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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES
FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES
FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 030632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES
FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



WOOD





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
BRINGING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR ITH ELM BGM. CIGS AROUND 3K FT SO
MVFR AND VFR LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z AS THE NW WINDS WEAKEN. REST OF SITES
VFR.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW STARTS. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS 1 TO 3
INCHES BEFORE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN. RUNWAYS
WILL NEED TREATING AS SOON AS IT STARTS. WITH THE SNOW VSBYS
QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND CIGS TO LOW MVFR. WITH THE SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN CIGS WILL STAY LOW BUT VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR.

NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SE TO S AT 4 TO 8 KTS LATE MORNING THEN SOUTH AT 10
KTS IN THE AFTN. THIS EVE S WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT BGM SYR ITH.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE NGT-WED...MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CIGS AND RA/FZRA.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030546
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1246 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID-
DAY HOURS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-30 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES BETWEEN 12-18Z...FOLLOWED BY A MVFR LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 20Z. THIS
SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AFFECTING KPBG/KBTV AND KRUT STARTING AROUND 22Z THEN
INTO CENTRAL VT AND KMPV AROUND 23Z. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS 21Z-05Z AT KSLK/KMSS AND 00Z-04Z AT
KPBG/KBTV/KRUT AND KMPV.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z BETWEEN
2-4KFT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS CREATE STABILITY AND MINIMIZE WIND GUSTS. BUT ANY BREAKS
IN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER 04Z, WILL
LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS AS MIXING OCCURS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...KGM


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 030538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...DRIFTING
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THINK THAT COMBINED SNOW PACK...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...ONLY INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE HIGH
MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 030538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...DRIFTING
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THINK THAT COMBINED SNOW PACK...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...ONLY INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE HIGH
MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 030538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...DRIFTING
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THINK THAT COMBINED SNOW PACK...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...ONLY INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE HIGH
MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 030538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...DRIFTING
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THINK THAT COMBINED SNOW PACK...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...ONLY INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE HIGH
MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KOKX 030538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...DRIFTING
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THINK THAT COMBINED SNOW PACK...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...ONLY INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE HIGH
MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT






000
FXUS61 KOKX 030538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1238 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...DRIFTING
OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO
THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THINK THAT COMBINED SNOW PACK...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THEREFORE...ONLY INCREASED LOW TEMPS BY A DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z WITH THE HIGH
MOVING OVERHEAD. THEN WINDS TURN TO THE SE BY AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR OR
LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT...AFTER 23-00Z. MODERATE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO A
WINTRY MIX AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. WINTRY MIX CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JM/MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 030535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
FROM VFR TO IFR. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 030535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
FROM VFR TO IFR. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 030535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
FROM VFR TO IFR. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 030535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
FROM VFR TO IFR. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 030526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 030526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 030526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 030526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1221 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1217 AM EST TUESDAY...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OUT PER
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IS ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
EASE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NOTED AT 05Z FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD...WITH A FEW SPOTS 5-10MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SUBSIDE AS WELL
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD ACROSS NY INTO VT TOWARD
DAYBREAK. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE GOOD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO LOWS ZERO TO -5F LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 8 ABOVE
ELSEWHERE. POPS NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030403
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
BEING NEEDED AT THAT TIME. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN
AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 030403
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
BEING NEEDED AT THAT TIME. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN
AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBGM 030343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1043 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KALY 030301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CYCLONE AND THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR...AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE TREND TO LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE BY DAYBREAK. THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
COUPLED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY FRESH SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN
LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...EXCEPT SOME UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 030301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CYCLONE AND THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR...AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE TREND TO LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE BY DAYBREAK. THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
COUPLED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY FRESH SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN
LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...EXCEPT SOME UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 030301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CYCLONE AND THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR...AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE TREND TO LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE BY DAYBREAK. THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
COUPLED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY FRESH SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN
LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...EXCEPT SOME UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 030301
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1001 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CYCLONE AND THE ANTICYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR...AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE
ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE TREND TO LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE BY DAYBREAK. THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
COUPLED WITH A CLEAR SKY AND FAIRLY FRESH SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN
LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...EXCEPT SOME UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030256
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
956 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030231
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
931 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...DRIFTING OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND NW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LINGERING GUSTS SHOULD END...
AS NW WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD AND THEN SE BY AFTERNOON.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT








000
FXUS61 KOKX 030231
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
931 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...DRIFTING OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND NW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS LATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE
SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR
THESE SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LINGERING GUSTS SHOULD END...
AS NW WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD AND THEN SE BY AFTERNOON.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN OCEAN WATERS/LI SOUND/NY HARBOR/LI
BAYS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY. 25 KT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER
THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST
ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT









000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBUF 030026
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
726 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...THE
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KALY 030017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
717 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. A FEW GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 10 PM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO TAPER WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS IN THE NW FLOW. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 030017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
717 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. A FEW GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 10 PM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO TAPER WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS IN THE NW FLOW. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 030017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
717 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. A FEW GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 10 PM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO TAPER WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS IN THE NW FLOW. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR SKY
AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 21Z/TUE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
KPSF PRIOR TO 02Z/WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN CLEARING THE
SKIES...AND ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GO LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NW BTWN 20Z/TUE TO 00Z/WED.
EXPECTED CIGS/VSBYS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR WHICH LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS.

THE BLUSTERY W/NW WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB WILL DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY THIS EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 647 PM EST MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW
SHOWER/SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED,
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS
DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS
IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY
(THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE
GUSTY SIDE, AND I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL
FADE AWAY GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
635 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...DRIFTING OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDS THIS EVENING. EVENING FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND
WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CLEAR SKY MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS LATE...AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE SNOWPACK...THINKING
IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. WENT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR THESE SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LINGERING GUSTS SHOULD END...AS
NW WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD AND THEN SE BY AFTERNOON.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TOWARD TUESDAY
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING EXCEPT THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS WHERE 25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE SCA OVER
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS TO MIDNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT










000
FXUS61 KOKX 022335
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
635 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...DRIFTING OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDS THIS EVENING. EVENING FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND
WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CLEAR SKY MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS LATE...AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE SNOWPACK...THINKING
IS THAT AREAS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. WENT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR THESE SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LINGERING GUSTS SHOULD END...AS
NW WINDS DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD AND THEN SE BY AFTERNOON.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

BY LATE DAY...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LATE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY...WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TOWARD TUESDAY
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING EXCEPT THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS WHERE 25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE SCA OVER
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS TO MIDNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT











000
FXUS61 KBGM 022330
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBTV 022329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ANY
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES GONE BY 02Z. OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...SKIES BECOME CLEAR...AND WINDS
GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BTV/PBG/SLK. MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH LOWER DECK ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
SNOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY AND MSS/SLK AFTER 22Z. CONDIITONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION
MIXES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND DISSIPATES.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM
SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KOKX 022124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...DRIFTING OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL BE CENTERED
JUST OFF TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR SKY MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS LATE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. WENT A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS
FOR THESE SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING EXCEPT THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS WHERE 25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE SCA OVER
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS TO MIDNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT






000
FXUS61 KOKX 022124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...DRIFTING OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL BE CENTERED
JUST OFF TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CLEAR SKY MOST
OF THE NIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME CIRRUS LATE...AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO CALM. COMBINED WITH THE SNOWPACK...THINKING IS THAT AREAS
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CITY WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN A
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND. WENT A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE COLDER MAV MOS
FOR THESE SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WAA BEGINS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. WITH THE WAA
ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER...OVERRUNNING PCPN PROBABLY ARRIVES A
LITTLE SOONER THAN PROGGED BY THE MODELS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE AREA BY TUES
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CATEGORICAL POPS TUES NIGHT...THEN POPS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

FOR QPF...NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ALTHOUGH NAM IS SOMEWHAT A WETTER OUTLIER. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO RFC
GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TO BE CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENT...DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR FROM WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE EVENTS...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN SHOWN BY
MAV/NAM MOS...WITH SUNY SB HI-RES WRF CLOSER TO WHAT WILL PROBABLY
HAPPEN. ALOFT...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COLDER TREND BY
MODELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. BUT EVEN SO...THINKING IS THAT
THE MAX TEMP IN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE PLENTY WARM ENOUGH
FOR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO BRIEF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
STARTING AS ALL SNOW...THEN CHANGING PLAIN RAIN. BY THE TIME SOME OF
THE NW SUBURBS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING...POPS SHOULD BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND. ICING CONCERNS WILL THEREFORE BE THE GREATEST
THERE.

EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 3 / 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ONLY SPOT WHERE
ICING IS NOT FORECAST IS EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHICH IS THE ONLY
AREA THAT WILL NOT HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE ADVISORY STARTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ANYWHERE PCPN IS FALLING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT QPF GETS PUSHED INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO HPC
QPF - REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN AROUND 200 KT 250 HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W
SATURDAY...THEN PASSES TO THE N SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH BEST FORCING
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO THE N...HAVE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE A BIT...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS HAS A
MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST. THEY BOTH AGREE ON A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING MONDAY.

GIVEN MIXED SIGNAL...AND GENERAL INDICATION THAT FOR NOW MORE LIKELY
TO BE DRY THEN WET...WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CHANGEABILITY IN MODELS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST CHANGES FROM THE ABOVE.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH THURSDAY-FRIDAY QUITE COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THIS EVENING EXCEPT THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS WHERE 25KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE SCA OVER
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS TO MIDNIGHT. FOR TUESDAY....A TRANQUIL
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS. SCA CONDS THEN RETURN AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS COULD LINGER ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST
OF MORICHES INLET INTO SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER...A LOW CHANCE OF
SCA LEVEL GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN ABOUT 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY
LATE TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW PACK
COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO AND
COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM 1/3 OF AN INCH OVER FAR W ORANGE COUNTY TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER
LONG ISLAND OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
OVER NE NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND...MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>008-011-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-078-080-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-103.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT







000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022024
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A LITTLE OPEN WATER ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS WITHIN A COLD AIRMASS CREATING SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THIS LIGHT SNOW...AIDED BY ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS REACHED A PORTION OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND THEN INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK STATE FALLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS LATE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS HIGH
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE LIGHT SNOWS
FALLING ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. AS WE
HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...A DEEP SNOWPACK WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS...EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT CAN ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL IN THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
THE REGION TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...AND BELOW ZERO
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS CLOUDS RETURN TO WESTERN NEW YORK WITHIN A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS DAWN. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.

A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO
SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH
OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...THE
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022024
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A LITTLE OPEN WATER ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS WITHIN A COLD AIRMASS CREATING SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THIS LIGHT SNOW...AIDED BY ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS REACHED A PORTION OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND THEN INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK STATE FALLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS LATE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS HIGH
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE LIGHT SNOWS
FALLING ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. AS WE
HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...A DEEP SNOWPACK WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS...EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT CAN ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL IN THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
THE REGION TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...AND BELOW ZERO
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS CLOUDS RETURN TO WESTERN NEW YORK WITHIN A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS DAWN. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.

A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO
SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH
OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...THE
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 022012
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021846
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KOKX 021809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
109 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENDED SCT FLURRIES OVER CT AND THE FORKS REGION FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...THEN AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT EXITS...NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT OVER THERE. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS EVE...THEN  HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN.

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE
WEEK.

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD
EAST...WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TUE
MORNING.

VFR. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFT
AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS AND
THEN SE BY AFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW LATE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR,

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL BE AT SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES QUICKLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 021809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
109 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENDED SCT FLURRIES OVER CT AND THE FORKS REGION FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...THEN AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT EXITS...NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT OVER THERE. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS EVE...THEN  HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN.

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE
WEEK.

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD
EAST...WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TUE
MORNING.

VFR. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFT
AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS AND
THEN SE BY AFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW LATE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR,

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL BE AT SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES QUICKLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 021809
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
109 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENDED SCT FLURRIES OVER CT AND THE FORKS REGION FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...THEN AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT EXITS...NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT OVER THERE. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS EVE...THEN  HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN.

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE
WEEK.

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD
EAST...WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TUE
MORNING.

VFR. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFT
AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUE MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS AND
THEN SE BY AFT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE IN TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL VARY RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW LATE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
.WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.SATURDAY...VFR,

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL BE AT SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES QUICKLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV






000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021756
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS TIL 20Z.
OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING FLOW AND HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY SKC. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS TAFS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THEN SE ON TUESDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.


&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 021701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1201 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENDED SCT FLURRIES OVER CT AND THE FORKS REGION FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...THEN AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT EXITS...NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT OVER THERE. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS EVE...THEN  HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN.

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE
WEEK.

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR EARLY TODAY BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX LATE EVE...AND THEN RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY CT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LLWS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN - WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ZR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AT KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE VFR. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...SHOULD
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL BE AT SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES QUICKLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 021701
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1201 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER...THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXTENDED SCT FLURRIES OVER CT AND THE FORKS REGION FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...THEN AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT EXITS...NVA AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT OVER THERE. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
BE PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. NW WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS EVE...THEN  HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN.

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE
WEEK.

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR EARLY TODAY BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX LATE EVE...AND THEN RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY CT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LLWS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN - WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ZR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AT KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE VFR. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...SHOULD
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL BE AT SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES QUICKLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV






000
FXUS61 KBGM 021637
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1137 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...HEDEN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 021549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KBGM 021549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1049 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM EST UPDATE...
LE SNOW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DEPTH OF THE LOW LVL
MOISTURE BECOME LESS WITH TIME AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER
THE REGION ALOFT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

DECIDED TO END LE SHOWERS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE AS NEW GUIDANCE HINTS THE WIND PROFILES AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL INHIBIT LE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

AN UPDATE ON THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE PROVIDED
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN








000
FXUS61 KOKX 021500
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT. THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER
THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER
THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE THE
COLD AIRMASS...THE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING. HAVE
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMP FCST BY A FEW DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

ADDED SCT FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF CT AS PER LATEST RADAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
INTO EARLY AFTN SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS EVE...THEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN.

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE
WEEK.

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR EARLY TODAY BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX LATE EVE...AND THEN RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY CT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LLWS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN - WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ZR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AT KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE VFR. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...SHOULD
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL BE AT SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES QUICKLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 021500
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT. THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER
THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER
THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE THE
COLD AIRMASS...THE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING. HAVE
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMP FCST BY A FEW DEGREES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREAS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

ADDED SCT FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF CT AS PER LATEST RADAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
INTO EARLY AFTN SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS EVE...THEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS BEGIN TO FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN.

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE
WEEK.

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW...
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER.

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT.

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR EARLY TODAY BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX LATE EVE...AND THEN RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY CT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LLWS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN - WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ZR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AT KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE VFR. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...SHOULD
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL BE AT SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE N
ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES QUICKLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY DROP
BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF U