING
THERE MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP
FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...LN/NV
HYDROLOGY...LN/NV







000
FXUS61 KALY 310602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY CANADA...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 310602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 202 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR
JAMES BAY CANADA...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THEY
APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 16Z
TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS WHILE DOWN IN KPOU HAVE USED
VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS.

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR FOG AT KPSF EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL STORMS. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES OFF OUR NORTHEAST.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310552
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT-LIVED LAKE
EFFECT BAND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER GENERALLY
JUST SOUTH OF KBUF UNTIL A BROADER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FORCED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING LAKE
ERIE.  THIS AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE KBUF
METRO AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION IN THE MORNING.

AFTER THAT MOVES EAST THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MESOSCALE LAKE
BREEZE T-STORM FORMATION ALBEIT WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING
STORMS WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INSTEAD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND...WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BE SWALLOWED UP BY A
LARGER AREA OF STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KBUF METRO AREA...PROBABLY
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KIAG AND JUST NORTH OF KJHW.  THE AREA OF
STORMS MAY IMPACT KROC TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING.  SOME IFR IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MESOSCALE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  MOST TAF LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 310552
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT-LIVED LAKE
EFFECT BAND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER GENERALLY
JUST SOUTH OF KBUF UNTIL A BROADER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FORCED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING LAKE
ERIE.  THIS AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE KBUF
METRO AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION IN THE MORNING.

AFTER THAT MOVES EAST THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MESOSCALE LAKE
BREEZE T-STORM FORMATION ALBEIT WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING
STORMS WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INSTEAD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND...WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BE SWALLOWED UP BY A
LARGER AREA OF STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KBUF METRO AREA...PROBABLY
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KIAG AND JUST NORTH OF KJHW.  THE AREA OF
STORMS MAY IMPACT KROC TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING.  SOME IFR IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MESOSCALE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  MOST TAF LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 310552
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT-LIVED LAKE
EFFECT BAND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER GENERALLY
JUST SOUTH OF KBUF UNTIL A BROADER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FORCED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING LAKE
ERIE.  THIS AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE KBUF
METRO AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION IN THE MORNING.

AFTER THAT MOVES EAST THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MESOSCALE LAKE
BREEZE T-STORM FORMATION ALBEIT WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING
STORMS WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INSTEAD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND...WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BE SWALLOWED UP BY A
LARGER AREA OF STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KBUF METRO AREA...PROBABLY
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KIAG AND JUST NORTH OF KJHW.  THE AREA OF
STORMS MAY IMPACT KROC TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING.  SOME IFR IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MESOSCALE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  MOST TAF LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 310552
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT-LIVED LAKE
EFFECT BAND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER GENERALLY
JUST SOUTH OF KBUF UNTIL A BROADER AREA OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...FORCED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING LAKE
ERIE.  THIS AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE KBUF
METRO AREA TOWARD SUNRISE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION IN THE MORNING.

AFTER THAT MOVES EAST THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO MESOSCALE LAKE
BREEZE T-STORM FORMATION ALBEIT WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING
STORMS WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INSTEAD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND...WEAKENING TOWARD
SUNSET.  THE CONTINUED COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BE SWALLOWED UP BY A
LARGER AREA OF STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE KBUF METRO AREA...PROBABLY
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF KIAG AND JUST NORTH OF KJHW.  THE AREA OF
STORMS MAY IMPACT KROC TOWARD SUNRISE BEFORE WEAKENING.  SOME IFR IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DURING THE DAY...EXPECT MESOSCALE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  MOST TAF LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED SHOULD ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...RSH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 310541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH WV HVG MVD INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA AS
OF 02Z. THUS, SHOWERS ARE HEADED EAST WITH THUNDER HVG COME TO AN
END IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THESE WL EXIT TO THE EAST AND/OR DIE
OFF BY 04Z. SKIES LOOKS TO CLR BRIEFLY IN BTWN WVS POSSIBLY ENUF
TO BRING VLY FOG TO THE REGION AHD OF NEXT APPCHG S/WV. THUS HV
ADDED PATCHY VLY FOG TO GRIDS BTWN 07Z AND 09Z BFR CLDS AND PCPN
MVS BACK IN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED OTHER THAN HRLY TWEAKS TO T/TD VALUES.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

725 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED S/WV SKIRTING THRU WRN NY AT
THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FINGER LKS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO NRN TIER OF PA. INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AS CORES HV DROPPED DOWN BLO 18KFT. DROPPED HRLY TEMP
VALUES IN RAIN-COOLED AIR BUT HV NOT TWEAKED OVRNGT MINS WITH MOST
LOCALES STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE M50S WITH DWPTS STILL RMNG
STEADY IN THE 50S.

