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000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 031447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80...WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...MALOIT/PW/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...PW/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 031444
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS WELL. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031444
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS WELL. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 031444
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS WELL. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031444
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS WELL. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031444
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS WELL. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031444
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH PA DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY
MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR TO
THE NORTH. THUS EXPECT MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 TO
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND PROBABLY WELL
SOUTH OF THAT LINE AS WELL. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT -TSRA SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...CHC -TSRA INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 031427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS AND FEW CU. OTHERWISE A NEARLY PERFECT DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 60S...AND WILL BE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST BY
PLACES BY NOON.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
RAISED A FEW PLACES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...


IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS AND FEW CU. OTHERWISE A NEARLY PERFECT DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 60S...AND WILL BE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST BY
PLACES BY NOON.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
RAISED A FEW PLACES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...


IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 031338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
938 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...PLEASANTLY WARM...IS ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR EVENING FIREWORKS
CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST...FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND NOW JUST SOME HI CLDS OR
SMOKE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS
ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.

315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 031338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
938 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...PLEASANTLY WARM...IS ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR EVENING FIREWORKS
CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST...FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND NOW JUST SOME HI CLDS OR
SMOKE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS
ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.

315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 031338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
938 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...PLEASANTLY WARM...IS ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR EVENING FIREWORKS
CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST...FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND NOW JUST SOME HI CLDS OR
SMOKE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS
ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.

315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 031338
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
938 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...PLEASANTLY WARM...IS ON TAP FOR TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR EVENING FIREWORKS
CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST...FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

930 AM UPDATE...FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND NOW JUST SOME HI CLDS OR
SMOKE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS
ATTM. PRVS DISC BLO.

315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 031251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
851 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KALY 031136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

THERE WERE A FEW LOW CLOUDS (FEW002) AT KPOU BUT THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OTHERWISE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

THERE WERE A FEW LOW CLOUDS (FEW002) AT KPOU BUT THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OTHERWISE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

THERE WERE A FEW LOW CLOUDS (FEW002) AT KPOU BUT THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OTHERWISE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KALY 031136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

THERE WERE A FEW LOW CLOUDS (FEW002) AT KPOU BUT THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OTHERWISE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE 00/06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE
WITH NAM/RGEM QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE 00/06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE
WITH NAM/RGEM QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE 00/06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE
WITH NAM/RGEM QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE 00/06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE
WITH NAM/RGEM QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE 00/06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE
WITH NAM/RGEM QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 031122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE 00/06Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY.
SUSPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE
WITH NAM/RGEM QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THESE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION LATE TODAY. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031116
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT FRIDAY...CHILLY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH SLK
LOW OF 36F AND BTV DOWN TO 49 EARLIER THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL
WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK RIBBON OF
MID LVL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV/DACKS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F BY THIS AFTN.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE
A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER
A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL
QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY.
OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBGM 031048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE



000
FXUS61 KBGM 031048
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
     SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
608 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
     SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030837
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH 06Z SAT.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. SEABREEZES DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 030806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER
70S WARMER VALLEY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT
TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER
70S WARMER VALLEY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT
TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER
70S WARMER VALLEY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT
TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030750
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR CWA...WHILE A RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORT IN FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW
YORK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS...BUT GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. AFTER A CHILLY START WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE U60S MTNS TO UPPER
70S WARMER VALLEY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 7-9C. LIGHT
TRRN/THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY. OVERALL A BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...PLEASANT TEMPS...AND LOW RH VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MV/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBUF 030737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH A LARGE
AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE WITH NAM/RGEM
QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
SIGNIFICANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 030737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH A LARGE
AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE WITH NAM/RGEM
QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
SIGNIFICANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 030737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH A LARGE
AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE WITH NAM/RGEM
QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
SIGNIFICANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBUF 030737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH A LARGE
AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE WITH NAM/RGEM
QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
SIGNIFICANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



000
FXUS61 KBGM 030736
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE



000
FXUS61 KBGM 030736
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THINGS WILL DRY OUT...IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
315 AM FRI UPDATE... PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF NY...PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED DUE TO WET GROUND
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN WITH US
TIL 8 OR 9 AM...BEFORE BURNING OFF.

WE EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM FRI UPDATE... IN GENERAL...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THEY NOW TRACK A SURFACE
LOW AND SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AND CLOSER TO OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS
REPRESENTS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THIS SCENARIO IS WELL AGREED UPON BY OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...WITH DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND
THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED. AS A RESULT...WE`LL GO WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN (60-70% CHANCES) FROM VERY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
STEADIER RAIN SHIELD DOES BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE AS YOU HEAD UP
TOWARDS THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR...SO FOR OUR NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL
ZONES...WE`LL KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES LOWER (30-40%).

IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE`LL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...AS OUR POCONO AND WESTERN
CATSKILL ZONES ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY COOL WITH PERSISTENT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER (HIGHS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S)...WHILE SOME OF
OUR FINGER LAKES/LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID-
UPPER 70S...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LATE DAY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOP.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL DRY OUT IN TIME FOR
EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAIN PRODUCING
SYSTEMS LOOK PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AND THEY SHOULD BE WELL TO
OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHER THAN ISOLATED AND
BRIEF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...OUR WEATHER LOOKS RAIN-FREE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY...WITH WARMER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...AS FLAT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. THE NAM TRIES TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN RESPONSE. THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE...AND AS JUST MENTIONED...WE`LL RETAIN OUR RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-
MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030734
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING IN BEHIND.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. SATELLITE INDICATES
CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS PROG PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE TODAY.

MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE TO
AROUND 80.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE WITH
REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL MAKE THE JUMP
TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS OBVIOUSLY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY MID
WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO SPREAD IN
MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ARRIVE LATE
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TODAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW PASSES NEARBY
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...WINDS INCREASE AS THEY BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD  FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED INTO
THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS ATTM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT
THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030655
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030655
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030655
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030655
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AT 245 AM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST GETS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER MONDAY
WITH THE MODELS DISPLAYING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST... THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY... WITH A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE/TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030606
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KISP MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN
FOG...BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THIS
SHORTLIVED.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH
TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. DIRECTION AT
KISP/KBDR/KGON MAY BE 10-20 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SE FLOW...BECOMING E-NE LATE.
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHC OF IFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBUF 030549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER
WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOTH FASTER AND NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS MISLEADING...WITH QPF BULLS- EYE OF AN
INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE NAM/RGEM
APPEARING MUCH MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON
THE 10 DEGREE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER
WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOTH FASTER AND NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS MISLEADING...WITH QPF BULLS- EYE OF AN
INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE NAM/RGEM
APPEARING MUCH MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON
THE 10 DEGREE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER
WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOTH FASTER AND NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS MISLEADING...WITH QPF BULLS- EYE OF AN
INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE NAM/RGEM
APPEARING MUCH MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON
THE 10 DEGREE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER
WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOTH FASTER AND NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS MISLEADING...WITH QPF BULLS- EYE OF AN
INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE NAM/RGEM
APPEARING MUCH MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON
THE 10 DEGREE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER
WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOTH FASTER AND NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS MISLEADING...WITH QPF BULLS- EYE OF AN
INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE NAM/RGEM
APPEARING MUCH MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON
THE 10 DEGREE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER
WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. THERE
MAY BE SOME ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY...EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOTH FASTER AND NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS MISLEADING...WITH QPF BULLS- EYE OF AN
INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. THIS IS PROBABLY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FORECAST BY THE NAM/RGEM
APPEARING MUCH MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS HAVE INTRODUCED
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON
THE 10 DEGREE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF
THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
FEW- SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBGM 030542
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE




000
FXUS61 KBGM 030542
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z THIS
MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT ELM.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SAT...SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS... THEN PARTIAL CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP/MSE



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DROP MIN TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F CPV. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE SLV TOWARD SUNRISE...BASED ON
LATEST IR SAT SHOWING A NARROW RIBBON OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 07Z-11Z
DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MV/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DROP MIN TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F CPV. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE SLV TOWARD SUNRISE...BASED ON
LATEST IR SAT SHOWING A NARROW RIBBON OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DROP MIN TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F CPV. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE SLV TOWARD SUNRISE...BASED ON
LATEST IR SAT SHOWING A NARROW RIBBON OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 030515
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DROP MIN TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ACROSS OUR REGION. THINKING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
SLK/NEK TO NEAR 50F CPV. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE SLV TOWARD SUNRISE...BASED ON
LATEST IR SAT SHOWING A NARROW RIBBON OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV



000
FXUS61 KALY 030515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER AWAY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY COOLED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT HOLDING IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE THE HIGHER CLOUDS PERSISTED LONGER AND PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING MUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...ONLY SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER AWAY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY COOLED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT HOLDING IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE THE HIGHER CLOUDS PERSISTED LONGER AND PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING MUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...ONLY SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT FARTHER AWAY. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY COOLED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHILE
COOLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT HOLDING IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...WHERE THE HIGHER CLOUDS PERSISTED LONGER AND PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING MUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...ONLY SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030425
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST. PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THAT RECEIVED
RAIN COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY
JUST BE ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG TO BE OBSERVED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AROUND 07Z
ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE MORNING.

SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 030245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN LINE
ALTHOUGH TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SKEWED BACK TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS
IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBUF 030236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN LINE
ALTHOUGH TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SKEWED BACK TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS
IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN LINE
ALTHOUGH TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SKEWED BACK TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS
IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBUF 030236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR AND MOONLIT SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AND THE 03/00Z NAM AND
02/21Z SREF ARE ALL SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW
YORK SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF A UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SURFACE LOW
MAY ADVECT ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK TO TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF THE 4TH WITH
SOME POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE CLEARING TO THE
EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY IMPACT DAYTIME PLANS BUT MODEL
TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER SHOULD MOVE BACK IN TO PROVIDE CLEAR
VIEWING OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. THE FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN LINE
ALTHOUGH TIMING MAY NEED TO BE SKEWED BACK TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS
IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE
FINGER LAKES. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND
500 J/KG SO ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND
SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM...AND THE LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH SOME
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM...AND THE LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH SOME
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM...AND THE LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH SOME
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 030234
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1027 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR
TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME...OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM...AND THE LIGHT WINDS
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH SOME
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 030128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 030128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MEAN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHWESTERN LONG
ISLAND. 00Z OKX SOUNDING DEPICTED SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS
LIKELY PREVENTED MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SO FAR OUT THESE
SHOWERS. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SLIDE TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE
INTERIOR...TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022342
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE
REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022342
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE
REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022342
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF NYC/NJ METRO AND SOUTHERN LONG ISLAND. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE
REGION...AND THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...17Z THROUGH 21Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 0030Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE
AROUND AN HOUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN FORECAST. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
.SATURDAY...VFR...A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBGM 022341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
LIGHT FOG COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 8Z TO BGM, ITH,
AND AVP. ELM WILL DEAL WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG AND IFR VISIBILITIES
BEFORE SUNRISE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 022341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
741 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
740 PM UPDATE...
STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL DELAY FOG ONSET OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FA.

MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS, AND ADDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

330 PM UPDATE...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD
CLR EARLY. FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO
ADVECT IN. HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL
DECPL ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
LIGHT FOG COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 8Z TO BGM, ITH,
AND AVP. ELM WILL DEAL WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG AND IFR VISIBILITIES
BEFORE SUNRISE.

LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP



000
FXUS61 KALY 022339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FAVORED SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER. SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 022336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU
WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE
OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-
CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT
BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 022336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU
WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE
OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-
CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT
BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR FOR KBTV/KMSS AROUND 06Z-11Z DUE
TO FOG/STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL NOT PERSIST AND WILL CLEAR
RAPIDLY FOR ALL STATIONS. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT 05-10 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...RJS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING DIURNAL CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LEAVE CLEAR SKIES REGION-WIDE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL
HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING DIURNAL CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LEAVE CLEAR SKIES REGION-WIDE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL
HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING DIURNAL CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LEAVE CLEAR SKIES REGION-WIDE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL
HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK



000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL
MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING DIURNAL CUMULUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
THIS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LEAVE CLEAR SKIES REGION-WIDE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL
HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES WITH LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS
WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU
WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE
OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-
CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT
BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MPV
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL RH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SUMMER FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN BOTH MPV AND SLK WHICH SHOULD ENABLE BOTH SITES TO
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. WITH ALL OF THE ANTECEDENT RAIN, FOG
WILL LIKELY SET IN. CURRENTLY I EXPECT TIMING OF FOG TO SET IN BY
8Z IN SLK AND AT 7Z FOR MPV. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WITH
DAYBREAK THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND SO BY 11Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 022307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU
WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE
OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-
CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT
BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MPV
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL RH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SUMMER FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN BOTH MPV AND SLK WHICH SHOULD ENABLE BOTH SITES TO
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. WITH ALL OF THE ANTECEDENT RAIN, FOG
WILL LIKELY SET IN. CURRENTLY I EXPECT TIMING OF FOG TO SET IN BY
8Z IN SLK AND AT 7Z FOR MPV. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WITH
DAYBREAK THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND SO BY 11Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU
WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE
OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-
CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT
BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MPV
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL RH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SUMMER FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN BOTH MPV AND SLK WHICH SHOULD ENABLE BOTH SITES TO
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. WITH ALL OF THE ANTECEDENT RAIN, FOG
WILL LIKELY SET IN. CURRENTLY I EXPECT TIMING OF FOG TO SET IN BY
8Z IN SLK AND AT 7Z FOR MPV. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WITH
DAYBREAK THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND SO BY 11Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 022307
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 701 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ANY REMAINING STRATOCU
WILL BE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE
OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-
CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT
BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MPV
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL RH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SUMMER FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN BOTH MPV AND SLK WHICH SHOULD ENABLE BOTH SITES TO
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. WITH ALL OF THE ANTECEDENT RAIN, FOG
WILL LIKELY SET IN. CURRENTLY I EXPECT TIMING OF FOG TO SET IN BY
8Z IN SLK AND AT 7Z FOR MPV. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WITH
DAYBREAK THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND SO BY 11Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 022229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WETR TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE EXPANED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE REGION...AND
THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KOKX 022229
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGES WETR TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. ALSO..HAVE EXPANED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
INCLUDE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HAS DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE REGION...AND
THESE COULD MOVE IN AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST TO
END THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH
TONIGHT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE
LOW CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE
SOUTH FORK OF LI.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KALY 022041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL



000
FXUS61 KALY 022041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KBGM 022037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY.
FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN.
HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL
ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG
ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN
EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC
SYNOPTIC PTRN.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM



000
FXUS61 KBGM 022037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY.
FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN.
HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL
ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG
ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN
EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC
SYNOPTIC PTRN.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KALY 022037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON
SATURDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 435 PM EDT...A PLEASANT EARLY JULY AFTERNOON CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNSET.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
HOURS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE A COLD
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
GENERALLY 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE TOPPED OUT FROM THE UPPER
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.

WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEY
AREAS...THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS REGION...AND FAVORED AREAS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A POPUP SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY/SATURDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER EXCELLENT
WEATHER DAY FEATURING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.

THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY IMPACT THE REGION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. ANY
FORCING WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST
AND HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A STRAY
SHOWER/PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STILL SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
WET WEATHER ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT IT
WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

ANY ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OVER IN TIME
FOR FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH EVENTUAL LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...HEADING
TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT
AGREE WITH THE GFS/CMC WHICH BOTH KEEP THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE THEN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS LOWERING SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY. WILL MENTION ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF ANY PROMINENT FORCING
MECHANISM. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO RISE AS WELL...WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S IT
WILL START TO FEEL MUGGY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY FOR
EARLY JULY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT CONSISTENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE TIMING/STRENGTH
OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ARRIVING. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...AS THIS IS WHEN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING FOR A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE THE USUAL NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH
VALUES WILL DROP EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S
HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EAST TO END THE WEEK
WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE LOW WILL BE
PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE SOUTH
FORK OF LI.

IN ADDITION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY RESULT
IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
THOUGH IS SEEMING LESS LIKELY AS THE AIRMASS HAS ONLY BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ALREADY BEING MET. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH CAPES
OF 100-250 J/KG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021959
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECOND WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE EAST TO END THE WEEK
WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS TO PASS SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT. CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE LOW WILL BE
PRIMARILY STAY SOUTH LI THIS EVENING...PERHAPS GRAZING THE SOUTH
FORK OF LI.

IN ADDITION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY RESULT
IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
THOUGH IS SEEMING LESS LIKELY AS THE AIRMASS HAS ONLY BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ALREADY BEING MET. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH CAPES
OF 100-250 J/KG.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR...TO THE
LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON FRI WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO BUILD EAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL SEND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK SAT.

FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS IS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SW FRI NIGHT.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE 4TH OF JULY IS TRICKY WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING OUR CHANCES OF RAINFALL. FOR THE 12Z SUITE...NAM IS DRY
DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT...WITH GFS/ECMWF/CMC SHOWING SOME QPF
OUTPUT. MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD IMPLY THAT THE MORNING HOURS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. STILL...WILL BE KEEPING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR MAINLY THE NW ZONES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE
LOW. IN ANY CASE...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT...BUT THE
CHANCES OF A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT.
WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SUNDAY ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUD BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS CYCLONIC. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AT LEAST
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD PROBABLY REMAINS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ECMWF REMAINS A QUICK OUTLIER WITH
BRINGING IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH STARTING LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY. WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
PASS TO THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 21Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT DEVELOP
AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY MORNING- EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS. 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NORTH ON
FRI.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS. A SWELL COULD POTENTIALLY BRING OCEAN SEAS CLOSE
TO 5 FT DURING SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR
BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW



000
FXUS61 KBUF 021946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE BREEZES AND DRIER AIR ARE RESULTING IN CLR TO SCT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WIND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE BREEZES AND DRIER AIR ARE RESULTING IN CLR TO SCT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WIND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON MONDAY...THE
TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR SYSTEMS COMING
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A
MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT
TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE
DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A
WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT
WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED BEGINS DRY THROUGH MOST
OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS
ON SUNDAY BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY PATTERN WILL EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING IN HIGHER 850MB TEMPS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA THAT A NORTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ISN`T MUCH
CONSENSUS WITH THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ON HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT THROUGH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN THE
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS I KEPT THE IDEA OF SHOWERS BUT HAVEN`T
MENTIONED ANY THUNDER. THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT JUST ISN`T THERE TO
MAKE ME FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THAT JUST YET. I LEANED A LITTLE BIT
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE 250MB STEERING
FLOW. THEREFORE I DO HAVE A WEAK FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT SLK/MPV
OVERNIGHT. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL RH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SUMMER FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
DECOUPLE IN BOTH MPV AND SLK WHICH SHOULD ENABLE BOTH SITES TO
DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS. WITH ALL OF THE ANTECEDENT RAIN, FOG
WILL LIKELY SET IN. CURRENTLY I EXPECT TIMING OF FOG TO SET IN BY
8Z IN SLK AND AT 7Z FOR MPV. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT WITH
DAYBREAK THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND SO BY 11Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN
FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT
WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE THE OVERALL
DRIER TREND BUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED TIMEFRAME.

THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN BUT THE REAPPEARANCE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
DAMPENING THE FLOW AND BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND (STILL EARLY).

FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT...A RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY
BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROF ON SUNDAY EVENTUALLY GIVES
WAY TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR LATE SUN THRU EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DAMPENS UPPER
FLOW ACROSS FA WITH SYSTEM RUNNING PARALLEL TO FLOW PATTERN.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT MUCH BUT IT WILL PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY TUES NGT-WED AND NOT FAR TO OUR SOUTH THEREAFTER FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSRA.

THEREFORE...ENJOY THE UPCOMING WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER AS MORE
SHOWERS RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY LOW (MVFR) CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV WILL LUIFT
AND BECOME SCT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AND AT
KSLK/KMPV THRU 06Z FRI. AFT 06Z FRI...GOOD RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR AT KSLK/KMPV AND SOME IFR
IN OTHER MTN VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO SEE IF DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPS
FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KBTV.

WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THRU 00Z FRI
THEN CALM TO LGT VRBL.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT
WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE THE OVERALL
DRIER TREND BUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED TIMEFRAME.

THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN BUT THE REAPPEARANCE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
DAMPENING THE FLOW AND BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND (STILL EARLY).

FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT...A RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY
BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROF ON SUNDAY EVENTUALLY GIVES
WAY TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR LATE SUN THRU EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DAMPENS UPPER
FLOW ACROSS FA WITH SYSTEM RUNNING PARALLEL TO FLOW PATTERN.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT MUCH BUT IT WILL PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY TUES NGT-WED AND NOT FAR TO OUR SOUTH THEREAFTER FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSRA.

THEREFORE...ENJOY THE UPCOMING WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER AS MORE
SHOWERS RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY LOW (MVFR) CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV WILL LUIFT
AND BECOME SCT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AND AT
KSLK/KMPV THRU 06Z FRI. AFT 06Z FRI...GOOD RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR AT KSLK/KMPV AND SOME IFR
IN OTHER MTN VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO SEE IF DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPS
FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KBTV.

WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THRU 00Z FRI
THEN CALM TO LGT VRBL.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT
WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE THE OVERALL
DRIER TREND BUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED TIMEFRAME.

THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN BUT THE REAPPEARANCE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
DAMPENING THE FLOW AND BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND (STILL EARLY).

FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT...A RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY
BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROF ON SUNDAY EVENTUALLY GIVES
WAY TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR LATE SUN THRU EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DAMPENS UPPER
FLOW ACROSS FA WITH SYSTEM RUNNING PARALLEL TO FLOW PATTERN.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT MUCH BUT IT WILL PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY TUES NGT-WED AND NOT FAR TO OUR SOUTH THEREAFTER FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSRA.

THEREFORE...ENJOY THE UPCOMING WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER AS MORE
SHOWERS RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY LOW (MVFR) CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV WILL LUIFT
AND BECOME SCT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AND AT
KSLK/KMPV THRU 06Z FRI. AFT 06Z FRI...GOOD RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR AT KSLK/KMPV AND SOME IFR
IN OTHER MTN VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO SEE IF DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPS
FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KBTV.

WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THRU 00Z FRI
THEN CALM TO LGT VRBL.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
BRIDGED ALOFT BY DEPARTING BASE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH. CONSENSUS
MODEL BLEND INCORPORATING BIAS-CORRECTED DATA SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. PATCHY MIST/FOG ALSO A DECENT BET, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
WITH SOME RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALOFT AND GIVEN THAT
WE`VE HAD A FULL DAY OF DRYING AFTER YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN GENERAL
CONTROL OF REGIONAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TO WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL FORCING
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ONLY A TOKEN 10/20% POP WILL BE
OFFERED FOR A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE, MAINLY NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 ON FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY FROM 45 TO
55 FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SLIGHTLY MILDER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (50S TO NEAR 60). SO
JUST AN OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS IN STORE WEATHERWISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...WE CONTINUE THE OVERALL
DRIER TREND BUT A FLY IN THE OINTMENT POSSIBLE TUE NGT-WED TIMEFRAME.

THERE ARE HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN BUT THE REAPPEARANCE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
DAMPENING THE FLOW AND BRINGING ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND (STILL EARLY).

FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT...A RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE EARLY
BUT ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROF SWEEPS ACROSS
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROF ON SUNDAY EVENTUALLY GIVES
WAY TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FOR LATE SUN THRU EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DAMPENS UPPER
FLOW ACROSS FA WITH SYSTEM RUNNING PARALLEL TO FLOW PATTERN.
DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT MUCH BUT IT WILL PLACE A WEAK COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY TUES NGT-WED AND NOT FAR TO OUR SOUTH THEREAFTER FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSRA.

THEREFORE...ENJOY THE UPCOMING WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER AS MORE
SHOWERS RETURN MID WEEK AND POSSIBLY LATER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...ANY LOW (MVFR) CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV WILL LUIFT
AND BECOME SCT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE AND AT
KSLK/KMPV THRU 06Z FRI. AFT 06Z FRI...GOOD RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR AT KSLK/KMPV AND SOME IFR
IN OTHER MTN VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO SEE IF DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPS
FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT KBTV.

WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 05-15 KNOTS FOR THRU 00Z FRI
THEN CALM TO LGT VRBL.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THURS NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT POTENTIAL MVFR AT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE SAME TIME FRAMES. UNCERTAINTY ON
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KBUF 021837
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE BREEZES AND DRIER AIR ARE RESULTING IN CLR TO SCT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WIND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WARMING TO +16 TO
+18C. SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN...WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY
THE WARMEST SINCE MAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCROACH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING...THOUGH LIKELY
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN



000
FXUS61 KBUF 021837
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
237 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER WARMTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE BREEZES AND DRIER AIR ARE RESULTING IN CLR TO SCT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY WIND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SO WILL HEDGE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME MIXING UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA
WILL MIX OUT 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN COMFORTABLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND AID IN GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND THE FINGER LAKES.
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY RUN AROUND 500 J/KG SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE GARDEN VARIETY AND SHOULD BE BRIEF
IN NATURE. AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO THE LAKE SHADOW. THE AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL BE JUST A SHADE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SATURDAY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR
VIEWING FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEPART THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND WILL REPLACED BY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY...IN THE 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE WITH TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WARMING TO +16 TO
+18C. SUMMER WARMTH WILL RETURN...WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY
THE WARMEST SINCE MAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE MID 60S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCROACH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING...THOUGH LIKELY
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY.
FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN.
HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL
ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM THU UPDATE... ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CAN`T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION...AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK ACROSS NY STATE. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW POINTS/BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEASTERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WE CERTAINLY
DON`T EXPECT A WASHOUT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND ALSO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM THU UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-80S)...AS FLAT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
BEGIN TO EXERT THEIR INFLUENCE.

PREV DISC... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES... HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NEXT COLD APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CHC
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG
ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN
EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC
SYNOPTIC PTRN.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ/MSE
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY.
FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN.
HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL
ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM THU UPDATE... ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CAN`T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION...AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK ACROSS NY STATE. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW POINTS/BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEASTERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WE CERTAINLY
DON`T EXPECT A WASHOUT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND ALSO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM THU UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-80S)...AS FLAT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
BEGIN TO EXERT THEIR INFLUENCE.

PREV DISC... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES... HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NEXT COLD APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CHC
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG
ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN
EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC
SYNOPTIC PTRN.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ/MSE
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY.
FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN.
HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL
ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM THU UPDATE... ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CAN`T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION...AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK ACROSS NY STATE. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW POINTS/BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEASTERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WE CERTAINLY
DON`T EXPECT A WASHOUT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND ALSO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM THU UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-80S)...AS FLAT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
BEGIN TO EXERT THEIR INFLUENCE.

PREV DISC... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES... HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NEXT COLD APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CHC
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG
ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN
EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC
SYNOPTIC PTRN.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ/MSE
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 021752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY ON THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY.
FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN.
HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL
ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM THU UPDATE... ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CAN`T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PA...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION...AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK ACROSS NY STATE. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW POINTS/BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEASTERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME...A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WE CERTAINLY
DON`T EXPECT A WASHOUT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORESEEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A RESULT OF HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...AND ALSO THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM THU UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-80S)...AS FLAT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN STATES.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS...AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
BEGIN TO EXERT THEIR INFLUENCE.

PREV DISC... ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES... HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NEXT COLD APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING
THE AREA LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CHC
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG
ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN
EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC
SYNOPTIC PTRN.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ/MSE
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 021750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADDED RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THEY
MAY GRAZE THE SOUTH FORK OF LI LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE.

ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40 KT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND LACK
OF A STRONG TRIGGER. TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE NYC METRO.

NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
LI...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE
WITH A FAIR FORECAST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN
TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT
POPS BELOW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN- WED WITH PW GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT
SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MORNING FOG
IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE
GMOS25 AND MAINLY AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NE NJ TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 20Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT
DEVELOP AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SEABREEZE SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY
MORNING- EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK POINT AS SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO 4 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN-WED
AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...DW/JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN



000
FXUS61 KOKX 021750
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE ADDED RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THEY
MAY GRAZE THE SOUTH FORK OF LI LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE.

ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40 KT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND LACK
OF A STRONG TRIGGER. TRIGGER LOOKS TO BE A TROUGH JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE NYC METRO.

NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOC WITH WEAK LOW PRES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS
LI...WITH MORE SUN TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

COASTAL SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP...AND WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS INLAND.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN/NEAR NE NJ COULD DRIFT E
TOWARD NYC NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD START TO BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH N-NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THEN WEAK
COASTAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A COOLER LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST PLACES...AND
55-60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ON FRI UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
STILL...MAINLY 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRES WILL TRACK
OFF THE DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA ON THE 4TH. THIS GIVES THE CWA A
GLANCING BLOW AT BEST...AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN SOME EXTRA CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY LONG ISLAND INTO THE CITY AND NJ. INCLUDED SOME LOW
POPS...MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED HOWEVER THAT AT THIS POINT ANY RAIN LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AT BEST. THEREAFTER...HI PRES BUILDS IN AND AS A RESULT HAVE GONE
WITH A FAIR FORECAST THRU WED. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME RAIN
TUE AS RESIDUAL CONVECTION GETS ENTRAINED IN THE UPR RIDGE. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A ROGUE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT
POPS BELOW 15. DESPITE A DRY AIR MASS SUN- WED WITH PW GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 1 INCH...THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY AS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ARRIVES...AS PERSISTENT
SLY COMPONENT FLOW DRAWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME BOUTS OF MORNING FOG
IF WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. TEMPS THRU THE LONG TERM CLOSE TO THE
GMOS25 AND MAINLY AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR NORTH...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS AT LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY/NE NJ TERMINALS.

SEABREEZE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 20Z...EXCEPT AT KSWF WHERE FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS EVENING. NNE THEN NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT
DEVELOP AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KBDR/KISP/KGON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SEABREEZE SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT CT TERMINALS/KJFK LATE FRIDAY
MORNING- EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
WITH SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH 00Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEABREEZE MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 00Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR. SEABREEZE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SATURDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH VERY LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK POINT AS SEAS HAVE
DROPPED TO 4 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS.

SEAS WILL GET CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON SAT AS LOW PRES PASSES
TO THE S. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SUN-WED
AS A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES SETTLES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2 FT ARE
NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED AT THE
PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...DW/JMC/GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...JMC/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...DW/GOODMAN/JMC
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN




000
FXUS61 KALY 021744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS...AND TWEAKING OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL.

INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED POPUP
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID-
HUDSON VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS AND ANY POPUP SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT
FORM ARE IN RESPONSE TO ONE LAST PIECE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY/COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS NEW YORK.

MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
FACT...THIS RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY SUNSET.
FURTHER SOUTH...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CLOUD COVER
LIKELY LINGERING AFTER SUNSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY TO
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH PEAKS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION EXCEPT ACROSS THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE 80-82 RANGE. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WESTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
     VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN CU BASES THIS
AFTERNOON...ABOVE 3000 FEET (THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT THRESHOLD
AT KPSF). THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KPSF...BUT NO
IMPACT EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NW TO N 5-10KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON BY TONIGHT AND WE LOOSE THE SURFACE
HEATING. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND ANY WIND
WILL BECOME LIGHT OR CALM.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP. IT
APPEARS THE "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S. IT
LOOKS AS IF ONLY KGFL WILL DIP MUCH BELOW 50 TONIGHT SO WE DID
CONTINUE THE IDEA OF IFR FOG FORMING AT THAT STATION AFTER
08Z...LASTING UNTIL 11Z. AT KPSF...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 50...SO WE PLACED MVFR FOG AT THAT SITE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

THE OTHER TWO TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 50 OVERNIGHT SO FOR
NOW...JUST USED SHALLOW FOG (MIFG) AT BOTH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN
08Z-11Z.

AFTER 11Z...WE WILL HAVE A REALLY NICE AVIATION DAY FOR FLYING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY...A LIGHT
NORTH WIND AROUND 5KTS AND FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING 4000-5000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. THERE WILL BE THE USUAL
NEARLY FULL RECOVERY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LIGHT OR
CALM WINDS...YIELDING TO THE FORMATION OF DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP
EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT MAINLY FROM A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION UNDER 10 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AFTER THE WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AFTER SOME INITIAL CRESTS TODAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 021744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY TO A FEW AREAS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...A PLEASANT JULY AFTERNOON IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS...AND TWEAKING OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL.

INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED POPUP
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID-
HUDSON VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS AND ANY POPUP SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT
FORM ARE IN RESPONSE TO ONE LAST PIECE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY/COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING ACROSS NEW YORK.

MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN AT THE SURFACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
FACT...THIS RIDGING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY SUNSET.
FURTHER SOUTH...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CLOUD COVER
LIKELY LINGERING AFTER SUNSET ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY TO
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH PEAKS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION EXCEPT ACROSS THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD
HILLS WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE 80-82 RANGE. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WESTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FAIRLY
COMMON...AND EVEN SOME LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN VT. FRI
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 75-80 IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70-75 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY ONLY REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S. FRI NT/SAT AM MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL COOL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH SOME LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ONE
IMPULSE SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT NT. THE FIRST IMPULSE
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY PRECIP...BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT IF
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE PROBABLE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SECOND IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING WOULD FAVOR
MAINLY WESTERN AREAS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR A LATE DAY/EVENING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THESE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
SAT NT...WHILE KEEPING AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER DRY FOR NOW.
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD EVEN IF THEY
DO REACH THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
80S IN VALLEYS AND 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SAT NT/SUN
AM MINS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
SETTLES ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS FIRST A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...