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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT
TIMES ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES FOR 1030
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER
NORTH OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS
ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY
OUR WARMEST DAY THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN
MILD START THIS MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND WHO
DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS LOOKS
LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD ADD UP
ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND TOWARD
MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS BUT GENERALLY
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND MIST THROUGH 15-18Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY
18Z. LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT
TIMES ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES FOR 1030
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER
NORTH OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS
ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY
OUR WARMEST DAY THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN
MILD START THIS MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND WHO
DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS LOOKS
LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD ADD UP
ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND TOWARD
MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS BUT GENERALLY
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND MIST THROUGH 15-18Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY
18Z. LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT
TIMES ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES FOR 1030
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER
NORTH OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS
ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY
OUR WARMEST DAY THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN
MILD START THIS MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND WHO
DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS LOOKS
LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD ADD UP
ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND TOWARD
MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS BUT GENERALLY
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND MIST THROUGH 15-18Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY
18Z. LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S...EXCEPT THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT
TIMES ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT TUESDAY...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES FOR 1030
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND
TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING...MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER
NORTH OF THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS
ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
OFFSET BY PERIODS OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY
OUR WARMEST DAY THRU AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN
MILD START THIS MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND WHO
DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS LOOKS
LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD ADD UP
ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND TOWARD
MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS BUT GENERALLY
MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND MIST THROUGH 15-18Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
ARE SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY
18Z. LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211433
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1033 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL FRONT WILL PASS OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES WAS NEAR KBOS AT 14Z. THE CDFNT WAS STILL NOT THRU THE
ENTIRE CWA...WITH LGT SW FLOW STILL LINGERING FROM CNTRL LI INTO
CT. AS A RESULT ADDED SOME FOG IN THE GRIDS TIL NOON.

ON RADAR...ONE FINAL BAND OF PCPN NE OF THE CITY. IT APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING...BUT PERHAPS IT WILL INTENSIFY A LITTLE AS IT HITS THE
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE. REGARDLESS...ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED AS THE BKN LINE IS MOVING AROUND 65 MPH.

GENERALLY W WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND WRN NJ. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD EWD THIS AFTN.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SW EVIDENT ON STLT.

TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
KEPT LIKELY POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT
BY THE AFTERNOON AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN BY 16Z. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS
AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MWS ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TIL NOON ON THE ERN WATERS. THE
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS WLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE EARLY AFTN.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS THRU EARLY AFTN GENERALLY BLW A TENTH OF AN INCH.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC/MPS
MARINE...JMC/GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GC/MET


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 211333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
933 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE WAS
TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR...WITH SOME IFR AT
KALB. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THEN WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE
OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 211333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
933 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION
LEAVING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE WAS
TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR...WITH SOME IFR AT
KALB. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THEN WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE
OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 211140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST WITH SUNRISE. THE
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS WERE VERY SLOWLY
FALLING...AND THE CLOUD DECK IS NO VERY THICK. NOT ISSUE

LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE CHANCE POPS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ON TRACK THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW WAS OVER CONNECTICUT AND MOVING EAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF...AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN
13-14Z. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING...AND WEST
TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND INCREASES THIS
MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND INCREASES THIS
MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND INCREASES THIS
MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE MAY STILL BE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 211140
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST WITH SUNRISE. THE
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS WERE VERY SLOWLY
FALLING...AND THE CLOUD DECK IS NO VERY THICK. NOT ISSUE

LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE CHANCE POPS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ON TRACK THIS
MORNING AS THE LOW WAS OVER CONNECTICUT AND MOVING EAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF...AND CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN
13-14Z. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING...AND WEST
TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND INCREASES THIS
MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND INCREASES THIS
MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND INCREASES THIS
MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE MAY STILL BE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 211136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR...WITH SOME IFR AT
KALB. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THEN WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE
OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 211136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR...WITH SOME IFR AT
KALB. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THEN WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE
OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 211136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR...WITH SOME IFR AT
KALB. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THEN WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE
OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 211136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS THIS MORNING...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR...WITH SOME IFR AT
KALB. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THEN WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10
KT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE
OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 621 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH
MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS BUT GENERALLY MVFR/IFR
IN SHOWERS AND MIST THROUGH 15-18Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY
18Z. LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 621 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH
MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS BUT GENERALLY MVFR/IFR
IN SHOWERS AND MIST THROUGH 15-18Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST AND EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY
18Z. LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 211057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 211057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 211057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 211057
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WITH THIS UPDATE...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND COORDINATION WITH WFO BGM.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PA THIS MORNING
AND ALL REMAINING TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP ARE CURRENTLY VFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS MIXING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AT THE SFC. THUS... EXPECT
AS SOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KAVP... FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
STARTING LATE MORNING AND LAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY... BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM AS
SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN POINT.
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY WILL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 211051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PA THIS MORNING
AND ALL REMAINING TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP ARE CURRENTLY VFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS MIXING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AT THE SFC. THUS... EXPECT
AS SOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KAVP... FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
STARTING LATE MORNING AND LAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY... BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM AS
SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN POINT.
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY WILL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 211051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PA THIS MORNING
AND ALL REMAINING TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP ARE CURRENTLY VFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS MIXING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AT THE SFC. THUS... EXPECT
AS SOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KAVP... FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
STARTING LATE MORNING AND LAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY... BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM AS
SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN POINT.
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY WILL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 211051
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PA THIS MORNING
AND ALL REMAINING TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAVP ARE CURRENTLY VFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN VFR BEHIND THE FROPA AS MIXING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AT THE SFC. THUS... EXPECT
AS SOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KAVP... FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
STARTING LATE MORNING AND LAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY... BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DECIDED TO KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM AS
SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND HARD TO PIN POINT.
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY WILL BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET... WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 211046
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE MAY STILL BE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 211046
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE MAY STILL BE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 211036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030Z...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...AND IS NOW
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY FALLING APART BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COOL
POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A SPOKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS...WITH THESE FOCUSING ON AREAS AWAY
FROM LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
OUR AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND
WATERTOWN SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT WINDS
EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT LAYER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/
RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...FEEL
THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF THESE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...
BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATE TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030Z...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW...AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SMALL SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
FALLING APART BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LARGELY VFR... SAVE FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND WITHIN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. LATER ON TONIGHT...MORE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND ACROSS OUR
REGION.

WHILE A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BE MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030Z...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...AND IS NOW
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY FALLING APART BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COOL
POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A SPOKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS...WITH THESE FOCUSING ON AREAS AWAY
FROM LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
OUR AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND
WATERTOWN SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT WINDS
EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT LAYER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/
RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...FEEL
THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF THESE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...
BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATE TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030Z...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW...AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SMALL SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
FALLING APART BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LARGELY VFR... SAVE FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND WITHIN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. LATER ON TONIGHT...MORE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND ACROSS OUR
REGION.

WHILE A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BE MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030Z...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...AND IS NOW
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY FALLING APART BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COOL
POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A SPOKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS...WITH THESE FOCUSING ON AREAS AWAY
FROM LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
OUR AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND
WATERTOWN SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT WINDS
EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT LAYER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/
RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...FEEL
THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF THESE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...
BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATE TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030Z...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW...AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SMALL SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
FALLING APART BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LARGELY VFR... SAVE FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND WITHIN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. LATER ON TONIGHT...MORE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND ACROSS OUR
REGION.

WHILE A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BE MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030Z...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW...AND IS NOW
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SMALL
SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY FALLING APART BY
MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THESE FEATURES...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COOL
POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED WITH A SPOKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS...WITH THESE FOCUSING ON AREAS AWAY
FROM LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
OUR AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
INSTABILITY LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND
WATERTOWN SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT WINDS
EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT LAYER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/
RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...FEEL
THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF THESE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE
COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z-00Z TODAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...
BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATE TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1030Z...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMED OVER LAKE ERIE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
FLOW...AND IS NOW PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SMALL SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
FALLING APART BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW SITUATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AS A RESULT THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
LARGELY VFR... SAVE FOR SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND WITHIN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. LATER ON TONIGHT...MORE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND ACROSS OUR
REGION.

WHILE A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.

FINALLY...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE...DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
MORE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY BE MIX WITH AND/OR CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211028
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 621 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH
MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211028
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 621 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PASSED. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO MOVE ISOLD TSTMS, ALONG WITH
MINOR CHANGES FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL RAINBAND
WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBGM 211017
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH



000
FXUS61 KBGM 211017
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6AM UPDATE...
CHANGES TO SLOW DOWN THE EXIT OF THE RAIN AND UP THE RAIN AMOUNTS
6 TO 15Z.

4 AM UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KALY 210916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
516 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 210916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
516 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO LINGER. SOME CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 510 AM EDT...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NYS. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ. ALOFT...A POTENT VORT LOBE
WAS TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MORPHED
INTO A MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

WE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. THEN...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT CLEARING TO DEVELOP...ESP IN VALLEY
REGIONS...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING AID TO SCOUR OUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
VALLEY AREAS BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MAY
BE TOUGHER TO DISLODGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND GREATER LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TOWARD
SUNSET...AS STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING...AND INCREASING DYNAMICAL
LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OCCUR.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
35 MPH...PARTICULARLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ONCE DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS.

MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY
REGIONS LATER TODAY...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 40S ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL...WITH H500 TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND OR EVEN SLIGHTLY UNDER -30C...WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PROMOTE
RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
TRACKS EAST...SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. IN FACT...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SHOULD ANY PROLONGED CLEARING
OCCUR...EVEN COLDER MINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION WED AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
HOURS...AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HOW COLD THE MID
LEVELS WILL BE...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING FROM DYNAMICS AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EVEN IN VALLEYS...ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD HAVE SOME WET SNOWFLAKES AND/OR GRAUPEL
MIXED IN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 50S IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR...INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEYS...AND
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WED NT...SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
SOME MINOR ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT SHOULD BE RATHER
CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN
VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU-THU NT...SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...DESPITE OVERALL
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS/FREQUENT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IN VALLEYS...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHTER...SO IT SHOULD BE RATHER WINDY THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
GUSTS REACHING 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...WITH MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THU NT SHOULD BE QUITE
COLD...WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO
MID 30S IN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW...WITH SMALL UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE
CYCLONIC FLOW...PERIODICALLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  MOST OF THE ENHANCED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN LEE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INTERVALS OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  SPECIFIC TIMING OF
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOT POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT WITH THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE...SO BROADBRUSHING AT THIS POINT AND WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
EAST OF OUR REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BUT SOME
INDICATIONS OF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION IN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING LARGE CIRCULATION.  SO...ANY WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE VERY SLOW AND GRADUAL...AS LONG AS NO OTHER
UPPER LOWS REPLACE THIS ONE OVER OUR REGION BEYOND 7 DAYS. WE CAN
ONLY WAIT AND SEE.

HIGHS IN THE 50S MANY AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AROUND 40 TO MID
40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0 CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...AND RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30-45
PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT
LEAST 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH SOME AMTS OF NEAR OR OVER
AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

COOL...BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM ONE QUARTER...TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH SINCE MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME ADDED SNOWMELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WILL LEAD
TO WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FROM SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
456 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU
SUNRISE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
456 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU
SUNRISE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
456 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU
SUNRISE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
456 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU
SUNRISE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210856
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
456 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THRU
SUNRISE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET



000
FXUS61 KBUF 210836
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COOL POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AS A RESULT. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR
AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE INSTABILITY
LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN
SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT
WINDS EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT AGL LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THIS REGION...FEEL THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF
THESE DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z TODAY
TO 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO
COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME. WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PRIMARILY BE VFR THROUGH THEN...SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...
DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR
NEARSHORE ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
         THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210836
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COOL POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AS A RESULT. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR
AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE INSTABILITY
LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN
SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT
WINDS EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT AGL LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THIS REGION...FEEL THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF
THESE DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z TODAY
TO 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO
COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME. WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PRIMARILY BE VFR THROUGH THEN...SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...
DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR
NEARSHORE ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
         THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210836
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COOL POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AS A RESULT. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR
AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE INSTABILITY
LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN
SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT
WINDS EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT AGL LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THIS REGION...FEEL THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF
THESE DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z TODAY
TO 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO
COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME. WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PRIMARILY BE VFR THROUGH THEN...SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...
DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR
NEARSHORE ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
         THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210836
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. UNDER THIS PATTERN...SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT COOL POOL ALOFT CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AS A RESULT. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A SPOKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ACROSS OUR REGION WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
LAKE INFLUENCES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR
AREA...THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE WILL BE FOUND FROM INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE INSTABILITY
LEVELS MAY ALSO GET JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...AREAS FROM BUFFALO NORTHEASTWARD TO ROCHESTER AND WATERTOWN
SHOULD REMAIN SHADOWED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
NOTICEABLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND ADJOINING PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT DATA NOW DEPICT 40-45 KNOT
WINDS EXTENDING AS LOW AS THE 1-2 KFT AGL LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/RESULTANT DECENT MIXING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THIS REGION...FEEL THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRETTY EASILY SOME OF
THESE DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF SOME 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM NIAGARA AND
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA FROM 15Z TODAY
TO 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF ALL LIKELY TO
COME IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME... BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING.

LIKEWISE...ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS TODAY SHOULD ALSO TEND TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF MORE GENERAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR
WHICH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY AREAWIDE. WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF MAINLY JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SOME OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE TEMPS COOL JUST
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER TONIGHT...
ALBEIT WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOLLOWING THIS...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL ADVERTISED HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL GUARANTEE
THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY CHILLY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE FAMILIAR FROM RECENT
WINTERS FROM ITS PATTERN FORCING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...IS UNIQUELY DIFFERENT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
POLEWARD OF 40N LATITUDE...WHILE A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A SEPARATE
CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
IT WILL ULTIMATELY BE THIS SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL PREVENT US FROM
GETTING ANY PACIFIC MODIFICATION IN THE LONG TERM...AS THE GIST OF
ANY WARMING WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION FOUND BELOW.

THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (IE. JUST NORTH OF THE
SOO). A 100KT H3 JETLET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CLOSED LOW WILL HELP TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES DURING THE MORNING...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN
ITS WAKE FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE TUNE
OF 8 TO 9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES. THE FORCING FROM THE MORNING FROPA
AND SUBSEQUENT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IT WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL. H85 TEMPS AVERAGING
-4C WILL KEEP A LID ON OUR THERMOMETERS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
LARGELY BE IN THE 40S. FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND OFF LK ERIE WILL EXACERBATE THE CHILL AND MAKE IT
FEEL ESPECIALLY RAW AS APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY.

THE CIRCULAR UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OBLONG AND STRETCH FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT..AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BEGIN THE
PROCESS OF FORMING A SECOND CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BROADER MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS WHOLE PROCESS WILL KEEP A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ONE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THERE IS NO WAY TO
TIME SUCH A PASSAGE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS
REGIONWIDE. ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS WILL THEN BE ACTED UPON BY THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WILL SEND H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -8C.
THESE LOWERING CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL DEEPEN A BURGEONING DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH NEAR SFC TEMPS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME WET SNOW
SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW FEATURING TWIN VORTICES WILL BE
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WHILE A 990MB LOW WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE
VCNTY OF MAINE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH H85 TEMPS OF -8C STILL SUPPORTING AT LEAST AT
LEAST A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FOR SOME AREAS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FINGER LAKES...THE P TYPE
COULD SIMPLY BE JUST SNOW...ALTHOUGH QPF OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMS TO CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. TEMPS ON
THURS WILL BE EVEN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RAW DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S (HIGHER TERRAIN) TO MID
40S. A FRESH WESTERLY WIND WILL PRODUCE APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SRN TIER...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...THROUGHOUT THE WHILE DAY.
ISN`T LATE APRIL WEATHER FUN IN WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK?

IT WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 30S (UP 20S SRN TIER AND TUG HILL). THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A LULL IN THE PASSAGES OF MID LEVEL
IMPULSES...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALL BE THE RESULT OF THE THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH...WHICH BY THE WAY IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
MAIN VORTICITY OVER THE LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WHILE COLD WEATHER
OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN TO VEGETATION AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR...FRUIT AND FLOWERING TREES HAVE YET TO BLOSSOM...AND WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER...THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS.

ON FRIDAY...THE STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE
LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE SOME RIDGING WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENCOURAGE
SOME DRY AIR TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS LAKE ERIE. MEANWHILE...THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A `FAVORABLE` AREA TO BE INFLUENCED BY ANY
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY OVER OUR REGION...SO GIVEN THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS IN PLACE.
ONE CAN THUS INFER WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PCPN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AROUND -8C...SO MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY (UP 30S HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVY SPLIT FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHILE THE OLD CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHILLY WEATHER
LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE PACIFIC MODIFICATION ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE BULK OF ANY REAL WARMING WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY TO
MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WHILE STAYING BELOW NORMAL LATE APRIL VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...WHILE THERE WILL BE A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE MUCH MORE SETTLED THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES FOR MONDAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FAIR DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAGGY COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK...WITH THIS BAGGINESS DUE TO A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR KBGM. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...AND AS A RESULT
THEIR LINGERING ATTENDANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THAT TIME. WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PRIMARILY BE VFR THROUGH THEN...SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES TODAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AGAIN
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...
DURING WHICH TIME SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM KBUF/KIAG OVER TO KROC. ANY SUCH WINDS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. AS OUTLINED BELOW...THIS HAS
NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF OUR
NEARSHORE ZONES...AS WELL AS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NYZ001>003-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
         THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210836
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
412 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COOL(MINUS 2-3 STD DEV HGTS AND TEMPS)
CLOSED UPPER TROF WHICH DEVELOPS OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL KEEP US COOL AND MOIST.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW GOING INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF STARTS MOVING
IT FURTHER EAST SUCH THAT BY MONDAY A DRIER A BIT WARMER SOLUTION
IS GIVEN.

ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING
LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY
NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND
WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH
SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD
ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS. LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER LOWER 30S OR THERE ABOUTS WITH A TREND
TOWARD MILDER WEATHER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 12Z THEN CONTINUED SHOWERS AND MIST
THROUGH 15-18Z THEN BACK TO VFR AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT GRADUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY, THEN SW
GUSTING 20-30KT AT KMSS/KSLK BY 18Z LIGHTER ELSEWHERE, PERHAPS 15
TO 20 KTS AT KBTV LATE.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN AT TIMES ACROSS VALLEY
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCULDED FRONT PUSHING EWD THRU THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED FRONTAL
RAINBAND WITHIN PLUME OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.2". MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) ROOTED AROUND 900MB IS RESULTING IN
ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND S-CENTRAL
VT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSTM MENTION THRU 09Z FOR THE
SRN ZONES...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS (80-100%) BEFORE
FRONT CLEARS ERN VT AROUND 15Z. INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CLEAR EAST
OF VT BY 09-10Z ENDING ANY LIGHTNING THREAT AT THAT TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.15-0.30" POSSIBLE WITH FRONTAL RAINBAND...WITH
BRIEFLY MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND OVERALL NOT
LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT FROM THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

ONCE SURFACE OCCLUSION PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING...MODERATELY
STRONG WSWLY FLOW AND MID-LVL DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...SOUTH AND EAST OF CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTER NORTH OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HRS FOR MOST SECTIONS...AND EVEN A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HRS. SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY LIGHT S-SW THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS 850MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 40KTS TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NRN NY MID-LATE
AFTN...AND 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT. LOW-MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE OFFSET BY PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. TODAY LIKELY OUR WARMEST DAY THRU
AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR 60F IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
VT (FCST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MOS GIVEN MILD START THIS
MORNING)...AND GENERALLY MID-UPR 50S ACROSS NRN NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AS OUR
CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM. AFTER
BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WITH TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES EMBEDDED
WITHIN MODERATELY FAST CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. GFS AND MESOSCALE MODELS RELATIVELY CONSISTENTLY
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 18Z WED THRU 03Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST POPS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 30S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY...AND CLOSER TO 50F ON THURSDAY. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STARTING 06Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (AND INTO
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH ANY ISOLD TO SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREEN MTNS 06Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBUF 210600
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT FINISHES CROSSING THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS
WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE VFR...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES...
EXCEPT FOR LAKE ERIE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210600
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT FINISHES CROSSING THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS
WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE VFR...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES...
EXCEPT FOR LAKE ERIE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210600
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT FINISHES CROSSING THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK.

WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS
WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE
LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES
OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A FAIRLY BAGGY
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK/NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NEW YORK/THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
LINGER BACK AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY AS OF THIS
WRITING...MOST LIKELY THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE
WAVE.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT SURFACE WAVE/FRONT...THOUGH SOME OF
THESE WILL STILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY
BE VFR...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ONTARIO
PROVINCE...WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FEEDING ACROSS OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS COOL AIRMASS...EXPECT
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE STABILIZING
INFLUENCES OF THE LAKES ON TUESDAY...BEFORE GENERALLY DIMINISHING
AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE TUESDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES...
EXCEPT FOR LAKE ERIE WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH



000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210559
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KALY 210544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 210544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 09Z-10Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT EAST AFTER 09Z-10Z...BUT AREAS OF LIGHTER
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...WITH THE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS...
CEILINGS WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR...BUT SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE MVFR. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING AND CARRYING VCSH THROUGH ABOUT 15Z-17Z IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THROUGH 19Z AT KPSF. CEILING SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 3000
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND STAY VFR THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS COULD BRIEFLY GUST NEAR 25 KT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BEFORE
DAYBREAK AT ALL TAF SITES.  THEN WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRES OVER EAST CENTRAL NJ WILL MV EAST TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST 3 HR PRES FALLS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE LCL AREA.

TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE APPROACHING LOW EAST
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THEY PRODUCED BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CNTRL
PA...NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED IR CLOUDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AND SEA UNTIL 6 AM
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MVS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NO WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS IN FOG/DRIZZLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. CONDS
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY. GUST UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN FOG.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHC FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL
AMTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/GC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE/GC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRES OVER EAST CENTRAL NJ WILL MV EAST TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST 3 HR PRES FALLS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE LCL AREA.

TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE APPROACHING LOW EAST
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THEY PRODUCED BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CNTRL
PA...NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED IR CLOUDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AND SEA UNTIL 6 AM
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MVS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NO WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS IN FOG/DRIZZLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. CONDS
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY. GUST UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN FOG.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHC FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL
AMTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/GC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE/GC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE/GC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRES OVER EAST CENTRAL NJ WILL MV EAST TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST 3 HR PRES FALLS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE LCL AREA.

TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE APPROACHING LOW EAST
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THEY PRODUCED BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CNTRL
PA...NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED IR CLOUDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AND SEA UNTIL 6 AM
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MVS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NO WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS IN FOG/DRIZZLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. CONDS
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY. GUST UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN FOG.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHC FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL
AMTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/GC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE/GC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRES OVER EAST CENTRAL NJ WILL MV EAST TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST 3 HR PRES FALLS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE LCL AREA.

TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE APPROACHING LOW EAST
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THEY PRODUCED BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CNTRL
PA...NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED IR CLOUDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AND SEA UNTIL 6 AM
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MVS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NO WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS IN FOG/DRIZZLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. CONDS
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY. GUST UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN FOG.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHC FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL
AMTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/GC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE/GC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRES OVER EAST CENTRAL NJ WILL MV EAST TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST 3 HR PRES FALLS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE LCL AREA.

TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE APPROACHING LOW EAST
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THEY PRODUCED BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CNTRL
PA...NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED IR CLOUDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AND SEA UNTIL 6 AM
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MVS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NO WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS IN FOG/DRIZZLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. CONDS
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY. GUST UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN FOG.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHC FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL
AMTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/GC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE/GC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE/GC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRES OVER EAST CENTRAL NJ WILL MV EAST TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND NEAR THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST 3 HR PRES FALLS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE LCL AREA.

TSTMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE APPROACHING LOW EAST
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THEY PRODUCED BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED NE ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS CNTRL
PA...NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED IR CLOUDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND AND SEA UNTIL 6 AM
ONCE THE BOUNDARY MVS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NO WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS.

OTHERWISE...LIFR/VLIFR CONDS IN FOG/DRIZZLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. CONDS
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDDAY. GUST UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM IN FOG.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS
INVOF NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHC FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RAINFALL
AMTS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/GC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE/GC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE/GC




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS NOW ENTERED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING
FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THIS
LINE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND ARE
TRANSLATING NORTH/NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TALLER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...AS WE HAD ONE SPOTTER FROM HIGHLAND
NY IN ULSTER CO REPORT PEA SIZE HAIL WITH ONE CELL.

THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE
WEST...AND ALSO AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN
ITS LEFT EXIT REGION.

A POTENT VORT LOBE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL ROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACH TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH PERHAPS A FEW PERIODS
OF STEADY...MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES.

TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS RISE A BIT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE FALLING SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY 40S EXPECTED FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND FROM NEAR MSS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
900MB LIFTED PARCELS REALIZING 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT. EXPANDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER EWD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.2". BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...A QUICK 0.25" RAINFALL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TIMING OF RAINBAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE WINDS SE WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE TROUGH/OCCULSION PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND FROM NEAR MSS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
900MB LIFTED PARCELS REALIZING 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT. EXPANDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER EWD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.2". BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...A QUICK 0.25" RAINFALL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TIMING OF RAINBAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE WINDS SE WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE TROUGH/OCCULSION PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1234 AM EDT TUESDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND FROM NEAR MSS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND NERN PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
900MB LIFTED PARCELS REALIZING 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO S-CENTRAL VT. EXPANDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER EWD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BAND IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1-1.2". BASED ON
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS...A QUICK 0.25" RAINFALL
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
RUTLAND COUNTY VT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TIMING OF RAINBAND. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT
READINGS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR 40S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE WINDS SE WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SURFACE TROUGH/OCCULSION PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 210310
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1110 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
COULD MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
11 PM UPDATE...
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF SEVERE TSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 92. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED IN THIS EVENING WHICH
STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE HAD MANY REPORTS OF SMALL
HAIL...IN SOME CASES A LOT OF IT...AND YET NO LARGE HAIL. WIND
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SCANT. PENN YAN REACHED 34 KTS. THE RELATIVELY
COOL AIR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE LIKELY PREVENTED
HIGHER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210309
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM CENTRAL NJ TO JUST SOUTH OF
NYC TO ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS OF 03Z...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR
YORK PA AND WESTMINSTER MD. WATCHING LINES OF TSTMS TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST...ONE OVER ERN PA AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER SE PA AND
NRN DELMARVA. WITH MUCAPE 500-750 J/KG TO THE WEST...THE FIRST MAY
SURVIVE INTO ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC COUNTIES AND PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL BEFORE WAKENING ON APPROACH TOWARD NYC.
THE CLUSTER OVER SE PA MAY SURVIVE LONGER VIA BETTER
LIFT/CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF LLJ AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW...AND IMPACT LONG ISLAND AND SE CT OVERNIGHT.

EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVY TO ALL OF NYC AND NE BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUE TO LOWER VSBYS OVERNIGHT. THE DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD RISE LATE
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL 09Z-13Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SHOWERS W/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 05Z TO 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST.
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT WORKS IN THE AREA.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW ON TUE. GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG ADVYS NOW IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS FOR VSBY BELOW 1 NM
IN MARINE FOG. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE AFTERNOON.

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY THE WATERS INVOF
NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RAINFALL AMTS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN ORANGE/W PASSAIC AND ALSO
ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE CT. OTHERWISE...AREAL QPF IS
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KBUF 210254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS
OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD
ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS
OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD
ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS
OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD
ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. ON
TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS
OVERHEAD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...WOULD
ALSO NOT RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM
THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ACROSS THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1053 PM EDT MONDAY...GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN UP ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR...SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN
A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL STILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AIR
REAINS QUITE STABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 210200
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR BENNINGTON AND
WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED HOWEVER THEY
DO REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY IN
SOME LOCATIONS.SOME LOCATIONS.

AS OF 945 PM...HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS SINCE THE LAST UPDATE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
DROPPED SLOWLY WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
947 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS.

AS OF 945 PM...HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY
GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE
POPS THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS SINCE THE LAST UPDATE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
DROPPED SLOWLY WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 210044
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
844 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO JUST SOUTH OF NYC TO
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS OF 00Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE MOVES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER...AND
HAVE EXPANDED TO ALL AREA ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
INCLUDING S WESTCHESTER...THE BX AND NORTHERN QUEENS WITH LGA DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE. ADVY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE
WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD RISE LATE
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL 10Z-14Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SHOWERS W/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 03Z TO 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW ON TUE. GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS OUT EAST ARE DIMINISHING. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
THOUGH ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

VSBY IN MARINE FOG IS BELOW 1 NM ON MOST WATERS EXCEPT PERHAPS NY
HARBOR...SO ADVY CONTINUES AND MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
HARBOR DEPENDING ON TRENDS

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY THE WATERS INVOF
NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-
     177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210044
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
844 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO JUST SOUTH OF NYC TO
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS OF 00Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE MOVES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER...AND
HAVE EXPANDED TO ALL AREA ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
INCLUDING S WESTCHESTER...THE BX AND NORTHERN QUEENS WITH LGA DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE. ADVY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE
WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD RISE LATE
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL 10Z-14Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SHOWERS W/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 03Z TO 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW ON TUE. GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS OUT EAST ARE DIMINISHING. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
THOUGH ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

VSBY IN MARINE FOG IS BELOW 1 NM ON MOST WATERS EXCEPT PERHAPS NY
HARBOR...SO ADVY CONTINUES AND MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
HARBOR DEPENDING ON TRENDS

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY THE WATERS INVOF
NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-
     177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210044
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
844 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO JUST SOUTH OF NYC TO
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS OF 00Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE MOVES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER...AND
HAVE EXPANDED TO ALL AREA ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
INCLUDING S WESTCHESTER...THE BX AND NORTHERN QUEENS WITH LGA DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE. ADVY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE
WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD RISE LATE
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL 10Z-14Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SHOWERS W/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 03Z TO 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW ON TUE. GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS OUT EAST ARE DIMINISHING. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
THOUGH ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

VSBY IN MARINE FOG IS BELOW 1 NM ON MOST WATERS EXCEPT PERHAPS NY
HARBOR...SO ADVY CONTINUES AND MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
HARBOR DEPENDING ON TRENDS

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY THE WATERS INVOF
NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-
     177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210044
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
844 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO JUST SOUTH OF NYC TO
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS OF 00Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE MOVES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER...AND
HAVE EXPANDED TO ALL AREA ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
INCLUDING S WESTCHESTER...THE BX AND NORTHERN QUEENS WITH LGA DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE. ADVY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE
WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD RISE LATE
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL 10Z-14Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SHOWERS W/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 03Z TO 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW ON TUE. GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS OUT EAST ARE DIMINISHING. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
THOUGH ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

VSBY IN MARINE FOG IS BELOW 1 NM ON MOST WATERS EXCEPT PERHAPS NY
HARBOR...SO ADVY CONTINUES AND MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
HARBOR DEPENDING ON TRENDS

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY THE WATERS INVOF
NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-
     177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KOKX 210044
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
844 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL NJ TO JUST SOUTH OF NYC TO
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AS OF 00Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE MOVES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER...AND
HAVE EXPANDED TO ALL AREA ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND
INCLUDING S WESTCHESTER...THE BX AND NORTHERN QUEENS WITH LGA DOWN
TO 1/4 MILE. ADVY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE
WITH THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD RISE LATE
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER MN/WI WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME THIS WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY PUSH INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL 10Z-14Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SHOWERS W/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE 03Z TO 09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST.

VFR WITH A GUSTY W FLOW ON TUE. GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
1-3 HOURS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. LOW CIGS/VSBYS WOULD BE
PROLONGED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS OUT EAST ARE DIMINISHING. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
THOUGH ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

VSBY IN MARINE FOG IS BELOW 1 NM ON MOST WATERS EXCEPT PERHAPS NY
HARBOR...SO ADVY CONTINUES AND MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
HARBOR DEPENDING ON TRENDS

W FLOW FOR TUE MAINLY BELOW SCA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
AFTERNOON NEAR-SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY THE WATERS INVOF
NYC AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU
INVOF A CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-078>081-
     177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE



000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.

HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE POPS
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.

HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE POPS
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 210036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
836 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT. WITH A LARGE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE
REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND FOR
BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES. HOWEVER RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
DROP THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY.

HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. HAVE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO INCREASE POPS
THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO HAVE KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E
RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO EAST AND CONVECTION TO
OUR WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE
A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO HAVE USED IT AS A GUIDE TO
INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES AS WE APPROACH
MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD THE OCCLUDING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR IT GETS PINCHED OFF JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES BELOW ZERO MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SO
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR DEVELOPING.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS AREA. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THE FLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES
THOUGH WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND WILL BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBGM 210027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 210027
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
827 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
815 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE TSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL OF THE
AREA...FROM CAYUGA-CORTLAND-BROOME-WAYNE-PIKE COUNTIES WESTWARD.
UP TO NOW INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LACKING DUE TO STABLE ESE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR IS MANAGING
TO SNEAK IN JUST AHEAD WITH DEWPOINTS NOW BUMPING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S. GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE OF ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NARROW AXIS OF CONVECTION IS NOW ENHANCING. MAIN
THREAT IS SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS BY ALLOWING FOR A
FEW ROTATING MESOCYCLONES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SIGNS
OF ROTATION CONSIDERING THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VIGOROUS WAVE WILL GO THROUGH THE TERMINALS 00Z-05Z THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS FOR ALL AND LIKELY THUNDER KELM-KAVP AND PROBABLE FOR
KITH-KBGM...SEE ASSOCIATED TEMPO GROUPS. STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY KAVP-KELM-KBGM. THE
CONVECTIVE WAVE WILL PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT BY A COUPLE
HOURS OR SO...THUS BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE...SCT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT /SEVERAL CASES FUEL
ALT...AND FOR KBGM IFR CIG/. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR...THOUGH STILL SOME SCT
-SHRA ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...FOR KSYR-KRME LOCALIZED ESE SURFACE WIND WILL BE IN
FAIR OPPOSITION TO SSW 35 KT JET AT 2 KFT AGL...THUS LLWS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SSE-S TO VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN FOR ALL
TERMINALS VEERING WSE-W 8-10 KTS...WITH GUSTS 16-20 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/RRM
NEAR TERM...MDP/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBUF 210023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
823 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH
ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
823 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH
ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
823 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH
ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 210023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
823 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...HIGHEST ALONG THE PA
BOARDER...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS ALONG THIS
LINE WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVER TIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL
MAKE REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND
TO WEST/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +8C NOW WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER BEYOND THE MID 50S TOMORROW
WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.

WITH THE  UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...AND THUS FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE IN THE COOL SECTOR...EXPECT
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL HELP THE LIFT...AND AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KART AS THE LINE
PASSES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO KJHW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH
ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP HAVE UPPER THE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS
...AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION AS WELL. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING THE AREA IS MAINLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...SO EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

WILL LEAVE UP THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME...BUT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN A DIMINISHING
TREND IN WIND GUSTS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL LIKELY DROP THE
WIND ADVISORY BEFORE THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AND LIKELY BEFORE
THE MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT. AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT
NORTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND
IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 202318
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...RATHER ACTIVE FIRST-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MIX OF VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY FROM LOW CEILINGS. THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY
ABATE, A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWEST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED BY AREA DOPPLER WIND PROFILER DATA.
EXPECT GUSTS TO ABATE OVER NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS FRONTAL OCCLUSION
NEARS, THOUGH SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED WINDS STILL SHOULD BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS. COULD SEE POCKETS LLWS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF. ANTICIPATE A LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION BETWEEN 02-04Z, WITH VISIBILITES
3-5 SM (TEMPO 2 SM AT MSS). A LOW CHANCE OF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
THOUGH THE BEST SHOT AT THIS WOULD BE AT MSS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END BETWEEN 09-12Z, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR.

MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR TUESDAY. COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS A THREAT FOR INSTABILITY-TYPE SHOWERS, THOUGH
UNCLEAR ON SPECIFIC TIMING SO I`VE SHOWN VCSH FOR THESE. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 KTS, STRONGEST AT MSS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS AGAIN STRONGEST AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 202030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND
WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. IN THESE AREAS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
50 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A WARM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM
PENNSYLVANIA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET PINCHED OFF JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FA TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN ...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -2C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E RIDGE WHICH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BTWN H10 AND H8 OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 202030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND BENNINGTON AND
WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. IN THESE AREAS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
50 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A WARM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM
PENNSYLVANIA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET PINCHED OFF JUST SOUTH
OF OUR FA TONIGHT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN ...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES
DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -2C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT LEAST THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG THETA-E RIDGE WHICH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BTWN H10 AND H8 OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE CAN EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEY AREAS AND
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS ALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SENDING
PIECES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT LOBES ACROSS OUR FA DURING
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 690 NORTHWEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US
WHILE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THUS THERE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND ALTHOUGH THE PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME INTERVALS OF RAIN AND
EVEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A LARGE SCALE UPPER
LOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE ROTATING ABOUT IT. THERE IS CONSENSUS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA KEEPING
OUR THE REGION IN WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...BUT AT NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

OVERALL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

NORMALS FOR LATE APRIL...

ALBANY NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.

GLENS FALLS NY: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS AROUND 40.

BENNINGTON VT: HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

PITTSFIELD MA: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES INTO
THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 202014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ON WED...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AIR MASS IS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY THE TRAJECTORY OVER THE COOL WATER. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. IN
IT`S WAKE IS VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS RETURN LATE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER. THE
TIMING OF THIS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS JFK IS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE. EXTENDED IT INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NRN MN WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR THROUGH 00Z IN FOG
UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS...THEN TURNING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER 00Z.
FOG HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO JFK WITH VSBYS AT A QUARTER OF A MILE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. ANY
THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT VSBYS FALL TO A QUARTER MILE.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOG IS DENSE ON THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY ALREADY AND WILL
REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUND THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE HARBOR IN THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

LIGHT WEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU INVOF A
CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ075-078>081-177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 202014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ON WED...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AIR MASS IS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY THE TRAJECTORY OVER THE COOL WATER. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. IN
IT`S WAKE IS VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS RETURN LATE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER. THE
TIMING OF THIS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS JFK IS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE. EXTENDED IT INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NRN MN WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR THROUGH 00Z IN FOG
UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS...THEN TURNING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER 00Z.
FOG HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO JFK WITH VSBYS AT A QUARTER OF A MILE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. ANY
THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT VSBYS FALL TO A QUARTER MILE.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOG IS DENSE ON THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY ALREADY AND WILL
REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUND THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE HARBOR IN THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

LIGHT WEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU INVOF A
CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ075-078>081-177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 202014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ON WED...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AIR MASS IS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY THE TRAJECTORY OVER THE COOL WATER. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. IN
IT`S WAKE IS VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS RETURN LATE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER. THE
TIMING OF THIS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS JFK IS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE. EXTENDED IT INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NRN MN WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR THROUGH 00Z IN FOG
UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS...THEN TURNING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER 00Z.
FOG HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO JFK WITH VSBYS AT A QUARTER OF A MILE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. ANY
THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT VSBYS FALL TO A QUARTER MILE.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOG IS DENSE ON THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY ALREADY AND WILL
REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUND THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE HARBOR IN THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

LIGHT WEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU INVOF A
CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ075-078>081-177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 202014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR ON WED...ALLOWING FOR A COOL AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT IS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AIR MASS IS HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY THE TRAJECTORY OVER THE COOL WATER. THE BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH. IN
IT`S WAKE IS VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS RETURN LATE THIS
EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT AND
TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING.

INSTABILITY IS ALL ELEVATED THIS EVENING...THUS NO SVR WX HERE.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOG. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER. THE
TIMING OF THIS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT AS JFK IS ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE. EXTENDED IT INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE DENSE FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THERE. OTHERWISE...TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS ARE A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NRN MN WILL SLOWLY TRACK EWD THRU
THE WEEK...THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL OVER QUEBEC AND NRN ME OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACHING H3 JET ON WED APPEARS IT SHOULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH UPR DIVERGENCE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS. IN
ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CDFNT TRACKS THRU. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SCT SHWRS IN THE FCST.
AS THIS SYS SLIDES OFFSHORE WED NGT...THE PCPN ENDS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AND MRGNL MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL BE N
OF THE CWA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL THEREFORE FCST FAIR WX
THU-MON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AS TEMPS HIT
CONVECTIVE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPR 40S TO 50S PER GFS
BUFR DATA. THERE COULD EVEN BE PERIODS OF OVC SKIES AS THE CU
FLATTENS DUE TO DECENT SHEAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
SPRINKLES...BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY BLW CLIMO THRU THE
EXTENDED. HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN FCST ON WED
DEPENDING ON THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER AND SPEED OF THE DEVELOPING
SHWRS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR THROUGH 00Z IN FOG
UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS...THEN TURNING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER 00Z.
FOG HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO JFK WITH VSBYS AT A QUARTER OF A MILE.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. ANY
THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT VSBYS FALL TO A QUARTER MILE.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THOUGH ON THE
OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOG IS DENSE ON THE OCEAN AND GREAT SOUTH BAY ALREADY AND WILL
REMAIN SO UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUND THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE HARBOR IN THE ADVISORY
FOR NOW.

LIGHT WEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S SYSTEM.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS WED THRU THE WEEKEND. THE
BEST CHCS FOR REACHING CRITERIA WILL BE ON THE OCEAN WED-THU INVOF A
CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY...AVERAGING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON WED AS A CDFNT TRACKS
THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ075-078>081-177>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/TONGUE




000
FXUS61 KBUF 202002
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCKED INTO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 45 KNOTS...EVEN TO 50 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR THESE ACCELERATED WINDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL FILL IN
AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND A STEEPER SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...THEN COOLER TO COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE ONLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING AND
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...GENERALLY 20Z TO 00Z IN THE WEST AND 00Z TO 03Z FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES TO COVER THE INITIAL ROUND OF BRISK SOUTHERLIES/
SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY. WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 202002
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCKED INTO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 45 KNOTS...EVEN TO 50 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR THESE ACCELERATED WINDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL FILL IN
AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND A STEEPER SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...THEN COOLER TO COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE RECENT SPELL OF MILD WEATHER WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT CONCLUSION
THIS WEEK AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT OVER QUEBEC AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM...RECREATING AN ALL-TOO-FAMILIAR PATTERN
FROM THE WINTER THAT PLACED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CENTER WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EXTENT BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN LIMITED
DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHTS...THOUGH ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL STILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST TO OUR
NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -3C TUE NIGHT...LARGELY
YIELDING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR FREEZING. ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.

850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -6C WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES COLDER ACCORDINGLY...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAINS. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS...ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS HERE SHOULD FALL WHOLLY AS SNOW. AT
THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THESE AREAS AS MAIN FORCING WILL BE DERIVED FROM A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK INTO RAIN SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES LIMP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOOK MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE COLD AIRMASS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND PRECIP TYPE IN ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE
TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY....CLOSER TO
THE LOW CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE ONLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING AND
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...GENERALLY 20Z TO 00Z IN THE WEST AND 00Z TO 03Z FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES TO COVER THE INITIAL ROUND OF BRISK SOUTHERLIES/
SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY. WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 201946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NYS ATTM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201946
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NYS ATTM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
PRIMARILY THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
HELICITY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 201944
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD
MIX WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN NYS ATTM AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE AND SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY
THIS EVENING. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SFC
BASED CAPE IS A LIMITING FACTORS. EVEN LATER TONIGHT STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. SFC OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE NIGHT
PERIOD BUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NRN NYS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
LOWERING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY
POPS ON WED ACROSS NYS AS A SFC TROF DROPS THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS A COATING MAY OCCUR. BY WED
NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH ON AND
OFF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.
AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN BEHIND IT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND HAVE CARRIED MENTION FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MORE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY 06- 12Z. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
FAR FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND WINDS STAYING UP MUCH
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BECOMING SCATTERED BY
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE
MANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. DOES APPEAR
SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...THEREFORE HIGHER POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND DROPPING OFF A BIT AT NIGHT. MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 201926
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION, KEEPING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW. JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY
HAS 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
DUE LACK OF HEATING...GENERALLY KEEPING POPS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT.

LACK OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WITH ANY APRIL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 50S OR WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME,
BUT WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW, MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 201918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF



000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KBGM 201821
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS MIDDAY, A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL TUESDAY TO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...MID LEVEL WARM FRONT AND INITIAL SHORT WAVE HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACTIVITY ON RADAR DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON PERIOD
WITH BE PRECIP FREE WITH JUST A CHC/SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN
DUE TO SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING SFC
OCCLUSION. SFC WARM FRONT MAY REACH THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA BY LATE DAY WHICH WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE IS REALIZED BY LATE DAY, THE
WIND FIELDS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.

4 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE DAY AND NIGHT WITH FIRST A WARM FRONT GOING THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WATCHING STRONG WINDS THIS
MORNING THEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY RAIN. ALL 3 COULD
BE AN ISSUE.

FIRST WITH THE CURRENT RAIN. CURRENT AMOUNTS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
SO FAR. WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA
MOVING NE, SE SECTION OF CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH THIS MORNING.
PWATS WILL RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR
APRIL. STRONG LOW LEVEL SE WINDS IS PUSHING THIS MOISTURE UP INTO
THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. A SOUTHERLY LL JET OF 60 TO 80
KTS IS BEING SHOWN ON OUR RADAR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE RAINED OUT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT
PASSES LATE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION
LOCATIONS COULD GET SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KTS AT 2K FT AGL.

NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY CENT NY.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HELP
HEAT UP THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LLJ DROPS TO 40 BUT AN UL JET
COMES IN FROM SW. ALSO UL HEIGHTS WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING MIDDAY
OVER WRN NY AND CENT/WRN PA. THIS MOVES EAST INTO STEUBEN COUNTY
BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z THEN TO SYR BGM AVP AROUND 00Z. THIS ALL AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT WHICH COULD HAVE MORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK CAPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE DUE MOSTLY TO WIND BUT LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
MARGINAL. ONEIDA EXCLUDED AND LUZERNE IS NOW IN SLIGHT CHANCE. 2
PERCENT TORNADO LINE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND INTO MOSTLY LUZERNE
COUNTY. HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
IN THE NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY WHERE A SOAKING INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FROPA SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SHOULD STAY CLOUDY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO FOR THE SHORT TERM. STACKED
LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FOR THE PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME
SNOW STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NO ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL
LATE WED NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WITH WEAK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LOW QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

SHOWERS DIURNALLY FORCED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THEN DECREASE AT NIGHT.
ALSO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES CONDUCIVE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH ONE
WAVE MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THE NEXT LATE WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SO ANY FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
0330 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH
THIS UPDATE AS MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO
INDICATE COOL, GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE LONG RANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TO NOVA SCOTIA. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS
IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER
MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BREAKS ESPECIALLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO
THE SYR AREA. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME
THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHEAST PA AT THE AVP TAF SITE. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS... THEN
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO VFR

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PCF/RRM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF




000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 201805
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PASSES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...OTHERWISE GENERALLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...THE SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
AHEAD OF THE WARM OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME RETOOLING OF THE POPS...AND HOURLY TEMPS
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TRENDS. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE PCPN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...SRN VT CORRIDOR.
SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO THE STRONG E/SE LLJ MAY LIMIT THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EXPANSION INTO THE UPPER HUDSON REGION...AND WEST OF THE
SRN GREENS. THE HIGHER TOTALS OF A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE STEADIER RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTH/EAST FACING HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PASS THROUGH. SOME
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH HAVE BEEN NOTED AT KDDH AND KAQW.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESP FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE RAIN INITIALLY REACHES THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD THEN STABILIZE ONCE WET BULB COOLING
OCCURS INTO THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE THREAT OF STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TO ABOUT 50F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER HUDSON REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND PARTS OF SRN VT WHERE
SOME OF THE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...A WEAK TRIPLE POINT
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE JUNCTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES DIPPING INTO THE -1C TO -3C RANGE OVERSPREADS AT
LEAST THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTS...AND SOME QG FORCING AHEAD OF AN VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAY ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SO...SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-SEVERE ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE GENERAL THUNDER
REGION. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT COULD
HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY
STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 40S CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS. THEN...IT APPEARS
THAT OUR REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD OCCUR. SOME LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK
REGION. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S IN
VALLEY AREAS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED. WEAK RIDGING
JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUE NT...BEFORE CLOUDS REDEVELOP...AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING WED. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY
BECOME QUITE CHILLY TUE NT/WED AM IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CAN DEVELOP...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S. ON
WED...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...MAX TEMPS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...BEFORE
FALLING ONCE SHOWERS OCCUR. FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ONLY 40S ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SOME WET SNOW AND/OR GRAUPEL COULD OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS
AS LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER
TROUGHING CONTROLS THE WEATHER. THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF SMALL PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH OR NEAR OUR REGION. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...OR ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE DEEP FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
SHOULD BE WEST...WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST COVERAGE ALSO IS
TYPICALLY IN LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
TO NORTHERN TACONICS DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE...BUT AGAIN JUST
SCATTERED.

DAYTIME PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE JUST RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
NIGHTTIME COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT SOME UPPER ENERGY POSSIBLY
INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...WILL JUST WATCH
CAREFULLY.

NOT GETTING TO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OF INTERVALS OF SHOWERS/SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES IN THE FINE DETAILS IN SOURCES OF
GUIDANCE...BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WITH THE
DOMINANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INTERVALS OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND AGAIN...TRYING TO BROADBRUSH TIMING OF ANY CLOUDINESS VERSUS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAYBE BARELY
40 IN SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S AT NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REDUCTIONS TO
IFR LEVELS AT KPOU IN TERMS OF VSBYS. THERE TREND WILL BE FOR THE
CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS FOR KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL
WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BTWN 21Z-00Z WILL BE AT KPOU/KPSF.

A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN WILL LIKELY OCCUR BTWN 21Z-01Z WITH JUST
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT AROUND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AHEAD AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER BTWN 01Z-04Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH...AND IT TRANSITIONS TO PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE LOW STRATUS/RAIN AND DRIZZLE
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE FORECASTED PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-14Z/TUE.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS BTWN 14Z-
16Z/TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

LLWS GROUPS WERE KEPT IN UNTIL 21Z/MON AT KGFL/KPOU. THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE 2FT AGL
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 30-35 KTS A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE E/SE WINDS CONTINUE AT 8-15 KFT AT KALB/KPSF...WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NE TO
SE AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 21Z...AND THE BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM
THE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.75-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHERE THE RAINFALL IS
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
THIS IS ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS...ONLY THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT
HINCKLEY DAM IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED ITS FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ054-061.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 201803
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVIEST RAINS NOW MOVING UP INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING
RAINFALL TO TAPER TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES...BUT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THUS 70S ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NJ. LAVE LOWERED THE TEMP FCST
SOME MORE WITH NEAR 60 FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS. LOWER 50S FOR S. CT AND MID 50S ON
LONG ISLAND WHERE RAIN TAKES LONGER TO TAPER OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH. ASSOCIATED UPWARD FORCING
AND MOISTURE BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PLUS MAYBE SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A JET
STREAK...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR (NEAR 60)
MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S FOR LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT AS FLOW VEERS TO MORE SSE.

NARRE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
THE DELMARVA. IT MOVES IT OVER LONG ISLAND BY 00Z. WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.

FOR TUESDAY...ONLY LOW CHANCES OF A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY IN THE
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
GREATLY REDUCED BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS THROUGH...SO NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR MIXING TO AT LEAST 850 MB. WITH AFTN TEMPS
4-5C AT THIS LEVEL...SIDED WITH THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. IT SHOULD NOT RAIN
ALL THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. CONDS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHORTWAVES MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MODELS DIVERGE AS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GFS
TAKES LOW PRES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
70/40 BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MUCH
WEAKER AND SLOWER...AND HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
WPC IS FOLLOWING THIS TRACK...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND GO WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN FOG UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT EASTERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS AFTER 20Z...THEN TURNING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER
00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAF. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL LOWER TO SCA THIS AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 7 TO
12 FEET.

WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED SCA ON THE OCEAN THRU TUES AFTN.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 25 KT WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM 1 TO
1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAMS...PRIMARILY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ072-075-078>081-176>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-
     338-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 201803
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVIEST RAINS NOW MOVING UP INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING
RAINFALL TO TAPER TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES...BUT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THUS 70S ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NJ. LAVE LOWERED THE TEMP FCST
SOME MORE WITH NEAR 60 FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS. LOWER 50S FOR S. CT AND MID 50S ON
LONG ISLAND WHERE RAIN TAKES LONGER TO TAPER OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH. ASSOCIATED UPWARD FORCING
AND MOISTURE BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PLUS MAYBE SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A JET
STREAK...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR (NEAR 60)
MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S FOR LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT AS FLOW VEERS TO MORE SSE.

NARRE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
THE DELMARVA. IT MOVES IT OVER LONG ISLAND BY 00Z. WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.

FOR TUESDAY...ONLY LOW CHANCES OF A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY IN THE
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
GREATLY REDUCED BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS THROUGH...SO NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR MIXING TO AT LEAST 850 MB. WITH AFTN TEMPS
4-5C AT THIS LEVEL...SIDED WITH THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. IT SHOULD NOT RAIN
ALL THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. CONDS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHORTWAVES MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MODELS DIVERGE AS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GFS
TAKES LOW PRES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
70/40 BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MUCH
WEAKER AND SLOWER...AND HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
WPC IS FOLLOWING THIS TRACK...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND GO WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN FOG UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT EASTERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS AFTER 20Z...THEN TURNING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER
00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAF. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL LOWER TO SCA THIS AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 7 TO
12 FEET.

WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED SCA ON THE OCEAN THRU TUES AFTN.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 25 KT WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM 1 TO
1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAMS...PRIMARILY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ072-075-078>081-176>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-
     338-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 201803
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVIEST RAINS NOW MOVING UP INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING
RAINFALL TO TAPER TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES...BUT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THUS 70S ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NJ. LAVE LOWERED THE TEMP FCST
SOME MORE WITH NEAR 60 FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS. LOWER 50S FOR S. CT AND MID 50S ON
LONG ISLAND WHERE RAIN TAKES LONGER TO TAPER OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH. ASSOCIATED UPWARD FORCING
AND MOISTURE BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PLUS MAYBE SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A JET
STREAK...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR (NEAR 60)
MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S FOR LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT AS FLOW VEERS TO MORE SSE.

NARRE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
THE DELMARVA. IT MOVES IT OVER LONG ISLAND BY 00Z. WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.

FOR TUESDAY...ONLY LOW CHANCES OF A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY IN THE
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
GREATLY REDUCED BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS THROUGH...SO NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR MIXING TO AT LEAST 850 MB. WITH AFTN TEMPS
4-5C AT THIS LEVEL...SIDED WITH THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. IT SHOULD NOT RAIN
ALL THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. CONDS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHORTWAVES MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MODELS DIVERGE AS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GFS
TAKES LOW PRES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
70/40 BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MUCH
WEAKER AND SLOWER...AND HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
WPC IS FOLLOWING THIS TRACK...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND GO WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN FOG UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT EASTERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS AFTER 20Z...THEN TURNING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER
00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAF. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL LOWER TO SCA THIS AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 7 TO
12 FEET.

WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED SCA ON THE OCEAN THRU TUES AFTN.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 25 KT WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM 1 TO
1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAMS...PRIMARILY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ072-075-078>081-176>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-
     338-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 201803
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND/OR TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEAVIEST RAINS NOW MOVING UP INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING
RAINFALL TO TAPER TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES...BUT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THUS 70S ARE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NJ. LAVE LOWERED THE TEMP FCST
SOME MORE WITH NEAR 60 FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS. LOWER 50S FOR S. CT AND MID 50S ON
LONG ISLAND WHERE RAIN TAKES LONGER TO TAPER OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE POINT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH. ASSOCIATED UPWARD FORCING
AND MOISTURE BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PLUS MAYBE SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A JET
STREAK...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR (NEAR 60)
MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S FOR LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL CT AS FLOW VEERS TO MORE SSE.

NARRE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
THE DELMARVA. IT MOVES IT OVER LONG ISLAND BY 00Z. WILL ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.

FOR TUESDAY...ONLY LOW CHANCES OF A LINGERING SHOWER EARLY IN THE
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH STRONGER LIFT GENERALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
GREATLY REDUCED BY THE TIME IT SHIFTS THROUGH...SO NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. TURNING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. A
WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR MIXING TO AT LEAST 850 MB. WITH AFTN TEMPS
4-5C AT THIS LEVEL...SIDED WITH THE WARMER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF STRONG
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. IT SHOULD NOT RAIN
ALL THE TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS DURING THIS
TIME.

SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. CONDS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT...BUT A FEW LINGERING SHORTWAVES MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MODELS DIVERGE AS TO
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GFS
TAKES LOW PRES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
70/40 BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. PCPN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MUCH
WEAKER AND SLOWER...AND HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
WPC IS FOLLOWING THIS TRACK...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND GO WITH A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

SW FLOW WILL USHER A MILD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL THEN BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA TODAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

CIGS ARE GENERALLY IFR...AND SHOULD FALL TO LIFR BETWEEN 21-00Z
IN FOG UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z TONIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY. GENERALLY LOOKING AT EASTERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS AFTER 20Z...THEN TURNING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS 12Z. EVENTUALLY WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS AROUND 1/2 MILE AFTER
00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAF. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AFTER 21Z. AMENDMENTS
LIKELY FOR CHANGING WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND TIMING OF LOWERING
CIGS/VSBY IN FOG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. W-SW WINDS GUSTS 15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. SW-WSW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL LOWER TO SCA THIS AFTN AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 7 TO
12 FEET.

WINDS SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED SCA ON THE OCEAN THRU TUES AFTN.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. 25 KT WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN WATERS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM 1 TO
1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAMS...PRIMARILY THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ005-006-009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ072-075-078>081-176>179.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     350-353.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-
     338-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 201757
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCKED INTO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 45 KNOTS...EVEN TO 50 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR THESE ACCELERATED WINDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL FILL IN
AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND A STEEPER SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...THEN COOLER TO COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL BE ANCHORED
BY A PATTERN INDUCING OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER OUR REGION...BUT WHILE THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL ACTUALLY BE PCPN FREE. NOTE
THAT THE TERM `PCPN` IS USED RATHER THAN RAIN. MORE ON THIS IN A
MOMENT. IN ANY CASE...THE SHOWERS THAT WE DO RECEIVE WILL LARGELY BE
GENERATED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...WITH A LITTLE ASSISTANCE
GIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE DETAILS...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WE OPEN
THIS PERIOD ON TUESDAY...WHILE A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE FOUND
DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WILL FLATTEN OUT AND PUSH EAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS WE LOSE THE SFC BASED RIDGING...A 100KT H3
JET WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN NEW YORK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
JET ENTRANCE REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD GENERATE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION.
AGAIN...THIS SHOULD COME AFTER GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT A CHILLY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE WILL NEGATE ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE IAG
FRONTIER AND THUS GREATLY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THOSE FROM MONDAY.

AN ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE BULK OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EAST AND BECOME
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO...WHILE THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT A PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR REGION. THE ADDITION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
COME AT A TIME WHEN DEEPENING CHILLY AIR OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9
DEG/C KM UP THROUGH H7 ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MORE FREQUENT/WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. GIVEN H85 TEMPS
OF -2 TO -4C...IT WILL BE RATHER RAW ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50 EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. IN FACT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WET
SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN TIER. THIS WILL ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 1500 FEET.

AS THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES SOUTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ARND -8C.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE THE QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH...ACCUMULATIONS (OTHER THAN ON CARS, ETC) ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

THE DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY MAKE THIS THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6 TO -8C.
AGAIN...WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PCPN TO DEAL WITH...WHAT WE DO
RECEIVE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS DURING THE
DAYS LEADING INTO THIS PERIOD...A CLOSED LOW SPIRALING TO THE EAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE PROXIMITY OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD THOUGH WILL BE PCPN FREE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE ONLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING AND
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...GENERALLY 20Z TO 00Z IN THE WEST AND 00Z TO 03Z FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES TO COVER THE INITIAL ROUND OF BRISK SOUTHERLIES/
SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY. WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...JJR/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201757
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCKED INTO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 45 KNOTS...EVEN TO 50 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR THESE ACCELERATED WINDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL FILL IN
AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND A STEEPER SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...THEN COOLER TO COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL BE ANCHORED
BY A PATTERN INDUCING OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER OUR REGION...BUT WHILE THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL ACTUALLY BE PCPN FREE. NOTE
THAT THE TERM `PCPN` IS USED RATHER THAN RAIN. MORE ON THIS IN A
MOMENT. IN ANY CASE...THE SHOWERS THAT WE DO RECEIVE WILL LARGELY BE
GENERATED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...WITH A LITTLE ASSISTANCE
GIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE DETAILS...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WE OPEN
THIS PERIOD ON TUESDAY...WHILE A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE FOUND
DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WILL FLATTEN OUT AND PUSH EAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS WE LOSE THE SFC BASED RIDGING...A 100KT H3
JET WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN NEW YORK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
JET ENTRANCE REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD GENERATE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION.
AGAIN...THIS SHOULD COME AFTER GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT A CHILLY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE WILL NEGATE ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE IAG
FRONTIER AND THUS GREATLY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THOSE FROM MONDAY.

AN ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE BULK OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EAST AND BECOME
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO...WHILE THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT A PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR REGION. THE ADDITION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
COME AT A TIME WHEN DEEPENING CHILLY AIR OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9
DEG/C KM UP THROUGH H7 ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MORE FREQUENT/WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. GIVEN H85 TEMPS
OF -2 TO -4C...IT WILL BE RATHER RAW ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50 EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. IN FACT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WET
SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN TIER. THIS WILL ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 1500 FEET.

AS THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES SOUTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ARND -8C.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE THE QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH...ACCUMULATIONS (OTHER THAN ON CARS, ETC) ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

THE DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY MAKE THIS THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6 TO -8C.
AGAIN...WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PCPN TO DEAL WITH...WHAT WE DO
RECEIVE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS DURING THE
DAYS LEADING INTO THIS PERIOD...A CLOSED LOW SPIRALING TO THE EAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE PROXIMITY OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD THOUGH WILL BE PCPN FREE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE ONLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING AND
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...GENERALLY 20Z TO 00Z IN THE WEST AND 00Z TO 03Z FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES TO COVER THE INITIAL ROUND OF BRISK SOUTHERLIES/
SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY. WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...JJR/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201757
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCKED INTO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 45 KNOTS...EVEN TO 50 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR THESE ACCELERATED WINDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL FILL IN
AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND A STEEPER SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...THEN COOLER TO COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL BE ANCHORED
BY A PATTERN INDUCING OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER OUR REGION...BUT WHILE THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL ACTUALLY BE PCPN FREE. NOTE
THAT THE TERM `PCPN` IS USED RATHER THAN RAIN. MORE ON THIS IN A
MOMENT. IN ANY CASE...THE SHOWERS THAT WE DO RECEIVE WILL LARGELY BE
GENERATED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...WITH A LITTLE ASSISTANCE
GIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE DETAILS...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WE OPEN
THIS PERIOD ON TUESDAY...WHILE A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE FOUND
DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WILL FLATTEN OUT AND PUSH EAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS WE LOSE THE SFC BASED RIDGING...A 100KT H3
JET WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN NEW YORK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
JET ENTRANCE REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD GENERATE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION.
AGAIN...THIS SHOULD COME AFTER GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT A CHILLY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE WILL NEGATE ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE IAG
FRONTIER AND THUS GREATLY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THOSE FROM MONDAY.

AN ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE BULK OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EAST AND BECOME
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO...WHILE THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT A PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR REGION. THE ADDITION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
COME AT A TIME WHEN DEEPENING CHILLY AIR OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9
DEG/C KM UP THROUGH H7 ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MORE FREQUENT/WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. GIVEN H85 TEMPS
OF -2 TO -4C...IT WILL BE RATHER RAW ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50 EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. IN FACT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WET
SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN TIER. THIS WILL ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 1500 FEET.

AS THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES SOUTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ARND -8C.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE THE QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH...ACCUMULATIONS (OTHER THAN ON CARS, ETC) ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

THE DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY MAKE THIS THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6 TO -8C.
AGAIN...WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PCPN TO DEAL WITH...WHAT WE DO
RECEIVE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS DURING THE
DAYS LEADING INTO THIS PERIOD...A CLOSED LOW SPIRALING TO THE EAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE PROXIMITY OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD THOUGH WILL BE PCPN FREE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE ONLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING AND
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...GENERALLY 20Z TO 00Z IN THE WEST AND 00Z TO 03Z FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES TO COVER THE INITIAL ROUND OF BRISK SOUTHERLIES/
SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY. WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...JJR/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201757
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCKED INTO THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY AND HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 45 KNOTS...EVEN TO 50 KNOTS AT
TIMES. WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR THESE ACCELERATED WINDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND WILL FILL IN
AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL
JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND A STEEPER SURFACE BASED LAPSE
RATE MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT...THEN COOLER TO COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. THIS REGIME WILL BE ANCHORED
BY A PATTERN INDUCING OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASINGLY CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER OUR REGION...BUT WHILE THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL ACTUALLY BE PCPN FREE. NOTE
THAT THE TERM `PCPN` IS USED RATHER THAN RAIN. MORE ON THIS IN A
MOMENT. IN ANY CASE...THE SHOWERS THAT WE DO RECEIVE WILL LARGELY BE
GENERATED BY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
NEARLY STATIONARY GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...WITH A LITTLE ASSISTANCE
GIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE DETAILS...

THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS WE OPEN
THIS PERIOD ON TUESDAY...WHILE A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE FOUND
DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SFC...WEAK RIDGING OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WILL FLATTEN OUT AND PUSH EAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS WE LOSE THE SFC BASED RIDGING...A 100KT H3
JET WILL RACE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN NEW YORK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
JET ENTRANCE REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH A LITTLE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...SHOULD GENERATE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION.
AGAIN...THIS SHOULD COME AFTER GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT A CHILLY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE ERIE WILL NEGATE ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE IAG
FRONTIER AND THUS GREATLY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THOSE FROM MONDAY.

AN ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN THE BULK OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL WITH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING OFF INTO THE 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EAST AND BECOME
CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO...WHILE THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT THAT A PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER OUR REGION. THE ADDITION OF THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
COME AT A TIME WHEN DEEPENING CHILLY AIR OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9
DEG/C KM UP THROUGH H7 ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MORE FREQUENT/WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS. GIVEN H85 TEMPS
OF -2 TO -4C...IT WILL BE RATHER RAW ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50 EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. IN FACT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WET
SNOW MIXING AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SRN TIER. THIS WILL ADDED TO THE GRIDS FOR ELEVATIONS OVER 1500 FEET.

AS THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES SOUTH OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ARND -8C.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE THE QPF WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH...ACCUMULATIONS (OTHER THAN ON CARS, ETC) ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.

THE DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FINALLY START TO FILL ON THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THIS ANOMALOUS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY MAKE THIS THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE AS H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6 TO -8C.
AGAIN...WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PCPN TO DEAL WITH...WHAT WE DO
RECEIVE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE THAN 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL VALUES AS THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT BE AS AMPLIFIED AS DURING THE
DAYS LEADING INTO THIS PERIOD...A CLOSED LOW SPIRALING TO THE EAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CONTINUED LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE PROXIMITY OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD THOUGH WILL BE PCPN FREE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR A MAJORITY OF TAF SITES. THE ONLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DURING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING AND
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...GENERALLY 20Z TO 00Z IN THE WEST AND 00Z TO 03Z FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE
ZONES TO COVER THE INITIAL ROUND OF BRISK SOUTHERLIES/
SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY. WHILE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME THESE APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF ANY SUCH ADDITIONAL FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...JJR/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE AROUND, BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE MIXING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DACKS AND
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. LATEST LOCAL 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT 925MB WINDS PEAKING AT 50-60KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS, AND THUS A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT MONDAY...AS THE OCCLUSION SHIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT AND LOW LEVEL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION OF
THE IDEA OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
SCATTERED AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
ANOTHER DRY SLOT SHIFTING OVER THE REGION, BUT IS RENEWED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTING THROUGH REGION. TEMPS RUN NEAR CLIMO
IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN 00Z NWP
GUIDANCE SUITE CONCERNING THE GENERALLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
CONTROLLING SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BE LARGE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC
UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WED NIGHT. THIS
CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY EWD...AND GENERALLY
BECOMING QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WITHIN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND SEASONABLY LOW THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS THRU THE PERIOD. AS
SUCH...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO AVERAGE...WITH VALLEY HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S THU/FRI...AND MID 50S SAT/SUN.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING PERIODS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTN (30-40 POPS)...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND (20-30 POPS). THE COLDEST THERMAL/THICKNESS FIELDS ARE
GENERALLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 00Z GFS 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED AT -5 TO -6C. GENERALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX WITH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ABOVE 1000-1500FT DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500`
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AT
SUMMIT LOCATIONS. PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN COOL
TEMPERATURE REGIME THRU THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MOST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE SE WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS AND LOCALLY TO 40 KTS WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AT RUT AND
SLK. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING PERIODS
OF MVFR THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SEE ALL SITES IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. TONIGHT, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
POSSIBLE MAINLY 06-12Z TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CEILINGS AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS...DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY SOME SNOW POSSIBLY WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK...AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VTZ006-011-
     016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ029>031.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 201725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
DRAG AN OCCLUDED THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF
BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER SUMMITS. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH ON AND OFF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 130 PM
UPDATE.

MAIN UPDATE FOR THE 1030 AM FORECAST PACKAGE IS TO ADD IN MENTION
OF SLEET AND SNOW. SEEMS THAT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING
DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH...THE SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. A QUICK
INCH OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN DRY SLOT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON.

VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE ATTENDING OCCLUDED FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY, THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND BY
MID-DAY ACROSS VERMONT. HIGHEST PWATS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA
MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE WARM SECTOR, BUT DO APPROACH 1"
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN BEING
MODERATE AT TIMES. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SHIFTS INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COINCIDING WITH A
STRONG 925-850MB JET TRAVERSING THE AREA. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AN