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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST MONDAY...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
RAIN TIMING AND BLEND IN OBSERVED WEATHER. FORECAST UNFOLDING AS
PLANNED, RAIN COVERING MOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT JUST NOW MOVING
IN TO FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT, AND BEGINNING ITS EXIT OF WESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. TREND OF RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RELATIVE MIN IN POPS EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
COME BACK UP TO CHANCE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND
PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON


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000
FXUS61 KBGM 241148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF REGION
BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW VFR AS AREA RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO
PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241148
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST MONDAY...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
RAIN TIMING AND BLEND IN OBSERVED WEATHER. FORECAST UNFOLDING AS
PLANNED, RAIN COVERING MOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT JUST NOW MOVING
IN TO FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT, AND BEGINNING ITS EXIT OF WESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. TREND OF RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RELATIVE MIN IN POPS EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
COME BACK UP TO CHANCE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND
PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THREAT OF LLWS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
WINDS 2000-4000FT OF 45-70KT. A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THIS
MORNING ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18Z...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING LOCALLY TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A
COLD FRONT MAKES IT WAY INTO NORTHERN NY. COULD BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBGM 241148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF REGION
BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW VFR AS AREA RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO
PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241148
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON FOR WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET CORE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND ALTHOUGH MESONET SITES
SHOW LIMITED GUSTS A FEW ISOLATED TREES AND WIRES DOWN HAVE BEEN
REPORTED VIA SCANNER. OTHERWISE UPDATED POPS AS RAIN IS LIFTING
OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISC...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND END THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION
WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER
THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS
FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69 RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY
FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN HAS LIFTED NORTH OF REGION
BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO LOW VFR AS AREA RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC
OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO
PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM





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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241140
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
640 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35KT TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR
INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E
BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AS NOT TO CAUSE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION TO
MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241140
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
640 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35KT TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR
INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E
BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AS NOT TO CAUSE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION TO
MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EST MONDAY...UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST
RAIN TIMING AND BLEND IN OBSERVED WEATHER. FORECAST UNFOLDING AS
PLANNED, RAIN COVERING MOST ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT JUST NOW MOVING
IN TO FAR NORTHEAST VERMONT, AND BEGINNING ITS EXIT OF WESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. TREND OF RAIN ENDING WEST TO EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. RELATIVE MIN IN POPS EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
COME BACK UP TO CHANCE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND
SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH LATER TODAY.

FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES QUITE
WARM...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW
LEVEL JET OVER 60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND
PREVENT WIND FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS
WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT
ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 241127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 14Z/MON FROM
SW TO NE...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THE CLOUDS CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST CIGS RISING TO MVFR...AND
POSSIBLY VFR. FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FROM THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX
DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS...ESP AT KGFL AND
PERHAPS KPOU.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS
WILL TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER
SUNSET...BEFORE SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN
04Z-06Z/TUE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH AROUND 13Z-
15Z/MON...AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT
40-50 KT...WHILE SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FROM
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...DECREASING THE THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 241120
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RECENT WIND GUSTS OF 42 KTS WAS REPORTED AT
KDDH (BENNINGTON ASOS), 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN ONCE THE
RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST
THREE HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL. CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP
ACROSS WNY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35-50KT. STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND
SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF
40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION
TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST
THREE HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL. CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP
ACROSS WNY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35-50KT. STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND
SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF
40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION
TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 240955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN  MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
982MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SE CANADA WHILE DEEPENING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC OBS HAD THE FRONT
THROUGH NYC AND PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN AS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF W TO E.

KOKX VWP ALREADY INDICATING A 60KT LLJ BETWEEN 3K-6K FT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH 12Z OR SO ENHANCING
RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING AS
WELL...SO HAVE LEFT THE SCHC THUNDER. LAST 3 HRS OF RADAR IMAGERY
DO SHOW A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TRACKING FROM THE
DELMARVA AND INTO THE AREA SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING
PRESENT...WILL GIVE IT A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE PULLING IT OUT.

STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ONCE THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT COULD SEE WIND ADVSY GUSTS AT THE
COAST. HAVE EXPANDED ADVSY TO INCLUDE COASTAL CT...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND THE REST OF NYC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BRIDGES AND
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NAM/GFS INDICATING 40-50KT BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 FT. THE HRRR...RAP...AND WRF MODELS ARE EVEN HIGHER BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE.

STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS MORNING AND WITH INCREASED STABILITY
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY E OF NYC THINK THE ADVSY
THREAT WILL CEASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY
FOR INTERIOR S CT.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.

RA TURNS TO SHRA FOR CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS BY THE MORNING PUSH
SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO
20-25 KT WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MID-MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH
THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS
TO PULL BACK THE END TIME OF THE GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
11Z TO 06Z TUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCA CONDS BY THEN. END TIME
OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN
SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........67
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ010>012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN  MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
982MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SE CANADA WHILE DEEPENING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC OBS HAD THE FRONT
THROUGH NYC AND PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN AS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF W TO E.

KOKX VWP ALREADY INDICATING A 60KT LLJ BETWEEN 3K-6K FT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH 12Z OR SO ENHANCING
RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING AS
WELL...SO HAVE LEFT THE SCHC THUNDER. LAST 3 HRS OF RADAR IMAGERY
DO SHOW A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TRACKING FROM THE
DELMARVA AND INTO THE AREA SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING
PRESENT...WILL GIVE IT A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE PULLING IT OUT.

STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ONCE THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT COULD SEE WIND ADVSY GUSTS AT THE
COAST. HAVE EXPANDED ADVSY TO INCLUDE COASTAL CT...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND THE REST OF NYC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BRIDGES AND
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NAM/GFS INDICATING 40-50KT BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 FT. THE HRRR...RAP...AND WRF MODELS ARE EVEN HIGHER BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE.

STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS MORNING AND WITH INCREASED STABILITY
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY E OF NYC THINK THE ADVSY
THREAT WILL CEASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY
FOR INTERIOR S CT.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.

RA TURNS TO SHRA FOR CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS BY THE MORNING PUSH
SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO
20-25 KT WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MID-MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH
THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS
TO PULL BACK THE END TIME OF THE GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
11Z TO 06Z TUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCA CONDS BY THEN. END TIME
OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN
SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........67
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ010>012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN  MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
982MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SE CANADA WHILE DEEPENING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC OBS HAD THE FRONT
THROUGH NYC AND PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN AS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF W TO E.

KOKX VWP ALREADY INDICATING A 60KT LLJ BETWEEN 3K-6K FT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH 12Z OR SO ENHANCING
RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING AS
WELL...SO HAVE LEFT THE SCHC THUNDER. LAST 3 HRS OF RADAR IMAGERY
DO SHOW A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TRACKING FROM THE
DELMARVA AND INTO THE AREA SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING
PRESENT...WILL GIVE IT A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE PULLING IT OUT.

STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ONCE THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT COULD SEE WIND ADVSY GUSTS AT THE
COAST. HAVE EXPANDED ADVSY TO INCLUDE COASTAL CT...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND THE REST OF NYC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BRIDGES AND
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NAM/GFS INDICATING 40-50KT BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 FT. THE HRRR...RAP...AND WRF MODELS ARE EVEN HIGHER BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE.

STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS MORNING AND WITH INCREASED STABILITY
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY E OF NYC THINK THE ADVSY
THREAT WILL CEASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY
FOR INTERIOR S CT.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.

RA TURNS TO SHRA FOR CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS BY THE MORNING PUSH
SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO
20-25 KT WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MID-MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH
THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS
TO PULL BACK THE END TIME OF THE GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
11Z TO 06Z TUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCA CONDS BY THEN. END TIME
OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN
SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........67
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ010>012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN  MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
982MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SE CANADA WHILE DEEPENING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC OBS HAD THE FRONT
THROUGH NYC AND PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN AS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF W TO E.

KOKX VWP ALREADY INDICATING A 60KT LLJ BETWEEN 3K-6K FT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH 12Z OR SO ENHANCING
RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING AS
WELL...SO HAVE LEFT THE SCHC THUNDER. LAST 3 HRS OF RADAR IMAGERY
DO SHOW A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TRACKING FROM THE
DELMARVA AND INTO THE AREA SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING
PRESENT...WILL GIVE IT A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE PULLING IT OUT.

STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ONCE THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT COULD SEE WIND ADVSY GUSTS AT THE
COAST. HAVE EXPANDED ADVSY TO INCLUDE COASTAL CT...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND THE REST OF NYC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BRIDGES AND
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NAM/GFS INDICATING 40-50KT BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 FT. THE HRRR...RAP...AND WRF MODELS ARE EVEN HIGHER BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE.

STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS MORNING AND WITH INCREASED STABILITY
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY E OF NYC THINK THE ADVSY
THREAT WILL CEASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY
FOR INTERIOR S CT.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.

RA TURNS TO SHRA FOR CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS BY THE MORNING PUSH
SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO
20-25 KT WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MID-MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH
THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS
TO PULL BACK THE END TIME OF THE GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
11Z TO 06Z TUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCA CONDS BY THEN. END TIME
OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN
SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........67
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ010>012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN  MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
982MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SE CANADA WHILE DEEPENING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC OBS HAD THE FRONT
THROUGH NYC AND PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN AS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF W TO E.

