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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 200233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

BOTH THESE CLOUDS HAVE PREVENT A RAPID DESCENT OF TEMPERATURES BUT
NEVERTHELESS THEY WERE STILL QUITE CHILLY...WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW POSSIBLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...IT WAS DRY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP AS IT
LOOKS AS IF MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES WILL DIP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WE DID HOWEVER...DELAY THE FROST IN THE GRIDS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP IN THE VALLEYS A LITTLE LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED...BUT IN SOME CASES...STILL BLOWING UP TO 10
MPH.

SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...LIGHT
OR NO WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING AROUND 32 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALBANY SOUTHWARD...25-30 MOST OTHER PLACES.


LATER ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 200233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION.

BOTH THESE CLOUDS HAVE PREVENT A RAPID DESCENT OF TEMPERATURES BUT
NEVERTHELESS THEY WERE STILL QUITE CHILLY...WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 40 IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

ASIDE FROM A FEW POSSIBLE FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...IT WAS DRY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THE FREEZE WARNING UP AS IT
LOOKS AS IF MOST IF NOT ALL PLACES WILL DIP TO OR BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WE DID HOWEVER...DELAY THE FROST IN THE GRIDS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP IN THE VALLEYS A LITTLE LONGER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED.

THE WINDS HAVE ABATED...BUT IN SOME CASES...STILL BLOWING UP TO 10
MPH.

SO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...LIGHT
OR NO WIND AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING AROUND 32 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALBANY SOUTHWARD...25-30 MOST OTHER PLACES.


LATER ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. THE
FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK WITH MOST FORECAST TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OBSERVED VALUES SO FAR TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
STAYING UP A LITTLE LONGER BUT THE LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE CITY AND ALONG THE COAST GETTING LOWER WINDS AS WELL BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND
THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BACKS TO WEST OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL BE
NEARLY SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 200221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. THE
FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK WITH MOST FORECAST TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OBSERVED VALUES SO FAR TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
STAYING UP A LITTLE LONGER BUT THE LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE CITY AND ALONG THE COAST GETTING LOWER WINDS AS WELL BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND
THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BACKS TO WEST OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL BE
NEARLY SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 200221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. THE
FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK WITH MOST FORECAST TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OBSERVED VALUES SO FAR TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
STAYING UP A LITTLE LONGER BUT THE LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE CITY AND ALONG THE COAST GETTING LOWER WINDS AS WELL BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND
THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BACKS TO WEST OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL BE
NEARLY SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW










000
FXUS61 KOKX 200221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. THE
FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK WITH MOST FORECAST TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OBSERVED VALUES SO FAR TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
STAYING UP A LITTLE LONGER BUT THE LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW
ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE CITY AND ALONG THE COAST GETTING LOWER WINDS AS WELL BY THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND
THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BACKS TO WEST OVERNIGHT. THE WIND
CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WILL BE
NEARLY SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200212
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PROGRESSED EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...YET
HIGH CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SYRACUSE AND
PENN YAN ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES...BUT ITHACA NORWICH AND CORTLAND
HAVE ALREADY HIT FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASING...FROST IN YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA
SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST THUS STILL SEE NO NEED FOR COUNTY WIDE
FROST ADVISORY. SOME OF THE ELEVATED VALLEYS AND DRAINAGES IN
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONONDAGA STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
FROST...YET IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME THIS
SEASON.

640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 200212
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1012 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PROGRESSED EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...YET
HIGH CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SYRACUSE AND
PENN YAN ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES...BUT ITHACA NORWICH AND CORTLAND
HAVE ALREADY HIT FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASING...FROST IN YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA
SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST THUS STILL SEE NO NEED FOR COUNTY WIDE
FROST ADVISORY. SOME OF THE ELEVATED VALLEYS AND DRAINAGES IN
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONONDAGA STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
FROST...YET IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME THIS
SEASON.

640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUD CLEARING PROGRESSION STILL
SLOWER THAN FCST BUT FASTER THAN AT 7 PM. CLDS FM NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY ADVANCING. THE END RESULT...MIN T WILL BE A FEW DEGS OR
MORE MILDER THAN ORIGINAL FCST IN SPOTS AND HAVE MADE SUCH ADJUSTMENTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 7 PM...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUD CLEARING PROGRESSION STILL
SLOWER THAN FCST BUT FASTER THAN AT 7 PM. CLDS FM NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY ADVANCING. THE END RESULT...MIN T WILL BE A FEW DEGS OR
MORE MILDER THAN ORIGINAL FCST IN SPOTS AND HAVE MADE SUCH ADJUSTMENTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 7 PM...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 200051
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
851 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 200051
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
851 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 200051
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
851 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 200051
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
851 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID CLOUD COVER SCOURED OUT THIS EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT A RENEWED BUILDUP OF MID CLOUDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MID AND LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL BRING
RETURN OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP BECOMING
MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 200002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES.
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER.

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGIN.



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KOKX 192310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUBSIDE QUICKLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BACKING TO WEST. THE WIND CONTINUES
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 192310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUBSIDE QUICKLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BACKING TO WEST. THE WIND CONTINUES
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 192310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUBSIDE QUICKLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BACKING TO WEST. THE WIND CONTINUES
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 192310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUBSIDE QUICKLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BACKING TO WEST. THE WIND CONTINUES
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 192310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUBSIDE QUICKLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BACKING TO WEST. THE WIND CONTINUES
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 192310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
710 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
THEN MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

VFR. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE IN
THE DAY.

NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT SUBSIDE QUICKLY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND BACKING TO WEST. THE WIND CONTINUES
TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW









000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 192306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON/SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 192257
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
657 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BATCH OF STRATOCU IS PUSHING EAST TONIGHT, BEING NOSED OUT OF
THE REGION BY AN ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING BEFORE A BROKEN CIRRUS DECK
SPREADS OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH LOWER CANADA.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO LATE TOMORROW. DECIDED TO
FOREGO PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD ONLY COVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF PACKAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DJP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 192241
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 192241
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KOKX 192211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TAFS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY THEREAFTER...AND THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR. SCT CLOUDS AT 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS BY
02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 192211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
611 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST DATABASE TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED
TRENDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS ON TRACK.

MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TAFS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY THEREAFTER...AND THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR. SCT CLOUDS AT 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS BY
02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     340-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW






000
FXUS61 KALY 192021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 192021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THIS PERIOD
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KOKX 192001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TAFS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY THEREAFTER...AND THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR. SCT CLOUDS AT 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS BY
02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 192001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS
TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MEAN TROF RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AS IT ONCE AGAIN WILL
RELOAD WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...CARVING
OUT ANOTHER AMPLIFIED TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
STATES BY MON NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.

THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AROUND FREEZING AND MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF METRO NY
INTO THE UPPER 30S. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN UP
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NYC METRO AND WESTERN LI.
THE AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE IS OCTOBER 21 FOR THE INTERIOR...SO
THIS RIGHT ON TIME FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE ARE THOUGH A
COUPLE OF LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THE AIR MASS PERHAPS BEING JUST DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST
FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OPAQUENESS OF THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF SUN FILTERING THROUGH.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH A SW FLOW...BUT A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL INHIBIT DEEP MIXING...WITH HIGH ONLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

FOR MON NIGHT...WEAK LIFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL LATE AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF TO THE WEST.

LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SW
FLOW...WITH MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS START OUT IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN...AND MOST
DETAILS ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATTER IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE HANDLING OF SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK. USED A BLEND
OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LEANED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. I USED THIS BLEND LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE ECMWF BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST...AND BETTER
HISTORICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ECMWF IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY AS A
CUTOFF LOW INITIALLY TRACKS TO OUR S...THEN MEANDERS NEAR US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SO
CLOSE TO THE REGION...WOULD NOT EXPECT CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SO ONLY FORECASTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY - EXCEPT LIKELY W 1/3 OF CWA CLOSER TO CLOSED
LOW. THEN HAVE RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT - ULTIMATELY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING PERIODS
OF RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME...LINGERING LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TRANSITIONS EAST WITH FORECAST TRACK
OF SURFACE LOW. HAVE LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO LIKELY LOCATION OF DEFORMATION AXIS AS CLOSED LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE. THEN LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
LIFTS FARTHER NE.

FOR NOW GOING DRY FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PASSING COLD FRONT/NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH TO ACT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. SHOULD THEN HAVE A DRY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH.

FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA
PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND AFTER
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING SOME 5-10
DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES - IN RESPONSE TO
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TAFS BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS.

NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY THEREAFTER...AND THEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR. SCT CLOUDS AT 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS BY
02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TAKING THE LONGEST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DIMINISHING NW FLOW...AND
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON WITH A
RETURN SW FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MON NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ON ALL WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 20 KT FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH 25 KT MAINLY ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET COULD REACH 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR NOW THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK..EXCEPT FOR THE SCA LEVEL
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE SPREAD OVER AROUND 48 HOURS...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 191954
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER SLOW TO GET SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS ARE
DEVELOPING AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 191954
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUD COVER SLOW TO GET SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS ARE
DEVELOPING AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS
RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST.

THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT ENDING UP OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY
MONDAY MORNING...AND TO NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY MONDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS MARGINAL AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO INTO THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191923
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191913
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FROST
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GRWOING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE ALE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 191913
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FROST
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GRWOING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE ALE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 191913
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FROST
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GRWOING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE ALE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 191913
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND COLD AIR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FROST
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GRWOING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE ALE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBTV 191852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 191852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KOKX 191756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
LI. THESE WILL DEPART SHORTLY. RIDGING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY 22Z...AND THEN WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR. OCNL BKN CIGS 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS
BY 02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 191756
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE MOST PART...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN
LI. THESE WILL DEPART SHORTLY. RIDGING BUILDS IN BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY 22Z...AND THEN WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR. OCNL BKN CIGS 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS
BY 02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV







000
FXUS61 KBGM 191745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




000
FXUS61 KBGM 191745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
BKN-OVC VFR AT MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION OF BGM AS MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OFF OF CAYUGA LK IN NW FLOW THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ARND
00Z AND BKN HIGH CIRRUS LAYER STREAMING OVER TERMINALS. CIGS LOWER
TO ARND 10KFT AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND REMAIN THRU NEXT 24 HOURS.

-SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.

WIND OUT OF THE NW 10-12 KTS GUSTING TO ARND 22KTS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT A LIGHT WNW WIND BECOMING LGT/VRB
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191738
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE NYC METRO WITH
BREAKS EVEN FORMING IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS PARTS OF LI AND CT.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS NORTH AND WEST WHERE INSTABILITY CLOUDS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION MAY LINGER INTO MID AFT.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A
FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NW WINDS...JUST AT OR TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC...WILL AVERAGE
15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITH 15-20 KT GUSTS BY 22Z...AND THEN WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BETWEEN 00-02Z MONDAY.

WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE W-SW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
WINDS BACK TO THE S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR. OCNL BKN CIGS 040-050 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SKC CONDS
BY 02Z. BKN CIGS AT 15 KFT WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. S-SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. BEST
CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV









000
FXUS61 KBUF 191732
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE
AREA WIDE WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER
30S AND WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
ENDED/ WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 191732
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE
AREA WIDE WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER
30S AND WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS
ENDED/ WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA





000
FXUS61 KALY 191730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NGT-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA






000
FXUS61 KALY 191730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ARE
THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD.  FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
LESSEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LESS BY 04Z.  SKIES WILL BE
SCT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...COMING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH VFR OVC BY DAYBREAK.  WINDS FOR MONDAY
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FLYING
SHOULD BE FINE.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NGT-THU: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA





000
FXUS61 KBTV 191722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS FROM 025-060 AGL
THROUGH 00-04Z TIME FRAME WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTING
UNDER OCCNLY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW OF 6 TO 12 KTS. SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET IN THIS
FLOW...WITH -SHSN AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR AT KSLK.
LIGHT ICING AT MID LEVELS POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUD LAYER WITH SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER/NEAR SFC LAYER.
AFTER 00-04Z SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY CLOUDY WITH WINDS TRENDING
LIGHT. AFTER 07-12Z WINDS TREND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5
KTS AS BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GENERALLY ABV 100 AGL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH LVL
CIGS LOWERING OVER TIME.

00Z TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDS WITH A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS POSSIBLE.
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE/MTN
WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 191711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT SUNDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
COLD POOL MOVING OVERHEAD DESTABILIZES OUR AIRMASS...DESPITE
SURFACE TEMPS STAYING PUT. WITH THIS UPDATE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS BUT KMSS AND KBTV HAVE REPORTED -RA IN THE PAST HOUR.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 191709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ
COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN BY
THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191709
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8
TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD MDL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG
THE MDLS AVBL. MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS DEEPEN...THEN
CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE OR LESS
VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR YYZ. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS RESULTED IN OVC
CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN THE INCRG S-SE
FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENISUS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ
COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN BY
THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED.

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES
NT.

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS.

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A
DREARY PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SVRL
DEGREES ABV NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL
CREEP NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
12Z/FRIDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY
AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 191455
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1055 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DIMINISHING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
AND THE TUG HILL.

CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 191455
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1055 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DIMINISHING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
AND THE TUG HILL.

CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY
DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING
SHIFTS OVER THE LOW LAKES WITH LIGHTER WIND DEVELOPING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA




000
FXUS61 KOKX 191448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE NYC METRO WITH
BREAKS EVEN FORMING IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS PARTS OF LI AND CT.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS NORTH AND WEST WHERE INSTABILITY CLOUDS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION MAY LINGER INTO MID AFT.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A
FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
TO THE TAFS. GUSTY NW FLOW TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. GUSTS 25-30KT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AS LOW AS 035-040 FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING...THEN
BETWEEN 040-050 AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING SKC
TOWARD EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
 N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV











000
FXUS61 KOKX 191448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE NYC METRO WITH
BREAKS EVEN FORMING IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS PARTS OF LI AND CT.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS NORTH AND WEST WHERE INSTABILITY CLOUDS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION MAY LINGER INTO MID AFT.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A
FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
TO THE TAFS. GUSTY NW FLOW TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. GUSTS 25-30KT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AS LOW AS 035-040 FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING...THEN
BETWEEN 040-050 AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING SKC
TOWARD EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
 N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV











000
FXUS61 KOKX 191448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE NYC METRO WITH
BREAKS EVEN FORMING IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS PARTS OF LI AND CT.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS NORTH AND WEST WHERE INSTABILITY CLOUDS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION MAY LINGER INTO MID AFT.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A
FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
TO THE TAFS. GUSTY NW FLOW TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. GUSTS 25-30KT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AS LOW AS 035-040 FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING...THEN
BETWEEN 040-050 AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING SKC
TOWARD EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
 N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV











000
FXUS61 KOKX 191448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING ACROSS THE NYC METRO WITH
BREAKS EVEN FORMING IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS PARTS OF LI AND CT.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS NORTH AND WEST WHERE INSTABILITY CLOUDS IN THE COLD
ADVECTION MAY LINGER INTO MID AFT.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER A
FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE
TO THE TAFS. GUSTY NW FLOW TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. GUSTS 25-30KT EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AS LOW AS 035-040 FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING...THEN
BETWEEN 040-050 AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING SKC
TOWARD EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
 N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV











000
FXUS61 KBTV 191430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED TODAYS MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR TODAY, EVENED OUT HOURLY TEMPS, AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS, BUT WILL HAVE MORE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING MAKES ITS
PRESENCE FELT. WITH GUSTY NW WIND AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT
GO ANYWHERE TODAY AND CURRENT TEMPS ALSO NEAR MAX TEMPS. POPS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH KSLK REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 34 DEGREES. POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOSS OF MOISTURE.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT SUNDAY...HAVE LOWERED TODAYS MAX TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR TODAY, EVENED OUT HOURLY TEMPS, AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS, BUT WILL HAVE MORE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING MAKES ITS
PRESENCE FELT. WITH GUSTY NW WIND AND CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL NOT
GO ANYWHERE TODAY AND CURRENT TEMPS ALSO NEAR MAX TEMPS. POPS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH KSLK REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT 34 DEGREES. POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOSS OF MOISTURE.

500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND RETREATING COLD FRONT TO
THE EAST PUTS THE REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB UNDER FRONTAL INVERSION...AND THROUGH THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SOME DRYING
OCCURS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND ALLOW FOR THE START OF PARTIAL
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A
QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 191358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
958 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS
SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A
QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME BREAKS
OF SUN ARE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. ISOLD-SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE
KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN
DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE
FCST AREA. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH WILL KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 191150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS
NEW YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DIMINISHING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
AND THE TUG HILL.

CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 191150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS
NEW YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND DIMINISHING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS
PRODUCING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK
AND THE TUG HILL.

CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY...LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 191143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE VALLEYS TAF SITES AND MVFR
AT MPV WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT SLK THE MORNING. CRNT
RADAR SHOWS MAINLY TRRN DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WL CONT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WITH CIGS BTWN 1500 AND 2500
FEET AT SLK/MPV...INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 FT THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE AT PBG/BTV/MSS/RUT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...ALL SITES BECOME IFR THIS EVENING.
ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNTS TODAY...TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TRRN DRIVEN AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU
FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KOKX 191141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SHARP SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS SE LI/CT...AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. GUSTS 25-30KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AS LOW AS 035-040 FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING...THEN
BETWEEN 040-050 AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING SKC
TOWARD EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
 N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV









000
FXUS61 KOKX 191141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SHARP SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS SE LI/CT...AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCE AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORE SO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL DUE
TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW QUICKLY
THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST. GUSTS 25-30KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS AS LOW AS 035-040 FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING...THEN
BETWEEN 040-050 AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. BECOMING SKC
TOWARD EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
 N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 191134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 191134
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 734 AM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
NOTICEABLE CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE
VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE LIMITED WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 191101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 700 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD- SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY. A QUICK
FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS...AS
H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA. BLUSTERY
NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL KEEP IT
CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REGION AND WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY
SCATTERED OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE INTO
MID MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WILL HAVE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO
THE 20S ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING AS THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN
FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KOKX 191037
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SHARP SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS SE LI/CT...AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL
DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW
QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 191037
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SHARP SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS SE LI/CT...AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL
DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW
QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 191037
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SHARP SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS SE LI/CT...AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL
DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW
QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV







000
FXUS61 KOKX 191037
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SHARP SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS SE LI/CT...AND REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE.

OTHERWISE...TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
SHOULD SUPPORT NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI. FREEZE WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS HAZARD.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL
DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW
QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SE
SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO RACING NE OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO LAST A LITTLE
LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190951
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
14-16Z...WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS STILL PSBL AT KBGM/KITH TIL ABT
13Z...AS A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH JUST
A HIGHER-LVL CLOUD DECK PRESENT.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 190951
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
14-16Z...WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS STILL PSBL AT KBGM/KITH TIL ABT
13Z...AS A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH JUST
A HIGHER-LVL CLOUD DECK PRESENT.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190951
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
14-16Z...WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS STILL PSBL AT KBGM/KITH TIL ABT
13Z...AS A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH JUST
A HIGHER-LVL CLOUD DECK PRESENT.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190951
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
14-16Z...WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS STILL PSBL AT KBGM/KITH TIL ABT
13Z...AS A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH JUST
A HIGHER-LVL CLOUD DECK PRESENT.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190951
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
14-16Z...WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS STILL PSBL AT KBGM/KITH TIL ABT
13Z...AS A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH JUST
A HIGHER-LVL CLOUD DECK PRESENT.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190951
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
551 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
14-16Z...WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS STILL PSBL AT KBGM/KITH TIL ABT
13Z...AS A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON...WITH JUST
A HIGHER-LVL CLOUD DECK PRESENT.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBUF 190919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
519 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
ACROSS NEW YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE CONCERNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BRISTOL HILLS AND TUG HILL...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS FAVOR
DRIZZLE OVER SNOW BUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF WET SNOW MAY OCCUR
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING WILL ISSUE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAINLY EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND HIGH
ELEVATION WET SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW
CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
519 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
ACROSS NEW YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE CONCERNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BRISTOL HILLS AND TUG HILL...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS FAVOR
DRIZZLE OVER SNOW BUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF WET SNOW MAY OCCUR
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING WILL ISSUE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAINLY EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND HIGH
ELEVATION WET SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW
CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
519 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
ACROSS NEW YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE CONCERNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BRISTOL HILLS AND TUG HILL...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS FAVOR
DRIZZLE OVER SNOW BUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF WET SNOW MAY OCCUR
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING WILL ISSUE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAINLY EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND HIGH
ELEVATION WET SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW
CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190919
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
519 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
ACROSS NEW YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE
BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THE CONCERNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...BRISTOL HILLS AND TUG HILL...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS FAVOR
DRIZZLE OVER SNOW BUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF WET SNOW MAY OCCUR
WITH NO ACCUMULATION. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING WILL ISSUE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING UP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER NEW YORK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE AREA WIDE
WHICH WILL LINGER THE LONGEST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
MID-AFTERNOON. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -5C WILL
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS BARELY CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S. MUCH OF THE TUG HILL MAY NOT EVEN BREAK OUT OF
THE UPPER 30S WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING THE LONGEST.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF NEW YORK. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOW ELEVATIONS ONLY LIMITED TO THE UPPER 30S AND
WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FROST THREAT. PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND NORTH COUNTY /WHERE THE FROST-FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED/
WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BUT NO FROST EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK COURTESY OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AS IT DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE REGION AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...STEADIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S WITH THE WARMEST AREAS ALONG THE
LAKE PLAINS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A LITTLE HELP
FROM DOWNSLOPING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
TUESDAY`S READINGS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER...THE OCCLUDED NATURE OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM
REACHING WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BECOMES MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
IT WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM
THIS BROAD LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIMITED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ON NORTHERLY FLOW ALSO AIDING IN KEEP SHOWER CHANCES UP.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. EVEN WHERE SHOWERS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ONSHORE OFF THE LAKES AND SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY THOUGH AS SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS NOMINALLY
COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW REACHES THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND +2C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...THOUGH
NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE  LAKES SHOULD SEE THE LOWER 50S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL DEFINE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY WHILE LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAINLY EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND HIGH
ELEVATION WET SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW
CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KALY 190839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 438 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING ERN NY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL NY. A QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS
...AS H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA.
BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL
KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN UP. WILL HAVE
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE RODGE
BUILDS IN FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 190839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
439 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 438 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING ERN NY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN
CATSKILLS. THE KBGM AND REGIONAL MOSAIC RADARS SHOW SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL NY. A QUICK FETCH OF LAKE MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS
MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. ISOLD-SCT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FCST INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS. FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
SOME SUNSHINE WILL FILTER WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE CHILLY AIR MASS
...AS H850 TEMPS TUMBLE TO -3C TO -6C RANGE OVER THE FCST AREA.
BLUSTERY NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL
KEEP IT CHILLY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY U40S TO L50S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING
IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
SHARPLY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND L30S. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY CT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S AND
L30S IN THESE AREAS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL
END THE GROWING SEASON. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM S-CNTRL ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR INFILTRATES
THE REGION...AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
H500 UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM. IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK IMPULSE
UTILIZING THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WRN DACKS/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U50S OVER THE
VALLEYS AND HILLS. AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME WEAK LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
DACKS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...AN EVOLVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE ERN
THIRD OF THE LOWER 48. INITIALLY THE H500 TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. A COASTAL SFC LOW FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NJ AND
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ATLANTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM OVERSPREADS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE H500
LOW CLOSES OFF SOMEWHERE FROM UPSTATE NY TO PA AND POSSIBLY MD.
THE COASTAL SFC WAVE GETS CAPTURED WITH A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF IT
FOCUSING A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST WITH A BAND OF MDT-HVY RAIN...IMPACTING ERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT...THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
LIKELY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. LIKELY POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT LOOKS DAMP AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO L60S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND M40S TO L50S NORTH AND WEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M30S TO M40S OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED AND WET FOR MID WEEK WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE THIS VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL CREEP
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z/FRIDAY. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AS ITS
AIDED BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE UNITED STATES CANADIAN BORDER. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS FAVORED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH THEY STATE HAS BEEN
THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH SOME DEFORMATION ZONE SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS PIECES OF ENERGY WRAP AROUND THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CUTOFF.

