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000
FXUS61 KALY 012042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE INCREASING ON
THE 290-295K SURFACE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
SHOWER FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE. VERY
DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS SO MOST OF THE PRECIP MAY BE VIRGA WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS
AT THIS TIME.

ANY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-
20 MPH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FIRST TIME THIS CALENDAR YEAR THAT
ALBANY WILL REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ALSO LIKELY ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NO FROZEN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY OVER THE
REGION...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECTING AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...SO WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
DIFFUSE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SNOWMELT AND SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER RISES
WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE POSITION/TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST NORTH TRACKING
THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE THE CMC/NAM ARE FARTHER SOUTH
CLOSER TO NYC...WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIP TYPE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS. BEST CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SO WILL MENTION IN
THE HWO. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS POLAR JET AND PACIFIC JET INTERACT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CONUS.  DUE TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS TOO WILL
HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS OF PV ANOMALIES WHICH IS WELL SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE AN ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL WILL FEATURE
HUDSON BAY LOW VORTEX WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR.  MEANWHILE PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BE COMING ASHORE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE EVOLVING EITHER ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF I80.  AS THE STORM DEPARTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF.  THE NEXT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
 THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP REMAIN VARIABLE SO WE WILL BROADCAST
CHC-SCT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING SUNDAY.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY RIDES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SPRING-
LIKE WEATHER ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BIGGER PUSH NORTHWARD.  THE RESULT
WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION.

NOW PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A GREAT CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WE WILL UTILIZE A RAIN/SNOW THICKNESS/SFC-TEMP
FROM A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF/GGEM.  THIS WOULD POINT TOWARD A MORE
WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND DAMPEN AS ITS CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL WHERE HAVE
VICINITY SHOWERS IN TAF.

NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BECOMING GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

SO DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT
IS STILL IN QUESTION THOUGH. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW ICE JAMS...
MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAY FALL AS SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND
INCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE THE MMEFS /HYDROLOGIC
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS/ FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING AT FALLS VILLAGE AND GAYLORDSVILLE ON THE HOUSATONIC.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SNOWMELT AND QPF UNCERTAINTY.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO COOL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF TO CONSIDERABLY SLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY IN
ALBANY. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE THIRD LATEST FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY
IN A CALENDAR YEAR...WITH ONLY 1941 AND 1895 HAVING A LATER FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY...APRIL 3RD AND 5TH OF THOSE RESPECTIVE YEARS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 012042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE INCREASING ON
THE 290-295K SURFACE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
SHOWER FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE. VERY
DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS SO MOST OF THE PRECIP MAY BE VIRGA WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS
AT THIS TIME.

ANY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-
20 MPH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FIRST TIME THIS CALENDAR YEAR THAT
ALBANY WILL REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ALSO LIKELY ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NO FROZEN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY OVER THE
REGION...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECTING AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...SO WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
DIFFUSE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SNOWMELT AND SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER RISES
WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE POSITION/TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST NORTH TRACKING
THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE THE CMC/NAM ARE FARTHER SOUTH
CLOSER TO NYC...WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIP TYPE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS. BEST CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SO WILL MENTION IN
THE HWO. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS POLAR JET AND PACIFIC JET INTERACT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CONUS.  DUE TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS TOO WILL
HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS OF PV ANOMALIES WHICH IS WELL SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE AN ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL WILL FEATURE
HUDSON BAY LOW VORTEX WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR.  MEANWHILE PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BE COMING ASHORE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE EVOLVING EITHER ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF I80.  AS THE STORM DEPARTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF.  THE NEXT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
 THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP REMAIN VARIABLE SO WE WILL BROADCAST
CHC-SCT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING SUNDAY.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY RIDES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SPRING-
LIKE WEATHER ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BIGGER PUSH NORTHWARD.  THE RESULT
WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION.

NOW PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A GREAT CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WE WILL UTILIZE A RAIN/SNOW THICKNESS/SFC-TEMP
FROM A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF/GGEM.  THIS WOULD POINT TOWARD A MORE
WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND DAMPEN AS ITS CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL WHERE HAVE
VICINITY SHOWERS IN TAF.

NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BECOMING GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

SO DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT
IS STILL IN QUESTION THOUGH. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW ICE JAMS...
MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAY FALL AS SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND
INCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE THE MMEFS /HYDROLOGIC
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS/ FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING AT FALLS VILLAGE AND GAYLORDSVILLE ON THE HOUSATONIC.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SNOWMELT AND QPF UNCERTAINTY.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO COOL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF TO CONSIDERABLY SLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY IN
ALBANY. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE THIRD LATEST FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY
IN A CALENDAR YEAR...WITH ONLY 1941 AND 1895 HAVING A LATER FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY...APRIL 3RD AND 5TH OF THOSE RESPECTIVE YEARS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 012042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE INCREASING ON
THE 290-295K SURFACE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
SHOWER FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE. VERY
DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS SO MOST OF THE PRECIP MAY BE VIRGA WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY REACHING THE GROUND. SO WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS
AT THIS TIME.

ANY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-
20 MPH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FIRST TIME THIS CALENDAR YEAR THAT
ALBANY WILL REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREES. SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
ALSO LIKELY ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO NO FROZEN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON FRIDAY OVER THE
REGION...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECTING AT
LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...SO WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
DIFFUSE FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SNOWMELT AND SUBSEQUENT RUNOFF. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER RISES
WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR
DETAILS.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONGER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE POSITION/TRACK OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.
LOOKING AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF IS FARTHEST NORTH TRACKING
THE LOW RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE THE CMC/NAM ARE FARTHER SOUTH
CLOSER TO NYC...WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. THE EVENTUAL STORM TRACK
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIP TYPE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON THE SOUTHERN
SOLUTIONS. BEST CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS SO WILL MENTION IN
THE HWO. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS POLAR JET AND PACIFIC JET INTERACT ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CONUS.  DUE TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS TOO WILL
HAVE TIMING IMPLICATIONS OF PV ANOMALIES WHICH IS WELL SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE AN ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF APRIL WILL FEATURE
HUDSON BAY LOW VORTEX WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
I80 CORRIDOR.  MEANWHILE PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BE COMING ASHORE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE EVOLVING EITHER ALONG OR JUST TO
THE NORTH OF I80.  AS THE STORM DEPARTS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF.  THE NEXT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
 THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP REMAIN VARIABLE SO WE WILL BROADCAST
CHC-SCT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING SUNDAY.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY RIDES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SPRING-
LIKE WEATHER ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A BIGGER PUSH NORTHWARD.  THE RESULT
WILL LIKELY BE A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION.

NOW PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A GREAT CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS WE WILL UTILIZE A RAIN/SNOW THICKNESS/SFC-TEMP
FROM A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF/GGEM.  THIS WOULD POINT TOWARD A MORE
WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND DAMPEN AS ITS CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL WHERE HAVE
VICINITY SHOWERS IN TAF.

NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BECOMING GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
BRINGING RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

SO DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT
IS STILL IN QUESTION THOUGH. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW ICE JAMS...
MAINLY FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER NORTHWARD. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
MAY FALL AS SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AND
INCH.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE HOUSATONIC BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE THE MMEFS /HYDROLOGIC
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS/ FROM THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING AT FALLS VILLAGE AND GAYLORDSVILLE ON THE HOUSATONIC.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SNOWMELT AND QPF UNCERTAINTY.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO COOL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF TO CONSIDERABLY SLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 50S ON THURSDAY IN
ALBANY. THIS WILL LIKELY MARK THE THIRD LATEST FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY
IN A CALENDAR YEAR...WITH ONLY 1941 AND 1895 HAVING A LATER FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY...APRIL 3RD AND 5TH OF THOSE RESPECTIVE YEARS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 012002
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTERY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A
BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST IMAGE LOOP SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING
UP AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. SSEO AND
SREF ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THEN EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE...A WARM NOSE SIGNATURE
IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOKS TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUCH THAT WHEN IT REACHES THE NORTH COUNTY TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. THIS YIELDS A
CHANCE OF A WINTERY MIX LATE TONIGHT. THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH A THIN
LAYER OF ICE COULD BRING SLICK CONDITIONS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.
THE WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH LOWS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN
WARMING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WITH
U20/L30 FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH U50S FOR THE NORTH COUNTY. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE THE WARMEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ADD AN ADDITIONAL BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SHORES. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE AS LONG AS THE WINDS STAY AROUND 180/190. IF WINDS VEER
TO SOUTHWEST THEN THE ICY TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE ERIE WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES IN METRO BUFFALO FROM REACHING 60. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MESOSCALE MODELS HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER THEN NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE BASED CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE TOO WEAK FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
INSTEAD KEEPS THE COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM. THERE IS STILL AMPLE LIFT ALONG THE AXIS
OF A 60 TO 70 KT LLJ WHICH IS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. NAM/GFS/SREF/RGEM
CONSENSUS QPF IS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SYNOPTIC NATURE OF THE
FEATURE PROVIDES GOOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THE LLJ WILL WARM MID-LEVELS AND RESULT IN MODEST ELEVATED CAPE
WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THURSDAY EVENING AND ONLY
DROP MODESTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 40S THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS OR FOG NEAR THE LAKES ONCE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.

CONSENSUS 12Z GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT
NOW LIKELY TO DROP INTO PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SUN ELSEWHERE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUITE
NICELY ON FRIDAY. THE WEAK FLOW WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE COOLER NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. INLAND...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 60 WITH AMPLE SUN.

A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BUT MOIST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE...THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAM WHICH ALSO SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS IF TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF QPF LIKELY TO COME BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING SHOULD RENDER THE APRIL SUN ANGLE MOOT. THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES LIKELY TO FOCUS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS STILL A COULD
DAYS OFF...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT LATER RUNS WILL BRING MORE
COLD AIR WITH THE INITIAL FRONT OR TREND STRONGER WITH THE
SYSTEM...BOTH OF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE THESE AMOUNTS.

THE WAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY WITH
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY. COLDER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A VERY LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER THIS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL AND STRENGTHEN. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL INITIALLY BE MODEST...BUT BY TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE WILL BE IN THE 60S AND THE
COOL SIDE ONLY IN THE 30S. FORECAST WILL USE A WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF
RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GGEM FOR THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FRONT TO BE OUR SOUTH (PUTTING US
ON THE COOL SIDE) IS ON SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
MEANDER NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN (OR POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS NORTH) DEPENDING WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH...WITH
NEARLY ALL LONG-TERM GUIDANCE FORECASTING SOMETHING SIMILAR. HOWEVER
WHEN IT COMES TO SPECIFICS FOR OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUBSTANTIALLY
WARMER (OR COOLER) THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT. STAY TUNED...AND BE READY FOR CHANGES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE FINE TUNES THE POSITION OF
THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING SKC
FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SURFACE HIGH. TONIGHT THIS SOUTHERN TIER CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES WITH
A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING. THEN CLOUD COVER
INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE MVFR ACROSS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AFTER 15Z THURSDAY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY...AND ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
SNOW HAS MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THURSDAY
EVENING...GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY ACTUALLY END AS
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT FROM WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME
FLOODING.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ENSEMBLES THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR FLOODING IN SOME OF THE CREEKS AND RIVERS. MMEFS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THERE A A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ICE JAMS IN THE BLACK
RIVER BASIN WHERE SOME SMALLER WATERWAYS STILL HAVE ICE IN PLACE.
THIS RISK FOR FLOODING IS MENTIONED IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OR
SNOW MELT INCREASES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 012002
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTERY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A
BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST IMAGE LOOP SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING
UP AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. SSEO AND
SREF ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THEN EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE...A WARM NOSE SIGNATURE
IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOKS TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUCH THAT WHEN IT REACHES THE NORTH COUNTY TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. THIS YIELDS A
CHANCE OF A WINTERY MIX LATE TONIGHT. THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH A THIN
LAYER OF ICE COULD BRING SLICK CONDITIONS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.
THE WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH LOWS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN
WARMING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WITH
U20/L30 FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH U50S FOR THE NORTH COUNTY. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE THE WARMEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ADD AN ADDITIONAL BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SHORES. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE AS LONG AS THE WINDS STAY AROUND 180/190. IF WINDS VEER
TO SOUTHWEST THEN THE ICY TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE ERIE WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES IN METRO BUFFALO FROM REACHING 60. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MESOSCALE MODELS HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER THEN NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE BASED CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE TOO WEAK FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
INSTEAD KEEPS THE COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM. THERE IS STILL AMPLE LIFT ALONG THE AXIS
OF A 60 TO 70 KT LLJ WHICH IS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. NAM/GFS/SREF/RGEM
CONSENSUS QPF IS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SYNOPTIC NATURE OF THE
FEATURE PROVIDES GOOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THE LLJ WILL WARM MID-LEVELS AND RESULT IN MODEST ELEVATED CAPE
WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THURSDAY EVENING AND ONLY
DROP MODESTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 40S THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS OR FOG NEAR THE LAKES ONCE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.

CONSENSUS 12Z GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT
NOW LIKELY TO DROP INTO PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SUN ELSEWHERE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUITE
NICELY ON FRIDAY. THE WEAK FLOW WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE COOLER NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. INLAND...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 60 WITH AMPLE SUN.

A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BUT MOIST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE...THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAM WHICH ALSO SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS IF TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF QPF LIKELY TO COME BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING SHOULD RENDER THE APRIL SUN ANGLE MOOT. THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES LIKELY TO FOCUS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS STILL A COULD
DAYS OFF...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT LATER RUNS WILL BRING MORE
COLD AIR WITH THE INITIAL FRONT OR TREND STRONGER WITH THE
SYSTEM...BOTH OF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE THESE AMOUNTS.

THE WAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY WITH
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY. COLDER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A VERY LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER THIS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL AND STRENGTHEN. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL INITIALLY BE MODEST...BUT BY TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE WILL BE IN THE 60S AND THE
COOL SIDE ONLY IN THE 30S. FORECAST WILL USE A WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF
RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GGEM FOR THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FRONT TO BE OUR SOUTH (PUTTING US
ON THE COOL SIDE) IS ON SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
MEANDER NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN (OR POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS NORTH) DEPENDING WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH...WITH
NEARLY ALL LONG-TERM GUIDANCE FORECASTING SOMETHING SIMILAR. HOWEVER
WHEN IT COMES TO SPECIFICS FOR OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUBSTANTIALLY
WARMER (OR COOLER) THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT. STAY TUNED...AND BE READY FOR CHANGES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE FINE TUNES THE POSITION OF
THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING SKC
FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SURFACE HIGH. TONIGHT THIS SOUTHERN TIER CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES WITH
A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING. THEN CLOUD COVER
INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE MVFR ACROSS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AFTER 15Z THURSDAY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY...AND ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
SNOW HAS MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THURSDAY
EVENING...GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY ACTUALLY END AS
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT FROM WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME
FLOODING.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ENSEMBLES THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR FLOODING IN SOME OF THE CREEKS AND RIVERS. MMEFS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THERE A A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ICE JAMS IN THE BLACK
RIVER BASIN WHERE SOME SMALLER WATERWAYS STILL HAVE ICE IN PLACE.
THIS RISK FOR FLOODING IS MENTIONED IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OR
SNOW MELT INCREASES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 012002
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTERY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A
BROAD LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. LATEST IMAGE LOOP SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING
UP AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. SSEO AND
SREF ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE THEN EAST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE...A WARM NOSE SIGNATURE
IN TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOKS TO WORK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUCH THAT WHEN IT REACHES THE NORTH COUNTY TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. THIS YIELDS A
CHANCE OF A WINTERY MIX LATE TONIGHT. THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH A THIN
LAYER OF ICE COULD BRING SLICK CONDITIONS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.
THE WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH LOWS OCCURRING BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN
WARMING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WITH
U20/L30 FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH U50S FOR THE NORTH COUNTY. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE THE WARMEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ADD AN ADDITIONAL BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SHORES. THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE AS LONG AS THE WINDS STAY AROUND 180/190. IF WINDS VEER
TO SOUTHWEST THEN THE ICY TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE ERIE WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES IN METRO BUFFALO FROM REACHING 60. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MESOSCALE MODELS HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER THEN NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE BASED CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ARE TOO WEAK FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND
INSTEAD KEEPS THE COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM. THERE IS STILL AMPLE LIFT ALONG THE AXIS
OF A 60 TO 70 KT LLJ WHICH IS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. NAM/GFS/SREF/RGEM
CONSENSUS QPF IS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SYNOPTIC NATURE OF THE
FEATURE PROVIDES GOOD FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THE LLJ WILL WARM MID-LEVELS AND RESULT IN MODEST ELEVATED CAPE
WHICH MAY SPARK A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THURSDAY EVENING AND ONLY
DROP MODESTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 40S THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS OR FOG NEAR THE LAKES ONCE WINDS
DIMINISH BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE.

CONSENSUS 12Z GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT
NOW LIKELY TO DROP INTO PA FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SUN ELSEWHERE WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUITE
NICELY ON FRIDAY. THE WEAK FLOW WILL LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE COOLER NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. INLAND...HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 60 WITH AMPLE SUN.

A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STALLED BOUNDARY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BUT MOIST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE WAVE...THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAM WHICH ALSO SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT. THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM IS IF TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN...WITH THE MAJORITY OF QPF LIKELY TO COME BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING SHOULD RENDER THE APRIL SUN ANGLE MOOT. THIS DOES
NOT MEAN WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES LIKELY TO FOCUS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS STILL A COULD
DAYS OFF...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT LATER RUNS WILL BRING MORE
COLD AIR WITH THE INITIAL FRONT OR TREND STRONGER WITH THE
SYSTEM...BOTH OF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE THESE AMOUNTS.

THE WAVE WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY WITH
SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY. COLDER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WHICH MAY PROMOTE A VERY LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER THIS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL AND STRENGTHEN. THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL INITIALLY BE MODEST...BUT BY TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE WILL BE IN THE 60S AND THE
COOL SIDE ONLY IN THE 30S. FORECAST WILL USE A WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF
RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/GGEM FOR THE POSITION OF THE FRONT. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FRONT TO BE OUR SOUTH (PUTTING US
ON THE COOL SIDE) IS ON SUNDAY. AFTER THIS THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
MEANDER NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN (OR POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS NORTH) DEPENDING WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS QUITE HIGH...WITH
NEARLY ALL LONG-TERM GUIDANCE FORECASTING SOMETHING SIMILAR. HOWEVER
WHEN IT COMES TO SPECIFICS FOR OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUBSTANTIALLY
WARMER (OR COOLER) THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT. STAY TUNED...AND BE READY FOR CHANGES IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE FINE TUNES THE POSITION OF
THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING SKC
FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A BAND OF MVFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SURFACE HIGH. TONIGHT THIS SOUTHERN TIER CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES WITH
A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING. THEN CLOUD COVER
INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND A WARM
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE MVFR ACROSS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AFTER 15Z THURSDAY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY...AND ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
SNOW HAS MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THURSDAY
EVENING...GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. SOME ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY ACTUALLY END AS
SNOW AS COOLER AIR BUILDS IN. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT FROM WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME
FLOODING.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ENSEMBLES THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR FLOODING IN SOME OF THE CREEKS AND RIVERS. MMEFS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THERE A A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ICE JAMS IN THE BLACK
RIVER BASIN WHERE SOME SMALLER WATERWAYS STILL HAVE ICE IN PLACE.
THIS RISK FOR FLOODING IS MENTIONED IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OR
SNOW MELT INCREASES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 011959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER
AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO
NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS
THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH
PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO
TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME
ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE
FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF
STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS
LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST
SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE
NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD
FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED
18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY
LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED
WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F,
THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A
SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED.

WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL
PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW
TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW
SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT
NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST
ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE
NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY
A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD
WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS OF SATURDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT
SNOW...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MODELS
SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z
SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL DRY AND THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING SOME
OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER
AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO
NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS
THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH
PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO
TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME
ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE
FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF
STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS
LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST
SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE
NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD
FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED
18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY
LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED
WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F,
THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A
SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED.

WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL
PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW
TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW
SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT
NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST
ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE
NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY
A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD
WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS OF SATURDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT
SNOW...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MODELS
SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z
SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL DRY AND THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING SOME
OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER
AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO
NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS
THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH
PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO
TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME
ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE
FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF
STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS
LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST
SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE
NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD
FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED
18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY
LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED
WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F,
THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A
SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED.

WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL
PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW
TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW
SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT
NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST
ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE
NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY
A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD
WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS OF SATURDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT
SNOW...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MODELS
SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z
SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL DRY AND THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING SOME
OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER
AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO
NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS
THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH
PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO
TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME
ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE
FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF
STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS
LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST
SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE
NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD
FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED
18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY
LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED
WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F,
THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A
SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED.

WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL
PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW
TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW
SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT
NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST
ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE
NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY
A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD
WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS OF SATURDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT
SNOW...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MODELS
SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z
SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL DRY AND THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING SOME
OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER
AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO
NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS
THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH
PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO
TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME
ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE
FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF
STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS
LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST
SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE
NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD
FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED
18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY
LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED
WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F,
THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A
SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED.

WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL
PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW
TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW
SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT
NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST
ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE
NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY
A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD
WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS
HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING, BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER
AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO
NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS
THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH
PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO
TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME
ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE
FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF
STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS
LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST
SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE
NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD
FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED
18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY
LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED
WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F,
THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A
SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED.

WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL
PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW
TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW
SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT
NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST
ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE
NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY
A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD
WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 011941
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE CITY. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE
ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND IF THAT IS THE
CASE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF AS DRASTICALLY AS THEY COULD.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER FOR
NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...AND IN THE 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS...BUT
THESE TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY...AND WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...CAN EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH 30-35 KT
GUSTS FOR NYC/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ/WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND
20-25 KT GUSTS ELSEWHERE. STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WILL
PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR NYC AND URBANIZED
PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CT...WHERE THE FLOW COMING OFF THE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 50S.

HIGH PRES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

SINCE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S...PRECIP WILL BE
ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING...AND
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. FOR
HIGHS...BLENDED IN COOLER NAM 2M TEMPS WITH MAV/NAM MOS...FIGURING
ON RAIN/CLOUDS/AND WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR AREAS FOR SOME
AREAS.

LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STILL A THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM. RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS PROBABLY PRODUCES PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...SO
OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY ON...DRY WEATHER WITH
CLOUDS DIMINISHING. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND.

THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL WEAKEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY
STALLS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON PCPN
CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. BEST GUESS CONSIDERING A ZONAL
FLOW IS THAT SHOULD THE FRONT PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA...IT
WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF IS APPEARING TO TREND
THIS WAY...WHICH IS TOWARDS THE GFS AND GGEM. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH WEDS. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD REMAIN. MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO
EVENTUALLY REMOVE POPS FOR MONDAY. PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN...EXCEPT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE CITY
WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. THE HIGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND BECOME SW BY MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. PASSING MID CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BOUNCE FROM LEFT TO RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END OR BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER
23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BOUNCE FROM LEFT TO RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END OR BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER
23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BOUNCE FROM LEFT TO RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END OR BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER
23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S/SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS
OR GREATER LOCALLY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS. WIND FORECAST
UNCERTAIN AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR. GUSTY
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SUB VFR AT
TIMES IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND DROPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RETURNING SCA
CONDS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING GUSTS OVER
25KT ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT JUST A LOW
CHANCE.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011941
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDS FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE CITY. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT SPREADING INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY PRODUCE
ENOUGH CLOUDS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND IF THAT IS THE
CASE...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF AS DRASTICALLY AS THEY COULD.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER FOR
NYC AND NEARBY SUBURBS...AND IN THE 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS...BUT
THESE TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DROPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING...GIVING WAY TO TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY...AND WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...CAN EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH 30-35 KT
GUSTS FOR NYC/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NE NJ/WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND
20-25 KT GUSTS ELSEWHERE. STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WILL
PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR NYC AND URBANIZED
PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CT...WHERE THE FLOW COMING OFF THE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 50S.

HIGH PRES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

SINCE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S...PRECIP WILL BE
ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING...AND
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER. FOR
HIGHS...BLENDED IN COOLER NAM 2M TEMPS WITH MAV/NAM MOS...FIGURING
ON RAIN/CLOUDS/AND WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR AREAS FOR SOME
AREAS.

LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STILL A THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM. RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS PROBABLY PRODUCES PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...SO
OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS EARLY ON...DRY WEATHER WITH
CLOUDS DIMINISHING. HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH A GUSTY NW
WIND.

THE FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY ZONAL. THIS WILL WEAKEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. MODELS DISAGREE WHERE THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY
STALLS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON PCPN
CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. BEST GUESS CONSIDERING A ZONAL
FLOW IS THAT SHOULD THE FRONT PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA...IT
WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ECMWF IS APPEARING TO TREND
THIS WAY...WHICH IS TOWARDS THE GFS AND GGEM. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH WEDS. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE
DRY...BUT THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD REMAIN. MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO
EVENTUALLY REMOVE POPS FOR MONDAY. PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN...EXCEPT
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE CITY
WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. THE HIGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND BECOME SW BY MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. PASSING MID CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BOUNCE FROM LEFT TO RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END OR BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER
23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BOUNCE FROM LEFT TO RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END OR BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER
23Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BOUNCE FROM LEFT TO RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END OR BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER
23Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S/SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS
OR GREATER LOCALLY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS. WIND FORECAST
UNCERTAIN AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR. GUSTY
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SUB VFR AT
TIMES IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND DROPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WATERS. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDS LATE AT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RETURNING SCA
CONDS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE OTHER WATERS...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING GUSTS OVER
25KT ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT JUST A LOW
CHANCE.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 011923
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
EVENING BRINGING DRY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK LATE TONIGHT... THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
WEATHER ON THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER SW NEW SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWERED BLENDED MAV/MET MOS BY A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT
WINDS AND PATCHY REMAINING SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR REASONABLY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE OVER THE FINGER
LAKES A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER SCENARIO
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN DIVERGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
AT LEAST LATE DECEMBER... WHEN A BRIEF WARM SPELL OCCURRED AROUND
CHRISTMAS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGNA WITH MID 60S IN INDIANA AND A MODERATLY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING THAT AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 60 IN MANY
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE HEAVY BUT DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 40S WILL BEGIN TO MELT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
PACK THAT STILL REMAINS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. RISING CAN BE
EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS BY FRIDAY.

THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST BECOME VERY UNCERTAIN ON FRIDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER PA LATER FRIDAY... WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT IN PA... AND A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NY. PWAT VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 1.00 INCH ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND NY/PA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET OVER QUEBEC... SO EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL PA THUNDER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY. THE
NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...
WHILE THE ECMWF/15Z SREF INSIST THAT THE SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NY STATE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WAVE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS OUR AREA... AND HOW
MUCH WILL BE RAIN VS. HOW MUCH WILL BE SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SOME RAIN LATER FRIDAY
ENDING AS SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY INDICATING A
BLUSTERY COLD DAY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND TEMPERATURES ONLY
AROUND 40.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGING WITH FAST MIGRATORY WAVES. CWA FALLS IN THE STORM TRACKS
MULTIPLE TIMES AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN A NW FLOW. DOES
NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT BUT A COLD FRONT
GOES THROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. SUN NGT TO MONDAY A WEAK STORM
MOVES IN FROM WEST WITH MIXED PRECIP. A BIGGER STORM MOVES IN TUE
TO WED. WITH A TRACK NEAR US COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE STORM TO WATCH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM WED UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. A WARM FRONT COULD BRUSH SYR AND RME
WITH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

NW WIND AT 10 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
AROUND 15Z THU S WINDS INCREASE TO 10 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTN...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

SAT NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011923
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
EVENING BRINGING DRY COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK LATE TONIGHT... THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
WEATHER ON THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. A PATCH OF CLOUDS OVER SW NEW SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. LOWERED BLENDED MAV/MET MOS BY A
FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES... LIGHT
WINDS AND PATCHY REMAINING SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR REASONABLY
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE OVER THE FINGER
LAKES A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER SCENARIO
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN DIVERGE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
AT LEAST LATE DECEMBER... WHEN A BRIEF WARM SPELL OCCURRED AROUND
CHRISTMAS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGNA WITH MID 60S IN INDIANA AND A MODERATLY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING THAT AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 60 IN MANY
AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE HEAVY BUT DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER 40S WILL BEGIN TO MELT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
PACK THAT STILL REMAINS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. RISING CAN BE
EXPECTED ON AREA RIVERS BY FRIDAY.

THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST BECOME VERY UNCERTAIN ON FRIDAY. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER PA LATER FRIDAY... WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT IN PA... AND A LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NY. PWAT VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 1.00 INCH ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE AND NY/PA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET OVER QUEBEC... SO EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST AS
FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL PA THUNDER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SATURDAY. THE
NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM...
WHILE THE ECMWF/15Z SREF INSIST THAT THE SURFACE WAVE WILL TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NY STATE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WAVE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS ACROSS OUR AREA... AND HOW
MUCH WILL BE RAIN VS. HOW MUCH WILL BE SNOW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SOME RAIN LATER FRIDAY
ENDING AS SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MODELS COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT ON SATURDAY INDICATING A
BLUSTERY COLD DAY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND TEMPERATURES ONLY
AROUND 40.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGING WITH FAST MIGRATORY WAVES. CWA FALLS IN THE STORM TRACKS
MULTIPLE TIMES AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN A NW FLOW. DOES
NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT BUT A COLD FRONT
GOES THROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. SUN NGT TO MONDAY A WEAK STORM
MOVES IN FROM WEST WITH MIXED PRECIP. A BIGGER STORM MOVES IN TUE
TO WED. WITH A TRACK NEAR US COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE STORM TO WATCH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM WED UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. A WARM FRONT COULD BRUSH SYR AND RME
WITH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

NW WIND AT 10 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
AROUND 15Z THU S WINDS INCREASE TO 10 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTN...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

SAT NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 011901
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMER AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 30S. MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO GET JUST ABOVE 40 TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGING WITH FAST MIGRATORY WAVES. CWA FALLS IN THE STORM TRACKS
MULTIPLE TIMES AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN A NW FLOW. DOES
NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT BUT A COLD FRONT
GOES THROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. SUN NGT TO MONDAY A WEAK STORM
MOVES IN FROM WEST WITH MIXED PRECIP. A BIGGER STORM MOVES IN TUE
TO WED. WITH A TRACK NEAR US COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE STORM TO WATCH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM WED UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. A WARM FRONT COULD BRUSH SYR AND RME
WITH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

NW WIND AT 10 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
AROUND 15Z THU S WINDS INCREASE TO 10 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTN...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

SAT NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/MSE
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 011901
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMER AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 30S. MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO GET JUST ABOVE 40 TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGING WITH FAST MIGRATORY WAVES. CWA FALLS IN THE STORM TRACKS
MULTIPLE TIMES AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN A NW FLOW. DOES
NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT BUT A COLD FRONT
GOES THROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. SUN NGT TO MONDAY A WEAK STORM
MOVES IN FROM WEST WITH MIXED PRECIP. A BIGGER STORM MOVES IN TUE
TO WED. WITH A TRACK NEAR US COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE STORM TO WATCH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM WED UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. A WARM FRONT COULD BRUSH SYR AND RME
WITH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

NW WIND AT 10 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
AROUND 15Z THU S WINDS INCREASE TO 10 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTN...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

SAT NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/MSE
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011901
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. WARMER AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 30S. MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO GET JUST ABOVE 40 TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 PM WED UPDATE...

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHANGING WITH FAST MIGRATORY WAVES. CWA FALLS IN THE STORM TRACKS
MULTIPLE TIMES AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN A NW FLOW. DOES
NOT LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE EFFECT EVENT BUT A COLD FRONT
GOES THROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. SUN NGT TO MONDAY A WEAK STORM
MOVES IN FROM WEST WITH MIXED PRECIP. A BIGGER STORM MOVES IN TUE
TO WED. WITH A TRACK NEAR US COULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. THIS WILL BE
THE STORM TO WATCH. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 PM WED UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. A WARM FRONT COULD BRUSH SYR AND RME
WITH MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT.

NW WIND AT 10 KTS THIS AFTN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
AROUND 15Z THU S WINDS INCREASE TO 10 WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU AFTN...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

SAT NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/MSE
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBUF 011834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD
LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A BAND OF VFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD
LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A BAND OF VFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD
LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A BAND OF VFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD
LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A BAND OF VFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DISSIPATES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD
LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 850-500MB
NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A BAND OF VFR STRATUS IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KALY 011759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND DANMPEN AS ITS CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL WHERE HAVE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TAF.

NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BECOMING GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND DANMPEN AS ITS CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL WHERE HAVE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TAF.

NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BECOMING GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND DANMPEN AS ITS CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL WHERE HAVE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TAF.

NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BECOMING GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING. ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND DANMPEN AS ITS CRESTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WITH ITS WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL WHERE HAVE VICINITY
SHOWERS IN TAF.

NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BECOMING GUSTY AT KALB BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011756
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY. A SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARM FRONT MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z-18Z
THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z THURSDAY...SO SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE WILL BE TO THE DEWPOINTS...AS
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH UNTIL THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW TRENDS BY GOING WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. THE HIGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND BECOME SW BY MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PASSING MID CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH 22-23Z. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH 22-23Z. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE WIND BACKS OR VEERS
UNEXPECTEDLY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z...AND NW WINDS MAY BACK BRIEFLY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S/SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS
OR GREATER LOCALLY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS. WIND FORECAST
UNCERTAIN AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR. GUSTY
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SUB VFR AT
TIMES IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS...AND CAN EXPECT N
WINDS 10-15 KT ON ALL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE WILL BE TO THE DEWPOINTS...AS
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH UNTIL THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW TRENDS BY GOING WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. THE HIGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND BECOME SW BY MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PASSING MID CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH 22-23Z. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH 22-23Z. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE WIND BACKS OR VEERS
UNEXPECTEDLY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z...AND NW WINDS MAY BACK BRIEFLY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S/SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS
OR GREATER LOCALLY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS. WIND FORECAST
UNCERTAIN AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR. GUSTY
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SUB VFR AT
TIMES IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS...AND CAN EXPECT N
WINDS 10-15 KT ON ALL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE WILL BE TO THE DEWPOINTS...AS
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH UNTIL THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW TRENDS BY GOING WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT. THE HIGH TRACKS TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND BECOME SW BY MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES THURSDAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PASSING MID CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC THROUGH 22-23Z. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE WINDS
SHIFT BACK TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310
MAGNETIC BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH 22-23Z. AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE WIND BACKS OR VEERS
UNEXPECTEDLY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 22-23Z...AND NW WINDS MAY BACK BRIEFLY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S/SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30 KTS
OR GREATER LOCALLY.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...THEN MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN DEVELOPING RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS. WIND FORECAST
UNCERTAIN AS FRONT REMAINS NEARBY.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR. GUSTY
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SUB VFR AT
TIMES IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS...AND CAN EXPECT N
WINDS 10-15 KT ON ALL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 011710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT...UPDATED MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S...AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS
THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE WILL BE TO THE DEWPOINTS...AS
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH UNTIL THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW TRENDS BY GOING WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS...AND CAN EXPECT N
WINDS 10-15 KT ON ALL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE WILL BE TO THE DEWPOINTS...AS
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH UNTIL THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW TRENDS BY GOING WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS...AND CAN EXPECT N
WINDS 10-15 KT ON ALL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE WILL BE TO THE DEWPOINTS...AS
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH UNTIL THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW TRENDS BY GOING WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS...AND CAN EXPECT N
WINDS 10-15 KT ON ALL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011646
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1246 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE WILL BE TO THE DEWPOINTS...AS
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO RISE MUCH UNTIL THIS
EVENING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND FOLLOW TRENDS BY GOING WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE WATERS...AND CAN EXPECT N
WINDS 10-15 KT ON ALL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KBGM 011558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1158 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 30S. MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO GET JUST ABOVE 40 TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/MSE
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011558
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1158 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT NOON... CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 30S. MOST PLACES
WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO GET JUST ABOVE 40 TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS/MSE
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE
FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES AND A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES SHIFTS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT
TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
EXCEPTION FOR THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A BROAD LAYER OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXTENDS FROM NEAR DETROIT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWEST PA.
THIS IS DUE TO TRAPPED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
DISTURBANCE WITH SOME CHANNELED VORTICITY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
850-500MB NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWS WEAK LIFT IS GENERATING SOME
LIMITED RETURNS ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY PRECIP
WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE
AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY KEEPING SKC FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT KJHW WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. TONIGHT CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND WARM AIR WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
NORTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 011439
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE WNW THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF ANY WIND SHIFT MAY BE OFF AN HOUR
OR TWO AS WINDS SHOULD BACK CLOSE TO 310 MAGNETIC.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BACK TO THE W/NW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011432
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1032 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1032 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS
MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER COOL DAY UNDER WAY...GOOD NEWS IS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. UPDATED
MAINLY FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011348
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
948 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY MID-DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST...CAN
EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MANY CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...WHICH ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 011130
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
730 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...STALL
NEARBY ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCH OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THIS MORNING. THEN A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY
AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO 875-825 HPA PER MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS...AND LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. WENT WITH A PTCLDY FCST THIS MORNING AS
THE HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT ACROSS...THEN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2M
TEMPS AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE
CITY...WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEARBY...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC-BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER EAST...
WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

N/NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. FLOW BECOMING SLY AFT 12Z THU
WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. SLY FLOW INCREASING TO 20-30KT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS
BECOMING NW FRI.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE. NW
FLOW.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAD BUILT TO 3-4 FT WITH WIND GUSTS UP 20 TO KT AS OF 10Z.
CORE OF BIGGEST 3-HRLY PRESSURE RISES AND ASSOCIATED 25+ KT GUSTS
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...AND TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW TO
THE EAST...SO STILL DO NOT EXPECT SCA CONDS THIS MORNING. THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL KEEP
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT ON ALL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE INVERSION COULD FORM
TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT
GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND
SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE RAPID
GROWTH/SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 011129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG A NARROW REGION OF CHANNELLED
VORTICITY WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND CLEARING THERE LATER IN THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT
KJHW LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 011125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 011058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 011058
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
658 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KALY 011045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010943
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
543 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON AND ALL FAR N INTERIOR
ZONES COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH ISOLATED 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/E...MARINE LAYER COULD PREVENT 25-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET (STRENGTH INCREASES FROM W TO E) FROM REACHING THE
GROUND.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT OVER
AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON...AND WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THERE LIKELY WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. AT THE MINIMUM THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY FIRES WHICH OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT




000
FXUS61 KALY 010853
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE WNW AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MALOIT



000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010806
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST...THEN SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALL NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN THEN PASS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...RESULTING SUBSIDENCE BY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MIXING TO
875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. IT ALSO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO FEW-SCT. SO ONLY REAL SOURCE OF
CLOUDS IS MID-HIGH DECK TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD ALSO WORK ON
THINNING UNDER THE RIDGE. AS A RESULT WENT WITH A SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN TO 875-825 HPA. HIGHS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...THEN
ITS AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MORE
THAN LIKELY WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. HOWEVER...PASSING SURFACE TO
850 HPA WARM FRONT THURSDAY MORNING COULD BRING A FEW
-SHRA/SPRINKLESTO MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES. FOR NOW...APPEARS
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL WIN OUT...BUT CANNOT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE AND 850 WARM FRONT THOUGH WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS IN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THERE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UNTIL HIGH
CLOUDS BUILD IN OVER MAINLY W ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT GENERATED CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON THE LOWS...SO DID NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. LOWS
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL IN NYC TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 1000-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE
OF TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND FAR SE CT TO THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S OVER NE NJ/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CHANCE SHOWERS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY...WITH STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING ONLY AFTER AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASS THROUGH. MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTAS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SFC- BASED FOR A TIME FRI AFTERNOON FROM
NYC NORTH/WEST AS HIGHS THERE REACH THE LOWER 60S. FARTHER
EAST...WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
RIGHT AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH FACING SHORES...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AND THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALSO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRAVERSES COLD ATLANTIC WATERS.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SAT MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS DIMINISH
CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVG.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN
CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THEREAFTER HAVE SIDED WITH 31/21Z
AND 00Z ECMWF IDEA OF A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW RIDING THE FRONT IN QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE INTERIOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.

GUIDANCE ALSO MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE IDEA OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MORNING...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
POSSIBLE THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS
DECREASE LAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS WERE AT 2 FT AS OF 7Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM 25
KT WIND GUSTS WERE CONTAINED WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES
OVER VA. THE TRAJECTORY OF THESE RISES IS NOT OVER THE AREA
WATERS. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 950 HPA WINDS BELOW 25 KT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH THE ABOVE...THERE SHOULD BE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT THIS
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.

OTHERWISE...A DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FOR NOW DO BRING GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MARINE
INVERSION COULD FORM TO PRECLUDE SCA WIND GUSTS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY 25-30 KT GUSTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NY
HARBOR/W LONG ISLAND SOUND/COASTAL OCEAN WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET.

A PROLONGED PD OF SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY WILL BE SETTING UP FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON...FIRST VIA INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT...BUT
LEFTOVER SWELLS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THAT TIME. NW TO W
WINDS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD REACH SCA CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS ON SAT...THEN CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNHSINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNHSINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010746
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
346 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING INTO THE REGION TODAY...WILL PROVIDE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY.
WARMER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA CREATING
AMPLE SUNHSINE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR AT LEAST BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
APRIL 1ST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWS FOR HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SFC HI WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WAA WILL PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL EXIT SOME AND WE SHOULD
FULLY BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL PUSHING CLOSE TO 60 OR JUST ABOVE 60 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
25-30MPH POSSIBLE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SHOWERS
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUNDINGS AND TIMING OF DAY
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS BOUNDARY SAGS
AND STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AWAITING
FOR NEXT WAVE AND SHORTWAVE TO HELP USHER THE COOLER AIR
INTO...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY...BEING BEHIND THE
FRONT THUNDER WILL LIKELY NOT BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDING
SUPPORT THIS THINKING. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOR
HIGHS...LINGERING IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010720
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM WED UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS ATTM. ENUF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFS REMAIN...SO THAT MAINTAINING
CONTINUITY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION.

SECONDARY SFC WV RIDING NEWD ALG A FRNTL BNDRY (WHICH WILL HAVE
JUST PASSED THE RGN) FRI NGT INTO SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT
WILL PROVIDE ADDTNL PCPN FOR NY/PA. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOW TRACK
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SUPPORTING S/WV WILL GO A LONG WAY TWDS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH PCPN...AND ALSO WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE
(INCOMING COLDER AIR COULD SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FOR AT
LEAST PTNS OF THE FA).

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PCPN FOLLOWING THE ABV MENTIONED SYSTEM...AT
LEAST OCNL BOUTS OF PCPN SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS DVLPG MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS AN E-W FRNTL BNDRY...
FCST BY MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE TO LIE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE
PLAINS-OH VLY-MID ATL STATES.

AS DISCUSSED BLO...CHILLY TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISC... 215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH/MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBUF 010633
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
233 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE MEAGER
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010633
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
233 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE MEAGER
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBGM 010527
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY COOL
WEATHER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM EDT UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT AS PLANNED AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE CWA BY 10 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT THRU MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PA
AND SOUTHERN NY... WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ATTENDANT TO THE CLIPPER
WILL SIDE EAST TONIGHT AND START TO PUSH THE CLIPPER OUT OF CWA.
THE UPPR LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY AROUND
00Z TONIGHT... WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA TO
START TO WINDING DOWN. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
10 PM TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN NY BY
THEN. VERY DRY MID LVL AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LEAD TO SKIES CLEARING OUT. EXPECT A DECENT CLEARING FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING AS MOISTURE IS RIDING ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL
RIDGE... BUT FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SUN.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A QUIET SPRING DAY. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
CHILLY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

A WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z ON
THURS... FOLLOWED BY THE SFC FRONT SHORT AFTER. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AND SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. SW SFC FLOW HELPS GENERATE STRONG WAA FOR OUR REGION.
THIS STRONG WAA... NOTED AT 850MB... WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY
REBOUND THURSDAY... WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING US OUR FIRST REAL
FEEL OF SPRING TO THE REGION. 1000-500MB HEIGHT THICKNESS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. THEY BECOME AROUND 555 DAM. SFC TEMPS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO UPPR 50S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA.
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S.

ATTENDANT WITH THE STRONG WAA... WILL BE MOISTURE. THE LOW LVL JET
WILL RAMP UP BY 00Z FRIDAY... TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH OVER THE CWA AND HELP CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS OUT... OVER OUR CWA... OR FURTHER SOUTH...
WE MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES OVER
OUR CWA... SO WE MAY SEE A FEW RUMBLES. EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
COLDER AIR LAGS BY AROUND 12 HOURS. A "SECONDARY FRONT" OR THE PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM... DOESN`T REACH THE CWA
TILL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE....

A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL JUST START TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR WILL HELP TRANSITION OVER LINGERING SHOWERS
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS... RAIN AND SNOW... WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND ONWARD THE FORECAST
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. DISCREPANCIES WITHIN GUIDANCE GROWS ON
WHEN WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND WHEN. BUT... ONE THING
GUIDANCE CAN AGREE WITH THAT IT WILL BE ACTIVE. LOOKS LIKE THERE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SAT NIGHT AND ONWARD.

TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. TEMPS
STARTING ON MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RISE BACK TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z WED UPDATE... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH 12-14Z...WILL BECOME NW AT 5-10 KT DURG
THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HRS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR.

THU NGT-FRI...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RAIN SHOWERS.

FRI NGT-SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM MIXED RAIN-SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF






000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MRNG...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCNL GUST POSSIBLE
THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LAT
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MRNG...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCNL GUST POSSIBLE
THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LAT
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC/NV
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 010511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
PASS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL MOVE
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL END
IN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY OVERNIGHT...A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE
VICINITY OF NYC...TO 25-30 ELSEWHERE. SOME LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF THE CITY ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WHICH IS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A RETURN SW FLOW THEN SETS UP. THESE SW
WINDS OFF THE COLD WATERS FOR EASTERN ZONES WILL LIMIT MIXING...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING...WESTERN ZONES ARE FORECAST
TO MIX UP TO AROUND 900MB. BASED ON THE AFTN FCST TEMP AT THIS
LEVEL...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
NOT AFFECTED BY THE OCEAN/SOUND INFLUENCES. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEA
BREEZE PUSHING THROUGH NE NJ...SO EXPECTING HIGHS UP TO THE MID 60S
HERE.

CLOUDS THEN THICKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY NW OF THE CITY.
BASED ON FCST MUCAPES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER.

SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY DURING FRIDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD LASTING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A CHC OF THUNDER. CLOUDS/RAIN AND
LIMITED MIXING...AS WELL AS A WIND FLOW OFF THE WATERS FOR SOME
AREAS...SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING. STILL...LOOKS LIKE
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

JUST A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS...THEN A GUSTY DRYING NW FLOW SHOULD HELP CLOUDS
DIMINISH CLOUDS AND KEEP US DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...BUT
MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THE FRONT POTENTIALLY WASHES OUT OR BECOMES STATIONARY
IN THE VICINITY AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE PRIMARILY RAIN...BUT THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES PROBABLY SEE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW LATE AT NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAIN FOR MONDAY WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

MODELS THEN SHOW OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PUSHING EAST ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT RAIN...EXCEPT THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS THIS MRNG...BACKING TO THE AFT 14Z. AN OCNL GUST POSSIBLE
THRU 14Z...WITH PREVAILING GUSTS THEREAFTER. WINDS DECREASE LAT
THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE BECOMING LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. FLOW BECOMING SLY ON THU.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN VFR LATE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES CONTINUES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

WINDS PICK UP ON THURSDAY WITH A RETURN SW FLOW. LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH
EITHER WINDS OR SEAS...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. THIS WOULD
START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
SWELL LINGERS. EVEN ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT PASSAGE COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS. AS FOR
THE OTHER WATERS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM
WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE A SCA MIGHT BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME SPOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW BANK FULL...BUT
INCREASED RIVER/STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WILL CONTINUE ICE BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IF THEY
OCCUR...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. SINCE ICE JAM FLOODING
IS UNPREDICTABLE AND SUDDEN...INTERESTS ALONG ICE COVERED RIVERS
SHOULD MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353.