KOKX VWP ALREADY INDICATING A 60KT LLJ BETWEEN 3K-6K FT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH 12Z OR SO ENHANCING
RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING AS
WELL...SO HAVE LEFT THE SCHC THUNDER. LAST 3 HRS OF RADAR IMAGERY
DO SHOW A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TRACKING FROM THE
DELMARVA AND INTO THE AREA SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING
PRESENT...WILL GIVE IT A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE PULLING IT OUT.

STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ONCE THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT COULD SEE WIND ADVSY GUSTS AT THE
COAST. HAVE EXPANDED ADVSY TO INCLUDE COASTAL CT...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND THE REST OF NYC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BRIDGES AND
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NAM/GFS INDICATING 40-50KT BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 FT. THE HRRR...RAP...AND WRF MODELS ARE EVEN HIGHER BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE.

STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS MORNING AND WITH INCREASED STABILITY
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY E OF NYC THINK THE ADVSY
THREAT WILL CEASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY
FOR INTERIOR S CT.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING.

RA TURNS TO SHRA FOR CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS BY THE MORNING PUSH
SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO
20-25 KT WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
MID-MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN.
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES
NOT OCCUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH
THIS AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS
TO PULL BACK THE END TIME OF THE GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
11Z TO 06Z TUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCA CONDS BY THEN. END TIME
OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN
SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........67
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ010>012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBGM 240928
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240928
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
428 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
425 AM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS.

BEFORE THAT...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE COLD AIR WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS REMAIN WEST OF FA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY BUT MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP BULK OF WEAK ACTIVITY NORTH OF REGION.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY...UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
U.S. WILL DIG INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...INITIATING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW /THIS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL WITH
THIS SYSTEM/...FROM THIS HAS GENERATED A DEEP COASTAL LOW HEADING
UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TRACK FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO INVOLVE A LARGE CHUNK OF OUR REGION IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW. NAM BARELY SKIMS OUR REGION WITH EDGE OF A WEAKER LOW...YET
HAS BEEN GENERALLY TRENDING WEST. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE THE MIDDLE
GROUND...TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND INVOLVING AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WHILE ECMWF AND GFS DISAGREE ON AREA TO BE MOST IMPACTED...THEY
BOTH EXHIBIT SOME HALLMARKS OF WHAT USUALLY LEADS TO DEVELOPMENT
OF A QUASI-STATIONARY MESOSCALE HEAVY SNOW BAND. THIS INCLUDES A
SW TO NE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH UPPER
FLOW...GREAT JET SUPPORT WITH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC-CURVED STRONG
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
/PERHAPS LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM AS WELL/...AND IN THE
ECMWF...A 700MB LOW THAT IS CUTTING OFF IN OUR REGION AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES PAST...NEARLY SO IN THE GFS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY TO
SHAKE OUT ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES...FOR PORTIONS OF
POCONOS-WESTERN CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FOR
INCLUDES WAYNE-PIKE IN NEPA AND SULLIVAN-DELAWARE IN NY.

THE WATCH AREA HAS POTENTIAL FOR 7 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING A FOOT...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED AS THE MODELS CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FARTHER TO THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-81...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY.
IF CONFIDENCE DOES INCREASE...ADDITIONAL ZONES MAY BE ADDED TO THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...AND THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR AREA...THE BIGGER
THE IMPACT. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE
SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH
A PERSISTENT POLAR FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
BANDS WILL LINE UP EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MDP/RRM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 240906
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE SAW
LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS THOUGH
THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KBGM 240906
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. TODAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND END THE
STEADY RAIN BY DAYBREAK. AS THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, REGION WILL RESIDE IN THE
WARM SECTOR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED FORCING. A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
35 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TODAY`S RECORDS FOR SYR/BGM/AVP ARE 70/63/69
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY ONE THAT MAY FALL WOULD BE BGM.

AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE IS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE SAW
LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN FACT...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK AS THOUGH
THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WET BULB COOLING OF
NEAR SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSING BY
EVENING. EXPECTING SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EARLY TAPERING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WHICH WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NEK. TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AT NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW MTN SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND OVER NIGHT
LOWS IN TEENS, PERHAPS A BIT COLDER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

A WARM THEN COLD FRONT PASSAGES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE
MODELS. THIS WILL DICTATE WHETHER THE SHOWERS ARE RAIN OR SNOW BUT KEPT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND BUT TEMPS COULD SWING A BIT MILDER IT WOULD BE
MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET ON AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT BRINGING RAIN TO THE LAKE MAINLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONLY A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
DOWNWARD SLIDE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAINLY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. IMPACTS
ON TRAVEL WILL BE FELT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NEW YORK AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...IN THE NEAR TERM THE MAIN FORECAST
FOCUS IS THE SHIELD OF WARM FRONTAL RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH AT 500 MB OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE EAST RIDING UP OVER A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT TRAILING ALONG INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE/FRANKLIN/ESSEX COUNTIES AROUND 08Z, COVER
NEAR ALL THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT NORTHEAST KINGDOM BY 12Z, AND
MOVE TO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. RAIN TO END WEST TO EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM...IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORTED BY SURGE OF WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEAR 13 C. SPEAKING OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS QUITE STRONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
60 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
TO SURFACE HOWEVER AS THEY REMAIN ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
AND RAINFALL TENDS TO STABILIZE LOWEST LEVELS AND PREVENT WIND
FROM MIXING. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS & HIGHEST RIDGETOPS WILL SEE
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER NO POPULATION UP THERE TO WARRANT ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 AM EST MONDAY...AFTER PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION IS ELIMINATED AND MORE MIXING OCCURS FROM
SURFACE THROUGH BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER WINDS DO MIX DOWN,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN NEW YORK, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
SOMEWHEAT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG
NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE ADIRIONDACKS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 25 KTS WITH IN THE MID 30S KTS WITH WIDESPREAD 15-25 KTS
ELSEWHERE. VERY NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORY IN UPCOMING FORECAST.

COOLING TREND BEGINS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY, AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW FROM THE WEST STARTS
A TREND OF LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING OF THE AIR COLUMN.
RELATIVE QUIET PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OFF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. STARTS OFF WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THEN
EVENTUALLY COOLS TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
THEN COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PRESENCE FELT.

GFS/ECMWF BEGINNING TO ALIGN A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS OF GFS BEING FURTHER EAST AND FASTER WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES. GFS TRACK WOULD KEEP FORECAST AREA IN
THE COLDER AIR WITH LESS FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE
ECMWF IS WETTER BUT WARMER SOLUTION WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXED
IN AT SOME POINT. TIMING WOULD BE PRECIP BEGINNING AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE IT
WOULD BE NEARLY ALL SNOW AS TEMPS FROM 925 MB UPWARD BELOW
FREEZING. SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ONSET OF PRECIP, AND
WESTERN ECMWF COULD THROW SOME WARMER AIR IN. HOWEVER WITH COOLING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE LIFE OF THE STORM AND WETBULB COOLING OF NEAR
SURFACE LAYER EXPECT MAINLY SNOW.

USING MODEL BLEND OF QPF CAME UP WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IN THE
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER OF VERMONT COUNTIES AND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST. RESULTING
SNOWFALL USING A STANDARD 13 TO 1 RATIO PUTS SOUTHERN VERMONT
RIGHT AT WINTER STORM WATCH CRITERIA. HOWEVER NOT UP TO THE 50%
CERTAINTY TO WARRANT A WATCH GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
RUN TO RUN CHANGES BETWEEN EACH. WILL WAIT ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE
FOR A HEADLINE DECISION WHICH WILL ALSO ALLOW INCORPORATION OF 12Z
THU-00Z FRI QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS ENTIRE
STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240629
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH 08-10Z...THEN THREAT OF LLWS AS
WINDS 2000-4000FT WILL BE 40-70KT FROM THE SOUTH AS A LARGE CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER QUICKLY TO MVFR BY 10-13Z.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ON
AND OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAY INTO NORTHERN NY.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT...MAINLY MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBUF 240622
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
122 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240622
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
122 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1258 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1258 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS ABOUT 2K FT OFF THE
SURFACE. A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IN GENERAL LOW MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EXCEPT OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTIH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z,
AT KBGM BETWEEN 08Z-15Z AND AT KAVP BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR MID/LATE MORNING AS REGION RESIDES
IN WARM SECTOR. THIS EVENING THE SFC OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH
BUT BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY DRY WITH NO PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

SE SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT
12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240547
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA
CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS AS CAT POPS STILL A 1-2
HOURS AWAY. ALSO UPDATED HOURLY T/TD TO ALIGN BETTER WITH LATEST
OBS/TRENDS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW
SHWRS THEREAFTER. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH. AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANIES LLJ IN THE MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET MIDSHIFT RE-
EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE...GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF
SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT
MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUING TO TREND WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE
12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF
BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT.

-SHRA FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AT THE START...THEN STEADIER RAIN WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS BY 08Z. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN 09-15Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL... ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AT
2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH 13Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH
BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE
NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND DEPARTING LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS
BASED ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE MON MRNG CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240547
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA
CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS AS CAT POPS STILL A 1-2
HOURS AWAY. ALSO UPDATED HOURLY T/TD TO ALIGN BETTER WITH LATEST
OBS/TRENDS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW
SHWRS THEREAFTER. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH. AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACCOMPANIES LLJ IN THE MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET MIDSHIFT RE-
EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE...GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF
SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT
MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUING TO TREND WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE
12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF
BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT.

-SHRA FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AT THE START...THEN STEADIER RAIN WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS BY 08Z. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN 09-15Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL... ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AT
2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH 13Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT
WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH
BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE
NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND DEPARTING LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS
BASED ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE MON MRNG CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ075-
     176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 240537
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1237 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY... MINOR TWEAKS TO THIS FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO OBSERVED AND FURTHER TIME ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITY HAVE LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 08Z AND LIFT NORTH
EAST IN SUBSEQUENT HOURS. RADAR UPSTREAM SHOWING SOLID AREA OF
RAIN SO WENT FULL 100 PERCENT POPS AS RAIN LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 240531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM EST...MAJOR OVERHAUL OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN AND WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN BY A COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 4 AM THROUGH
NOON TODAY. 0-30 MB AGL WINDS SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KTS ACRS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON TIME.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND THE TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL FOCUS THE
RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUS
PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BECOME
MODERATE TO HVY INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
BTWN 09Z- 12Z. THE RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND
MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST SUNDAY... WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE DAY BREAK HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH A STRATUS DECK ACROSS VERMONT AND NEW
YORK. RIGHT NOW THE WARM FRONT PRECIP SHIELD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS JUST MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND SO I EXPECT IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 4 TO 5 HOURS
BEFORE IT BEGINS IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SOAKING RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA SO I QUICKLY ENDED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z OR 10AM EST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST OVER NIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WARM AIR FROM THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND TOMORROW WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240303
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST SUNDAY... WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE DAY BREAK HAS MOVED WELL INTO THE AREA. SKIES ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH A STRATUS DECK ACROSS VERMONT AND NEW
YORK. RIGHT NOW THE WARM FRONT PRECIP SHIELD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS JUST MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK AND SO I EXPECT IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 4 TO 5 HOURS
BEFORE IT BEGINS IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SOAKING RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE AND THEN PUSH QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA SO I QUICKLY ENDED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z OR 10AM EST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST OVER NIGHT LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S LOW 40S OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WARM AIR FROM THE
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND TOMORROW WILL WARM UP TO THE UPPER
50S LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KOKX 240238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS. TEMPS DROPPED
OFF A BIT...BUT WITH CLOUDS APPROACHING...CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD
STEADY AND SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAIN MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON MRNG...WITH
MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR MOST OF MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN
INCH. AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI- STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS A TONGUE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES LLJ IN THE MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET MIDSHIFT RE-
EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE...GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF
SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT
MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUING TO TREND WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE
12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF
BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 05-06Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS
BASED ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE MON MRNG CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240238
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
938 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS. TEMPS DROPPED
OFF A BIT...BUT WITH CLOUDS APPROACHING...CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD
STEADY AND SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAIN MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH MON MRNG...WITH
MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR MOST OF MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN
INCH. AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
TRI- STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AS A TONGUE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES LLJ IN THE MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET MIDSHIFT RE-
EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE...GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF
SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT
MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUING TO TREND WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE
12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF
BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 05-06Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS
BASED ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE MON MRNG CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KALY 240236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 936 PM EST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING WITH H500
HEIGHTS OVERLAYED DEPICTS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE TN VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. WE CONTINUED THE TREND TO TWEAK THE POPS BACK SLIGHTLY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. EXPECTING THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL
FOCUS THE RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN
ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN GREENS TOWARDS 12Z. FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAIN COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HVY
INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE
RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL.

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240211
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
911 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240211
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
911 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240211
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
911 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240211
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
911 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
910 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TONIGHT, MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.

315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
732 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
732 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240009
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
709 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN AFT MIDNIGHT
INTO MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR MOST OF
MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH. AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING AS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES LLJ
IN THE MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET MIDSHIFT RE-
EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE...GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF
SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT
MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUING TO TREND WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE
12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF
BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY
DEVELOPS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS
BASED ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE MON MRNG CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KOKX 240009
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
709 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN AFT MIDNIGHT
INTO MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR MOST OF
MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH. AN EMBEDDED TSTM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING AS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACCOMPANIES LLJ
IN THE MORNING.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WIND ADVISORY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET MIDSHIFT RE-
EVALUATE.

OTHERWISE...GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF
SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. IT IS WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT
MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE
PHASED SHORTWAVE ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUING TO TREND WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE
12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF
BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY
DEVELOPS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS
BASED ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE MON MRNG CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KBGM 232358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 232358
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
MILD...WITH A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHILLIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
315 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
RGN BY 21-23Z...WITH SOME CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM PA FOR THE LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS.

