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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241156
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVERHEAD TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL READ BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS NEAR PLATTSBURGH
AND SOME THIN CIRRUS WORKING OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING A DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. DEW POINTS ARE READING IN THE
TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORES AS OF 12Z.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...850MB TEMPS OF -3C TO -5C ALOFT WILL KEEP
SURFACE HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS THE TUG
HILL WHERE LOW TO MID 40S ARE EXPECTED. DIURNAL MIXING OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS DROPPING A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN SPOTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO
THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE WELL INLAND BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF ONLY 10-15
KNOTS ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
BUT EXPECT THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS WNY BUT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER WINDS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL HELP TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A DRY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING
SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE LOW
WILL WELL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING
A NORTHERN SURFACE CIRCULATION THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS HIGHER THAN ELSEWHERE. NONETHELESS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO  RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A EVEN SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR A CLEARING/DRYING TREND TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE MIDWEST. LINGERING COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE THIS
FEATURE WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL AN EXTENDED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS THE BROAD LOW MEANDERS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT`S
PROGRESSION INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING THE FASTER
OF THE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF/GEM ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
FORECAST TILTING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SPEED. NEVERTHELESS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL
AND WET WEATHER DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST AND THIS
WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS
HAS BROUGHT LIGHTER WINDS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED. LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE SHORES
ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE NEARSHORE FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST
15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES WITH LOWER GUSTS FURTHER WEST. WHILE THE RH VALUES WILL
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...THE WINDS WILL BE JUST SHY OF CRITERIA.
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITHIN THE PAST
48-HOURS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST. FINE FUEL MOISTURES ARE
RUNNING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT BUT 1000 HOUR FUELS ARE OVER 20
PERCENT. BASED ON THESE DETAILS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY MEET
ALL RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH







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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS IN SO LOCATIONS OF 20-25KTS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SLOW TO
ERODE FROM NRN VT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
AS MUCH...BUT AREAS EXPECTING LOWEST RH ALREADY CLEAR ACROSS SRN
HALF OF CPV AND SRN VT. WITH GUSTS ALREADY 20-25KTS THIS
MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST IN
EXCESS OF 45MPH THIS AFTN IN SERN VT. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET
OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 1130Z THURSDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH
VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH ISOLATED
READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

WILL CONTINUE T0 HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN HWO...AS WELL AS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM







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000
FXUS61 KALY 241141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 620 AM EDT...A CLEAR BUT BRISK DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
AT GLENS FALLS WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH!  OTHER AREAS GENERALLY
SEEING WIND GUSTING IN THE 20S. SO IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.

THE WIND HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...AS THEY
GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

THE WIND WAS THE RESULT OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WITH US MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...CANOPY OF
HIGHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON.  THOSE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 241139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SUNNY AND WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX
WIND SPEED IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW
40KT. PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY
AT ANY PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

NW WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT.
WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC








  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBGM 241050
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WAA
ALOFT AS AN UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS WARMER BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 50S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 0C. AFTER THE LL INVERSION BREAKS BY 10 AM WILL BE WELL
MIXED. BOMBING LOW MOVING SLOWLY PAST NOVA SCOTIA TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ENOUGH WIND FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

TONIGHT UNDER A NORTH TO SOUTH STRETCHED SURFACE HIGH. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO COME IN AHEAD OF A
STRONG STACKED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG SFC LOW ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE
IF MODELS SLOW DOWN CLOUDS. DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTN AND MIGHT NOT
START ALONG I81 UNTIL SUNSET. STRONG STACKED LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO DURING THE AFTN. THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE FRI NGT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS ERN PA WITH AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS NY. PWATS RETURN
TO AROUND 1 INCH...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.
DEEP LIFT BUT LL INSTABILITY NIL SO CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK WITH
NO TSTORMS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN NY.

SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE.
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI TODAY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 AM UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHER
WEST THE WINDS WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. IN THE FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST
5 DAYS. TODAY MIN RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. 10 HOUR FUELS
WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 8 AND 10
AM AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN. WINDS START TO DROP
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENT SRN TIER MID AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 MPH AND DO NOT RETURN TO THE SAME
STRENGTH AS TODAY UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH FRIDAY AFTN
DOES FALL TO UNDER 30 PERCENT BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
WEEKEND THREAT LOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KALY 241028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 620 AM EDT...A CLEAR BUT BRISK DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
AT GLENS FALLS WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH!  OTHER AREAS GENERALLY
SEEING WIND GUSTING IN THE 20S. SO IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.

THE WIND HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...AS THEY
GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

THE WIND WAS THE RESULT OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WITH US MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

     WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE
GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 241026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS IN SO LOCATIONS OF 20-25KTS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SLOW TO
ERODE FROM NRN VT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
AS MUCH...BUT AREAS EXPECTING LOWEST RH ALREADY CLEAR ACROSS SRN
HALF OF CPV AND SRN VT. WITH GUSTS ALREADY 20-25KTS THIS
MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST IN
EXCESS OF 45MPH THIS AFTN IN SERN VT. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET
OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH
VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH ISOLATED
READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

WILL CONTINUE T0 HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN HWO...AS WELL AS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 240905
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
505 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN
VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE
CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT
SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH
VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH ISOLATED
READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

WILL CONTINUE T0 HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN HWO...AS WELL AS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVERHEAD TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL READ BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS ON SATURDAY WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING A DRY AND CHILLY
AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. DEW POINTS ARE READING
IN THE TEENS INLAND TO LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORES AS OF 08Z.
THE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS
FROM PLUMMETING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING. AREA SURFACE OBS
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AT 08Z AND WILL DROP A FEW
MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TODAY BUT 850MB
TEMPS OF -3C TO -5C ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPS TOPPED OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE LOW TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED. DIURNAL MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
DROPPING A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF ONLY 10-15
KNOTS ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
EXPECT THAT RAIN LARGELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS WNY BUT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER
WINDS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A DRY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING
SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE LOW
WILL WELL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING
A NORTHERN SURFACE CIRCULATION THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS HIGHER THAN ELSEWHERE. NONETHELESS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO  RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A EVEN SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR A CLEARING/DRYING TREND TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE MIDWEST. LINGERING COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE THIS
FEATURE WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL AN EXTENDED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS THE BROAD LOW MEANDERS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT`S
PROGRESSION INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING THE FASTER
OF THE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF/GEM ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
FORECAST TILTING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SPEED. NEVERTHELESS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL
AND WET WEATHER DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST AND THIS
WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS
HAS BROUGHT LIGHTER WINDS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED. LIGHT WINDS AND WAVE ACTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT
THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE SHORES
ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM THE NEARSHORE FORECAST
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP RELATIVIE HUMIDITIES DROP
INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST 15 TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO...BUT JUST SHY OF... RED FLAG
CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITHIN
THE PAST 48-HOURS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST. FINE FUEL
MOISTURES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT BUT 1000 HOUR FUELS
ARE OVER 20 PERCENT. BASED ON THESE DETAILS WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240844
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUNNY AND
WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX WIND SPEED
IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW 40KT. PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT ANY
PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KT BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL RAMP BACK UP
AFTER 12Z WITH SIMILAR GUSTS TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON WED...UP
TO ABOUT 40 KT. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS
WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240830
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO
SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ENTIRE COLUMN. WAA
ALOFT AS AN UL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS WARMER BUT STILL ONLY IN THE 50S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 0C. AFTER THE LL INVERSION BREAKS BY 10 AM WILL BE WELL
MIXED. BOMBING LOW MOVING SLOWLY PAST NOVA SCOTIA TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 25 WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ENOUGH WIND FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

TONIGHT UNDER A NORTH TO SOUTH STRETCHED SURFACE HIGH. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO COME IN AHEAD OF A
STRONG STACKED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG SFC LOW ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME MORE
IF MODELS SLOW DOWN CLOUDS. DELAYED POPS UNTIL AFTN AND MIGHT NOT
START ALONG I81 UNTIL SUNSET. STRONG STACKED LOW MOVES EAST INTO
OHIO DURING THE AFTN. THE BEST PRECIP WILL BE FRI NGT AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS ERN PA WITH AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS NY. PWATS RETURN
TO AROUND 1 INCH...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNDER HALF AN INCH.
DEEP LIFT BUT LL INSTABILITY NIL SO CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK WITH
NO TSTORMS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE LOW WILL WRAP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THE BEST AMOUNTS IN NY.

SAT NGT SHOWERS START TO PULL OUT WITH THE BEST CHC IN THE FAR NE.
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WITH CAA. RAIN SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE NEXT TO NOTHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3 AM UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING IN THE SAME AREA. FURTHER
WEST THE WINDS WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. IN THE FAR NORTH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE LAST
5 DAYS. TODAY MIN RH FALLS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. 10 HOUR FUELS
WILL FALL TO UNDER 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL PICK UP BETWEEN 8 AND 10
AM AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE AFTN. WINDS START TO DROP
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES AND CENT SRN TIER MID AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

TONIGHT WINDS DROP TO UNDER 10 MPH AND DO NOT RETURN TO THE SAME
STRENGTH AS TODAY UNTIL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MIN RH FRIDAY AFTN
DOES FALL TO UNDER 30 PERCENT BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
WEEKEND THREAT LOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...TAC





000
FXUS61 KALY 240809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THEME OF THE DAY...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
30S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...30-35 TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR AREA WAS
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
THE WIND WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BY DAYBREAK. THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST TO 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY MAINLY
WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT SNEAK
INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE
GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 240807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED
5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND
700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER
SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS
WL LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE
NEK ON THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER
CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
FRIDAY AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS
MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE
ATLANTIC THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE
SUPER BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND
AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE
FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP
HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR
STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR
SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN
LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN
RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY
ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD
VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUNNY AND
WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX WIND SPEED
IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW 40KT. PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT ANY
PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

GUSTS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT....BUT THEN RAMP
BACK TO AROUND 35 KT AFTER 12Z. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240705
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS AND CAPPED POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW.

315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG
PICTURE. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED
TO EXPAND FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE...AND TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
DEVIL...OF COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED
5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND
700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER
SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS
WL LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE
NEK ON THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER
CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
FRIDAY AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND
AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE
FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP
HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR
STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR
SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN
LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN
RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY
ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD
VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240610
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

GUSTS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT....BUT THEN RAMP
BACK TO AROUND 35 KT AFTER 12Z. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KBUF 240554
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP CLEAR STARLIT
SKIES REGION WIDE.

THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AND CHILLY AIRMASS. DEW
POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AT OF 06Z BUT A LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA SURFACE OBS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S AT 06Z AND SHOULD DROP TO THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS AND LOW 30S CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORES BEFORE SUNRISE.

ALBEIT IT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...THURSDAY IS SLATED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION AND SUPPLY US WITH SUN FILLED
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S...
WITH 40S ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A BREEZE OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT THE RISE IN MERCURY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TILL
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FINGER
LAKES REGION TOWARDS EVENING. A STILL PRESENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD IT WILL RETURN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPIRALS EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN...POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS -3 TO -5C WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO AGAIN
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO THE WEST...BUT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S TO THE EAST WHERE THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS WILL REACH LAST.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A CHILLY DAY SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APRIL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY A MONTH WHEN CUT OFF LOWS FORM MORE
OFTEN...AND MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH THEIR
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD AS TWO CUT
OFF LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EASTERN LOW
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A SECOND AND MORE TRANSVERSE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO CUT OFF LOW
FEATURES AND WHERE THIS RIDGE LIES...IT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BUILDING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE 3-DAY PERIOD. SOME PERIPHERY BANDS OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW POSSIBLY BRUSHING BY THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND OUTER BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE SLOWLY NEARING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST REACHING
TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SKINNY IN NATURE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT OF A PROLONG NICE DRY STRETCH...AS SOMETIME CAN HAPPEN IN
A MORE CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. FOR NOW SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL HAVE
THE LOWEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST REACHING WNY...WITH A
GREATER CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE PLAINS NEARING THERE WILL BE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CUT OFF LOW...AND THOUGH
WE MAY BE A BIT CLOUDIER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE
50S...AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. SUSPECT MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIT TOO HIGH...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE CLOSE (BUT
JUST SHY) OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST.
FINER FUELS MAY DRY OUT MORE QUICKLY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 240539
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING BY MID MORNING TO 12-18
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING TO 5-8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...VFR.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 240514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED
5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND
700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER
SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS
WL LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE
NEK ON THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER
CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
FRIDAY AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER
OUT LATER IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28
KT GUSTS DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z
AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS
FROM THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND
AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE
FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP
HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR
STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR
SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN
LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN
RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY
ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD
VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 240509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED ALL SHOWERS ARE OVER AND IN
FACT...THE SKY WAS CLEARING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE BREEZE REMAINS UP
AND WILL DO DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
(BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGH) WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT WILL MEAN LOWS
WILL END UP BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH.
THE BREEZE WILL MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THESE VALUES AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5
DAYS/...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 240500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED ALL SHOWERS ARE OVER AND IN
FACT...THE SKY WAS CLEARING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE BREEZE REMAINS UP
AND WILL DO DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
(BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGH) WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT WILL MEAN LOWS
WILL END UP BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH.
THE BREEZE WILL MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THESE VALUES AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5
DAYS/...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM










000
FXUS61 KOKX 240431
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...35 TO 38
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 KT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...NW GUSTS ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$









000
FXUS61 KBTV 240225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO KEEP
FORECAST CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS.
WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH...WITH CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. CLEARING LINE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IT TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SLOWED CLEARING A BIT FROM ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. THE THREAT OF ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT CHANCES CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS FORECAST INDICATES. ANY PCPN
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NO CHANGES TO MIN TEMP FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...EXCEPT 20S
IN ADIRONDACKS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY
LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY
MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS
TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV 4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP
THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU
06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK
TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND
20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT
SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ARE ABOUT GONE...AND CLOUD COVER IS ERODING FROM WEST TO
EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WINDS
WILL STAY UP. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC. BELOW...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240208
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1008 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE CLEAR STARLIT SKIES
REGIONWIDE.

THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRESH CHILLY AIRMASS. AN
ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 30S
ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT POISED JUST TO OUR NORTH ARE TD`S IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. SOME OF THIS DRY CHILLY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...AND WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED...MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE COLDEST
SRN TIER VALLEYS TO NEAR 32 ALONG THE LAKE SHORES. THESE READINGS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

ALBEIT IT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...THURSDAY IS SLATED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION AND SUPPLY US WITH SUN FILLED
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S...
WITH 40S ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A BREEZE OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT THE RISE IN MERCURY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TILL
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FINGER
LAKES REGION TOWARDS EVENING. A STILL PRESENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD IT WILL RETURN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPIRALS EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN...POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS -3 TO -5C WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO AGAIN
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO THE WEST...BUT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S TO THE EAST WHERE THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS WILL REACH LAST.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A CHILLY DAY SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APRIL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY A MONTH WHEN CUT OFF LOWS FORM MORE
OFTEN...AND MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH THEIR
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD AS TWO CUT
OFF LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EASTERN LOW
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A SECOND AND MORE TRANSVERSE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO CUT OFF LOW
FEATURES AND WHERE THIS RIDGE LIES...IT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BUILDING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE 3-DAY PERIOD. SOME PERIPHERY BANDS OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW POSSIBLY BRUSHING BY THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND OUTER BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE SLOWLY NEARING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST REACHING
TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SKINNY IN NATURE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT OF A PROLONG NICE DRY STRETCH...AS SOMETIME CAN HAPPEN IN
A MORE CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. FOR NOW SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL HAVE
THE LOWEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST REACHING WNY...WITH A
GREATER CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE PLAINS NEARING THERE WILL BE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CUT OFF LOW...AND THOUGH
WE MAY BE A BIT CLOUDIER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE
50S...AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORIES
EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. SUSPECT MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIT TOO HIGH...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE CLOSE (BUT
JUST SHY) OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST.
FINER FUELS MAY DRY OUT MORE QUICKLY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/ZAFF
FIRE WEATHER...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240200
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1000 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...35 TO 38
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 KT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...NW GUSTS ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 232346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE
OVERNIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WELL MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT THEY WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF GUSTY WINDS...DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT MUCH...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THURSDAY...A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG
WINDS.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE. DECENT SHOT
AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY
NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS 6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST GUSTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 25
TO 30 KT. GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...35 TO 38
KT...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AROUND 40 KT.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THURSDAY. GUSTS
INCREASE AND AT TIMES MAY APPROACH 40 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU NIGHT...NW GUSTS ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

EARLIER COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS RESULTED IN RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN EARLIER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232346
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
746 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AT 00Z... BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 3-6 KFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS BY
03Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE W-NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-
     046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 232337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AT 00Z... BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 3-6 KFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALL AREAS BY
03Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE W-NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-
     046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 232334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH...WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. CLEARING LINE
APPROACHING SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IT TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH THREAT OF ANY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT CHANCES
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS FORECAST INDICATES.
ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NO CHANGES TO TEMP FORECASTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY
LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY
MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS
TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV 4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP
THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU
06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK
TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND
20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT
SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AROUND...BUT THEY ARE
DRYING UP. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISC. BELOW...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBGM 232318
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
715 PM UPDATE...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AS WE
EXPECT NO MAJOR CHGS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR TMRW...WHICH SHOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WATCH AREA. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WARNING AS A FEW OTHER COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CRITIERA. PREV BLO...


230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-
     040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-
     046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 232301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV
4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT
OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000
FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL
MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING
LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I
REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO
COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBGM 232242
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

640 PM UPDATE...CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES. RESIDUAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE SUSQ RGN AND
WRN CATSKILLS ARE DSPTNG. EROSION OF CLDS MAY SLOW ACRS CNTRL NY
THIS EVNG...BUT OVERALL CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE TREND. MINOR
TWEEKS TO CRNT FCST. PREV BLO...

230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 232147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
547 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL THUS CONTINUE TO CLEAR
OUR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. VIS IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND BY MIDNIGHT...ALL OF THE
REGION WILL BE EXPERIENCING STARLIT CONDITIONS.

THE CLEARING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRESH CHILLY AIRMASS. AN
ISODROSOTHERMAL ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS THAT DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE 30S ACROSS OUR REGION AS WE APPROACH SUNSET...BUT POISED JUST TO
OUR NORTH ARE TD`S IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SOME OF THIS DRY CHILLY AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED...MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
20S IN THE COLDEST SRN TIER VALLEYS TO NEAR 32 ALONG THE LAKE
SHORES. THESE READINGS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

ALBEIT IT A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...THURSDAY IS SLATED TO BE A
BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION AND SUPPLY US WITH SUN FILLED
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S...
WITH 40S ANTICIPATED SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE A BREEZE OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT THE RISE IN MERCURY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TILL
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FINGER
LAKES REGION TOWARDS EVENING. A STILL PRESENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD IT WILL RETURN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPIRALS EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN...POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS -3 TO -5C WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO AGAIN
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO THE WEST...BUT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S TO THE EAST WHERE THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS WILL REACH LAST.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A CHILLY DAY SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APRIL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY A MONTH WHEN CUT OFF LOWS FORM MORE
OFTEN...AND MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH THEIR
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD AS TWO CUT
OFF LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EASTERN LOW
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A SECOND AND MORE TRANSVERSE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO CUT OFF LOW
FEATURES AND WHERE THIS RIDGE LIES...IT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BUILDING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE 3-DAY PERIOD. SOME PERIPHERY BANDS OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW POSSIBLY BRUSHING BY THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND OUTER BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE SLOWLY NEARING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST REACHING
TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SKINNY IN NATURE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT OF A PROLONG NICE DRY STRETCH...AS SOMETIME CAN HAPPEN IN
A MORE CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. FOR NOW SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL HAVE
THE LOWEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST REACHING WNY...WITH A
GREATER CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE PLAINS NEARING THERE WILL BE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CUT OFF LOW...AND THOUGH
WE MAY BE A BIT CLOUDIER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE
50S...AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORIES
EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. SUSPECT MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIT TOO HIGH...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE CLOSE (BUT
JUST SHY) OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST.
FINER FUELS MAY DRY OUT MORE QUICKLY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/ZAFF
FIRE WEATHER...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KOKX 232139
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
539 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN COVERED THE TRI-STATE REGION AS OF
LATE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. GIVEN THE WINDS STAYING UP
OVERNIGHT...WENT WITH LOW TEMPS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.  DECENT SHOT AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY
AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS
6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET
WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY MID
TO LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MOSTLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MOSTLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MOSTLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 TRUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU...GUSTY NW WIND AROUND 30KT. GUSTS ENDING DURING EARLY EVENING.
.FRI...VFR. CHC NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS HAVE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$






000
FXUS61 KALY 232037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE
BERKSHIRES MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT WILL CLEAR OUT AS WE
GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 232036
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SUNNY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUN/MON...BEFORE UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN COVERED THE TRI-STATE REGION AS OF
LATE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT...THEY WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCALES IN THE
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. GIVEN THE WINDS STAYING UP
OVERNIGHT...WENT WITH LOW TEMPS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE NUMBERS
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

A SUNNY...WINDY AND MILD DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
TOUCH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW. NONETHELESS...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY. A SUPER ADIABATIC ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
IT WILL FEEL COOLER GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

DIMINISHING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...EXCEPT MILDER IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
AROUND NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ON THE ISLAND AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S ELSEWHERE.  DECENT SHOT AT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN HEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IT MAY TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE BUT PATTERN MAY TURN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY
AT TIMES. THIS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. ITS CERTAINLY NOT A LOCK THOUGH AS THIS IS
6 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE...BUT A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL/WET
WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS
GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER
OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONTACTS HAVE UPGRADED TO RED
FLAG WARNING/S ON THURSDAY FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND ALL OF LONG ISLAND. ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HELD
ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHERE THERE WAS SOME RAIN TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED. PLENTY OF TIME
THOUGH FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO REVIEW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK
FIRE WEATHER...FRANK
HYDROLOGY...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
PRECIPITATION IS DRYING UP AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO LAKE
ERIE...THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.  RESIDUAL
LOW CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
TO WIN OUT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEAR OR CLEARING PERIOD AROUND SUNSET WITH
PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...BUT COOLER JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TILL
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ANY THUNDER...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FINGER
LAKES REGION TOWARDS EVENING. A STILL PRESENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE EVENING...AND AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD IT WILL RETURN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPIRALS EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN...POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS -3 TO -5C WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO AGAIN
MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 TO THE WEST...BUT
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S TO THE EAST WHERE THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS WILL REACH LAST.

FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A CHILLY DAY SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
APRIL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY A MONTH WHEN CUT OFF LOWS FORM MORE
OFTEN...AND MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN THE EXTENDED WITH THEIR
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TO START THIS TIME PERIOD AS TWO CUT
OFF LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO BEGIN THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EASTERN LOW
WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A SECOND AND MORE TRANSVERSE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SLIDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

A SKINNY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THESE TWO CUT OFF LOW
FEATURES AND WHERE THIS RIDGE LIES...IT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
BUILDING TO CHANCE THROUGH THE 3-DAY PERIOD. SOME PERIPHERY BANDS OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW ENGLAND LOW POSSIBLY BRUSHING BY THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND OUTER BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE SLOWLY NEARING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST REACHING
TOWARDS WESTERN NEW YORK. DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SKINNY IN NATURE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT OF A PROLONG NICE DRY STRETCH...AS SOMETIME CAN HAPPEN IN
A MORE CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. FOR NOW SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL HAVE
THE LOWEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST REACHING WNY...WITH A
GREATER CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE PLAINS NEARING THERE WILL BE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE JUST BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMER AIR
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CUT OFF LOW...AND THOUGH
WE MAY BE A BIT CLOUDIER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RISE INTO THE
50S...AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLACED BY DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NOVA SCOTIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADVISORIES
EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. SUSPECT MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIT TOO HIGH...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE CLOSE (BUT
JUST SHY) OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...HOWEVER WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...FUELS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOIST.
FINER FUELS MAY DRY OUT MORE QUICKLY...BUT AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/ZAFF
FIRE WEATHER...APFFEL





000
FXUS61 KBTV 231940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV
4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT
OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000
FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL
MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING
LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I
REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO
COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 231930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE
CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND
SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL
AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE
20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231920
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 PM WED UPDATE... OUR NWP SUITE HAS REACHED A DECENT CONSENSUS
WITH TDY`S 12Z RUN IN THE MED RNG PD...AT LEAST IN THE BIG PICTURE. ON
THE LARGE-SCALE...AMPLIFIED UPR-LVL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
FROM CNTRL CANADA NEWD TWDS GREENLAND...WITH A LARGE...SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FORMING UNDERNEATH THIS BLOCKING RIDGE...AND TAKING UP
RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE DEVIL...OF
COURSE...WILL BE IN THE DETAILS...WITH THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
THIS UPPER LOW DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WX.

ALTHOUGH...AS MENTIONED ABV...LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY
GOOD...THE EC APPEARS TO BE FARTHER W WITH THE POSITION OF THE
DEEP UPPER LOW (MS VLY) NEXT WEEK...VERSUS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS (OH
VLY OR MID-ATL RGN). FOR NOW...WPC APPEARS TO BE LEANING TWDS THE
GFS...AND THUS SO WILL WE. AS A RESULT...WE`LL FIRST BRING IN A
CHC OF SHWRS LATE MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH PCPN CHANCES THEN
LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE PD. IF THE EC SOLUTION ENDS UP BEING
MORE CORRECT...THEN PCPN COULD HOLD OFF LONGER (PERHAPS TWDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT BLO CLIMO FOR LATE APR (HIGHS IN
THE 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231832
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS NY AND PA AS EXPECTED. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START CHILLY AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT START TO QUICKLY WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AS THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST... HOWEVER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN BREEZY WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. FORE MORE INFORMATION ON FIRE WEATHER PLEASE SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
THURS NIGHT THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND DOMINATE
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN RESULTING IN A QUITE A
NICE EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A SFC LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH NW SFC FLOW THROUGH SAT... RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER POST FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
230 PM EDT UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END TODAY AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO TAKE GRIP OF THE REGION. DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND MAY PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL AS LOW AS
15 PERCENT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT REASON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
AS THE SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT EVENING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231733
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
133 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEW POINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEW POINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WED UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTN AT KITH/KBGM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS EVE (02-04Z)...DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
RGN FROM THE W...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND A RETURN TO VFR RGN-
WIDE.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT LTR THIS EVE (02-04Z)...BEFORE
PICKING UP...AND BCMG GUSTY AGN THU MRNG (AFTER 12-13Z).

OUTLOOK...

THU INTO FRI...VFR.

LTR FRI INTO SAT...RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN -SHRA.

LTR SAT THROUGH MUCH OF MON...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MLJ
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 231732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE
CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND
SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL
AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE
20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 231726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND CONT
TO MENTION LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY MTNS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF MID LVL RH
MOVING ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LLVL CAA
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTN ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW 85H TEMPS NEAR -2C THIS MORNING...BUT COOL TO -6C TO
-8C BY TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A DROP IN SNOW LVLS TO 1500 FEET
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST RH WL BE DECREASING AS AIR BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET THIS
AFTN AND DROPPING BTWN 1500 AND 2200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS
TODAY WITH LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF REACHING THE LWR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

125 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN
CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS A RESULT OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT
TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SPOT SHOWER.

COLD ADVECTION AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE
A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY RESULT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
CONNECTICUT THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN
GUSTY. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK BACK UP AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS
GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER
OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FRANK/JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW




000
FXUS61 KALY 231719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
LOOSE IT GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL
BE THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RH VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 231701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231658
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1258 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
PRECIPITATION IS DRYING UP AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE MOVED INTO LAKE
ERIE...THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AND FAR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.  RESIDUAL
LOW CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING OUT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE UPSLOPE NW FLOW...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE
TO WIN OUT WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEAR OR CLEARING PERIOD AROUND SUNSET WITH
PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST
GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO
AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLACED BY DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/ZAFF
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KOKX 231546
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1145 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1145 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AT AROUND NOON.  THIS A RESULT OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES
ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL BE AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDINESS.

COLD ADVECTION AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231515 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1109 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING CLEAR SKIES BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING IN PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR FROM A
NORTHWEST FLOW. AS OF LATE MORNING...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LINGERING
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY...WITH THE 12Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE
THAN FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
AN INCH OR SO ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES. SUSPECT MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN
HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH
THE SUN...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID
20S INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE
MID 50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST
GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO
AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
THIS MORNING WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING
IN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/SMITH
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBGM 231457
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1057 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE WILL BE TIGHT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN TAKE CONTROL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE UPPR LVL SHORT WAVE HAS NOW MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING... AND AS A RESULT THE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT THE DRY
AIR TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC... THE UPPR LVL ATTENDANT SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER MAINE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS
COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN THE MSLP TIGHTENING OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY LATE TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
GUSTY WINDS BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE TRUE DRY AIR TO
MOVE IN.

TONIGHT... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE BREEZY AS THE MSLP WILL
STILL KEEP TIGHT AND DUE TO CAA THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR -6
C. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SKIES BECOMING CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL
NY AND NORTHEAST PA BY EARLY EVENING. THE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME QUITE CHILLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM UPDATE...

IFR CIGS IN NY EXCEPT ELM ATTM WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. MVFR
UNTIL 19 OR 20Z IN NY. AVP WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
UNTIL 16Z. CIGS SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO START...THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS
DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL OUT OF THE NW. AVP MAY GUST ALL NIGHT TO
20.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI MORN...VFR.

FRI AFTN-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...MDP








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1047 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AS OF LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BUT THEY WERE MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD.

POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST CT...SHOULD SEE THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHEAST NJ...WHERE A FEW GUSTS
OF 45 MPH CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL
FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBUF 231445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING CLEAR SKIES BUT CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING IN PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR FROM A
NORTHWEST FLOW. AS OF LATE MORNING...RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS LINGERING
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY...WITH THE 12Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING AND IR SATELLITE SHOWING A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE
THAN FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SNOW SNOW
MIXING INTO THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AN INCH OR SO ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. SHOWERS
SHOULD END EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES. SUSPECT MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN
HOW QUICKLY WE CLEAR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL NW FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH
THE SUN...WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID
20S INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID
50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
THIS MORNING WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING
IN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
LAKE ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/SMITH
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/SMITH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 231427
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1027 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1025 AM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN
CONNECTICUT AS OF LATE MORNING. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS BACK IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BUT THEY WERE MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD.

POTENT SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT WAS DIVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...SHOULD SEE THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.

MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW PEEKS OF SUN...CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...WHERE A FEW GUSTS OF 45 MPH
CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS JUST TOO MARGINAL FOR A
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-074-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND CONT
TO MENTION LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY MTNS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF MID LVL RH
MOVING ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LLVL CAA
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTN ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW 85H TEMPS NEAR -2C THIS MORNING...BUT COOL TO -6C TO
-8C BY TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A DROP IN SNOW LVLS TO 1500 FEET
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST RH WL BE DECREASING AS AIR BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET THIS
AFTN AND DROPPING BTWN 1500 AND 2200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS
TODAY WITH LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF REACHING THE LWR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER









000
FXUS61 KALY 231302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
902 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND
TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
RADAR INDICATING SOME MODERATE BURSTS OF RAINFALL JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS HOUR. WILL RAISE POPS TO
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY. WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE
AFTER 1 PM.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS...ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE A COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT LLVL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
MORNING TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY IN THE U30S-M40S. ISOLATED TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO ERN NY/NERN NJ. WITH WIND FLOW PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NW...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME
SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY AS SATELLITE IMGY SHOWS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM. FINAL PUSH FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LVL VORT WONT REACH THE REGION TIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING
THREAT OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER







000
FXUS61 KBUF 231136
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
736 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
TODAY...MERCURY LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT REMAINS E-W ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO TO A PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MAINE AS OF 11Z THIS
MORNING. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PIVOTING
SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM LAKE ONTARIO/ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE LAKE. AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL RUN
0.10-0.25 INCHES. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY PIVOT JUST
TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH ONLY A CHANCE
FOR SOME DRIZZLE WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE TEMP DROPS TO OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE/WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
BELOW THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARMER THAN -10C
WHICH SUPPORTS DRIZZLE OVER PURE SNOW.

LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT TO PIVOT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE
UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES. A RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NEW YORK WHICH WILL ACT TO
ERODE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS FROM THE LAKE SHORES INLAND. SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS WNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CNY BY
EARLY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WILL
KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 40S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID
50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
THIS MORNING WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIZZLE/SHRA AND LOW CIGS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES OUT TO
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING IN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 231133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOC WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 231101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
UPPED POPS TO CAT ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE STEADY.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN. CURRENT TEMPS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. A
FEW HOURS OF SNOW OR MIX STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS MORNING.

230 AM UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
645 AM UPDATE...

IFR CIGS IN NY EXCEPT ELM ATTM WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. MVFR
UNTIL 19 OR 20Z IN NY. AVP WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
UNTIL 16Z. CIGS SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO START...THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS
DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL OUT OF THE NW. AVP MAY GUST ALL NIGHT TO
20.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI MORN...VFR.

FRI AFTN-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KOKX 231043
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOC WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN025-035 POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL 11-12Z.
WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT
TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KALY 231037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE REGION AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW (20,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND) WAS MOVE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ALBANY. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY DAY/
END. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. IT WILL BE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE OVER THE ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO FALL AS SNOW...BUT LIKELY NOT
ACCUMULATION MUCH IF AT ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBTV 231035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT LLVL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
MORNING TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY IN THE U30S-M40S. ISOLATED TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO ERN NY/NERN NJ. WITH WIND FLOW PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NW...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME
SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY AS SATELLITE IMGY SHOWS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM. FINAL PUSH FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LVL VORT WONT REACH THE REGION TIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING
THREAT OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER













000
FXUS61 KBTV 230855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE
NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER
TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN
MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT
QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER









000
FXUS61 KOKX 230840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NYC WILL PASS EASTERN LI AND SE CT BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN025-035 POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL 11-12Z.
WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT
TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS FAVORING NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230833
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM UPDATE...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD /NEAR
BOTTOM/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS SPECIFIC TO FIRE WEATHER...INCLUDING
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS-WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ONTARIO PENINSULA-WESTERN NY/PA...AND THE DEEPENING LOW
OFFSHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE TO BUILDING HIGH
WILL BE GETTING ESTABLISHED...RESULTING SUNSHINE AND VERY DRY AIR
MIXING DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF PRESSURE GRADIENT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS...YET IN THIS
KIND OF SITUATION MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH MIXING DOWN
ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR. THUS I WENT EVEN LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DEWPOINTS FOR
MAJORITY OF AREA /UPPER TEENS TOWARDS FINGER LAKES REGION/. WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...THIS YIELDS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S
PERCENT RANGE. DEFINITELY A STATIC ELECTRICITY KIND OF DAY IF
WALKING ON CARPET.

AS FOR THE NORTHWEST WINDS...THEY WILL BE HIGHEST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...WITH SUSTAINED REACHING 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EVEN FURTHER WEST...FREQUENT GUSTS 20-30 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES IN. THE INITIALLY CLEAR SKY WILL HELP QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES TO LOWS OF UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH THIN CLOUDS
WILL START SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT...BUT
NOT BEFORE A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
415 EDT AM UPDATE...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY...CONNECTED WELL UPSTREAM TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES 12Z FRI. BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NO
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THUS NO THUNDER POTENTIAL...AND RAIN AMOUNTS
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...PERHAPS ONLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY...PUSHED BY A WAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD SOME SHOWERS...AND I SIDED WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
POPS IN CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH. SECONDARY FRONT
WITH A BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS EXHIBIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ECMWF ORIENTING A VERY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AXIS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...VERSUS THE GFS WITH
A LARGE STACKED CUTOFF LOW ENCOMPASSING MORE OF THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW MORE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET
ALSO POTENTIAL RAIN FROM BAROCLINIC ZONE. GFS ONLY SLIGHT GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES YET ALSO MAINLY DRY AS WE GET INTO
UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST CUTOFF LOW...AND ANOTHER LARGE
ONE IN THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...I WENT LOWER THAN WPC
GUIDANCE BY ONLY INTRODUCING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK ATTM. BY 10Z SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8 TO 14Z SYR RME ITH BGM. BEST BET BGM AND ITH. BGM MAY
DROP TO IFR VSBYS TOO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ELM AND AVP
SHOULD STAY MVFR BUT MAY HAVE FLIGHT ALTERNATES WITH CIGS UNDER 2K
FT. AFTER 14Z CIGS RISE THEN SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL
OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
415 AM EDT UPDATE...
HEADS UP...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE APPROACHED OR EVEN
EXCEEDED THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS TO
WESTERN CATSKILLS. FIRST...IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WHILE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN THURSDAY WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT RANGE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME
AREAS GOT LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS FROM OUR MOST RECENT SYSTEM THAT
JUST CAME THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOST ONLY RECEIVED VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS. ALSO...SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...SO FUELS MAY BE
QUITE VULNERABLE TO QUICKLY DRYING OUT THURSDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS IN NORTHEAST PA...AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS IN NY...WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BREACHED. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL EASILY GET INTO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT WINDS WILL BE MORE
BORDERLINE SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR WATCH. MONITOR
FORECAST FOR UPDATES INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCH EXPANSIONS OR
WARNING ISSUANCES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...MDP







000
FXUS61 KALY 230832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. OTHER
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY.

THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR LOW...DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD ASCENT
AND A COLD POOL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL YIELD TO
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...BUT WITH
THE COLD POOL LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN VERMONT.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHOWER.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBUF 230829
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
429 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY...MERCURY
LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS E-W ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO TO A PARENT LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS PIVOTING SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED
WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE EMBEDDED WHICH COULD BRING A QUICK SOAK WITH AVERAGE QPF
OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
NORTH COUNTY ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 DEGREES BUT LOWER 30S ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY
PIVOT JUST TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH ONLY
A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY AREAS WHERE THE TEMP DROPS TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST
AS ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE AND WARMER THAN -10C WHICH SUPPORTS DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.

LATER THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT TO PIVOT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE
UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES. A RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS WILL
HELP ADVECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NEW YORK WHICH WILL ACT TO
ERODE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS FROM THE LAKE SHORES INLAND. SUNSHINE
SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS WNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CNY BY
EARLY EVENING. THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WILL
KEEP OUR SURFACE TEMPS ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 40S OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW YORK STATE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
FALLING DEWPOINTS HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND TO LOW 30S TOWARD THE LAKE SHORES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH...WILL
SUPPORT A DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE A
BIT...BUT WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THEREFORE...DESPITE THE SUNSHINE HIGHS LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE MID
50S IN MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE COOLER.

INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY DRY AMBIENT AIRMASS...BUT
TOP DOWN MOISTENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SHOWALTER INDEX SUPPORTS LEAVING OUT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING US UP FOR SNEAKY MILDER DAY WITH GOOD
MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S...A FEW  70
PLUS READINGS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY IF SKIES CAN OPEN UP QUICKLY
ENOUGH...BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING CONCERNS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIZZLE/SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES OUT TO
VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SKC WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE
NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER
TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN
MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT
QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230815
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NYC WILL PASS EASTERN LI AND SE CT BY
DAYBREAK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS. A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROF ALOFT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z.
WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 230658
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 AM UPDATE...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NY ATTM. BACKED UP BY A STRONG DIGGING SHORT WAVE ALOFT.
SO FAR ONLY RAIN SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE PLAIN BUT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S SO SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROADS. LATE MORNING WARMS ENOUGH THAT PRECIP
WILL BE ONLY RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO UPSTATE NY
AND THE NRN TIER OF PA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL NOT THAT
MUCH.

DRIER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS DROP BUT
CAA STILL OCCURRING IN THE EVENING. WITH ALL THE DRY AIR SKIES
WILL CLEAR. TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

LOWER CIGS AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK ATTM. BY 10Z SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS ALL SITES. IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE 8 TO 14Z SYR RME ITH BGM. BEST BET BGM AND ITH. BGM MAY
DROP TO IFR VSBYS TOO WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ELM AND AVP
SHOULD STAY MVFR BUT MAY HAVE FLIGHT ALTERNATES WITH CIGS UNDER 2K
FT. AFTER 14Z CIGS RISE THEN SCATTER AROUND 00Z. VFR THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS DURING THE DAY. THIS EVENING WINDS DROPPING TO 10 KTS STILL
OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE
KNOWN BY WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL
BELOW 30. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER
20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
232 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL TODAY...MERCURY
LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
AREA RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO PIVOTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LAKE SHORE
COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTHWEST A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS FOUND
EAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE PRECIPITATION AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.


WHILE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL ACCORDING TO 00Z BUFKIT
PROFILES...WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH MOST LIKELY ONLY YIELDING SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE BEING ORIENTED ABOVE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD TEMPS WARMER THAN -10C. IF ANY OF THIS
DRIZZLE FALLS IN POCKETS WHERE TEMPS DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING THEN
THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

LATER TODAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS MAINE
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. IN
REGARDS TO CIGS...THEY WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH ADVISORIES EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230618
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER







000
FXUS61 KOKX 230604
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...COLD FRONTS OFTEN ARE SLOWER THAN THE
GUIDANCE. LATEST 05Z ANALYSIS...PLACES THE FRONT RIGHT ON TOP OF
NYC WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W. ALREADY SEEING GUSTS APPROACHING
20 KT AT KMGJ. TO THE EAST...SOME PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOULD BE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
FANFARE AND LIGHT RAINFALL.

LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 11-12Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH ISO
-SHRA AND REDUCED VSBYS PRECEDING WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WNW.

WINDS GENERALLY WNW BEFORE AROUND 12Z...THEN NW THEREAFTER.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z.
WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

WIND DIRECTION IN THE CITY FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







000
FXUS61 KALY 230526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO
SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX. THURSDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230455
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBUF 230330
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO
HELP PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EST AND CLEAR OUR SKIES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ON WEDNESDAY...MERCURY
LEVELS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD FRONT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY FRONT HAS
YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 0230Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTH FROM ABOUT TORONTO WHILE A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE
BLOSSOMING OF MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...IT DOES NOT LOOK
AS IF SFC TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS RISK...BUT IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE WORTH WATCHING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOL DOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLOSSOMING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THIS PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. IN REGARDS TO CIGS...THEY WILL
VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW
YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SCA`S EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED WELL TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL PA.
SHOWERS WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST...
BUT SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED IN INSTABILITY AXIS
JUST TO ITS EAST OVER NE PA. THESE MAY HEAD EAST TO NYC METRO
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...WITH ITS BEST FORCING FROM THESE
AREAS SOUTH INTO NJ AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 03Z THROUGH 07Z. THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER
05Z WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. NORTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS 1/10 INCH OF LESS.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HAS
JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND WHICH LIES THE
COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH
FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS COOLS...LOOK FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GOING FORECAST HAS
IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE RESULT
WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD FRONT IS IN
THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY FRONT HAS
YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 0230Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTH FROM ABOUT TORONTO WHILE A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE
BLOSSOMING OF MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...LARGELY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...IT DOES NOT LOOK
AS IF SFC TEMPS WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS RISK...BUT IT WILL
CERTAINLY BE WORTH WATCHING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A BLOSSOMING AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THIS PCPN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. IN REGARDS TO CIGS...THEY WILL
VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT ACROSS MAINE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEW
YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SCA`S EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KALY 230204
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE
NEAR TERM...AND THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME OTHER VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 230124
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
924 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 930 PM...
COLD FRONT AT 9 PM IS NOW EAST OF BGM AND JUST GETTING TO THE
WILKES-BARRE / SCRANTON AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY PA THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
RE- DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL
NEW YORK BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD REACH DOWN TO
NORTHERN PA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW FLAKES MAY MIX WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DABYREAK ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


UPDATED AT 730 PM...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR UCA TO BGM TO IPT. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT WILL END THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH
THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER ABOUT 09Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

300 PM EDT UPDATE... TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND
CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT
IS PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING
THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING
AND EJECTED A VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
NO DIRECT CONNECTION WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE
MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID...
WE MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL END BY AROUND
02Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING
TO NORTHEAST PA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .. THEN SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES OF ITH AND BGM. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH.  SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTHERN NY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT THEN
NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230039
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
839 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD
FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY
FRONT HAS YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 22Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS
FOUND NORTH OF TORONTO...STEADILY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03Z WITH ANOTHER FOUND OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. STAY TUNED.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR MORE
SHOWERS. CIGS WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
ACROSS MAINE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES ON
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS.

AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SCA`S EXPIRING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KOKX 230002
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
802 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BANDS OF SHOWERS...ONE OVER OVER ERN-MOST CT/LONG ISLAND AND
ANOTHER ENTERING WRN CT/LONG ISLAND...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH MENTION OF THUNDER CONFINED TO MAINLY
WEST OF NYC OUTSIDE OF MARITIME INFLUENCE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND IT.

SHOWERS SHOULD END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN SECTIONS COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 02Z THROUGH 06Z. THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER
05Z WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. NORTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.


      NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10KT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10KT UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE THROUGH 01Z UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL. THEN WINDS BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10KT COULD BECOME
VARIABLE UNTIL 02Z AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE TERMINAL.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND RIGHT AROUND 310 TRUE AT TIMES DURING WEDNESDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS 1/10 INCH OF LESS.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 222337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 730 PM...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR UCA TO BGM TO IPT. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT WILL END THE SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH
THE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER ABOUT 09Z.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

300 PM EDT UPDATE... TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND
CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT
IS PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING
THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING
AND EJECTED A VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
NO DIRECT CONNECTION WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE
MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID...
WE MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL
BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL END BY AROUND
02Z. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING
TO NORTHEAST PA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .. THEN SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SPREADING SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHEAST PA BY DAYBREAK. A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES OF ITH AND BGM. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH.  SHOWERS WILL END OVER NORTHERN PA AND
SOUTHERN NY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL NY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT THEN
NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MSE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS. INITIAL COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE
IN AIRMASS...EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS VERMONT...WHILE
SECONDARY FRONT BEHIND WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR IS STILL BACK IN
THE OTTAWA VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DID
ADD THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR
EARLY THIS EVENING BASED ON SOME ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE IT MAKES IT MUCH FURTHER EAST.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT MINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTNOON AS COLD
FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PASSING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK WILL CONTINUE HAVING
THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS
TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS THE
EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND FLOW...PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/ FOCUS OVER HIR
TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT -SW OVER HIR TRRN
WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 222323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LARGER AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE WEST COULD STILL AFFECT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 222312
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTNOON AS COLD FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK
WILL CONTINUE HAVING THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE
OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND
FLOW...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/
FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT
-SW OVER HIR TRRN WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN
HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBUF 222220
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
620 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WHILE ONE COLD
FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A SECONDARY
FRONT HAS YET TO COME THROUGH. AS OF 22Z...THIS SECOND FRONT WAS
FOUND NORTH OF TORONTO...STEADILY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03Z WITH ANOTHER FOUND OF SHOWERS BLOSSOMING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH.

THE PCPN OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE
SHOWERS PROBABLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THOUGH. WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BELOW 10K TO SUPPORT SHOWER
ACTIVITY...THE AIRMASS AT CLOUD LEVEL MAY NOT BE BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. ONLY NUISANCE SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD
BE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT OF A CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT IF THE RESULTING
PCPN IS ONLY SUPERCOOLED...THEN THERE COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER. STAY TUNED.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE BASE OF THE SUPPORTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON...OVERCAST SKIES AND SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE MORNING.

THE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THE FRESH NEW CANADIAN AIRMASS
EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE
40S IN MOST AREAS. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY HAS ALREADY
SWEPT ONE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SECOND WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHC FOR MORE
SHOWERS. CIGS WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NEW YORK.

ON WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER INTO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KALY 222112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
NYS...ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. A BAND
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WAS ACCOMPANYING THIS
FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHTER SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. WET BULB COOLING HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO FALL BACK THROUGH
THE 60S...AND INTO THE 50S WHERE LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

WE EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 9
PM. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 530 PM...INTO THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL REGION...AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 7 PM...AND INTO SOUTHERN VT...WESTERN MA...THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM. THERE
HAVE BEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED UPSTREAM...AND GIVEN VERY
LIMITED INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS
EVENING.

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 222048
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE SHOWERS END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING QUITE A BIT.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE UNLIKELY. WIND AT THE AIRPORT
PREDOMINATELY 270-300 DEGREES MAG. WIND MAY BECOME MORE 250 AND
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM








000
FXUS61 KOKX 222016 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
407 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

THE SHOWERS END FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT INTERIOR
AND EASTERN ZONES COULD SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO INTO
DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOWERING QUITE A BIT.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 222007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...CLDY SKIES AND -RW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS AFTNOON AS COLD FRONT MVS THRU THE AREA. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT PASSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. MDL TRACK
WILL CONTINUE HAVING THIS SYSTEM MVG EAST OF REGION THRU THE
OVERNGT HRS. WITH THIS TRACK...CWA WILL SEE TRANSITION FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR CAA TO WORK INTO THE
AREA AS THE EVENING/OVERNGT HRS PROGRESS. WITH THE SHIFT IN WIND
FLOW...PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO BECM MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE W/
FOCUS OVER HIR TRRN. COLDER AIR WILL CHANGEOVER PRECIP TO LIGHT
-SW OVER HIR TRRN WITH LIGHT ACCUM TOWARDS WED MORNING. OVERNGT
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE L40S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE 30S IN
HIR TRRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KOKX 222001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PARENT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LINGER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY EXIT FARTHER EAST WHILE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD IN WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT. ITS PARENT LOW IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS
OF DEEPENING IN NORTHERN NY STATE.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AS DIAGNOSED FROM
LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO...MOSTLY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND NYC. THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHOWN BY MUCAPE PLOTS FROM THE HRRR.
THEREFORE THERE IS GOING TO BE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ALONG WITH THAT...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12/GFS40 AND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN MODERATE SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER
WILL BE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: STRONG SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY AFTER 6 PM.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN. GALES WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES.
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU.
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH.

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBUF 221952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BEHIND THIS A VORT MAX SPARKS SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS SHOULD BE 06Z TO 12Z. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
FORECAST SATURATED LAYER ONLY COOLS TO ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX
CROSSING SUSPECT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EVENING WILL
CLEAR. OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
VERY CHILLY/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH MID 20S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AS WELL...WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS WARM ADVECTION AND SOME LIMITED MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...AND
WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP AREAS ALONG BOTH THE LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT A
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM OCCLUSION WILL APPROACH THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR
WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S IN
MOST AREAS. THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE LATE.

ON FRIDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
WITH THE SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RACE OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST SREF MEANS
ONLY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ON FRIDAY.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE SHOWERS
MATERIALIZE...THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH PLENTY OF RAIN FREE TIME AS
WELL. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
AND SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
FAIRLY WIDE SWINGS FROM RUN TO RUN. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...
THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SEEN.

LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH
STRONGER WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION. THE ECWMF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...
ALTHOUGH IT WOULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF TO EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. IN
SHORT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME SORT OF SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY BUT THE TRACK AND INTENSITY IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. WITH
THIS IN MIND HAVE JUST KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK ON SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE COOLDOWN LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY THIS
TIME THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE NEW ECMWF BECOMES MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS
NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH...WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTRAL CONUS CUTOFF TO
GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE
MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WE WILL DISCARD THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AND KEEP SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY DRY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE THE COOLEST DAY BEFORE SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD
LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/VFR.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SLOW MOVING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE
BEHIND THIS A VORT MAX SPARKS SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS SHOULD BE 06Z TO 12Z. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
FORECAST SATURATED LAYER ONLY COOLS TO ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX
CROSSING SUSPECT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE TONIGHT.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT FAIRLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FOR A BIT...BUT MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR GOOD LATE IN THE DAY.
ANY LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END BY NOON OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD
LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GENERALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/VFR.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221911
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

300 PM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH MOVED EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECTED A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 20Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. IT APPEARS THAT
THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN PA... BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN GRIDS AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND
THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FROPA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NW SFC
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA AND LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE... LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW. BREEZY NW SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY ON WED AHEAD OF A BUILDING SFC
RIDGE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE WED AFTERNOON AS A COLDER AIRMASS
WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
BREEZY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS
THURS MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS CAA
AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF WED NIGHT. A
SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NY AND PA THURS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURS THUS
THERE MAY SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES WILL BE LOW.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO APPROACH THE CWA ON FRI. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO BE LIGHT. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE THUS
DECIDED TO KEEP CHANGE OF RAIN IN. DECENT WAA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HI PRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE KNOWN BY
WED AFTERNOON WHEN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION FALL BELOW 30.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE BREEZY AS A HIGH AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPACT OVER THE NORTHEAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE EVEN MORE DRY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN AS WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...KAH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221824
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...USHERING
IN COLDER AIR AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SPOTS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STEADY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS...A VORT MAX WILL SPARK SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BEFORE DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES UNTIL
WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONTINUES TO PREFER THE
HRRR FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE IN TIMING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A STRONGER VORT MAX WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN A BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS
WHICH UPSLOPE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHICH IS BEST SUITED TO CAPTURE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES...THE STEADIEST SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. FORECAST TEMPERATURES PROFILES COOL TO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TYPICALLY
COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE FORECAST MOIST
LAYER IS ONLY ABOUT -8C...BUT WITH THE VORT MAX CROSSING SUSPECT
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS TO SUPPORT
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE MARGINAL FORECAST HUMIDITY. IF
NOT...DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...EXPECT PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW LATE
TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEY A
DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS...WITH LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS
AT BUF EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. MEANWHILE...IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AT ART THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S MOVE ACROSS THE COLD LAKE
ONTARIO WATERS AND RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND FOG. MEANWHILE...STEADY
SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BEHIND
THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

AFTER THIS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWERING CIGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP ON ALL OF THE LAKES...WITH A W-NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LONGER FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221806
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THRU CWA TO START OFF THE EXTNDD PD WITH A
SHOWERY WEEKEND ON TAP. HIPRES WL BUILD IN SUN NGT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. TEMPS WL MODERATE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM BUT
RMN BLO NORMAL. BOTH GFS AND EURO AGREE ON DVLPMNT OF CLOSED LOW
OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SUPPLY OF CONT`D
COLD AIR WL KEEP CHCS FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FOR THE MRNG HRS THEN
BCMG RAIN SHOWERS DRG THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KALY 221759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES BY
23/01Z-02Z...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A STRATO-CU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET IS FORECAST FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE FORECAST AT
ALL THE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 18 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED AFTN AND NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
BREEZY.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM










000
FXUS61 KALY 221749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 148 PM EDT...SHOWERS STILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY REAL SOLID RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE
ECHOES FARTHER EAST HAVE ERODES DUE TO DRY WEDGE IN LOW LEVELS. COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND ADVANCING EASTWARD. AS THE COLUMN
MOISTENS AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SHOWERS
SHOULD START REACHING THE GROUND TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA. DELAYED TIMING OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO RAISED TEMPS IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ONLY RECENTLY THICKENED.

HI RES MODELS STILL INDICATING A POSSIBLE LINE OF ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LIKELY TIED TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DUE TO
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING DUE TO WET
BULB EFFECTS ALREADY TAKING PLACE FARTHER WEST WHERE SHOWERS HAVE
BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COOLING EXPECTED FARTHER EAST LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AND
ASSOCIATED IFR POTENTIAL AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF VT...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAIN. THESE SHOWERS WL IMPACT OUR TAF SITES WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING. CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOW CIGS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THESE SHOWERS ACRS
THE SLV/OTTAWA VALLEY AND NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LLVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO SLK BY 19Z AND TWD THE
CPV BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY. WL MENTION IFR CIGS WITH TEMPO FOR VIS
BTWN 2-4SM IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE/BR THRU 00Z TONIGHT. CIGS WL CONT
TO LOWER THIS AFTN/EVENING ACRS THE CPV WITH MVFR DEVELOPING BY
20Z AND POSSIBLE IFR TWD SUNSET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY MPV/BTV/MSS. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS...SO EXPECTING A STRATO CUMULUS
DECK WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WEDS. SOME UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VIS BTWN 2-4SM THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KOKX 221740
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
140 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO REMARKABLE CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE NEAR TERM. SLIGHTLY INCREASED
TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS FOR NORTHEAST NJ AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.

SFC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PARENT LOW
ATTACHED TO COLD FRONT DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY
SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. LEFT CONVECTION AS
ISOLATED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

VFR. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z TO 1Z
TIME FRAME IN SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER. ANY THUNDER WILL BE
ISOLATED.

WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER COLD FRONT
1-3Z. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY 20
TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFTER 12Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE AIRPORT TO THE EAST. WIND AT THE AIRPORT PREDOMINATELY
190-210 DEGREES MAG.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SOUTH WIND CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED AFTERNOON...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW







000
FXUS61 KBGM 221738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
AREA OF VFR SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS AT THIS TIME AND
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR BFR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REMOVED -TSRA AS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR ANY THUNDER WILL DEVELOP TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 19Z AT NY TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO 21Z AT KAVP.
AFTER IT DOES SO, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR AT KITH BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500FT OVERNIGHT.
MAY SEE AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES AFTER
06Z. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KSYR, KELM AND KAVP AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY WITH REMAINING TERMINALS EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS THROUGH
THE END OF TAF VALID TIME.

WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS COLD FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS, BECOMING GUSTIER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SUN... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...PVN
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 109 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MCLDY/CLDY SKIES OVER
THE CWA PERSIST AS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...W/ PRECIP
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM
THE 50S WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN GD PORTION OF N
NY...AND 60S ELSEWHERE. WITH CLD COVER OVER AREA...BEST DYNAMICS
FOR TRW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING/POPS IN REST OF FORECAST
LOOK GD ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM









000
FXUS61 KBGM 221625
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1225 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM EDT UPDATE...
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH REALITY ON THE RADAR. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GAP
BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE 1ST ROUND OF SHOWERS. HRRR MODEL APPEARS
TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OUTPUT OF THE MODEL. OTHERWISE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221553
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1153 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1150 AM EDT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 60S TO LOW 70S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221526
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1126 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1100 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS A SOLID LINE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN. MEANWHILE...WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL
MIX WITH COOLER LAKE WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND EVENTUALLY NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. FOR TIMING
THIS...USED THE HRRR WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...BUT THIS MAY FILL IN SINCE IT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT IS DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND
THE UPPER TROF...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER
TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A SCA
FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBGM 221502
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1102 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. IT
WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
BRINGING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM EDT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NEPA AND CNY. THE FIRST FEATURE
OF INTEREST IS THE IS A SUBTLE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS TROUGH IS WHATS PRODUCING THE RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING AND EJECT A
VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING TROUGH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
AT 700MB... AND BELIEVE THIS WILL CREATE MID LVL INSTABILITY WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDER ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS NO DIRECT CONNECTION
WITH THE GULF IS OCCURRING. PWAT VALUES ARE MOSTLY BELOW AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTER THAT BEING SAID... WE MAY SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR RAIN OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP... ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE FIRST WAVE TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z.
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION TO RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S TO LOW 60S
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE THE DENSE CLOUD COVERAGE... WHICH IS EXPECT
TO LAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MORE PROMINENT UPPR LVL LOW
WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING US AN ADDITIONAL SHOT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE... AKA... A TYPICAL ANA FRONT SCENARIO. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEADING WAVE. THIS FRONT WILL AID TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND CAN BE SEEN WITH AS AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM COMPRISED OF
HIGHER REFLECTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

WED COOL AND SHOWERY WITH SLOWING STACKED LOW IN ERN NEW ENGLAND.
NW CAA FLOW WILL ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE BUT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL NOT ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. WED MORN SECONDARY
COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THEN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THE
REST OF THE DAY. LATE WED THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END. WITH
CAA SFC MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE U40S AND L50S.

WED NGT WILL BE COLD WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS U20S TO A30.

THU WILL BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS RECOVERING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN
L60S SRN VALLEYS. SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SFC HIGH DURING THE AFTN.

THU NGT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FRI AFTN. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF WITH THE HIGH ONLY MOVG INTO ERN NY. TREND AGAIN
TO DELAY THE FRONT A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPES.
POSITIONING OF FRONTS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE TOO. BOTTOM LINE
UNSETTLED AND COOL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN DIFFERENCES DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE IDEA THAT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LITTLE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AND NO THUNDER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT LOW CHC POPS
GOING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DESPITE SOME DOWNSTREAM DISAGREEMENT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
STILL VFR FOR NOW...BUT CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AND THICKENING AHEAD
OF INCOMING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS WITH
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. MAIN BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT WILL MOVE WNW TO ENE FROM 16Z-22Z INCLUDING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER...SEE INDIVIDUAL TAFS FOR
SPECIFICS OF TIMING. ONLY HAVE CB IN KBGM-KAVP TAFS AT THIS
TIME...ALSO POSSIBLE AT KELM-KITH BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF /WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATUS CIG AND EVENTUAL POST FRONTAL SCT -SHRA. HOWEVER...THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL SHOWER-THUNDER BAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A
PUSH OF 20-25 KT GUSTS AS INDICATED IN TAFS WITHIN THE TEMPO GROUPS.

OUTLOOK...

WED...SCT -SHRA AND LINGERING MVFR CIGS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM.

WED NGT-THU NGT...VFR.

FRI-SAT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
645 AM UPDATE... DESPITE POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...PUTTING A HOLD ON FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AFTER THE RECENT WARM DRY SPELL.

NEXT DAY TO WATCH WILL BE THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND RH
BELOW 30 PERCENT. QUESTION HERE WHETHER FUELS WILL DRY OUT IN
TIME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB/MSE/TAC
AVIATION...MDP
FIRE WEATHER...MDP/TAC









000
FXUS61 KOKX 221448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND PASS
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND WORKS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PARENT LOW
ATTACHED TO COLD FRONT DEEPENS APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY
SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR CONSOLIDATION AND ORGANIZATION OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. LEFT CONVECTION AS
ISOLATED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND POPS FOR
SHOWERS. OVERALL...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WORKS EAST TODAY...
SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. UPPER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK PRECEDING THE FRONT THIS AFT...WITH FRONTAL
FORCING BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS. AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...
MAINLY ALOFT...WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR. DRY LOW LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS LATE THIS AFT...BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR ANY SEVERE OR STRONG CONVECTION.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THEN
LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS AFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 WEST OF
NYC...AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY 8
PM...AND FAR EASTERN LI/SE CT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH BY AFT. RIGHT NOW...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

PREFERRED COLDER NAM MOS WITH THE POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AIDING STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
EAST ON FRIDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND ARRIVING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A BRIEF SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVERHEAD.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION. THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST
DAYS IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
60S...COOLEST READINGS NEAR THE COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PASSES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...START TIME OF -SHRA COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF...AND
A LOW CHANCE OF TSTM ACCOMPANYING SHRA.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS THIS MORNING MAY FLUCTUATE
DUE TO MIDDAY SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE MIGHT NOT OCCUR...RESULTING IN
WINDS MOSTLY AROUND 220 MAGNETIC FROM 18Z-21Z. IF SEA BREEZE
OCCURS...IT MIGHT NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 19Z OR 20Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE TIMING COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
OFF...OR POSSIBLY NOT PASSING THROUGH AT ALL. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE PASSES THROUGH
SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO AROUND 180 MAGNETIC.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PASS THROUGH
AS INDICATED AT 16Z...RESULTING IN WINDS PREVAILING CLOSER TO 200
MAGNETIC.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. NW G30-35KT.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK
WED...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY AFT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. GALES
COULD LINGER INTO THU MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS WED AFT
AND NIGHT.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOWERING RH VALUES TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT AND STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ELEVATE THE SPREAD OF ANY WILD FIRES THAT
DO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONCERNS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS EVEN LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT IS UP TO 1/4 INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM WED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC/PW
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY GIVING WAY TO THE 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY COULD MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPDATED TO FORECAST ISSUED TO ACCT FOR
PRECIP/FROPA TIMING OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY...MCLDY/CLDY SKIES
OVER THE REGION WITH SCT --RW OUT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP BAND WITH
FRONT. TIMING FOR FRONTAL PRECIP NOT CHANGED...BUT HAVE SHIFTED SL
CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREA THRU REST OF MORNING HRS. CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FORECAST ATTM. WK INSTABILITY OVER
AREA...BETTER CHANCES SOUTH AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AT NEXT UPDATE
TIME. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RETURNS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. IF
ANYTHING IS FALLING FROM THIS IT WOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MATCH PRESENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND
BACK OFF ON TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MID
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS COLD FRONT TRAILS TO SSW.
FRONT WILL ENTER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AFTER NOON...COINCIDING WITH MAX
HEATING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE INDICES INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. ADDED SLGT
CHC OF THUNDER TO FORECAST FROM ABOUT 18Z-23Z.

TEMPS...WARM TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. 52 DEG AT 4AM AT KBTV...SO
MAXES DON`T HAVE TO RISE VERY FAR TO HIT THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DIPPING BELOW FREEZING. SHOWERS TO LINGER IN
NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM COLD POOL ALOFT UNTIL 500 MB
TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY QUASH RAIN CHANCES.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY 1000-500MB THICKNESS DROPS BELOW 540 DAM
WITH A BRISK N TO NW WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD IN FROM WEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON THURSDAY
OFFSETTING COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE LONG
TERM AS THURSDAY NIGHT SEES A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHIFT EWD...MAKING WAY FOR A SFC LOW TO MOVE IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FRIDAY TEMPS INTO THE 60S. MILD TEMPS
CONTINUE FRIDAY NGT IN THE M30S-M40S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR N AND W. THREAT OF PRECIP CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NGT
WITH W-NW FLOW BRINGING MIN TEMPS INTO THE U20S-U30S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NW FLOW
CREATING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE HIGHER TRRN SATURDAY NGT INTO
LATE SUNDAY.

AT SAME TIME...RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE
EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS SWWD OF THE RIDGE...DRIER AIR MAY
FILTER IN...ENDING THREAT OF UPSLOPE PRECIP SUNDAY NGT INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE L40S-
M50S...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U20S-U30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL
DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SWEEPING
EWD THROUGH THE REGION AND TRIGGERING -SHRA/RA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KSLK BTWN 15Z-17Z...CPV BTWN 19Z-21Z...AND
KMPV/KRUT BTWN 20Z-22Z. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES...PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE WARMER MOIST AIR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. UPSTREAMS OBS
SHOW THAT EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT TO END THE TAF PERIOD IN MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BCM GUSTY BY MID-LATE
MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NW DURING THE EVENING HRS...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JN/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
956 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. AHEAD OF THIS...RADAR SHOWS A SOLID LINE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS OF RAIN TO THE
REGION...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH. MEANWHILE...WARM
AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL MIX WITH COOLER LAKE
WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND EVENTUALLY
NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. FOR TIMING THIS...USED THE HRRR WHICH HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING
DRY SLOT NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS DRY SLOT WILL
REACH WNY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE. AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE
PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO
-3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS JHW/ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A SCA
FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KALY 221341
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL TRACK EASTWARD...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...MAINLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...TAKING ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH IT. A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND BUT WINDY COOL CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...THE KENX 88-D RADAR CONTINUES TO PICK UP RETURNS
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND WERE NOT CHANGED. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST...REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND THE HUDSON VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THE AIR HAS BEEN SATURATING AS DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE 20S TO
30S REGION WIDE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DRIVE PWAT VALUES TO
NEAR AN INCH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON.

AS ASCENT AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT MIDDAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED LINE OF "CONVECTIVE` SHOWERS. THE SHOWALTER INDEX
(WHICH MEASURES INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE H850 AND H500 LEVEL)
APPROACHES ZERO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR REGION OUTLINE IN GENERAL
THUNDER. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF THUNDER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST TODAY. WILL WE
HAVE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE THAN YESTERDAY? THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH ARE ACTUALLY COOLER.
ONCE AGAIN...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE FOUND IN OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD HAVE HIGHS 65 TO 70...SO
DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PAST TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING THE REGION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END...BUT THE NAM
MODELS INSIST ON A GOOD SOAKING RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SOLUTION
IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE MODELS SO FOR NOW...WILL
DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION. WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS VERY EARLY
TONIGHT...QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCES LATER OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERING THEM ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE COME INTO PLAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
(IF ANY) EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...40-45 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL COOLER.

SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S...40S HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...BUT GUSTING TO 35 TO PERHAPS 40 MPH.

THE WIND WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BUT NOT ENTIRELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MAINE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL TURN COLDER...DOWN TO NEAR 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. THE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
STILL BE THERE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER TO WELL IN THE 50S MOST PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CRACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...THE WIND
WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ONCE AGAIN TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...BUT HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EVIDENT
BUT THE CPD/S ARE NOT TOO LOW TO KEEP THE CHC-SCT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FROPA IS
FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANY RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE IS
PROGRESSIVE AND THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL KEEP THOSE POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT
CATEGORY.

THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
ACROSS NOAM WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR...BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND A MORE VIGOROUS
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE NET RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A COOLER
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME BUT QUESTION WILL BE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS.  THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRIER SOLUTION AS
OPPOSED TO THE GFS.  THE GGEM IS SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION AS WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE FAVORING COOLER VALUES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW 0C ONCE AGAIN.  IN
FACT...THE ECMWF DROPS BACK THOSE TEMPS TO AROUND -8C OVER NY WITH
THE GFS HOVERING AROUND 0C.  THE GGEM IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH
-4C.  THIS WILL KEEP VALLEY TEMPS MAINLY INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE
50S WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S WHERE SOME THE PRECIP COULD MIX WITH SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

MAIN AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPSTREAM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND
MVFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH THE SHOWERS.  IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS).

DUE TO A BREEZE AND HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY AREAS DID NOT FULLY RECOVER
OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES WERE MOSTLY WELL BELOW 100 PERCENT.

MAINLY DRY EARLY...BUT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN AREA AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS COULD FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THIS
THRESHOLD.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO TURN
RATHER WINDY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED
WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH 30-35 MPH BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 50S
VALLEY LOCATIONS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THAT BREEZE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING TO 5 TO 15
MPH LATER OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS BREEZE ONCE AGAIN A FULL RECOVERY
MIGHT NOT HAPPEN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
FREEZING OR A LITTLE LOWER.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REACH
25-30 MPH SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS. IF WE FAIL
TO REACH THE QUARTER INCH CRITERIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...COORDINATION
MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH OUR STATE LIAISON PERSONNEL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
LOCALLY HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/GJM
















000
FXUS61 KBUF 221313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
913 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ACCOMPANIED WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...AND
THEN AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 900 AM...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AHEAD OF THIS...RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY
SOLID LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 3 HOURS OF RAIN
TO THE REGION...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER INCH.
ALSO...WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP LAKE ERIE WILL MIX WITH
COOLER LAKE WATERS...RESULTING IN FOG ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
EVENTUALLY NE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT.

INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL...THOUGH SOME SFC CAPE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REACH ACROSS THE ALLEGANY PLATEAU AND BRISTOL HILLS
TODAY AND WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER HERE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT NOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS DRY SLOT WILL REACH WNY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE. AS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING
LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS...850 HPA TEMPS
DROPPING DOWN TO -3 TO -5C...A CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW WILL ALSO BE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES ARE MILD THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LIKELY TIED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WE MAY ALSO SEE A BIT OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF
THE LAKES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR TRUE LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE REMAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE LAKES WILL BECOME A
STABILIZING INFLUENCE... RESULTING IN CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER THE
LAKES AND LAKESHORE AREAS FIRST. THEN...THE CLEARING WILL SPREAD
INLAND. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR HIGHER TERRAIN TO START THE
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SUNNY
SKIES FOR THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
THE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY WITH BACK INTO THE MID 50S IN MANY AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH A BRIEF
WARM-UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WARM
OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL SWING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
NY. A WARMER AIRMASS WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
EVOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
MOST ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A TURN TOWARDS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF SWINGS A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL CUTOFF THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH DELIVERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE CUTOFF LOW IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION MAINLY DRY.

THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND RETROGRADES THE CLOSED LOW ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...KEEPING IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND WITH THE COLDER AIR SOME OF THIS MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MIX OF SNOW AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT BUF/IAG AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. THE MAIN CAUSE IS DEW
POINTS AROUND 50 OVERRUNNING THE MUCH COLDER LAKE ERIE WHICH IS
RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND GROUND FOG. THIS WILL ALSO BECOME AN
ISSUE AT ART LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND
SITES SUCH AS JHW/ROC SHOULD HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT DUE TO THE
FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL FLOW.

A DRY SLOT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE BRIEF AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LOWER CIGS BACK TO IFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS SNOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE INCREASING TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS THIS MORNING ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND WILL HOIST A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE...AND CONTINUE IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ELSEWHERE SCA WILL REMAIN ON LAKE ONTARIO AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...POSSIBLY TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MAY NECESSITATE
A SCA FOR THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO NON-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








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