NEXT WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO DROP
INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AFT 09Z THIS MRNG LDNG TO SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFT THIS TIME. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND
WITH POPS LOOKING LKLY THRU AT LEAST NOON. NO CHGS MADE BYND THIS
TIME AS ANY LITTLE BNDRY LEFT OVR FM CONVECTION MAY BE ENUF TO
FIRE ADDNL STORMS DRG THE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG.

450 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO GO LKLY ACRS FINGER LKS, SPREADING EAST OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOC WITH WV DROPPING INTO WNY AT
THIS TIME. MLCAPES LOOK MEAGER ARND 500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. FRZG
LVLS UP ARND 10KFT, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR THIS AFTN THO SOME
STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WL BEAR WATCHING RADAR FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GRIDS HV ALREADY BEEN SENT.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHRA WORKING E-NE INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WORKING EWRD INTO NY AND PA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDING
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...PROVIDING SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SOME INSTABILITY. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG MAINLY W OF I-81.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SVR WEATHER GIVEN LACK OF STRG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BUT WILL BE ADDING TSRA TO GRIDS AS 12Z GUIDC IS MORE
UNSTBL THAN 06Z AND 00Z GUIDC OF LAST NIGHT. THERE REALLY ISN`T
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION EITHER AND I BELIEVE IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED ALSO LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. ALL THE
ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. I USED WFO BGM/S LOCAL WRF 4KM VERSION FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. I ALSO BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS FORECAST. SO WILL HAVE
CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND WILL ADD TSRA SHORTLY.

FOR TONIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST. THEN ANOTHER SHRT WAVE...
PRESENTLY SEEN WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING SOUTHWARD
TWD LAKE SUPERIOR... WILL CROSS NY AND PA THU MORNING. I EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDTNL SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY TOO. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST BY AFTERNOON...THE TIME OF MAX HEATING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF INTENSE STORMS. CAPES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT BEST 500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THU AM
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING LL BNDRY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME GOING GIVEN THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. STILL WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING...LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP SSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS... BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ANY SEVERE WX AND GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80
AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON SUNDAY... WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY GIVEN SOME FORCING BUT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 310541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH WV HVG MVD INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA AS
OF 02Z. THUS, SHOWERS ARE HEADED EAST WITH THUNDER HVG COME TO AN
END IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THESE WL EXIT TO THE EAST AND/OR DIE
OFF BY 04Z. SKIES LOOKS TO CLR BRIEFLY IN BTWN WVS POSSIBLY ENUF
TO BRING VLY FOG TO THE REGION AHD OF NEXT APPCHG S/WV. THUS HV
ADDED PATCHY VLY FOG TO GRIDS BTWN 07Z AND 09Z BFR CLDS AND PCPN
MVS BACK IN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED OTHER THAN HRLY TWEAKS TO T/TD VALUES.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

725 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED S/WV SKIRTING THRU WRN NY AT
THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FINGER LKS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO NRN TIER OF PA. INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AS CORES HV DROPPED DOWN BLO 18KFT. DROPPED HRLY TEMP
VALUES IN RAIN-COOLED AIR BUT HV NOT TWEAKED OVRNGT MINS WITH MOST
LOCALES STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE M50S WITH DWPTS STILL RMNG
STEADY IN THE 50S.

NEXT WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO DROP
INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AFT 09Z THIS MRNG LDNG TO SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFT THIS TIME. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND
WITH POPS LOOKING LKLY THRU AT LEAST NOON. NO CHGS MADE BYND THIS
TIME AS ANY LITTLE BNDRY LEFT OVR FM CONVECTION MAY BE ENUF TO
FIRE ADDNL STORMS DRG THE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG.

450 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO GO LKLY ACRS FINGER LKS, SPREADING EAST OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOC WITH WV DROPPING INTO WNY AT
THIS TIME. MLCAPES LOOK MEAGER ARND 500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. FRZG
LVLS UP ARND 10KFT, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR THIS AFTN THO SOME
STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WL BEAR WATCHING RADAR FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GRIDS HV ALREADY BEEN SENT.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHRA WORKING E-NE INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WORKING EWRD INTO NY AND PA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDING
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...PROVIDING SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SOME INSTABILITY. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG MAINLY W OF I-81.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SVR WEATHER GIVEN LACK OF STRG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BUT WILL BE ADDING TSRA TO GRIDS AS 12Z GUIDC IS MORE
UNSTBL THAN 06Z AND 00Z GUIDC OF LAST NIGHT. THERE REALLY ISN`T
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION EITHER AND I BELIEVE IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED ALSO LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. ALL THE
ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. I USED WFO BGM/S LOCAL WRF 4KM VERSION FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. I ALSO BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS FORECAST. SO WILL HAVE
CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND WILL ADD TSRA SHORTLY.

FOR TONIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST. THEN ANOTHER SHRT WAVE...
PRESENTLY SEEN WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING SOUTHWARD
TWD LAKE SUPERIOR... WILL CROSS NY AND PA THU MORNING. I EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDTNL SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY TOO. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST BY AFTERNOON...THE TIME OF MAX HEATING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF INTENSE STORMS. CAPES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT BEST 500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THU AM
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING LL BNDRY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME GOING GIVEN THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. STILL WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING...LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP SSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS... BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ANY SEVERE WX AND GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80
AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON SUNDAY... WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY GIVEN SOME FORCING BUT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 310541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH WV HVG MVD INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA AS
OF 02Z. THUS, SHOWERS ARE HEADED EAST WITH THUNDER HVG COME TO AN
END IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THESE WL EXIT TO THE EAST AND/OR DIE
OFF BY 04Z. SKIES LOOKS TO CLR BRIEFLY IN BTWN WVS POSSIBLY ENUF
TO BRING VLY FOG TO THE REGION AHD OF NEXT APPCHG S/WV. THUS HV
ADDED PATCHY VLY FOG TO GRIDS BTWN 07Z AND 09Z BFR CLDS AND PCPN
MVS BACK IN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED OTHER THAN HRLY TWEAKS TO T/TD VALUES.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

725 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED S/WV SKIRTING THRU WRN NY AT
THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FINGER LKS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO NRN TIER OF PA. INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AS CORES HV DROPPED DOWN BLO 18KFT. DROPPED HRLY TEMP
VALUES IN RAIN-COOLED AIR BUT HV NOT TWEAKED OVRNGT MINS WITH MOST
LOCALES STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE M50S WITH DWPTS STILL RMNG
STEADY IN THE 50S.

NEXT WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO DROP
INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AFT 09Z THIS MRNG LDNG TO SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFT THIS TIME. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND
WITH POPS LOOKING LKLY THRU AT LEAST NOON. NO CHGS MADE BYND THIS
TIME AS ANY LITTLE BNDRY LEFT OVR FM CONVECTION MAY BE ENUF TO
FIRE ADDNL STORMS DRG THE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG.

450 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO GO LKLY ACRS FINGER LKS, SPREADING EAST OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOC WITH WV DROPPING INTO WNY AT
THIS TIME. MLCAPES LOOK MEAGER ARND 500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. FRZG
LVLS UP ARND 10KFT, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR THIS AFTN THO SOME
STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WL BEAR WATCHING RADAR FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GRIDS HV ALREADY BEEN SENT.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHRA WORKING E-NE INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WORKING EWRD INTO NY AND PA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDING
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...PROVIDING SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SOME INSTABILITY. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG MAINLY W OF I-81.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SVR WEATHER GIVEN LACK OF STRG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BUT WILL BE ADDING TSRA TO GRIDS AS 12Z GUIDC IS MORE
UNSTBL THAN 06Z AND 00Z GUIDC OF LAST NIGHT. THERE REALLY ISN`T
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION EITHER AND I BELIEVE IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED ALSO LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. ALL THE
ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. I USED WFO BGM/S LOCAL WRF 4KM VERSION FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. I ALSO BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS FORECAST. SO WILL HAVE
CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND WILL ADD TSRA SHORTLY.

FOR TONIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST. THEN ANOTHER SHRT WAVE...
PRESENTLY SEEN WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING SOUTHWARD
TWD LAKE SUPERIOR... WILL CROSS NY AND PA THU MORNING. I EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDTNL SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY TOO. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST BY AFTERNOON...THE TIME OF MAX HEATING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF INTENSE STORMS. CAPES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT BEST 500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THU AM
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING LL BNDRY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME GOING GIVEN THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. STILL WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING...LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP SSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS... BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ANY SEVERE WX AND GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80
AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON SUNDAY... WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY GIVEN SOME FORCING BUT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 310541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH WV HVG MVD INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA AS
OF 02Z. THUS, SHOWERS ARE HEADED EAST WITH THUNDER HVG COME TO AN
END IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THESE WL EXIT TO THE EAST AND/OR DIE
OFF BY 04Z. SKIES LOOKS TO CLR BRIEFLY IN BTWN WVS POSSIBLY ENUF
TO BRING VLY FOG TO THE REGION AHD OF NEXT APPCHG S/WV. THUS HV
ADDED PATCHY VLY FOG TO GRIDS BTWN 07Z AND 09Z BFR CLDS AND PCPN
MVS BACK IN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED OTHER THAN HRLY TWEAKS TO T/TD VALUES.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

725 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED S/WV SKIRTING THRU WRN NY AT
THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FINGER LKS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO NRN TIER OF PA. INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AS CORES HV DROPPED DOWN BLO 18KFT. DROPPED HRLY TEMP
VALUES IN RAIN-COOLED AIR BUT HV NOT TWEAKED OVRNGT MINS WITH MOST
LOCALES STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE M50S WITH DWPTS STILL RMNG
STEADY IN THE 50S.

NEXT WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO DROP
INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AFT 09Z THIS MRNG LDNG TO SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFT THIS TIME. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND
WITH POPS LOOKING LKLY THRU AT LEAST NOON. NO CHGS MADE BYND THIS
TIME AS ANY LITTLE BNDRY LEFT OVR FM CONVECTION MAY BE ENUF TO
FIRE ADDNL STORMS DRG THE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG.

450 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO GO LKLY ACRS FINGER LKS, SPREADING EAST OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOC WITH WV DROPPING INTO WNY AT
THIS TIME. MLCAPES LOOK MEAGER ARND 500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. FRZG
LVLS UP ARND 10KFT, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR THIS AFTN THO SOME
STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WL BEAR WATCHING RADAR FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GRIDS HV ALREADY BEEN SENT.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHRA WORKING E-NE INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WORKING EWRD INTO NY AND PA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDING
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...PROVIDING SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SOME INSTABILITY. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG MAINLY W OF I-81.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SVR WEATHER GIVEN LACK OF STRG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BUT WILL BE ADDING TSRA TO GRIDS AS 12Z GUIDC IS MORE
UNSTBL THAN 06Z AND 00Z GUIDC OF LAST NIGHT. THERE REALLY ISN`T
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION EITHER AND I BELIEVE IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED ALSO LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. ALL THE
ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. I USED WFO BGM/S LOCAL WRF 4KM VERSION FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. I ALSO BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS FORECAST. SO WILL HAVE
CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND WILL ADD TSRA SHORTLY.

FOR TONIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST. THEN ANOTHER SHRT WAVE...
PRESENTLY SEEN WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING SOUTHWARD
TWD LAKE SUPERIOR... WILL CROSS NY AND PA THU MORNING. I EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDTNL SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY TOO. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST BY AFTERNOON...THE TIME OF MAX HEATING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF INTENSE STORMS. CAPES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT BEST 500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THU AM
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING LL BNDRY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME GOING GIVEN THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. STILL WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING...LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP SSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS... BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ANY SEVERE WX AND GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80
AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON SUNDAY... WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY GIVEN SOME FORCING BUT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SKIES HAVE CLRD BETWEEN WVS AND MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO FRM...ESP IN
THE VLYS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME OCNL IFR CONDS AT ELM...AND SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ELSEWHERE. SHRTLY AFT 12Z...ANOTHER WC WILL
APRCH AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
HWVR...BALANCE OF THE DAYLGT HERS SHD HAVE VFR CONDS. LGT WINDS
AND VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT 00Z AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...DGM/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBTV 310526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 310526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HOWEVER TO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY AFFECT SLK/MPV AT TIMES
THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. DURING THURSDAY MORNING...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED
PREVAILING SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z WITH SHOWERS
CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 8-12 KTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 111 AM EDT THURSDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE. ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK COULD GET INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TOWARD
SUNRISE AND HAVE MENTIONED SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE...BUT
KEPT EVERYONE ELSE DRY. REMAINED OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST FROM EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEST OF HUDSON OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 310506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST FROM EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEST OF HUDSON OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 310506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST FROM EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEST OF HUDSON OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KOKX 310506
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
106 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST FROM EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A THREAT OF SPRINKLES OR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER WEST OF HUDSON OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON THU.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z...WITH KSWF POSSIBLY
IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO IMPACT
TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THRU THE
DAY. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS/NV
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310326
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TO DRY OUT AS
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON`S SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
STATE. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW HOT ON IT`S HEELS
HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THANKS TO FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT
PARAMETERS. WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING 30KFT AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...TIED
PRIMARILY TO THE SHORTWAVE. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING
IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL
AIR ALOFT. THIS COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
A BROKEN AND WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE THAT SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN NY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE REINVIGORATED VIA LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN END
OF THE LAKE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF
UPDATES BEING ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE IS
ENHANCED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WHILE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310326
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TO DRY OUT AS
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON`S SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
STATE. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW HOT ON IT`S HEELS
HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THANKS TO FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT
PARAMETERS. WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING 30KFT AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...TIED
PRIMARILY TO THE SHORTWAVE. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING
IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL
AIR ALOFT. THIS COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
A BROKEN AND WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE THAT SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN NY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE REINVIGORATED VIA LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN END
OF THE LAKE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF
UPDATES BEING ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE IS
ENHANCED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WHILE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310326
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TO DRY OUT AS
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON`S SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
STATE. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW HOT ON IT`S HEELS
HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THANKS TO FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT
PARAMETERS. WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING 30KFT AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...TIED
PRIMARILY TO THE SHORTWAVE. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING
IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL
AIR ALOFT. THIS COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
A BROKEN AND WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE THAT SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN NY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE REINVIGORATED VIA LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN END
OF THE LAKE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF
UPDATES BEING ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE IS
ENHANCED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WHILE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310326
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY AS WE PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED NEAR
JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT TOWARDS THE
ARCTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL HAVE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TO DRY OUT AS
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON`S SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
STATE. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW HOT ON IT`S HEELS
HOWEVER...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES THANKS TO FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT
PARAMETERS. WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
APPROACHING 30KFT AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...TIED
PRIMARILY TO THE SHORTWAVE. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING
IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
LINGERING DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL
AIR ALOFT. THIS COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JULY
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE THIS GENERALLY SHOULD
KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD CONSENSUS SHOWING A SHORT PERIOD OF FLAT RIDGING ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW
OF DRY CONDITIONS. LATER ON FRIDAY PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RELOAD AS THE NEXT
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS COOLING ALOFT WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY. FORECAST BULK SHEAR LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL PULL THE
COLDEST AIR WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTHWARD. WARMING OVER THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
MID-SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO TO THE MID
TO LOW 50S BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BUT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FULL CONUS 500MB TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
GFS/ECMWF TO SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5
INCHES WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WINDOW OF FLAT RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY FOR MOST
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO
THEN AGAIN EXHIBIT A DEEPENING BUT THIS TIME PROGRESSIVE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BRINGS BACK CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A PACIFIC SOURCED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
A BROKEN AND WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE THAT SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN NY AFTER 06Z. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE REINVIGORATED VIA LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN END
OF THE LAKE...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH TAF
UPDATES BEING ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE IS
ENHANCED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WHILE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CONTINUED BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO HELPED TO GENERATE SOME LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS LAST NIGHT...
AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS...WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

THIS FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE EXCELLENT GUIDANCE OFFERED BY THE
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM. OUR H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 8C COMBINED WITH A
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 30K SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS. THESE HAVE BEEN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME TIME NOW AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL THUS CARRY THE
RISK OF ALSO HAVING A WATERSPOUT.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE
HAVE INCREASED TO THE POINT WHERE A SHORT LIVED SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS ON LK ERIE WILL THEN DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
WITH MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SHORT FUSED SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT
ARE BASED ON HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BEAR
WATERSPOUTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 310242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN NY/PA. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMITING MOISTURE...PCPN IS DISSIPATING AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
NE NJ. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL THROUGH 1 AM FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING HOLDING TOGETHER.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS OF 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z THURSDAY...WITH KSWF
POSSIBLY IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO
IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THURSDAY. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN NY/PA. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMITING MOISTURE...PCPN IS DISSIPATING AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
NE NJ. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL THROUGH 1 AM FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING HOLDING TOGETHER.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS OF 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z THURSDAY...WITH KSWF
POSSIBLY IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO
IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THURSDAY. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN NY/PA. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMITING MOISTURE...PCPN IS DISSIPATING AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
NE NJ. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL THROUGH 1 AM FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING HOLDING TOGETHER.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS OF 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z THURSDAY...WITH KSWF
POSSIBLY IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO
IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THURSDAY. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KOKX 310242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MOVES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN NY/PA. HOWEVER...WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMITING MOISTURE...PCPN IS DISSIPATING AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA/LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
NE NJ. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE POTENTIAL THROUGH 1 AM FOR THIS
AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
ANYTHING HOLDING TOGETHER.

HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND
RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE OUTLYING
AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND
NYC...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. LOWS IN OUTLYING PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE NIGHT AS OF 02Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY IN CANADA AND PASSES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
CWA. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK... GENERALLY RANGING FROM -1 TO -2C. WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT
CHANCE...AND WILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING IN THE
LATE MORNING...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. DO THINK STORMS
WILL BE HARD TO MAKE IT TO FAR SE CT AND EASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY...AND WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE
AREAS.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR NYC...LONG
ISLAND...NE NJ...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. LIGHT...ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
AWAY FROM NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AREAS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BERMUDA RIDGE
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE 12Z/GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST FORCING FOR CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHILE 12Z/ECMWF SHOWS THE BEST FORCING TO
BE ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND MAINTAIN
40/50 POP FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SCHC
POPS ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FROM AROUND 14Z TO 19Z THURSDAY...WITH KSWF
POSSIBLY IMPACTED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN ALSO POSSIBLE. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE NYC TERMINALS...HOWEVER NO
IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SW WIND TONIGHT INCREASES THURSDAY. A
SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 16Z TO 19Z THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSTMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BRIEF...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING. A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 310230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMER
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR CHANGES AT THE 1000 PM
HOUR...MAINLY TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER DOWNWARD ACROSS
ERN VT WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING. WEAK SFC TROUGH AND
ASSOC SCT SHOWER/ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EDGE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY THE
06-09Z TIME FRAME PER LATEST WRF/HRRR RUNS. ONLY LIGHT AMTS OF QPF
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF SHOWER/ISOLD STORM STILL POSSIBLE ERN
NY/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S...THOUGH WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY (A
FEW 40S NERN VT/DACKS AND LOCALLY NEAR 60 CHAMPLAIN VALLEY). ALSO
HELD ONTO PATCHY FOG ACROSS ERN VT WHERE MORE CLEARING/RADIATIVE
EFFECTS WILL OCCUR. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STILL PARKED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE WE`RE EXPECTING THERE WILL BE A LOT TO
LOOK AT ON RADAR TOMORROW...STILL NOT THINKING WE`LL SEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WISE WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY AND ONLY
MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. DECENT COLD POOL ALOFT
AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS (~8-9K FT) STILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SMALL HAIL THOUGH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE EXITS AND CHANCES OF PRECIP DIMINISH
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY LEAVING US IN A BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT. 925MB TEMPS RISE UP
TO AROUND 18-19C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LESS
COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY IS WEAK. ANY CONVECTION DIES
OFF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS N THE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 317 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...EMBEDDED IN THE S/SW
FLOW...MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.5+ INCHES. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 11-13C. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM
THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS VFR. ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST THAT WE EXPECT FOG
AT SLK/MPV AFTER 04-12Z...AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 12Z. DURING
THURSDAY MORNING...STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE MORNING THOUGH AFTERNOON...DURING
WHICH TIME MVFR AND/OR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING THE REGION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AT
6-15KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/KGM






000
FXUS61 KALY 310201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF
DIMINISHING CONVECTION ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS JUST
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR KROC. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS OVER...ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THEY
APPROACH EASTERN NY. THIS TOO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHC OR CHC CATEGORIES.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL NY MAY LIMIT OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N
AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL OF
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCH FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

WHILE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 310201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A BAND OF
DIMINISHING CONVECTION ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS JUST
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR KROC. WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING IS OVER...ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THEY
APPROACH EASTERN NY. THIS TOO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE
REFLECTIVITY MODELS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY
OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHC OR CHC CATEGORIES.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL NY MAY LIMIT OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL...ESP FOR AREAS N
AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS TIME...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD
COVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...COOLER MIN
TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MAY BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRANSLATE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE 12Z/30 NAM THE SLOWEST WITH
ITS PASSAGE...AND THE 12Z/30 GFS AND GEM THE QUICKEST. THE TIMING
OF ITS PASSAGE WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS...WITH A SLOWER PASSAGE ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
DIABATIC HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND THUS STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS IN THE -16C TO -18 C RANGE. THE BIG QUESTION...AS
ALWAYS...WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST 500-750 J/KG...SHOULD TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL CRITERIA IS MET WITH ANY
EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...EVEN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION COULD BE
CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SFC...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
DEVELOPING...IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THU NT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A RELATIVE MIN IN
PRECIP CHANCES. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NT...MODELS SEEM OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC GENERATING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DESPITE AN APPARENT
OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
APPEARS TO BE A RETREATING JET MAX SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING OUR REGION TO BECOME PLACED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...ESP ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
IN VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT
MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WILL FEATURE LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW
ENERGETICS PATTERN.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO GRADUALLY
RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
ACCOMPANYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY INTERACT WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR TUESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH TO BRING THE POTENTIAL OF
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCH FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

WHILE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ARRIVES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR VFR-MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF KPOU. AS THIS UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY...AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE PASSING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AND
ANOTHER...STRONGER ONE PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WITH AREAL RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS OF
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERATE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...DESPITE POSSIBLY PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ADDITIONAL AREAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...ISOLATED
HIGHER AMTS OF UP TO ONE INCH COULD OCCUR. THESE AMTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ALTHOUGH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCAL PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITHIN A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH WV HVG MVD INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA AS
OF 02Z. THUS, SHOWERS ARE HEADED EAST WITH THUNDER HVG COME TO AN
END IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THESE WL EXIT TO THE EAST AND/OR DIE
OFF BY 04Z. SKIES LOOKS TO CLR BRIEFLY IN BTWN WVS POSSIBLY ENUF
TO BRING VLY FOG TO THE REGION AHD OF NEXT APPCHG S/WV. THUS HV
ADDED PATCHY VLY FOG TO GRIDS BTWN 07Z AND 09Z BFR CLDS AND PCPN
MVS BACK IN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED OTHER THAN HRLY TWEAKS TO T/TD VALUES.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

725 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED S/WV SKIRTING THRU WRN NY AT
THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FINGER LKS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO NRN TIER OF PA. INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AS CORES HV DROPPED DOWN BLO 18KFT. DROPPED HRLY TEMP
VALUES IN RAIN-COOLED AIR BUT HV NOT TWEAKED OVRNGT MINS WITH MOST
LOCALES STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE M50S WITH DWPTS STILL RMNG
STEADY IN THE 50S.

NEXT WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO DROP
INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AFT 09Z THIS MRNG LDNG TO SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFT THIS TIME. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND
WITH POPS LOOKING LKLY THRU AT LEAST NOON. NO CHGS MADE BYND THIS
TIME AS ANY LITTLE BNDRY LEFT OVR FM CONVECTION MAY BE ENUF TO
FIRE ADDNL STORMS DRG THE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG.

450 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO GO LKLY ACRS FINGER LKS, SPREADING EAST OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOC WITH WV DROPPING INTO WNY AT
THIS TIME. MLCAPES LOOK MEAGER ARND 500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. FRZG
LVLS UP ARND 10KFT, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR THIS AFTN THO SOME
STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WL BEAR WATCHING RADAR FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GRIDS HV ALREADY BEEN SENT.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHRA WORKING E-NE INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WORKING EWRD INTO NY AND PA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDING
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...PROVIDING SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SOME INSTABILITY. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG MAINLY W OF I-81.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SVR WEATHER GIVEN LACK OF STRG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BUT WILL BE ADDING TSRA TO GRIDS AS 12Z GUIDC IS MORE
UNSTBL THAN 06Z AND 00Z GUIDC OF LAST NIGHT. THERE REALLY ISN`T
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION EITHER AND I BELIEVE IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED ALSO LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. ALL THE
ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. I USED WFO BGM/S LOCAL WRF 4KM VERSION FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. I ALSO BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS FORECAST. SO WILL HAVE
CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND WILL ADD TSRA SHORTLY.

FOR TONIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST. THEN ANOTHER SHRT WAVE...
PRESENTLY SEEN WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING SOUTHWARD
TWD LAKE SUPERIOR... WILL CROSS NY AND PA THU MORNING. I EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDTNL SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY TOO. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST BY AFTERNOON...THE TIME OF MAX HEATING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF INTENSE STORMS. CAPES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT BEST 500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THU AM
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING LL BNDRY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME GOING GIVEN THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. STILL WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING...LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP SSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS... BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ANY SEVERE WX AND GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80
AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON SUNDAY... WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY GIVEN SOME FORCING BUT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS...WITH REMAINS OF CONVECTION EARLY ON FOR
MANY TERMINALS...FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST KELM AND POSSIBLY
OTHERS...AND THEN A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z-
16Z WITH AT LEAST SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER. TEMPORARY NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT AND RESTRICTIONS KRME-KSYR-KITH-KBGM AND THEN
KAVP...OTHERWISE LIGHT S TO SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
LOCALIZED ESE WIND KRME. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A GAP IN
CLOUD COVER DURING PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING...TO ALLOW
VALLEY FOG FORMATION KELM INCLUDING TIMES OF IFR VIS 08Z-12Z. AT
LEAST MVFR FIGURED LATE TONIGHT KRME...IFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THEN 12Z-16Z...A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE
THAT AS OF 00Z IS CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. HANDLED VIA TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
MOST TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
DESPITE MORNING TIMING...WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WHERE CB WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. FOR NOW TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE CB IN TAFS...BUT CB MAY BE ADDED IN LATER TAF SETS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS ALSO TO VEER SW TO W AROUND 10 KTS WITH
WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CB POSSIBLE SIMPLY DUE TO INSTABILITY OF DAYTIME HEATING
BUT THE WAVE WILL HAVE EXITED AND SO NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 310159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH WV HVG MVD INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA AS
OF 02Z. THUS, SHOWERS ARE HEADED EAST WITH THUNDER HVG COME TO AN
END IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THESE WL EXIT TO THE EAST AND/OR DIE
OFF BY 04Z. SKIES LOOKS TO CLR BRIEFLY IN BTWN WVS POSSIBLY ENUF
TO BRING VLY FOG TO THE REGION AHD OF NEXT APPCHG S/WV. THUS HV
ADDED PATCHY VLY FOG TO GRIDS BTWN 07Z AND 09Z BFR CLDS AND PCPN
MVS BACK IN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED OTHER THAN HRLY TWEAKS TO T/TD VALUES.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