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...THOUGH...AS A WARM FRNTL BNDRY AND AREA OF
STEADY RAINFALL ARE NORTHBOUND FROM THE SERN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FA FROM S TO N...GENERALLY IN THE
02-06Z PD. ALTHOUGH FORCED ASCENT IS FAIRLY STG OVERNIGHT...THE
OVERALL SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG...AND THUS MAX RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD BE
KEPT MOSTLY IN THE 0.50.75" RANGE...MAINLY FROM ABT I-81 EWD.

STG SRLY FLOW AND LOW-LVL WAA WILL RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP
TREND ONCE AGN...WITH RISING TEMPS FORESEEN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
325 PM UPDATE... WE STILL EXPECT THAT CNY/NE PA WILL BREAK INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HIGH TEMPS THAT COULD
APPROACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME PLACES (WELL INTO THE 60S).
ALTHOUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN-FREE
     ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...GIVEN A FAIRLY MOIST
AMS...AND THE APPROACH OF A SFC COLD FRNT LATE IN THE DAY.

THE JUST REFERRED TO COLD FRNT SHOULD PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE
CWA MON EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD SHWRS. A CAA REGIME WILL THEN BE
WITH US FROM LATE MON NGT...THROUGH TUE...AND TUE NGT.

ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CNY/NE
PA THIS PD...THE OPTIMUM WORD IS GRADUAL...AS THE MAIN CHUNK OF
ARCTIC AIR AT LEAST INITIALLY HANGS BACK IN THE UPR MIDWEST AND
SRN CANADA. ALSO...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SWLY THIS
PD...STEERING ANY LES (WHICH SHOULD NOT BE SIG ANYWAY...GIVEN MUCH
LESS LK GENERATED INSTAB...AND LWR INVERSION HGTS THAN WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK) MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF OUR FCST AREA. IN
FACT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY TUE...BLYR TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK
AS THOUGH THEY COULD SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX.

BY LATER TUE NGT...ANY LINGERING LGT -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD BE ON THE
WANE...AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE DRIES UP. WE`LL
THEN TURN OUR EYES TO THE S...TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH POTENTIAL
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS TWDS THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PD. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ONE OF THE HIGHEST PEAK
TRAVEL TIMES OF THE YEAR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE CYCLONE POSITION, THOUGH THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. TAKING A CONSENSUS GFS-ECMWF FORECAST
INTO ACCOUNT, LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD FALL FROM JUST WEST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR BACK TOWARD THE WYOMING VALLEY. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF SNOW WOULD FALL WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE POCONOS UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS WHERE WE HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODELS AND THE OBSERVED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE TREND HOWEVER IS FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL TO
INCREASE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH
MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR POTENTIAL LAKE SNOW AREAS. TROF WILL
DESCEND UPON THE NERN CONUS ONCE AGAIN WITH A PERSISTENT POLAR
FLOW OUT OF CANADA. BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WILL ACTIVATE,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BANDS WILL LINE UP
EXACTLY. BEST FIRST GUESS: ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM FAR
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LLWS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z TUE FOR ALL TERMINALS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.

VFR WILL BE PROMINENT THRU 06Z TONIGHT BUT CIGS WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP IN BETTER
MOISTURE. WINDS AT 1500 FEET WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 40-45KTS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 45-5-KTS DURING THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE 2KFT LEVEL. NOT EXPECTING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
TO DROP BELOW 40KTS NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WL MAINTAIN LLWS THRU 00Z
TUE AT ALL TAF SITES.

SSE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8-15KTS THRU THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT...SHRA AND GUSTY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON EVENING.

TUE-TUE NGT...MAINLY VFR.

WED-WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HEAVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH
PW VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS
IN THE GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO
0.60"...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS
IN THE UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN A LARGE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MOVES IN RAPIDLY AFTER 08Z AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
AFTER 08Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...
THERE WILL BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT KSLK THROUGH 03Z DUE TO FOG.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EST SUNDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS LINE
OF THINKING. THE OUTER EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSH INTO THE REGION. ONCE THAT STRATUS
DECK HAS SET IN... TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. ONLY REAL CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE WERE TO MATCH TEMP AND
DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS TO GET THE DIURNAL TREND CORRECT AND
SLIGHTLY BRING UP SKY COVERAGE AS THE CEILINGS ARE UPSTREAM ARE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREVIOUSLY AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM
FRONTAL BAND OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN
09-12Z MONDAY. WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-
NE. OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH 2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY
WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY
BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...DEAL/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 232323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 623 PM EST...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TWEAK THE POPS BACK
SLIGHTLY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXPECTING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBUF 232059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 232059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 232058
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR COMPOSITE IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW THE ADVANCING SHIELD OF
RAIN S OF DC. THE 12Z MODEL DATA WAS ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING
RAIN FCST SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. TIMING IS STILL AFT
MIDNIGHT INTO MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR
MOST OF MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SUFFOLK
COUNTY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS
WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT MODELS DIVERGE
ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE PHASED SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS
RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT
MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON
TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND WEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE 12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST
AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY
NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...SO MAINTAINED
THE SCA TIL 23Z.

STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS BASED
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS COULD TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS
DURING THE MON MRNG CYCLE. A STATEMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
ATTM. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 5-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 232058
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MON NGT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING INTO THE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DEPARTING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...WITH A ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR COMPOSITE IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW THE ADVANCING SHIELD OF
RAIN S OF DC. THE 12Z MODEL DATA WAS ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING
RAIN FCST SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED. TIMING IS STILL AFT
MIDNIGHT INTO MON MRNG...WITH MAINLY A FEW SHWRS THEREAFTER FOR
MOST OF MON. PCPN AMTS AROUND AN INCH.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN DOES LOOK TO FALL NEAR THE MRNG RUSH SO IMPACTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z MON...THE CWA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 970S LOW OVER
THE UPR GREAT LAKES...AND A 1030S HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO STRONG SLY FLOW. THE GFS HAS H975 WINDS OVER
50KT FOR MOST OF LI...WHICH IS CONCERNING. HAVE MIXED DOWN 80
PERCENT OF THIS FOR THE FCST AND ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR ALL OF
LI...INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NWD INTO CSTL CT IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS.

THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT SHIFT EWD THRU THE DAY...SO
ONLY KEPT THE WRN PORTION OF THE ADVY THRU THE MRNG. SUFFOLK
COUNTY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT COMES THRU OVERNIGHT. THIS USHERS THE MORE
HUMID AIRMASS OFFSHORE. THE PRES GRAD STILL STAYS UP SO IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY THRU THE NGT. SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN BLW ADVY
CRITERIA WITH THE LOW APPROACHING LABRADOR. A FEW SHWRS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. THE NAM HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SUGGESTION. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS FOR
THE PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD AIR LAGGING BEHIND AND WINDS KEEPING THE LLVLS
MIXED...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABV
AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ON TUES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ITS
WAKE TUES NIGHT.

POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A COASTAL STORM WITH SNOW...RAIN
AND WIND TO IMPACT THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT...BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATE IN TERMS OF EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST SENSITIVITY BASED ON SBU CSTAR ANALYSIS FOR THIS SYSTEM
LIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGH OVER THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AND RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM STRENGTH OF WEST COAST RIDGING AND
ULTIMATELY STRENGTH OF EAST COAST TROUGHING FOR MIDWEEK.
OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MODEL
FIELDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INITIALLY WITH
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND PAC ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
DEEP CENTRAL US TROUGHING...WITH THIS ENERGY THEN SWINGING UP THE
COAST WED AND INTERACTING WITH YET ANOTHER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT IS
WITH THIS SECOND INTERACTION...AFTER 48 HRS...THAT MODELS DIVERGE
ENOUGH TO AFFECT STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE PHASED SHORTWAVE
ENERGIES AS THEY PIVOT THROUGH THE NE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS IS
RESULTING IN MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COASTAL LOW...BUT
MAINLY TRACK DIFFERENCES. THE RANGE OF OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ON
TRACK OF COASTAL LOW ARE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUING TO TREND WEST
AND TRACKING ACROSS LI WED NIGHT...TO THE 12Z NAM/CMC TRENDING WEST
AND PROJECTING WELL EAST OF BENCHMARK...AND 12Z GFS CONSISTENTLY
NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON.

WITH THIS SPREAD HAVE CONTINUED TO PLAY A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
BETWEEN CMC/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW
PRESSURE NEAR TO JUST INSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT.
WITH ONLY A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS TO START...THIS TRACK WOULD
BRING MAINLY RAIN TO LI/SE CT...RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND
SW CT...AND MAINLY SNOW WELL N&W OF NYC...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED
NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK
NORTH. THIS MESHES FAIRLY WELL WITH WPC...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEEING WARNING LEVEL SNOW RELEGATED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE
NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY..AND SW CT...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO NYC METRO AND COASTAL SW CT SUN NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE VALUES IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT BASED ON ABOVE
MENTIONED SPREAD. PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW WITH THIS DAY 4 EVENT FOR A
DETERMINISTIC STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST.

ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY QUIET AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SEASONABLE. A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER MAY PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z TONIGHT. RAIN WITH IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPS
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIFR AT TIMES IN RAIN POSSIBLE 9-14Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER AROUND THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF NYC METRO.

IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

LIGHT S WINDS INTO THE EVENING TURN TOWARD THE SE.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AT 2000FT RANGING FROM 50-65 KT.

SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY 10-13Z. SPEEDS
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. A FEW COASTAL
GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE ERN OCEAN REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE...SO MAINTAINED
THE SCA TIL 23Z.

STRONG PRES GRAD SETS UP LATE TNGT ALLOWING FOR SLY FLOW THRU MON
NGT. GALES DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND CONTINUE THRU MON. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE MON NGT FROM W TO E. THE GALE WAS EXTENDED FOR THE ERN
WATERS...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINING WATERS BASED
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYS.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A TIGHT WNW
GRADIENT...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSE IN.

SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY WED AFT THRU THU AS A COASTAL STORM
AFFECTS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS ON THE
EASTERN WATERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
TO THE REGION. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELLS AND TIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME
OF THE MRNG COMMUTE.

INCREASING POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WED
INTO WED NIGHT. SOME PORTION OF THIS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS N&W OF THE NYC METRO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS COULD TOUCH MINOR THRESHOLDS
DURING THE MON MRNG CYCLE. A STATEMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
ATTM. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 5-8FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........68
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ075-176>179.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JMC
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 232053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING. A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN TIME
FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY...BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDDAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LINGER...MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WINDS WILL BE STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE...LIKELY STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT...BEFORE WARM FRONTAL BAND OF
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY.
WE/LL SEE LOW STRATUS LAYER BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THIS EVENING AS
GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE S-SSW. AT THE SAME TIME
HOWEVER...MID- UPR CLOUD CANOPY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SW-NE. OVERALL
EFFECT WILL BE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. STAYED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS CONSENSUS...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S (NOT FALLING MUCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT). 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR LOOKS FAR TOO COLD/STABLE WITH
2-M TEMPS (1C AT 01Z FOR BTV? THE REALITY WILL LIKELY BE 7-8C AT
THAT TIME). AS A RESULT MOS IS LIKELY BIASED COLD AS WELL.

WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND ARRIVES ABRUPTLY FROM SW-NE
09-12Z WITH RAPID ONSET OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL MAKE FOR A WET MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY...WITH MOD-
HVY RAIN THRU ABOUT 15Z. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH PW
VALUES OF 1.1-1.2" IN NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE CHARACTER FOR STRATIFORM RAINS IN THE
GRIDS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.30" TO 0.60"...HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTH FACING OROGRAPHIC AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FOR A BRIEF TIME MONDAY MORNING...INCLUDED THIS IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAIN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION QUICKLY AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING STRATUS/OVERCAST
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY (WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS). MODERATE SOUTH/SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND +10C. DESPITE LACK
OF ANY INSOLATIONAL HEATING...HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GENERALLY 14-18F
ABOVE THE 30-YEAR AVERAGE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 PM EST SUNDAY...CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NY. A GRADUAL SW-WSWLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED BRINGING ONSET OF
LOW-LEVEL CAA AND STEEP NEAR- SURFACE LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...LOOKING AT 900-850MB FLOW INCREASING TO 60-70 KNOTS AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OUT ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC.
SHOULD SEE GOOD DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH POTENTIAL SWLY
SURFACE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND 35-45
MPH FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO NWRN VT. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TO COVER THIS WIND THREAT 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY
QUIET. WILL SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS EMANATING FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...AND CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. MAY SEE A
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE FAR NRN GREEN MOUNTAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...AND MID-UPR 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. SW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL BREEZY WITH WINDS
15-25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE SW WINDS 5-10 MPH AND
VARIABLE CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EST SUNDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF THIS STORM...LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY
AT 18Z...THEN TRACKING INSIDE THE BENCHMARK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 06Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER WEST INTO LONG
ISLAND SOUND BY THAT TIME...DRAGGING ABOUT 06 HOURS SLOWER. RIGHT
NOW BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW IS EAST OF THE
GREENS...CLOSEST TO THE LOW TRACK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR WITH ECMWF TRENDING FURTHER WEST WITH EACH
RUN. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A QUARTER TO A HALF AN
INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS EAST OF THE
GREENS. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY
QUIET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...BTV AND RUT ARE CURRENTLY BACK TO VFR.
PBG/MPV/MSS STILL MVFR THIS MORNING...SLK STILL IFR...FOLLOWING
SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BACK TO MVFR AS NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
HEADS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. RAIN IS ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MAINLY BETWEEN
09-15Z. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME MODERATE RAIN AS HEAVIEST
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE AT SLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. MAIN IMPACT
WOULD BE TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN TAF SITES MPV/RUT, LESSER AT MSS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO.

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB.

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN.

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPH