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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260333
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1133 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH STEADIER SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A 40-50 LLJ EXITING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THE MAJORITY OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS OUR REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY WINDS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND LLJ AND PROMOTE DRYING. WHEN WINDS DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG NNE OF THE LAKES WITH MOIST
DEW POINTS OVERRUNNING THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS. THIS
SHOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT CANADA...BUT MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH 06Z...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECT THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FOG OR LOW CIGS WILL
DEVELOP NNE OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR ART LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE THERE IS ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IF LOCALIZED FOG/CIGS DEVELOP.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR JHW...BUT COULD
IMPACT ANY TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 260333
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1133 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH STEADIER SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A 40-50 LLJ EXITING INTO NEW
ENGLAND. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT THE MAJORITY OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEPS OUR REGION MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY WINDS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE AND LLJ AND PROMOTE DRYING. WHEN WINDS DIMINISHING LATE
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG NNE OF THE LAKES WITH MOIST
DEW POINTS OVERRUNNING THE RELATIVELY COOL LAKE WATERS. THIS
SHOULD PRIMARILY IMPACT CANADA...BUT MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH 06Z...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECT THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FOG OR LOW CIGS WILL
DEVELOP NNE OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR ART LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE THERE IS ONLY A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IF LOCALIZED FOG/CIGS DEVELOP.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR JHW...BUT COULD
IMPACT ANY TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 260241
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1041 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES STILL
ACROSS ONLY THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOWERS WILL EXPAND SOUTH BUT ONLY
LATE TONIGHT. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED UP
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.

6 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE
FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON.

330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS IN MOST OF CENT NY AND
HIGH CLOUDS BGM AND AVP. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT LATE TONIGHT IN NY
AND TUESDAY AT AVP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AND POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN AND WHERE. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MAYBE THE AFTN AND
THEN ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OPTED TO NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
EXCEPT AT SYR/RME LATE EVENING. TUES AFTN COULD ALSO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 KTS NOW...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND
DECOUPLING LATE. SW 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 260241
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1041 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES STILL
ACROSS ONLY THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOWERS WILL EXPAND SOUTH BUT ONLY
LATE TONIGHT. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED UP
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.

6 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE
FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON.

330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS IN MOST OF CENT NY AND
HIGH CLOUDS BGM AND AVP. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT LATE TONIGHT IN NY
AND TUESDAY AT AVP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AND POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN AND WHERE. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MAYBE THE AFTN AND
THEN ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OPTED TO NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
EXCEPT AT SYR/RME LATE EVENING. TUES AFTN COULD ALSO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 KTS NOW...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND
DECOUPLING LATE. SW 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 260241
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1041 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES STILL
ACROSS ONLY THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOWERS WILL EXPAND SOUTH BUT ONLY
LATE TONIGHT. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED UP
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.

6 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE
FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON.

330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS IN MOST OF CENT NY AND
HIGH CLOUDS BGM AND AVP. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT LATE TONIGHT IN NY
AND TUESDAY AT AVP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AND POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN AND WHERE. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MAYBE THE AFTN AND
THEN ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OPTED TO NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
EXCEPT AT SYR/RME LATE EVENING. TUES AFTN COULD ALSO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 KTS NOW...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND
DECOUPLING LATE. SW 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 260241
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1041 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES STILL
ACROSS ONLY THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOWERS WILL EXPAND SOUTH BUT ONLY
LATE TONIGHT. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED UP
AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.

6 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE
FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON.

330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS IN MOST OF CENT NY AND
HIGH CLOUDS BGM AND AVP. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT LATE TONIGHT IN NY
AND TUESDAY AT AVP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AND POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN AND WHERE. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MAYBE THE AFTN AND
THEN ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OPTED TO NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
EXCEPT AT SYR/RME LATE EVENING. TUES AFTN COULD ALSO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 KTS NOW...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND
DECOUPLING LATE. SW 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALL BOUNDARY AND A SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO. THE
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SHORT WAVE
WILL PASS ON BUY TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ONE MIGHT
FOLLOW LATER MONDAY.

AT 900 PM...ALBANY REPORTED 82 DEGREES WHICH WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SPOTS NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO! BY 10 PM...THE AIRPORT COOLED TO
79...STILL PLENTY MILD WITH A SOUTH BREEZE.

RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID HUDSON SEVERAL DEGREES...WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS WE LEFT THEM
ALONE.

LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 70 IN THE TRI-CITIES...UPPER 60S REMAINDER OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTH...LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO 60...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
DACKS WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE RAIN COOLER AIR.


A SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY AROUND 10 MPH RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 260208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1008 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FREQ GUSTS OF 25 KT HAVE ENDED BASED ON OBS SURROUNDING NY
HARBOR...SO ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS AT BUOY
44069 ON THE GREAT SOUTH BAY ARE STILL GUSTING IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S SO HAVE EXTENDED IT THROUGH 1 AM. THEY MAY DIMINISH BEFORE
THEN.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260208
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1008 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWS.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FREQ GUSTS OF 25 KT HAVE ENDED BASED ON OBS SURROUNDING NY
HARBOR...SO ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. WINDS AT BUOY
44069 ON THE GREAT SOUTH BAY ARE STILL GUSTING IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S SO HAVE EXTENDED IT THROUGH 1 AM. THEY MAY DIMINISH BEFORE
THEN.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KBUF 260206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF 40-45 LLJ AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH
BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM DKK-BUF-ROC WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS.

SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY KEEPS THIS
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
A BIT OF A BREEZE THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 60S.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL MOVE IN AND RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX WITH THE COOLER LAKE WATERS AND CAUSE SOME
LOW IFR CIGS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT
ART LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW. IN EACH
CASE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT SOME SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTMS AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 260206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF 40-45 LLJ AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH
BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM DKK-BUF-ROC WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS.

SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY KEEPS THIS
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
A BIT OF A BREEZE THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 60S.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL MOVE IN AND RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX WITH THE COOLER LAKE WATERS AND CAUSE SOME
LOW IFR CIGS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT
ART LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW. IN EACH
CASE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT SOME SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTMS AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 260206
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1006 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF 40-45 LLJ AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH
BEHIND THIS WAVE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM DKK-BUF-ROC WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST 925 MB WINDS.

SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY KEEPS THIS
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
A BIT OF A BREEZE THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 60S.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL MOVE IN AND RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX WITH THE COOLER LAKE WATERS AND CAUSE SOME
LOW IFR CIGS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT
ART LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW. IN EACH
CASE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT SOME SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTMS AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 260205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1005 PM EDT MONDAY...STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD
GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT...BUT STILL
PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FROM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 260205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1005 PM EDT MONDAY...STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD
GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT...BUT STILL
PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FROM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 260205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1005 PM EDT MONDAY...STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD
GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT...BUT STILL
PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD LIMIT FROM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPS AREN`T DROPPING QUITE AS FAST AS
FORECAST THIS EVE...SO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
FORECAST IN THE DATABASE TO REFLECT MORE OF A PTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NE...MOST
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.


    ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINS GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 03Z
THIS EVENING.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY OCCUR
AN HOUR OR SO LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS MAY END BEFORE 03Z THIS
EVENING.

AROUND MIDDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...190 TO 210 TRUE. TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE GUSTS MAY BE
LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY END EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SOON AFTER 00Z.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 10PM
WITH GUSTS AT JFK/EWR AND BUOY 44065 STILL ABOVE 25KT. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THIS EVE.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPS AREN`T DROPPING QUITE AS FAST AS
FORECAST THIS EVE...SO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
FORECAST IN THE DATABASE TO REFLECT MORE OF A PTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NE...MOST
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.


    ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINS GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 03Z
THIS EVENING.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY OCCUR
AN HOUR OR SO LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS MAY END BEFORE 03Z THIS
EVENING.

AROUND MIDDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...190 TO 210 TRUE. TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE GUSTS MAY BE
LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY END EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SOON AFTER 00Z.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 10PM
WITH GUSTS AT JFK/EWR AND BUOY 44065 STILL ABOVE 25KT. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THIS EVE.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPS AREN`T DROPPING QUITE AS FAST AS
FORECAST THIS EVE...SO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
FORECAST IN THE DATABASE TO REFLECT MORE OF A PTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NE...MOST
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.


    ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINS GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 03Z
THIS EVENING.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY OCCUR
AN HOUR OR SO LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS MAY END BEFORE 03Z THIS
EVENING.

AROUND MIDDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...190 TO 210 TRUE. TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE GUSTS MAY BE
LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY END EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SOON AFTER 00Z.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 10PM
WITH GUSTS AT JFK/EWR AND BUOY 44065 STILL ABOVE 25KT. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THIS EVE.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$




000
FXUS61 KOKX 260012
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPS AREN`T DROPPING QUITE AS FAST AS
FORECAST THIS EVE...SO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY
FORECAST IN THE DATABASE TO REFLECT MORE OF A PTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NE...MOST
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DECREASING
TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOATING AROUND
TOWARDS MORNING.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND
BY AFTERNOON WIND MAY BE 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KT.


    ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND REMAINS GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 03Z
THIS EVENING.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY BE A HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT
THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMES GUSTY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY OCCUR
AN HOUR OR SO LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS MAY END BEFORE 03Z THIS
EVENING.

AROUND MIDDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN...190 TO 210 TRUE. TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE GUSTS MAY BE
LATER THAN IN THE FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP AN HOUR TO TWO EARLIER THAN IN
THE FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY END EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SOON AFTER 00Z.

WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT UNTIL 07Z.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY
BEGIN AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN IN THE FORECAST.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25KT END EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LONG ISLAND.

.WEDNESDAY...LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR  STRATUS. LOW CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

.THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THIS IS A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSTM. WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 10PM
WITH GUSTS AT JFK/EWR AND BUOY 44065 STILL ABOVE 25KT. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THIS EVE.

NO CHANGES TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
FT TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND
CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$



000
FXUS61 KALY 260003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 800 PM EDT...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS AREAS
WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THAT IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR FROM COOLER AIR IS NEAR. SHOWERS LINE UP
ALL OUT TO SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE
HRRR/RAPP AND NAM KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.

A RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ONE
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS HELPED TOUCH OFF CONVECTION OFF LAKE ONTARIO BUT
THESE LOOK TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS WELL.

MEANWHILE QUITE A WARM EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL 80 OR HIGHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
OUT OF POPS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH. THE MSAS INDICATED ONLY LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO ONLY
MODERATE HUMIDITY). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO LIGHTNING STRIKES SO
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASING IN DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON THE MARK SO LEFT THEM ALONE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 260003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL PASSAGES
WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 800 PM EDT...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS AREAS
WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THAT IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR FROM COOLER AIR IS NEAR. SHOWERS LINE UP
ALL OUT TO SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE
HRRR/RAPP AND NAM KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION.

A RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ONE
POTENT SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.
THIS SHORT WAVE HAS HELPED TOUCH OFF CONVECTION OFF LAKE ONTARIO BUT
THESE LOOK TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS WELL.

MEANWHILE QUITE A WARM EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL 80 OR HIGHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY...MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A LITTLE KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
OUT OF POPS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS NORTH. THE MSAS INDICATED ONLY LOW INSTABILITY (DUE TO ONLY
MODERATE HUMIDITY). SO FAR...NO CLOUD TO LIGHTNING STRIKES SO
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS EVENING.

WITH CLOUDS AND SOME INCREASING IN DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON THE MARK SO LEFT THEM ALONE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDES AROUND  AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOR NOW...VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE
ONLY SITE MIGHT BE KGFL SO WE ASSIGNED A VCSH FOR THAT TAF SITE
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE THINKING ANY SHOWER WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON CLOUDS AND VSBY (STAYING MAINLY VFR).

OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH WIND BECOMING
LIGHTER 5-10KTS AFTER SOME RESIDUAL EVENING GUSTS TO ABOUT 18TS.

MONDAY...THAT WIND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE WE ASSIGNED GUSTS TO
18TS.

CONVECTION MIGHT FIRE UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH AN INCREASING HUMID
AIR MASS. FOR NOW...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A PROB30 IN
YET...SO FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH THE VCSH IDEA.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO FLY LATER ON MONDAY...PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSION TO SEE IF THERE HAS BEEN ANY UPDATES TO OUR THINKING
(WHICH MIGHT BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION).


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
SATURDAY...MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 252359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
759 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER EARLY THIS
EVENING TO WATERTOWN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF 40-45 LLJ AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. A CONSENSUS
OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (WRF/ARW/HRRR/NAM) CAPTURES THIS
WELL...BUT SOME OF THIS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS
QPF. THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SE OF A BUF-ART LINE WHERE THERE IS MORE RESIDUAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH BEHIND THIS WAVE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THIS KEEPS THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIT OF A BREEZE THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 60S.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SW-NE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO BELOW 5SM AT ROC/ART...BUT ANY SUCH
RESTRICTION WOULD BE SO BRIEF THAT IT IS NOT WORTH A PREDOMINANT
GROUP IN THE TAF. MORE IMPORTANTLY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING
AT MOST TAF SITES.

CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE BUT A CONTINUED FLOW
WILL RESULT IN IFR-MVFR CIGS NE OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR ART...AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW. IN EACH CASE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT SOME SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTMS AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 252359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
759 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER EARLY THIS
EVENING TO WATERTOWN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF 40-45 LLJ AND A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. A CONSENSUS
OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (WRF/ARW/HRRR/NAM) CAPTURES THIS
WELL...BUT SOME OF THIS GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS
QPF. THE FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS AND KEEPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SE OF A BUF-ART LINE WHERE THERE IS MORE RESIDUAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH BEHIND THIS WAVE
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THIS KEEPS THIS WAVE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIT OF A BREEZE THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 60S.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SW-NE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY TO BELOW 5SM AT ROC/ART...BUT ANY SUCH
RESTRICTION WOULD BE SO BRIEF THAT IT IS NOT WORTH A PREDOMINANT
GROUP IN THE TAF. MORE IMPORTANTLY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AND RESULT IN LLWS LATE THIS EVENING
AT MOST TAF SITES.

CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE BUT A CONTINUED FLOW
WILL RESULT IN IFR-MVFR CIGS NE OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR ART...AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW. IN EACH CASE...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ANY LOW CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT SOME SITES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TSTMS AT JHW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 252350
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
750 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE
FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON.

330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS IN MOST OF CENT NY AND
HIGH CLOUDS BGM AND AVP. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT LATE TONIGHT IN NY
AND TUESDAY AT AVP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AND POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN AND WHERE. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MAYBE THE AFTN AND
THEN ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OPTED TO NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
EXCEPT AT SYR/RME LATE EVENING. TUES AFTN COULD ALSO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 KTS NOW...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND
DECOUPLING LATE. SW 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC



000
FXUS61 KBGM 252350
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
750 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE
FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON.

330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS IN MOST OF CENT NY AND
HIGH CLOUDS BGM AND AVP. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT LATE TONIGHT IN NY
AND TUESDAY AT AVP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AND POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN AND WHERE. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MAYBE THE AFTN AND
THEN ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OPTED TO NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
EXCEPT AT SYR/RME LATE EVENING. TUES AFTN COULD ALSO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 KTS NOW...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND
DECOUPLING LATE. SW 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL SLOW TO PUSH NORTH
INTO CANADA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LED
TO A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL SLOW TO PUSH NORTH
INTO CANADA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LED
TO A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL SLOW TO PUSH NORTH
INTO CANADA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LED
TO A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL SLOW TO PUSH NORTH
INTO CANADA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LED
TO A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL SLOW TO PUSH NORTH
INTO CANADA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LED
TO A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252337
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA LATER TONIGHT...THE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. ON TUESDAY A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 737 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT STILL SLOW TO PUSH NORTH
INTO CANADA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...STILL LOOKING AT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE LED
TO A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KNOTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO
BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 252332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH ONLY MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AT MOST SITES...IF
ANY AT ALL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS MSS WHERE SOME LOCAL LIFR-IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT SLK 07Z-14Z. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR
AREA-WIDE. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT SOME LOCAL VARIABILITIES AT
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY MSS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AT MSS...SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN THERE.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBUF 252137
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
537 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (WRF/ARW/HRRR/NAM) DEVELOP
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AND ADVECT THESE INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SUPPORT THIS
GUIDANCE WITH RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH A SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. SOME GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO FAR WEST (INTO LAKE ERIE) BUT
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKE BREEZE WHERE
THERE IS MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS EARLY EVENING NW OF A JHW-ROC LINE...BUT SE OF
IAG. WITH NO STRIKES OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT. THIS SAID...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT OR
MISS...AND BRIEF IN NATURE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
BULK OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE RAINFREE AND RATHER HUMID WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE VALUES WILL BE A
SOLID 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO FOCUS
A BIT STEADIER SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE FROM SW-NE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THESE MAY IMPACT SOME TAF SITES WITH A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 252137
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
537 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (WRF/ARW/HRRR/NAM) DEVELOP
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AND ADVECT THESE INTO WESTERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SUPPORT THIS
GUIDANCE WITH RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH A SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. SOME GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO FAR WEST (INTO LAKE ERIE) BUT
SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKE BREEZE WHERE
THERE IS MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS EARLY EVENING NW OF A JHW-ROC LINE...BUT SE OF
IAG. WITH NO STRIKES OF LIGHTNING UPSTREAM HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT. THIS SAID...SHOWERS WILL BE HIT OR
MISS...AND BRIEF IN NATURE.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
BULK OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE RAINFREE AND RATHER HUMID WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE VALUES WILL BE A
SOLID 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO FOCUS
A BIT STEADIER SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE FROM SW-NE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THESE MAY IMPACT SOME TAF SITES WITH A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251959
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A WARM...INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AOA
FL100 LOWERING UNDER FL100 FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART WILL BE TIMING ROUNDS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE SEVERAL TARGETS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KSYR-KRME STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER
ABOUT 10Z-12Z. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TUES.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10-15 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 KTS AND RECOUPLING SW 5-15 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251959
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
359 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A WARM...INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS...
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AOA
FL100 LOWERING UNDER FL100 FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART WILL BE TIMING ROUNDS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE SEVERAL TARGETS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KSYR-KRME STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER
ABOUT 10Z-12Z. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TUES.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10-15 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 KTS AND RECOUPLING SW 5-15 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB




000
FXUS61 KALY 251955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED MAINLY EAST-
WEST...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHERN BERKS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS EASTERN NY WAS
NEARLY NULL IN ACTIVITY...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD YET PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE
PASSAGE AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN COMPARED TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...PREFER
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE LATEST RAP13
GUIDANCE. WHILE ITS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT IF ANY TRIGGERS
THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER/TWO...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR THE HEART OF THE CWFA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S
EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDESOF AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 251955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED MAINLY EAST-
WEST...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION
AND NORTHERN BERKS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS EASTERN NY WAS
NEARLY NULL IN ACTIVITY...WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGESTING AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT...NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGEST THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD YET PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE
PASSAGE AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN COMPARED TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS.
GIVEN THE EXPANDING SOUTHEAST COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...PREFER
THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE AS SEEN IN THE LATEST RAP13
GUIDANCE. WHILE ITS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT IF ANY TRIGGERS
THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER/TWO...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR THE HEART OF THE CWFA.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER WITH MAINLY 60S
EXPECTED...UPPER 50S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 WHERE WE WILL RETAIN THE CHC-SCT POPS. THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TOO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 70S FOR THE
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...PWATS TOO WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH HIGHER PWATS ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DEEPER CONVECTION. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL CATEGORY WITH DECENT LINEAR SHEAR PROFILES WITH
MAGNITUDESOF AROUND 30KTS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG BUT
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. PWATS ARE PROGGED
TO CONTINUE THE UPWARD CLIMB WITH NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTING
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE CURRENT HWO REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY HAZY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AS THE LATEST 25/12Z GLOBAL
MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A BROAD 500 HPA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS STACKED ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST SOUTH
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A RATHER
LARGE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM UPSTREAM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DIURNALLY TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE REGION TO INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN POP-UP STORM ACTIVITY.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DISTINCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS. AS THIS NOTICEABLE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WORKS EASTWARD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...LATEST 25/12Z DATA ALSO INDICATE A DEVELOPING
120 KT 250 HPA JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH OUR
REGION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND QPF AMOUNTS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVE WEATHER EVENT AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH U80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WITH HIGH IN THE MID 70S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER AS THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS NOT AT HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT RECOVER BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE TO
5-10 MPH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY RESULTING
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS WELL.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-28KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX
22Z-04Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROBABLY REMAINS JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CHANCE THAT WINDS
SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH THE SEA BREEZE. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS BACK TO 160-180
TRUE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL INTO THIS
EVENING. A GUST OR TWO UP 27-30KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 22-00Z. WINDS
AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE PM...LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF CITY TERMINALS. G20-25KT.
.WED...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. LOW CHC PM
SHRA/TSTM. G.25KT.
.THU-SAT...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CHC
SHRA/TSTM. G.20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WITH SCA LEVEL
WINDS NEAR THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. SCA WILL RUN ON NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 00Z. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 FT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COASTS. KBDI IS BLW CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE TO
5-10 MPH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY RESULTING
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS WELL.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-28KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX
22Z-04Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROBABLY REMAINS JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CHANCE THAT WINDS
SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH THE SEA BREEZE. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS BACK TO 160-180
TRUE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL INTO THIS
EVENING. A GUST OR TWO UP 27-30KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 22-00Z. WINDS
AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE PM...LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF CITY TERMINALS. G20-25KT.
.WED...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. LOW CHC PM
SHRA/TSTM. G.25KT.
.THU-SAT...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CHC
SHRA/TSTM. G.20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WITH SCA LEVEL
WINDS NEAR THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. SCA WILL RUN ON NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 00Z. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 FT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COASTS. KBDI IS BLW CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE TO
5-10 MPH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY RESULTING
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS WELL.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-28KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX
22Z-04Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROBABLY REMAINS JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CHANCE THAT WINDS
SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH THE SEA BREEZE. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS BACK TO 160-180
TRUE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL INTO THIS
EVENING. A GUST OR TWO UP 27-30KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 22-00Z. WINDS
AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE PM...LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF CITY TERMINALS. G20-25KT.
.WED...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. LOW CHC PM
SHRA/TSTM. G.25KT.
.THU-SAT...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CHC
SHRA/TSTM. G.20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WITH SCA LEVEL
WINDS NEAR THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. SCA WILL RUN ON NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 00Z. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 FT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COASTS. KBDI IS BLW CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE TO
5-10 MPH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY RESULTING
IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS WELL.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN FACING BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING S-SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN/AROUND NYC...AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW 80S...WHILE
LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO
WARM ABOVE THE LOWER 70S DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND WATER TEMPS
STILL IN THE 50S.

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH FORECASTED CAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL CAP POPS AT CHANCE...AS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD. WILL NOT MENTION SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AS SEA BREEZES SHOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT ON
THE AREA...AND ANY STORMS THAT POP UP WILL NOT BE ABLE TO LAST IN
THAT ENVIRONMENT.

SOME FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HARD TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTION WOULD SET
UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD BACK TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAMPENS AND LIFTS TO THE NE WED INTO THU. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUBTROP RIDGE...BERMUDA HIGH...TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...PUMPING IN WARM...HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE ONLY FORECAST DILEMMA IS WITH THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS
THE FASTEST...AND MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HOWEVER...DEFERRED TO
THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE THE AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE OUTSIDE OF ANY WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL BE A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED. STEERING FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THUS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-28KT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z. WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX
22Z-04Z. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2
HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING
COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROBABLY REMAINS JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CHANCE THAT WINDS
SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH THE SEA BREEZE. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS BACK TO 160-180
TRUE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE 1-2 HOURS
OFF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL INTO THIS
EVENING. A GUST OR TWO UP 27-30KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 22-00Z. WINDS
AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE PM...LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF CITY TERMINALS. G20-25KT.
.WED...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. LOW CHC PM
SHRA/TSTM. G.25KT.
.THU-SAT...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CHC
SHRA/TSTM. G.20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH WINDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND WITH SCA LEVEL
WINDS NEAR THE HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. SCA WILL RUN ON NY
HARBOR/SOUTH SHORE BAYS UNTIL 00Z. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5 FT AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WITH THE INCREASED SEAS...WILL GO
AHEAD AND CARRY THE SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDS TONIGHT...AND THEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...POSSIBLY
REDUCING VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 NM.

ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROP RIDGE.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COASTS. KBDI IS BLW CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL EVENT LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM AND
SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT WILL
THEN REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONT LIES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. NORTH OF OF THIS BOUNDARY...SHOWERS
ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NEW YORK WHERE MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE
GREATEST. THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
INDICATED THIS EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DECREASE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS WILL NOT BE FALLING MUCH...WITH
LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...WARM SECTOR WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C WHICH SUPPORTS MAX
TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICATED WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD WITH MUCH
OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES INTO REGION WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30
KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW...THUS NOT LOOKING AT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS. WITH THE HIGH PWATS HOWEVER...LOOKING AT POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR IT TO BE
A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE ATLANTIC KEEPING THE FRONT OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER
WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING FRIDAY AT 80-86
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS MAXES INTO THE M60S-M70S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251927
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY
SPOTTY CONVECTION TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DIMINISH EARLY
TONIGHT. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HUMID
AIR MASS...BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
RAINFREE AND RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S. THESE VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
MAY NORMALS.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251927
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A
WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY
SPOTTY CONVECTION TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DIMINISH EARLY
TONIGHT. A FEW POP UP SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HUMID
AIR MASS...BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
RAINFREE AND RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S. THESE VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
MAY NORMALS.

A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. HAVING A RATHER HARD TIME FINDING ANY BIG
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S (AWAY FROM THE LAKES)
AND EXPECTED HEATING OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LIKELY EVEN TO THE MID 80S...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE COULD DO THE
TRICK WITH AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIME FOCUS AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...
THEREFORE EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER STABLE WITH GENERALLY TALL
BUT THIN CAPES AND RATHER WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TAPER OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AN EFFECTIVE
CAP. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE QUITE THE STICKY SUMMER NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE AN AMPLE
SUPPLY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR. WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW-
60S...DON`T EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP LOWER THAN THE MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
OF THIS WEEK. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP THETA-E RICH AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION
THERE WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC REGIME WITH SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING A PATH FOR DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THIS COUPLED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIKELY
INITIATING ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INLAND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AT BEST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED
CAPES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG...MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MODEST AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY TOPS OUT AROUND 30KT WITH
A FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH. IN FACT THE MAIN THREAT OF THE DAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THAT SHOULD BE
QUITE WELCOME.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE
REGION...IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE INDICATED BY
THE MODELS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER WILL
NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ON THE LAKE
ERIE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND ANY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AFTER NIGHTFALL.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12C-15C RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND THIS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
REMAIN THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL KEEP IT FEELING QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE INDEED AS LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S
SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT TO RUN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY PLACING A DAMPER ON MOST CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD BECOME
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THOUGH AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL CARVE OUT
A TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THOUGH TIMING BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIFFERS SLIGHTLY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE THIS FEATURE
TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY AHEAD OF SATURDAY`S FRONT...THINGS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO
OUR SOUTH...YIELDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251824
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AOA
FL100 LOWERING UNDER FL100 FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART WILL BE TIMING ROUNDS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE SEVERAL TARGETS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KSYR-KRME STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER
ABOUT 10Z-12Z. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TUES.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10-15 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 KTS AND RECOUPLING SW 5-15 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251824
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AOA
FL100 LOWERING UNDER FL100 FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE DIFFICULT PART WILL BE TIMING ROUNDS OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE SEVERAL TARGETS
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KSYR-KRME STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED ON TUESDAY MORNING AFTER
ABOUT 10Z-12Z. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TUES.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10-15 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 KTS AND RECOUPLING SW 5-15 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251810
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SUNNY WITH OCNL
MID AND HIGH CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST ELSEWHERE. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-28KT. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED BEFORE 19Z MIGHT BE ONLY 10-14KT.
A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM 21-23Z. WINDS AT 750-1000
FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS
EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROBABLY REMAINS JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CHANCE THAT WINDS
SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH THE SEA BREEZE. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFT BACK TO SW COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS. SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS BACK TO 160-180 TRUE AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR 23-01Z.
END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD BE 1-2
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD FAVOR 140-170 TRUE THROUGH 21Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL THIS
AFTN/EVE. A GUST OR TWO UP 27-30KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-00Z.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE PM...LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF CITY TERMINALS. G20-25KT.
.WED...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. LOW CHC PM
SHRA/TSTM. G.25KT.
.THU-SAT...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CHC
SHRA/TSTM. G.20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN...SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND NY HARBOR FOR WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE
BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA
WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS
THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW




000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH THE
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING THIS BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...INTO THE CAPITAL REGION THEN DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKS. THE 1KM VISIBLE RSO IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST SOUTH OF I90 WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM TRENDS SHOWING MORE
BREAKS. SO WE WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVERAGE
THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IDEA WITH TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. LATEST HRRR/HRRRX
REFLECTIVITIES POINT TOWARD DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER W-NY AND
TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFTING SURFACE PARCELS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND
WITH HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A
VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1242 PM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF FORECAST AREA AS OF MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH RADAR
INDICATES PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST...ALTHOUGH MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND POPS...BUT OTHER THAN LOWERING MAX
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY AREAS...OVERALL FORECAST GENERALLY
UNCHANGED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING
DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER.
THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BORDER WITH 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY
WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A
VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1242 PM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF FORECAST AREA AS OF MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH RADAR
INDICATES PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST...ALTHOUGH MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND POPS...BUT OTHER THAN LOWERING MAX
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY AREAS...OVERALL FORECAST GENERALLY
UNCHANGED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING
DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER.
THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BORDER WITH 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY
WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT KMPV. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT ALL BUT KRUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AROUND
MIDNIGHT/04Z TUESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NRN NY AND EXPECT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 12Z/TUESDAY. KMPV MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-10Z.

LOW LEVEL JET OF 40KTS AT 925MB AND POSSIBLE 50KTS AT 850MB WILL
CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 24040KT AT 2000FT FOR
KMSS/04Z..KSLK/05Z AND KMPV/06Z. WHILE MIXING IS EXPECTED AT
KBTV...HAVING GUSTS AROUND 20KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BETWEEN 10Z- 12Z.

