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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS ACRS SERN ZONES AND SPREAD THEM BACK
INTO CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VLY AFT 16Z THIS MRNG AS LOW WOBBLES PER ALL
HIRES/MED RANGE MODELS. HV DROPPED ADDN/L SNOW ACCUMS OVR ERN
ZONES AS STEADY SNOW HAS HIT A WALL. WL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LKLY THAT WE
WL ONLY SEE AN ADDN`L 1-3 OVR CNTYS IN THE ADVISORY. WL RE-
EVALUATE HEADLINES LTR THIS MRNG.

PREV DISCO BLO...

330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

PATCHY SNOW OVER NE PA IS CAUSING THE VSBY AT AVP TO DROP TO IFR.
THIS COULD CONTINUE TIL 14Z.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME THIS
AFTN  WITH WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR
VSBYS 19 TO 23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW
SYR ITH BGM SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AND AVP AFTER 16Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

NW TO N WINDS AT 8 KTS INCREASING TO 10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF
THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT AND THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS ACRS SERN ZONES AND SPREAD THEM BACK
INTO CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VLY AFT 16Z THIS MRNG AS LOW WOBBLES PER ALL
HIRES/MED RANGE MODELS. HV DROPPED ADDN/L SNOW ACCUMS OVR ERN
ZONES AS STEADY SNOW HAS HIT A WALL. WL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LKLY THAT WE
WL ONLY SEE AN ADDN`L 1-3 OVR CNTYS IN THE ADVISORY. WL RE-
EVALUATE HEADLINES LTR THIS MRNG.

PREV DISCO BLO...

330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

PATCHY SNOW OVER NE PA IS CAUSING THE VSBY AT AVP TO DROP TO IFR.
THIS COULD CONTINUE TIL 14Z.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME THIS
AFTN  WITH WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR
VSBYS 19 TO 23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW
SYR ITH BGM SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AND AVP AFTER 16Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

NW TO N WINDS AT 8 KTS INCREASING TO 10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF
THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT AND THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS ACRS SERN ZONES AND SPREAD THEM BACK
INTO CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VLY AFT 16Z THIS MRNG AS LOW WOBBLES PER ALL
HIRES/MED RANGE MODELS. HV DROPPED ADDN/L SNOW ACCUMS OVR ERN
ZONES AS STEADY SNOW HAS HIT A WALL. WL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LKLY THAT WE
WL ONLY SEE AN ADDN`L 1-3 OVR CNTYS IN THE ADVISORY. WL RE-
EVALUATE HEADLINES LTR THIS MRNG.

PREV DISCO BLO...

330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

PATCHY SNOW OVER NE PA IS CAUSING THE VSBY AT AVP TO DROP TO IFR.
THIS COULD CONTINUE TIL 14Z.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME THIS
AFTN  WITH WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR
VSBYS 19 TO 23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW
SYR ITH BGM SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AND AVP AFTER 16Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

NW TO N WINDS AT 8 KTS INCREASING TO 10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF
THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT AND THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271252
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
752 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS ACRS SERN ZONES AND SPREAD THEM BACK
INTO CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VLY AFT 16Z THIS MRNG AS LOW WOBBLES PER ALL
HIRES/MED RANGE MODELS. HV DROPPED ADDN/L SNOW ACCUMS OVR ERN
ZONES AS STEADY SNOW HAS HIT A WALL. WL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LKLY THAT WE
WL ONLY SEE AN ADDN`L 1-3 OVR CNTYS IN THE ADVISORY. WL RE-
EVALUATE HEADLINES LTR THIS MRNG.

PREV DISCO BLO...

330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

PATCHY SNOW OVER NE PA IS CAUSING THE VSBY AT AVP TO DROP TO IFR.
THIS COULD CONTINUE TIL 14Z.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME THIS
AFTN  WITH WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR
VSBYS 19 TO 23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW
SYR ITH BGM SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AND AVP AFTER 16Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

NW TO N WINDS AT 8 KTS INCREASING TO 10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF
THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT AND THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 271213
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
713 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 1-3 INCH
PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER
HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271213
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
713 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 1-3 INCH
PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER
HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271213
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
713 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 1-3 INCH
PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER
HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271213
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
713 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 1-3 INCH
PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER
HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR OR
EVEN VFR A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 271156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271156
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAINING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AS SNOW SPREADS NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 12-15Z...KMPV 13-
15Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR. SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KRUT/KMPV 14Z-
22Z...KBTV/KPBG 17Z-21Z AND KSLK 18Z-23Z.

SNOW WILL LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6-12KTS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY AROUND 25KTS BY MID MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST. EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.


THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.


THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.


THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW.
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS.

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE.


THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE
ORDER OF 15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV








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000
FXUS61 KBUF 271152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...SOME IFR VSBYS TOO. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT MOST SITES BUT KROC MAY
HAVE IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
FOR ALL SITES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...SOME IFR VSBYS TOO. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT MOST SITES BUT KROC MAY
HAVE IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
FOR ALL SITES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...SOME IFR VSBYS TOO. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT MOST SITES BUT KROC MAY
HAVE IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
FOR ALL SITES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 271152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...SOME IFR VSBYS TOO. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT MOST SITES BUT KROC MAY
HAVE IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
FOR ALL SITES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH







000
FXUS61 KBGM 271145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

PATCHY SNOW OVER NE PA IS CAUSING THE VSBY AT AVP TO DROP TO IFR.
THIS COULD CONTINUE TIL 14Z.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME THIS
AFTN  WITH WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR
VSBYS 19 TO 23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW
SYR ITH BGM SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AND AVP AFTER 16Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

NW TO N WINDS AT 8 KTS INCREASING TO 10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF
THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT AND THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 271145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

PATCHY SNOW OVER NE PA IS CAUSING THE VSBY AT AVP TO DROP TO IFR.
THIS COULD CONTINUE TIL 14Z.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME THIS
AFTN  WITH WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR
VSBYS 19 TO 23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW
SYR ITH BGM SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AND AVP AFTER 16Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

NW TO N WINDS AT 8 KTS INCREASING TO 10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF
THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT AND THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE`LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 271116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 271115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
615 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH
RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z. LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271115
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
615 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH
RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z. LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
.WED NGT-THU...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 271103
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
603 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER
HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271103
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
603 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER
HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271103
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
603 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER
HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 271103
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
603 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAZARDS AND SNOW AMTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
CONDS/TRENDS. BLIZZARD CONDS...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG N-NE
WINDS...HAVE SHIFTED INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT...AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND...ALSO FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN CT E OF BRIDGEPORT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4
INCHES/HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE BANDING...WHICH IS
NOW MAINLY OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY CT AND THE FORKS OF LONG
ISLAND...AND SHOULD BE SLOW TO PULL OUT THIS MORNING WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS MENTIONED IN THE PREV DISCUSSION. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA SHOULD SEE ACCUMS CLOSE TO 2 FEET...AND POSSIBLY
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES IN SPOTS.

LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES FARTHER WEST...AND SO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
MAY DROP WARNINGS IN NYC...NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN. EVEN AFTER
SNOW ENDS...NW WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL STILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD COVER ROADS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CLEARED AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL HEADACHES.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR SN CT...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE
20S AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER
HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH WEST OF
THE HUDSON...TO 1-2 INCHES FOR NYC AND WRN LONG ISLAND/CT...TO 2-3
INCHES ERN LONG ISLAND/CT.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ006>008-
     010>012.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338-345-
     355.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 270948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 270948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 270948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY EAST
CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL BE MODERATE...EXCEPT HEAVIER IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL END
TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUE TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE STORM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WERE DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...MOST OF THE CATSKILL REGION AS WELL AS THE SARATOGA
REGION...HEADLINE EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR WESTERN GREENE COUNTY THE LOWER
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND TACONICS UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY AGAIN 100 AM
WEDNESDAY.

AS OF 445 AM EST...THE NOR`EASTER WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND...TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL PAST TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 980 MB. IT WILL LIKELY DEEPEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE BECOME "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LATER
THIS MORNING.

SNOW WAS FINALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR REGION...JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILLS
FURTHER SOUTH. EARLIER...AN IMPRESSIVE MESO-SCALE BAND WAS
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH EAST. IT FELL APART...BUT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER...BAND...STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW...WAS
ENTERING THE TACONICS FROM RENSSELAER COUNTY SOUTHWARD.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION HOW FAST WEST THIS BAND WILL GET. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS IT WON`T BE A WHOLE LOT FURTHER WEST...BUT WE STILL
FEEL CONFIDENT IT WILL WORK AT LEAST THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTO EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE MORNING DRIVE.

THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE WITH US
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES A
HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF POWDERY
NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE ORDER OF
15:1.

WE NOW PROJECT 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. STILL...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE HARD FOR CREWS TO
TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY MELTED SNOW COULD
BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE 8-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). WE ALSO INCLUDE
GREENE COUNTY DUE TO PERHAPS MORE ENHANCEMENT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
AND THE FACT THEY ALREADY HAD 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT (MUCH MORE THAN
MOST OTHER AREAS AT THAT TIME).

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 12-18 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A
BIT HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS
EXTENSIVE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM.

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ039>043-047>053-059-060-063-064-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ054-058-
     061-065-066.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV










000
FXUS61 KOKX 270944
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...AN UPDATE TO HAZARDS IS COMING SHORTLY...

...FROM PREVIOUS...
SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. FIRST LEADING INTENSE SNOW BAND IS FALLING
APART OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE BAND DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
PRESENCE OF COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS...ONE OVER UPSTATE NY AND
ANOTHER WELL OFFSHORE...MOVES WWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT/LONG
ISLAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. PER LATEST
NAM/RAP/HRRR TREND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...IT APPEARS THIS
BAND MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR FAIRFIELD/NEW HAVEN/WRN SUFFOLK
COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SEE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES.

MEANWHILE...WITH SNOW BANDS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH PAST
NYC...HAVE LOWERED AMTS A LITTLE IN NYC/WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM...WITH
TOTALS MOSTLY 14-18 INCHES...AND EVEN MORE WEST OF THE
HUDSON...WITH 10-14 INCHES JUST OUTSIDE NYC AND 6-10 INCHES FOR
THE INTERIOR. ALSO REPLACED BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AS WINDS/VSBYS THERE ARE FALLING
SHORT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTION.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE 20S
AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER
HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER A TOP TEN
SNOWFALL FOR NYC. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE
CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-068.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270944
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR`EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...AN UPDATE TO HAZARDS IS COMING SHORTLY...

...FROM PREVIOUS...
SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. FIRST LEADING INTENSE SNOW BAND IS FALLING
APART OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE BAND DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
PRESENCE OF COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS...ONE OVER UPSTATE NY AND
ANOTHER WELL OFFSHORE...MOVES WWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT/LONG
ISLAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. PER LATEST
NAM/RAP/HRRR TREND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...IT APPEARS THIS
BAND MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR FAIRFIELD/NEW HAVEN/WRN SUFFOLK
COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SEE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES.

MEANWHILE...WITH SNOW BANDS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH PAST
NYC...HAVE LOWERED AMTS A LITTLE IN NYC/WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM...WITH
TOTALS MOSTLY 14-18 INCHES...AND EVEN MORE WEST OF THE
HUDSON...WITH 10-14 INCHES JUST OUTSIDE NYC AND 6-10 INCHES FOR
THE INTERIOR. ALSO REPLACED BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AS WINDS/VSBYS THERE ARE FALLING
SHORT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTION.

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER`S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE 20S
AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING.
GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER
HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER A TOP TEN
SNOWFALL FOR NYC. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE
CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-068.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270858
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
358 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
IS DOWN TO FLURRIES. ELM NOW VFR BUT STILL COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO
MVFR CIG. BGM AND AVP BRIEFLY HAD MVFR CIGS TOO WHICH COULD OCCUR
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270858
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
358 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
IS DOWN TO FLURRIES. ELM NOW VFR BUT STILL COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO
MVFR CIG. BGM AND AVP BRIEFLY HAD MVFR CIGS TOO WHICH COULD OCCUR
AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE COLD
AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS IS
THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM
ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES. FIGURING ON 2
TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP WAYNE
EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW WILL MEAN
IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT
HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE
RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF
ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST
THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN CORTLAND-
CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-MADISON-
ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING WILL
CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE COLD
AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS IS
THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM
ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES. FIGURING ON 2
TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE ADVISORY
AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-DELAWARE-
SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP WAYNE
EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW WILL MEAN
IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT
HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE
RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF
ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST
THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN CORTLAND-
CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-MADISON-
ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING WILL
CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET SLIGHTLY
BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBUF 270828
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270828
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270828
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270828
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE 3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST
NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A
CLASSIC MILLER-B EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING
FEATURES PIVOTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL
QPF/SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP
AND HRRR ALL COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS
SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND
WEST INTO VT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE
PROGRESSES. MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF MOISTENING BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE`RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE.
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.

ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
237 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND PASS EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...AND ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. FIRST LEADING INTENSE SNOW BAND IS FALLING
APART OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE BAND DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
PRESENCE OF COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS...ONE OVER UPSTATE NY AND
ANOTHER WELL OFFSHORE...MOVES WWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT/LONG
ISLAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. PER LATEST
NAM/RAP/HRRR TREND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...IT APPEARS THIS
BAND MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR FAIRFIELD/NEW HAVEN/WRN SUFFOLK
COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SEE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES.

MEANWHILE...WITH SNOW BANDS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH PAST
NYC...HAVE LOWERED AMTS A LITTLE IN NYC/WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM...WITH
TOTALS MOSTLY 14-18 INCHES...AND EVEN MORE WEST OF THE
HUDSON...WITH 10-14 INCHES JUST OUTSIDE NYC AND 6-10 INCHES FOR
THE INTERIOR. ALSO REPLACED BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AS WINDS/VSBYS THERE ARE FALLING
SHORT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK...WITH HVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL
NORTH/WEST.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTS SLOWLY SE OF CAPE COD TODAY...THEN
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...BRINGING AND END
TO THE STORM.

TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOW PACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE CONDS TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 16 TO 22 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A NNE WIND...SURGE IS COMING IN BELOW FCST. TIDES WILL TOUCH
MODERATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND IN THE
FLANDERS/RIVERHEAD AREAS.

ADVISORY IS BEING DROPPED FOR THE HARBOR. SOUTH SHORE BAYS BEING
PLACED IN AN ADVISORY.

SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM SOUTH
OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER A TOP TEN
SNOWFALL FOR NYC. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE
CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-068.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     073-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JST
CLIMATE...TM






000
FXUS61 KOKX 270737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
237 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND PASS EAST ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...AND ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. FIRST LEADING INTENSE SNOW BAND IS FALLING
APART OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE BAND DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
PRESENCE OF COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS...ONE OVER UPSTATE NY AND
ANOTHER WELL OFFSHORE...MOVES WWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT/LONG
ISLAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. PER LATEST
NAM/RAP/HRRR TREND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...IT APPEARS THIS
BAND MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR FAIRFIELD/NEW HAVEN/WRN SUFFOLK
COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SEE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES.

MEANWHILE...WITH SNOW BANDS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH PAST
NYC...HAVE LOWERED AMTS A LITTLE IN NYC/WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM...WITH
TOTALS MOSTLY 14-18 INCHES...AND EVEN MORE WEST OF THE
HUDSON...WITH 10-14 INCHES JUST OUTSIDE NYC AND 6-10 INCHES FOR
THE INTERIOR. ALSO REPLACED BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AS WINDS/VSBYS THERE ARE FALLING
SHORT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK...WITH HVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL
NORTH/WEST.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY DRIFTS SLOWLY SE OF CAPE COD TODAY...THEN
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...BRINGING AND END
TO THE STORM.

TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOW PACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE CONDS TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 16 TO 22 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A NNE WIND...SURGE IS COMING IN BELOW FCST. TIDES WILL TOUCH
MODERATE OVER EXTREME WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND IN THE
FLANDERS/RIVERHEAD AREAS.

ADVISORY IS BEING DROPPED FOR THE HARBOR. SOUTH SHORE BAYS BEING
PLACED IN AN ADVISORY.

SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM SOUTH
OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER A TOP TEN
SNOWFALL FOR NYC. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE
CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-068.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     073-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JST
CLIMATE...TM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 270623
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL NOW TO CUT OFF...THE
SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR OFFSHORE AND THUS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. OUTER
EDGES WILL STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN EARLIER FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE CAN MEAN A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
/THAT IS...LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS/ FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM ...AS IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM GET PUMMELED EITHER WAY
REGARDLESS...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN
ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE COMING DAY...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. WAYNE-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE STILL UNDER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BUT
WITH LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP WAYNE
EARLY. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FOR NOW THE ADVISORY IS STILL IN PLACE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
REACHING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND-CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON-ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270623
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL NOW TO CUT OFF...THE
SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR OFFSHORE AND THUS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. OUTER
EDGES WILL STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN EARLIER FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE CAN MEAN A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
/THAT IS...LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS/ FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM ...AS IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM GET PUMMELED EITHER WAY
REGARDLESS...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN
ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE COMING DAY...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. WAYNE-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE STILL UNDER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BUT
WITH LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP WAYNE
EARLY. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FOR NOW THE ADVISORY IS STILL IN PLACE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
REACHING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND-CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON-ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270623
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL NOW TO CUT OFF...THE
SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR OFFSHORE AND THUS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. OUTER
EDGES WILL STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN EARLIER FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE CAN MEAN A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
/THAT IS...LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS/ FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM ...AS IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM GET PUMMELED EITHER WAY
REGARDLESS...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN
ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE COMING DAY...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. WAYNE-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE STILL UNDER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BUT
WITH LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP WAYNE
EARLY. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FOR NOW THE ADVISORY IS STILL IN PLACE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
REACHING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND-CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON-ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270623
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL NOW TO CUT OFF...THE
SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR OFFSHORE AND THUS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. OUTER
EDGES WILL STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN EARLIER FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE CAN MEAN A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
/THAT IS...LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS/ FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM ...AS IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STORM GET PUMMELED EITHER WAY
REGARDLESS...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH AN
ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE COMING DAY...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. WAYNE-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE STILL UNDER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BUT
WITH LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP WAYNE
EARLY. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW
CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FOR NOW THE ADVISORY IS STILL IN PLACE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
REACHING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND-CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON-ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
A COLD WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR IS KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OUT OF PIKE/SULLIVAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE SNOW IN THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER
TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH SNOW TO H20
RATIO. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY,
SO WE MAY STILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

NO CHANGES TO FLAGS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
A COLD WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR IS KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OUT OF PIKE/SULLIVAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE SNOW IN THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER
TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH SNOW TO H20
RATIO. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY,
SO WE MAY STILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

NO CHANGES TO FLAGS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
A COLD WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR IS KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OUT OF PIKE/SULLIVAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE SNOW IN THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER
TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH SNOW TO H20
RATIO. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY,
SO WE MAY STILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

NO CHANGES TO FLAGS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270556
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
A COLD WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR IS KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OUT OF PIKE/SULLIVAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE SNOW IN THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER
TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH SNOW TO H20
RATIO. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY,
SO WE MAY STILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

NO CHANGES TO FLAGS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW OVER ELM
GIVING THEM MVFR VSBYS AND AT TIMES IFR VSBYS EARLY. THIS BAND
WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND CONDITIONS WILL RISE TO VFR.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME WITH
WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS 19 TO
23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW SYR ITH BGM
SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AVP AFTER 12Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

N TO NE WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO NW TO N AT
10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ040-
     072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-
     057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
     016-022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBTV 270545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.

HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 270543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER
OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME OF EASTERN NEW YORK. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS WORKING THROUGH
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND INTO DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT
OVER BERKSHIRE WAS WEAKENING SOME BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION WAS STILL
LOOK PRETTY HEALTHY.

WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...ONLY A SMATTERING OF LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT SNOW TAKING
PLACE WITH MANY AREAS DRY.

IT WAS VERY COLD WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS...BUT THE WIND WAS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY NOT DROP MUCH IF AT ALL FURTHER DOWN
OVERNIGHT.

GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STORM TRACKING A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH NORTHEAST). THE
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. SURFACE WINDS WERE NNE AT BOTH NANTUCKET AND
PROVINCETOWN CAPE COD. IT LOOKS LIKELY THIS STORM WILL PASS TO THE
EAST OF CAPE COD. A 985 MB LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WHICH IS NORMALLY WELL TO FAR EAST TO BRING MOST
OF OUR AREA TO BRING HEAVY SNOW.

NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WE WANT TO EXAMINE
ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLE SALE CHANGES ON ANY OF
OUR HEADLINES...INCLUDING THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.


ONLY LIKELIHOOD THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO THE NO
SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...BUT WAITING
FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD TOMORROW COULD STILL
THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR SOME VERY DRY
SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT LESS. SURFACE
ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST AND THE SURFACE
LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE FALLS EAST...RATHER
THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT
OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED
FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV










000
FXUS61 KALY 270543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1230 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  REMAINDER
OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOME OF EASTERN NEW YORK. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

AS OF 1230 AM EST...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WAS WORKING THROUGH
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND INTO DUTCHESS COUNTY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT
OVER BERKSHIRE WAS WEAKENING SOME BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION WAS STILL
LOOK PRETTY HEALTHY.

WE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR LITCHFIELD AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.

ELSEWHERE...ONLY A SMATTERING OF LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT SNOW TAKING
PLACE WITH MANY AREAS DRY.

IT WAS VERY COLD WITH A BITING NORTH WIND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE TEENS...BUT THE WIND WAS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY NOT DROP MUCH IF AT ALL FURTHER DOWN
OVERNIGHT.

GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STORM TRACKING A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST (AS OPPOSED TO NORTH NORTHEAST). THE
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS JUST TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. SURFACE WINDS WERE NNE AT BOTH NANTUCKET AND
PROVINCETOWN CAPE COD. IT LOOKS LIKELY THIS STORM WILL PASS TO THE
EAST OF CAPE COD. A 985 MB LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST...WHICH IS NORMALLY WELL TO FAR EAST TO BRING MOST
OF OUR AREA TO BRING HEAVY SNOW.

NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WE WANT TO EXAMINE
ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY WHOLE SALE CHANGES ON ANY OF
OUR HEADLINES...INCLUDING THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD
COUNTY.


ONLY LIKELIHOOD THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO THE NO
SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON ALL THE
NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...BUT WAITING
FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD TOMORROW COULD STILL
THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR SOME VERY DRY
SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT LESS. SURFACE
ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST AND THE SURFACE
LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE FALLS EAST...RATHER
THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT
OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED
FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL
RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 270528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
TAF SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 270528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1228 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS A BAND OF
RATHER INTENSE SNOW TAKES ITS TIME TO PIVOT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
TAF SITES. THIS BAND SHOULD REACH KPOU FIRST AND THEN KPSF AROUND 08Z.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THIS BAND WILL EVER MAKE IT TO KALB
AND KGFL SO WILL LEAVE MVFR IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE TWO SITES AND
LOWERING TO IFR AFT 08Z AT KPSF AND KPOU.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING MUCH
OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH
DUE TO FALLING SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z-22Z TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO
VFR TUESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/11
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH PATCHY MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS
WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT MAINLY IN BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS
AREA WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM BEING
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...AND A
WEAK WAVE EXPANDING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGES
OF THIS FAVORED ZONE...FROM BUFFALO TO JAMESTOWN AND FROM ROCHESTER
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA
REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 270501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH PATCHY MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS
WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT MAINLY IN BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS
AREA WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM BEING
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...AND A
WEAK WAVE EXPANDING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGES
OF THIS FAVORED ZONE...FROM BUFFALO TO JAMESTOWN AND FROM ROCHESTER
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA
REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 270329
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATES WAS TO TRIM BACK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BASED ON RADAR...HI-
RES MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WESTERN EXTENT OF
HEAVIER AND MOST PERSISTENT BANDING MAY STALL ALONG THE NYC AND
HUDSON RIVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS BAND. SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER BANDING SET-UP
AFTER 06Z...AND AT THAT TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
BE DROPPED TO THE WEST OF THAT BOUNDARY.

IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...WITH A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...989 LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE
DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO
AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK. BANDS OF HEAVY
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NW INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING UP. AS LARGER BANDS
SOLIDIFY OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR UNDER THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS LI AND
NYC WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MAX GUSTS 40
TO 45 MPH BEING MEASURED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND CT...AND NEAR 40
MPH TO THE CITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 16 TO 22 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE TWIN
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND/NYC.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NYC/NJ COAST ADJACENT TO
NY HARBOR...AND THE CT COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
  ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN
FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO STORM TIDE AND 7 TO
12 FT WAVES WEST AND 10 TO 15 FT EAST. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT
STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-
     108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW/NV
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270329
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATES WAS TO TRIM BACK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ABOUT 4 TO 6 INCHES WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER BASED ON RADAR...HI-
RES MODEL RUNS AND 00Z NAM. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WESTERN EXTENT OF
HEAVIER AND MOST PERSISTENT BANDING MAY STALL ALONG THE NYC AND
HUDSON RIVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS BAND. SHOULD
HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER BANDING SET-UP
AFTER 06Z...AND AT THAT TIME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
BE DROPPED TO THE WEST OF THAT BOUNDARY.

IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...WITH A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...989 LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE
DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO
AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK. BANDS OF HEAVY
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NW INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING UP. AS LARGER BANDS
SOLIDIFY OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR UNDER THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS LI AND
NYC WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MAX GUSTS 40
TO 45 MPH BEING MEASURED ACROSS EASTERN LI AND CT...AND NEAR 40
MPH TO THE CITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 16 TO 22 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE TWIN
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND/NYC.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NYC/NJ COAST ADJACENT TO
NY HARBOR...AND THE CT COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
  ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN
FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO STORM TIDE AND 7 TO
12 FT WAVES WEST AND 10 TO 15 FT EAST. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT
STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-
     178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-
     108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW/NV
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 270306
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR IS KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OUT OF PIKE/SULLIVAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE SNOW IN THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER
TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH SNOW TO H20
RATIO. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY,
SO WE MAY STILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

NO CHANGES TO FLAGS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY LGT SNOWS OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MVES INTO THE AREA. IN GNRL...XPCT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INT HE LGT SNOW. LATE TNGT AND AFT
DAYBRK TUE...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
CSTL STORM MAY PUSH BACK WWRD INTO THE AREA AND GIVE A PD OF LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH OCNL IFR CONDS PSBL. WITH THE DEEPENING
LOW...WINDS WILL TEND TO INCRS THRU THE PD OUT OF THE
NORTH...GUSTING WELL ABV 20 KTS ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ015-016-
     022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 270306
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR IS KEEPING THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OUT OF PIKE/SULLIVAN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO CONFIDENCE IN INTENSE SNOW IN THE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER
TURNED OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A HIGH SNOW TO H20
RATIO. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY,
SO WE MAY STILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.

NO CHANGES TO FLAGS AT THIS TIME. WE HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY LGT SNOWS OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MVES INTO THE AREA. IN GNRL...XPCT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INT HE LGT SNOW. LATE TNGT AND AFT
DAYBRK TUE...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
CSTL STORM MAY PUSH BACK WWRD INTO THE AREA AND GIVE A PD OF LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH OCNL IFR CONDS PSBL. WITH THE DEEPENING
LOW...WINDS WILL TEND TO INCRS THRU THE PD OUT OF THE
NORTH...GUSTING WELL ABV 20 KTS ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ015-016-
     022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF







000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 270236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
     A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED...AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM RACK...
AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY TO JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF
LEADING UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION
OF SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS COUNTY...
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN VT...AND
ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
AROUND 14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE STORM
TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 270137
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
837 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE...WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...992 LOW PRESSURE (4 MB DEEPER IN THE LAST 3
HRS...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK
BY DAYBREAK. RADAR BLOSSOMING WITH BANDS OF SNOWFALL ADVECTING NW
INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING
UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS LARGE BANDS SOLIDIFY
OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER
THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION.

SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NYC AND
WESTERN LI WITH EARLIER CONVERGENCE BAND DROPPING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...STILL SOME MODEL VARIANCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION BEHAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH NAM SEEMING LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST BANDING WILL GET.

THE HUDSON RIVER DOWN TO NYC/NJ METRO SEEMS LIKES THE FAVORED
WESTERN BOUNDARY OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
STRENGTH AND EXPANSE OF DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND NEGATIVE TILTING OF
UPPER ENERGY...AND WCB CONVECTION TO E OF LOW...NOT READY TO MAKE
ANY WHOLESALE CHANGE TO SNOWFALL FORECAST.

SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AFTER 06Z OR SO WHERE THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF BANDING WILL DEVELOP. AND WITH THESE MILLER B TYPE
SYSTEMS...THEY TRADITIONALLY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP TO WEST
OF THE MAIN BANDING. SO AT THAT POINT WILL HAVE BETTER EVIDENCE ON
REFINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNDER BAND LOCATIONS AND DECREASING SNOW
AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40-50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS OF
60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON OVERNIGHT.
2-4 INCH AN HOUR RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WINDS BACKING TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
30-40KT..LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY COULD BE REDUCED TO 1/4SM AT TIMES
THROUGH 01-02Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 01-02Z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE TWIN
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND/NYC.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NYC/NJ COAST ADJACENT TO
NY HARBOR...AND THE CT COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
  ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN
FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO STORM TIDE AND 7 TO
12 FT WAVES WEST AND 10 TO 15 FT EAST. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT
STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KOKX 270137
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
837 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. IMPRESSIVE LIFT VIA CLOUD TOP COOLING
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF PIVOTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE...WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC...SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...992 LOW PRESSURE (4 MB DEEPER IN THE LAST 3
HRS...ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND SLOWLY TRACK NE/N TO AROUND THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK
BY DAYBREAK. RADAR BLOSSOMING WITH BANDS OF SNOWFALL ADVECTING NW
INTO LI/CT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL RATES PICKING
UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. AS LARGE BANDS SOLIDIFY
OVERNIGHT...RATES SHOULD PICK UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER
THOSE BANDS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION.

SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NYC AND
WESTERN LI WITH EARLIER CONVERGENCE BAND DROPPING 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...STILL SOME MODEL VARIANCE ON EXACTLY HOW THE
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION BEHAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH NAM SEEMING LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST BANDING WILL GET.

THE HUDSON RIVER DOWN TO NYC/NJ METRO SEEMS LIKES THE FAVORED
WESTERN BOUNDARY OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE
STRENGTH AND EXPANSE OF DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND NEGATIVE TILTING OF
UPPER ENERGY...AND WCB CONVECTION TO E OF LOW...NOT READY TO MAKE
ANY WHOLESALE CHANGE TO SNOWFALL FORECAST.

SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA AFTER 06Z OR SO WHERE THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF BANDING WILL DEVELOP. AND WITH THESE MILLER B TYPE
SYSTEMS...THEY TRADITIONALLY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP TO WEST
OF THE MAIN BANDING. SO AT THAT POINT WILL HAVE BETTER EVIDENCE ON
REFINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UNDER BAND LOCATIONS AND DECREASING SNOW
AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40-50 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS OF
60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS DEVELOPING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON OVERNIGHT.
2-4 INCH AN HOUR RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WINDS BACKING TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
30-40KT..LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY COULD BE REDUCED TO 1/4SM AT TIMES
THROUGH 01-02Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 04Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS 1000-1500FT COULD PREVAIL THRU 01-02Z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT. SEAS BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE TWIN
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND/NYC.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NYC/NJ COAST ADJACENT TO
NY HARBOR...AND THE CT COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE THE
  ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 1/2 TO 3 FT ABOVE
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...WITH A WORST CASE OF 3 1/2 FT.

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN
FACING BARRIER BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO STORM TIDE AND 7 TO
12 FT WAVES WEST AND 10 TO 15 FT EAST. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT
STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 270011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 262354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT
HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA REMAIN
SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH
ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES
FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 262354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT
HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA REMAIN
SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH
ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES
FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 262354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT
HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA REMAIN
SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH
ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES
FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 262354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT
HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA REMAIN
SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH
ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES
FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 262351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 262351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 631 PM EST MONDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS EVENING WITH WELL-
DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. IT APPEARS STRONG
MID- UPPER VORT/PV MAX IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS AT
2330Z...AND AS DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES OVER
LOW CENTER...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE COMMENCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 06Z WITH
DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD
DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL SEE SOME
WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY APPROACHING
20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 262344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK
AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW JUST PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REGION...WITH ANY MODERATE OR HEAVIER SNOW
STILL QUITE A DISTANCE UPSTREAM. THE EVENTUAL NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS
COULD STILL MAKE UP FOR ANY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION. THE ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY
BE TELLING WHERE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS
SETTING UP...WITH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT JUST UNDER THE ENHANCED
CLOUD TOPS...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO
WORD LIGHT SNOW AND ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ONCE THE HEAVIER STEADIER SNOW MOVES
IN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

SLIGHTLY GREATER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING
POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS...MAINLY
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME
WIND.

THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY...AND MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO KALB/KPSF AND KPOU...AND MUCH MORE LIMITED AT KGFL.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT
KPOU AND KPSF. MEANWHILE...AT KGFL...CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY...BANDS OF SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
ADVANCE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. IT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK AT KALB AND ESPECIALLY KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO
MVFR/IFR AS THE BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH.

AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH
SOME EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING INTO TUE
EVENING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...BOTH DUE TO FALLING
SNOW...AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY FROM THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB/KPSF AND KPOU.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBGM 262343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAINLY LGT SNOWS OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MVES INTO THE AREA. IN GNRL...XPCT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INT HE LGT SNOW. LATE TNGT AND AFT
DAYBRK TUE...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
CSTL STORM MAY PUSH BACK WWRD INTO THE AREA AND GIVE A PD OF LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH OCNL IFR CONDS PSBL. WITH THE DEEPENING
LOW...WINDS WILL TEND TO INCRS THRU THE PD OUT OF THE
NORTH...GUSTING WELL ABV 20 KTS ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ015-016-
     022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262343
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAINLY LGT SNOWS OVER THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MVES INTO THE AREA. IN GNRL...XPCT
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS INT HE LGT SNOW. LATE TNGT AND AFT
DAYBRK TUE...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
CSTL STORM MAY PUSH BACK WWRD INTO THE AREA AND GIVE A PD OF LWR
CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH OCNL IFR CONDS PSBL. WITH THE DEEPENING
LOW...WINDS WILL TEND TO INCRS THRU THE PD OUT OF THE
NORTH...GUSTING WELL ABV 20 KTS ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...


TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ015-016-
     022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...DGM/PVF






000
FXUS61 KALY 262139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG
WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS BEEN UPDATED. A GRAPHIC OF THIS CAN BE FOUND ON
OUR WEBSITE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER SNOWFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS
DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WHILE KPOU/KPSF HAVE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AT KPOU WIDESPREAD IFR OR LESS
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR AFTER 27/01Z...03Z AT KPSF...05Z AT
KALB...AND 08Z AT KGFL. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY...
MAINLY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW.

SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THEN 8 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS AT
KPSF/KPOU. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV







000
FXUS61 KALY 262139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
INTO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER TONIGHT...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SNOW
WILL END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL...AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING FROM SOME STRONG
WINDS.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. FORECAST STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS BEEN UPDATED. A GRAPHIC OF THIS CAN BE FOUND ON
OUR WEBSITE. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER SNOWFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS WAS
DONE TO ACCOUNT FOR BANDING POTENTIAL...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STORM SEEING MUCH LESS SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS EMERGED EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH
THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS BEING INDICATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL THROUGH HAS ALREADY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND THE
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE ALSO NOTED...SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STORM
TRACK...AND RESULTING QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND THE MOST QPF OF ALL THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WITH A NORTHWARD JOG DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OTHER GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS/CMC
INDICATING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION...WITH RESULTING LESS QPF FOR
OUR AREA. SREF PLUMES FOR ALB INDICATING A WIDE RANGE OF QPF LEADING
UP TO THE STORM DESPITE BEING CLOSE IN TIME TO INITIATION OF
SNOWFALL. MULTI-MEMBER PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FROM WPC
SHOWS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL...WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE
RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO 24 INCHES IN
LITCHFIELD CT.

SINCE THE STORM IS STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES...WE ARE TAKING A
BLENDED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST...WHILE MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE REALIZE THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER SNOWFALL...THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY FROM CLOSE TO ALBANY AND FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. WE ARE
NOW INDICATING A LARGER AREA OF 18-24 INCHES FROM DUTCHESS
COUNTY...TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN WINDHAM IN
VT...AND ALL OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOWFALL IN THE 18-30+ INCH RANGE
EXPECTED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT WHERE THE GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING IS ANTICIPATED. WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AROUND
14 OR 15:1.

CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES STRONG AND STEEPLY SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESULT IN INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SURFACE/700 MB LOW CENTER. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
EXACT LOCATIONS...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR BANDING WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
THE STORM TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER BANDING/SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL
RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE BANDS COULD APPROACH 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD...STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME LINGERING
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WED
NT. GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION...ANY PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
THEREFORE WENT BELOW A BLEND OF ALL MODELS FOR TEMPS...WITH MOST
MINS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEARLY SAME AS AMBIENT TEMPS. SOME CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ALSO...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...FOR THE LATE
THU/EARLY FRI...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STORM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...

THU-FRI...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THAT IT MAY REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THU NT OR FRI.
THIS MAY ALLOW SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO BECOME
INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER
N AND W...MAINLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. THE SNOW COULD LINGER INTO
FRI AM...AS ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
NW AND POSSIBLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS ON THU...AND 20S TO LOWER 30S ON FRI...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS
MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT NT...GENERALLY FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE
QUITE BREEZY FRI NT/EARLY SAT...AND WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES COULD APPROACH OR SURPASS
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
DAY AND NIGHT PERIODS. FRI AND SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUN-MON...SOME LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PHASING BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURS...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND THEN POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST ANOTHER THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION...ESP SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC
POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS S/E AREAS...FOR LATE SUN INTO MON.
OTHERWISE...REMAINING QUITE COLD...WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY ONLY
REACHING THE TEENS ON SUN...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON MON.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SUN NT SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO IN MOST
AREAS...PERHAPS WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DEPENDING ON IF CLOUDS WITH ANY COASTAL STORM SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAJOR NOR`EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGFL/KALB WELL INTO THIS
EVENING...WHILE KPOU/KPSF HAVE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT
SNOW WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SPREADING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. AT KPOU WIDESPREAD IFR OR LESS
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND OR AFTER 27/01Z...03Z AT KPSF...05Z AT
KALB...AND 08Z AT KGFL. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY...
MAINLY VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW.

SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...THEN 8 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS AT
KPSF/KPOU. ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHSN...SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
     040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 262132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE
WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD.

THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU
THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4
INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT **

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LIFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM S TO N THRU 00Z.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON BY LATE THIS
EVENING. 1-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 00Z...THEN 2-4 INCH AN HOUR
RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

NE WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS 25-30KT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
25-40KT...LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS.

MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY BELOW FL180. MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN
SFC-FL390 WITH LOCAL SEVERE POSSIBLE FL200-310. REFER TO ZNY MIS AND
SIGMET VICTOR FOR MORE INFORMATION.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH
RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NE-N WINDS G35-50 KT.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NY HARBOR...AND THE CT
COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURGE IS IN HOW QUICKLY WINDS TURN FROM
THE NE TO N. AN EARLIER VEERING OF WINDS TO THE N AHEAD OF HIGH
TIDE TYPICALLY REDUCES SURGE IN OUR REGION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 2 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 3 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE 3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE IS POSSIBLE
AS WATER GETS PILED UP AROUND THE FORKS.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE.

BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN FACING BARRIER
BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO 7 TO 12 FT WAVES AND THE HIGH STORM
TIDE. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE
WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD.

THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU
THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4
INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT **

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LIFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM S TO N THRU 00Z.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON BY LATE THIS
EVENING. 1-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 00Z...THEN 2-4 INCH AN HOUR
RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

NE WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS 25-30KT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
25-40KT...LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS.

MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY BELOW FL180. MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN
SFC-FL390 WITH LOCAL SEVERE POSSIBLE FL200-310. REFER TO ZNY MIS AND
SIGMET VICTOR FOR MORE INFORMATION.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH
RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NE-N WINDS G35-50 KT.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NY HARBOR...AND THE CT
COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURGE IS IN HOW QUICKLY WINDS TURN FROM
THE NE TO N. AN EARLIER VEERING OF WINDS TO THE N AHEAD OF HIGH
TIDE TYPICALLY REDUCES SURGE IN OUR REGION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 2 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 3 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE 3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE IS POSSIBLE
AS WATER GETS PILED UP AROUND THE FORKS.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE.

BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN FACING BARRIER
BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO 7 TO 12 FT WAVES AND THE HIGH STORM
TIDE. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE
WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD.

THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU
THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4
INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT **

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LIFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM S TO N THRU 00Z.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON BY LATE THIS
EVENING. 1-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 00Z...THEN 2-4 INCH AN HOUR
RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

NE WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS 25-30KT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
25-40KT...LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS.

MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY BELOW FL180. MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN
SFC-FL390 WITH LOCAL SEVERE POSSIBLE FL200-310. REFER TO ZNY MIS AND
SIGMET VICTOR FOR MORE INFORMATION.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH
RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NE-N WINDS G35-50 KT.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NY HARBOR...AND THE CT
COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURGE IS IN HOW QUICKLY WINDS TURN FROM
THE NE TO N. AN EARLIER VEERING OF WINDS TO THE N AHEAD OF HIGH
TIDE TYPICALLY REDUCES SURGE IN OUR REGION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 2 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 3 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE 3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE IS POSSIBLE
AS WATER GETS PILED UP AROUND THE FORKS.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE.

BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN FACING BARRIER
BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO 7 TO 12 FT WAVES AND THE HIGH STORM
TIDE. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 262132
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT THE REGION THRU TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL US TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THEN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
997 LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE DELMARVA AT 4 PM PER MSAS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE
WRN ATLC. THE RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATED BANDING OVER LI...WITH
DEVELOPING PCPN S OF LI FLOWING NWD.

THE END RESULT IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THRU
THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP FROM AROUND 1 INCH PER HR INTO THE 2-4
INCH PER HR RANGE BY 10PM OR SO. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION.

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING
WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME
NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL
WRT WINDS.

THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE
DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE
STORM.

DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY.

THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST
NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES
2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WRT TEMPS...THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP THE PASSAGE OF A
CSTL FRONT ON LI. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MET BRINGS TEMPS UP TO 41
DEGREES AT KFOK TNGT. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC ATTM WITH SUSTAINED
30KT NLY WINDS IN THE SAME GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS BLW
GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENERAL H5 PATTERN OF RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. VORTEX DEVELOPS OVER HUDSON
BAY LATE THIS WEEK WITH COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONLY TIME PERIODS OF CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO PCPN ARE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MON...ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THU NIGHT/FRI ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

AS FOR MON...THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE H5 FLOW COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND IS TRACKING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EC BEING FLATTER
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT EWD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OUT TO SEA.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WED NIGHT DUE TO A DEEP SNOWPACK
ON THE GROUND AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRES BUILDING OHD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AMBIENT AIR TEMPS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY AND TEENS AT
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WED NIGHT WHEN THEY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND THU/FRI WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND LOWER
TO MID 30S RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT **

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LIFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM S TO N THRU 00Z.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJFK/KLGA/KISP/KGON BY LATE THIS
EVENING. 1-3" OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 00Z...THEN 2-4 INCH AN HOUR
RATES DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

NE WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS 25-30KT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BACK TO THE NNE LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
25-40KT...LOWEST FAR W TERMINALS AND STRONGEST FAR E TERMINALS.

MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY BELOW FL180. MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN
SFC-FL390 WITH LOCAL SEVERE POSSIBLE FL200-310. REFER TO ZNY MIS AND
SIGMET VICTOR FOR MORE INFORMATION.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH
RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR IN SNOW
BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. AFTER
00Z...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. NE-N WINDS G35-50 KT.
.LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE COND TNGT AND TUE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TUE NGT.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVSY ON WED AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OHD AND THEN
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS RETURN FRI INTO SAT AS A CLIPPER LOW INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND
WESTERN NY COAST WITHIN THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NY HARBOR...AND THE CT
COASTS.

THE NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
THERE`S THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION.

THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SURGE IS IN HOW QUICKLY WINDS TURN FROM
THE NE TO N. AN EARLIER VEERING OF WINDS TO THE N AHEAD OF HIGH
TIDE TYPICALLY REDUCES SURGE IN OUR REGION.

THE MOST LIKELY SURGE FOR COASTAL AREAS IS:

- WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND (NY ZONES)...3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 1/2 FT.

- LONG ISLAND SOUND CT COAST...2 TO 2 1/2 FT OF SURGE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 3 FT.

- THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE 3 TO 4 FT OF SURGE IS POSSIBLE
AS WATER GETS PILED UP AROUND THE FORKS.

- NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE.

BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OCEAN FACING BARRIER
BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND DUE TO 7 TO 12 FT WAVES AND THE HIGH STORM
TIDE. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

HIGH WAVES AND HIGH STORM TIDE WILL ALSO CAUSE BEACH EROSION ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND ALONG THE TWIN
FORKS. A FEW EXPOSED WATERFRONT STRUCTURES MAY BE DAMAGED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ072-074.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345-353-
     355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MMD
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...JMC/24
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262127
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
427 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
425 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A LAST SECOND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL SO TIER AND FINGER LAKES. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS IN THIS AREA, AND HRRR
HOLDS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEW ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW
PROJECTIONS ARE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THIS REGION.

330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ015-016-
     022>024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...DJP/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 262100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
HEADLINES:
*A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
 INCLUDING ORANGE...RUTLAND...WINDSOR. THE WARNING IS FOR 8-14
 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
*A WINTER STORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
 VERMONT INCLUDING ESSEX...CALEDONIA...WASHINGTON...ADDISON. THE
 ADVISORY IS FOR 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW  AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOPING
HOWEVER THOSE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING NEAR 10PM AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG FRONTOGENIES IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS TO NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 30KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER VERMONT AND OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA BETWEEN -15 AND
-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FALLING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THROUGHOUT VERMONT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST
THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION.
THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF
QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF
RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY
A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 262100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTH OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...
HEADLINES:
*A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT
 INCLUDING ORANGE...RUTLAND...WINDSOR. THE WARNING IS FOR 8-14
 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
*A WINTER STORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
 VERMONT INCLUDING ESSEX...CALEDONIA...WASHINGTON...ADDISON. THE
 ADVISORY IS FOR 4-8 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW  AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK OFF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO FIRE UP.
COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOPING
HOWEVER THOSE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING NEAR 10PM AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG FRONTOGENIES IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EXPECT THE HEAVIEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS TO NOT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10-20KT
RANGE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 30KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER VERMONT AND OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND ZERO DEGREES. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE APPROACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA BETWEEN -15 AND
-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL STILL
CONTINUE TO BE FALLING AS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY JOG TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THROUGHOUT VERMONT. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL
SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST
THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION.
THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER
TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF
QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF
RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY
A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW
SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT 850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN
VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 262045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THIS
LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY BRINGING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY REACH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH LATER
TODAY IT WILL DIG UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSH THAT HIGH TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
TOUGH OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT TODAY AHEAD OF THIS LOW
AS IT APPROACHES THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT. TODAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AS WELL TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SUNSHINE COULD HANG ON FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA. EARLY MORNING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...EVEN AROUND NEGATIVE TWENTY IN THE DACKS...WILL
WARM INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST MONDAY...TONIGHT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE BENCHMARK OFF
CAPE COD. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF IT. AFTER MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR VERMONT ZONES. NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CUT OFF VERY NEAR TO THE SURFACE LOW CENTER.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR
AND ORANGE GOES INTO EFFECT AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY ADVISORY ONE TIER
OF COUNTIES IN FROM THERE AT
03Z...ADDISON...WASHINGTON...CALEDONIA AND ESSEX VERMONT. WITH
COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...WILL BE TOUGH FOR SNOW TO
PROGRESS TO QUICKLY INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. UP TO ABOUT THREE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNRISE.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY LOW WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY WOBBLE TO THE
NORTHEAST...NOT MAKING TOO MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT.
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND OF COURSE ACROSS
THE REST OF NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD...AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR ADVISORY AREA...AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IN OUR WARNING AREA DURING
THAT SAME TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
BAND...DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THAT MAY BE. BEST
FRONTOGENESIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR THIS EVENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THIS COASTAL LOW...GUSTING TO 30
MPH AT TIMES IN OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE. SNOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS LOW MOVES AWAY. MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOULD BE ENDING ACROSS OUR AREA BY ABOUT 1AM WHEN THE HEADLINES
EXPIRE. FEEL THAT BY THEN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL HAVE 3 TO 7
INCHES OF SNOW...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA. 1 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY
OR WARNING. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...PERHAPS A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
MONDAY`S.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 08Z
TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 08Z-10Z TUESDAY. KMSS WILL LIKELY NOT
SEE ANY SNOW THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP AT
KSLK BY 16Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBGM 262032
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262032
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262032
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 262032
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA, AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MALL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WILL BECOME A POWERFUL NOR EASTER AND CREATE MANY
HAZARDOUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER
THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW
HAVE REACHED PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE CWA. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RANGE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPS MAY INCREASE A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

THIS EVENING THE CLIPPER THAT HAVE BROUGHT THE CWA SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER AND CREATE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS
NOR`EASTER WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FOLLOWING SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM EST UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE CLIPPER WILL TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER AND CREATE AN ALMOST STAND STILL FOR MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO START
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON TUESDAY. WE CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE FAR OUTER EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT BEING SAID... THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES
WITH HOW MUCH SNOWFALL WILL FALL IN OUR CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA FOR
SULLIVAN AND PIKE COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST. ALSO... WITH EACH NEW
GUIDANCE RUN HINTING AT THAT EDGE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY
EAST... WE MAY REACH ADVISORY AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THOSE
TWO COUNTIES. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM TO KNOW WHERE EXACTLY THE CUTOFF OF WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE... THUS KEPT PREVIOUS WARNING/ADVISORY LOCATIONS THE SAME.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MODIFIED JUST SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CWA ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS AND THE POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION. ATTM... KEPT TEN TO
FOURTEEN INCHES TOTAL OVER THESE REGIONS. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND CREATE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

TEMPS AFTER THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL BE VERY COLD FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 262025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 262025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 262025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 262025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 262023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 262023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY IN NEW YORK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR EASTER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900 AM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTH
INTO NY THIS MORNING AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES EAST. VERY DRY AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA... THUS IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR SHOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE NORTH. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ALL NECESSARY CHANGES WILL
BE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR NOW... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HOLDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO
FIGHT VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK...FEEDING IN FROM ARCTIC HIGH IN QUEBEC
/TEMPERATURES THERE ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS
MORNING/. GRIDS TWEAKED FOR DETAILS BUT OVERALL ON TRACK WITH JUST
AN INCH OR SO A DRY FLUFF THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FOCUS ON THE
FINGER LAKES REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUE CONTINUES
TO BE NOR EASTER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SEE BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS CLIPPER REACHING COAST TONIGHT AND UNDERGOING
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS INTO A STRONG NOR EASTER...MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OF COURSE THE LARGER PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SKIM SOME
OF OUR AREA. WINTER STORM WARNING HOISTED FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-DELAWARE-OTSEGO.

IN THE MEANTIME...AT 415 AM...THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES...WITH SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW
NOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND EDGING NORTHWARD...JUST REACHING AVOCA
IN THE PAST HOUR AS WELL AS WELLSVILLE-OLEAN IN WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NY. IT IS RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES SO. EXPECTING
1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT HEADS TO THE
COAST THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO COOPERSTOWN
LINE DUE TO EASTERLY FEED OF VERY DRY AIR AROUND ARCTIC HIGH IN
QUEBEC. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEFORMATION ZONE
FORMING ON WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER CIRCULATION...EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF. AMOUNTS
THERE TODAY INTO EVENING MAY BE MORE LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES /STEUBEN-
YATES- SENECA/...NOT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS
CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...SO THE
SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...PRONE TO SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING AS
WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND EASTERN JOG TO THE TRACK IS NOTED IN
MODELS FOR THE NOR EASTER. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT...AND
REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION...YET ALSO HAS DROPPED OFF
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS
DESPITE THIS STORM BEING ALMOST UPON US. STICKING POINT SEEMS TO
BE HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF...AND THUS WHEN THAT
UPPER LOW CAN PULL IN THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THE
EARLIER THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER OUR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN
POCONOS-CATSKILLS.

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DESPITE LOWER EXPECTED
SNOW TOTALS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTIES FOR 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. REPLACED REMAINDER OF WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FOR BOTH THE
WARNING AND ADVISORY...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES. THOUGH THE WARNING/ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 1 PM TODAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAIN IMPACT
TIME WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BOTH IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL
RATES AND INCREASING WINDS CAUSING SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING OF THE
DRY FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY-WARNING
COUNTIES...TO AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING
AND ESPECIALLY THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE TO UTICA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH
WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO BLOWING DRIFTING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TUESDAY WHICH WILL CHANGE
THE ORIENTATION OF DRIFTING SNOW ON ROADWAYS.

STORM PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCLUDING SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION...WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO PERSIST FOR A TIME...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

HIGHS MAINLY UPPER TEENS-MID 20S TUESDAY...AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW
WIND CHILL TO EVENTUALLY REACH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY IN NEW YORK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR EASTER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900 AM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTH
INTO NY THIS MORNING AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES EAST. VERY DRY AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA... THUS IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR SHOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE NORTH. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ALL NECESSARY CHANGES WILL
BE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR NOW... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HOLDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO
FIGHT VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK...FEEDING IN FROM ARCTIC HIGH IN QUEBEC
/TEMPERATURES THERE ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS
MORNING/. GRIDS TWEAKED FOR DETAILS BUT OVERALL ON TRACK WITH JUST
AN INCH OR SO A DRY FLUFF THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FOCUS ON THE
FINGER LAKES REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUE CONTINUES
TO BE NOR EASTER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SEE BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS CLIPPER REACHING COAST TONIGHT AND UNDERGOING
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS INTO A STRONG NOR EASTER...MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OF COURSE THE LARGER PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SKIM SOME
OF OUR AREA. WINTER STORM WARNING HOISTED FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-DELAWARE-OTSEGO.

IN THE MEANTIME...AT 415 AM...THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES...WITH SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW
NOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND EDGING NORTHWARD...JUST REACHING AVOCA
IN THE PAST HOUR AS WELL AS WELLSVILLE-OLEAN IN WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NY. IT IS RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES SO. EXPECTING
1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT HEADS TO THE
COAST THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO COOPERSTOWN
LINE DUE TO EASTERLY FEED OF VERY DRY AIR AROUND ARCTIC HIGH IN
QUEBEC. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEFORMATION ZONE
FORMING ON WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER CIRCULATION...EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF. AMOUNTS
THERE TODAY INTO EVENING MAY BE MORE LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES /STEUBEN-
YATES- SENECA/...NOT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS
CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...SO THE
SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...PRONE TO SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING AS
WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND EASTERN JOG TO THE TRACK IS NOTED IN
MODELS FOR THE NOR EASTER. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT...AND
REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION...YET ALSO HAS DROPPED OFF
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS
DESPITE THIS STORM BEING ALMOST UPON US. STICKING POINT SEEMS TO
BE HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF...AND THUS WHEN THAT
UPPER LOW CAN PULL IN THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THE
EARLIER THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER OUR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN
POCONOS-CATSKILLS.

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DESPITE LOWER EXPECTED
SNOW TOTALS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTIES FOR 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. REPLACED REMAINDER OF WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FOR BOTH THE
WARNING AND ADVISORY...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES. THOUGH THE WARNING/ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 1 PM TODAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAIN IMPACT
TIME WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BOTH IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL
RATES AND INCREASING WINDS CAUSING SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING OF THE
DRY FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY-WARNING
COUNTIES...TO AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING
AND ESPECIALLY THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE TO UTICA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH
WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO BLOWING DRIFTING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TUESDAY WHICH WILL CHANGE
THE ORIENTATION OF DRIFTING SNOW ON ROADWAYS.

STORM PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCLUDING SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION...WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO PERSIST FOR A TIME...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

HIGHS MAINLY UPPER TEENS-MID 20S TUESDAY...AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW
WIND CHILL TO EVENTUALLY REACH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY IN NEW YORK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR EASTER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900 AM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTH
INTO NY THIS MORNING AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES EAST. VERY DRY AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA... THUS IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR SHOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE NORTH. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ALL NECESSARY CHANGES WILL
BE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR NOW... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HOLDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO
FIGHT VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK...FEEDING IN FROM ARCTIC HIGH IN QUEBEC
/TEMPERATURES THERE ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS
MORNING/. GRIDS TWEAKED FOR DETAILS BUT OVERALL ON TRACK WITH JUST
AN INCH OR SO A DRY FLUFF THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FOCUS ON THE
FINGER LAKES REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUE CONTINUES
TO BE NOR EASTER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SEE BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS CLIPPER REACHING COAST TONIGHT AND UNDERGOING
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS INTO A STRONG NOR EASTER...MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OF COURSE THE LARGER PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SKIM SOME
OF OUR AREA. WINTER STORM WARNING HOISTED FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-DELAWARE-OTSEGO.

IN THE MEANTIME...AT 415 AM...THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES...WITH SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW
NOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND EDGING NORTHWARD...JUST REACHING AVOCA
IN THE PAST HOUR AS WELL AS WELLSVILLE-OLEAN IN WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NY. IT IS RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES SO. EXPECTING
1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT HEADS TO THE
COAST THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO COOPERSTOWN
LINE DUE TO EASTERLY FEED OF VERY DRY AIR AROUND ARCTIC HIGH IN
QUEBEC. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEFORMATION ZONE
FORMING ON WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER CIRCULATION...EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF. AMOUNTS
THERE TODAY INTO EVENING MAY BE MORE LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES /STEUBEN-
YATES- SENECA/...NOT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS
CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...SO THE
SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...PRONE TO SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING AS
WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND EASTERN JOG TO THE TRACK IS NOTED IN
MODELS FOR THE NOR EASTER. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT...AND
REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION...YET ALSO HAS DROPPED OFF
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS
DESPITE THIS STORM BEING ALMOST UPON US. STICKING POINT SEEMS TO
BE HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF...AND THUS WHEN THAT
UPPER LOW CAN PULL IN THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THE
EARLIER THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER OUR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN
POCONOS-CATSKILLS.

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DESPITE LOWER EXPECTED
SNOW TOTALS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTIES FOR 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. REPLACED REMAINDER OF WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FOR BOTH THE
WARNING AND ADVISORY...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES. THOUGH THE WARNING/ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 1 PM TODAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAIN IMPACT
TIME WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BOTH IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL
RATES AND INCREASING WINDS CAUSING SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING OF THE
DRY FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY-WARNING
COUNTIES...TO AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING
AND ESPECIALLY THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE TO UTICA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH
WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO BLOWING DRIFTING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TUESDAY WHICH WILL CHANGE
THE ORIENTATION OF DRIFTING SNOW ON ROADWAYS.

STORM PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCLUDING SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION...WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO PERSIST FOR A TIME...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

HIGHS MAINLY UPPER TEENS-MID 20S TUESDAY...AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW
WIND CHILL TO EVENTUALLY REACH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 261921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY IN NEW YORK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR EASTER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
900 AM EST UPDATE...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTH
INTO NY THIS MORNING AS THE CLIPPER PUSHES EAST. VERY DRY AIR IS
STILL IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA... THUS IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR SHOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE NORTH. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. ALL NECESSARY CHANGES WILL
BE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR NOW... PREVIOUS
FORECAST HOLDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
630 AM UPDATE...
CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO
FIGHT VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK...FEEDING IN FROM ARCTIC HIGH IN QUEBEC
/TEMPERATURES THERE ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS
MORNING/. GRIDS TWEAKED FOR DETAILS BUT OVERALL ON TRACK WITH JUST
AN INCH OR SO A DRY FLUFF THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW FOCUS ON THE
FINGER LAKES REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY ISSUE CONTINUES
TO BE NOR EASTER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SEE BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS CLIPPER REACHING COAST TONIGHT AND UNDERGOING
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS INTO A STRONG NOR EASTER...MORE ON THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. OF COURSE THE LARGER PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST SKIM SOME
OF OUR AREA. WINTER STORM WARNING HOISTED FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-DELAWARE-OTSEGO.

IN THE MEANTIME...AT 415 AM...THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES...WITH SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW
NOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND EDGING NORTHWARD...JUST REACHING AVOCA
IN THE PAST HOUR AS WELL AS WELLSVILLE-OLEAN IN WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NY. IT IS RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR AS IT DOES SO. EXPECTING
1 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT HEADS TO THE
COAST THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SYRACUSE TO COOPERSTOWN
LINE DUE TO EASTERLY FEED OF VERY DRY AIR AROUND ARCTIC HIGH IN
QUEBEC. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON DEFORMATION ZONE
FORMING ON WESTERN EDGE OF UPPER CIRCULATION...EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF. AMOUNTS
THERE TODAY INTO EVENING MAY BE MORE LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES /STEUBEN-
YATES- SENECA/...NOT ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY BUT WILL NEVERTHELESS
CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...SO THE
SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY...PRONE TO SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING AS
WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM UPDATE...
SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION AND EASTERN JOG TO THE TRACK IS NOTED IN
MODELS FOR THE NOR EASTER. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT...AND
REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTION...YET ALSO HAS DROPPED OFF
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS
DESPITE THIS STORM BEING ALMOST UPON US. STICKING POINT SEEMS TO
BE HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR UPPER LOW TO CUT OFF...AND THUS WHEN THAT
UPPER LOW CAN PULL IN THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THE
EARLIER THAT OCCURS...THE BETTER OUR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN
POCONOS-CATSKILLS.

IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...DESPITE LOWER EXPECTED
SNOW TOTALS...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HOISTING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTIES FOR 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. REPLACED REMAINDER OF WATCH WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. FOR BOTH THE
WARNING AND ADVISORY...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES. THOUGH THE WARNING/ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 1 PM TODAY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAIN IMPACT
TIME WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BOTH IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL
RATES AND INCREASING WINDS CAUSING SOME BLOWING-DRIFTING OF THE
DRY FLUFFY SNOW. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY-WARNING
COUNTIES...TO AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING
AND ESPECIALLY THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE TO UTICA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WHICH
WILL ALSO BE PRONE TO BLOWING DRIFTING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TUESDAY WHICH WILL CHANGE
THE ORIENTATION OF DRIFTING SNOW ON ROADWAYS.

STORM PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCLUDING SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION...WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
TO PERSIST FOR A TIME...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

HIGHS MAINLY UPPER TEENS-MID 20S TUESDAY...AND LOWS SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW
WIND CHILL TO EVENTUALLY REACH SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS MOVING
INTO RME SHORTLY. AVP IS CURRENTLY AT MVFR RESTRICTIONS BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN AND BRING
TERMINAL DOWN TO IFR IN THE NEXT HOUR. IFR SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SYR
AND RME THAT WILL GO TO LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER 04Z TUESDAY. AVP WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR VSBYS THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME WITH CENTRAL
TERMINALS (ITH, ELM AND BGM) ONLY THROUGH 11Z TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS OUT OF THE EAST 5-10KTS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY
15Z AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH AVP POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NR 20KTS
BY THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

OUTLOOK...

TUE AFTN...LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN IMPROVING
TERMINALS TO MVFR.

TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ048.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ040-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ046-057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF







000
FXUS61 KOKX 261834
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES REACHING JUST EAST OF
MONTAUK POINT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST
TO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY IS
FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW WAS REDEVELOPING N OR CAPE HATTERAS AT 1 PM. SNOW WAS
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY FROM NJ INTO THE CITY AND LONG ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE THE SNOW WAS LGT.

UP TO 4 INCHES BY DARK EXPECTED FOR THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA WITH
UP TO 2 ACROSS THE NRN TIER ATTM.

WINDS ARE ALREADY AROUND 30KT AT 44017...WITH MID 20S AT KFOK.

THE STORM APPEARS ON TRACK. THE 12Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
NAM AND 12Z ECMWF. HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACCORDINGLY WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE 20-30 RANGE FOR THIS EVENT.

TEMPS ARE RUNNING WELL BLW GUIDANCE...SO MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A LIFE THREATENING...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED
FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...

STILL ANTICIPATE THE LOW TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. THE LOW STALLS SE OF MONTAUK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NW
FLANK OF THE LOW...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERS AND INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY
SNOW BANDS...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THEIR LOCATION THIS
FAR OUT. MODELS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT SPREAD THE BEST LIFT
FAR ENOUGH NW IN INTENSE CYCLONES.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING.

SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY PER THE 12Z DATA TO A
GENERAL 20-30 E OF THE HUDSON.

IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP
TO 35 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH
INLAND...TO 45-50 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

WITH THE LOW NEARLY STALLING NEAR CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN MESOSCALE
BANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT
FALLING TO 15-20 TONIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NOR`EASTER BEGINS TO FILL AND PULL AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW.

BECOMING SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS. TEMPS FCST BELOW
MOS WITH SNOW COVER. WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE LOWER
TEENS.

CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NEW SNOW COVER.

CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT