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000
FXUS61 KOKX 252350
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night and will
impact the area into Wednesday. Weak high pressure then follows on
Thursday and Friday with the next cold front moving through
sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends. The forecast is mainly on track.

An upper trough off the New England coast moves slowly east
tonight as height rise across New England into western
Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains across the
northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. With a similar airmass in
place as Friday night/Saturday morning, overnight conditions will
be similar too. Clear tonight, but expect some patchy fog to
develop late at night with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge remains across the region with the ridge axis from
the lower Hudson Valley into southwestern Pennsylvania. Meanwhile
the upper trough closes off late Sunday and drifts toward the
coast Sunday night as the upper ridge weakens somewhat. At the
surface, the high remains and weakens late Sunday night, drifting
a little south. Overall, conditions will once again be similar to
the past day. Daytime cumulus will build and sea breezes will
quickly develop with a weak pressure gradient force. Patchy fog
possible again Sunday night, and may be a little more extensive,
however, low level moisture increases slightly.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of the front, and some showers/thunderstorms may reach
Orange County by late in the day.

Both trough and front slowly move east Monday night through
Wednesday. Looks like the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
during this period will be Tuesday and Tuesday night with the
best combination of instability, moisture, and lift. Capped POPs
at 50% for now during these 2 periods. Might need to bump up POPs
on Wednesday should the trend of a slower frontal exit continues.

Weak high pressure follows for Thursday and Friday. Looks like
only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for far western
portions Friday afternoon with the approach of a pre-frontal
trough. Instability diminishes Friday night, so it will likely be
dry. A cold front then moves closer on Saturday with showers and
storms possible.

Temperatures through the long term period will be fairly close to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the area...shifts just se on Sunday.

With dry low-levels...VFR through the TAF period. Only exception
is possible patchy MVFR br development toward daybreak at
KGON/KSWF.

Light and variable winds tonight pick up from the s/se 5-10 kt
after about 14Z-15Z Sunday. S/SSE seabreeze development expected
Sunday afternoon for all but KSWF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday night...Late night MVFR vsby possible at the terminals
outside of NYC metro, otherwise VFR.
.Monday...VFR.
.Monday Night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Sunday night.
Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels during
this period. There may be some patchy fog late tonight into early
Sunday morning over the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet.
Visibilities are expected to remain above 3 NM.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET



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000
FXUS61 KBTV 252339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 738 PM EDT Saturday...Going forecast in great shape and no
real changes needed at this time. Shallow cumulus over the
mountains continues to decrease in areal coverage and later
tonight it looks like we could see some mid and high level
convective debris clouds from the Upper Midwest roll into our
area, which going forecast has covered well. Otherwise...temperatures
should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but then start to level
off after midnight especially in the Champlain and St. Lawrence
Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a significant variation in
low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s in the Adirondacks to the
lower to mid 60s in the Champlain Valley, with 50s pretty common
east of the Greens. All are about 1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS
and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

On Sunday...ridge of high pressure remains in control with
similar sensible weather conditions to today. The only difference
will be an increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph
in the Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper
50s to low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which
under mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to
low 90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
the period. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by
terrain effects through evening. By Sunday midday, should see
more of a southerly component to the winds which will then
increase to 6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

00Z Monday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto/MV



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000
FXUS61 KBGM 252331
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
731 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend as high pressure
controls our weather. A slow-moving cold front will bring the next
chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT Update...
Forecast is in great shape and no major changes have been made.
The diurnal cu field is slowly dissipating and a few cirrus clouds
are present. Expect mostly clear skies tonight and attm do not
expect fog to develop tonight, the airmass seems too dry for
valley fog.

Previous Forecast Discussion...
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus over the higher
terrain in central NY and northeast PA with less cumulus downwind
from Lake Ontario to the upper Mohawk Valley. Hi res models
including the 12Z NAM 4km, 12km, WRW-ARW, WRF-NMM, RAP and now the
HRRR also show isolated convection forming with the day/s heating.
At 18Z, there were no echoes appearing on radar mosaic at this
time suggesting models are overdoing any afternoon convection. We
will keep a dry forecast.

Tonight, skies will become clear this evening with the loss of
the day`s heating. The atmosphere was dry enough with low enough
dewpoints to preclude significant valley fog formation tonight.

Then for Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will be a little warmer,
especially along the Lake Ontario plain where southwest low-level
flow is more prevalent. Again, model soundings suggest just
cumulus formation as there will be very weak forcing and not a
lot of moisture to work with. So another dry and very warm day
with cumulus formation with insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat for Monday.

Synoptic scale models suggest a wave forming along the front that
will slowly move east of the region by Monday night and
potentially stall out. Model differ widely on how much
precipitation falls back to the north and west of the front so
maintain slight chance to chance pops in grids to cover the model
uncertainty into Tuesday. Used superblend as a starting point and
collaborated with surrounding WFOs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the upper level trough over
the area with some chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is
enough uncertainty so kept a slight chance to chance for
precipitation. Thursday looks dry with high pressure overhead.
Another system will approach the region from the south with
an increasing chance for precipitation later Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure continues to control the weather. Expect another diurnal
cu deck to develop Sun afternoon over the region and dissipate by
sunset. Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then
become southerly around 6 to 12 knots by Sun afternoon.

Due to the combination of a dry airmass and winds right above the
sfc becoming breezy tonight, fog is not expected.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night - Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 252331
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
731 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend as high pressure
controls our weather. A slow-moving cold front will bring the next
chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT Update...
Forecast is in great shape and no major changes have been made.
The diurnal cu field is slowly dissipating and a few cirrus clouds
are present. Expect mostly clear skies tonight and attm do not
expect fog to develop tonight, the airmass seems too dry for
valley fog.

Previous Forecast Discussion...
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus over the higher
terrain in central NY and northeast PA with less cumulus downwind
from Lake Ontario to the upper Mohawk Valley. Hi res models
including the 12Z NAM 4km, 12km, WRW-ARW, WRF-NMM, RAP and now the
HRRR also show isolated convection forming with the day/s heating.
At 18Z, there were no echoes appearing on radar mosaic at this
time suggesting models are overdoing any afternoon convection. We
will keep a dry forecast.

Tonight, skies will become clear this evening with the loss of
the day`s heating. The atmosphere was dry enough with low enough
dewpoints to preclude significant valley fog formation tonight.

Then for Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will be a little warmer,
especially along the Lake Ontario plain where southwest low-level
flow is more prevalent. Again, model soundings suggest just
cumulus formation as there will be very weak forcing and not a
lot of moisture to work with. So another dry and very warm day
with cumulus formation with insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat for Monday.

Synoptic scale models suggest a wave forming along the front that
will slowly move east of the region by Monday night and
potentially stall out. Model differ widely on how much
precipitation falls back to the north and west of the front so
maintain slight chance to chance pops in grids to cover the model
uncertainty into Tuesday. Used superblend as a starting point and
collaborated with surrounding WFOs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the upper level trough over
the area with some chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is
enough uncertainty so kept a slight chance to chance for
precipitation. Thursday looks dry with high pressure overhead.
Another system will approach the region from the south with
an increasing chance for precipitation later Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure continues to control the weather. Expect another diurnal
cu deck to develop Sun afternoon over the region and dissipate by
sunset. Winds will be light and variable through sunrise, then
become southerly around 6 to 12 knots by Sun afternoon.

Due to the combination of a dry airmass and winds right above the
sfc becoming breezy tonight, fog is not expected.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night - Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/KAH
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
the period. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by
terrain effects through evening. By Sunday midday, should see
more of a southerly component to the winds which will then
increase to 6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

00Z Monday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 252325
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
725 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
the period. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by
terrain effects through evening. By Sunday midday, should see
more of a southerly component to the winds which will then
increase to 6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

00Z Monday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto/MV



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBUF 252314
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
714 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will continue to slowly drift east,
providing dry weather and very warm temperatures through the
weekend. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday night
and Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold
front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and much
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and upper 50s
across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

It will be hot on Sunday, with 850mb temperatures forecast to rise to
about +18C which is a couple degrees Celsius warmer than today. This
alone would lead to highs of 4-5 degrees warmer than today, but a
light SSW synoptic flow should lead to warmer temperatures along the
south shores of Lake Ontario due to downsloping and a muted lake
breeze. Expect highs in the lower 90s across the lake plains south
of Lake Ontario, with upper 80s across the interior. The SSW flow
will also result in cooler (but still quite warm) temperatures in
downtown Buffalo and E-NE of the lakes. Otherwise, high pressure
will maintain fair weather and mostly sunny skies outside of some
afternoon cumulus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday Night will likely be the one of the warmest nights we have
seen this year, as warm and moist air will be surging northwards
across the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. Balmy
and breezy southerly flow that will be advecting 60F+ dewpoint air
across the region will keep many locations from falling below 70
degrees for much of the night, with only the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and North Country falling below 65.

The aforementioned front will move into Western NY Sunday night.
Model guidance continues to suggest the potential for showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms as the front crosses the area, however
given the late night timing of the front`s arrival and lack of
strong upper level support, convection may be sporadic in coverage.
With that in mind, have opted to leave pops as chance for now.

The front will continue to cross the forecast area through the
morning hours on Monday. Any convection associated with the front
will continue to shift eastwards through the day, with the best
chances for thunderstorms being across the eastern half of the
forecast area, where frontal passage will most closely correlate
with peak diurnal heating. It is also worth noting that the front
will represent a moisture gradient more than a temperature gradient,
as 850mb temps behind the front will actually be as warm, if not
slightly warmer. With guidance pushing 850mb temps towards +18C
behind the front, we may actually see an even warmer day Monday than
Sunday, particularly across the Genesee valley and Lake Ontario
plain, where gusty southwest winds will push temperatures into the
lower 90s once again, with upper 80s across most other locales.

Is we move into Monday night, a secondary front associated with the
main upper level trough will begin to move into the forecast area
from the Upper Great Lakes. This time the front will be a true cool
front, with 850mb temps falling to +8C by Tuesday night, as the
upper level trough moves overhead. Once again, the timing of the
front`s arrival plus a lack of deep moisture means the frontal
passage will largely be dry, with the bulk of any convection
associated with the front occuring largely to our east on Tuesday,
though a few diurnal instability-driven showers may be possible
Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough moves overhead.

Regarding temperatures, readings will continue to run in the 60s
Monday night ahead of this secondary front, however once the front
moves through, we should experience a distinctively more mild swing
on Tuesday as readings top out in the 70s, with 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday an upper level shortwave trough will pass across the
region. This feature will bring scattered showers across our eastern
zones early. Otherwise cool air associated with the feature will
bring the region afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s with
increasing amounts of sunshine.

Thursday through Friday high pressure from the Midwest will advance
eastward. Dry air associated with this feature will bring abundant
sunshine, light winds and afternoon highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s. While an upper level shortwave will near the region on Friday,
little moisture within the atmosphere will likely result in just
afternoon cumulus clouds, and no rainfall.

Saturday another shortwave will round a longwave trough of low
pressure that is over eastern Canada. This shortwave will have a
little better moisture field to possibly produce afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. Any rainfall next Saturday will likely be upon
lake breezes south of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Erie.

Temperatures aloft at 850 hPa will increase to the mid teens by
Saturday...bringing summer`s warmth back to the Eastern Great Lakes
region with low to mid 80s. Dewpoints will remain bearable by
summer`s standards as they will peak in the upper 50s by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region, providing excellent
forecast confidence in VFR conditions for the 00Z TAF cycle.
Diurnally driven cumulus Sunday afternoon should have cloud bases
around 5-6k ft.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide light synoptic scale winds during the
weekend. Afternoon lake breezes will largely determine wind
direction, but these will be light, generally 10 kts or less.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/TMA
MARINE...APFFEL



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 252307
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 252307
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda high pressure ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard will
remain in control of our weather into Monday with very warm summer
conditions. A series of cold fronts will cross the region late
Monday and Tuesday with the threat of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will build east from the Ohio Valley with fair
weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
At 645pm...Diurnal cu are dissipating and region is under high
pressure at all levels of the atmosphere. Skies will be clear with
light winds for the short summer solstice week night. Some patchy
fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage to out
in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help temperatures to
fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Snyder
NEAR TERM...Snyder/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 252024
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure controlling the weather with a clear sky. Some
patchy fog could develop but very patchy and not enough coverage
to out in forecast. Light winds and clear sky will help
temperatures to fall into the 50s to near 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds south and east of our region and low level
wind flow turns south. There will be gradually increasing surface
dew points and boundary layer temperatures through Monday. A pre
frontal trough is expected to set up Monday afternoon with some
scattered showers and thunderstorms...but instability and shear
are expected to be weak. There are also some indications that the
showers and storms could weaken as they move into eastern NY and
western New England.  Highs Sunday in the 80s to around
90...similar on Monday but maybe a degree or two cooler if there
is some late day cloud cover and scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front and upper energy track into our region
Tuesday but again...instability and shear are not too impressive.
There may be enough instability and shear for some strong
thunderstorms but not wording into forecast until higher
confidence of stronger storms. Highs Tuesday in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term opens unsettled with a cold front slowly progressing
eastward across the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic Region Tue
through Wed.  This will continue the threat for scattered
showers...and thunderstorms with the boundaries slow passage and the
upper level trough axis remaining upstream over the eastern Great
Lakes Region...and the Ohio Valley.  The slow frontal movement is
supported by many of the GEFS...and the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM.  Some of the thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall across
New England based some slightly elevated PWAT values.  Lows Tue
night will be in the 50s to lower 60s...and highs on Wed will likely
be surpressed a bit by the scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys...and 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains and hills.

Wed night into Thu...The Northeast will remain under the influence
of cyclonic flow...but enough subsidence in the wake of the
front...and the upper trough axis should have the showers taper off
WED night...and a drier and more stable air mass builds in for Thu.
H850 temps will be in the +11C to +13C range which are near normal.
High pressure at the sfc will be building in from the Central Plains
and Midwest.  After lows mainly in the 50s...aside for some upper
40s over the southern Adirondacks...and eastern Catskills.  Highs
will be slightly below normal to normal for late June in the upper
70s to lower 80s in the valley locations...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Thu night into Saturday...The nice weather looks to continue a
little longer based on the WPC guidance and medium range model
trends.  High pressure continues to ridge in from the lower OH
Valley and WV for the fair weather to persist in the first day of
July.  Temps will rise slightly into the lower to mid 80s in the
major valleys...and 70s to near 80F over the hills an mtns.  A cold
front and prefrontal sfc trough will be approaching from southeast
Canada and the eastern Great Lakes Region Fri night into Saturday
for the next bonafide chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into Monday. The next
chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next week.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent on Sunday
afternoon and 40 to 60 percent Monday afternoon. Nighttime RH
values should be 80 to 100 percent.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday...and south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251929
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
329 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will continue to slowly drift east,
providing dry weather and very warm temperatures through the
weekend. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday night
and Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold
front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and much
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure extending from New England to the lower lakes
will provide generally fair weather and warm temperatures for the
remainder of this afternoon. Visible satellite shows cumulus clouds
inland of the lake breezes, most prevalent across the Genesee
Valley and western Southern Tier. However the 12Z Buffalo sounding
shows a cap around 775mb which is limiting the vertical growth of
these clouds. Some high resolution guidance develops isolated
convection across the Southern Tier, but dew points early this
afternoon are lower than this guidance forecasts which suggests the
cap is likely to hold and prevent showers from forming. Temperatures
will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across lower
elevations. Local lake breezes will keep areas within a few miles of
Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and upper 50s
across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

It will be hot on Sunday, with 850mb temperatures forecast to rise to
about +18C which is a couple degrees Celsius warmer than today. This
alone would lead to highs of 4-5 degrees warmer than today, but a
light SSW synoptic flow should lead to warmer temperatures along the
south shores of Lake Ontario due to downsloping and a muted lake
breeze. Expect highs in the lower 90s across the lake plains south
of Lake Ontario, with upper 80s across the interior. The SSW flow
will also result in cooler (but still quite warm) temperatures in
downtown Buffalo and E-NE of the lakes. Otherwise, high pressure
will maintain fair weather and mostly sunny skies outside of some
afternoon cumulus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday Night will likely be the one of the warmest nights we have
seen this year, as warm and moist air will be surging northwards
across the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. Balmy
and breezy southerly flow that will be advecting 60F+ dewpoint air
across the region will keep many locations from falling below 70
degrees for much of the night, with only the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and North Country falling below 65.

The aforementioned front will move into Western NY Sunday night.
Model guidance continues to suggest the potential for showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms as the front crosses the area, however
given the late night timing of the front`s arrival and lack of
strong upper level support, convection may be sporadic in coverage.
With that in mind, have opted to leave pops as chance for now.

The front will continue to cross the forecast area through the
morning hours on Monday. Any convection associated with the front
will continue to shift eastwards through the day, with the best
chances for thunderstorms being across the eastern half of the
forecast area, where frontal passage will most closely correlate
with peak diurnal heating. It is also worth noting that the front
will represent a moisture gradient more than a temperature gradient,
as 850mb temps behind the front will actually be as warm, if not
slightly warmer. With guidance pushing 850mb temps towards +18C
behind the front, we may actually see an even warmer day Monday than
Sunday, particularly across the Genesee valley and Lake Ontario
plain, where gusty southwest winds will push temperatures into the
lower 90s once again, with upper 80s across most other locales.

Is we move into Monday night, a secondary front associated with the
main upper level trough will begin to move into the forecast area
from the Upper Great Lakes. This time the front will be a true cool
front, with 850mb temps falling to +8C by Tuesday night, as the
upper level trough moves overhead. Once again, the timing of the
front`s arrival plus a lack of deep moisture means the frontal
passage will largely be dry, with the bulk of any convection
associated with the front occuring largely to our east on Tuesday,
though a few diurnal instability-driven showers may be possible
Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough moves overhead.

Regarding temperatures, readings will continue to run in the 60s
Monday night ahead of this secondary front, however once the front
moves through, we should experience a distinctively more mild swing
on Tuesday as readings top out in the 70s, with 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday an upper level shortwave trough will pass across the
region. This feature will bring scattered showers across our eastern
zones early. Otherwise cool air associated with the feature will
bring the region afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s with
increasing amounts of sunshine.

Thursday through Friday high pressure from the Midwest will advance
eastward. Dry air associated with this feature will bring abundant
sunshine, light winds and afternoon highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s. While an upper level shortwave will near the region on Friday,
little moisture within the atmosphere will likely result in just
afternoon cumulus clouds, and no rainfall.

Saturday another shortwave will round a longwave trough of low
pressure that is over eastern Canada. This shortwave will have a
little better moisture field to possibly produce afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. Any rainfall next Saturday will likely be upon
lake breezes south of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Erie.

Temperatures aloft at 850 hPa will increase to the mid teens by
Saturday...bringing summer`s warmth back to the Eastern Great Lakes
region with low to mid 80s. Dewpoints will remain bearable by
summer`s standards as they will peak in the upper 50s by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region, providing good forecast
confidence in VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. Diurnally driven
cumulus this afternoon and Sunday afternoon should have cloud bases
around 5-6k ft.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide light synoptic scale winds during the
weekend. Afternoon lake breezes will largely determine wind
direction, but these will be light, generally 10 kts or less.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251920
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
320 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night and will
impact the area into Wednesday. Weak high pressure then follows on
Thursday and Friday with the next cold front moving through
sometime next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
An upper trough off the New England coast moves slowly east
tonight as height rise across New England into western
Pennsylvania.Meanwhile surface high pressure remains across the
northeast and midAtlantic regions. With a similar airmass in place
as Friday night/Saturday morning, overnight conditions will be
similar too. Any diurnal cumulus will begin to dissipate toward
sunset with skies becoming clear late this evening. Expect some
patchy fog to develop late tonight with light winds as sea
breezes diminish.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents
at Atlantic Ocean beaches through early this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge remains across the region with the ridge axis from
the lower Hudson Valley into southwestern Pennsylvania. Meanwhile
the upper trough closes off late Sunday and drifts toward the
coast Sunday night as the upper ridge weakens somewhat. At the
surface, the high remains and weakens late Sunday night, drifting
a little south. Overall, conditions will once again be similar to
the past day. Daytime cumulus will build and sea breezes will
quickly develop with a weak pressure gradient force. Patchy fog
possible again Sunday night, and may be a little more extensive,
however, low level moisture increases slightly.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at
Atlantic ocean beaches Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of the front, and some showers/thunderstorms may reach
Orange County by late in the day.

Both trough and front slowly move east Monday night through
Wednesday. Looks like the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
during this period will be Tuesday and Tuesday night with the
best combination of instability, moisture, and lift. Capped POPs
at 50% for now during these 2 periods. Might need to bump up POPs
on Wednesday should the trend of a slower frontal exit continues.

Weak high pressure follows for Thursday and Friday. Looks like
only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm for far western
portions Friday afternoon with the approach of a pre-frontal
trough. Instability diminishes Friday night, so it will likely be
dry. A cold front then moves closer on Saturday with showers and
storms possible.

Temperatures through the long term period will be fairly close to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is possible patchy MVFR development
toward daybreak at some of the terminals outside of NYC metro.

SE-S winds 10 kt or less likely to make it to KLGA by 19Z.
Winds should then diminish quickly after sunset, and resume at
S 5-10 kt after about 14Z-15Z Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday afternoon/night...Late night MVFR vsby possible at the
terminals outside of NYC metro, otherwise VFR.
.Monday...VFR.
.Monday Night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Sunday night.
Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels during
this period. There may be some patchy fog late tonight into early
Sunday morning over the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet.
Visibilities are expected to remain above 3 NM.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251916
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend as high pressure
controls our weather. A slow-moving cold front will bring the next
chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus over the higher
terrain in central NY and northeast PA with less cumulus downwind
from Lake Ontario to the upper Mohawk Valley. Hi res models
including the 12Z NAM 4km, 12km, WRW-ARW, WRF-NMM, RAP and now the
HRRR also show isolated convection forming with the day/s heating.
At 18Z, there were no echoes appearing on radar mosaic at this
time suggesting models are overdoing any afternoon convection. We
will keep a dry forecast.

Tonight, skies will become clear this evening with the loss of
the day`s heating. The atmosphere was dry enough with low enough
dewpoints to preclude significant valley fog formation tonight.

Then for Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will be a little warmer,
especially along the Lake Ontario plain where southwest low-level
flow is more prevalent. Again, model soundings suggest just
cumulus formation as there will be very weak forcing and not a
lot of moisture to work with. So another dry and very warm day
with cumulus formation with insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat for Monday.

Synoptic scale models suggest a wave forming along the front that
will slowly move east of the region by Monday night and
potentially stall out. Model differ widely on how much
precipitation falls back to the north and west of the front so
maintain slight chance to chance pops in grids to cover the model
uncertainity into Tuesday. Used superblend as a starting point
and collaborated with surrounding WFOs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the upper level trough over
the area with some chance for showers and thunderstorms. There is
enough uncertainty so kept a slight chance to chance for
precipitation. Thursday looks dry with high pressure overhead.
Another system will approach the region from the south with
an increasing chance for precipitation later Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
few to scattered in coverage will occur this afternoon. Fog is
not expected again tonight due to dry airmass and lack of
rainfall.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur. Winds will
remain light under 10 knots through 18z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday pm...VFR.

Sunday nightto Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
306 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
18z Sunday. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by terrain
effects through evening. Overnight into Sunday, should see more
of a southerly component to the winds which will then increase to
6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
306 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to remain in control of the weather across the North
Country through Sunday evening. Abundant sunshine, warm
temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s and low humidity levels
should be the rule. Next chances for showers and thunderstorms is
on Monday continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures then trend near to
below normal for the middle to latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...The North Country remains in mid-
level northwesterly flow aloft between a building 500 mb ridge
axis over the Great Lakes and troughing located over the southern
New England coast. A ridge of high pressure will continue to be in
place, support generally clear skies. However some high clouds
well to our northwest over the northern Great Lakes should advect
into our area later this evening. In addition, initially light
surface winds then become more of a light south wind particularly
after midnight. Temps should plummet pretty quickly everywhere but
then start to level off after midnight especially in the Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valley areas. Thus, I`d expect to see a
significant variation in low temperatures from the mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the lower to mid 60s in the Champlain
Valley, with 50s pretty common east of the Greens. All are about
1-2 degrees warmer than 12z MOS and recent GFS LAMP guidance.

Ridge of high pressure remains in control with similar sensible
weather conditions to today. The only difference will be an
increase in south winds (occasional gusts to 20-25 mph in the
Champlain Valley) and a slight uptick in dewpoints (upper 50s to
low 60s). 925 mb temperatures increase to +21 to +23C which under
mostly clear to filtered sun supports highs into the 80s to low
90s, cooler along Lake Champlain. Still generally comfortable
perceived humidity levels with afternoon RH values around 30%.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge across the
eastern CONUS will slowly breakdown as a series of short waves and
associated 5h trof approach the region. The first pre-frontal trof
and embedded 5h vort in the southwest flow aloft arrives by 12z
Saint Lawrence Valley and moves from west to east across our cwa
on Monday. Dynamics are weakening with this system and axis of
enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is very narrow...resulting in a 1
to 3 hour window for mainly showers on Monday. Have noted SPC
place our northern NY in marginal outlook...but best instability
occurs after dynamics and ribbon of mid level moisture shifts to
the east of greatest instability and deep layer shear. Based on
limited instability and timing will mention showers with isolated
thunder on Monday...with highest pops/qpf across northern NY.
Thinking initial band of showers will enhance low level moisture
and result in greater instability parameter across Saint Lawrence
Valley after 18z Monday...but soundings are very dry and upstream
forcing is very weak. A mild night is expected Sunday Night with
developing southerly flow ahead of pre-frontal trough with
readings mainly in the 60s to near 70f Champlain Valley. Highs on
Monday afternoon in the 80s....with increasing surface dwpt values
from expected rain showers will produce some higher humidity
values. Another warm and muggy night is expected on monday with
lows mainly in the 60s to near 70f again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Saturday...Still anticipating an active day on
Tuesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms...with some
uncertainty on the degree of instability. Synoptic scale shows
strong mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes
approaching the Saint Lawrence Valley by 12z Tuesday with a
surface cold front draped over northern NY. The forecast challenge
will be how much surface heating and instability can develop
before clouds and showers develop. Model progs show surface based
CAPE values between 700-1000 J/kg with most unstable values
associated with warmer surface temperatures/higher dwpts between
1000 and 1500 J/kg from the Dacks eastward. Given the available
upper level forcing...a ribbon of 700 to 500mb winds of 35 to 45
knots...creating deep layer 0 to 6 km shear values around 40
knots...some robust updrafts will support scattered stronger
thunderstorms. The best interaction of instability and shear looks
to occur over central and eastern VT...given expected position of
boundary and location of right rear quad of 75 knot jet at 250mb.
The primary focus would be gusty winds and small hail...if current
progged stability and shear profiles verify. Will continue to
mention likely to cat pops central and eastern cwa with scattered
convection...but not mention enhanced wording due to uncertainty
associated with instability. Still plenty of time to determine
areal coverage of clouds and associated impacts on surface heating
and instability along with timing of boundary.

Wednesday...mid/upper level trof axis swings across our region with
associated cool pocket aloft. This energy and leftover moisture will
produce additional scattered showers on Weds...with highest pops
across the mountains. Thermal profiles support slightly below normal
temperatures with readings mainly in the mid/upper 60s mountains to
mid/upper 70s warmer valleys with progged 850mb temps around 11c.

Thursday through Saturday...fast zonal flow aloft with general
mid/upper level trof will continue with weak short wave ridge by
Friday. This supports a dry forecast on Friday with near normal
temps. Latest trends show the potential for a few lingering leftover
showers on Thursday with trof. Another front along with energy aloft
is expected to impact our region on Friday night into Saturday with
additional showers. Plenty of uncertainty on timing and magnitude of
system...so will just mention chance pops at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
18z Sunday. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by terrain
effects through evening. Overnight into Sunday, should see more
of a southerly component to the winds which will then increase to
6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251858
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
258 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will continue to slowly drift east,
providing dry weather and very warm temperatures through the
weekend. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday night
and Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold
front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and much
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure extending from New England to the lower lakes
will provide generally fair weather and warm temperatures for the
remainder of this afternoon. Visible satellite shows cumulus clouds
inland of the lake breezes, most prevalent across the Genesee
Valley and western Southern Tier. However the 12Z Buffalo sounding
shows a cap around 775mb which is limiting the vertical growth of
these clouds. Some high resolution guidance develops isolated
convection across the Southern Tier, but dew points early this
afternoon are lower than this guidance forecasts which suggests the
cap is likely to hold and prevent showers from forming. Temperatures
will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across lower
elevations. Local lake breezes will keep areas within a few miles of
Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and upper 50s
across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

It will be hot on Sunday, with 850mb temperatures forecast to rise to
about +18C which is a couple degrees Celsius warmer than today. This
alone would lead to highs of 4-5 degrees warmer than today, but a
light SSW synoptic flow should lead to warmer temperatures along the
south shores of Lake Ontario due to downsloping and a muted lake
breeze. Expect highs in the lower 90s across the lake plains south
of Lake Ontario, with upper 80s across the interior. The SSW flow
will also result in cooler (but still quite warm) temperatures in
downtown Buffalo and E-NE of the lakes. Otherwise, high pressure
will maintain fair weather and mostly sunny skies outside of some
afternoon cumulus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday Night will likely be the one of the warmest nights we have
seen this year, as warm and moist air will be surging northwards
across the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. Balmy
and breezy southerly flow that will be advecting 60F+ dewpoint air
across the region will keep many locations from falling below 70
degrees for much of the night, with only the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and North Country falling below 65.

The aforementioned front will move into Western NY Sunday night.
Model guidance continues to suggest the potential for showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms as the front crosses the area, however
given the late night timing of the front`s arrival and lack of
strong upper level support, convection may be sporadic in coverage.
With that in mind, have opted to leave pops as chance for now.

The front will continue to cross the forecast area through the
morning hours on Monday. Any convection associated with the front
will continue to shift eastwards through the day, with the best
chances for thunderstorms being across the eastern half of the
forecast area, where frontal passage will most closely correlate
with peak diurnal heating. It is also worth noting that the front
will represent a moisture gradient more than a temperature gradient,
as 850mb temps behind the front will actually be as warm, if not
slightly warmer. With guidance pushing 850mb temps towards +18C
behind the front, we may actually see an even warmer day Monday than
Sunday, particularly across the Genesee valley and Lake Ontario
plain, where gusty southwest winds will push temperatures into the
lower 90s once again, with upper 80s across most other locales.

Is we move into Monday night, a secondary front associated with the
main upper level trough will begin to move into the forecast area
from the Upper Great Lakes. This time the front will be a true cool
front, with 850mb temps falling to +8C by Tuesday night, as the
upper level trough moves overhead. Once again, the timing of the
front`s arrival plus a lack of deep moisture means the frontal
passage will largely be dry, with the bulk of any convection
associated with the front occuring largely to our east on Tuesday,
though a few diurnal instability-driven showers may be possible
Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough moves overhead.

Regarding temperatures, readings will continue to run in the 60s
Monday night ahead of this secondary front, however once the front
moves through, we should experience a distinctively more mild swing
on Tuesday as readings top out in the 70s, with 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region, providing good forecast
confidence in VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. Diurnally driven
cumulus this afternoon and Sunday afternoon should have cloud bases
around 5-6k ft.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide light synoptic scale winds during the
weekend. Afternoon lake breezes will largely determine wind
direction, but these will be light, generally 10 kts or less.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251858
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
258 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will continue to slowly drift east,
providing dry weather and very warm temperatures through the
weekend. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday night
and Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold
front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and much
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure extending from New England to the lower lakes
will provide generally fair weather and warm temperatures for the
remainder of this afternoon. Visible satellite shows cumulus clouds
inland of the lake breezes, most prevalent across the Genesee
Valley and western Southern Tier. However the 12Z Buffalo sounding
shows a cap around 775mb which is limiting the vertical growth of
these clouds. Some high resolution guidance develops isolated
convection across the Southern Tier, but dew points early this
afternoon are lower than this guidance forecasts which suggests the
cap is likely to hold and prevent showers from forming. Temperatures
will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across lower
elevations. Local lake breezes will keep areas within a few miles of
Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and upper 50s
across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

It will be hot on Sunday, with 850mb temperatures forecast to rise to
about +18C which is a couple degrees Celsius warmer than today. This
alone would lead to highs of 4-5 degrees warmer than today, but a
light SSW synoptic flow should lead to warmer temperatures along the
south shores of Lake Ontario due to downsloping and a muted lake
breeze. Expect highs in the lower 90s across the lake plains south
of Lake Ontario, with upper 80s across the interior. The SSW flow
will also result in cooler (but still quite warm) temperatures in
downtown Buffalo and E-NE of the lakes. Otherwise, high pressure
will maintain fair weather and mostly sunny skies outside of some
afternoon cumulus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday Night will likely be the one of the warmest nights we have
seen this year, as warm and moist air will be surging northwards
across the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. Balmy
and breezy southerly flow that will be advecting 60F+ dewpoint air
across the region will keep many locations from falling below 70
degrees for much of the night, with only the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and North Country falling below 65.

The aforementioned front will move into Western NY Sunday night.
Model guidance continues to suggest the potential for showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms as the front crosses the area, however
given the late night timing of the front`s arrival and lack of
strong upper level support, convection may be sporadic in coverage.
With that in mind, have opted to leave pops as chance for now.

The front will continue to cross the forecast area through the
morning hours on Monday. Any convection associated with the front
will continue to shift eastwards through the day, with the best
chances for thunderstorms being across the eastern half of the
forecast area, where frontal passage will most closely correlate
with peak diurnal heating. It is also worth noting that the front
will represent a moisture gradient more than a temperature gradient,
as 850mb temps behind the front will actually be as warm, if not
slightly warmer. With guidance pushing 850mb temps towards +18C
behind the front, we may actually see an even warmer day Monday than
Sunday, particularly across the Genesee valley and Lake Ontario
plain, where gusty southwest winds will push temperatures into the
lower 90s once again, with upper 80s across most other locales.

Is we move into Monday night, a secondary front associated with the
main upper level trough will begin to move into the forecast area
from the Upper Great Lakes. This time the front will be a true cool
front, with 850mb temps falling to +8C by Tuesday night, as the
upper level trough moves overhead. Once again, the timing of the
front`s arrival plus a lack of deep moisture means the frontal
passage will largely be dry, with the bulk of any convection
associated with the front occuring largely to our east on Tuesday,
though a few diurnal instability-driven showers may be possible
Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough moves overhead.

Regarding temperatures, readings will continue to run in the 60s
Monday night ahead of this secondary front, however once the front
moves through, we should experience a distinctively more mild swing
on Tuesday as readings top out in the 70s, with 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region, providing good forecast
confidence in VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. Diurnally driven
cumulus this afternoon and Sunday afternoon should have cloud bases
around 5-6k ft.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide light synoptic scale winds during the
weekend. Afternoon lake breezes will largely determine wind
direction, but these will be light, generally 10 kts or less.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251832
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure in place this morning from coastal northern
New England into western Pennsylvania. Updated through today for
current conditions and trends, raising hourly temperature a little
quicker under full sun.

Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is possible patchy MVFR development
toward daybreak at some of the terminals outside of NYC metro.

SE-S winds 10 kt or less likely to make it to KLGA by 19Z.
Winds should then diminish quickly after sunset, and resume at
S 5-10 kt after about 14Z-15Z Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday afternoon/night...Late night MVFR vsby possible at the
terminals outside of NYC metro, otherwise VFR.
.Monday...VFR.
.Monday Night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast OK, no changes at this time.

High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251832
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure in place this morning from coastal northern
New England into western Pennsylvania. Updated through today for
current conditions and trends, raising hourly temperature a little
quicker under full sun.

Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is possible patchy MVFR development
toward daybreak at some of the terminals outside of NYC metro.

SE-S winds 10 kt or less likely to make it to KLGA by 19Z.
Winds should then diminish quickly after sunset, and resume at
S 5-10 kt after about 14Z-15Z Sunday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday afternoon/night...Late night MVFR vsby possible at the
terminals outside of NYC metro, otherwise VFR.
.Monday...VFR.
.Monday Night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday into Tuesday
night.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast OK, no changes at this time.

High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend as high pressure
controls our weather. A slow-moving cold front will bring the next
chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus over the higher
terrain in central NY and northeast PA with less cumulus downwind
from Lake Ontario to the upper Mohawk Valley. Hi res models
including the 12Z NAM 4km, 12km, WRW-ARW, WRF-NMM, RAP and now the
HRRR also show isolated convection forming with the day/s heating.
At 18Z, there were no echoes appearing on radar mosaic at this
time suggesting models are overdoing any afternoon convection. We
will keep a dry forecast.

Tonight, skies will become clear this evening with the loss of
the day`s heating. The atmosphere was dry enough with low enough
dewpoints to preclude significant valley fog formation tonight.

Then for Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will be a little warmer,
especially along the Lake Ontario plain where southwest low-level
flow is more prevalent. Again, model soundings suggest just
cumulus formation as there will be very weak forcing and not a
lot of moisture to work with. So another dry and very warm day
with cumulus formation with insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shKITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP ift
over NY and PA on Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will
climb to around 23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 80s,
with a few 90 degree readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP front will move
through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with latest models
indicating boundary will be more progressive. Wednesday now looks
mainly dry except for chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western
Catskills. Next chance for convection will be over the weekend as
the upper level trof deepens and cold fronts approach the
northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
few to scattered in coverage will occur this afternoon. Fog is
not expected again tonight due to dry airmass and lack of
rainfall.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur. Winds will
remain light under 10 knots through 18z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday pm...VFR.

Sunday nightto Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend as high pressure
controls our weather. A slow-moving cold front will bring the next
chance for precipitation Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus over the higher
terrain in central NY and northeast PA with less cumulus downwind
from Lake Ontario to the upper Mohawk Valley. Hi res models
including the 12Z NAM 4km, 12km, WRW-ARW, WRF-NMM, RAP and now the
HRRR also show isolated convection forming with the day/s heating.
At 18Z, there were no echoes appearing on radar mosaic at this
time suggesting models are overdoing any afternoon convection. We
will keep a dry forecast.

Tonight, skies will become clear this evening with the loss of
the day`s heating. The atmosphere was dry enough with low enough
dewpoints to preclude significant valley fog formation tonight.

Then for Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will be a little warmer,
especially along the Lake Ontario plain where southwest low-level
flow is more prevalent. Again, model soundings suggest just
cumulus formation as there will be very weak forcing and not a
lot of moisture to work with. So another dry and very warm day
with cumulus formation with insolation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shKITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP ift
over NY and PA on Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will
climb to around 23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 80s,
with a few 90 degree readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP front will move
through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with latest models
indicating boundary will be more progressive. Wednesday now looks
mainly dry except for chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western
Catskills. Next chance for convection will be over the weekend as
the upper level trof deepens and cold fronts approach the
northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
few to scattered in coverage will occur this afternoon. Fog is
not expected again tonight due to dry airmass and lack of
rainfall.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur. Winds will
remain light under 10 knots through 18z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday pm...VFR.

Sunday nightto Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...DJN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251752
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
152 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will continue to slowly drift east,
providing dry weather and very warm temperatures through the
weekend. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday night
and Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold
front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and much
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure ridging from New England back to the lower
lakes will provide fair weather and warm temperatures for the
remainder of this afternoon. Visible satellite shows cumulus
inland of the lake breezes, with this cloud cover most prevalent
across the Genesee Valley and Western Southern Tier. However the
12Z Buffalo sounding shows a cap around 775mb which is limiting
the vertical growth of these clouds. Some high resolution guidance
develops isolated convection across the Southern Tier, but dew
points early this afternoon are lower/drier than this guidance
which suggests it will probably remain dry for the rest of today.
Temperatures will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
across lower elevations. Local lake breezes will keep areas within
a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and upper 50s
across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-summer conditions will be in place by Sunday as the thermal
ridge axis shifts across the region ahead of the next approaching
cold front for Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb temperatures will
surge to the 90th percentile for this time of year, about +18C,
which will translate to low 90s for most locations. The cooler
exceptions will include the lake shores and the city of Buffalo
where the lake breezes will help moderate temperatures keeping highs
in the 80s. The warmest temperatures, in the mid 90s, will of course
be in the downslope Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes
locations, including Rochester. Moisture will also increase ahead of
the approaching front, with dew points near 60F, which will give it
somewhat humid feel, especially in closer proximity to the lakes.

A weak surface low will move through Ontario Sunday night into
Monday morning and will drag a weak cold front across the the
forecast area. Moisture advection and weak frontogensis will act to
produce a broken line of showers that will slowly work across the
region from west to east from Sunday night through Monday morning.
Continued to advertise likely PoPs for this frontal passage. Removed
the mention of thunder overnight as instability continues to look
rather meager and given the overnight timing. As the front continues
eastward into the North Country and central/eastern NY on Monday
thunder chances will increase, however any convection will likely
quickly exit east of the forecast area. Overall rainfall amounts
from this system won`t put much of a dent into our abnormally dry
conditions, with most locations picking up a tenth to a quarter of
an inch or less. Sunday night will be one of the warmest nights of
the forecast period given the breezy, cloudy conditions ahead of and
along the front, lows may struggle to dip into the upper 60s. The
cold air will be rather slow to arrive, and actually the coldest air
holds up until a secondary front arrives Tuesday. Thus 850 mb
temperatures remain in the mid-teens Monday, supporting highs in the
80s.

The secondary cold front arrives Tuesday, ushered in by an upper-
level trough and vort max diving across the Great Lakes. By the time
this wave and associated front arrive, the best moisture will have
been shoved into eastern NY and New England by the preceding front.
Thus shower activity with the frontal passage will rather meager,
with mainly spotty instability showers under the upper-level low
across western NY by Tuesday afternoon. The North Country will be a
bit closer to the better moisture source and could pick up some more
robust showers on Tuesday, especially should the EC solution verify
with keeping that moisture a bit farther back to the west than the
GFS. Otherwise, temperatures take a step back to the mid-70s with
the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region, providing good forecast
confidence in VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. Diurnally driven
cumulus this afternoon and Sunday afternoon should have cloud bases
around 5-6k ft. Otherwise, winds will be driven by lake-breeze
circulations with only light synoptic scale flow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and
possibly a thunderstorm.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide light synoptic scale winds during the
weekend. Afternoon lake breezes will largely determine wind
direction, but these will be light, generally 10 kts or less.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251752
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
152 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will continue to slowly drift east,
providing dry weather and very warm temperatures through the
weekend. A cold front will then cross the region late Sunday night
and Monday with some showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold
front will cross the area Tuesday with a few more showers and much
cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure ridging from New England back to the lower
lakes will provide fair weather and warm temperatures for the
remainder of this afternoon. Visible satellite shows cumulus
inland of the lake breezes, with this cloud cover most prevalent
across the Genesee Valley and Western Southern Tier. However the
12Z Buffalo sounding shows a cap around 775mb which is limiting
the vertical growth of these clouds. Some high resolution guidance
develops isolated convection across the Southern Tier, but dew
points early this afternoon are lower/drier than this guidance
which suggests it will probably remain dry for the rest of today.
Temperatures will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
across lower elevations. Local lake breezes will keep areas within
a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and upper 50s
across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-summer conditions will be in place by Sunday as the thermal
ridge axis shifts across the region ahead of the next approaching
cold front for Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb temperatures will
surge to the 90th percentile for this time of year, about +18C,
which will translate to low 90s for most locations. The cooler
exceptions will include the lake shores and the city of Buffalo
where the lake breezes will help moderate temperatures keeping highs
in the 80s. The warmest temperatures, in the mid 90s, will of course
be in the downslope Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes
locations, including Rochester. Moisture will also increase ahead of
the approaching front, with dew points near 60F, which will give it
somewhat humid feel, especially in closer proximity to the lakes.

A weak surface low will move through Ontario Sunday night into
Monday morning and will drag a weak cold front across the the
forecast area. Moisture advection and weak frontogensis will act to
produce a broken line of showers that will slowly work across the
region from west to east from Sunday night through Monday morning.
Continued to advertise likely PoPs for this frontal passage. Removed
the mention of thunder overnight as instability continues to look
rather meager and given the overnight timing. As the front continues
eastward into the North Country and central/eastern NY on Monday
thunder chances will increase, however any convection will likely
quickly exit east of the forecast area. Overall rainfall amounts
from this system won`t put much of a dent into our abnormally dry
conditions, with most locations picking up a tenth to a quarter of
an inch or less. Sunday night will be one of the warmest nights of
the forecast period given the breezy, cloudy conditions ahead of and
along the front, lows may struggle to dip into the upper 60s. The
cold air will be rather slow to arrive, and actually the coldest air
holds up until a secondary front arrives Tuesday. Thus 850 mb
temperatures remain in the mid-teens Monday, supporting highs in the
80s.

The secondary cold front arrives Tuesday, ushered in by an upper-
level trough and vort max diving across the Great Lakes. By the time
this wave and associated front arrive, the best moisture will have
been shoved into eastern NY and New England by the preceding front.
Thus shower activity with the frontal passage will rather meager,
with mainly spotty instability showers under the upper-level low
across western NY by Tuesday afternoon. The North Country will be a
bit closer to the better moisture source and could pick up some more
robust showers on Tuesday, especially should the EC solution verify
with keeping that moisture a bit farther back to the west than the
GFS. Otherwise, temperatures take a step back to the mid-70s with
the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region, providing good forecast
confidence in VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF cycle. Diurnally driven
cumulus this afternoon and Sunday afternoon should have cloud bases
around 5-6k ft. Otherwise, winds will be driven by lake-breeze
circulations with only light synoptic scale flow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and
possibly a thunderstorm.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide light synoptic scale winds during the
weekend. Afternoon lake breezes will largely determine wind
direction, but these will be light, generally 10 kts or less.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KALY 251746
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming in areas around higher terrain with daytime
heating. There could be a sprinkle or two from some of the clouds
due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to carry in the
forecast.

For this afternoon...High pressure will be directly overhead
across our region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be over New York and New England this afternoon
and slowly slide offshore overnight into tomorrow.

VFR conditions will mainly dominate the next 24 hrs ending
18Z/SUN for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The exception is for some patchy
MVFR/IFR mist or fog that may briefly form between 08Z-13Z at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have forecasted a brief window of MVFR mist at
KGFL/KPOU...and have a small window from 09Z-13Z for IFR
radiational mist/fog at KPSF. The mist/fog should burn off quickly
due to subsidence and strong solar heating.

A few cumulus and few-sct cirrus will be around this afternoon
into early this evening...and the cirrus will persist tomorrow
morning.

The winds will be light from the south to southeast at 5 kts or
less prior to 00Z/SUN...and then will be calm overnight. They will
be light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less late tomorrow
morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251734
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
134 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 133 PM EDT Saturday...Stellar early afternoon conditions
across the North Country with abundant sunshine and temps reaching
into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Due to the lake breeze, temps are
locally cooler along the shore of Lake Champlain and I`ve tried to
account for this in the winds, lowered hourly temps and MaxT grids
in these areas (e.g. Plattsburgh) with this update into the rest
of the afternoon. Otherwise forecast highs look on track into
upper 70s to the mid/upper 80s with no significant changes made.



&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
18z Sunday. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by terrain
effects through evening. Overnight into Sunday, should see more
of a southerly component to the winds which will then increase to
6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251734
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
134 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 133 PM EDT Saturday...Stellar early afternoon conditions
across the North Country with abundant sunshine and temps reaching
into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Due to the lake breeze, temps are
locally cooler along the shore of Lake Champlain and I`ve tried to
account for this in the winds, lowered hourly temps and MaxT grids
in these areas (e.g. Plattsburgh) with this update into the rest
of the afternoon. Otherwise forecast highs look on track into
upper 70s to the mid/upper 80s with no significant changes made.



&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR through the TAF forecast period. High
pressure remains in control producing a few cirrus clouds through
18z Sunday. Winds light/variable and largely influenced by terrain
effects through evening. Overnight into Sunday, should see more
of a southerly component to the winds which will then increase to
6-9 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts Sunday afternoon.

Outlook 18Z Sunday through Thursday...

18Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/brief
IFR as a cold front brings showers and t-storms. Couple storms may
become strong Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

00z Wednesday through Thursday...VFR with nightly occurrence of
IFR/LIFR radiation fog at MPV and SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KALY 251708
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming in areas around higher terrain with daytime
heating. There could be a sprinkle or two from some of the clouds
due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to carry in the
forecast.

For this afternoon...High pressure will be directly overhead
across our region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 251708
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
108 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming in areas around higher terrain with daytime
heating. There could be a sprinkle or two from some of the clouds
due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to carry in the
forecast.

For this afternoon...High pressure will be directly overhead
across our region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251509
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1109 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure in place this morning from coastal northern
New England into western Pennsylvania. Updated through today for
current conditions and trends, raising hourly temperature a little
quicker under full sun.

Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is possible patchy stratus
development late tonight.

Winds had already shifted SE between 14Z-15Z at most NYC metro
coastal sites, and should veer SSE or even S this afternoon,
likely increasing to around or just over 10 kt. Occasional
higher gusts may be possible late this afternoon along the coast.
Exception to the rule will be KLGA which should hold on to an ENE
component off Long Island sound until mid afternoon.
Winds will lighten this evening and overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal
stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or tstm late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower conditions possible
in showers and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower conditions with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast OK, no changes at this time.

High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Goodman/PW
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251438
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1038 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold
front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM update...looks like scattered to locally broken cumulus
will form from the afternoon heating today. Higher resolution
models including the WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and NAM12 suggest some
isolated to scattered deep convection breaks out with the HRRR,
RAP and 4km NAM showing little if anything forming. Will continue
with previous forecasts idea of not having any convection based
on the latest RAP, HRRR and NAM 4km. So we made no significant
changes to grids other than refresh current observations and
blended with neighboring WFOS a little more.

215 AM update...

Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward
the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the
NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s
across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on
Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around
23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures
are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree
readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with latest models indicating boundary will be
more progressive. Wednesday now looks mainly dry except for
chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western Catskills. Next
chance for convection will be over the weekend as the upper level
trof deepens and cold fronts approach the northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon. Fog is not expected again tonight due to dry airmass
and lack of rainfall.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251438
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1038 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold
front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM update...looks like scattered to locally broken cumulus
will form from the afternoon heating today. Higher resolution
models including the WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and NAM12 suggest some
isolated to scattered deep convection breaks out with the HRRR,
RAP and 4km NAM showing little if anything forming. Will continue
with previous forecasts idea of not having any convection based
on the latest RAP, HRRR and NAM 4km. So we made no significant
changes to grids other than refresh current observations and
blended with neighboring WFOS a little more.

215 AM update...

Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward
the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the
NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s
across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on
Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around
23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures
are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree
readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with latest models indicating boundary will be
more progressive. Wednesday now looks mainly dry except for
chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western Catskills. Next
chance for convection will be over the weekend as the upper level
trof deepens and cold fronts approach the northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon. Fog is not expected again tonight due to dry airmass
and lack of rainfall.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251433
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1033 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will
continue to drift slowly east today and become centered along the
east coast Sunday. This will provide a dry weekend with abundant
sunshine and very warm temperatures. A cold front will then cross
the region late Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the area Tuesday
with a few more showers and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Surface high pressure will remain in place from the Great Lakes to
New England this afternoon. Strong subsidence and drying
associated with the high will maintain nearly full sunshine in
most areas. Visible satellite shows just a few diurnal cumulus
across the upper Genesee Valley which should expand across the
Western Southern Tier this afternoon where there is a modest
increase in moisture in the 850-700mb layer. Some of the NAM based
guidance develops isolated convection across the Southern Tier
this afternoon and evening, but this is a result of unrealistic
low level dewpoint pooling in the model, leading to implausible
instability forecasts. With this in mind have kept a dry forecast
regionwide.

The airmass continues to warm day by day, with 850mb temps around
+14C this afternoon supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s at
lower elevations with the dry ground forcing a forecast at or above
the warmest guidance. Local lake breezes will develop and keep areas
within a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and mid to
upper 50s across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-summer conditions will be in place by Sunday as the thermal
ridge axis shifts across the region ahead of the next approaching
cold front for Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb temperatures will
surge to the 90th percentile for this time of year, about +18C,
which will translate to low 90s for most locations. The cooler
exceptions will include the lake shores and the city of Buffalo
where the lake breezes will help moderate temperatures keeping highs
in the 80s. The warmest temperatures, in the mid 90s, will of course
be in the downslope Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes
locations, including Rochester. Moisture will also increase ahead of
the approaching front, with dew points near 60F, which will give it
somewhat humid feel, especially in closer proximity to the lakes.

A weak surface low will move through Ontario Sunday night into
Monday morning and will drag a weak cold front across the the
forecast area. Moisture advection and weak frontogensis will act to
produce a broken line of showers that will slowly work across the
region from west to east from Sunday night through Monday morning.
Continued to advertise likely PoPs for this frontal passage. Removed
the mention of thunder overnight as instability continues to look
rather meager and given the overnight timing. As the front continues
eastward into the North Country and central/eastern NY on Monday
thunder chances will increase, however any convection will likely
quickly exit east of the forecast area. Overall rainfall amounts
from this system won`t put much of a dent into our abnormally dry
conditions, with most locations picking up a tenth to a quarter of
an inch or less. Sunday night will be one of the warmest nights of
the forecast period given the breezy, cloudy conditions ahead of and
along the front, lows may struggle to dip into the upper 60s. The
cold air will be rather slow to arrive, and actually the coldest air
holds up until a secondary front arrives Tuesday. Thus 850 mb
temperatures remain in the mid-teens Monday, supporting highs in the
80s.

The secondary cold front arrives Tuesday, ushered in by an upper-
level trough and vort max diving across the Great Lakes. By the time
this wave and associated front arrive, the best moisture will have
been shoved into eastern NY and New England by the preceding front.
Thus shower activity with the frontal passage will rather meager,
with mainly spotty instability showers under the upper-level low
across western NY by Tuesday afternoon. The North Country will be a
bit closer to the better moisture source and could pick up some more
robust showers on Tuesday, especially should the EC solution verify
with keeping that moisture a bit farther back to the west than the
GFS. Otherwise, temperatures take a step back to the mid-70s with
the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail for the 15Z TAF cycle. High pressure will remain
centered from the Great Lakes to New England today. Clear skies will
be the rule in most areas, with just a few patches of cumulus across
the Southern Tier and Finger lakes with bases of 5-6k feet. The
diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain will dissipate this
evening with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clear skies
overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered from the Great Lakes to New
England today. The light synoptic scale winds and strong
differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop, with
winds becoming onshore during the afternoon at less than 10 knots
with flat wave action. High pressure builds east to the eastern
seaboard Sunday. This will allow SSW flow to develop across the
lower Great Lakes for Sunday with winds still 10 knots or less and
flat wave action.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KALY 251419
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1019 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming around the eastern Catskills and with daytime
heating some scattered clouds will form in all areas of terrain.
Area 12Z soundings show some instability across the region once
daytime highs are reached but very littel moisture and virtually
no low level forcing. There could be a sprinkle or two from some
of the clouds due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to
carry in the forecast.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 251419
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1019 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few clouds forming around the eastern Catskills and with daytime
heating some scattered clouds will form in all areas of terrain.
Area 12Z soundings show some instability across the region once
daytime highs are reached but very littel moisture and virtually
no low level forcing. There could be a sprinkle or two from some
of the clouds due to upslope in higher terrain but not enough to
carry in the forecast.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251408
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1008 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1008 AM EDT Saturday...

Forecast remains in great shape at this point and have just
accounted for current observations in the forecast grids. Ridge
of high pressure High pressure continues to dominate, centered
roughly over Nova Scotia. A few terrain- driven shallow cumulus
are expected this afternoon, but overall an outstanding day
weather- wise to start the weekend. With the high to our east
today, our central and western zones should see a light south to
southwest breeze. Strong insolation combined with 925 mb temps a
couple degrees warmer should push highs into the 80s today, with
upper 80s in the milder valleys today. Low humidity levels as
well. All these ideas already captured by current forecast.

Previous discussion...
High pressure will continue to build into the region during the
day today. Increasing heights and warm air advection will increase
925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the North Country
supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast soundings show
excellent low level mixing which will dry out the low levels and
so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s humidities will
be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing to the
possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with some
sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers less
than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible although
700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a wonderful day
across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR Conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Mostly clear skies and dry weather is expect through the
weekend. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Tuesday...

12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251408
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1008 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1008 AM EDT Saturday...

Forecast remains in great shape at this point and have just
accounted for current observations in the forecast grids. Ridge
of high pressure High pressure continues to dominate, centered
roughly over Nova Scotia. A few terrain- driven shallow cumulus
are expected this afternoon, but overall an outstanding day
weather- wise to start the weekend. With the high to our east
today, our central and western zones should see a light south to
southwest breeze. Strong insolation combined with 925 mb temps a
couple degrees warmer should push highs into the 80s today, with
upper 80s in the milder valleys today. Low humidity levels as
well. All these ideas already captured by current forecast.

Previous discussion...
High pressure will continue to build into the region during the
day today. Increasing heights and warm air advection will increase
925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the North Country
supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast soundings show
excellent low level mixing which will dry out the low levels and
so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s humidities will
be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing to the
possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with some
sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers less
than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible although
700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a wonderful day
across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR Conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Mostly clear skies and dry weather is expect through the
weekend. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Tuesday...

12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal/Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251322
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
922 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure in place this morning from coastal northern
New England into western Pennsylvania. Updated through today for
current conditions and trends, raising hourly temperature a little
quicker under full sun.

Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is possible patchy stratus
development late tonight.

Light NE winds this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening and overnight hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal
stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast ok, no changes at this time.

High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251109
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
709 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

Stratus has dissipated. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with
temperatures right around normal for this time of year. Highs will
top off in the mid to upper 80s in/around NYC and areas west of
the Hudson River, and in the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is possible patchy stratus
development late tonight.

Light NE winds this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening and overnight hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal
stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251109
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
709 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

Stratus has dissipated. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with
temperatures right around normal for this time of year. Highs will
top off in the mid to upper 80s in/around NYC and areas west of
the Hudson River, and in the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is possible patchy stratus
development late tonight.

Light NE winds this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening and overnight hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal
stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS/PW
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 251051
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will
continue to drift slowly east today and become centered along the
east coast Sunday. This will provide a dry weekend with abundant
sunshine and very warm temperatures. A cold front will then cross
the region late Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the area Tuesday
with a few more showers and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The first few visible satellite images of the morning show clear
skies across the bulk of the area, with just a few small patches of
clouds across the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes.

Surface high pressure will remain in place from the Great Lakes to
New England today. Strong subsidence and drying associated with the
high will maintain nearly full sunshine in most areas. A few diurnal
cumulus may develop this afternoon across higher terrain well inland
from the stable lake shadows, especially across the Southern Tier
where a modest increase in moisture in the 850-700mb layer will be
found. Some of the NAM based guidance develops isolated convection
across the Southern Tier this afternoon and evening, but this is a
result of unrealistic low level dewpoint pooling in the model,
leading to implausible instability forecasts. With this in mind have
kept a dry forecast regionwide.

The airmass continues to warm day by day, with 850mb temps around
+14C this afternoon supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s at
lower elevations with the dry ground forcing a forecast at or above
the warmest guidance. Local lake breezes will develop and keep areas
within a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and mid to
upper 50s across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-summer conditions will be in place by Sunday as the thermal
ridge axis shifts across the region ahead of the next approaching
cold front for Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb temperatures will
surge to the 90th percentile for this time of year, about +18C,
which will translate to low 90s for most locations. The cooler
exceptions will include the lake shores and the city of Buffalo
where the lake breezes will help moderate temperatures keeping highs
in the 80s. The warmest temperatures, in the mid 90s, will of course
be in the downslope Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes
locations, including Rochester. Moisture will also increase ahead of
the approaching front, with dew points near 60F, which will give it
somewhat humid feel, especially in closer proximity to the lakes.

A weak surface low will move through Ontario Sunday night into
Monday morning and will drag a weak cold front across the the
forecast area. Moisture advection and weak frontogensis will act to
produce a broken line of showers that will slowly work across the
region from west to east from Sunday night through Monday morning.
Continued to advertise likely PoPs for this frontal passage. Removed
the mention of thunder overnight as instability continues to look
rather meager and given the overnight timing. As the front continues
eastward into the North Country and central/eastern NY on Monday
thunder chances will increase, however any convection will likely
quickly exit east of the forecast area. Overall rainfall amounts
from this system won`t put much of a dent into our abnormally dry
conditions, with most locations picking up a tenth to a quarter of
an inch or less. Sunday night will be one of the warmest nights of
the forecast period given the breezy, cloudy conditions ahead of and
along the front, lows may struggle to dip into the upper 60s. The
cold air will be rather slow to arrive, and actually the coldest air
holds up until a secondary front arrives Tuesday. Thus 850 mb
temperatures remain in the mid-teens Monday, supporting highs in the
80s.

The secondary cold front arrives Tuesday, ushered in by an upper-
level trough and vort max diving across the Great Lakes. By the time
this wave and associated front arrive, the best moisture will have
been shoved into eastern NY and New England by the preceding front.
Thus shower activity with the frontal passage will rather meager,
with mainly spotty instability showers under the upper-level low
across western NY by Tuesday afternoon. The North Country will be a
bit closer to the better moisture source and could pick up some more
robust showers on Tuesday, especially should the EC solution verify
with keeping that moisture a bit farther back to the west than the
GFS. Otherwise, temperatures take a step back to the mid-70s with
the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail for the 12Z TAF cycle. High pressure will remain
centered from the Great Lakes to New England today. Clear skies will
be the rule in most areas, with just a few patches of cumulus across
the Southern Tier and Finger lakes with bases of 5-6k feet. The
diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain will dissipate this
evening with the loss of daytime heating, leaving clear skies
overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered from the Great Lakes to New
England today. The light synoptic scale winds and strong
differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop, with
winds becoming onshore during the afternoon at less than 10 knots
with flat wave action. High pressure builds east to the eastern
seaboard Sunday. This will allow SSW flow to develop across the
lower Great Lakes for Sunday with winds still 10 knots or less and
flat wave action.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251045
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 525 AM EDT Saturday...
Went ahead and cleaned up the weather grids... Even with 1 and 2
degree dewpoint depressions there hasn`t been much in the way of
fog development so I removed mention of fog from the forecast for
the rest of this morning. Temp and dewpoints have been in good
shape through the evening and the rest of the forecast remains
unchanged.

Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to build into
the region during the day today. Increasing heights and warm air
advection will increase 925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the
North Country supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast
soundings show excellent low level mixing which will dry out the
low levels and so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s
humidities will be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing
to the possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with
some sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers
less than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible
although 700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a
wonderful day across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR Conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Mostly clear skies and dry weather is expect through the
weekend. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Tuesday...

12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 251045
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 525 AM EDT Saturday...
Went ahead and cleaned up the weather grids... Even with 1 and 2
degree dewpoint depressions there hasn`t been much in the way of
fog development so I removed mention of fog from the forecast for
the rest of this morning. Temp and dewpoints have been in good
shape through the evening and the rest of the forecast remains
unchanged.

Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to build into
the region during the day today. Increasing heights and warm air
advection will increase 925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the
North Country supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast
soundings show excellent low level mixing which will dry out the
low levels and so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s
humidities will be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing
to the possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with
some sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers
less than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible
although 700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a
wonderful day across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR Conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Mostly clear skies and dry weather is expect through the
weekend. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Tuesday...

12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 251038
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold
front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM update...

Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward
the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the
NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s
across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on
Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around
23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures
are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree
readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with latest models indicating boundary will be
more progressive. Wednesday now looks mainly dry except for
chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western Catskills. Next
chance for convection will be over the weekend as the upper level
trof deepens and cold fronts approach the northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon. Fog is not expected again tonight due to dry airmass
and lack of rainfall.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and associated
brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KALY 251028
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
628 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 615 AM EDT...Clear skies and seasonable conditions
prevailed across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in
control. Just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some passing
high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

With slightly greater low level moisture expected tonight, some
radiation fog will be possible at KGFL/KPSF starting around 08Z
Sunday. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions are possible with any fog.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
12Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 251018
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
618 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

Stratus continues to dissipate this morning as it lifts north
along the NJ coast. Fog did not materialize, so the mention of
patchy fog was removed.

Otherwise...mostly sunny skies with temperatures right around
normal for this time of year. Highs will top off in the mid to
upper 80s in/around NYC and areas west of the Hudson River, and in
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is patchy stratus early this
morning.

Satellite indicates patchy stratus extending into portions of
Long Island. Brief IFR through 12Z possible as a result.
Otherwise, few clouds and VFR expected.

Light NE winds early this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Late tonight-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning
coastal stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KALY 251015
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
615 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 615 AM EDT...Clear skies and seasonable conditions
prevailed across the forecast area early this morning with
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250927
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
527 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 525 AM EDT Saturday...
Went ahead and cleaned up the weather grids... Even with 1 and 2
degree dewpoint depressions there hasn`t been much in the way of
fog development so I removed mention of fog from the forecast for
the rest of this morning. Temp and dewpoints have been in good
shape through the evening and the rest of the forecast remains
unchanged.

Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to build into
the region during the day today. Increasing heights and warm air
advection will increase 925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the
North Country supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast
soundings show excellent low level mixing which will dry out the
low levels and so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s
humidities will be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing
to the possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with
some sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers
less than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible
although 700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a
wonderful day across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions through the period. With
northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few high clouds that
move through the area this afternoon but otherwise clear skies and
light winds are expected to prevail through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Tuesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250831
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will
continue to drift slowly east today and become centered along the
east coast Sunday. This will provide a dry weekend with abundant
sunshine and very warm temperatures. A cold front will then cross
the region late Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the area Tuesday
with a few more showers and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR satellite imagery showing clear skies for the bulk of the area
early this morning, and expect the clear skies to last through the
morning hours.

Surface high pressure will remain in place from the Great Lakes to
New England today. Strong subsidence and drying associated with the
high will maintain nearly full sunshine in most areas. A few diurnal
cumulus may develop this afternoon across higher terrain well inland
from the stable lake shadows, especially across the Southern Tier
where a modest increase in moisture in the 850-700mb layer will be
found. Some of the NAM based guidance develops isolated convection
across the Southern Tier this afternoon and evening, but this is a
result of unrealistic low level dewpoint pooling in the model,
leading to implausible instability forecasts. With this in mind have
kept a dry forecast regionwide.

The airmass continues to warm day by day, with 850mb temps around
+14C this afternoon supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s at
lower elevations with the dry ground forcing a forecast at or above
the warmest guidance. Local lake breezes will develop and keep areas
within a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and mid to
upper 50s across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-summer conditions will be in place by Sunday as the thermal
ridge axis shifts across the region ahead of the next approaching
cold front for Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb temperatures will
surge to the 90th percentile for this time of year, about +18C,
which will translate to low 90s for most locations. The cooler
exceptions will include the lake shores and the city of Buffalo
where the lake breezes will help moderate temperatures keeping highs
in the 80s. The warmest temperatures, in the mid 90s, will of course
be in the downslope Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes
locations, including Rochester. Moisture will also increase ahead of
the approaching front, with dew points near 60F, which will give it
somewhat humid feel, especially in closer proximity to the lakes.

A weak surface low will move through Ontario Sunday night into
Monday morning and will drag a weak cold front across the the
forecast area. Moisture advection and weak frontogensis will act to
produce a broken line of showers that will slowly work across the
region from west to east from Sunday night through Monday morning.
Continued to advertise likely PoPs for this frontal passage. Removed
the mention of thunder overnight as instability continues to look
rather meager and given the overnight timing. As the front continues
eastward into the North Country and central/eastern NY on Monday
thunder chances will increase, however any convection will likely
quickly exit east of the forecast area. Overall rainfall amounts
from this system won`t put much of a dent into our abnormally dry
conditions, with most locations picking up a tenth to a quarter of
an inch or less. Sunday night will be one of the warmest nights of
the forecast period given the breezy, cloudy conditions ahead of and
along the front, lows may struggle to dip into the upper 60s. The
cold air will be rather slow to arrive, and actually the coldest air
holds up until a secondary front arrives Tuesday. Thus 850 mb
temperatures remain in the mid-teens Monday, supporting highs in the
80s.

The secondary cold front arrives Tuesday, ushered in by an upper-
level trough and vort max diving across the Great Lakes. By the time
this wave and associated front arrive, the best moisture will have
been shoved into eastern NY and New England by the preceding front.
Thus shower activity with the frontal passage will rather meager,
with mainly spotty instability showers under the upper-level low
across western NY by Tuesday afternoon. The North Country will be a
bit closer to the better moisture source and could pick up some more
robust showers on Tuesday, especially should the EC solution verify
with keeping that moisture a bit farther back to the west than the
GFS. Otherwise, temperatures take a step back to the mid-70s with
the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail for the 06Z TAF cycle. High pressure will remain
centered from the Great Lakes to New England today. Clear skies will
be the rule in most areas, with just a few patches of cumulus across
the Southern Tier and Finger lakes with bases of 5-6k feet.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered from the Great Lakes to New
England today. The light synoptic scale winds and strong
differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop, with
winds becoming onshore during the afternoon at less than 10 knots
with flat wave action. High pressure builds east to the eastern
seaboard Sunday. This will allow SSW flow to develop across the
lower Great Lakes for Sunday with winds still 10 knots or less and
flat wave action.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250831
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will
continue to drift slowly east today and become centered along the
east coast Sunday. This will provide a dry weekend with abundant
sunshine and very warm temperatures. A cold front will then cross
the region late Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the area Tuesday
with a few more showers and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR satellite imagery showing clear skies for the bulk of the area
early this morning, and expect the clear skies to last through the
morning hours.

Surface high pressure will remain in place from the Great Lakes to
New England today. Strong subsidence and drying associated with the
high will maintain nearly full sunshine in most areas. A few diurnal
cumulus may develop this afternoon across higher terrain well inland
from the stable lake shadows, especially across the Southern Tier
where a modest increase in moisture in the 850-700mb layer will be
found. Some of the NAM based guidance develops isolated convection
across the Southern Tier this afternoon and evening, but this is a
result of unrealistic low level dewpoint pooling in the model,
leading to implausible instability forecasts. With this in mind have
kept a dry forecast regionwide.

The airmass continues to warm day by day, with 850mb temps around
+14C this afternoon supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s at
lower elevations with the dry ground forcing a forecast at or above
the warmest guidance. Local lake breezes will develop and keep areas
within a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and mid to
upper 50s across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-summer conditions will be in place by Sunday as the thermal
ridge axis shifts across the region ahead of the next approaching
cold front for Sunday night into Monday. 850 mb temperatures will
surge to the 90th percentile for this time of year, about +18C,
which will translate to low 90s for most locations. The cooler
exceptions will include the lake shores and the city of Buffalo
where the lake breezes will help moderate temperatures keeping highs
in the 80s. The warmest temperatures, in the mid 90s, will of course
be in the downslope Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes
locations, including Rochester. Moisture will also increase ahead of
the approaching front, with dew points near 60F, which will give it
somewhat humid feel, especially in closer proximity to the lakes.

A weak surface low will move through Ontario Sunday night into
Monday morning and will drag a weak cold front across the the
forecast area. Moisture advection and weak frontogensis will act to
produce a broken line of showers that will slowly work across the
region from west to east from Sunday night through Monday morning.
Continued to advertise likely PoPs for this frontal passage. Removed
the mention of thunder overnight as instability continues to look
rather meager and given the overnight timing. As the front continues
eastward into the North Country and central/eastern NY on Monday
thunder chances will increase, however any convection will likely
quickly exit east of the forecast area. Overall rainfall amounts
from this system won`t put much of a dent into our abnormally dry
conditions, with most locations picking up a tenth to a quarter of
an inch or less. Sunday night will be one of the warmest nights of
the forecast period given the breezy, cloudy conditions ahead of and
along the front, lows may struggle to dip into the upper 60s. The
cold air will be rather slow to arrive, and actually the coldest air
holds up until a secondary front arrives Tuesday. Thus 850 mb
temperatures remain in the mid-teens Monday, supporting highs in the
80s.

The secondary cold front arrives Tuesday, ushered in by an upper-
level trough and vort max diving across the Great Lakes. By the time
this wave and associated front arrive, the best moisture will have
been shoved into eastern NY and New England by the preceding front.
Thus shower activity with the frontal passage will rather meager,
with mainly spotty instability showers under the upper-level low
across western NY by Tuesday afternoon. The North Country will be a
bit closer to the better moisture source and could pick up some more
robust showers on Tuesday, especially should the EC solution verify
with keeping that moisture a bit farther back to the west than the
GFS. Otherwise, temperatures take a step back to the mid-70s with
the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The coolest air settles over the region by Wednesday, with 850 mb
temps down to about +9/+10C which will bring highs in the low 70s
for most. The EC remains a bit stronger with the forecast upper-
level low and thus lingering instability showers are possible
especially over the higher terrain.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail for the 06Z TAF cycle. High pressure will remain
centered from the Great Lakes to New England today. Clear skies will
be the rule in most areas, with just a few patches of cumulus across
the Southern Tier and Finger lakes with bases of 5-6k feet.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered from the Great Lakes to New
England today. The light synoptic scale winds and strong
differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop, with
winds becoming onshore during the afternoon at less than 10 knots
with flat wave action. High pressure builds east to the eastern
seaboard Sunday. This will allow SSW flow to develop across the
lower Great Lakes for Sunday with winds still 10 knots or less and
flat wave action.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250811
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...
High pressure will continue to build into the region during the
day today. Increasing heights and warm air advection will increase
925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the North Country
supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast soundings show
excellent low level mixing which will dry out the low levels and
so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s humidities will
be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing to the
possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with some
sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers less
than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible although
700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a wonderful day
across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected to prevail
through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Tuesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250811
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...
High pressure will continue to build into the region during the
day today. Increasing heights and warm air advection will increase
925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the North Country
supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast soundings show
excellent low level mixing which will dry out the low levels and
so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s humidities will
be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing to the
possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with some
sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers less
than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible although
700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a wonderful day
across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will remain
in control of the weather Sunday and Sunday night, with fair and
dry weather. High temperatures on Sunday in valley locations will
be around 90, with 80s over the remainder of the north country. On
Monday, a weakening prefrontal trough will move into the region
during the day on Monday, with a chance of rain showers. Will
continue with a chance of showers into Monday night. High
temperatures on Monday will not be as warm as Sunday, due to
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east from the eastern Great Lakes into the region. Looks like a
better chance for more organized convection on Tuesday, especially
from the Champlain valley eastward. 0-6 km bulk shear values
increase to 40-45 knots across most of the region, with surface
based cape values of around 1500 j/kg or greater east of the
Champlain valley. Models also show sharp upper trough to move east
from the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday as well. Have kept in
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms from the Champlain
valley eastward. Will keep in a chance of showers Wednesday and
Wednesday night as an upper trough moves across the region. A weak
ridge of high pressure will bring fair and dry weather to the
north country Thursday and Thursday night. Have stuck with
superblend pops and will go with slight or low chance pops for
showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected to prevail
through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Tuesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 250745
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For Today...High pressure will be directly overhead across our
region providing sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will
range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By late tonight the ridge of high pressure will drift off the
Atlantic seaboard setting up a return flow of even warmer air for
Sunday. Expect lows tonight to be in the 50s to lower 60s with
highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

Fair weather will continue across much of the forecast area Sunday
night although there will be a chance for some showers late at
night across the western Adirondacks as a weakening cold front
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes region. Lows Sunday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
region as we go from Monday into Monday night. A stronger cold
front is expected to move into the region from the Great Lakes
late Monday night bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.
MLMUCAPES are only a few hundred J/KG and best dynamics remain
well off to the north and west, so not expecting any severe
weather through Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the upper
70s to upper 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Tuesday with a slow moving cold front
draped across the region. This will result in at least scattered
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms for much of the area.
The cold front will linger over the region Tuesday night and
possibly into Wednesday, as an upper level trough digs across the
eastern Great Lakes resulting in southwest flow aloft parallel to
the front. The ECMWF continues to show the slowest progression of
the upper trough and surface cold front, while the GFS is much
faster in pushing these features through by Wednesday. The CMC is
generally in between. Since the GFS has trended slightly slower,
will continue to lean towards the ECMWF and indicate chance pops
through Wednesday. Temperatures look to be near normal through
midweek, but with slightly warmer overnight lows and cooler daytime
highs due to expected clouds. Coverage of thunder will depend on
eventual instability and if/when breaks of sunshine occur.

A few showers may linger into Wednesday night, especially for areas
east of the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, another stretch of dry weather
is expected from late Wednesday night through at least Thursday
night as weak high pressure builds into the region. Friday could end
up being mainly dry as well, although some isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection will be possible as the upper level
flow regime is forecast to become more cyclonic. Temperatures look
to be near normal to close out the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent again on Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250736
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...
High pressure will continue to build into the region during the
day today. Increasing heights and warm air advection will increase
925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the North Country
supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast soundings show
excellent low level mixing which will dry out the low levels and
so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s humidities will
be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing to the
possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with some
sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers less
than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible although
700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a wonderful day
across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected to prevail
through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Tuesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250736
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the weekend as quiet weather and warming
temperatures move in. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s will be
possible Sunday and similarly to last week humidity will be be low.
Expect a pattern change beginning early next week as a frontal
system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...
High pressure will continue to build into the region during the
day today. Increasing heights and warm air advection will increase
925mb temps will warm to 19-21C across the North Country
supporting temps in the upper 80s. Forecast soundings show
excellent low level mixing which will dry out the low levels and
so even with temps warming to the mid to upper 80s humidities will
be on the lower side. Hires guidance is pointing to the
possibility of some orographically forced cloud cover with some
sprinkles falling out of those clouds. With froude numbers less
than 0.5 and the northwesterly flow blocked its possible although
700mb RH is forecast to be around 50-60%. Expect a wonderful day
across the North Country starting your weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected to prevail
through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Tuesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250717
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
317 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold
front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM update...

Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward
the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the
NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s
across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on
Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around
23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures
are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree
readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with latest models indicating boundary will be
more progressive. Wednesday now looks mainly dry except for
chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western Catskills. Next
chance for convection will be over the weekend as the upper level
trof deepens and cold fronts approach the northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250717
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
317 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold
front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM update...

Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward
the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the
NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s
across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on
Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around
23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures
are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree
readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 AM Update...Current forecast in good shape with just minor
adjustments made. Cold front will move through the region Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with latest models indicating boundary will be
more progressive. Wednesday now looks mainly dry except for
chc/slight chc pops primarily in the western Catskills. Next
chance for convection will be over the weekend as the upper level
trof deepens and cold fronts approach the northeast.

245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH/RRM
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250710
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
310 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday. High pressure will follow from the
west on Thursday. A frontal system may begin to approach on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridge builds in from the west today. Meanwhile, one
area of surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine will continue
to push offshore as another area of high pressure over the eastern
Great Lakes moves into western NY/PA.

Some stratus has lifted along the coast and into western Long
Island, and that stratus should dissipate after sunrise.

Mostly sunny skies with temperatures right around normal for this
time of year. Highs will top off in the mid to upper 80s in/around
NYC and areas west of the Hudson River, and in the low to mid 80s
elsewhere.

With an increasing E-SE flow along the coasts, there is a
moderate risk for the development of rip currents at Atlantic
Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridge and surface high pressure continues to build east and
will be overhead on Sunday before moving offshore Sunday night.

With light onshore flow tonight, can expect patchy fog to develop
across mainly eastern CT and Long Island.

Sunday will feature continued sunshine with slightly warmer
temperatures. Afternoon sea breezes are likely at coastal areas.

Mainly clear skies will continue Sunday night. Lows will drop
into the mid and upper 60s in/around NYC, and in the low 60s most
elsewhere. Some outlying areas will drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues to move offshore on Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west. A pre-frontal trough will develop
ahead of that front, and some showers/thunderstorms may nose into
far western areas Monday afternoon. Based on latest model
guidance, the bulk of the activity will hold off until Monday
night.

Showers and thunderstorms will then increase over the area
Tuesday through Wednesday as that front works its way through the
Northeast. Meanwhile, low pressure looks to develop just south of
the area Tuesday, and will lift NE through the region Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning.

For now, will carry chance pops Monday night through Wednesday.
Precip should taper off Wednesday evening, and then dry conditions
return Wednesday night.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for the first
half of the week, then will be closer to normal for the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with generally VFR through
the TAF period. Only exception is patchy stratus early this
morning.

Satellite indicates patchy stratus extending into portions of
Long Island. Brief IFR through 12Z possible as a result.
Otherwise, few clouds and VFR expected.

Light NE winds early this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Late tonight-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning
coastal stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
Sunday. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels during this period. Patchy fog may develop on the eastern
waters late tonight through Sunday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters for the new
week. Thunderstorms may pose local hazards Tuesday through
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions through at least Monday.

A slow moving cold front will pass through the region Monday
night through Wednesday. In general, up to 1/2 inch basin average
QPF possible, but locally higher amounts are possible in
thunderstorms, especially where there is training of
thunderstorms.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250622
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold
front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM update...

Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward
the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the
NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s
across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on
Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around
23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures
are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree
readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250622
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
222 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue this weekend, before a cold
front ushers in a few thunderstorms early Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
215 AM update...

Warm high pressure ridging into the Ohio Valley will expand toward
the Great Lakes today. The 21c 925 mb isotherm will extend to the
NY/PA border as daytime highs climb into the lower and middle 80s
across our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

The axis of the high pressure ridge will shift over NY and PA on
Sunday. As a result, 925 mb temperatures will climb to around
23-24c, setting the stage for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures
are forecast to climb into the upper 80s, with a few 90 degree
readings possible.

A slow moving cold front will approach early Monday. The front
lacks ample moisture, and the mid levels remain pretty warm on the
model soundings. Scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front
approaches, but the lack of instability points to a negligible
severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250544
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...
A quiet evening on tap as high pressure builds in through the
evening. Forecast is in good shape with no changes needed.

previous discussion...High pressure in place overnight. Mainly
clear skies combined with a dry low-level air mass (2-m dewpoints
mostly in the mid-upr 40s areawide) and light winds will
contribute to good radiational cooling conditions overnight.
Anticipate early A.M. low temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s, coolest
across the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Should see fog return
at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the favored river valleys
east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be a
little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog will
be dissipating shortly after sunrise. PoPs nil overnight.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected to prevail
through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Tuesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250544
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 140 AM EDT Saturday...
A quiet evening on tap as high pressure builds in through the
evening. Forecast is in good shape with no changes needed.

previous discussion...High pressure in place overnight. Mainly
clear skies combined with a dry low-level air mass (2-m dewpoints
mostly in the mid-upr 40s areawide) and light winds will
contribute to good radiational cooling conditions overnight.
Anticipate early A.M. low temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s, coolest
across the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Should see fog return
at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the favored river valleys
east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be a
little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog will
be dissipating shortly after sunrise. PoPs nil overnight.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. With northwest flow aloft, there will likely be a few
high clouds that move through the area this afternoon but
otherwise clear skies and light winds are expected to prevail
through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Tuesday...

06Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.

18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Deal/MV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250536
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
136 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Updated at 9 pm... current forecast in good shape. Sct-bkn ac
clouds lingering over northeast pa are remnants of scattered
convection over eastern Pa earlier today. These clouds should
dissipate overnight with clear skies and light winds allowing for
temperatures to fall into the 50s. Atmosphere is quite dry and as
such not much river valley fog is expected. Previous discussion is
below.

Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period as high
pressure remain anchored over the area. Diurnal cumulus mainly
scattered in coverage will occur over KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP this
afternoon.

Winds will primarily be light and variable although this afternoon
during peak heating southwest at 5 knots may occur.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog restrictions for
KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...RRM




000
FXUS61 KALY 250526
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Mainly clear and mild conditions prevailed
across the forecast area with temperatures in the mid 50s to upper
60s.

Lows tonight will not be as cool a previous nights. Looking for
temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. There may also be some
patchy fog around toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 250526
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Mainly clear and mild conditions prevailed
across the forecast area with temperatures in the mid 50s to upper
60s.

Lows tonight will not be as cool a previous nights. Looking for
temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. There may also be some
patchy fog around toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF
period ending 06Z Sunday with high pressure remaining in control.
There is a slight chance of fog formation at KGFL/KPSF early this
morning before sunrise, but confidence is too low to mention in
TAFs. Otherwise, just a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some
passing high level cirrus clouds will be around today.

Winds will be variable or southeast around 5 kt or less through
06Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250516
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
116 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will
continue to drift slowly east today and become centered along the
east coast Sunday. This will provide a dry weekend with abundant
sunshine and very warm temperatures. A cold front will then cross
the region late Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the area Tuesday
with a few more showers and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR satellite imagery showing clear skies for the bulk of the area
early this morning, with just a few patchy clouds across the western
Southern Tier. Expect this to continue through the morning hours,
with any limited cloud cover restricted to the Southern Tier.

Surface high pressure will remain in place from the Great Lakes to
New England today. Strong subsidence and drying associated with the
high will maintain nearly full sunshine in most areas. A few diurnal
cumulus may develop this afternoon across higher terrain well inland
from the stable lake shadows, especially across the Southern Tier
where a modest increase in moisture in the 850-700mb layer will be
found. Some of the NAM based guidance develops isolated convection
across the Southern Tier this afternoon and evening, but this is a
result of unrealistic low level dewpoint pooling in the model,
leading to implausible instability forecasts. With this in mind have
kept a dry forecast regionwide.

The airmass continues to warm day by day, with 850mb temps around
+14C this afternoon supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s at
lower elevations with the dry ground forcing a forecast at or above
the warmest guidance. Local lake breezes will develop and keep areas
within a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and mid to
upper 50s across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Sunday through Monday night.

Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge will cross overhead
Sunday and Sunday Night. Low level warm air advection will be in
place Sunday. This will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in
most locations, with the usual colder spots along immediate
lakeshores and to a lesser extent over the highest terrain. The
still relatively low dewpoints near 60F will give the airmass a
somewhat dry feel when compared the more classic summertime
hazy/hot/humid days. Any convection potential looks rather
unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to remain
quite dry per point sounding locations. This together with meager
instability and no forcing except along lake breeze boundaries
should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail for the 06Z TAF cycle. High pressure will remain
centered from the Great Lakes to New England today. Clear skies will
be the rule in most areas, with just a few patches of cumulus across
the Southern Tier and Finger lakes with bases of 5-6k feet.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered from the Great Lakes to New
England today. The light synoptic scale winds and strong
differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop, with
winds becoming onshore during the afternoon at less than 10 knots
with flat wave action. High pressure builds east to the eastern
seaboard Sunday. This will allow SSW flow to develop across the
lower Great Lakes for Sunday with winds still 10 knots or less and
flat wave action.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250516
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
116 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to New England will
continue to drift slowly east today and become centered along the
east coast Sunday. This will provide a dry weekend with abundant
sunshine and very warm temperatures. A cold front will then cross
the region late Sunday night and Monday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the area Tuesday
with a few more showers and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR satellite imagery showing clear skies for the bulk of the area
early this morning, with just a few patchy clouds across the western
Southern Tier. Expect this to continue through the morning hours,
with any limited cloud cover restricted to the Southern Tier.

Surface high pressure will remain in place from the Great Lakes to
New England today. Strong subsidence and drying associated with the
high will maintain nearly full sunshine in most areas. A few diurnal
cumulus may develop this afternoon across higher terrain well inland
from the stable lake shadows, especially across the Southern Tier
where a modest increase in moisture in the 850-700mb layer will be
found. Some of the NAM based guidance develops isolated convection
across the Southern Tier this afternoon and evening, but this is a
result of unrealistic low level dewpoint pooling in the model,
leading to implausible instability forecasts. With this in mind have
kept a dry forecast regionwide.

The airmass continues to warm day by day, with 850mb temps around
+14C this afternoon supporting highs in the mid to upper 80s at
lower elevations with the dry ground forcing a forecast at or above
the warmest guidance. Local lake breezes will develop and keep areas
within a few miles of Lakes Erie and Ontario cooler.

High pressure will drift to New England tonight. This will keep
mainly clear skies in place. The developing weak southerly return
flow will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights, with
lows in the mid 60s on the lake plains of western NY, and mid to
upper 50s across the interior Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Sunday through Monday night.

Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge will cross overhead
Sunday and Sunday Night. Low level warm air advection will be in
place Sunday. This will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in
most locations, with the usual colder spots along immediate
lakeshores and to a lesser extent over the highest terrain. The
still relatively low dewpoints near 60F will give the airmass a
somewhat dry feel when compared the more classic summertime
hazy/hot/humid days. Any convection potential looks rather
unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to remain
quite dry per point sounding locations. This together with meager
instability and no forcing except along lake breeze boundaries
should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail for the 06Z TAF cycle. High pressure will remain
centered from the Great Lakes to New England today. Clear skies will
be the rule in most areas, with just a few patches of cumulus across
the Southern Tier and Finger lakes with bases of 5-6k feet.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered from the Great Lakes to New
England today. The light synoptic scale winds and strong
differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop, with
winds becoming onshore during the afternoon at less than 10 knots
with flat wave action. High pressure builds east to the eastern
seaboard Sunday. This will allow SSW flow to develop across the
lower Great Lakes for Sunday with winds still 10 knots or less and
flat wave action.

A cold front will cross the area Monday with a secondary cold front
on Tuesday. Winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range along and
behind these fronts with waves becoming a little more choppy, but
still well below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday with locally
higher winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250514
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
114 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated hourly temperatures and dew points to reflect the latest
trends in observations.

An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through the overnight. Surface high pressure will remain centered
off the northeast coast. Last several runs of the HRRR and RAP
have backed off on stratus/fog potential across eastern Long
Island and southeastern Connecticut. With a light easterly flow
overnight, do not want to completely rule out patchy fog
development towards day break, so have continued to mention for
these locations.

Otherwise, it will be mostly clear with lows ranging from the
lower and middle 50s away from urban centers to the lower and
middle 60s across the NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

With an ese swell/wind wave becoming the dominant wave energy on
Sat...the wind/wave environment may end up being more favorable
for longshore current versus rip current development. Will
continue with a moderate risk for rip current development on
Saturday at the Atlantic Ocean beaches as surf heights should
increase to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon and rip currents enhanced
along the east facing side of groins and jetties...and shoreline
cusps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period.

Latest observations and guidance trends are indicating a lower
probability of IFR stratus development early this morning at
KJFK/KISP/KGON. Dewpoints have been gradually recovering, so
can`t completely rule it out. But it appears to be a low prob
event.

Light NE winds early this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Late tonight-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning
coastal stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast remains on track.

High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
tonight. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250514
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
114 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated hourly temperatures and dew points to reflect the latest
trends in observations.

An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through the overnight. Surface high pressure will remain centered
off the northeast coast. Last several runs of the HRRR and RAP
have backed off on stratus/fog potential across eastern Long
Island and southeastern Connecticut. With a light easterly flow
overnight, do not want to completely rule out patchy fog
development towards day break, so have continued to mention for
these locations.

Otherwise, it will be mostly clear with lows ranging from the
lower and middle 50s away from urban centers to the lower and
middle 60s across the NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

With an ese swell/wind wave becoming the dominant wave energy on
Sat...the wind/wave environment may end up being more favorable
for longshore current versus rip current development. Will
continue with a moderate risk for rip current development on
Saturday at the Atlantic Ocean beaches as surf heights should
increase to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon and rip currents enhanced
along the east facing side of groins and jetties...and shoreline
cusps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period.

Latest observations and guidance trends are indicating a lower
probability of IFR stratus development early this morning at
KJFK/KISP/KGON. Dewpoints have been gradually recovering, so
can`t completely rule it out. But it appears to be a low prob
event.

Light NE winds early this morning will veer to a SE flow late this
morning into afternoon, likely increasing to 10 to 15 kt with
occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for coastal
terminals. These winds lighten during the evening hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Late tonight-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning
coastal stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast remains on track.

High pressure remains over the forecast waters today through
tonight. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 250415
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1215 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...Mainly clear and mild conditions prevailed
across the forecast area with temperatures in the mid 50s to upper
60s.

Lows tonight will not be as cool a previous nights. Looking for
temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with some 40s across the
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks. There may also be some
patchy fog around toward sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heights will rise especially during the day Saturday as ridging
builds in. Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue
to dissipate this evening. Expecting clear skies tonight with
some thin cirrus to stream overhead on Saturday. Some patchy fog
may form in spots late tonight/early Saturday morning; however
confidence is not high enough to mention in KPSF TAF.

Winds will become light/variable to calm overnight with a light
south-southeast flow develop on Saturday. At KPSF...the light
flow is expected to be more westerly on Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250250
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Updated hourly temperatures and dew points to reflect the latest
trends in observations.

An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through tonight. Surface high pressure will remain centered off
the northeast coast. Last several runs of the HRRR and RAP have
backed off on stratus/fog potential across eastern Long Island and
southeastern Connecticut. With a light easterly flow overnight, do
not want to completely rule out patchy fog development towards day
break, so have continued to mention for these locations.

Otherwise, it will be mostly clear with lows ranging from the
lower and middle 50s away from urban centers to the lower and
middle 60s across the NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

With an ese swell/wind wave becoming the dominant wave energy on
Sat...the wind/wave environment may end up being more favorable
for longshore current versus rip current development. Will
continue with a moderate risk for rip current development on
Saturday at the Atlantic Ocean beaches as surf heights should
increase to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon and rip currents enhanced
along the east facing side of groins and jetties...and shoreline
cusps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period.

Latest observations and guidance trends are indicating a lower
probability of ifr stratus development overnight at KJFK/KISP/KGON.
Dewpoints have been gradually recovering...so can`t completely
rule it out...but appears to be a low prob event.

Light e/se winds back ne overnight. Winds veer to SE flow
Saturday late morning into afternoon...likely increasing to 10 to
15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for
coastal terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Night-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal
stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast remains on track this evening.

High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday
night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Saturday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...MET/DS
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250247
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR satellite imagery this late evening continues to display the
region clear, and surface observations display light and variable
winds.

These clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly
drop through the evening hours, with temperatures dropping to
overnight lows in the 50s (Warmer near the lakes, cooler North
Country and hills south and east of Buffalo.)

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the first
half of the overnight period, guidance does indicate an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture, showing up as a fairly extensive area
of clouds over central and SE PA, that is progged to shift
northwards into the Southern Tier late tonight as a mid-level
anticyclone center shifts east across New England. This should end
up producing at least scattered cloud cover later tonight in the
Southern Tier, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the
Southern Tier as diurnal heating and resultant lift should further
aid cloud development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible
shower development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given
the lack of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the
forecast dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region, resulting in clear skies
and light winds through the overnight and late morning hours on
Saturday for most of the area.  Placement of the high pressure will
allow for some moisture to move into the region and increase cloud
cover after 6z tonight over the Southern Tier through the day and
into the evening on Saturday, with bases around 5-6kft, fair skies
and light winds will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250247
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR satellite imagery this late evening continues to display the
region clear, and surface observations display light and variable
winds.

These clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly
drop through the evening hours, with temperatures dropping to
overnight lows in the 50s (Warmer near the lakes, cooler North
Country and hills south and east of Buffalo.)

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the first
half of the overnight period, guidance does indicate an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture, showing up as a fairly extensive area
of clouds over central and SE PA, that is progged to shift
northwards into the Southern Tier late tonight as a mid-level
anticyclone center shifts east across New England. This should end
up producing at least scattered cloud cover later tonight in the
Southern Tier, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the
Southern Tier as diurnal heating and resultant lift should further
aid cloud development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible
shower development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given
the lack of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the
forecast dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region, resulting in clear skies
and light winds through the overnight and late morning hours on
Saturday for most of the area.  Placement of the high pressure will
allow for some moisture to move into the region and increase cloud
cover after 6z tonight over the Southern Tier through the day and
into the evening on Saturday, with bases around 5-6kft, fair skies
and light winds will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250247
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR satellite imagery this late evening continues to display the
region clear, and surface observations display light and variable
winds.

These clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly
drop through the evening hours, with temperatures dropping to
overnight lows in the 50s (Warmer near the lakes, cooler North
Country and hills south and east of Buffalo.)

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the first
half of the overnight period, guidance does indicate an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture, showing up as a fairly extensive area
of clouds over central and SE PA, that is progged to shift
northwards into the Southern Tier late tonight as a mid-level
anticyclone center shifts east across New England. This should end
up producing at least scattered cloud cover later tonight in the
Southern Tier, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the
Southern Tier as diurnal heating and resultant lift should further
aid cloud development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible
shower development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given
the lack of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the
forecast dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region, resulting in clear skies
and light winds through the overnight and late morning hours on
Saturday for most of the area.  Placement of the high pressure will
allow for some moisture to move into the region and increase cloud
cover after 6z tonight over the Southern Tier through the day and
into the evening on Saturday, with bases around 5-6kft, fair skies
and light winds will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250247
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR satellite imagery this late evening continues to display the
region clear, and surface observations display light and variable
winds.

These clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly
drop through the evening hours, with temperatures dropping to
overnight lows in the 50s (Warmer near the lakes, cooler North
Country and hills south and east of Buffalo.)

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the first
half of the overnight period, guidance does indicate an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture, showing up as a fairly extensive area
of clouds over central and SE PA, that is progged to shift
northwards into the Southern Tier late tonight as a mid-level
anticyclone center shifts east across New England. This should end
up producing at least scattered cloud cover later tonight in the
Southern Tier, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the
Southern Tier as diurnal heating and resultant lift should further
aid cloud development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible
shower development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given
the lack of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the
forecast dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region, resulting in clear skies
and light winds through the overnight and late morning hours on
Saturday for most of the area.  Placement of the high pressure will
allow for some moisture to move into the region and increase cloud
cover after 6z tonight over the Southern Tier through the day and
into the evening on Saturday, with bases around 5-6kft, fair skies
and light winds will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBTV 250244
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1044 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING/...
As of 1042 PM EDT Friday...High pressure in place overnight. Mainly
clear skies combined with a dry low-level air mass (2-m dewpoints
mostly in the mid-upr 40s areawide) and light winds will
contribute to good radiational cooling conditions overnight.
Anticipate early A.M. low temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s, coolest
across the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Should see fog return
at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the favored river valleys
east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be a
little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog will
be dissipating shortly after sunrise. PoPs nil overnight.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover is
expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be under 10
knots through the period.

Outlook 00Z Sunday through Tuesday...

00Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Evenson/MV




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250109
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
909 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.Updated at 9 pm... current forecast in good shape. Sct-bkn ac
clouds lingering over northeast pa are remnants of scattered
convection over eastern Pa earlier today. These clouds should
dissipate overnight with clear skies and light winds allowing for
temperatures to fall into the 50s. Atmosphere is quite dry and as
such not much river valley fog is expected. Previous discussion is
below.

Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. High
pressure continues to sit over the region resulting in light and
variable winds through the period. Saturday afternoon expect a
diurnal cu deck to develop over the region and dissipate near
sunset. Do not expect fog development tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 250109
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
909 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.Updated at 9 pm... current forecast in good shape. Sct-bkn ac
clouds lingering over northeast pa are remnants of scattered
convection over eastern Pa earlier today. These clouds should
dissipate overnight with clear skies and light winds allowing for
temperatures to fall into the 50s. Atmosphere is quite dry and as
such not much river valley fog is expected. Previous discussion is
below.

Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. High
pressure continues to sit over the region resulting in light and
variable winds through the period. Saturday afternoon expect a
diurnal cu deck to develop over the region and dissipate near
sunset. Do not expect fog development tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250006
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
806 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains
centered off the northeast coast. A light east to northeast flow
will continue tonight. Latest high resolution guidance indicating
potential for stratus/patchy fog development along the coast overnight
with a developing shallow inversion and moisture pooling
underneath it with light onshore flow. This is largely over
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Have increased
sky cover in these locations and also have added patchy fog
wording to the forecast.

Lows will range from the lower and middle 50s away from urban
centers to the lower and middle 60s across the NYC metro.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development through
early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at
the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period.

Only exception appears to be south coastal terminals overnight
into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result
in ifr or lower conditions. Moderate confidence in occurrence at
kisp/kgon...low confidence at kbdr/kjfk.

SE winds back to e then ne overnight. Winds return once again to
SE flow Saturday late morning into afternoon...likely increasing
to 10 to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon
for coastal terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low prob of Ifr cigs before 12z. Occasional
gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing from ne to se may be
off by around 1 hr. occasional gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat
afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: occasional gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat
afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate prob of IFR cigs before 12z.
Occasional gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SunDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Night-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal
stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday
night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Saturday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250006
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
806 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains
centered off the northeast coast. A light east to northeast flow
will continue tonight. Latest high resolution guidance indicating
potential for stratus/patchy fog development along the coast overnight
with a developing shallow inversion and moisture pooling
underneath it with light onshore flow. This is largely over
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Have increased
sky cover in these locations and also have added patchy fog
wording to the forecast.

Lows will range from the lower and middle 50s away from urban
centers to the lower and middle 60s across the NYC metro.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development through
early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at
the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period.

Only exception appears to be south coastal terminals overnight
into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result
in ifr or lower conditions. Moderate confidence in occurrence at
kisp/kgon...low confidence at kbdr/kjfk.

SE winds back to e then ne overnight. Winds return once again to
SE flow Saturday late morning into afternoon...likely increasing
to 10 to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon
for coastal terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low prob of Ifr cigs before 12z. Occasional
gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of winds backing from ne to se may be
off by around 1 hr. occasional gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat
afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: occasional gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat
afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Moderate prob of IFR cigs before 12z.
Occasional gusts to 15-20 kt possible Sat afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SunDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Night-Sunday Night...VFR. Late night/early morning coastal
stratus/fog possible.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday
night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Saturday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250003
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
803 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible and IR satellite imagery this evening displays the region
clear, aside from a few lingering cumulus clouds over the Southern
Tier. Regional observations noted the southern push of the Lake
Ontario breeze passing to at least the thruway with a northerly
breeze behind the feature of 10-15+ knots. This breeze will fade as
it expands farther southward with the cooling of the evening, such
that most areas should be light and variable with the winds shortly
after sunset.

These clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly
drop through the evening hours, with temperatures dropping to
overnight lows in the 50s (Warmer near the lakes, cooler North
Country and hills south and east of Buffalo.)

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the first
half of the overnight period, guidance does indicate an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture, showing up as a fairly extensive area
of clouds over central and SE PA, that is progged to shift
northwards into the Southern Tier late tonight as a mid-level
anticyclone center shifts east across New England. This should end
up producing at least scattered cloud cover later tonight in the
Southern Tier, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the
Southern Tier as diurnal heating and resultant lift should further
aid cloud development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible
shower development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given
the lack of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the
forecast dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region, resulting in clear skies
and light winds through the overnight and late morning hours on
Saturday for most of the area.  Placement of the high pressure will
allow for some moisture to move into the region and increase cloud
cover after 6z tonight over the Southern Tier through the day and
into the evening on Saturday, with bases around 5-6kft, fair skies
and light winds will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250003
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
803 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible and IR satellite imagery this evening displays the region
clear, aside from a few lingering cumulus clouds over the Southern
Tier. Regional observations noted the southern push of the Lake
Ontario breeze passing to at least the thruway with a northerly
breeze behind the feature of 10-15+ knots. This breeze will fade as
it expands farther southward with the cooling of the evening, such
that most areas should be light and variable with the winds shortly
after sunset.

These clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly
drop through the evening hours, with temperatures dropping to
overnight lows in the 50s (Warmer near the lakes, cooler North
Country and hills south and east of Buffalo.)

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the first
half of the overnight period, guidance does indicate an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture, showing up as a fairly extensive area
of clouds over central and SE PA, that is progged to shift
northwards into the Southern Tier late tonight as a mid-level
anticyclone center shifts east across New England. This should end
up producing at least scattered cloud cover later tonight in the
Southern Tier, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the
Southern Tier as diurnal heating and resultant lift should further
aid cloud development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible
shower development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given
the lack of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the
forecast dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region, resulting in clear skies
and light winds through the overnight and late morning hours on
Saturday for most of the area.  Placement of the high pressure will
allow for some moisture to move into the region and increase cloud
cover after 6z tonight over the Southern Tier through the day and
into the evening on Saturday, with bases around 5-6kft, fair skies
and light winds will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KALY 250002
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
802 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue to
dissipate this evening. Heights will gradually rise overnight
as ridging builds in with clear skies expected. Some patchy
fog may form in spots.

Warm evening underway; lows tonight will not be as cool a previous
nights. Looking for temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with
some 40s across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heights will rise especially during the day Saturday as ridging
builds in. Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue
to dissipate this evening. Expecting clear skies tonight with
some thin cirrus to stream overhead on Saturday. Some patchy fog
may form in spots late tonight/early Saturday morning; however
confidence is not high enough to mention in KPSF TAF.

Winds will become light/variable to calm overnight with a light
south-southeast flow develop on Saturday. At KPSF...the light
flow is expected to be more westerly on Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 250002
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
802 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue to
dissipate this evening. Heights will gradually rise overnight
as ridging builds in with clear skies expected. Some patchy
fog may form in spots.

Warm evening underway; lows tonight will not be as cool a previous
nights. Looking for temperatures to bottom out in the 50s with
some 40s across the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heights will rise especially during the day Saturday as ridging
builds in. Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds will continue
to dissipate this evening. Expecting clear skies tonight with
some thin cirrus to stream overhead on Saturday. Some patchy fog
may form in spots late tonight/early Saturday morning; however
confidence is not high enough to mention in KPSF TAF.

Winds will become light/variable to calm overnight with a light
south-southeast flow develop on Saturday. At KPSF...the light
flow is expected to be more westerly on Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat Night-Mon: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon Night-Wed Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBGM 242349
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. High
pressure continues to sit over the region resulting in light and
variable winds through the period. Saturday afternoon expect a
diurnal cu deck to develop over the region and dissipate near
sunset. Do not expect fog development tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 242349
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. High
pressure continues to sit over the region resulting in light and
variable winds through the period. Saturday afternoon expect a
diurnal cu deck to develop over the region and dissipate near
sunset. Do not expect fog development tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242344
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...Shallow cumulus clouds that formed over
parts of the northern Adirondacks and southern Vermont today are
diminishing with loss of insolational heating this evening.
Clearing skies combined with dry low-level air mass (2-m dewpoints
mostly in the mid-upr 40s areawide) and light winds will
contribute to good radiational cooling conditions overnight.
Anticipate early A.M. low temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s, coolest
across the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Should see fog return
at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the favored river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be
a little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog
will be dissipating shortly after sunrise. PoPs nil overnight.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover is
expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be under 10
knots through the period.

Outlook 00Z Sunday through Tuesday...

00Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Evenson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Evenson/MV




000
FXUS61 KBUF 242326
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
726 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Visible and IR satellite imagery this evening displays the region
clear, aside from a few lingering cumulus clouds over the Southern
Tier. Regional observations noted the southern push of the Lake
Ontario breeze passing to at least the thruway with a northerly
breeze behind the feature of 10-15+ knots. This breeze will fade as
it expands farther southward with the cooling of the evening, such
that most areas should be light and variable with the winds shortly
after sunset.

These clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to quickly
drop through the evening hours, with temperatures dropping to
overnight lows in the 50s (Warmer near the lakes, cooler North
Country and hills south and east of Buffalo.)

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the first
half of the overnight period, guidance does indicate an area of
increased 850-700mb moisture, showing up as a fairly extensive area
of clouds over central and SE PA, that is progged to shift
northwards into the Southern Tier late tonight as a mid-level
anticyclone center shifts east across New England. This should end
up producing at least scattered cloud cover later tonight in the
Southern Tier, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the
Southern Tier as diurnal heating and resultant lift should further
aid cloud development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible
shower development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given
the lack of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the
forecast dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aside from scattered diurnal cu immediately inland of Lake Ontario
and across the hills of the Southern Tier and the North Country,
look for clear skies and light winds across the forecast area this
afternoon with further clearing taking place this evening. While
some cloud cover may drift north from PA after 06Z tonight, with
bases around 5-6kft, fair skies and light winds will persist
elsewhere through the rest of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Shallow cumulus that formed over parts
of the northern Adirondacks and southern Vermont today will
diminish toward sunset. Drier air in the low levels has
contributed to keeping the dew points low...thus good radiational
cooling is expected tonight with clear skies and light winds
allowing lows to get down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Should see
fog return at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be
a little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog
will be burning off shortly after sunrise.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover is
expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be under 10
knots through the period.

Outlook 00Z Sunday through Tuesday...

00Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Evenson/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 242319
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Shallow cumulus that formed over parts
of the northern Adirondacks and southern Vermont today will
diminish toward sunset. Drier air in the low levels has
contributed to keeping the dew points low...thus good radiational
cooling is expected tonight with clear skies and light winds
allowing lows to get down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Should see
fog return at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be
a little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog
will be burning off shortly after sunrise.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions through much of the period.
The only exception to this will be at KSLK and KMPV between 06z
and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR to VLIFR
conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover is
expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be under 10
knots through the period.

Outlook 00Z Sunday through Tuesday...

00Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
18Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Evenson/MV




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242216
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
616 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains
centered off the northeast coast. A light east to northeast flow
will continue tonight. Latest high resolution guidance indicating
potential for stratus/patchy fog development along the coast overnight
with a developing shallow inversion and moisture pooling
underneath it with light onshore flow. This is largely over
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Have increased
sky cover in these locations and also have added patchy fog
wording to the forecast.

Lows will range from the lower and middle 50s away from urban
centers to the lower and middle 60s across the NYC metro.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development through
early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at
the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period.

Only exception appears to be south coastal terminals overnight
into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result
in ifr or lower conditions. Moderate confidence in occurrence at
kisp/kgon...low confidence at kbdr/kjfk.

SE winds at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt late this evening while
backing to more e then ne overnight. Winds return once again to SE
flow Saturday late morning and afternoon...likely increasing to 10
to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for
coastal terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after
00z.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KISP TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after
00z. Increasing probability after 03-04z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...Mainly VFR except for late
Saturday Night with MVFR patchy fog.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday
night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Saturday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KOKX 242133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
533 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains
centered off the northeast coast. Any daytime cumulus development
will begin to dissipate this evening toward sunset. And any
cirrus from convection over southern New Jersey will thin as high
pressure dominates with increasing subsidence. A light east to
northeast flow will continue tonight. Latest guidance indicating
potential for stratus/patchy fog development along the coast
overnight with a developing shallow inversion and moisture pooling
underneath it with light onshore flow.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development through
early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at
the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period.

Only exception appears to be south coastal terminals overnight
into daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result
in ifr or lower conditions. Moderate confidence in occurrence at
kisp/kgon...low confidence at kbdr/kjfk.

SE winds at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt late this evening while
backing to more e then ne overnight. Winds return once again to SE
flow Saturday late morning and afternoon...likely increasing to 10
to 15 kt with occasional higher gusts in the late afternoon for
coastal terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after
00z.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected

KISP TAF Comments: FEW to SCT 700-1000 ft cigs possible after
00z. Increasing probability after 03-04z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...Mainly VFR except for late
Saturday Night with MVFR patchy fog.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday
night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Saturday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JM/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KALY 242057
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
457 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds continue to develop per
the 1km visible satellite imagery. Of interest is the backing of
the low level flow across Long Island into the lower Hudson River
Valley as strengthening onshore flow around the periphery of the
building surface high over the Gulf of Maine. Hires models suggest
this marine influence airmass advects northwestward into our mid
Hudson Valley region and northwestern Connecticut late today into
this evening. So some adjustments to the temperatures and
dewpoints to an otherwise delightful early summer forecast. This
afternoon highs are on target into the upper 70s to mid 80s along
with light and variable winds.

Tonight, mainly clear skies with some patchy fog in spots with a
light and variable wind.  Overnight lows mainly into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out unsettled on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central New York, and a cold front farther
back to the west across the central Great Lakes. This combo will
spread showers southeast across our forecast area late Monday into
Monday night...with the front itself spreading late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms across the northwest half of our forecast area
on Tuesday...perhaps weakening to showers by the time it reaches
southeast zones by Tuesday night.  Yet a third boundary will help
linger clouds and moisture into Wednesday...with some more scattered
showers and storms possible.  By Thursday...high pressure settles in
and abundant sunshine returns.  This high will break down and more
clouds and showers could return for the end of the work week.

Monday will be quite warm...with high temperatures almost everywhere
in the 80s.  The balance of the week will see highs much closer to
normal...though Wednesday/s highs will range only from the upper 60s
to around 80 degrees.  Monday night will be somewhat muggy with lows
only from around 60 degrees to the upper 60s.  by Wednesday night...
lows cool down to their lowest values of the period...upper 40s to
upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours
with high pressure in control. Just a few fair weather cumulus
clouds will be around through the afternoon and again Saturday
morning.

Winds will be light and variable at 6 kt or less through this
afternoon. Winds will be near calm tonight...then variable Saturday
morning...mostly southerly at KALB and KGFL...at 6 kt or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241955
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A slow
moving cold front will begin to approach Monday night, and will
impact the area into Wednesday and possibly Wednesday night. High
pressure will follow from the west on Thursday. A frontal system
may begin to approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
An upper ridge will be building toward the northeast coast
through tonight with heights rising. Surface high pressure remains
centered off the northeast coast. Any daytime cumulus development
will begin to dissipate this evening toward sunset. And any
cirrus from convection over southern New Jersey will thin as high
pressure dominates with increasing subsidence. A light east to
northeast flow will continue tonight, however low levels are
expected to remain dry and fog and stratus are not anticipated.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development through
early this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge continues to build toward the area Saturday and
Saturday night with the ridge axis near the area by Sunday 12Z.
Meanwhile the surface high remains off the northeast coast and
builds westward Saturday night.

With a slight increase in low level moisture by Saturday night,
and light winds and nearly clear conditions, some patchy fog will
be possible. Included 2 to 3 statue mile for for late Saturday
night.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development Saturday at
the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region Sunday, then begin to
move east on Monday. Initial timing of the frontal approach is
handled generally well by NWP guidance, and have chance PoP for
showers/tstms mostly from late Monday night through Wednesday. A
cutoff low forecast to develop just off the coast and downstream
ridging could play havoc with timing of its eventual passage.
ECMWF slower than GFS with fropa in this regard, and retard
passage of the front and associated northern stream trough until
Thursday morning.

Dry on Thursday with high pressure building in, then slowly
increasing chances for showers/tstms on Friday with the approach
of another upper trough and associated frontal system from the
west.

Given the relatively dry pattern, have undercut guidance PoP and
gone mostly above guidance for high temperatures, with highs in
the 80s, warmest Mon and Thu when upper 80s are more likely from
NYC metro north/west and in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period. Only exception could be GON and ISP overnight into daybreak
Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result in MVFR or
lower conditions. The chances for this are low. All TAFs currently
reflect VFR through Saturday.

Winds E becoming SE this afternoon at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt
tonight while backing to more easterly. Some gusts are possible to
20 kt this afternoon. Winds return once again to SE flow Saturday
late morning and afternoon but more in the 5-10 kt range.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt remain possible
before 23Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible before
23Z.

KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible
before 22Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be
delayed 1-3 hours compared to forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...Mainly VFR except for late
Saturday Night with MVFR patchy fog.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the forecast waters through Saturday
night. Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through Saturday night.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Tstms may pose local hazards mainly Tue
afternoon and evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry conditions are expected into late Monday. A slow moving cold
front could bring showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall
mainly Tue into Wed. GFS forecasts PW up to 2 inches with similar
precip efficiency values on Tue, but am taking these high values
with a grain of salt given the relatively dry pattern we have
been experiencing. That said, think we could still see PW up to
1.5 inches, with basin average rainfall from 3/4 to 1 inch mainly
from NYC metro north/west, and locally higher amounts which could
be capable of causing at least localized poor drainage flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Goodman/MET
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MET




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241955
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aside from a few fair-weather cumulus developing along the lake
breeze just inland of Lake Ontario and across this hills of the
North Country and Southern Tier, skies are virtually cloud-free
across much of the forecast area this afternoon courtesy of a dome
of high pressure that is in the process of drifting overhead the
Lower Great Lakes. Any lingering diurnal cu that has not mixed out
by late afternoon will quickly dissipate this evening, leaving
widespread clear skies. This will promote radiational cooling that
should allow temperatures to fall into the 50s overnight.

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the evening
hours, guidance does indicate an area of increased 850-700mb
moisture, currently showing up as a fairly extensive area of clouds
over central PA, that is progged to shift northwards into the
Southern Tier later tonight as a mid-level anticyclone center shifts
east across New England. This should end up producing at least
scattered cloud cover later tonight in the Southern Tier, with
partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the Southern Tier as
diurnal heating and resultant lift should further aid cloud
development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible shower
development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given the lack
of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the forecast
dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing front pushes across the region Tuesday. This front will
not have as much moisture to work with as the initial front Monday,
likely limiting precipiation to just some spotty shower activity.
Behind the front a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the mid
week period, bringing temperatures down to or slightly below
normal levels. The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid
to late next week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry
weather across the region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aside from scattered diurnal cu immediately inland of Lake Ontario
and across the hills of the Southern Tier and the North Country,
look for clear skies and light winds across the forecast area this
afternoon with further clearing taking place this evening. While
some cloud cover may drift north from PA after 06Z tonight, with
bases around 5-6kft, fair skies and light winds will persist
elsewhere through the rest of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241915
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Shallow cumulus that formed over parts
of the northern Adirondacks and southern Vermont today will
diminish toward sunset. Drier air in the low levels has
contributed to keeping the dew points low...thus good radiational
cooling is expected tonight with clear skies and light winds
allowing lows to get down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Should see
fog return at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be
a little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog
will be burning off shortly after sunrise.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...Large scale synoptic pattern continues to
support building ridge as surface high pressure shifts toward
Eastern Canada. This will produce a developing south to southwest
wind on Saturday Night with mainly clear skies. Soundings continue
to support winds decoupling in the deeper/protected mountain
valleys and CT River Valley...with developing south winds at 5 to
15 mph across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. These
winds will keep temps higher than previous couple of
nights...along with slightly higher surface dwpts...therefore
expecting lows mainly 40s mountain valleys to near 60f Champlain
and Saint Lawrence Valleys.

On Sunday...mid/upper level ridge continues to build across our
region with warming low level thermal profiles. Progged 850mb temps
climb another degree or two with values around 16c and 925mb temps
around 23 or 24c. These profiles along with good mixing and very dry
ground surface conditions from the lack of significant rainfall
lately will result in high temps mid 80s to lower 90s...will trend a
few degrees above cooler guidance on sunday. Both GFS/NAM show very
weak 5h vort and associated ribbon of mid level moisture lifting
across Northern NY around 18z on Sunday...but given lack of
significant forcing and limited instability will keep forecast dry
at this time. Dry and slightly warmer and more humid conditions are
expected on Sunday Night with lows mainly in the l/m 50s to l/m 60s
depending upon location...as surface dwpts climb into the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...An active pattern develops for
early next week...as mid/upper level ridge breaks down and trof
deepens across the central Great Lakes by midweek. On Monday...weak
pre-frontal trof and associated embedded 5h vort in the southwest
flow aloft will approach the Saint Lawrence Valley by 15z. Both
GFS/NAM show very weak low level instability parameters as most of
this moisture will go toward moisten up the low levels and create
higher surface dewpoints by late afternoon. However...as instability
increases after 21z...best upper level support is weakening over
eastern VT and ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb rh is dissipating
over central New England. Our current thinking a line of showers
with maybe a few embedded rumbles of thunder is possible on Monday
with temperatures very similar to Sunday. Also...increase in
humidity levels are anticipated...especially toward Monday evening.
A warm and muggy night is anticipated on Monday night with lows
mainly in the 60s...with southwest winds.

Tuesday...Mid/upper level height falls occur associated with potent
5h vort and digging trof across the northern Great Lakes. Have noted
good 0 to 6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots associated with 700 to 500mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots. However the missing ingredient is
instability due to timing of system...as latest gfs shows clouds
will develop during the morning hours and limit surface
heating...with highs only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. These
temperatures and sounding profiles support surface based CAPE values
between 400-800 J/kg across our region on Tuesday Afternoon. Our
current thinking is widespread showers with embedded rumble of
thunder with mainly focus from the Eastern Dacks into most of VT. If
more surface heating occurs than current forecasted...this will
result in greater CAPE and potential for stronger storms based on
dynamics and vertical wind shear. Pw values between 1.50 and 1.75
pool ahead of boundary and approaching dynamics supports the idea of
high pops with localized heavier downpours. Given recent dry spell
not anticipating any hydro issues.

Wednesday through Friday...overall active pattern continues with
potent 5h vort crossing across our region on Weds...with additional
showers. Thermal profiles cool and best pw axis shifts to our east
by Weds...but still expecting scattered to numerous showers with
dynamics and the potential for a rumble of thunder. Progged 850mb
temps between 6-8c support highs mid 60s mountains to mid 70s warmer
valleys...several degrees below normal. Brief break in the chances
for precip on Thursday before the next system arrives on Friday.
Still plenty of uncertainty with regards to timing and potential
impacts. Progged 850mb temps rebound between 10-12c by 12z Friday
supporting near normal highs with chc pops. Best instability
associated with higher temps/dwpts looks to stay across the mid
atlantic states through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally looking at VFR conditions through
much of the period. The only exception to this will be at KSLK and
KMPV between 06z and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR
to VLIFR conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover
is expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the
period.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday...

18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure. 18Z Monday
through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in showers and possible
thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Evenson/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241848
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
248 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM EDT Update...
The weather pattern that appears to be setting up and will remain
through the forecast period will be ridging over the west, and
troughing over the east. Guidance is showing there will be a chance
for showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon as the system
will bring the cold front on Monday will become stationary over the
NE. There will be a slight break in the pattern on Thurs as high
pressure briefly builds over the region, the another system is
expected to move across the area just in time for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period as high
pressure sits over the region. Winds will be light and variable
through sunrise Saturday, then become southerly around 3-7 knots.
Saturday afternoon a cu field will develop over the region as low
lvl moisture moves back over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241842
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
242 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Look for a good deal of sunshine across the North Country this
weekend. A warming trend is also expected with some locations
reaching 90 degrees by Sunday. However...just like last weekend
the temperatures will be rising but the humidity will not be. The
pattern begins to change Monday and Tuesday as a series of fronts
move into the region bringing increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Shallow cumulus that formed over parts
of the northern Adirondacks and southern Vermont today will
diminish toward sunset. Drier air in the low levels has
contributed to keeping the dew points low...thus good radiational
cooling is expected tonight with clear skies and light winds
allowing lows to get down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Should see
fog return at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but areal coverage should be
a little less than last night with drier air moving in. Any fog
will be burning off shortly after sunrise.

On Saturday...warmer 925 millibar temperatures move into the
region with values around 21 Celsius. This should put high
temperatures well into the 80s across the area...which going
forecast has covered well. Low level mixing and not a lot of
moisture will lead to lowering dew points and lowering afternoon
relative humidities with readings getting down into the 30 percent
range. There will likely be some cumulus buildups over the
mountains...but with ridging aloft feel there will be enough
suppression to limit vertical development. In addition...dew
point forecasts seem too high and this is creating greater
instability than what is likely to be realized and with a weak
shortwave passing to the north...some of our higher resolution
data suggest a few storms could develop Saturday afternoon. At
this time feel this is a bit overdone and will not put in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally looking at VFR conditions through
much of the period. The only exception to this will be at KSLK and
KMPV between 06z and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR
to VLIFR conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover
is expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the
period.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday...

18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure. 18Z Monday
through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in showers and possible
thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Evenson/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241837
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
237 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to slowly cross the region tonight and
Saturday, resulting in clear skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on
Saturday. Temperatures will continue to climb through the weekend,
with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly breezes bring a very
warm airmass into the region. A cold front will cross the area on
Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will
usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Aside from a few fair-weather cumulus developing along the lake
breeze just inland of Lake Ontario and across this hills of the
North Country and Southern Tier, skies are virtually cloud-free
across much of the forecast area this afternoon courtesy of a dome
of high pressure that is in the process of drifting overhead the
Lower Great Lakes. Any lingering diurnal cu that has not mixed out
by late afternoon will quickly dissipate this evening, leaving
widespread clear skies. This will promote radiational cooling that
should allow temperatures to fall into the 50s overnight.

While skies should remain virtually cloud-free through the evening
hours, guidance does indicate an area of increased 850-700mb
moisture, currently showing up as a fairly extensive area of clouds
over central PA, that is progged to shift northwards into the
Southern Tier later tonight as a mid-level anticyclone center shifts
east across New England. This should end up producing at least
scattered cloud cover later tonight in the Southern Tier, with
partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday in the Southern Tier as
diurnal heating and resultant lift should further aid cloud
development. That said, GFS/NAM suggestions of possible shower
development Saturday afternoon are likely overstated given the lack
of any appreciable deep moisture and as such will keep the forecast
dry for the entire forecast area.

With 850mb temps warming to around +15C, look for temperatures to
push well into the 80s, particularly across the lake plains where
greater insolation will be aided by light southerly synoptic flow
and associated downsloping. Temperatures in the thruway corridor
between Buffalo and Syracuse should top out in the upper 80s
Saturday afternoon, with cooler readings in the upper 70s along the
lake-breeze moderated lakeshores.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge over Northern Plains states and upstream
trough over the Pacific Northwest will be the main weather features
overhead for Saturday night through Monday night.

Saturday Night through Sunday...The axis of the upper level ridge
will be approaching on Saturday night and cross overhead Sunday
Night. Low level warm air advection will be in place Sunday. This
will allow temperatures to peak near 90F in most locations, with the
usual colder spots along immediate lakeshores and to a lesser extent
over the highest terrain. The still relatively low dewpoints near
60F will give the airmass a somewhat dry feel when compared the more
classic summertime hazy/hot/humid days.  Any convection potential
looks rather unlikely with mid levels of the atmosphere forecast to
remain quite dry per point sounding locations.  This together with
meager instability and no forcing except along lake breeze
boundaries should yield a dry end at least through sunset Sunday.

Sunday night...Warm air advection continues Sunday night with a low
level jet increasing to around 20-30kts.  This together with
increasing cloud cover from cirrus should result in a warm night as
dewpoints remain steady or slowly rise ahead of an approaching cold
front from a weak surface low moving eastward through Ontario
Province (associated with the upper level trough). While the cold
front itself probably will not arrive until Monday morning, models
continue to indicate some weak convection ahead of the cold front
late Sunday night or Monday morning over Western NY.

Monday and Monday night...the cold front and any prefrontal
precipitation should continue east across Western and Central NY
during the morning with dry weather expected for the remainder of
the day for any areas that received rain late Sunday night or early
Monday morning.  Any amount of rain should be welcome, but at this
time do not have a noteworthy QPF.  The cold front should be rather
shallow with daytime highs on Monday still peaking mostly in the
lower to mid 80s. High pressure later Monday and Monday night should
result in dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The secondary cold front will cross the region Tuesday ushering in a
reprieve the weekend`s mid-summer heat. 850 mb temperatures will
fall into the single digits C by Tuesday night, and thus highs on
Wednesday will be closer to normal if not a little below. Moisture
will be lacking across western NY as the first frontal passage will
have stalled the moisture across eastern NY.  Thus some spotty
instability showers are possible across western NY under the upper-
level low, but will not amount to much precipiation. Farther east,
the North Country will have a little better chance at some
precipitation Tuesday before the upper-level support shifts into New
England by Wednesday.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aside from scattered diurnal cu immediately inland of Lake Ontario
and across the hills of the Southern Tier and the North Country,
look for clear skies and light winds across the forecast area this
afternoon with further clearing taking place this evening. While
some cloud cover may drift north from PA after 06Z tonight, with
bases around 5-6kft, fair skies and light winds will persist
elsewhere through the rest of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Nearly calm conditions will persist on the lakes through Sunday as
high pressure moves across the region. Southerly winds will pick up
Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front and this will
generate choppy waters across northeastern Lake Ontario, though
conditions should remain well below small craft advisory criteria. A
cold front will then cross the lake Monday, followed by a secondary
front Tuesday evening. Westerly flow behind these fronts will once
again result in a light to moderate chop on the lakes, but waves
should remain below 3 feet.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period as high
pressure sits over the region. Winds will be light and variable
through sunrise Saturday, then become southerly around 3-7 knots.
Saturday afternoon a cu field will develop over the region as low
lvl moisture moves back over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241816
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period as high
pressure sits over the region. Winds will be light and variable
through sunrise Saturday, then become southerly around 3-7 knots.
Saturday afternoon a cu field will develop over the region as low
lvl moisture moves back over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241815
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 AM update...

Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period as high
pressure sits over the region. Winds will be light and variable
through sunrise Saturday, then become southerly around 3-7 knots.
Saturday afternoon a cu field will develop over the region as low
lvl moisture moves back over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241815
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
215 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A northwest flow of dry air will keep our area under mainly clear
skies and warm through the weekend. Our next chance of rain will
be on early Monday as a cold front pushes through.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Wv dropping thru cntrl PA is generating a few slow mvg shwrs this
aftn. Wv will exit this evening and looks like it will keep shwrs
and ptnl trws south of the area. Some indication on the HRRR and
NAM that an isltd shwr could pop up over the wrn Cats or Poconos
but confidence is low enough to keep a mention out of the grids.
Otrw and mainly clr and dry ngt. Temps dropped off dramatically
last ngt with rdgs quickly in the 40s. While rdgs not likely to be
as low tngt, with the dry conds a quick drop off this eve seems
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 AM update...

Upr rdgg begins to bld Sat ahd of the next wv. This will allow
temps to climb both days and some rdgs in the lwr 90s likely by
sun aftn, esp over the Finger Lakes and the deeper vlys of the
cntrl srn tier.

Decent but slow mvg cold fnt aprchs for Mon but models,
particularly the NAM show the conv pcpn weakening as it
approaches. Once again, the best upr support for pcpn remains well
back over the lakes as the sfc fnt mves into the rdg psn. While
shwrs seem a decent bet...esp along and west of I81 in NY,will
keep only chance pops for the weakening trend shown in the models.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period as high
pressure sits over the region. Winds will be light and variable
through sunrise Saturday, then become southerly around 3-7 knots.
Saturday afternoon a cu field will develop over the region as low
lvl moisture moves back over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241758
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north through this afternoon, and
remains over the region through the weekend. The high drifts
offshore Monday. A cold front will impact the region toward the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures and dew points were updated to reflect the latest
observations and trends.

Dew points along the coast were mixing out into the lower 50s and
upper 40s. Very weak instability with minimal CAPE was across
northeastern New Jersey. However, this area was under weak
subsidence, so will keep the forecast dry. Farther to the south,
southern New jersey into southeastern Pennsylvania, instability
was higher, with higher CAPE. With a weak low in the vicinity
scattered showers were occurring in this region.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development through early
this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period. Only exception could be GON and ISP overnight into
daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result in
MVFR or lower conditions. The chances for this are low. All TAFs
currently reflect VFR through Saturday.

Winds E becoming SE this afternoon at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt
tonight while backing to more easterly. Some gusts are possible to
20 kt this afternoon. Winds return once again to SE flow Saturday
late morning and afternoon but more in the 5-10 kt range.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt remain possible
before 23Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be
delayed 1-2 hours compared to forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible
before 22Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be
delayed 1-3 hours compared to forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with possible showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas mainly on track. Updated for current conditions.

High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241758
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north through this afternoon, and
remains over the region through the weekend. The high drifts
offshore Monday. A cold front will impact the region toward the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures and dew points were updated to reflect the latest
observations and trends.

Dew points along the coast were mixing out into the lower 50s and
upper 40s. Very weak instability with minimal CAPE was across
northeastern New Jersey. However, this area was under weak
subsidence, so will keep the forecast dry. Farther to the south,
southern New jersey into southeastern Pennsylvania, instability
was higher, with higher CAPE. With a weak low in the vicinity
scattered showers were occurring in this region.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development through early
this evening at the Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the region with VFR through the TAF
period. Only exception could be GON and ISP overnight into
daybreak Saturday where some low clouds/patchy fog may result in
MVFR or lower conditions. The chances for this are low. All TAFs
currently reflect VFR through Saturday.

Winds E becoming SE this afternoon at 10-15 kt decrease to 5-10 kt
tonight while backing to more easterly. Some gusts are possible to
20 kt this afternoon. Winds return once again to SE flow Saturday
late morning and afternoon but more in the 5-10 kt range.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt remain possible
before 23Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be
delayed 1-2 hours compared to forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible
before 22Z.

KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast. Timing of more SE wind could be
delayed 1-3 hours compared to forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in showers
and thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Possible MVFR or lower with possible showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas mainly on track. Updated for current conditions.

High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241739
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm air to NY
and PA through the weekend. A storm system moving through lower
Ontario will spread a few thunderstorms into our region Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1000 AM...Temps on track this mrng rising quickly after a chilly
start. Will keep an eye on psbl lgt shwrs over nepa this
aftn...otrw a quiet fcst thru the weekend. No major chgs attm.
Prvs disc blo.

220 AM update...

Temperatures dropped very quickly in the sheltered valleys early
this morning. After a cool start to the day, ample sunshine and
19-20c 925 mb temperatures will yield daytime highs around 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

A ridge of warm high pressure building out of the central plains will
expand into the Great Lakes this weekend. 925 mb temperatures will
push to around 21-22c on Saturday and 23-24c on Sunday.

As a result, temperatures will spike into the middle 80s on
Saturday and into the upper 80s on Sunday. A few locations may
approach 90 Sunday afternoon.

A cyclone moving across Ontario province will bring a chance for a
thunderstorm late Sunday night. Moisture levels appear modest at
best, and a fair degree of mid-level warm air will suppress
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period as high
pressure sits over the region. Winds will be light and variable
through sunrise Saturday, then become southerly around 3-7 knots.
Saturday afternoon a cu field will develop over the region as low
lvl moisture moves back over the region.

OUTLOOK...

Sat afternoon - Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...KAH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main influence on the North Country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a
warming trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by
Sunday. Sunny days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing
clouds at the start of the work week in advance of an approaching
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast
early next week as the front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Friday...Other than a few shallow buildups over
the mountains...rather quiet day is expected with temperatures
reaching normal levels this afternoon...70s to around 80. Lower
dew points creating relative humidities in the 30 percent range so
looking like a real nice afternoon. The lower dew points will
allow for lows to get down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Should see
fog return at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but this will be burning off
shortly after sunrise.

Previous Discussion...
On Saturday 500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably
warmer temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally looking at VFR conditions through
much of the period. The only exception to this will be at KSLK and
KMPV between 06z and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR
to VLIFR conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover
is expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the
period.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday...

18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure. 18Z Monday
through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in showers and possible
thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Evenson/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241733
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
133 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main influence on the North Country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a
warming trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by
Sunday. Sunny days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing
clouds at the start of the work week in advance of an approaching
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast
early next week as the front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Friday...Other than a few shallow buildups over
the mountains...rather quiet day is expected with temperatures
reaching normal levels this afternoon...70s to around 80. Lower
dew points creating relative humidities in the 30 percent range so
looking like a real nice afternoon. The lower dew points will
allow for lows to get down into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Should see
fog return at Saranac Lake later tonight as well as the river
valleys east of the Green Mountains...but this will be burning off
shortly after sunrise.

Previous Discussion...
On Saturday 500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably
warmer temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Generally looking at VFR conditions through
much of the period. The only exception to this will be at KSLK and
KMPV between 06z and 12z when low clouds and fog will create IFR
to VLIFR conditions. Otherwise...little in the way of cloud cover
is expected other than some shallow cumulus buildups over the
mountains. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the
period.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Tuesday...

18Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure. 18Z Monday
through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in showers and possible
thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Evenson/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KALY 241727
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
127 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend. The
next chance for more showers and thunderstorms arrives early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Diurnal and terrain based cumulus clouds continue to develop per
the 1km visible satellite imagery. Of interest is the backing of
the low level flow across Long Island into the lower Hudson River
Valley as strengthening onshore flow around the periphery of the
building surface high over the Gulf of Maine. Hires models suggest
this marine influence airmass advects northwestward into our mid
Hudson Valley region and northwestern Connecticut late today into
this evening. So some adjustments to the temperatures and
dewpoints to an otherwise delightful early summer forecast. This
afternoon highs are on target into the upper 70s to mid 80s along
with light and variable winds.

Tonight, mainly clear skies with some patchy fog in spots with a
light and variable wind.  Overnight lows mainly into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep mainly dry weather and
mainly clear to diurnally driven partly sunny skies across our
region through the weekend with warming temperatures and
increasing humidity. NCEP models continue to suggest the cumulus
field across the terrain may become deep enough to produce
showers. However, at the same time the mid level height fields are
rising so at this time we will keep the region null of shower
potential. Highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 50s to around 60 with highs on
Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90F.

Latest NCEP model suite points toward the upstream frontal
boundary to slow its forward progress a bit. This would point
toward a reduction in the PoPs and keep most of the region dry
overnight. We will hold onto slight chance wording across northern
Herkimer county overnight as this area will be on the edge of the
higher theta-e air late. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central NY, with a cold front farther back
to the west across the eastern Great Lakes. As the pre-frontal
trough gradually moves across the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day. Best chances will be for
areas west of the Hudson Valley. The pre-frontal trough will move
through the rest of the area Monday night, with continued chances
for showers and some storms. It will remain rather warm and humid
until the cold front moves through on Tuesday, which is when the
best likelihood of showers and storms will be across the region.

Forecast confidence then decreases from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as some sources of model guidance are showing the cold
front stalling over our region due to parallel flow aloft with the
upper trough axis lagging back to the west. This would result in a
lingering threat for showers through Wednesday. However, other
guidance is more progressive with the cold front and upper trough
axis, and thus ending the threat for additional showers by Tuesday
night. Will side with slower guidance for now and mention chance
pops through Wednesday, although with potential for improvement if
more models trend faster.

Cooler and drier weather should move in by Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure building in from the west. Fair weather looks
to take hold through at least Thursday. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours
with high pressure in control. Just a few fair weather cumulus
clouds will be around through the afternoon and again Saturday
morning.

Winds will be light and variable at 6 kt or less through this
afternoon. Winds will be near calm tonight...then variable Saturday
morning...mostly southerly at KALB and KGFL...at 6 kt or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday afternoon, then
recover to between 80 and 100 percent Saturday night.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled
`Abnormally Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our
region is approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of
rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241553
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1153 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures and dew points were updated to reflect the latest
observations and trends.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward
into the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon.
This will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest
some showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the
models have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when
coupled with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept
dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the TAF period. VFR conditions
are expected.

East winds become more southeast this afternoon. Wind speeds will
be 10-15 kt with some occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible into
this afternoon. Winds back to more easterly flow later tonight and
decrease to near 5-10 kt.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Tonight-Sunday Night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Updated winds and gusts over the ocean waters to lower a few knots
based on current conditions.

High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB/JM
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241520
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1120 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures and dew points were updated to reflect the latest
observations and trends.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward
into the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon.
This will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest
some showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the
models have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when
coupled with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept
dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in through the TAF period. VFR conditions
are expected.

East winds become more southeast this afternoon around 10 kt with
southern coastal terminals seeing southeast winds earlier than
inland terminals. Some occasional gusts to 15-20 kt will be
possible into this afternoon. Winds back to more easterly flow
later tonight and decrease a few kts in speed.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in category forecast. Moderate
confidence in wind forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Tonight-Sunday Night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday Night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Updated winds and gusts over the ocean waters to lower a few knots
based on current conditions.

High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB/JM
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241430
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main influence on the North Country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a
warming trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by
Sunday. Sunny days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing
clouds at the start of the work week in advance of an approaching
cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast
early next week as the front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Friday...Going forecast in real good shape. Fog
has lifted with just a few shallow cumulus forming over the
northern Adirondacks. Temperatures warming a bit quicker and have
adjusted trends to account for this. Otherwise no other changes
needed at this time.

High pressure at the surface through the entire near term period,
with broad trough at 500 mb initially as a final shortwave passes
by today well to the south of the forecast area over
PA/NJ/DELMARVA. Despite the trough, low relative humidity will
keep skies generally clear. Temperatures a degree or two warmer
than yesterday, went with 80 here at BTV. With clear skies and
continued low dewpoints, low temperature tonight will be able to
cool back into the 40s in the mountains and 50s in the St.
Lawrence & Lake Champlain valleys. Cooling will produce patchy
radiational fog again tonight, although with one more day removed
from rainfall will be less widespread than previous. On Saturday
500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably warmer
temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...LIFR at KMPV/KSLK is lifting and went VFR
clear all taf sites beginning at 12z valid time. vfr clear all
day, then radiation fog expected again KSLK and KMPV after 07z.
AMD NOT SKED in SLK taf based on KSLK ASOS outage...see equipment
section below.

Calm winds most locations today except added northwest light flow
at KBTV to aid in runway direction, and KPBG to see easterly
component with a lake breeze setting up.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241429
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly cross the region today and Saturday with
abundant sunshine both days. Temperatures will warm to above average
through the weekend with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly
breezes bring a very warm airmass into the region. A cold front will
cross the area on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This front will usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The latest satellite imagery this morning continues to show
cloudless skies across the region courtesy of widespread subsidence
and drying that is associated with an expansive surface high
currently moving overhead the Lower Great Lakes.  As we move into
the afternoon, some lingering shallow low level moisture will
support a few diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier and possibly the Tug Hill and western
foothills of the Adirondacks, but these will remain scattered and do
little to detract from the sunshine.

High temperatures will run 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday as the
airmass across the region warms. This will translate into highs in
the lower 80s across lower elevations and upper 70s on the hills. A
northeast flow will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler, but
also prevent any influence from Lake Erie in the Buffalo Metro area.

High pressure remains overhead tonight with strong subsidence and
drying supporting clear skies in most of the area. Model guidance
suggests some limited moisture will drift northward out of PA and
into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier overnight. NAM based
guidance seems notably overdone with this moisture return, but even
the GFS based guidance would support a modest increase in scattered
cloud cover across the Southern Tier overnight. Expect another good
radiational cooling night with lows in the mid to upper 50s in most
areas, and a few low 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
Lewis County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Summer warmth returns for the weekend, as a southerly return flow
develops across the region as a surface high exits off the coast.
The thermal ridge axis will build toward the region Saturday and
across the region on Sunday, making for a slow warming trend each
day. 850 mb temps to +15/+16C on Saturday and to +18C on Sunday will
bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the
upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday. By Sunday, increasing southerly flow
will support the warm temperatures in the typical downslope areas
across the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes, while Buffalo
and Watertown benefit from some modest lake breeze modification.
Humidity will also ramp up through the weekend, providing that true
mid-summer feel, especially by later Sunday as moisture increases
ahead of the next approaching cold front.

Speaking of the next cold front, global models remain on track to
bring in a weak cold front by Sunday night into Monday morning and
some associated showers and thunderstorms. PW values rise to around
1.5 to 1.75 per NAEFS members, but lacking much instability with
the overnight frontal passage and only some weak frontogensis for
forcing, see this being mainly a broken line of showers with a few
heavier downpours possible. Outside of any heavier downpours, most
locations will probably pick up less than a tenth of an inch.

Monday should see a drying trend from west to east as the cold front
steadily marches eastward. Temperatures will remain quite warm on
Monday, as the true cooler air arrives with a secondary cold front
Monday night into Tuesday. Thus with 850 mb temps still in the mid-
teens C, this will bring another day largely in the mid 80s with a
few 90 readings possible in the Genesee Valley and northern Finger
Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The secondary cold front will cross the region Tuesday ushering in a
reprieve the weekend`s mid-summer heat. 850 mb temperatures will
fall into the single digits C by Tuesday night, and thus highs on
Wednesday will be closer to normal if not a little below. Moisture
will be lacking across western NY as the first frontal passage will
have stalled the moisture across eastern NY.  Thus some spotty
instability showers are possible across western NY under the upper-
level low, but will not amount to much precipiation. Farther east,
the North Country will have a little better chance at some
precipitation Tuesday before the upper-level support shifts into New
England by Wednesday.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With surface high pressure building overhead, VFR conditions will
continue to prevail throughout the TAF period. Limited moisture and
differential heating will support the development of scattered
cumulus across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and possibly
the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks with bases of
4-5k feet. The diurnal cumulus will dissipate by late afternoon as
the limited low level moisture mixes fully out and the limited
diurnal instability wanes.

Tonight high pressure will remain overhead with SKC in most areas.
Model guidance suggests some limited moisture will drift north out
of PA and reach the western Southern Tier overnight with a few
patches of VFR clouds.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will continue on the lower Great Lakes today and
Saturday with surface high pressure slowly crossing the region.
Winds will be light northeast in most locations both days with flat
wave action. On Sunday winds will become more southerly and increase
somewhat as high pressure drifts off the east coast, but conditions
will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241429
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly cross the region today and Saturday with
abundant sunshine both days. Temperatures will warm to above average
through the weekend with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly
breezes bring a very warm airmass into the region. A cold front will
cross the area on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This front will usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The latest satellite imagery this morning continues to show
cloudless skies across the region courtesy of widespread subsidence
and drying that is associated with an expansive surface high
currently moving overhead the Lower Great Lakes.  As we move into
the afternoon, some lingering shallow low level moisture will
support a few diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain of the
western Southern Tier and possibly the Tug Hill and western
foothills of the Adirondacks, but these will remain scattered and do
little to detract from the sunshine.

High temperatures will run 2-4 degrees warmer than yesterday as the
airmass across the region warms. This will translate into highs in
the lower 80s across lower elevations and upper 70s on the hills. A
northeast flow will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler, but
also prevent any influence from Lake Erie in the Buffalo Metro area.

High pressure remains overhead tonight with strong subsidence and
drying supporting clear skies in most of the area. Model guidance
suggests some limited moisture will drift northward out of PA and
into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier overnight. NAM based
guidance seems notably overdone with this moisture return, but even
the GFS based guidance would support a modest increase in scattered
cloud cover across the Southern Tier overnight. Expect another good
radiational cooling night with lows in the mid to upper 50s in most
areas, and a few low 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
Lewis County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Summer warmth returns for the weekend, as a southerly return flow
develops across the region as a surface high exits off the coast.
The thermal ridge axis will build toward the region Saturday and
across the region on Sunday, making for a slow warming trend each
day. 850 mb temps to +15/+16C on Saturday and to +18C on Sunday will
bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the
upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday. By Sunday, increasing southerly flow
will support the warm temperatures in the typical downslope areas
across the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes, while Buffalo
and Watertown benefit from some modest lake breeze modification.
Humidity will also ramp up through the weekend, providing that true
mid-summer feel, especially by later Sunday as moisture increases
ahead of the next approaching cold front.

Speaking of the next cold front, global models remain on track to
bring in a weak cold front by Sunday night into Monday morning and
some associated showers and thunderstorms. PW values rise to around
1.5 to 1.75 per NAEFS members, but lacking much instability with
the overnight frontal passage and only some weak frontogensis for
forcing, see this being mainly a broken line of showers with a few
heavier downpours possible. Outside of any heavier downpours, most
locations will probably pick up less than a tenth of an inch.

Monday should see a drying trend from west to east as the cold front
steadily marches eastward. Temperatures will remain quite warm on
Monday, as the true cooler air arrives with a secondary cold front
Monday night into Tuesday. Thus with 850 mb temps still in the mid-
teens C, this will bring another day largely in the mid 80s with a
few 90 readings possible in the Genesee Valley and northern Finger
Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The secondary cold front will cross the region Tuesday ushering in a
reprieve the weekend`s mid-summer heat. 850 mb temperatures will
fall into the single digits C by Tuesday night, and thus highs on
Wednesday will be closer to normal if not a little below. Moisture
will be lacking across western NY as the first frontal passage will
have stalled the moisture across eastern NY.  Thus some spotty
instability showers are possible across western NY under the upper-
level low, but will not amount to much precipiation. Farther east,
the North Country will have a little better chance at some
precipitation Tuesday before the upper-level support shifts into New
England by Wednesday.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With surface high pressure building overhead, VFR conditions will
continue to prevail throughout the TAF period. Limited moisture and
differential heating will support the development of scattered
cumulus across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and possibly
the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks with bases of
4-5k feet. The diurnal cumulus will dissipate by late afternoon as
the limited low level moisture mixes fully out and the limited
diurnal instability wanes.

Tonight high pressure will remain overhead with SKC in most areas.
Model guidance suggests some limited moisture will drift north out
of PA and reach the western Southern Tier overnight with a few
patches of VFR clouds.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will continue on the lower Great Lakes today and
Saturday with surface high pressure slowly crossing the region.
Winds will be light northeast in most locations both days with flat
wave action. On Sunday winds will become more southerly and increase
somewhat as high pressure drifts off the east coast, but conditions
will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KALY 241414
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1014 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south
from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. Some scatttered
diurnal cloudiness should develop in areas of terrain. Few changes
to the forecast if any through this aternoon. It will be a warm
day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s along with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep dry weather and mainly
clear skies across our region through the weekend with warming
temperatures and increasing humidity. Lows tonight are expected to
range from the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s
to around 60 with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

For Sunday night a weakening cold front will be moving into the
eastern Great Lakes overnight producing some scattered showers
across the western Adirondacks. Lows Sunday night will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central NY, with a cold front farther back
to the west across the eastern Great Lakes. As the pre-frontal
trough gradually moves across the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day. Best chances will be for
areas west of the Hudson Valley. The pre-frontal trough will move
through the rest of the area Monday night, with continued chances
for showers and some storms. It will remain rather warm and humid
until the cold front moves through on Tuesday, which is when the
best likelihood of showers and storms will be across the region.

Forecast confidence then decreases from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as some sources of model guidance are showing the cold
front stalling over our region due to parallel flow aloft with the
upper trough axis lagging back to the west. This would result in a
lingering threat for showers through Wednesday. However, other
guidance is more progressive with the cold front and upper trough
axis, and thus ending the threat for additional showers by Tuesday
night. Will side with slower guidance for now and mention chance
pops through Wednesday, although with potential for improvement if
more models trend faster.

Cooler and drier weather should move in by Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure building in from the west. Fair weather looks
to take hold through at least Thursday. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours
with high pressure in control. Just a few fair weather cumulus
clouds will be around today.

Winds will be light and variable through mid morning, then
becoming northeast-east around 5 kt, except westerly at KPSF.
Winds will be light and variable again tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 40 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241357
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm air to NY
and PA through the weekend. A storm system moving through lower
Ontario will spread a few thunderstorms into our region Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM...Temps on track this mrng rising quickly after a chilly
start. Will keep an eye on psbl lgt shwrs over nepa this
aftn...otrw a quiet fcst thru the weekend. No major chgs attm.
Prvs disc blo.

220 AM update...

Temperatures dropped very quickly in the sheltered valleys early
this morning. After a cool start to the day, ample sunshine and
19-20c 925 mb temperatures will yield daytime highs around 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

A ridge of warm high pressure building out of the central plains will
expand into the Great Lakes this weekend. 925 mb temperatures will
push to around 21-22c on Saturday and 23-24c on Sunday.

As a result, temperatures will spike into the middle 80s on
Saturday and into the upper 80s on Sunday. A few locations may
approach 90 Sunday afternoon.

A cyclone moving across Ontario province will bring a chance for a
thunderstorm late Sunday night. Moisture levels appear modest at
best, and a fair degree of mid-level warm air will suppress
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally speaking, VFR is expected this TAF period with high
pressure, light wind, and mostly clear sky. Lack of recent rain
and dry air mass prevented valley fog early this morning, and
there is a lack of confidence in it occurring this coming night
though some model guidance suggests it for KELM. A few-sct
cumulus field is expected to develop at 5-7 kft agl today
especially for KAVP and to a lesser degree KELM-KITH-KBGM. Winds
throughout the period light east or variable 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241357
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm air to NY
and PA through the weekend. A storm system moving through lower
Ontario will spread a few thunderstorms into our region Sunday
night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM...Temps on track this mrng rising quickly after a chilly
start. Will keep an eye on psbl lgt shwrs over nepa this
aftn...otrw a quiet fcst thru the weekend. No major chgs attm.
Prvs disc blo.

220 AM update...

Temperatures dropped very quickly in the sheltered valleys early
this morning. After a cool start to the day, ample sunshine and
19-20c 925 mb temperatures will yield daytime highs around 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

A ridge of warm high pressure building out of the central plains will
expand into the Great Lakes this weekend. 925 mb temperatures will
push to around 21-22c on Saturday and 23-24c on Sunday.

As a result, temperatures will spike into the middle 80s on
Saturday and into the upper 80s on Sunday. A few locations may
approach 90 Sunday afternoon.

A cyclone moving across Ontario province will bring a chance for a
thunderstorm late Sunday night. Moisture levels appear modest at
best, and a fair degree of mid-level warm air will suppress
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally speaking, VFR is expected this TAF period with high
pressure, light wind, and mostly clear sky. Lack of recent rain
and dry air mass prevented valley fog early this morning, and
there is a lack of confidence in it occurring this coming night
though some model guidance suggests it for KELM. A few-sct
cumulus field is expected to develop at 5-7 kft agl today
especially for KAVP and to a lesser degree KELM-KITH-KBGM. Winds
throughout the period light east or variable 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJN
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241249
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
849 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Temperatures and dew points were updated to reflect the latest
observations and trends.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward
into the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon.
This will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest
some showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the
models have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when
coupled with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept
dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Northeast winds around 10 kt this morning will veer to the east
through late morning, then to the southeast this afternoon.
Southern coastal terminals will see southeast winds earlier in
the afternoon than inland terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Updated winds and gusts over the ocean waters to lower a few knots
based on current conditions.

High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241132
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Visibilities have improved across Long Island this morning,
therefore have gone ahead and cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory.
There may still be some left over patchy fog for the next hours
or so.

Temperatures and dew points were also updated to reflect the
latest observations and trends.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward
into the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon.
This will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest
some showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the
models have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when
coupled with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept
dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Northeast winds around 10 kt this morning will veer to the east
through late morning, then to the southeast this afternoon.
Southern coastal terminals will see southeast winds earlier in
the afternoon than inland terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 241132
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Visibilities have improved across Long Island this morning,
therefore have gone ahead and cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory.
There may still be some left over patchy fog for the next hours
or so.

Temperatures and dew points were also updated to reflect the
latest observations and trends.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward
into the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon.
This will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest
some showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the
models have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when
coupled with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept
dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Northeast winds around 10 kt this morning will veer to the east
through late morning, then to the southeast this afternoon.
Southern coastal terminals will see southeast winds earlier in
the afternoon than inland terminals.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241129
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main influence on the north country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a warming
trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by Sunday. Sunny
days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing clouds at the
start of the work week in advance of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast early next week as
the front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 722 AM EDT Friday...Fog has formed in some of the usual
valley locations, bringing KSLK KMPV and KMSS down to 1/4 to 1/2
mile and obscured ceilings. Conditions improving over the last
hour and will be unrestricted within the hour. Afterwards sunny
skies, light winds, and near normal temperatures today.

High pressure at the surface through the entire near term period,
with broad trough at 500 mb initially as a final shortwave passes
by today well to the south of the forecast area over
PA/NJ/DELMARVA. Despite the trough, low relative humidity will
keep skies generally clear. Temperatures a degree or two warmer
than yesterday, went with 80 here at BTV. With clear skies and
continued low dewpoints, low temperature tonight will be able to
cool back into the 40s in the mountains and 50s in the St.
Lawrence & Lake Champlain valleys. Cooling will produce patchy
radiational fog again tonight, although with one more day removed
from rainfall will be less widespread than previous. On Saturday
500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably warmer
temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...LIFR at KMPV/KSLK is lifting and went VFR
clear all taf sites beginning at 12z valid time. vfr clear all
day, then radiation fog expected again KSLK and KMPV after 07z.
AMD NOT SKED in SLK taf based on KSLK ASOS outage...see equipment
section below.

Calm winds most locations today except added northwest light flow
at KBTV to aid in runway direction, and KPBG to see easterly
component with a lake breeze setting up.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK ASOS is out of service. A ticket is open with AOMC and we are
awaiting diagnosis by an electronic technician. Return to service
is unknown.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Hanson
EQUIPMENT...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241129
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main influence on the north country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a warming
trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by Sunday. Sunny
days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing clouds at the
start of the work week in advance of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast early next week as
the front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 722 AM EDT Friday...Fog has formed in some of the usual
valley locations, bringing KSLK KMPV and KMSS down to 1/4 to 1/2
mile and obscured ceilings. Conditions improving over the last
hour and will be unrestricted within the hour. Afterwards sunny
skies, light winds, and near normal temperatures today.

High pressure at the surface through the entire near term period,
with broad trough at 500 mb initially as a final shortwave passes
by today well to the south of the forecast area over
PA/NJ/DELMARVA. Despite the trough, low relative humidity will
keep skies generally clear. Temperatures a degree or two warmer
than yesterday, went with 80 here at BTV. With clear skies and
continued low dewpoints, low temperature tonight will be able to
cool back into the 40s in the mountains and 50s in the St.
Lawrence & Lake Champlain valleys. Cooling will produce patchy
radiational fog again tonight, although with one more day removed
from rainfall will be less widespread than previous. On Saturday
500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably warmer
temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...LIFR at KMPV/KSLK is lifting and went VFR
clear all taf sites beginning at 12z valid time. vfr clear all
day, then radiation fog expected again KSLK and KMPV after 07z.
AMD NOT SKED in SLK taf based on KSLK ASOS outage...see equipment
section below.

Calm winds most locations today except added northwest light flow
at KBTV to aid in runway direction, and KPBG to see easterly
component with a lake breeze setting up.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK ASOS is out of service. A ticket is open with AOMC and we are
awaiting diagnosis by an electronic technician. Return to service
is unknown.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Hanson
EQUIPMENT...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBGM 241101
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
701 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm temperatures
to NY and PA through the weekend. A storm system moving through
lower Ontario will spread a few thunderstorms into our region
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
220 AM update...

Temperatures dropped very quickly in the sheltered valleys early
this morning. After a cool start to the day, ample sunshine and
19-20c 925 mb temperatures will yield daytime highs around 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

A ridge of warm high pressure building out of the central plains will
expand into the Great Lakes this weekend. 925 mb temperatures will
push to around 21-22c on Saturday and 23-24c on Sunday.

As a result, temperatures will spike into the middle 80s on
Saturday and into the upper 80s on Sunday. A few locations may
approach 90 Sunday afternoon.

A cyclone moving across Ontario province will bring a chance for a
thunderstorm late Sunday night. Moisture levels appear modest at
best, and a fair degree of mid-level warm air will suppress
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally speaking, VFR is expected this TAF period with high
pressure, light wind, and mostly clear sky. Lack of recent rain
and dry air mass prevented valley fog early this morning, and
there is a lack of confidence in it occurring this coming night
though some model guidance suggests it for KELM. A few-sct
cumulus field is expected to develop at 5-7 kft agl today
especially for KAVP and to a lesser degree KELM-KITH-KBGM. Winds
throughout the period light east or variable 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except possible pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBUF 241048
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
648 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly cross the region today and Saturday with
abundant sunshine both days. Temperatures will warm to above average
through the weekend with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly
breezes bring a very warm airmass into the region. A cold front will
cross the area on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This front will usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The first few visible satellite shots of the morning show clear
skies across the entire region. After a cool start, temperatures
will warm quickly this morning under full sunshine.

Surface high pressure over the central Great Lakes will build slowly
east into the lower Great Lakes today. Subsidence and drying
associated with the surface high will bring abundant sunshine today.
Some lingering shallow low level moisture will support a few diurnal
cumulus across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and
possibly the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks, but
these will remain scattered and do little to detract from the
sunshine. High temperatures will run 2-4 degrees warmer than
yesterday as the airmass warms. This will translate into highs in
the lower 80s across lower elevations and upper 70s on the hills. A
northeast flow will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler, but
also prevent any influence from Lake Erie in the Buffalo Metro area.

High pressure remains overhead tonight with strong subsidence and
drying supporting clear skies in most of the area. Model guidance
suggests some limited moisture will drift northward out of PA and
into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier overnight. NAM based
guidance seems notably overdone with this moisture return, but even
the GFS based guidance would support a modest increase in scattered
cloud cover across the Southern Tier overnight. Expect another good
radiational cooling night with lows in the mid to upper 50s in most
areas, and a few low 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
Lewis County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Summer warmth returns for the weekend, as a southerly return flow
develops across the region as a surface high exits off the coast.
The thermal ridge axis will build toward the region Saturday and
across the region on Sunday, making for a slow warming trend each
day. 850 mb temps to +15/+16C on Saturday and to +18C on Sunday will
bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the
upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday. By Sunday, increasing southerly flow
will support the warm temperatures in the typical downslope areas
across the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes, while Buffalo
and Watertown benefit from some modest lake breeze modification.
Humidity will also ramp up through the weekend, providing that true
mid-summer feel, especially by later Sunday as moisture increases
ahead of the next approaching cold front.

Speaking of the next cold front, global models remain on track to
bring in a weak cold front by Sunday night into Monday morning and
some associated showers and thunderstorms. PW values rise to around
1.5 to 1.75 per NAEFS members, but lacking much instability with
the overnight frontal passage and only some weak frontogensis for
forcing, see this being mainly a broken line of showers with a few
heavier downpours possible. Outside of any heavier downpours, most
locations will probably pick up less than a tenth of an inch.

Monday should see a drying trend from west to east as the cold front
steadily marches eastward. Temperatures will remain quite warm on
Monday, as the true cooler air arrives with a secondary cold front
Monday night into Tuesday. Thus with 850 mb temps still in the mid-
teens C, this will bring another day largely in the mid 80s with a
few 90 readings possible in the Genesee Valley and northern Finger
Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The secondary cold front will cross the region Tuesday ushering in a
reprieve the weekend`s mid-summer heat. 850 mb temperatures will
fall into the single digits C by Tuesday night, and thus highs on
Wednesday will be closer to normal if not a little below. Moisture
will be lacking across western NY as the first frontal passage will
have stalled the moisture across eastern NY.  Thus some spotty
instability showers are possible across western NY under the upper-
level low, but will not amount to much precipiation. Farther east,
the North Country will have a little better chance at some
precipitation Tuesday before the upper-level support shifts into New
England by Wednesday.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for the 12Z TAF cycle. Surface high
pressure over the central Great Lakes will build eastward into our
region today with clear skies in most areas. Some SCT diurnal
cumulus will develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier
and possibly the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks
with bases of 4-5k feet. The diurnal cumulus will dissipate by late
afternoon as the limited low level moisture mixes fully out and the
limited diurnal instability wanes.

Tonight high pressure will remain overhead with SKC in most areas.
Model guidance suggests some limited moisture will drift north out
of PA and reach the western Southern Tier overnight with a few
patches of VFR clouds.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will continue on the lower Great Lakes today and
Saturday with surface high pressure slowly crossing the region.
Winds will be light northeast in most locations both days with flat
wave action. On Sunday winds will become more southerly and increase
somewhat as high pressure drifts off the east coast, but conditions
will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KALY 241034
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
634 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 535 AM EDT...Mainly clear and seasonable conditions
prevailed across the forecast area with temperatures mainly in the
upper 40s to around 60.

For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south
from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. It will be a warm
day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s along with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep dry weather and mainly
clear skies across our region through the weekend with warming
temperatures and increasing humidity. Lows tonight are expected to
range from the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s
to around 60 with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

For Sunday night a weakening cold front will be moving into the
eastern Great Lakes overnight producing some scattered showers
across the western Adirondacks. Lows Sunday night will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central NY, with a cold front farther back
to the west across the eastern Great Lakes. As the pre-frontal
trough gradually moves across the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day. Best chances will be for
areas west of the Hudson Valley. The pre-frontal trough will move
through the rest of the area Monday night, with continued chances
for showers and some storms. It will remain rather warm and humid
until the cold front moves through on Tuesday, which is when the
best likelihood of showers and storms will be across the region.

Forecast confidence then decreases from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as some sources of model guidance are showing the cold
front stalling over our region due to parallel flow aloft with the
upper trough axis lagging back to the west. This would result in a
lingering threat for showers through Wednesday. However, other
guidance is more progressive with the cold front and upper trough
axis, and thus ending the threat for additional showers by Tuesday
night. Will side with slower guidance for now and mention chance
pops through Wednesday, although with potential for improvement if
more models trend faster.

Cooler and drier weather should move in by Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure building in from the west. Fair weather looks
to take hold through at least Thursday. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours
with high pressure in control. Just a few fair weather cumulus
clouds will be around today.

Winds will be light and variable through mid morning, then
becoming northeast-east around 5 kt, except westerly at KPSF.
Winds will be light and variable again tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 40 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 240939
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
539 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 535 AM EDT...Mainly clear and seasonable conditions
prevailed across the forecast area with temperatures mainly in the
upper 40s to around 60.

For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south
from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. It will be a warm
day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s along with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep dry weather and mainly
clear skies across our region through the weekend with warming
temperatures and increasing humidity. Lows tonight are expected to
range from the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s
to around 60 with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

For Sunday night a weakening cold front will be moving into the
eastern Great Lakes overnight producing some scattered showers
across the western Adirondacks. Lows Sunday night will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central NY, with a cold front farther back
to the west across the eastern Great Lakes. As the pre-frontal
trough gradually moves across the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day. Best chances will be for
areas west of the Hudson Valley. The pre-frontal trough will move
through the rest of the area Monday night, with continued chances
for showers and some storms. It will remain rather warm and humid
until the cold front moves through on Tuesday, which is when the
best likelihood of showers and storms will be across the region.

Forecast confidence then decreases from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as some sources of model guidance are showing the cold
front stalling over our region due to parallel flow aloft with the
upper trough axis lagging back to the west. This would result in a
lingering threat for showers through Wednesday. However, other
guidance is more progressive with the cold front and upper trough
axis, and thus ending the threat for additional showers by Tuesday
night. Will side with slower guidance for now and mention chance
pops through Wednesday, although with potential for improvement if
more models trend faster.

Cooler and drier weather should move in by Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure building in from the west. Fair weather looks
to take hold through at least Thursday. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any remaining clouds have dissipated early this morning. Winds
have become calm except for a persistent light northerly breeze at
KALB. Dry air mass in place, although radiational cooling may
result in some brief fog and IFR conditions at KGFL for an hour or
two. Will mention a tempo to account for this potential.
Temp/dewpoint difference looks to be too much to overcome at KPSF
for any fog, but with slightly higher dewpoints at KPOU some
light fog and MVFR vsby will be possible there.

Any fog will diminish by around 10Z, with mainly SKC conditions
with just a few passing diurnal cumulus clouds around during the
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours,
becoming northeast-east around 5 kt by mid morning, except
westerly at KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 40 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 240939
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
539 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 535 AM EDT...Mainly clear and seasonable conditions
prevailed across the forecast area with temperatures mainly in the
upper 40s to around 60.

For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south
from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. It will be a warm
day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s along with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep dry weather and mainly
clear skies across our region through the weekend with warming
temperatures and increasing humidity. Lows tonight are expected to
range from the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s
to around 60 with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

For Sunday night a weakening cold front will be moving into the
eastern Great Lakes overnight producing some scattered showers
across the western Adirondacks. Lows Sunday night will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central NY, with a cold front farther back
to the west across the eastern Great Lakes. As the pre-frontal
trough gradually moves across the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day. Best chances will be for
areas west of the Hudson Valley. The pre-frontal trough will move
through the rest of the area Monday night, with continued chances
for showers and some storms. It will remain rather warm and humid
until the cold front moves through on Tuesday, which is when the
best likelihood of showers and storms will be across the region.

Forecast confidence then decreases from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as some sources of model guidance are showing the cold
front stalling over our region due to parallel flow aloft with the
upper trough axis lagging back to the west. This would result in a
lingering threat for showers through Wednesday. However, other
guidance is more progressive with the cold front and upper trough
axis, and thus ending the threat for additional showers by Tuesday
night. Will side with slower guidance for now and mention chance
pops through Wednesday, although with potential for improvement if
more models trend faster.

Cooler and drier weather should move in by Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure building in from the west. Fair weather looks
to take hold through at least Thursday. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any remaining clouds have dissipated early this morning. Winds
have become calm except for a persistent light northerly breeze at
KALB. Dry air mass in place, although radiational cooling may
result in some brief fog and IFR conditions at KGFL for an hour or
two. Will mention a tempo to account for this potential.
Temp/dewpoint difference looks to be too much to overcome at KPSF
for any fog, but with slightly higher dewpoints at KPOU some
light fog and MVFR vsby will be possible there.

Any fog will diminish by around 10Z, with mainly SKC conditions
with just a few passing diurnal cumulus clouds around during the
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours,
becoming northeast-east around 5 kt by mid morning, except
westerly at KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 40 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240841
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dense fog continues to linger across Long Island. The dense fog
advisory will therefore remain in effect until 8 am.

Outside of the top of the fog bank, only high clouds were over the
county warning area. These will continue to exit per the latest
satellite observations.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward into
the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon. This
will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest some
showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the models
have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when coupled
with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

VLIFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should
generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island
terminals, and should begin to lift around 10Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the day on Friday.

Light northeast winds will increase to around 10 kt this morning.
Winds then veer to the east through late morning, then to the
southeast this afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely
to see southeast winds earlier in the afternoon.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR visibilities may linger an additional hour
beyond what is indicated in the TAF.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: VLIFR conditions may linger an additional 1-2
hours beyond what is indicated in the TAF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240827
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
427 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main influence on the north country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a warming
trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by Sunday. Sunny
days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing clouds at the
start of the work week in advance of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast early next week as
the front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Good radiational cooling scenario this
morning with clear skies and calm winds. Patchy fog has developed
in the usual foggy spots. Any fog around this morning will burn
off by 8 am, leaving sunny skies and light northwest wind for the
rest of the day.

High pressure at the surface through the entire near term period,
with broad trough at 500 mb initially as a final shortwave passes
by today well to the south of the forecast area over
PA/NJ/DELMARVA. Despite the trough, low relative humidity will
keep skies generally clear. Temperatures a degree or two warmer
than yesterday, went with 80 here at BTV. With clear skies and
continued low dewpoints, low temperature tonight will be able to
cool back into the 40s in the mountains and 50s in the St.
Lawrence & Lake Champlain valleys. Cooling will produce patchy
radiational fog again tonight, although with one more day removed
from rainfall will be less widespread than previous. On Saturday
500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably warmer
temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected at all sites
except LIFR fog development at KSLK and KMPV. Have amended TAFs to
include LIFR vis and cigs at KMPV/KSLK, and KMSS went briefly to
LIFR so kept them down through sunrise as well.

VFR conditions at all sites by sunrise and persisting throughout
the day Friday.

Calm winds with exception of KRUT which will experience drainage
flow out of the SE at 4-8kts. Wind to become generally nw 5kts
mid- late morning except KPBG likely feeling the affects of lake
breeze will have winds out of the E-SE.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...

00Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240827
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
427 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the main influence on the north country`s
weather through the weekend. Daily temperatures will be on a warming
trend, with highs near 90 in some valley locations by Sunday. Sunny
days and moonlit nights will give way to increasing clouds at the
start of the work week in advance of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will enter the forecast early next week as
the front moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Good radiational cooling scenario this
morning with clear skies and calm winds. Patchy fog has developed
in the usual foggy spots. Any fog around this morning will burn
off by 8 am, leaving sunny skies and light northwest wind for the
rest of the day.

High pressure at the surface through the entire near term period,
with broad trough at 500 mb initially as a final shortwave passes
by today well to the south of the forecast area over
PA/NJ/DELMARVA. Despite the trough, low relative humidity will
keep skies generally clear. Temperatures a degree or two warmer
than yesterday, went with 80 here at BTV. With clear skies and
continued low dewpoints, low temperature tonight will be able to
cool back into the 40s in the mountains and 50s in the St.
Lawrence & Lake Champlain valleys. Cooling will produce patchy
radiational fog again tonight, although with one more day removed
from rainfall will be less widespread than previous. On Saturday
500 mb ridging moves in with rising heights and noticeably warmer
temperatures. 850 mb temps around 14c and 925 mb temps 20-21c
support max surface temps in the mid to upper 80s. Warm, but
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...High pressure continues Saturday
evening as an upper level ridge builds into the North Country. The
increasing heights and warm air advection will continue the trend
of warming temps both in the evenings and during the day. 925mb
temps warm to 21-23C Sunday which is supportive of max temps in
the upper 80s across the North Country and low 90s in the Saint
Lawrence and Champlain valleys. With the ridge aloft and surface
high pressure we should see dry weather and a small chance of some
valley fog in in the protected river valleys mainly on Saturday
night as we drop below the crossover temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 422 AM EDT Friday...Guidance continues to point to two
fronts impinging on the North Country early in the week. The first
front Monday doesn`t have quite the dynamic forcing however temps
warming into the mid 80s with dew points in the low 60s is
generally a good bet on on some convection. Low level instability
is weak but there is some elevated instability and K index values
are supportive of thunder so I did increase the scope of thunder
in the forecast from slight chance to chance on Monday as the
first front rolls through.

Consensus of the guidance as that the better dynamics and forcing
will move through with the second front. Timing continues to point
to the second front entering the Saint Lawrence valley by mid day
and then stalling briefly. If this holds true, then there could be
the potential for some stronger storms on Tuesday afternoon across
northern New York. Forecast soundings from the GFS still point to
some small hail potential with low WBZ heights. However the cape
profile is tall and skinny which would mean slightly weaker
updrafts. All of this is still caveatted based on frontal timing
however. Following an active weather start to the work week, quieter
and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected at all sites
except LIFR fog development at KSLK and KMPV. Have amended TAFs to
include LIFR vis and cigs at KMPV/KSLK, and KMSS went briefly to
LIFR so kept them down through sunrise as well.

VFR conditions at all sites by sunrise and persisting throughout
the day Friday.

Calm winds with exception of KRUT which will experience drainage
flow out of the SE at 4-8kts. Wind to become generally nw 5kts
mid- late morning except KPBG likely feeling the affects of lake
breeze will have winds out of the E-SE.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...

00Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBUF 240805
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
405 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly cross the region Today and Saturday with
abundant sunshine both days. Temperatures will warm to above average
through the weekend with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly
breezes bring a very warm airmass into the region. A cold front will
cross the area on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This front will usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR satellite imagery showing clear skies across the entire region
early this morning, and this will continue to be the case through
daybreak. The clear skies, light winds, and dry airmass have allowed
for good radiational cooling with temperatures dropping through the
50s away from the immediate lakeshores, and even a few readings in
the upper 40s in the typically cooler locations.

Surface high pressure over the central Great Lakes will build slowly
east into the lower Great Lakes today. Subsidence and drying
associated with the surface high will bring abundant sunshine today.
Some lingering shallow low level moisture will support a few diurnal
cumulus across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and
possibly the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks, but
these will remain scattered and do little to detract from the
sunshine. High temperatures will run 2-4 degrees warmer than
yesterday as the airmass warms. This will translate into highs in
the lower 80s across lower elevations and upper 70s on the hills. A
northeast flow will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler, but
also prevent any influence from Lake Erie in the Buffalo Metro area.

High pressure remains overhead tonight with strong subsidence and
drying supporting clear skies in most of the area. Model guidance
suggests some limited moisture will drift northward out of PA and
into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier overnight. NAM based
guidance seems notably overdone with this moisture return, but even
the GFS based guidance would support a modest increase in scattered
cloud cover across the Southern Tier overnight. Expect another good
radiational cooling night with lows in the mid to upper 50s in most
areas, and a few low 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
Lewis County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Summer warmth returns for the weekend, as a southerly return flow
develops across the region as a surface high exits off the coast.
The thermal ridge axis will build toward the region Saturday and
across the region on Sunday, making for a slow warming trend each
day. 850 mb temps to +15/+16C on Saturday and to +18C on Sunday will
bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the
upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday. By Sunday, increasing southerly flow
will support the warm temperatures in the typical downslope areas
across the Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes, while Buffalo
and Watertown benefit from some modest lake breeze modification.
Humidity will also ramp up through the weekend, providing that true
mid-summer feel, especially by later Sunday as moisture increases
ahead of the next approaching cold front.

Speaking of the next cold front, global models remain on track to
bring in a weak cold front by Sunday night into Monday morning and
some associated showers and thunderstorms. PW values rise to around
1.5 to 1.75 per NAEFS members, but lacking much instability with
the overnight frontal passage and only some weak frontogensis for
forcing, see this being mainly a broken line of showers with a few
heavier downpours possible. Outside of any heavier downpours, most
locations will probably pick up less than a tenth of an inch.

Monday should see a drying trend from west to east as the cold front
steadily marches eastward. Temperatures will remain quite warm on
Monday, as the true cooler air arrives with a secondary cold front
Monday night into Tuesday. Thus with 850 mb temps still in the mid-
teens C, this will bring another day largely in the mid 80s with a
few 90 readings possible in the Genesee Valley and northern Finger
Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The secondary cold front will cross the region Tuesday ushering in a
reprieve the weekend`s mid-summer heat. 850 mb temperatures will
fall into the single digits C by Tuesday night, and thus highs on
Wednesday will be closer to normal if not a little below. Moisture
will be lacking across western NY as the first frontal passage will
have stalled the moisture across eastern NY.  Thus some spotty
instability showers are possible across western NY under the upper-
level low, but will not amount to much precipiation. Farther east,
the North Country will have a little better chance at some
precipitation Tuesday before the upper-level support shifts into New
England by Wednesday.

The next sprawling high pressure system arrives mid to late next
week and will bring a slow warming trend and dry weather across the
region to close out the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for the 06Z TAF cycle. Surface high
pressure over the central Great Lakes will build eastward into our
region today with clear skies in most areas. Some SCT diurnal
cumulus will develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier
and possibly the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks
with bases of 4-5k feet. The diurnal cumulus will dissipate by late
afternoon as the limited low level moisture mixes fully out and the
limited diurnal instability wanes.

Tonight high pressure will remain overhead with SKC in most areas.
Model guidance suggests some limited moisture will drift north out
of PA and reach the western Southern Tier overnight with a few
patches of VFR clouds.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will continue on the lower Great Lakes Today and
Saturday with surface high pressure slowly crossing the region.
Winds will be light northeast in most locations both days with flat
wave action. On Sunday winds will become more southerly and increase
somewhat as high pressure drifts off the east coast, but conditions
will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KALY 240754
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
354 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south
from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. It will be a warm
day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s along with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep dry weather and mainly
clear skies across our region through the weekend with warming
temperatures and increasing humidity. Lows tonight are expected to
range from the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s
to around 60 with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

For Sunday night a weakening cold front will be moving into the
eastern Great Lakes overnight producing some scattered showers
across the western Adirondacks. Lows Sunday night will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central NY, with a cold front farther back
to the west across the eastern Great Lakes. As the pre-frontal
trough gradually moves across the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day. Best chances will be for
areas west of the Hudson Valley. The pre-frontal trough will move
through the rest of the area Monday night, with continued chances
for showers and some storms. It will remain rather warm and humid
until the cold front moves through on Tuesday, which is when the
best likelihood of showers and storms will be across the region.

Forecast confidence then decreases from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as some sources of model guidance are showing the cold
front stalling over our region due to parallel flow aloft with the
upper trough axis lagging back to the west. This would result in a
lingering threat for showers through Wednesday. However, other
guidance is more progressive with the cold front and upper trough
axis, and thus ending the threat for additional showers by Tuesday
night. Will side with slower guidance for now and mention chance
pops through Wednesday, although with potential for improvement if
more models trend faster.

Cooler and drier weather should move in by Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure building in from the west. Fair weather looks
to take hold through at least Thursday. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any remaining clouds have dissipated early this morning. Winds
have become calm except for a persistent light northerly breeze at
KALB. Dry air mass in place, although radiational cooling may
result in some brief fog and IFR conditions at KGFL for an hour or
two. Will mention a tempo to account for this potential.
Temp/dewpoint difference looks to be too much to overcome at KPSF
for any fog, but with slightly higher dewpoints at KPOU some
light fog and MVFR vsby will be possible there.

Any fog will diminish by around 10Z, with mainly SKC conditions
with just a few passing diurnal cumulus clouds around during the
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours,
becoming northeast-east around 5 kt by mid morning, except
westerly at KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 40 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 240754
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
354 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today expect abundant sunshine as high pressure settles south
from southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. It will be a warm
day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s along with light and
variable winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday the ridge of high pressure will cover the northeastern
third of the country and then slowly slide southeastward off the
eastern seaboard on Sunday. This will keep dry weather and mainly
clear skies across our region through the weekend with warming
temperatures and increasing humidity. Lows tonight are expected to
range from the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s
to around 60 with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s to around 90.

For Sunday night a weakening cold front will be moving into the
eastern Great Lakes overnight producing some scattered showers
across the western Adirondacks. Lows Sunday night will be in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out on Monday with a pre-frontal trough
approaching from western/central NY, with a cold front farther back
to the west across the eastern Great Lakes. As the pre-frontal
trough gradually moves across the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the day. Best chances will be for
areas west of the Hudson Valley. The pre-frontal trough will move
through the rest of the area Monday night, with continued chances
for showers and some storms. It will remain rather warm and humid
until the cold front moves through on Tuesday, which is when the
best likelihood of showers and storms will be across the region.

Forecast confidence then decreases from Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as some sources of model guidance are showing the cold
front stalling over our region due to parallel flow aloft with the
upper trough axis lagging back to the west. This would result in a
lingering threat for showers through Wednesday. However, other
guidance is more progressive with the cold front and upper trough
axis, and thus ending the threat for additional showers by Tuesday
night. Will side with slower guidance for now and mention chance
pops through Wednesday, although with potential for improvement if
more models trend faster.

Cooler and drier weather should move in by Wednesday night, with
surface high pressure building in from the west. Fair weather looks
to take hold through at least Thursday. Temperatures will cool to
slightly below normal levels towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any remaining clouds have dissipated early this morning. Winds
have become calm except for a persistent light northerly breeze at
KALB. Dry air mass in place, although radiational cooling may
result in some brief fog and IFR conditions at KGFL for an hour or
two. Will mention a tempo to account for this potential.
Temp/dewpoint difference looks to be too much to overcome at KPSF
for any fog, but with slightly higher dewpoints at KPOU some
light fog and MVFR vsby will be possible there.

Any fog will diminish by around 10Z, with mainly SKC conditions
with just a few passing diurnal cumulus clouds around during the
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours,
becoming northeast-east around 5 kt by mid morning, except
westerly at KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 40 percent this
afternoon, recover to 75 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to
45 percent on Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240720 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
320 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Dense fog continues to linger across Long Island. The dense fog
advisory will therefore remain in effect until 8 am.

Outside of the top of the fog bank, only high clouds were over the
county warning area. These will continue to exit per the latest
satellite observations.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward into
the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon. This
will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest some
showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the models
have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when coupled
with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today at
Atlantic Ocean beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

IFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should
generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island
terminals, but these lower conditions may work into KJFK for a
few hours early this morning. Any fog should begin to lift around
10Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the day on
Friday.

Light and variable winds to start will become north/northeast
with speeds increasing to around 10 kt towards 12Z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the
afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely to see
southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB/JE/NV
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 240713
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
313 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm temperatures
to NY and PA through the weekend. A storm system moving through
lower Ontario will spread a few thunderstorms into our region
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
220 AM update...

Temperatures dropped very quickly in the sheltered valleys early
this morning. After a cool start to the day, ample sunshine and
19-20c 925 mb temperatures will yield daytime highs around 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

A ridge of warm high pressure building out of the central plains will
expand into the Great Lakes this weekend. 925 mb temperatures will
push to around 21-22c on Saturday and 23-24c on Sunday.

As a result, temperatures will spike into the middle 80s on
Saturday and into the upper 80s on Sunday. A few locations may
approach 90 Sunday afternoon.

A cyclone moving across Ontario province will bring a chance for a
thunderstorm late Sunday night. Moisture levels appear modest at
best, and a fair degree of mid-level warm air will suppress
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 am update...
Forecast adjusted towards blend of latest models. A trend to note
is that the front Monday may get hung up a bit in our region into
Tuesday, with little flow aloft to force it through. GFS-ECMWF-
GEM all agree on delaying frontal passage until Tuesday when the
upper trough drops into the region. So both Monday and Tuesday
have decent chances for scattered hit-or-miss showers and
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
Much like what has been the case the past 30 to 60 days, a
soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold front will cross
our area Monday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The limiting factor for thunderstorm development will be the
timing of the front as it moves through early in the day. An upper
level trof will dig southward into our area by mid week with a
slightly better chance for scattered showers and cooler air, with
850s sliding back toward +10C. The result will be highs dropping
back into the 70s or pretty close if not slightly below late June
normals

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally speaking, VFR is expected this TAF period with high
pressure, light wind, and mostly clear sky. Only exception is for
possible MVFR VIS 09Z-11Z this morning at KELM from valley fog.
Lack of recent rain and dry air mass should prevent anything
worse from occurring. Also, a few-sct cumulus field is expected
to develop at 5-7 kft agl today especially for KAVP and to a
lesser degree KELM- KITH-KBGM. Winds throughout the period light
east or variable 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...Heden/MDP
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240712
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
312 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Dense fog continues to linger across Long Island. The dense fog
advisory will therefore remain in effect until 8 am.

Outside of the top of the fog bank, only high clouds were over the
county warning area. These will continue to exit per the latest
satellite observations.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward into
the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon. This
will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest some
showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the models
have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when coupled
with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

IFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should
generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island
terminals, but these lower conditions may work into KJFK for a
few hours early this morning. Any fog should begin to lift around
10Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the day on
Friday.

Light and variable winds to start will become north/northeast
with speeds increasing to around 10 kt towards 12Z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the
afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely to see
southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB/JE/NV
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240712
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
312 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today, remain over the
region through the weekend, then drift offshore on Monday. A cold
front will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Dense fog continues to linger across Long Island. The dense fog
advisory will therefore remain in effect until 8 am.

Outside of the top of the fog bank, only high clouds were over the
county warning area. These will continue to exit per the latest
satellite observations.

Low level moisture attempts to pool from New Jersey northward into
the Hudson Valley due to weak onshore flow this afternoon. This
will enhance surface based instability. The models suggest some
showers will break out in these areas as a result, but the models
have been too sensitive when inducing convection, so when coupled
with synoptic scale subsidence, the forecast has been kept dry.

A combination of the MAV, MET and Superblend was used for
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A high pressure ridge builds in for tonight and Saturday. This
will keep the forecast area dry with extensive sunshine. A weak
low pressure system will develop along the stationary front over
Virgina tonight, then track eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on
Saturday. This will not bring any weather to the Tri-State Area,
but will attempt to induce a light northeasterly flow,
particularly across Long Island. This would keep temperatures
from completely bottoming out across the pine barrens tonight, so
the Superblend was used as opposed to the colder MAV and MET.
Elsewhere, any discrepancy in the data was less pronounced. The
Superblend was used for temperatures on Saturday with the guidance
in good agreement. Some patchy fog may be possible in the interior
river valleys tonight where winds will be lightest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region for the second half of the
weekend before moving offshore on Monday. Temperatures this weekend
will slowly warm into the 80s each day, possibly touching 90 north
and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. A light pressure gradient and the
combination of warm land temperatures and relative cooler water
temperatures will likely result in afternoon seabreezes. Highs along
the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

IFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should
generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island
terminals, but these lower conditions may work into KJFK for a
few hours early this morning. Any fog should begin to lift around
10Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the day on
Friday.

Light and variable winds to start will become north/northeast
with speeds increasing to around 10 kt towards 12Z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the
afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely to see
southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area will keep winds and seas
below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Low pressure
passing about 250 miles south of Long Island on Saturday may
produce enough swell to bring waves to 5 feet on the ocean.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters late this weekend
and into next week. Some near shore wind gusts may be possible each
afternoon over the weekend as afternoon seabreezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for precipitation will be Monday night through
Tuesday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB/JE/NV
MARINE...BC/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC




000
FXUS61 KBGM 240624
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and warm temperatures
to NY and PA through the weekend. A storm system moving through
lower Ontario will spread a few thunderstorms into our region
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
220 AM update...

Temperatures dropped very quickly in the sheltered valleys early
this morning. After a cool start to the day, ample sunshine and
19-20c 925 mb temperatures will yield daytime highs around 80
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...

A ridge of warm high pressure building out of the central plainswill
expand into the Great Lakes this weekend. 925 mb temperatures will
push to around 21-22c on Saturday and 23-24c on Sunday.

As a result, temperatures will spike into the middle 80s on
Saturday and into the upper 80s on Sunday. A few locations may
approach 90 Sunday afternoon.

A cyclone moving across Ontario province will bring a chance for a
thunderstorm late Sunday night. Moisture levels appear modest at
best, and a fair degree of mid-level warm air will suppress
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM Update...

Hitting on the last point above and searching for rain, our next
shot will come Monday. Much like what has been the case the past
30 to 60 days, a soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold
front will cross our area Monday with the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. The limiting factor for thunderstorm
development will be the timing of the front as it moves through
early in the day. An upper level trof will dig southward into our
area by mid week with a slightly better chance for scattered
showers and cooler air, with 850s sliding back toward +10C. The
result will be highs dropping back into the 70s or pretty close if
not slightly below late June normals

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally speaking, VFR is expected this TAF period with high
pressure, light wind, and mostly clear sky. Only exception is for
possible MVFR VIS 09Z-11Z this morning at KELM from valley fog.
Lack of recent rain and dry air mass should prevent anything
worse from occurring. Also, a few-sct cumulus field is expected
to develop at 5-7 kft agl today especially for KAVP and to a
lesser degree KELM- KITH-KBGM. Winds throughout the period light
east or variable 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240541
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region
through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front
will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A dense fog advisory for Suffolk county on Long Island has been
issued, as widespread dense fog is being reported by automated
systems. No other changes were made to the forecast. Skies will
clear as a cold front moves south and shortwave trough passes
offshore.

Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low
60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island
Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid
level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to
a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro,
but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees
above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most
places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east.
Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on
Atlantic facing beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and
slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

IFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should
generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island
terminals, but these lower conditions may work into KJFK for a
few hours early this morning. Any fog should begin to lift around
10Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the day on
Friday.

Light and variable winds to start will become north/northeast
with speeds increasing to around 10 kt towards 12Z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the
afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely to see
southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island
Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning.
Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip
will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front
passes through.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman/DS
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...FEB/JE/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240541
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region
through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front
will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A dense fog advisory for Suffolk county on Long Island has been
issued, as widespread dense fog is being reported by automated
systems. No other changes were made to the forecast. Skies will
clear as a cold front moves south and shortwave trough passes
offshore.

Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low
60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island
Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid
level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to
a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro,
but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees
above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most
places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east.
Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on
Atlantic facing beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and
slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the north through Friday.

IFR conditions in fog early this morning at KISP. This should
generally be confined to southern and eastern Long Island
terminals, but these lower conditions may work into KJFK for a
few hours early this morning. Any fog should begin to lift around
10Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the day on
Friday.

Light and variable winds to start will become north/northeast
with speeds increasing to around 10 kt towards 12Z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then more southeast during the
afternoon. South coastal terminals are more likely to see
southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island
Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning.
Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip
will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front
passes through.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman/DS
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...FEB/JE/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS




000
FXUS61 KALY 240530
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies are expected to be mainly clear for the remainder of the overnight
hours with winds becoming light and variable to calm. This set up
will allow for another night with below normal temperatures but
not quite as cool as last night. Looking at lows from mainly the
mid 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As upstream upper level impulses move across the region on Friday,
expect some cloud coverage to accompany these waves. Due to those
clouds from time to time, MOS guidance continues to suggest
afternoon highs for valley locations to range between 80-85F with
75-80F for the terrain. A light northerly wind should prevail at
less than 10KTS.

Well, it would appear a relative big bubble no trouble for this
last weekend of June (but first full weekend of summer). Guidance
is in excellent agreement with the 1020MB surface high sliding
across the region with building heights aloft. This too will
result in a gradual thermal profile moderation as highs slowly add
a few degrees each day. As for overnight lows, with the gradual
increase in low level moisture as the surface high slides off the
Atlantic shoreline, we will too see a moderation with overnight
lows mainly into the 50s with 55-60F Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The region will be under the influence of ridging at the surface
and aloft Sunday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be warm in the
teens and with abundant sunshine expect a very warm/hot day. Expecting
highs mainly in the 80s with around 90 degrees/into the lower 90s in
portions of the Hudson River Valley including the Capital District.

The ridge will weaken as heights begin to fall as an upper level low
moving eastward just to the north of the United States/Canadian heads
into Great Lakes Region. This closed low is expected to open as is moves
across eastern Canada Monday. Chances for convection should be mainly
limited to the northwest portion of the forecast area across the southern
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley area closer to the upper level support.
However do have slight chance pops across the rest of the area as can`t
rule out isolated convection. Monday will not be as warm as Sunday due
to increase cloud cover.

Additional short-wave energy over-topping the ridge axis to the west
will enter the trough causing it to deepening as it moves gradually
eastward across the northeast through the middle of the week. A couple
of cold fronts are expected to move through triggering widespread chances
for convection Monday night into Tuesday night. Best chances will be
during the day on Tuesday and with the warm/humid air mass will need
to watch for the potential for any strong storms. However this will be
highly depend on the exact timing of the front and the amount of
instability in place as it approaches and moves through, which is still
far from certain at this time.

The upper trough axis will move over region on Wednesday keeping the
threat of isolated convection in the forecast with the heating of the
day. Near seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 80s.

The flow over the region is expected to become flat for Thursday as
the region is forecast to be between short-wave troughs. Expecting
fair weather with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any remaining clouds have dissipated early this morning. Winds
have become calm except for a persistent light northerly breeze at
KALB. Dry air mass in place, although radiational cooling may
result in some brief fog and IFR conditions at KGFL for an hour or
two. Will mention a tempo to account for this potential.
Temp/dewpoint difference looks to be too much to overcome at KPSF
for any fog, but with slightly higher dewpoints at KPOU some
light fog and MVFR vsby will be possible there.

Any fog will diminish by around 10Z, with mainly SKC conditions
with just a few passing diurnal cumulus clouds around during the
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable through the overnight hours,
becoming northeast-east around 5 kt by mid morning, except
westerly at KPSF.

Outlook...

Fri Night-Sun Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Mon Night-Tue: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in Friday and is expected to dominate
our weather through the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 30 to 45 percent on Friday afternoon.

Winds will be light from a northerly direction at speeds less than
10 mph through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KBUF 240527
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly cross the region Today and Saturday with
abundant sunshine both days. Temperatures will warm to above average
through the weekend with the heat peaking on Sunday as southerly
breezes bring a very warm airmass into the region. A cold front will
cross the area on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This front will usher in a much cooler airmass by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR satellite imagery showing clear skies across the entire region
early this morning, and this will continue to be the case through
daybreak. The clear skies, light winds, and dry airmass have allowed
for good radiational cooling with temperatures dropping through the
50s away from the immediate lakeshores, and even a few readings in
the upper 40s in the typically cooler locations.

Surface high pressure over the central Great Lakes will build slowly
east into the lower Great Lakes today. Subsidence and drying
associated with the surface high will bring abundant sunshine today.
Some lingering shallow low level moisture will support a few diurnal
cumulus across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and
possibly the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks, but
these will remain scattered and do little to detract from the
sunshine. High temperatures will run 2-4 degrees warmer than
yesterday as the airmass warms. This will translate into highs in
the lower 80s across lower elevations and upper 70s on the hills. A
northeast flow will keep the south shore of Lake Ontario cooler, but
also prevent any influence from Lake Erie in the Buffalo Metro area.

High pressure remains overhead tonight with strong subsidence and
drying supporting clear skies in most of the area. Model guidance
suggests some limited moisture will drift northward out of PA and
into the higher terrain of the Southern Tier overnight. NAM based
guidance seems notably overdone with this moisture return, but even
the GFS based guidance would support a modest increase in scattered
cloud cover across the Southern Tier overnight. Expect another good
radiational cooling night with lows in the mid to upper 50s in most
areas, and a few low 50s in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and
Lewis County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mother Nature has guaranteed us very warm and dry weather for the
bulk of the weekend...as a progressive low amplitude ridge will
cross the region. Sfc high pressure that will be anchored off Nova
Scotia will circulate increasingly warm and humid air northwards
in the process...so that temperatures will reach into the mid to
upper 80s on Saturday and within a degree of so of 90 for Sunday.

By the end of the weekend...the table will be set for some
thunderstorms as an unstable airmass will be lying in wait for an
approaching cold front. This front will cross our region in `pieces`
with the first boundary coming through Sunday night. PWAT values
over the western counties will surge to nearly 2 inches immediately
ahead of this first boundary...so there will be somewhat of a risk
for heavier than normal downpours.

While Monday could be somewhat unsettled with the `real` cold front
moving across the region...the plume of moisture that would have
supported more robust convection the previous night will be exiting
across New England. By the afternoon...there may not even be enough
moisture to support convection over the western counties. Will thus
taper off the chc pops from west to east during the course of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After several days of uncomfortably warm weather...it will be much
more pleasant in the wake of the cold front for Tuesday and
Wednesday. H85 temps in the single digits C will only support max
temps in the 70s...which will be close to...if not a couple degrees
below typical late june levels.

While a secondary cold front will present the low probability for a
shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday...the next expansive sfc high
will result in fair weather through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for the 06Z TAF cycle. Surface high
pressure over the central Great Lakes will build eastward into our
region today with clear skies in most areas. Some SCT diurnal
cumulus will develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier
and possibly the Tug Hill and western foothills of the Adirondacks
with bases of 4-5k feet. The diurnal cumulus will dissipate by late
afternoon as the limited low level moisture mixes fully out and the
limited diurnal instability wanes.

Tonight high pressure will remain overhead with SKC in most areas.
Model guidance suggests some limited moisture will drift north out
of PA and reach the western Southern Tier overnight with a few
patches of VFR clouds.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will continue on the lower Great Lakes Today and
Saturday with surface high pressure slowly crossing the region.
Winds will be light northeast in most locations both days with flat
wave action. On Sunday winds will become more southerly and increase
somewhat as high pressure drifts off the east coast, but conditions
will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBGM 240522
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
122 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible over northeast Pennsylvania early this
evening...otherwise quiet weather through tonight. Patchy fog is
possible in the valley locations Friday morning. The dry weather
conditions continue into the weekend, warming well into the 80s
and lower 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 pm update...Fcst on track with just one lgt shwr over xtrm srn
luzerne dropping swrd. Will cont the drying trend for the next cpl
hrs. Made some minor temps and wind adjustments otrw no chgs attm.
Prvs disc blo.

330 pm update...
Trailing upper short wave behind the main low rolling through
the mid-Atlantic will slide quickly through srn NY/PA this evening
with isolated/scattered showers and storms. Weak dynamics will not
support any significant development of this convection...so any
precip will be weak and short lived from around southern Steuben
county into NE PA through 9-10pm this evening.

Will see weak ridging aloft combined with an area of high pressure
at the surface and a slightly drier air mass move in tonight. This
will allow for partly to mostly clear skies tonight along with
cool temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s...and the
possibility of patchy fog in the valley locations. The amount of
dry air in the boundary layer will likely inhibit the potential
for fog...however calm or light winds and residual near-sfc layer
moisture from recent rains combined with cooling sfc temperatures
and a sharp inversion just off the surface leads itself to patchy
fog...especially in the usually areas of the Chemung and
Susquehanna river valleys.

Most of the day Friday will be dry...however there is another
trailing upper trough that may be capable of a few very light rain
showers or sprinkles across the Twin Tiers and southward into NE
PA in the late morning and early afternoon. This feature will be
very progressive and move through rapidly...and also have minor
amts of moisture to work with...so confidence is fairly low.
However...have increased cloud cover across the southern Tier and
into NE PA to account for the passage of this wave.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s...slightly
warmer than the past couple days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

Do you remember the weather last weekend, warm and dry? We will
have a repeat of that again this weekend. 500 MB heights will rise
from 582 DM Saturday to 588 Sunday. 850 Temps in the mid teens
Saturday will support highs well into the 80s, with near 90
readings likely Sunday afternoon as 850s rise closer to +18C. With
high pressure in control our nights will be clear and calm, so we
will rapidly cool off at night back toward 60 degrees. Doesn`t get
much better for late June pure weatherwise, although we could
certainly use a soaking rain for our farmers.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM Update...

Hitting on the last point above and searching for rain, our next
shot will come Monday. Much like what has been the case the past
30 to 60 days, a soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold
front will cross our area Monday with the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. The limiting factor for thunderstorm
development will be the timing of the front as it moves through
early in the day. An upper level trof will dig southward into our
area by mid week with a slightly better chance for scattered
showers and cooler air, with 850s sliding back toward +10C. The
result will be highs dropping back into the 70s or pretty close if
not slightly below late June normals

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally speaking, VFR is expected this TAF period with high
pressure, light wind, and mostly clear sky. Only exception is for
possible MVFR VIS 09Z-11Z this morning at KELM from valley fog.
Lack of recent rain and dry air mass should prevent anything
worse from occurring. Also, a few-sct cumulus field is expected
to develop at 5-7 kft agl today especially for KAVP and to a
lesser degree KELM- KITH-KBGM. Winds throughout the period light
east or variable 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DGM
NEAR TERM...BJT/DGM
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KBGM 240522
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
122 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers are possible over northeast Pennsylvania early this
evening...otherwise quiet weather through tonight. Patchy fog is
possible in the valley locations Friday morning. The dry weather
conditions continue into the weekend, warming well into the 80s
and lower 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 pm update...Fcst on track with just one lgt shwr over xtrm srn
luzerne dropping swrd. Will cont the drying trend for the next cpl
hrs. Made some minor temps and wind adjustments otrw no chgs attm.
Prvs disc blo.

330 pm update...
Trailing upper short wave behind the main low rolling through
the mid-Atlantic will slide quickly through srn NY/PA this evening
with isolated/scattered showers and storms. Weak dynamics will not
support any significant development of this convection...so any
precip will be weak and short lived from around southern Steuben
county into NE PA through 9-10pm this evening.

Will see weak ridging aloft combined with an area of high pressure
at the surface and a slightly drier air mass move in tonight. This
will allow for partly to mostly clear skies tonight along with
cool temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s...and the
possibility of patchy fog in the valley locations. The amount of
dry air in the boundary layer will likely inhibit the potential
for fog...however calm or light winds and residual near-sfc layer
moisture from recent rains combined with cooling sfc temperatures
and a sharp inversion just off the surface leads itself to patchy
fog...especially in the usually areas of the Chemung and
Susquehanna river valleys.

Most of the day Friday will be dry...however there is another
trailing upper trough that may be capable of a few very light rain
showers or sprinkles across the Twin Tiers and southward into NE
PA in the late morning and early afternoon. This feature will be
very progressive and move through rapidly...and also have minor
amts of moisture to work with...so confidence is fairly low.
However...have increased cloud cover across the southern Tier and
into NE PA to account for the passage of this wave.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s...slightly
warmer than the past couple days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

Do you remember the weather last weekend, warm and dry? We will
have a repeat of that again this weekend. 500 MB heights will rise
from 582 DM Saturday to 588 Sunday. 850 Temps in the mid teens
Saturday will support highs well into the 80s, with near 90
readings likely Sunday afternoon as 850s rise closer to +18C. With
high pressure in control our nights will be clear and calm, so we
will rapidly cool off at night back toward 60 degrees. Doesn`t get
much better for late June pure weatherwise, although we could
certainly use a soaking rain for our farmers.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
245 PM Update...

Hitting on the last point above and searching for rain, our next
shot will come Monday. Much like what has been the case the past
30 to 60 days, a soaking rain does not appear to be likely. A cold
front will cross our area Monday with the potential for showers
and thunderstorms. The limiting factor for thunderstorm
development will be the timing of the front as it moves through
early in the day. An upper level trof will dig southward into our
area by mid week with a slightly better chance for scattered
showers and cooler air, with 850s sliding back toward +10C. The
result will be highs dropping back into the 70s or pretty close if
not slightly below late June normals

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally speaking, VFR is expected this TAF period with high
pressure, light wind, and mostly clear sky. Only exception is for
possible MVFR VIS 09Z-11Z this morning at KELM from valley fog.
Lack of recent rain and dry air mass should prevent anything
worse from occurring. Also, a few-sct cumulus field is expected
to develop at 5-7 kft agl today especially for KAVP and to a
lesser degree KELM- KITH-KBGM. Winds throughout the period light
east or variable 5 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR except pre-dawn valley fog
restrictions for KELM.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Chance of showers-thunder and
associated brief restrictions as slow moving front moves through.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DGM
NEAR TERM...BJT/DGM
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...MDP




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240510
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
110 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region
through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front
will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A dense fog advisory for Suffolk county on Long Island has been
issued, as widespread dense fog is being reported by automated
systems. No other changes were made to the forecast. Skies will
clear as a cold front moves south and shortwave trough passes
offshore.

Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low
60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island
Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid
level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to
a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro,
but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees
above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most
places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east.
Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on
Atlantic facing beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and
slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high
pressure builds to the north.

Other than a brief period of IFR and MVFR conditions across
some southern coastal terminals until late tonight, VFR
conditions are expected overnight.

Winds will be mainly light and variable overnight. After 6-8z,
expect winds to become north/northeast with speeds increasing
towards 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then more
southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals are
more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island
Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning.
Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip
will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front
passes through.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ078>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman/DS
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JE/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240501
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
101 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure builds into the North Country tonight, afternoon
fair weather clouds will trend towards clear skies with overnight
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. With high
pressure dominating through the weekend, warm sunny days and cool
moonlit nights will be the rule. Temperatures will be on a warming
trend, with near normal highs in the 70s on Friday, warming into
the 80s Saturday with some spots hitting 90 on Sunday. The next
chance for appreciable rain will be Monday and Tuesday when a slow
moving cold front moves west to east across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1258 AM EDT Friday...Current forecast is on track and no
changes with this update. Surface high pressure over the northern
Great Lakes will build ewd across the North Country overnight.
Looking for mainly clear skies with light and variable winds for
the overnight hours. This will set up ideal conditions for
radiational cooling, and with temps aloft similar to last night
have just gone a couple degrees cooler than this morning`s lows
which will range from the mid 40s to low 50s, except isolated
upper 30s in the colder hollows of the northern Adirondacks. Can`t
rule out some patchy fog across central/ern VT valleys and within
the valleys of the nrn Adirondack region.

Surface high pressure remains under control to end the work week
on Friday. Building heights and plenty of sunshine along with mean
925mb temps of +17-20C will support max temps in the mid 70s to
low 80s, which is right about normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure will
remain over Northern New York and Vermont from Friday night
through Saturday night. Dry and warm weather is expected during
this time period. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Upper level ridge also builds over the weekend
and heights increase through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes for the long
term portion of the forecast this afternoon. High pressure remains
over Northern New York and Vermont for Sunday and we will have
another warm and dry day with temps reaching the lower 90s in some
spots. Models are still indicating a couple of cold fronts
crossing our forecast area Monday and again on Tuesday. The timing
of these fronts will be key for possibility of any instability and
thunderstorms. Models still not showing much consistency on timing
of these fronts. The front on Tuesday still looks like the
stronger of the two fronts which would have better potential for
some instability developing but will have to watch timing of these
fronts. Following an active weather start to the work week,
quieter and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected at all sites
except possible fog development at KSLK and KMPV. Have included
TEMPOs for MVFR visibilities starting around 08Z. With min
temperatures expected to reach or fall below the cross over
temperature at these two sites and high pressure building over the
area, patchy fog is possible.

Expect VFR conditions at all sites by sunrise and persisting
throughout the day Friday.

Calm winds with exception of KRUT which will experience drainage
flow out of the SE at 4-8kts. Wind to become generally nw 5kts
mid- late morning except KPBG likely feeling the affects of lake
breeze will have winds out of the E-SE.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...

00Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240501
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
101 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure builds into the North Country tonight, afternoon
fair weather clouds will trend towards clear skies with overnight
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. With high
pressure dominating through the weekend, warm sunny days and cool
moonlit nights will be the rule. Temperatures will be on a warming
trend, with near normal highs in the 70s on Friday, warming into
the 80s Saturday with some spots hitting 90 on Sunday. The next
chance for appreciable rain will be Monday and Tuesday when a slow
moving cold front moves west to east across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1258 AM EDT Friday...Current forecast is on track and no
changes with this update. Surface high pressure over the northern
Great Lakes will build ewd across the North Country overnight.
Looking for mainly clear skies with light and variable winds for
the overnight hours. This will set up ideal conditions for
radiational cooling, and with temps aloft similar to last night
have just gone a couple degrees cooler than this morning`s lows
which will range from the mid 40s to low 50s, except isolated
upper 30s in the colder hollows of the northern Adirondacks. Can`t
rule out some patchy fog across central/ern VT valleys and within
the valleys of the nrn Adirondack region.

Surface high pressure remains under control to end the work week
on Friday. Building heights and plenty of sunshine along with mean
925mb temps of +17-20C will support max temps in the mid 70s to
low 80s, which is right about normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure will
remain over Northern New York and Vermont from Friday night
through Saturday night. Dry and warm weather is expected during
this time period. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Upper level ridge also builds over the weekend
and heights increase through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes for the long
term portion of the forecast this afternoon. High pressure remains
over Northern New York and Vermont for Sunday and we will have
another warm and dry day with temps reaching the lower 90s in some
spots. Models are still indicating a couple of cold fronts
crossing our forecast area Monday and again on Tuesday. The timing
of these fronts will be key for possibility of any instability and
thunderstorms. Models still not showing much consistency on timing
of these fronts. The front on Tuesday still looks like the
stronger of the two fronts which would have better potential for
some instability developing but will have to watch timing of these
fronts. Following an active weather start to the work week,
quieter and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected at all sites
except possible fog development at KSLK and KMPV. Have included
TEMPOs for MVFR visibilities starting around 08Z. With min
temperatures expected to reach or fall below the cross over
temperature at these two sites and high pressure building over the
area, patchy fog is possible.

Expect VFR conditions at all sites by sunrise and persisting
throughout the day Friday.

Calm winds with exception of KRUT which will experience drainage
flow out of the SE at 4-8kts. Wind to become generally nw 5kts
mid- late morning except KPBG likely feeling the affects of lake
breeze will have winds out of the E-SE.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...

00Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hanson




000
FXUS61 KALY 240417
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1217 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies are expected to be mainly clear for the remainder of the overnight
hours with winds becoming light and variable to calm. This set up
will allow for another night with below normal temperatures but
not quite as cool as last night. Looking at lows from mainly the
mid 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As upstream upper level impulses move across the region on Friday,
expect some cloud coverage to accompany these waves. Due to those
clouds from time to time, MOS guidance continues to suggest
afternoon highs for valley locations to range between 80-85F with
75-80F for the terrain. A light northerly wind should prevail at
less than 10KTS.

Well, it would appear a relative big bubble no trouble for this
last weekend of June (but first full weekend of summer). Guidance
is in excellent agreement with the 1020MB surface high sliding
across the region with building heights aloft. This too will
result in a gradual thermal profile moderation as highs slowly add
a few degrees each day. As for overnight lows, with the gradual
increase in low level moisture as the surface high slides off the
Atlantic shoreline, we will too see a moderation with overnight
lows mainly into the 50s with 55-60F Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The region will be under the influence of ridging at the surface
and aloft Sunday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be warm in the
teens and with abundant sunshine expect a very warm/hot day. Expecting
highs mainly in the 80s with around 90 degrees/into the lower 90s in
portions of the Hudson River Valley including the Capital District.

The ridge will weaken as heights begin to fall as an upper level low
moving eastward just to the north of the United States/Canadian heads
into Great Lakes Region. This closed low is expected to open as is moves
across eastern Canada Monday. Chances for convection should be mainly
limited to the northwest portion of the forecast area across the southern
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley area closer to the upper level support.
However do have slight chance pops across the rest of the area as can`t
rule out isolated convection. Monday will not be as warm as Sunday due
to increase cloud cover.

Additional short-wave energy over-topping the ridge axis to the west
will enter the trough causing it to deepening as it moves gradually
eastward across the northeast through the middle of the week. A couple
of cold fronts are expected to move through triggering widespread chances
for convection Monday night into Tuesday night. Best chances will be
during the day on Tuesday and with the warm/humid air mass will need
to watch for the potential for any strong storms. However this will be
highly depend on the exact timing of the front and the amount of
instability in place as it approaches and moves through, which is still
far from certain at this time.

The upper trough axis will move over region on Wednesday keeping the
threat of isolated convection in the forecast with the heating of the
day. Near seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 80s.

The flow over the region is expected to become flat for Thursday as
the region is forecast to be between short-wave troughs. Expecting
fair weather with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A batch of clouds will continue to move across the area this
evening, then skies are expected to become clear for the overnight
hours. Low level moisture is not really increasing yet, so the
chances for fog around daybreak remains very low outside of some
isolated patches near swamps and water so have not mentioned fog
in any TAF.

Winds will become light/variable to calm overnight with a
north-northeast flow developing Friday morning. Winds are
expected to remain light through the day however shift to east
during the afternoon. However, at KPSF the light flow Friday is
expected to be more westerly.

Outlook...
Fri Night-Sun Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Mon Night-Tue: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in Friday and is expected to dominate
our weather through the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 30 to 45 percent on Friday afternoon.

Winds will be light from a northerly direction at speeds less than
10 mph through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 240417
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1217 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge of high pressure will be in control of our weather
through the weekend. Gradual warming temperatures are in the
forecast with humidity levels on the rise into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies are expected to be mainly clear for the remainder of the overnight
hours with winds becoming light and variable to calm. This set up
will allow for another night with below normal temperatures but
not quite as cool as last night. Looking at lows from mainly the
mid 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As upstream upper level impulses move across the region on Friday,
expect some cloud coverage to accompany these waves. Due to those
clouds from time to time, MOS guidance continues to suggest
afternoon highs for valley locations to range between 80-85F with
75-80F for the terrain. A light northerly wind should prevail at
less than 10KTS.

Well, it would appear a relative big bubble no trouble for this
last weekend of June (but first full weekend of summer). Guidance
is in excellent agreement with the 1020MB surface high sliding
across the region with building heights aloft. This too will
result in a gradual thermal profile moderation as highs slowly add
a few degrees each day. As for overnight lows, with the gradual
increase in low level moisture as the surface high slides off the
Atlantic shoreline, we will too see a moderation with overnight
lows mainly into the 50s with 55-60F Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The region will be under the influence of ridging at the surface
and aloft Sunday. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be warm in the
teens and with abundant sunshine expect a very warm/hot day. Expecting
highs mainly in the 80s with around 90 degrees/into the lower 90s in
portions of the Hudson River Valley including the Capital District.

The ridge will weaken as heights begin to fall as an upper level low
moving eastward just to the north of the United States/Canadian heads
into Great Lakes Region. This closed low is expected to open as is moves
across eastern Canada Monday. Chances for convection should be mainly
limited to the northwest portion of the forecast area across the southern
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley area closer to the upper level support.
However do have slight chance pops across the rest of the area as can`t
rule out isolated convection. Monday will not be as warm as Sunday due
to increase cloud cover.

Additional short-wave energy over-topping the ridge axis to the west
will enter the trough causing it to deepening as it moves gradually
eastward across the northeast through the middle of the week. A couple
of cold fronts are expected to move through triggering widespread chances
for convection Monday night into Tuesday night. Best chances will be
during the day on Tuesday and with the warm/humid air mass will need
to watch for the potential for any strong storms. However this will be
highly depend on the exact timing of the front and the amount of
instability in place as it approaches and moves through, which is still
far from certain at this time.

The upper trough axis will move over region on Wednesday keeping the
threat of isolated convection in the forecast with the heating of the
day. Near seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 80s.

The flow over the region is expected to become flat for Thursday as
the region is forecast to be between short-wave troughs. Expecting
fair weather with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A batch of clouds will continue to move across the area this
evening, then skies are expected to become clear for the overnight
hours. Low level moisture is not really increasing yet, so the
chances for fog around daybreak remains very low outside of some
isolated patches near swamps and water so have not mentioned fog
in any TAF.

Winds will become light/variable to calm overnight with a
north-northeast flow developing Friday morning. Winds are
expected to remain light through the day however shift to east
during the afternoon. However, at KPSF the light flow Friday is
expected to be more westerly.

Outlook...
Fri Night-Sun Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Mon: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Mon Night-Tue: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in Friday and is expected to dominate
our weather through the weekend.

Relative humidity values will recover to 75 to 95 percent
tonight, and drop to 30 to 45 percent on Friday afternoon.

Winds will be light from a northerly direction at speeds less than
10 mph through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydro problems are expected over the next 5 days. The next
chance of rainfall will come early next week when some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to move across the region ahead of
a cold front.

The latest drought monitor now has most of our region labeled `Abnormally
Dry` (D0). In fact, over the past 30 days, most of our region is
approximately 1-3 inches below normal in terms of rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/11
HYDROLOGY...SND/BGM/11




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240404
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1204 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region
through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front
will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies will clear as a cold front moves south and shortwave trough
passes offshore. Patchy dense fog has developed across eastern
portions of Long Island under the clear skies. A special weather
statement has been issued, and the forecast has been updated.

Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low
60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island
Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid
level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to
a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro,
but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees
above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most
places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east.
Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on
Atlantic facing beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and
slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high
pressure builds to the north.

Other than a brief period of IFR and MVFR conditions across
some southern coastal terminals until late tonight, VFR
conditions are expected overnight.

Winds will be mainly light and variable overnight. After 6-8z,
expect winds to become north/northeast with speeds increasing
towards 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then more
southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals are
more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island
Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning.
Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip
will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front
passes through.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...JMC/Goodman/DS
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JE/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240249
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region
through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front
will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers have dissipated with loss of heating and passage of
shortwave trough. Best lift is passing south across the Middle
Atlantic so do not expect any new activity to develop overnight.
Frontal boundary still remaining nearly stationary across the
southern portion of the area, but should sink south overnight.

Skies will clear as the front moves south and shortwave trough
passes offshore.

Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low
60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island
Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid
level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to
a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro,
but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees
above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most
places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east.
Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on
Atlantic facing beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and
slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high
pressure builds to the north.

Other than a brief period of IFR and MVFR conditions across
some southern coastal terminals until late tonight, VFR
conditions are expected overnight.

Winds will be mainly light and variable overnight. After 6-8z,
expect winds to become north/northeast with speeds increasing
towards 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east, then more
southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals are
more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island
Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning.
Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip
will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front
passes through.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...Goodman/DS
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JE/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 240227
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1027 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure builds into the North Country tonight, afternoon
fair weather clouds will trend towards clear skies with overnight
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. With high
pressure dominating through the weekend, warm sunny days and cool
moonlit nights will be the rule. Temperatures will be on a warming
trend, with near normal highs in the 70s on Friday, warming into
the 80s Saturday with some spots hitting 90 on Sunday. The next
chance for appreciable rain will be Monday and Tuesday when a slow
moving cold front moves west to east across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
As of 1025 PM EDT Thursday...Current forecast is on track. Surface
high pressure over the northern Great Lakes will build ewd across
the North Country overnight. Looking for mainly clear skies with
light and variable winds for the overnight hours. This will set
up ideal conditions for radiational cooling, and with temps aloft
similar to last night have just gone a couple degrees cooler than
this morning`s lows which will range from the mid 40s to low 50s,
except isolated upper 30s in the colder hollows of the northern
Adirondacks. Can`t rule out some patchy fog across central/ern VT
valleys and within the valleys of the nrn Adirondack region.

Surface high pressure remains under control to end the work week
on Friday. Building heights and plenty of sunshine along with mean
925mb temps of +17-20C will support max temps in the mid 70s to
low 80s, which is right about normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...Ridge of surface high pressure will
remain over Northern New York and Vermont from Friday night
through Saturday night. Dry and warm weather is expected during
this time period. Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Upper level ridge also builds over the weekend
and heights increase through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes for the long
term portion of the forecast this afternoon. High pressure remains
over Northern New York and Vermont for Sunday and we will have
another warm and dry day with temps reaching the lower 90s in some
spots. Models are still indicating a couple of cold fronts
crossing our forecast area Monday and again on Tuesday. The timing
of these fronts will be key for possibility of any instability and
thunderstorms. Models still not showing much consistency on timing
of these fronts. The front on Tuesday still looks like the
stronger of the two fronts which would have better potential for
some instability developing but will have to watch timing of these
fronts. Following an active weather start to the work week,
quieter and more seasonable weather will return for the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions expected at all sites
except possible fog development at KSLK and KMPV. Have included
TEMPOs for MVFR visibilities starting around 08Z. With min
temperatures expected to reach or fall below the cross over
temperature at these two sites and high pressure building over the
area, patchy fog is possible.

Expect VFR conditions at all sites by sunrise and persisting
throughout the day Friday.

Winds out of the N-NW at 10kts or less will become calm in the
next couple hours, with exception of KRUT which will experience
drainage flow out of the SE at 4-8kts. Calm winds overnight will
increase to around 5kts out of the NW by mid-late morning. KPBG
likely feeling the affects of lake breeze will have winds out of
the E-SE.

Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday...

00Z Saturday through 12Z Monday...VFR under high pressure.
12Z Monday through 00Z Wednesday...VFR with chance MVFR/IFR in
showers and possible thunderstorms along a cold front passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBUF 240218
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1018 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions will remain dry and increasingly warm across Western and
North-Central New York through this weekend as high pressure will
dominate the region. A cold front crossing the region Sunday night
into Monday will bring the next chance for rain followed by cooler
temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clear skies overnight will lead to decent radiational cooling,
dropping low temperatures into the 50s. The clear skies will
persist at least through Friday as high pressure builds overhead
the Lower Great Lakes. 850mb temps rising to around +13C should
yield highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with slightly cooler
readings in the low 70s along the Lake Ontario shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mother Nature has guaranteed us very warm and dry weather for the
bulk of the weekend...as a progressive low amplitude ridge will
cross the region. Sfc high pressure that will be anchored off Nova
Scotia will circulate increasingly warm and humid air northwards
in the process...so that temperatures will reach into the mid to
upper 80s on Saturday and within a degree of so of 90 for Sunday.

By the end of the weekend...the table will be set for some
thunderstorms as an unstable airmass will be lying in wait for an
approaching cold front. This front will cross our region in `pieces`
with the first boundary coming through Sunday night. PWAT values
over the western counties will surge to nearly 2 inches immediately
ahead of this first boundary...so there will be somewhat of a risk
for heavier than normal downpours.

While Monday could be somewhat unsettled with the `real` cold front
moving across the region...the plume of moisture that would have
supported more robust convection the previous night will be exiting
across New England. By the afternoon...there may not even be enough
moisture to support convection over the western counties. Will thus
taper off the chc pops from west to east during the course of the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After several days of uncomfortably warm weather...it will be much
more pleasant in the wake of the cold front for Tuesday and
Wednesday. H85 temps in the single digits C will only support max
temps in the 70s...which will be close to...if not a couple degrees
below typical late june levels.

While a secondary cold front will present the low probability for a
shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday...the next expansive sfc high
will result in fair weather through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with clear
skies as high pressure builds over the region. The clear skies will
then persist through the balance of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday Night through Sunday...VFR.
Sunday Night through Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions will persist on the lakes through the coming
weekend as high pressure builds overhead the region. Southerly winds
will freshen Sunday night ahead of an approaching cold front,
allowing waves to build to around 3 feet across northeastern
portions of the lake. Winds will veer westerly behind the front
Monday, resulting in a light to moderate chop on the eastern ends of
the lakes next week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 240136
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
936 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves south tonight as high pressure builds
from the northwest. The high will then remain over the region
through the weekend, and pass east early next week. A cold front
will impact the region toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers have dissipated with loss of heating and passage of
shortwave trough. Best lift is passing south across the Middle
Atlantic so do not expect any new activity to develop overnight.
Frontal boundary still remaining nearly stationary across the
southern portion of the area, but should sink south overnight.

Skies will clear as the front moves south and shortwave trough
passes offshore.

Lows will range from the mid 60s in the NYC/NJ metro to the low
60s near the coast. Temperatures in the interior and Long Island
Pine Barrens will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build in on Friday. Another mid
level trough will pass to the south on Friday which could lead to
a period of mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon across NYC metro,
but expect dry conditions. High temps are a couple of degrees
above the warmer MOS guidance numbers, with lower/mid 80s in most
places, and upper 70s along south facing shorelines out east.
Low temps Friday night should be similar to those forecast for
tonight.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today on
Atlantic facing beaches on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and west on Saturday and
slowly moves overhead on Sunday before moving offshore on Monday.
Temperatures this weekend will slowly warm into the 80s each day,
possibly touching 90 north and west of NYC Sunday and Monday. In
addition, a light pressure gradient and the combination of warm land
temp and relative cooler water temps will likely result in afternoon
seabreezes. Highs along the coast may only reach the lower 80s.

A cold front approaches on Monday, slowly working its way across the
Northeast from Monday night through Tuesday night. Cold front
should be clear of the region by Wednesday. Will continue to carry
chance POP for showers and thunderstorms for the passage of this
front.

Drier weather returns for the end of the week as high pressure
builds back over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure passes to the south tonight and Friday as high
pressure builds to the north.

VFR through the TAF period. Shower activity to the north and west
this evening has dissipated and any activity stays to our
southwest overnight.

Light S/SE winds go to light and variable into the overnight.
After 6-8z, expect winds to become north/northeast with speeds
increasing towards 12z Friday morning. Winds veer to the east,
then more southeast during the afternoon. South coastal terminals
more likely to see southeast winds sooner during the afternoon.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then further to the southeast by
afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east, then further to the southeast by
afternoon. Timing of southeast winds may vary by 1-2 hours
compared to neighboring terminals.

KEWR TAF Comments: Northeast winds increase by 12z Friday
morning. Winds veer to the east by afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Night-Sunday night...VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms late.
.Monday night-Tuesday...Sub-VFR possible in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through early next week. The ocean waters west of Fire Island
Inlet could see some wind gusts close to 25 kt Friday morning.
Also, some onshore wind gusts to 20 kt are possible both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon as sea breezes develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rainfall through Monday. The next chance for precip
will be Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold front
passes through.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/MPS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JE/NV
MARINE...Goodman/MPS
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/MPS




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