AFTER SUNRISE, EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MOSTLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL DECK REMAINING AND DISSIPATING FEW-SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06Z WEDNESDAY-12Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

12Z FRIDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

18Z SATURDAY ONWARD...COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BASICALLY PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VICINITY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATRURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BASICALLY PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VICINITY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATRURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BASICALLY PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VICINITY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATRURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251729
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
129 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BASICALLY PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VICINITY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTION IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIURNAL HEATING COULD BRING
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN THE TAF AS ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATRURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO AT KGFL DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z TUESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR KALB
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THERE DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251704
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SUNNY WITH OCNL
MID AND HIGH CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST ELSEWHERE. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30KT
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD PREVAIL 170-190 TRUE
BEFORE 16Z. FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE ONLY 27-29KT THIS AFTN/EVE.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST OR TWO COULD REACH 30KT FROM 20-23Z...BUT NOT
PROBABLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 16-17Z.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 20-23KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE THAT
WINDS SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND
17Z. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 17-20KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE
THAT GUSTS ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL. CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT 170-190
TRUE NEAR 20-21Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO S WITH SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD
BE OFF BY AN HOUR. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 16-19KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL THIS
AFTN/EVE. A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-00Z.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN...SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND NY HARBOR FOR WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE
BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA
WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS
THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251704
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SUNNY WITH OCNL
MID AND HIGH CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST ELSEWHERE. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30KT
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD PREVAIL 170-190 TRUE
BEFORE 16Z. FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE ONLY 27-29KT THIS AFTN/EVE.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST OR TWO COULD REACH 30KT FROM 20-23Z...BUT NOT
PROBABLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 16-17Z.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 20-23KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE THAT
WINDS SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND
17Z. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 17-20KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE
THAT GUSTS ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL. CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT 170-190
TRUE NEAR 20-21Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO S WITH SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD
BE OFF BY AN HOUR. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 16-19KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL THIS
AFTN/EVE. A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-00Z.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN...SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND NY HARBOR FOR WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE
BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA
WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS
THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251650
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1250 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A
VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1242 PM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF FORECAST AREA AS OF MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH RADAR
INDICATES PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST...ALTHOUGH MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED.
WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS AND POPS...BUT OTHER THAN LOWERING MAX
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY AREAS...OVERALL FORECAST GENERALLY
UNCHANGED. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING
DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER.
THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY
WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251541
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1141 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BASICALLY PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VICINITY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251541
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1141 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BASICALLY PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VICINITY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251541
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1141 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BASICALLY PUSHED NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PUSHING ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND LAKE ERIE WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING BUFFALO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE A
TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VICINITY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL EASILY SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THICKER CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251523
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251523
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251523
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1123 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THE LAKES IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WX AS BERMUDA
HIGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PRODUCE BKN-OVC SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST ELSEWHERE. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30KT
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD PREVAIL 170-190 TRUE
BEFORE 16Z. FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE ONLY 27-29KT THIS AFTN/EVE.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST OR TWO COULD REACH 30KT FROM 20-23Z...BUT NOT
PROBABLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 16-17Z.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 20-23KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE THAT
WINDS SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND
17Z. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 17-20KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE
THAT GUSTS ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL. CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT 170-190
TRUE NEAR 20-21Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO S WITH SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD
BE OFF BY AN HOUR. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 16-19KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL THIS
AFTN/EVE. A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-00Z.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW INCREASES THRU THE DAY...SO MAINTAINED THE SCA FOR THE S
SHORE BAYS AND OCEAN STARTING AT 18Z LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED NY HARBOR TO THE SCA DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE BAYS AND
WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA WAS
EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA MAY
BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS THE
SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251511
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1111 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WX AS BERMUDA
HIGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PRODUCE BKN-OVC SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST ELSEWHERE. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30KT
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION COULD PREVAIL 170-190 TRUE
BEFORE 16Z. FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE ONLY 27-29KT THIS AFTN/EVE.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE SHIFT TO S COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR. A GUST OR TWO COULD REACH 30KT FROM 20-23Z...BUT NOT
PROBABLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL 16-17Z.
FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 20-23KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE THAT
WINDS SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT BEGIN UNTIL AROUND
17Z. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 17-20KT THIS AFTN/EVE. CHANCE
THAT GUSTS ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL. CHANCE THAT WINDS SHIFT 170-190
TRUE NEAR 20-21Z WITH SEA BREEZE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SHIFT TO S WITH SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD
BE OFF BY AN HOUR. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY 16-19KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL THIS
AFTN/EVE. A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-00Z.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW INCREASES THRU THE DAY...SO MAINTAINED THE SCA FOR THE S
SHORE BAYS AND OCEAN STARTING AT 18Z LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED NY HARBOR TO THE SCA DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE BAYS AND
WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA WAS
EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA MAY
BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS THE
SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBGM 251454
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE ATTM.

THE SFC WARM FRNT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE FCST AREA AT
MIDDAY...WITH ANY ASSOCD LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES EXITING WITH IT.
THUS...WE`LL BE GOING WITH A RAIN-FREE FCST THIS AFTN. EARLIER
MENTION OF ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE SHWRS IN OUR FAR NRN/WRN ZNS
WAS REMOVED...AS IT APPEARS THAT FORCED ASCENT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SUCH DVLPMT.

EXPECTED 925-850 MB TEMPS THIS AFTN...WITHIN A DEEP WELL MIXED
WARM SECTOR TYPE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S OVER A GOOD PTN OF THE CWA.

LTR TNT (AFTER 02-03Z)...IT STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLD SHWRS COULD ENTER PTNS OF CNY...AS LEFTOVER/WEAKENING
CONVECTION FROM WRN NY...AS WELL AS THE LEADING EDGE OF S/WV
ENERGY ALOFT...BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN.

PREV DISC... 630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN- CORTLAND-NORWICH- COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A
VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH RADAR
INDICATES PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS REST OF VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING
DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER.
THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY
WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A
VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH RADAR
INDICATES PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS REST OF VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING
DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER.
THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY
WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A
VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH RADAR
INDICATES PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS REST OF VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING
DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER.
THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY
WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 251445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A
VERY WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ALTHOUGH RADAR
INDICATES PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS REST OF VERMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
POPS AND TEMPS FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST GENERALLY UNCHANGED. THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING
DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT
BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AGREE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER.
THE COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY
WITH THE SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH OF ALTO-
CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD
BE FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251425
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE PRODUCING MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE FROM AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
MORE PREVALENT SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE I-90 CORRIDOR LOOKS TO BE
RIGHT NEAR THE LINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY VS PARTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON. TRICKY CALL WITH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...AND RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 11Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBUF 251141
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH
OF ALTO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE
FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251141
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH
OF ALTO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE
FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THE VFR
CONDITONS COULD BE OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KOKX 251124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. DRY WX WITH A LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRODUCE BKN-OVC
SKIES AT TIMES. DEEP SLY FLOW PER TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO AROUND H85. WENT WITH THIS THEN
BLENDED IN THE NAMDNG TO BRING DOWN THE TEMPS AT THE COAST DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS RETURNING BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-30KT EXPECTED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH A MONDAY NIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW INCREASES THRU THE DAY...SO MAINTAINED THE SCA FOR THE S
SHORE BAYS AND OCEAN STARTING AT 18Z LASTING THRU TNGT. WINDS MAY
FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY
ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S
SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP
AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. DRY WX WITH A LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE AND THE RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PRODUCE BKN-OVC
SKIES AT TIMES. DEEP SLY FLOW PER TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO AROUND H85. WENT WITH THIS THEN
BLENDED IN THE NAMDNG TO BRING DOWN THE TEMPS AT THE COAST DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS RETURNING BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-30KT EXPECTED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH A MONDAY NIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY START EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. A PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST IN THE
TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY-FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG
LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHANCE SHRA/TSTM EACH
AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY NW OF CITY TERMINALS TUE AND WED. COASTAL
SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH S-SW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW INCREASES THRU THE DAY...SO MAINTAINED THE SCA FOR THE S
SHORE BAYS AND OCEAN STARTING AT 18Z LASTING THRU TNGT. WINDS MAY
FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY
ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S
SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP
AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JMC/PW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 251121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 06Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 251121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 06Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 251121
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO PARTS OF AREA AS FORECAST. STILL
VIRGA IN VT. NO NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 302 AM...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR
SHOWING DECENT SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING
MECHANISM TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AS FORECAST
AREA WILL LIE IN A MODEST INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT QUITE MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING LOWS IN THE 60S.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT
PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND UPPER SUPPORT. LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -4 WITH 800-1200 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR >30 KTS WITH LINEAR FLOW THUS NOT LOOKING AT
MUCH BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY
WITH THESE HIGH PWATS...LOOKING AT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH IS NEEDED
RIGHT NOW. MAX T FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE..TAD COOLER BUT MORE HUMID...L-M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS AND HAVE GONE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH THE FRIDAY FORECAST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAING A DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS FOR FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ON SATURDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WHICH BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWER SPEED OF
THE ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL HAS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. HAVE LOWERED THE SUPER-
BLEND POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS NOW APPEAR TO BE TRENDING DRIER FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS WARM
FRONT WILL BRING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD
SHOWN BY 06Z MONDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECTING VISIBILITIES
WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND CEILINGS
ALSO TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUESDAY-12Z TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

12Z TUESDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IN BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/KGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z/TUE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. KGFL MAY GET A MORE PRONOUNCED PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH SOME VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF.
A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z AT KGFL...AND
THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CIGS/VSBYS MAY BOTH GET TO THE MVFR LEVELS
THERE. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE VFR
RANGE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FROM KPSF TO KPOU.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AT
KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...BUT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 251044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS POPS BASED ON RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS AND TWEAKED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND WINDS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN-CORTLAND-NORWICH-COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN-CORTLAND-NORWICH-COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN-CORTLAND-NORWICH-COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN-CORTLAND-NORWICH-COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251035
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM MEMORIAL DAY...AND MAINLY DRY...THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MORE HUMIDITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM EDT UPDATE...
GRIDS TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR
BARK MUCH WORSE THAN BITE...IN THAT THERE IS THERE APPEARS TO BE A
LOT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MUCH OF IT IS
VIRGA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MAINLY JUST SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...NORTH OF PENN YAN-CORTLAND-NORWICH-COOPERSTOWN...AND
THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY ELSEWHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY IS TAKING SHAPE FOR
OUR REGION.

SURFACE FRONT IS IN PROCESS OF MOVING SW TO NE THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING MAINLY IN ONLY VIRGA FROM
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN NY. DESPITE THE APPEARANCE
OF REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...BECAUSE OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...I AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...WHICH
OVERALL WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH
HUMIDITY WILL BE GRADUALLY CLIMBING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MAY
ATTEMPT TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SPOKE OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. BUT WITH ABSENCE OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
ITSELF...AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
LOOK QUITE SMALL. WHAT LITTLE THERE IS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE TWIN TIERS. I ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER...SINCE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE MODELS ARE ALMOST NIL /VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CAPE...LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWALTER VALUES ALMOST
EXCLUSIVELY POSITIVE/.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AREA WILL BE IN DEEP SW FLOW AS RIDGE AXIS
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
WILL DAWN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS HOWEVER DO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
FLOW TO TRIGGER ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM AND GFS
INDICATE SB CAPES REACHING 500-1000+ J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. ALSO, SPC HAS INCLUDED EXTREME
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ARE AT THE LOWER END THRESHOLD FOR ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WE STILL CARRY THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IMPULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO
RIDE NE IN THE FLOW AND LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY
WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.

WEDNESDAY STILL SHAPING UP TO BE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING....MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH GREAT LAKES WITH LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST INTO THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AREA
STILL IN VERY WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT LAGGING BACK OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SET UP WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. PARAMETERS STILL INDICATING THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT. IT`S STILL A BIT EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT
AS FAR AS ANY DETAILS BUT SOME THINGS NOTED IN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE PWATS OF 1.80+ INCHES, DEEP LAYER NEAR SATURATION,
AND SLOW MBE VECTORS. CURRENTLY, BEST SET UP FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER NE PA AND FROM AROUND 81
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NY.

AS FRONT WILL ONLY BE PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND ONLY REACHING
NW BOUNDARY OF CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STILL WILL LIKELY
SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA ALSO REMAINS
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS STILL
DIFFER REGARDING HOW FAST FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY SO
KEPT CHANCE POPS IN. IN ANY EVENT, FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. SO THE UPSHOT IS THAT THERE REALLY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANY
DAY THAT SEES A REAL SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS OR DEW POINTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 80S. NEW FRONT APPROACHES FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER MODELS
ALSO DIFFERING ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH CIGS
FOR THE NY TERMINALS LOWERING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY UNDER 10 KFT
AGL. NON-RESTRICTIVE WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE SKIMMING BY KSYR-
KRME AROUND 12Z...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS FOR THE NY TERMINALS. INITIAL VARIABLE
OR LIGHT SE/S WIND EARLY MORNING...WILL BECOME SW LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON 9-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS...BEFORE DECREASING
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA-SCT TSRA...ESPECIALLY THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KALY 250932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 250932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMIDITY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A NEW AIRMASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER THIS MORNING`S...IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND BE SETTLED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL HOLDS ITS GROUND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALSO. WILL HAVE
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASING
DEW POINTS WITH READINGS BY WEDNESDAY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S.

WITH A VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
GREATER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE APPROACH
AND A SPEED MAX PASSES BY THE REGION AND GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE RISE AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES WHICH INDICATES STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 250903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK...IT WILL TURN WARM AND
HUMID. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY OUR WEATHER WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN IS FALLING FROM A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
INTO A RATHER DRY AIRMASS....SO IT IS LIGHT OR JUST VIRGA. GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE RISE DUE TO A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS INTO MID 50S EXPECTED BY EVENING SO IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL
HUMID TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10
DEGREES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM...HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR STORMS. MORE TO COME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
BERMUDA HIGH IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM.

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH...AS SFC DEWPTS WITH BE IN THE
M50S TO M60S.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.  PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1-1.5 INCH
RANGE...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +12C TO +14C RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO L80S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE LATEST WPC GRAPHIC JUST MOVES A
SFC TROUGH THROUGH.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH THU NIGHT.  LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
M50S TO L60S NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
LOWER TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG A BRIEF DRY STRETCH
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING WFOS
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DESPITE THE GFS INDICATING A BUBBLE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SE
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THE ECMWF DOES HAVE THE FRONT STALLED
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND REGION.  `HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80-85F RANGE OVER THE VALLEYS...AND M70S
TO NEAR 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...AS A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SE CANADA AND THE MIDWEST
AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE INITIAL BATCH WILL LIKELY BE WITH A
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THIS FAR
OUT IS HARD TO ASSESS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT...SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  THE GFS KICKS IT THROUGH FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY.
THE ECMWF LEANS CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE USED TO THE
NORTH.  HIGHS WILL TREND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS.

OVERALL...A WET...ACTIVE...AND UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z/TUE AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO 16Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL BTWN 16Z-19Z
AND A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED THERE.  A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS 22Z...AND THEY WERE PLACED IN THE TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

A VCSH GROUP WAS PLACED IN KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS S/SE OF THE BOUNDARY.  KPOU WILL SEE SOME
CUMULUS...BUT NO VCSH GROUPS WERE ADDED YET.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE
A S/SE BREEZE OF 4-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE S TO SE AT 5-10 KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN 10-15 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KALB/KPSF...AS THE THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THIS WEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S WITH MINIMUMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

IT WILL TURN WARM AND HUMID THIS WEEK AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBUF 250811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH
OF ALTO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD COVER
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...WITH SOME
STEADIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE
FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH



000
FXUS61 KBUF 250811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...AND
THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY SUPPORTER OF THE
MORE SUMMERY AIRMASS...AS ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER NEARLY A WEEK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WHICH INCLUDED
AN UNUSUAL MID MAY FREEZE...OUR REGION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL WEATHER.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...AND THIS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR SITES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGIONS WHERE A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LESSER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN THE VCNTY OF A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL USE SLGT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR
THIS AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...THE DAY WILL
BE RAIN FREE.

BY THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL FIND ITSELF SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE/MID-
LEVEL LOW FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CORRESPONDING
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 14C SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S...WITH MID 80S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
AND PRESENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD THE MERCURY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...OVERLYING H5 RIDGE
WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAKENED RIBBON OF
VORTICITY TO CROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OF THUNDERSTORM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TOP
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED VORTICITY. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT.

ALL IN ALL THOUGH...THE BULK OF TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN FREE AND
RATHER HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE A SOLID 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SHOULD LEAD TO A RENEWED OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY TEND TO FIRE INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND IN AREAS OF MORE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...BEFORE INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE OVERALL SETUP ON TUESDAY DOES
NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS STATED...WITH SOME OF THE SHORTER-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF DECENT INSTABILITY
(SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG) AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES FLIRTING
WITH 30 KNOTS...A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 FORECAST OF A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA LOOKS FAIRLY
REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...EXPECT A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD THEN TEND
TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND ITS ATTENDANT PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THE BEST OVERALL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES TO COME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN RENEWED DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TO WORK WITH...WITH
THIS IN TURN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS JUNCTURE... IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION...DEVELOPING SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER WIND FIELDS ALOFT /AND CONSEQUENT
GREATER AMOUNTS OF BULK SHEAR/ THAN SEEN ON TUESDAY COULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST
OVERALL READINGS LOCATED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND AS A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION
IN ITS WAKE...WITH THIS RIDGE THEN SETTLING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BOTH PULL BACK A LITTLE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RETREAT
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY...A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN
REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UP SOME 3-5 DEGREES OR SO FROM THURSDAY/S READINGS...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP A COUPLE NOTCHES INTO THE LOWER
60S. COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE INCREASING WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME
BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WAVE-LADEN COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING INTO OUR AREA FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...THOUGH
THESE PACKAGES STILL ALSO EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
ITS TIMING...WITH THE GFS REMAINING CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN ITS EUROPEAN COUNTERPART. GIVEN THE VERY WAVY AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...TEND TO BELIEVE THE WPC-BACKED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS PARTICULAR JUNCTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY EASING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SETTLING JUST A LITTLE TO OUR
SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER GENERAL RISK
FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER AND LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION TODAY...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE A WEALTH
OF ALTO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
LOWERING VFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD COVER
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SPRINKLES NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...WITH SOME
STEADIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY (KART/KGTB). THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE
FOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE.

THE RELATIVE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOMEWHAT ON LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH...AND THIS MAY PROMOTE WAVES TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS.

WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE THE RISK
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY
WARM AND SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SE INTO WESTERN NY WITH RADAR SHOWING DECENT
SHOWER/OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THAT BOUNDARY.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT TODAY
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE...AWAY FROM BEST ISENTROPHIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITNESSING LESS RAINFALL AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. THERE IS A DESCREPANCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE GFS TRYING TO DELIVER 1/2 TO 1 INCH ALONG CANADIAN
BORDER AND NAM12 LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH BOTH AGREE
VERY LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHERN VT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER. THE
COMPROMISE OF 1/3-1/2 INCH ALONG NRN BDR WITH 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN CENTRAL SECTIONS AND LESS THAN A TENTH IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
STILL HOLDS.

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER IN THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION...THOUGH SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH AND WEST COULD
SEE READINGS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IF WARM FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH THESE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EDT MONDAY...NO REAL CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS CONTINUES.

WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE CANDIAN
BORDER VT AND EXITING SW TO NE.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH +20 TO +23C
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMP