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000
FXUS61 KBUF 180311
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE REGION. A PEEK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS JUST OUR WEST
HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO
AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPINGE UPON THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROP UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ROCHESTER METRO.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BAND OF
SHOWERS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP CURRENTLY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AID IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE
IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN
VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD







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000
FXUS61 KOKX 180255
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1055 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TRACK AND MADE EDITS TO TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. TEMPS WERE DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND
THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. LAV DATA ALSO INDICATING LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL
ADVECTING IN BY 07-09Z.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT
LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDING OFF A FEW MORE HOURS...EXPECT SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS. SO WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT KFOK GETS TO 32 DEGREES BUT FREEZING TEMPS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE WARNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH FRI.

AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE TO THE E...STARTING TO SEE A FEW PATCHES OF
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NJ ON THE FOG IR SAT. AN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PUSH THESE TO THE W...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF
SAT DATA FOR TRENDS BEFORE INCLUDING PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT
KEWR/KTEB TONIGHT. THUS THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS
A CHALLENGE. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF
MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z
AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED THE STRATUS INTO KLGA WITH TEMPO`S
CONTINUING FOR THE TIME BEING AT KEWR/KTEB. THE MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID-LATE FRI MORNING.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC






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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND
TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM






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000
FXUS61 KALY 180233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 180217
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1017 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TRACK AND MADE EDITS TO TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS. TEMPS WERE DROPPING A BIT QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND
THE QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS. LAV DATA ALSO INDICATING LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL
ADVECTING IN BY 07-09Z.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AT
LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER HOLDING OFF A FEW MORE HOURS...EXPECT SOME FROST TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WITH CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS. SO WILL KEEP
THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT KFOK GETS TO 32 DEGREES BUT FREEZING TEMPS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE WARNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH FRI.

VFR TO START...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BECOMES THE CHALLENGE
TONIGHT. BEFORE THE LOSS OF VIS SAT...STRATO CU OVER THE ATLANTIC
WAS ERODING. SOME 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AT 00Z COMPARED TO SAT IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...SINCE AN ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. QUESTION IS TIMING AND EXTENT. SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND
NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED
THE STRATUS INTO KLGA AND INCLUDED TEMPO`S AT KEWR/KTEB WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE HERE. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID- LATE
FRI MORNING.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN.

  NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. TIMING OF
MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z FRI.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION MAY BE 30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST BY LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRI.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-078>081-
     177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 180203
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1003 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
WEATHER THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN NEW
YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM... CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING NEARLY AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT... BUT
LOWS SHOULD STILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S IN THE DRY AIR. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NE FROM MI TO QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA FRI EVE. THIS IS FASTER THAN MODELS HAD FIRST
SUGGESTED. THE MOISTURE HAS MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. SHOWERS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NRN CWA AND PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE AVP.
SHOWERS MAY COME IN FRI AFTN AND NOT PULL OUT UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN RIGHT WITH THE FRONT THOUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ANYWHERE.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAXES DOWN SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPS DO NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WAA STARTS AGAIN
SAT AFTN.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTH INTO CANADA WILL BE OVER
THE AREA SAT NGT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AGAIN.

SUNDAY BACK TO DEEP SW FLOW SO TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE 60S.
NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER SO DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING
UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE SUN-MON TIME
FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE MON NITE-TUE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH
MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT 5-10
KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KAVP...BUT THIS BEARS MONITORING. SOME VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 PM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS
AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 180043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
843 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND MADE JUST MADE MINOR EDITS TO
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRATUS LAYER TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREAD COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THINKING IF THE CLOUD COVER OCCURS...IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY HOW FAR
INLAND THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL GET. BUT ALSO STILL EXPECTING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SO SKY COVER FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT AS WELL.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH FRI.

VFR TO START...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BECOMES THE CHALLENGE
TONIGHT. BEFORE THE LOSS OF VIS SAT...STRATO CU OVER THE ATLANTIC
WAS ERODING. SOME 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AT 00Z COMPARED TO SAT IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...SINCE AN ELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. QUESTION IS TIMING AND EXTENT. SOME OF THE
HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A PATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVES ACROSS LI AND
NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z. THIS CONTINUED TO
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH HAVE EXTENDED
THE STRATUS INTO KLGA AND INCLUDED TEMPO`S AT KEWR/KTEB WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE HERE. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCT OUT MID- LATE
FRI MORNING.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN.

  NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. TIMING OF
MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z FRI.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION MAY BE 30-40 DEGREES RIGHT OF FORECAST BY LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: EXTENT OF MVFR CIGS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVERNIGHT WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR INCLUSION IN
PREVAILING GROUP. COULD IMPACT MORNING PUSH.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR CIGS MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FRI.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
.TUE/TUE NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC







000
FXUS61 KBUF 180015
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
815 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE
IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN
VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KALY 180014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
814 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT...A THIN CANOPY OF CI/CS WAS ACROSS THE REGION
PER METARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THIS WILL THIN OUT FURTHER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO AN
OTHERWISE ONGOING EXCELLENT FORECAST.

AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBGM 172357
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
757 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
WEATHER THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN NEW
YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S IN THE DRY AIR. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NE FROM MI TO QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA FRI EVE. THIS IS FASTER THAN MODELS HAD FIRST
SUGGESTED. THE MOISTURE HAS MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. SHOWERS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NRN CWA AND PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE AVP.
SHOWERS MAY COME IN FRI AFTN AND NOT PULL OUT UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN RIGHT WITH THE FRONT THOUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ANYWHERE.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAXES DOWN SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPS DO NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WAA STARTS AGAIN
SAT AFTN.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTH INTO CANADA WILL BE OVER
THE AREA SAT NGT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AGAIN.

SUNDAY BACK TO DEEP SW FLOW SO TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE 60S.
NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER SO DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING
UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE SUN-MON TIME
FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE MON NITE-TUE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH
MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT 5-10
KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KAVP...BUT THIS BEARS MONITORING. SOME VFR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 PM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS
AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 172347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH LATEST UPDATE WAS TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS AND BLEND WITH EVENING
FORECAST. QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 172329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH LATEST UPDATE WAS TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS AND BLEND WITH EVENING
FORECAST. QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES







000
FXUS61 KOKX 172326
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND MADE JUST MADE MINOR EDITS TO
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRATUS LAYER TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREAD COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THINKING IF THE CLOUD COVER OCCURS...IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY HOW FAR
INLAND THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL GET. BUT ALSO STILL EXPECTING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SO SKY COVER FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT AS WELL.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.

A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS. AFTER
02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING BKN CIGS
AROUND THE CITY TERMINALS NEAR 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF
STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF
MOVING INLAND. TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHED THE STRATUS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL STILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL TAFS
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY. ANY
CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO 20KT
TIL 02Z. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTN...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC









000
FXUS61 KBUF 172139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
539 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KOKX 172038
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
438 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
OVER THE OCEAN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER
WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UNSURE JUST
HOW MUCH FURTHER INLAND THE CLOUDS WILL TRAVEL.

AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCHES TO FROST ADVISORIES...AND KEEP THE
FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT UP.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.

A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS. AFTER
02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING BKN CIGS
AROUND THE CITY TERMINALS NEAR 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF
STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF
MOVING INLAND. TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHED THE STRATUS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL STILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL TAFS
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY. ANY
CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO 20KT
TIL 02Z. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTN...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC







000
FXUS61 KALY 172029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF SITES AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CALM WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 172005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF





000
FXUS61 KBTV 171935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE
WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES









000
FXUS61 KOKX 171934
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERN/QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY
OVER THE OCEAN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THINKING IS THAT CLOUD COVER
WILL OVERSPREAD AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UNSURE JUST
HOW MUCH FURTHER INLAND THE CLOUDS WILL TRAVEL.

AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL CONVERT THE FREEZE WATCHES TO FROST ADVISORIES...AND KEEP THE
FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT UP.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY.

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS.
AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT AFT 02Z FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING OVC CONDITIONS
ACROSS CITY TERMINALS AOB 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS
OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING
INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY BUT MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING
ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO
20KT. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 171916
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DRY
WEATHER THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY, MOSTLY IN NEW
YORK. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING AGAIN INTO THE 20S IN THE DRY AIR. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

A WEAK SFC LOW MOVING NE FROM MI TO QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA FRI EVE. THIS IS FASTER THAN MODELS HAD FIRST
SUGGESTED. THE MOISTURE HAS MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. SHOWERS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NRN CWA AND PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE AVP.
SHOWERS MAY COME IN FRI AFTN AND NOT PULL OUT UNTIL EARLY SAT
MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN RIGHT WITH THE FRONT THOUGH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ANYWHERE.

COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAXES DOWN SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPS DO NOT GET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND WAA STARTS AGAIN
SAT AFTN.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTH INTO CANADA WILL BE OVER
THE AREA SAT NGT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AGAIN.

SUNDAY BACK TO DEEP SW FLOW SO TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE 60S.
NEXT SYSTEM SLOWER SO DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING
UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE SUN-MON TIME
FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE MON NITE-TUE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH
MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT
10G18 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 5-10 KTS AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MARINE
LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KAVP...BUT THIS
BEARS MONITORING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 PM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

SATURDAY AGAIN NOT THAT WINDY AND RH WILL BE HIGHER. SUNDAY WINDS
AGAIN UNDER 20 MPH BUT THE RH WILL BE UNDER 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBTV 171907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBUF 171901
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF








000
FXUS61 KOKX 171811
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE WITH MAIN CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAY.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NYC...CENTRAL NASSAU...WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND PORTIONS OF NE NJ. THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
SEABREEZE...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES THERE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS.
AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT AFT 02Z FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING OVC CONDITIONS
ACROSS CITY TERMINALS AOB 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS
OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING
INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY BUT MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING
ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO
20KT. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS
WIND GUSTS STRUGGLE TO REACH 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR THE OCEAN WHERE GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE
AROUND 6-7 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAINS UP THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&


.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KBGM 171810
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
210 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S ON THE
WAY TO THE U40S TO M50S. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN NEW
ENGLAND...LITTLE MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT BUT
WINDS WILL RISE TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH SO NO RED FLAG WARNINGS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE
ON TRACK. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL CONT TO BE ON PERIPHERY OF ERN CANADA SFC HIGH WITH SRLY FLOW
CONTG OVRNGT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN
REGARD TO MARINE LYR MVG NORTH INTO POCONOS. 00Z GFS BRINGS OVC DECK
INTO SERN ZONES AFT 06Z WHILE NAM KEEPS IT OUT OF CWA WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW CLDS. CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR FLOW
PATTERN AT H9 WITH BL WINDS OUT OF THE ENE, MAKING IT TUFF TO GET
MUCH MOISTURE UP INTO POCONOS REGION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MARINE LYR
CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND GFS IS ALREADY OVERDONE
WITH EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT GFS MAY BE
TOO BULLISH WITH LOW CLDS MVG IN FM THE SOUTH AND WL JUST GO PCLDY
ACRS EXTREME SRN ZONES TONIGHT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, AFTER 2 NGTS IN A ROW OF LOW TEMP RECORDS
BEING THREATENED IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF TONIGHT WL MAKE IT 3 IN A
ROW. TEMP RECORDS OF 28/25/22 AT AVP/BGM/SYR LOOK AS THO THEY WL RMN
INTACT.

H5 WV NOW LOCATED ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST WL LIFT NORTH TWD JAMES BAY
TONIGHT AS WV GETS PICKED UP BY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OF
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY ACRS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
WL DRAG SFC FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LKS DOWN INTO MID-MS
RVR VLY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WL PLAY FOR TONIGHT IS TO GRADUALLY
INCRS HIGH CLDS ACRS NWRN CNTYS BY DAYBREAK.

MOST OF THE FRCG WITH CDFNT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY LOW LVLS WL LEAD TO JUST AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR EVEN SPRINKLES DRG THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WL
SETTLE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NRML IN THE U50S/NR 60 EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN CATS WHERE THEY WL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LWR 50S.

FROPA MVS THRU BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AND
LGT SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFT 06Z SATURDAY. QPF AMNTS WL
BE LIGHT AS BEST LIFT HEADS UP INTO NRN NY STATE AND SRN CANADA.
OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP INTO THE M30S BY SAT MRNG WHICH IS STILL SOME 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN PRVS DAY.

AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON NRLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WL RMN ACRS ERN
ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS. HV PULLED POPS AFT 18Z AND HV CLRD SKIES AS
1035MB HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE NORTH, FINISHING OUT THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER LOW
AMPLITUDE...FAST MOVING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST SLOWING
UP A FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE SUN-MON TIME
FRAME AND HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK INTO THE MON NITE-TUE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO THEN SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK. THEN...BOTH
MODELS HINT AT A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A S-SELY DIRECTION AT
10G18 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 5-10 KTS AT NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MARINE
LAYER OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KAVP...BUT THIS
BEARS MONITORING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...VFR WITH AREAS MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR IF FOG DEVELOPS.

TUE...SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
FIRE WEATHER...









000
FXUS61 KBTV 171735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 171732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF
SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY WEST CANADA CREEK AND AT
FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH ARE BOTH CURRENTLY HOLDING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON THE FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS WILL BE
DROPPED LATER TODAY. AS FOR RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER...IT IS
IN MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171719 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.  MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOO AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.
06Z AND 12Z NAM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WITH A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT AND MAINLY FOCUS ON THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SREF SHOW
LOWER QPF WITH EACH FORECAST RUN...SUPPORTING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN NY.  IT MAY
INDEED RAIN...BUT THE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PALTRY...MAINLY
WETTING THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST.  WILL FINE TUNE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING BACK
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 5-6PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY WHILE
CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF










000
FXUS61 KBTV 171718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171718
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.   THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.  MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOO AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.
06Z AND 12Z NAM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WITH A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT AND MAINLY FOCUS ON THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SREF SHOW A
LOWER QPF WITH EACH FORECAST RUN...SUPPORTING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN NY.  IT MAY
INDEED RAIN...BUT THE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PALTRY...MAINLY
WETTING THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...AND PROBABLY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST.  WILL FINE TUNE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING BACK
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 6PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY WHILE
CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 171701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 171454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS REGION. THEY ARE THICKER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DID TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT. UPDATED
WINDS WILL LATEST GUIDANCE. CIRRUS SHOULD THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 171430
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE 50S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...

DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 30S ON THE
WAY TO THE U40S TO M50S. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN NEW
ENGLAND...LITTLE MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT BUT
WINDS WILL RISE TO ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH SO NO RED FLAG WARNINGS.

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE
ON TRACK. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL CONT TO BE ON PERIPHERY OF ERN CANADA SFC HIGH WITH SRLY FLOW
CONTG OVRNGT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN
REGARD TO MARINE LYR MVG NORTH INTO POCONOS. 00Z GFS BRINGS OVC DECK
INTO SERN ZONES AFT 06Z WHILE NAM KEEPS IT OUT OF CWA WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW CLDS. CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR FLOW
PATTERN AT H9 WITH BL WINDS OUT OF THE ENE, MAKING IT TUFF TO GET
MUCH MOISTURE UP INTO POCONOS REGION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MARINE LYR
CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND GFS IS ALREADY OVERDONE
WITH EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT GFS MAY BE
TOO BULLISH WITH LOW CLDS MVG IN FM THE SOUTH AND WL JUST GO PCLDY
ACRS EXTREME SRN ZONES TONIGHT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, AFTER 2 NGTS IN A ROW OF LOW TEMP RECORDS
BEING THREATENED IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF TONIGHT WL MAKE IT 3 IN A
ROW. TEMP RECORDS OF 28/25/22 AT AVP/BGM/SYR LOOK AS THO THEY WL RMN
INTACT.

H5 WV NOW LOCATED ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST WL LIFT NORTH TWD JAMES BAY
TONIGHT AS WV GETS PICKED UP BY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OF
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY ACRS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
WL DRAG SFC FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LKS DOWN INTO MID-MS
RVR VLY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WL PLAY FOR TONIGHT IS TO GRADUALLY
INCRS HIGH CLDS ACRS NWRN CNTYS BY DAYBREAK.

MOST OF THE FRCG WITH CDFNT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY LOW LVLS WL LEAD TO JUST AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR EVEN SPRINKLES DRG THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WL
SETTLE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NRML IN THE U50S/NR 60 EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN CATS WHERE THEY WL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LWR 50S.

FROPA MVS THRU BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AND
LGT SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFT 06Z SATURDAY. QPF AMNTS WL
BE LIGHT AS BEST LIFT HEADS UP INTO NRN NY STATE AND SRN CANADA.
OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP INTO THE M30S BY SAT MRNG WHICH IS STILL SOME 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN PRVS DAY.

AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON NRLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WL RMN ACRS ERN
ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS. HV PULLED POPS AFT 18Z AND HV CLRD SKIES AS
1035MB HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE NORTH, FINISHING OUT THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 AM THU UPDATE... NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS ATTM...AS THE 00Z THU
MODEL SUITE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS.

A GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN IS STILL BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE MED RNG PD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO NRN STREAM S/WV
AND FRNTL PASSAGES ABT EVERY 48-72 HRS...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY
LGT PCPN.

THE START OF THE PD STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY SUN-SUN NGT...WITH
SHWRS SLOWLY SPREADING SEWD ACRS THE FA LTR MON INTO EARLY TUE.
DRIER WX SHOULD FOLLOW AGN LTR TUE AND WED...ALG WITH AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

DAILY HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE FAR FROM CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL (MOSTLY IN
THE 60S SUN AND MON...PERHAPS COOLING A BIT INTO THE 50S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

PREV DISC... 12 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRI...WITH JUST PATCHY
HIGH-LVL CLDNS.

ONE OF OUR WEATHER MODELS IS STILL SUGGESTING THAT A LWR CLOUD
DECK WILL DVLP AT KAVP LATE IN THE PD (ARND OR JUST AFTER 06Z
FRI). IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...THEN MVFR CIGS WOULD BE QUITE PSBL.
HOWEVER...ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEARLY HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT LWR CLDS STAY
TO OUR S...WITH VFR CONTINUING.

LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME SE TDY AND THIS
EVE...INCREASING TO 8-12 KT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KITH (INTO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE).

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
10 AM THU UPDATE...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL DRY TODAY AND
FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR 10 HOUR FUELS TO BE UNDER 10 PERCENT.

SO THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDS ON ANY
FLAGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN/TAC
NEAR TERM...PVN/TAC
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...TAC







000
FXUS61 KOKX 171429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH
MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONTS OF THE AREA. NOT QUITE READY TO INCREASE
CLOUD COVER TOO MUCH.

OTHERWISE...WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND
900-875 HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY.
EXPECT READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

E WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET
FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE
TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 08Z FRIDAY BUT
MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT
19Z. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20
KT THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHING STRATUS OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY
DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC/MALOIT/SEARS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KBUF 171425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.   THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.  MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOO AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.
06Z AND 12Z NAM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WITH A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT AND MAINLY FOCUS ON THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SREF SHOW A
LOWER QPF WITH EACH FORECAST RUN...SUPPORTING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN NY.  IT MAY
INDEED RAIN...BUT THE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PALTRY...MAINLY
WETTING THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...AND PROBABLY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST.  WILL FINE TUNE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING BACK
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 6PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY WHILE
CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE GOING INTO THE MID-DAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING VALUES. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 0C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE TO 50 IN THE
VALLEYS...LOW/MID 40S MID-SLOPE AND AROUND 30 AT THE SUMMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KOKX 171155
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA AS OF 11Z SO HAVE ALLOWED THE FREEZE WARNING TO BE
CANCELLED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR CT AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
14Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF AN AREA TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS OF COASTAL
CT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LONG ISLAND AND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE COMING NIGHT.

WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AT A MINIMUM.

ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875
HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

E WINDS 10-15 KT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 08Z FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WINDS 15-20 KT...AND WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20
KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY
DUE TO PERSISTENT SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/SEARS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 171137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER MORNING OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. LOOKS LIKE MONTPELIER SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW THIS
MORNING WITH AN UNOFFICIAL LOW OF 14 SO FAR...THE OLD RECORD WAS
17 SET BACK IN 2003. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE AND WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM YESTERDAY AND
GET CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 171128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER MORNING OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. LOOKS LIKE MONTPELIER SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW THIS
MORNING WITH AN UNOFFICIAL LOW OF 14 SO FAR...THE OLD RECORD WAS 17
SET BACK IN 2003. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE AND WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM YESTERDAY AND
GET CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBUF 171118
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
718 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE WEDNESDAY LEVELS...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE FILTERED AT TIMES BY PASSING CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SOMEWHAT
FASTER TIMING TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBGM 171040
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE 50S, THEN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL CONT TO BE ON PERIPHERY OF ERN CANADA SFC HIGH WITH SRLY FLOW
CONTG OVRNGT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN
REGARD TO MARINE LYR MVG NORTH INTO POCONOS. 00Z GFS BRINGS OVC DECK
INTO SERN ZONES AFT 06Z WHILE NAM KEEPS IT OUT OF CWA WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW CLDS. CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR FLOW
PATTERN AT H9 WITH BL WINDS OUT OF THE ENE, MAKING IT TUFF TO GET
MUCH MOISTURE UP INTO POCONOS REGION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MARINE LYR
CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND GFS IS ALREADY OVERDONE
WITH EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT GFS MAY BE
TOO BULLISH WITH LOW CLDS MVG IN FM THE SOUTH AND WL JUST GO PCLDY
ACRS EXTREME SRN ZONES TONIGHT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, AFTER 2 NGTS IN A ROW OF LOW TEMP RECORDS
BEING THREATENED IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF TONIGHT WL MAKE IT 3 IN A
ROW. TEMP RECORDS OF 28/25/22 AT AVP/BGM/SYR LOOK AS THO THEY WL RMN
INTACT.

H5 WV NOW LOCATED ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST WL LIFT NORTH TWD JAMES BAY
TONIGHT AS WV GETS PICKED UP BY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OF
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY ACRS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
WL DRAG SFC FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LKS DOWN INTO MID-MS
RVR VLY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WL PLAY FOR TONIGHT IS TO GRADUALLY
INCRS HIGH CLDS ACRS NWRN CNTYS BY DAYBREAK.

MOST OF THE FRCG WITH CDFNT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY LOW LVLS WL LEAD TO JUST AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR EVEN SPRINKLES DRG THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WL
SETTLE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NRML IN THE U50S/NR 60 EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN CATS WHERE THEY WL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LWR 50S.

FROPA MVS THRU BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AND
LGT SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFT 06Z SATURDAY. QPF AMNTS WL
BE LIGHT AS BEST LIFT HEADS UP INTO NRN NY STATE AND SRN CANADA.
OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP INTO THE M30S BY SAT MRNG WHICH IS STILL SOME 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN PRVS DAY.

AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON NRLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WL RMN ACRS ERN
ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS. HV PULLED POPS AFT 18Z AND HV CLRD SKIES AS
1035MB HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE NORTH, FINISHING OUT THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 AM THU UPDATE... NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS ATTM...AS THE 00Z THU
MODEL SUITE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS.

A GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN IS STILL BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE MED RNG PD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO NRN STREAM S/WV
AND FRNTL PASSAGES ABT EVERY 48-72 HRS...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY
LGT PCPN.

THE START OF THE PD STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY SUN-SUN NGT...WITH
SHWRS SLOWLY SPREADING SEWD ACRS THE FA LTR MON INTO EARLY TUE.
DRIER WX SHOULD FOLLOW AGN LTR TUE AND WED...ALG WITH AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

DAILY HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE FAR FROM CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL (MOSTLY IN
THE 60S SUN AND MON...PERHAPS COOLING A BIT INTO THE 50S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

PREV DISC... 12 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRI...WITH JUST PATCHY
HIGH-LVL CLDNS.

ONE OF OUR WEATHER MODELS IS STILL SUGGESTING THAT A LWR CLOUD
DECK WILL DVLP AT KAVP LATE IN THE PD (ARND OR JUST AFTER 06Z
FRI). IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...THEN MVFR CIGS WOULD BE QUITE PSBL.
HOWEVER...ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEARLY HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT LWR CLDS STAY
TO OUR S...WITH VFR CONTINUING.

LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME SE TDY AND THIS
EVE...INCREASING TO 8-12 KT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KITH (INTO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE).

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN UP TODAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 170952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR BUT COLD MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS TO THE NORTH MAINLY ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOWS WILL BOTTOM JUST ABOVE RECORD LEVELS IN MOST CASES.

JUST VERY MINOR TWEAKING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 170847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...A FRIGID NIGHT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. IT IS CALM
AND MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS NORTH. LOCALLY AT ALBANY
WE WERE SITTING AT 28...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE YET TO ECLIPSE THE
OLD LOW RECORD OF 21 SET BACK IN 1971.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 170840
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...ANOTHER MORNING OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. LOOKS LIKE MONTPELIER SET ANOTHER RECORD WITH A CURRENT
TEMPERATURE OF 16...THE OLD RECORD WAS 17 SET BACK IN 2003.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE
PLACE AND WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM YESTERDAY AND GET CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBUF 170831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
431 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE WEDNESDAY LEVELS...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE FILTERED AT TIMES BY PASSING CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SOMEWHAT
FASTER TIMING TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 170805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE WEDNESDAY LEVELS...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE FILTERED AT TIMES BY PASSING CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SOMEWHAT
FASTER TIMING TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KOKX 170747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
SO FAR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
FREEZING IN THE WARNING AREA...THAT CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPERATURES
JUST TOUCHING 32...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA
BEFORE BEGINNING TO RISE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS A RESULT WILL
LEAVE FREEZE WARNING UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS MORNING.

WEAK...BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING CLOUD COVER...OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AT A MINIMUM.

ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND 900-875
HPA. SO HAVE USED MIXING DOWN FROM THERE...BLENDED WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXPECT
READINGS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST.

NOT WANTING TO HAVE UP MULTIPLE FROST FREEZE HEADLINES...WILL
HOLD OFF IN HOISTING A FREEZE WATCH FOR ROCKLAND/N WESTCHESTER AND
W PORTIONS OF UNION/ESSEX/BERGEN COUNTIES...AND A FROST ADVISORY
FOR LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CT...S WESTCHESTER AND THE E PORTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES IN NE NJ FOR TONIGHT. WILL LET
DAY-SHIFT ISSUE WHEN THEY TAKE DOWN THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z
FRI...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

N/NNE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 KT THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WINDS VEER TO
THE EAST AFT 12Z...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 080-100 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
120-140 MAG THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO 060-080 MAG THIS MORNING...AND THEN TO
090-110 MAG AFT 19Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH EXPECTATION OF GUSTS ON ALL WATERS TO AROUND 25 KT...HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCA TO COVER ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT
SWELLS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.



&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 32
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-073-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KBGM 170746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE 50S, THEN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL CONT TO BE ON PERIPHERY OF ERN CANADA SFC HIGH WITH SRLY FLOW
CONTG OVRNGT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN
REGARD TO MARINE LYR MVG NORTH INTO POCONOS. 00Z GFS BRINGS OVC DECK
INTO SERN ZONES AFT 06Z WHILE NAM KEEPS IT OUT OF CWA WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW CLDS. CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR FLOW
PATTERN AT H9 WITH BL WINDS OUT OF THE ENE, MAKING IT TUFF TO GET
MUCH MOISTURE UP INTO POCONOS REGION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MARINE LYR
CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND GFS IS ALREADY OVERDONE
WITH EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT GFS MAY BE
TOO BULLISH WITH LOW CLDS MVG IN FM THE SOUTH AND WL JUST GO PCLDY
ACRS EXTREME SRN ZONES TONIGHT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, AFTER 2 NGTS IN A ROW OF LOW TEMP RECORDS
BEING THREATENED IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF TONIGHT WL MAKE IT 3 IN A
ROW. TEMP RECORDS OF 28/25/22 AT AVP/BGM/SYR LOOK AS THO THEY WL RMN
INTACT.

H5 WV NOW LOCATED ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST WL LIFT NORTH TWD JAMES BAY
TONIGHT AS WV GETS PICKED UP BY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OF
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY ACRS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
WL DRAG SFC FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LKS DOWN INTO MID-MS
RVR VLY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WL PLAY FOR TONIGHT IS TO GRADUALLY
INCRS HIGH CLDS ACRS NWRN CNTYS BY DAYBREAK.

MOST OF THE FRCG WITH CDFNT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY LOW LVLS WL LEAD TO JUST AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR EVEN SPRINKLES DRG THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WL
SETTLE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NRML IN THE U50S/NR 60 EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN CATS WHERE THEY WL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LWR 50S.

FROPA MVS THRU BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AND
LGT SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFT 06Z SATURDAY. QPF AMNTS WL
BE LIGHT AS BEST LIFT HEADS UP INTO NRN NY STATE AND SRN CANADA.
OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP INTO THE M30S BY SAT MRNG WHICH IS STILL SOME 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN PRVS DAY.

AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON NRLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WL RMN ACRS ERN
ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS. HV PULLED POPS AFT 18Z AND HV CLRD SKIES AS
1035MB HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE NORTH, FINISHING OUT THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 AM THU UPDATE... NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS ATTM...AS THE 00Z THU
MODEL SUITE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS.

A GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATN IS STILL BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE MED RNG PD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO NRN STREAM S/WV
AND FRNTL PASSAGES ABT EVERY 48-72 HRS...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY
LGT PCPN.

THE START OF THE PD STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY SUN-SUN NGT...WITH
SHWRS SLOWLY SPREADING SEWD ACRS THE FA LTR MON INTO EARLY TUE.
DRIER WX SHOULD FOLLOW AGN LTR TUE AND WED...ALG WITH AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS.

DAILY HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE FAR FROM CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL (MOSTLY IN
THE 60S SUN AND MON...PERHAPS COOLING A BIT INTO THE 50S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

PREV DISC... 12 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRI...WITH JUST
PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS.

ONE OF OUR WEATHER MODELS IS SUGGESTING THAT A LWR CLOUD DECK WILL
DVLP AT KAVP LATE IN THE PD (03-06Z FRI). IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THEN MVFR CIGS WOULD BE QUITE PSBL.
HOWEVER...ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEARLY HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT LWR CLDS STAY TO
OUR S...WITH VFR CONTINUING.

LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME SE TDY AND THIS
EVE...INCREASING TO 8-12 KT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KITH (INTO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE).

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN UP TODAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ/TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 170733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
WITH READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO MATCH TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DRY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN
COMPARISON TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
I`VE OFFERED SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBGM 170729
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE 50S, THEN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL CONT TO BE ON PERIPHERY OF ERN CANADA SFC HIGH WITH SRLY FLOW
CONTG OVRNGT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN MODELS FOR LATE TONIGHT IN
REGARD TO MARINE LYR MVG NORTH INTO POCONOS. 00Z GFS BRINGS OVC DECK
INTO SERN ZONES AFT 06Z WHILE NAM KEEPS IT OUT OF CWA WITH PERHAPS
JUST A FEW CLDS. CLOSER INSPECTION OF MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR FLOW
PATTERN AT H9 WITH BL WINDS OUT OF THE ENE, MAKING IT TUFF TO GET
MUCH MOISTURE UP INTO POCONOS REGION. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MARINE LYR
CURRENTLY RESIDES OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS AND GFS IS ALREADY OVERDONE
WITH EXTENT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT GFS MAY BE
TOO BULLISH WITH LOW CLDS MVG IN FM THE SOUTH AND WL JUST GO PCLDY
ACRS EXTREME SRN ZONES TONIGHT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT, AFTER 2 NGTS IN A ROW OF LOW TEMP RECORDS
BEING THREATENED IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF TONIGHT WL MAKE IT 3 IN A
ROW. TEMP RECORDS OF 28/25/22 AT AVP/BGM/SYR LOOK AS THO THEY WL RMN
INTACT.

H5 WV NOW LOCATED ACRS THE UPR MIDWEST WL LIFT NORTH TWD JAMES BAY
TONIGHT AS WV GETS PICKED UP BY PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF OF
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY ACRS CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS
WL DRAG SFC FRONTAL BNDRY THRU THE CNTRL GREAT LKS DOWN INTO MID-MS
RVR VLY. ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WL PLAY FOR TONIGHT IS TO GRADUALLY
INCRS HIGH CLDS ACRS NWRN CNTYS BY DAYBREAK.

MOST OF THE FRCG WITH CDFNT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH OF CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DRY LOW LVLS WL LEAD TO JUST AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR EVEN SPRINKLES DRG THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WL
SETTLE OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO NRML IN THE U50S/NR 60 EXCEPT FOR HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN CATS WHERE THEY WL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LWR 50S.

FROPA MVS THRU BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AND
LGT SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AFT 06Z SATURDAY. QPF AMNTS WL
BE LIGHT AS BEST LIFT HEADS UP INTO NRN NY STATE AND SRN CANADA.
OVRNGT LOWS WL DIP INTO THE M30S BY SAT MRNG WHICH IS STILL SOME 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN PRVS DAY.

AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON NRLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WL RMN ACRS ERN
ZONES DRG THE MRNG HRS. HV PULLED POPS AFT 18Z AND HV CLRD SKIES AS
1035MB HIPRES BUILDS IN FM THE NORTH, FINISHING OUT THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRI...WITH JUST
PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS.

ONE OF OUR WEATHER MODELS IS SUGGESTING THAT A LWR CLOUD DECK WILL
DVLP AT KAVP LATE IN THE PD (03-06Z FRI). IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THEN MVFR CIGS WOULD BE QUITE PSBL.
HOWEVER...ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEARLY HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT LWR CLDS STAY TO
OUR S...WITH VFR CONTINUING.

LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME SE TDY AND THIS
EVE...INCREASING TO 8-12 KT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KITH (INTO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE).

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
TODAY AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 20-35%), SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SHOULD REMAIN UP TODAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...PVN





000
FXUS61 KBGM 170618
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON THURSDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRI...WITH JUST
PATCHY HIGH-LVL CLDNS.

ONE OF OUR WEATHER MODELS IS SUGGESTING THAT A LWR CLOUD DECK WILL
DVLP AT KAVP LATE IN THE PD (03-06Z FRI). IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...THEN MVFR CIGS WOULD BE QUITE PSBL.
HOWEVER...ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT NEARLY HIGH ENUF TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT LWR CLDS STAY TO
OUR S...WITH VFR CONTINUING.

LGT WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME SE TDY AND THIS
EVE...INCREASING TO 8-12 KT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KITH (INTO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE).

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE UP AS A RESULT OF THE
SOAKING RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 170539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
WITH READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO MATCH TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DRY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN
COMPARISON TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
I`VE OFFERED SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED CLOUDS/MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG






000
FXUS61 KOKX 170538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING.
THIS WOULD HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG
ISLAND...AND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z
FRI...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

N/NNE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 4-8 KT THROUGH AROUND 12Z. WINDS VEER
TO THE EAST AFT 12Z...AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
8-12 KT AFT 03Z FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-073-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KBUF 170531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ON UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER
CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...THE CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS
NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON
THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST
ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBTV 170528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO MATCH TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DRY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 170517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS
21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM












000
FXUS61 KALY 170516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21
DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KALY 170515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 170504
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON THURSDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND WL BUILD EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTN. THIS WL VEER FLOW ARND TO THE SOUTHEAST TDA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN BTWN AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND LOPRES IN THE UPR
MIDWEST. THIS WL BRING INCRSG WINDS TO BTWN 10-15KTS OCNLY GUSTING
DRG THE AFTN.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO NR -4C AND WITH MIXING TO H8 THIS WUD YIELD MAX
TEMPS ARND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. HWVR FULL SUN, SRLY FLOW AND DRY
DWPTS WL LKLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS FOR TDA AND HV GONE CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS WITH VLY TEMPS IN THE M50S AND HIGHER TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50F. THESE TEMPS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDA IN THE OH
VLY UNDER THE SAME SFC PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SCATTERED CI AS SFC HIGH
PRES MOVES FROM THE VCNTY TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST AT 8-12 KNOTS BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THUR NIGHT TO FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR AVP. MVFR IN CENTRAL NY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE UP AS A RESULT OF THE
SOAKING RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 170248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INTO GRIDS. 1038 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SETTLES
ATOP THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
DUE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKING
AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

A SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED
BELOW. WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...A FEW WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV WHICH WERE
PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR RIVERS IN YOUR SPECIFIC
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBUF 170245
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THU MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ON UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER
CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...THE CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS
NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON
THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST
ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KOKX 170238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1038 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD
HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN
BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR THRU 00Z FRI. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VERY LOW PROB OF OCNL MVFR
CIGS AFT 00Z.

N/NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
10 TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 170153
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD
HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN
BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR THRU 00Z FRI. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VERY LOW PROB OF OCNL MVFR
CIGS AFT 00Z.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
10 TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 170145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBGM 170033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
833 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON THURSDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST DATABASE UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DEWPOINTS VERY LOW...BUT EXPECTED TO REBOUND JUST A TAD LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH RETREATS. STILL A NEAR PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT AND RECORD LOWS AT BGM/SYR/AVP ARE 22/22/23. CURRENT FORECAST
LOWS WILL BE NEAR THOSE VALUES AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS. NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SCATTERED CI AS SFC HIGH
PRES MOVES FROM THE VCNTY TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST AT 8-12 KNOTS BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THUR NIGHT TO FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR AVP. MVFR IN CENTRAL NY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE UP AS A RESULT OF THE
SOAKING RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 170007
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
807 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THU MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BOTH THE BLACK RIVER AT
BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER FALLING BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR THESE SITES...HOWEVER THE
CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN
RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED
THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE
AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBTV 162357
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
757 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS.
STILL LOOKING AT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH
SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW. WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV
WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR RIVERS IN YOUR
SPECIFIC AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBGM 162345
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
745 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORDS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS NEAR 20 IN MANY PLACES. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. RECORD
LOWS AT BGM/SYR/AVP ARE 22/22/23 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
LOWS NEAR THOSE VALUES AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS. NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SCATTERED CI AS SFC HIGH
PRES MOVES FROM THE VCNTY TO EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST AT 8-12 KNOTS BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THUR NIGHT TO FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR AVP. MVFR IN CENTRAL NY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 162337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
737 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z AND SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING...BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER
WIND FLOW MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COMPLICATING THIS FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD
HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES
ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN
BE MET.

NO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT
LEAST COME CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS NE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR THRU 00Z FRI. IN THE EXTENDED TAFS...VERY LOW PROB OF OCNL MVFR
CIGS AFT 00Z.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND VEER TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E THU MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
10 TO 20 KT THRU THE AFTN.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...GC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 162335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT..A STRONG NEAR 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH
IS 21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 162019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
SNOWFALL HAS MELTED IN MOST EXPOSED AREAS THIS MORNING UNDER THE
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER
BEING RIGHT OVER OUR CWA. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD
LOW WHICH IS 21 THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK AFTER SOME RIVERS REACHING CREST SOMETIME
TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 162000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY BUT ALL IN ALL A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TAP.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
IN STORE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP HOLD TEMPS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THURSDAY WARM
AIR ADVECTS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO MINUS FIVE TO ZERO SO
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR





000
FXUS61 KOKX 161953
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY AND LASTS
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS
DETERMINING WHERE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITHIN
THE ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED. COMPLICATING
THE FORECAST IS A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE JUST
TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AND
PREVENT DECOUPLING. THIS WOULD HAVE MORE IMPLICATIONS OVER COASTAL
CT...LONG ISLAND...AND ZONES ADJACENT TO THE CITY WHERE FREEZE
WARNING CRITERIA MIGHT NOT THEN BE MET.

THINKING IS THAT THE CITY...HUDSON AND NASSAU COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED HERE.
EASTERN HALVES OF UNION AND ESSEX COUNTIES COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITHOUT A WARNING
HERE. THE REST OF THE ZONES IN THEIR GROWING SEASON WILL HAVE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NO LOW
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TIE OR BREAK RECORDS...BUT WILL AT LEAST COME
CLOSE. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS.
MIXING WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 925MB WHERE THE FCST
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C AT THIS HEIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE NEAR THE COLDER NAM
MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ONLY 45-50 FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A NE TO ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS ADVECTS IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED....SO NO FREEZE WATCH/WARNING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT 925
MB. NAM...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...GFS SHOWS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING FRIDAY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT POPS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW
THIS MOISTURE IS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUN
ANGLE THAT COULD ERODE CLOUDS/MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE DRIZZLE DUE TO SHALLOW DEPTH
OF THE MOISTURE. SIDED WITH THE COLDER NAM MOS ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND EAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY LOOKS
LIMITED SO HAVE DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKENDS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY...CROSSING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND
NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS
NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR.

NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS WILL END AROUND
22Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 5-12 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE E THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND GUST AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
A BUILDING SE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING
MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BUILDING SEAS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO
AN ONSHORE FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. A DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN ABOVE THE OCEAN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SCA
COULD BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 32
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 35
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 37
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 34
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 31

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     073-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ004-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/FIG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 161940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS
STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADATIONAL
COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A
SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW.
WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND
PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
FOR RIVERS IN YOUR SPECIFIC AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 161920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF
CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING
AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBGM 161837
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORDS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS NEAR 20 IN MANY PLACES. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. RECORD
LOWS AT BGM/SYR/AVP ARE 22/22/23 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
LOWS NEAR THOSE VALUES AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS. NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. NO BIG UPPER LEVEL TROFS OR RIDGES SO
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT GOES SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
MONDAY. WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL RAIN. CHC SHOWERS SUN NGT TO
MON IN NY THEN CHC EVERYWHERE MON NGT AND TUE. QUESTIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL CLEAR TUE NGT AND WED IN NW FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE. NW FLOW NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT LIKE THE LAST
12 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...

VFR THIS AFTN TO THU AFTN.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FINALLY GIVING UP TO THE DRY
SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOW VFR CIGS AT ITH BGM ELM
WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 20Z. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MAYBE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THURSDAY.

NW TO N WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THURSDAY
MORNING E TO SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THUR AFTN TO FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT TO SAT...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT TO MON...VFR AVP. MVFR IN CENTRAL NY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 161811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTEREND NEAR ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY BUT ALL IN ALL A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TAP.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
IN STORE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP HOLD TEMPS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THURSDAY WARM
AIR ADVECTS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO MINUS FIVE TO ZERO SO
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBGM 161811
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORDS TONIGHT WITH
LOWS NEAR 20 IN MANY PLACES. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 ON
THURSDAY AND WELL INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS THURSDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY AIR AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING
CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. RECORD
LOWS AT BGM/SYR/AVP ARE 22/22/23 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING
LOWS NEAR THOSE VALUES AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS. NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER TEENS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NY STATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL PROBABLY
SHOW UP OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT... BUT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TONIGHT. THE DRY MODERATING PATTERN CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER ON
SATURDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH MRNG UPDATE. H5 TROF AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WL BE MVG THRU CWA TO START OFF EXTNDD. THIS WL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PCPN TO THE AREA ON SAT. 12Z EC IS QUICKER TO
BUILD IN SFC HIGH VS 00Z GFS AND IT KEEPS PCPN LINGERING INTO SAT
NGT WITH LGT AMNTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF LURKING
THRU MID-WEEK. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
UNDER OCNL BRIEF S/WV RIDGES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR
COOL DOWNS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE TAFS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LINGERING WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT BGM AND ITH. IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH SO DID
NOT INCLUDE. EVERYONE VFR BY 17Z. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KTS THIS
AFTN.


12Z UPDATE...
VFR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS AT KITH AND KBGM. AT KRME AND KSYR NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP. BY 16Z THIS
MORNING EXPECT MOST SITES TO BE SKC AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. ONLY CHANGE GROUPS WILL BE FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH
NW WINDS GUSTY THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TOWARD 00Z EXPECT WINDS TO BCM LGT/VRB AND THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THUR THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN/TAC
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 161747
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FCST SLIGHTLY IN SPOTS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MIXING TO AROUND 3500
FT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BEING REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES.
NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES
FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN
COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTS
NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.

VFR.

NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL END AROUND 21Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE AT 5-12 KT. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE E THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING 10 TO 15 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 310-340 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY 320-350 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 310-340 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/-
AN HOUR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND GUST AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...PSBL MVFR CIGS.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR
.MONDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ON THE SOUND/LI BAYS/NY HARBOR HAS BEEN DROPPED NOW THAT
FREQUENT GUSTS ARE BELOW 25 KT. ON THE OCEAN...JUST OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BUILDING SE SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OVER THE
WESTERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHERE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE NOT BEING MET...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
BUILDING SEAS AND STRENGTHENING WINDS LATER ON IN THE NIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON THURSDAY. FOR THE
OTHER WATERS...OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KBTV 161725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF
CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING
AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 161651
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 161447
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1047 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES END MIDDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM OHIO. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER AND CLOUDS TO REFLECT THIS.
AROUND NOON THIS WILL ALL DIE QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE
ERIE MOVES IN WITH DRIER AIR AND SINKING MOTION. TEMPS ON TRACK
AND FORECASTED MAX TEMPS LOOK GOOD. AS THE HIGH COMES IN THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE.

345 AM WED UPDATE... MULTI-BAND SHSN/FLRYS PERSIST ATTM...WITHIN A
CYCLONIC 310-320 FLOW...AND CONTINUED CAA. THIS LGT SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED BUILD IN FROM THE W LATER THIS MRNG...COURTESY OF AN
APPROACHING SFC RIDGE AXIS...AND ALSO BLDG HGTS ALOFT BEHIND A
DEPARTING S/WV. ANY RESIDUAL FLRYS SHOULD BE GONE BY 14-16Z.
THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

TEMPS...THOUGH...WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID-APRIL...WITH HIGHS
NO BETTER THAN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S. SOME OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO EVEN MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.

AT LEAST THE WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TDY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM W TO E...SPCLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... MOST OF THIS PD WILL FEATURE DRY WX...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE IN CONTROL ACRS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TNT (LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS)...THEN
SUNNY MORE SEASONABLE CONDS ARE FORESEEN THU (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 40S-MID 50S).

AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ALG THE EAST COAST THU
NGT AND EARLY FRI...A DVLPG SE FLOW AT LWR LVLS COULD BRING A
MARINE CLOUD LYR INTO AT LEAST PTNS OF NE PA AND THE WRN
CATSKILLS. OTHWS...PATCHY MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDS SHOULD
PREVAIL...LIKELY THICKENING UP FROM W TO E BY MID-LATE AFTN. LOW-
LVL WAA BY THIS TIME SHOULD HELP PUSH READINGS UP NEAR 60 FRI AFTN
ALG OUR LAKE PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S
ELSEWHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE APPROACH OF A NRN STREAM S/WV AND
ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT LATER FRI NGT. AS A RESULT...WE`LL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A CHC OF SHWRS. THERE MAY BE ENUF WET BULB COOLING
WITH THE INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AMS...FOR A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX IN SOME
AREAS. PCPN AMTS...HOWEVER...LOOK QUITE LGT FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH MRNG UPDATE. H5 TROF AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WL BE MVG THRU CWA TO START OFF EXTNDD. THIS WL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PCPN TO THE AREA ON SAT. 12Z EC IS QUICKER TO
BUILD IN SFC HIGH VS 00Z GFS AND IT KEEPS PCPN LINGERING INTO SAT
NGT WITH LGT AMNTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF LURKING
THRU MID-WEEK. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
UNDER OCNL BRIEF S/WV RIDGES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR
COOL DOWNS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
10 AM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE TAFS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LINGERING WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS AT BGM AND ITH. IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE BRIEF ENOUGH SO DID
NOT INCLUDE. EVERYONE VFR BY 17Z. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KTS THIS
AFTN.


12Z UPDATE...
VFR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS AT KITH AND KBGM. AT KRME AND KSYR NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP. BY 16Z THIS
MORNING EXPECT MOST SITES TO BE SKC AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. ONLY CHANGE GROUPS WILL BE FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH
NW WINDS GUSTY THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TOWARD 00Z EXPECT WINDS TO BCM LGT/VRB AND THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THUR THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN/TAC
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 161444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 3500 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES.
NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES
FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN
COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS/DS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KALY 161424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. PLUS WE HAD 1/2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 161418
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT ON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR








000
FXUS61 KOKX 161350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 3500 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

LATE TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 161322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
922 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC
FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO
OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 161213
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KBUF 161134
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BASED RIDGING DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH FAIRLY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED. THIS STATED...IT WILL STILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR
MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT
ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS
ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL
RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KOKX 161128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR MOVED
IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW
FREEZING. AS OF 12Z...TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...WITH
THE EXPECTATION SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY 10 AM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

LATE TONIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...SEARS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS61 KBGM 161042
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES END THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM WED UPDATE... MULTI-BAND SHSN/FLRYS PERSIST ATTM...WITHIN A
CYCLONIC 310-320 FLOW...AND CONTINUED CAA. THIS LGT SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS MUCH DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED BUILD IN FROM THE W LATER THIS MRNG...COURTESY OF AN
APPROACHING SFC RIDGE AXIS...AND ALSO BLDG HGTS ALOFT BEHIND A
DEPARTING S/WV. ANY RESIDUAL FLRYS SHOULD BE GONE BY 14-16Z.
THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

TEMPS...THOUGH...WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID-APRIL...WITH HIGHS
NO BETTER THAN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S. SOME OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO EVEN MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.

AT LEAST THE WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TDY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM W TO E...SPCLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... MOST OF THIS PD WILL FEATURE DRY WX...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE IN CONTROL ACRS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TNT (LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS)...THEN SUNNY
MORE SEASONABLE CONDS ARE FORESEEN THU (HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR
40S-MID 50S).

AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ALG THE EAST COAST THU
NGT AND EARLY FRI...A DVLPG SE FLOW AT LWR LVLS COULD BRING A MARINE
CLOUD LYR INTO AT LEAST PTNS OF NE PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS.
OTHWS...PATCHY MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDS SHOULD PREVAIL...LIKELY
THICKENING UP FROM W TO E BY MID-LATE AFTN. LOW-LVL WAA BY THIS
TIME SHOULD HELP PUSH READINGS UP NEAR 60 FRI AFTN ALG OUR LAKE
PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE APPROACH OF A NRN STREAM S/WV AND
ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT LATER FRI NGT. AS A RESULT...WE`LL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A CHC OF SHWRS. THERE MAY BE ENUF WET BULB COOLING
WITH THE INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AMS...FOR A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX IN SOME
AREAS. PCPN AMTS...HOWEVER...LOOK QUITE LGT FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH MRNG UPDATE. H5 TROF AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WL BE MVG THRU CWA TO START OFF EXTNDD. THIS WL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PCPN TO THE AREA ON SAT. 12Z EC IS QUICKER TO
BUILD IN SFC HIGH VS 00Z GFS AND IT KEEPS PCPN LINGERING INTO SAT
NGT WITH LGT AMNTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF LURKING
THRU MID-WEEK. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
UNDER OCNL BRIEF S/WV RIDGES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR
COOL DOWNS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
CIGS AT KITH AND KBGM. AT KRME AND KSYR NOT EXPECTING ANY
RESTRICTIONS LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP. BY 16Z THIS
MORNING EXPECT MOST SITES TO BE SKC AS DRY AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. ONLY CHANGE GROUPS WILL BE FOR WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WITH
NW WINDS GUSTY THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TOWARD 00Z EXPECT WINDS TO BCM LGT/VRB AND THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THUR THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...MLJ





000
FXUS61 KALY 161036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160932
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
532 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA AT 09Z...AND UPDATED TO REMOVE FROM GRIDS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KALY 160850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND
GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE LOWERS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME
MORE ANTICYLONIC.

TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS
IN OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF
AREAS...UPPER 20S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LOWER 30S MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN.

INITIALLY MOST ASPHALT SURFACES REMAINED WET. HOWEVER...IN THE CASE
OF HEAVIER SNOW...THEY TOO BECAME SLUSH COVERED. ANY STANDING SLUSH
AND WET SPOTS WILL FREEZE SOLID. WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING
DRIVE (800 AM).

WE WILL LIKELY DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES THROUGH
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES...TEENS
HIGHER TERRAIN.


WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING
AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER
CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGH
WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE
CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON THE
GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS RECORD
BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 160846
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
446 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING OUT OF NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS AT 08Z.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT
WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 320-340 MAG 20G30KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THIS
MORNING. 330-350 MAG 20G30KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NW
15-20G25-30 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. NNW
20G30KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 160824
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE LAST OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MOVING OUT OF NEW LONDON COUNTY AND THE TWIN FORKS AT 08Z.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 900 MB. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OF FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE
EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC
AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST.

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY
08Z...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS...320-350 TRUE...WILL RANGE
FROM 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ON ALL THE WATERS AND
WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE AS WINDS ALOFT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THEN SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KBUF 160812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BASED RIDGING DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH FAIRLY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED. THIS STATED...IT WILL STILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR
MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT
ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ030.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBGM 160807
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
407 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES END THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BECOME OUR DOMINANT FEATURE...AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
345 AM WED UPDATE... MULTI-BAND SHSN/FLRYS PERSIST ATTM...WITHIN A
CYCLONIC 310-320 FLOW...AND CONTINUED CAA. THIS LGT SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS MUCH DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED BUILD IN FROM THE W LATER THIS MRNG...COURTESY OF AN
APPROACHING SFC RIDGE AXIS...AND ALSO BLDG HGTS ALOFT BEHIND A
DEPARTING S/WV. ANY RESIDUAL FLRYS SHOULD BE GONE BY 14-16Z.
THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

TEMPS...THOUGH...WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID-APRIL...WITH HIGHS
NO BETTER THAN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 40S. SOME OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS COULD BE HARD PRESSED TO EVEN MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S.

AT LEAST THE WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TDY...AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FROM W TO E...SPCLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM WED UPDATE... MOST OF THIS PD WILL FEATURE DRY WX...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE IN CONTROL ACRS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TNT (LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS)...THEN SUNNY
MORE SEASONABLE CONDS ARE FORESEEN THU (HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPR
40S-MID 50S).

AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ALG THE EAST COAST THU
NGT AND EARLY FRI...A DVLPG SE FLOW AT LWR LVLS COULD BRING A MARINE
CLOUD LYR INTO AT LEAST PTNS OF NE PA AND THE WRN CATSKILLS.
OTHWS...PATCHY MID AND HIGH-LVL CLDS SHOULD PREVAIL...LIKELY
THICKENING UP FROM W TO E BY MID-LATE AFTN. LOW-LVL WAA BY THIS
TIME SHOULD HELP PUSH READINGS UP NEAR 60 FRI AFTN ALG OUR LAKE
PLAIN AREAS...WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE APPROACH OF A NRN STREAM S/WV AND
ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT LATER FRI NGT. AS A RESULT...WE`LL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A CHC OF SHWRS. THERE MAY BE ENUF WET BULB COOLING
WITH THE INITIALLY DRY LOW-LVL AMS...FOR A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX IN SOME
AREAS. PCPN AMTS...HOWEVER...LOOK QUITE LGT FROM THIS EARLY
VANTAGE PT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH MRNG UPDATE. H5 TROF AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WL BE MVG THRU CWA TO START OFF EXTNDD. THIS WL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PCPN TO THE AREA ON SAT. 12Z EC IS QUICKER TO
BUILD IN SFC HIGH VS 00Z GFS AND IT KEEPS PCPN LINGERING INTO SAT
NGT WITH LGT AMNTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF LURKING
THRU MID-WEEK. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
UNDER OCNL BRIEF S/WV RIDGES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR
COOL DOWNS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT. EXPECT VFR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER
WITH OCNL IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KRME. AT HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS OF KITH AND KBGM EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING. AT KSYR CANNOT RULE OUT AN MVFR CIG BUT LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN
ON HIGH PRESSURE WITH SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AT NY TERMINALS
AND AFTER 12Z AT KAVP. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGH THIN CIRRUS OVERSPREADING KRME AND KSYR
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES WELL NORTH OF CNY.

EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS THROUGH
THE MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARD
AFTERNOON. WINDS BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

LATE WED NGT THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE FAIRLY DRY CONDS
THU AND FRI (MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY 25-35%)...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH. ALSO...WE JUST EXPERIENCED A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR
MANY PLACES ON TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBTV 160748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BULK OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION HAS
EXITED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS
ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL
RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 160728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW WILL END BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN TODAY
WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE SNOW SHIELD HAS MOVED OUT OF THERE AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN AREAS. THERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EVEN GREATER
CAPITAL REGION. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BE ICY FOR THE
MORNING DRIVE. EARLIER...WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN...AND WE MAY ISSUE ANOTHER RIGHT BEFORE THE
MORNING DRIVE COMMENCES.

LOWS BY DAWN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND 15 TO
25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND










000
FXUS61 KBGM 160612
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY COOL WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
THEN DRY AND MILDER COUPLE DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST FROM EARLIER TODAY WAS VERY MUCH ON TARGET WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN SHIELD OF FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO PULL SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER TROF AXIS IS
NOW CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. RAIN HAD CHANGED TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY 8 PM WITH SCATTERED
REPORTS OF 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS COMING IN. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER TODAY WERE SIMILAR IN THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEY AREAS UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN SUSQUEHANNA AND CATSKILL REGIONS.

PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT...THEN SUPPORT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT STILL EXISTS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING DOWN TO -13 OR -14 DEGREES LATER TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY ABOVE 5000 FEET
BUT THIS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN 310 TO 325 DEGREE FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...ALBEIT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY COOL WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY THEN A CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND. DRY MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE MARITIMES
SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO CHGS NEEDED TO LONG TERM WITH MRNG UPDATE. H5 TROF AND ASSOC
SFC LOW WL BE MVG THRU CWA TO START OFF EXTNDD. THIS WL BRING A
QUICK SHOT OF MIXED PCPN TO THE AREA ON SAT. 12Z EC IS QUICKER TO
BUILD IN SFC HIGH VS 00Z GFS AND IT KEEPS PCPN LINGERING INTO SAT
NGT WITH LGT AMNTS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TROF LURKING
THRU MID-WEEK. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
UNDER OCNL BRIEF S/WV RIDGES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WARM UPS OR
COOL DOWNS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT. EXPECT VFR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER
WITH OCNL IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KRME. AT HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS OF KITH AND KBGM EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING. AT KSYR CANNOT RULE OUT AN MVFR CIG BUT LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN
ON HIGH PRESSURE WITH SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AT NY TERMINALS
AND AFTER 12Z AT KAVP. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGH THIN CIRRUS OVERSPREADING KRME AND KSYR
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES WELL NORTH OF CNY.

EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS THROUGH
THE MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARD
AFTERNOON. WINDS BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

LATE WED NGT THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...PVN/TAC
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBUF 160604
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
204 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING MOONLIT SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL
WITH FORECAST MINS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. RECORD
LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 AT KBUF...22 AT KROC...AND 25 AT
KART...ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE
SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION.
THIS CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LAST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHERE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT /OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN THERE THOUGH...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO UNLIMITED VFR BY MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS THEN DOMINATING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME
CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE LOWER
NIAGARA RIVER AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ030.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/RSH
HYDROLOGY...JJR








000
FXUS61 KALY 160554
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL
RISES TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS
WILL RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND








000
FXUS61 KOKX 160553
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. RAIN WAS TRANSITIONS
TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT MIDNIGHT THE SNOW WAS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEAR BDR TO JUST WEST OF ISLIP. AND THE SNOW WAS
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY. FORECAST POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND AND
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY
08Z...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS...320-350 TRUE...WILL RANGE
FROM 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TO 2 FEET BELOW FORECAST
VALUES...SO LOWERED SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KBTV 160541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. QUITE CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY.
THEN CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS
BY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER
40S TO MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR
MOST. UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY
AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK
NOW LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBGM 160539
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY COOL WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
THEN DRY AND MILDER COUPLE DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST FROM EARLIER TODAY WAS VERY MUCH ON TARGET WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN SHIELD OF FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO PULL SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER TROF AXIS IS
NOW CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. RAIN HAD CHANGED TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BY 8 PM WITH SCATTERED
REPORTS OF 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS COMING IN. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER TODAY WERE SIMILAR IN THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION
THAT EXTENDED FROM THE WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEY AREAS UP ACROSS
THE EASTERN SUSQUEHANNA AND CATSKILL REGIONS.

PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXIT EAST TONIGHT...THEN SUPPORT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT STILL EXISTS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING DOWN TO -13 OR -14 DEGREES LATER TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY ABOVE 5000 FEET
BUT THIS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN 310 TO 325 DEGREE FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...ALBEIT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY COOL WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY THEN A CLEAR CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS TO THE EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND. DRY MILD WEATHER WILL HOLD ON
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING FROM THE MARITIMES
SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12 PM TUE UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK HITTING SYSTEMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN BUT POSSIBLY A MIX LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN STAYS WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. FIRST
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF GOES THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY. ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM COMES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN. WITH NO BIG TROF OR RIDGES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH NO BIG SWINGS LIKE TODAY
AND YESTERDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT. EXPECT VFR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER
WITH OCNL IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KRME. AT HIGHER ELEVATION
TERMINALS OF KITH AND KBGM EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN NW FLOW THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING. AT KSYR CANNOT RULE OUT AN MVFR CIG BUT LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN
ON HIGH PRESSURE WITH SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AT NY TERMINALS
AND AFTER 12Z AT KAVP. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGH THIN CIRRUS OVERSPREADING KRME AND KSYR
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES WELL NORTH OF CNY.

EXPECT NW WINDS TO CONTINUE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS THROUGH
THE MORNING, THEN DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARD
AFTERNOON. WINDS BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

LATE WED NGT THROUGH FRI...VFR.

FRI NGT/SAT...MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SELY FLOW OVER NE PA AND SRN NY.

SUN... VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KALY 160534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ISSUED A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF OVER 3 INCHES AND RADARS INDICATED THAT 1-2+
INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE FALLING IN CENTRAL LITCHFIELD COUNTY (DBZ
VALUES OVER 30 WERE COMMON) ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT COULD BE SLEET.
WILL MONITOR AND SEE IF WE HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. IT SEEMS TO MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND SHOULD BE GONE
AFTER 200 AM.

STEADY SNOW PULLING OUT OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL SEEN COMING DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO RECEIVE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW...POSSIBLY A
FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAVE AVERAGED 1-4
INCHES...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM HERE ON IN SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS.

STILL CONCERNED IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD...TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A GUSTY WEST WIND
15 TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE THESE VALUES FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT
TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KBTV 160454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT A DRY THOUGH CHILLY
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S UNDER
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. AFTER A COLD NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1254 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT
EXISTS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. THE SNOW IS MOVING EAST AND WILL BE
COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT UNTIL ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW FALLS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE REGION. THUS MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. QUITE
CHILLY HOWEVER TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) AS BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S...SO KEEP THOSE JACKETS HANDY. THEN
CLEAR/CALM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. LOWS BY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE COLDER NRN MTN HOLLOWS.

BY THURSDAY START OF RAPID MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BEGINS AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATE DAY HIGHS UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THEN 20S TO LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 223 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS PLEASANT ON
FRIDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOOKING AT A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST.
UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SWING OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSFERRING OFFSHORE...SO NOT
LOOKING AT A MAJOR RAIN EVENT BY ANY MEANS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT LEAVING A DEFAULT RIDGE IN
PLACE FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WHAT SHOULD BE A
FAIRLY DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING THROUGH...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOTHING REAL NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY GENERALLY 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OF VERMONT
THIS EVENING. WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH CHANGEOVER
EXPECTED AT RUT/MPV BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
BECOMING VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
SNOWMELT. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND RESIDUAL HIGH TERRAIN
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RUNOFF. CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT
IS RAPIDLY LESSENING OVER TIME HOWEVER DUE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE MELTABLE PACK NOW
LIES ABOVE 2000-2500 FEET. REGARDLESS OF THE LESSENING
CONTRIBUTION FROM SNOWMELT...CURRENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP...OR PUSH
MANY RIVERS AND SMALLER STREAMS INTO MINOR AND IN SOME CASES
MODERATE FLOOD BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON FOR
RIVERS IN YOUR AREA BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR BY
GOING TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...RJS/NF
HYDROLOGY...JMG








000
FXUS61 KOKX 160444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1244 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. RAIN WAS TRANSITIONS
TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT MIDNIGHT THE SNOW WAS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEAR BDR TO JUST WEST OF ISLIP. AND THE SNOW WAS
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY. FORECAST POPS AND PERCIP TYPE ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND AND
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION
KSWF...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF
SLUSH ELSEWHERE.

WINDS NW G20-30KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TO 2 FEET BELOW FORECAST
VALUES...SO LOWERED SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KBUF 160347
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1147 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING MOONLIT SKIES OVER OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO LINGERING STRATO-CU BETWEEN KROC AND KSYR WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO ABOUT DAYBREAK.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH FORECAST MINS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 15 TO 20. THESE SUB FREEZING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME POCKETS OF BLACK ICE. WE HAVE RECEIVED
VERIFICATION ON THIS RISK FROM ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE REGION. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

SPEAKING OF LOW TEMPERATURES...RECORD LOWS FOR THE UPCOMING MORNING
(APRIL 16TH) INCLUDE 20 AT KBUF...22 AT KROC...AND 25 AT KART. ALL
OF THESE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE
SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW YORK HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR
LEVELS...AND AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM ROC EAST TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWER WILL BE FOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FELL MONDAY NIGHT AND EQARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT THE MAIN
CAUSE FOR THE CURRENT FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT. RELATIVELY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KALY 160346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1145 PM EDT...SNOW WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...WITH PRESUMABLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
HILLTOWNS AND ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.

SO ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...2 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS.

OUR BIG CONCERN IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATED THE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
SOME ACCUMULATIONS. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE WERE COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT.

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










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