725 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED S/WV SKIRTING THRU WRN NY AT
THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FINGER LKS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO NRN TIER OF PA. INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AS CORES HV DROPPED DOWN BLO 18KFT. DROPPED HRLY TEMP
VALUES IN RAIN-COOLED AIR BUT HV NOT TWEAKED OVRNGT MINS WITH MOST
LOCALES STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE M50S WITH DWPTS STILL RMNG
STEADY IN THE 50S.

NEXT WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO DROP
INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AFT 09Z THIS MRNG LDNG TO SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFT THIS TIME. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND
WITH POPS LOOKING LKLY THRU AT LEAST NOON. NO CHGS MADE BYND THIS
TIME AS ANY LITTLE BNDRY LEFT OVR FM CONVECTION MAY BE ENUF TO
FIRE ADDNL STORMS DRG THE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG.

450 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO GO LKLY ACRS FINGER LKS, SPREADING EAST OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOC WITH WV DROPPING INTO WNY AT
THIS TIME. MLCAPES LOOK MEAGER ARND 500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. FRZG
LVLS UP ARND 10KFT, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR THIS AFTN THO SOME
STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WL BEAR WATCHING RADAR FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GRIDS HV ALREADY BEEN SENT.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHRA WORKING E-NE INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WORKING EWRD INTO NY AND PA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDING
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...PROVIDING SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SOME INSTABILITY. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG MAINLY W OF I-81.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SVR WEATHER GIVEN LACK OF STRG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BUT WILL BE ADDING TSRA TO GRIDS AS 12Z GUIDC IS MORE
UNSTBL THAN 06Z AND 00Z GUIDC OF LAST NIGHT. THERE REALLY ISN`T
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION EITHER AND I BELIEVE IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED ALSO LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. ALL THE
ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. I USED WFO BGM/S LOCAL WRF 4KM VERSION FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. I ALSO BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS FORECAST. SO WILL HAVE
CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND WILL ADD TSRA SHORTLY.

FOR TONIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST. THEN ANOTHER SHRT WAVE...
PRESENTLY SEEN WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING SOUTHWARD
TWD LAKE SUPERIOR... WILL CROSS NY AND PA THU MORNING. I EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDTNL SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY TOO. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST BY AFTERNOON...THE TIME OF MAX HEATING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF INTENSE STORMS. CAPES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT BEST 500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THU AM
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING LL BNDRY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME GOING GIVEN THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. STILL WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING...LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP SSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS... BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ANY SEVERE WX AND GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80
AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON SUNDAY... WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY GIVEN SOME FORCING BUT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS...WITH REMAINS OF CONVECTION EARLY ON FOR
MANY TERMINALS...FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST KELM AND POSSIBLY
OTHERS...AND THEN A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z-
16Z WITH AT LEAST SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER. TEMPORARY NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT AND RESTRICTIONS KRME-KSYR-KITH-KBGM AND THEN
KAVP...OTHERWISE LIGHT S TO SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
LOCALIZED ESE WIND KRME. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A GAP IN
CLOUD COVER DURING PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING...TO ALLOW
VALLEY FOG FORMATION KELM INCLUDING TIMES OF IFR VIS 08Z-12Z. AT
LEAST MVFR FIGURED LATE TONIGHT KRME...IFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THEN 12Z-16Z...A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE
THAT AS OF 00Z IS CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. HANDLED VIA TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
MOST TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
DESPITE MORNING TIMING...WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WHERE CB WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. FOR NOW TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE CB IN TAFS...BUT CB MAY BE ADDED IN LATER TAF SETS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS ALSO TO VEER SW TO W AROUND 10 KTS WITH
WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CB POSSIBLE SIMPLY DUE TO INSTABILITY OF DAYTIME HEATING
BUT THE WAVE WILL HAVE EXITED AND SO NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBUF 310105
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FALL LIKE WEATHER PA