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN UP. WILL HAVE
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE RODGE
BUILDS IN FURTHER.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY WITH BLUSTERY AND COOL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
WITH AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS OUR REGION IS GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBGM 190820
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
420 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12-15Z...WITH PERIODIC IFR CIGS AT KBGM/KITH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS
A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY SUN AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 190820
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
420 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE WARM
GREAT LAKES AND FINGER LAKES. THIS WILL PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP
SHOWERS IN THE AREA TODAY. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THE
COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...

A 310 LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER
THE CWA NOW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
NY INTO THE NRN TIER OF NE PA. RADAR SHOWS HIGHER RETURNS DOWNWIND
OF THE INDIVIDUAL FINGER LAKES. STARTING AROUND 12Z LAKE EFFECT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS UL FORCING LEAVES AND WEAK WAA STARTS. ALSO
DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN AHEAD OF THE SFC HIGH AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHOWERS END. THIS AFTERNOON THE STRONG
TRAPPING INVERSION LOWERS SLOWLY AND THE LL FLOW SHIFTS TO 320.
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON WILL BE CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AROUND 40 DEGREES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN BEFORE 9 AM. WITH THE WARM WET GROUND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...

TONIGHT STARTS OFF WITH SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA BUT THE HIGH BE
CENTERED OVER VA/NC. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. PUT
OUT A FREEZE WARNING FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA IN NEPA. THESE ARE
THE ONLY ACTIVE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. LOWS 31 TO 33. THE OTHER
ACTIVE COUNTIES ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES OF NY. THERE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH CLOUDS COMING IN LATE. NOT SURE THE FROST WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD FOR AN ADVISORY. WINDS ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER. REST OF
COUNTIES ALREADY NOT ACTIVE AND SEVERAL WEEKS BEYOND THE MEDIAN
FIRST FREEZE DATES.

HARDLY A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT
WAVES DROPS SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
MICHIGAN THAN PA. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED JUST OFF THE NJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES SLOWLY NE WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THE RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY PM THEN WILL BE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOAKING RAINS BUT TOTAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12-15Z...WITH PERIODIC IFR CIGS AT KBGM/KITH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS
A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY SUN AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE VERTICAL
DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LIMITED
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE VERTICAL
DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LIMITED
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KOKX 190746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY AND REINFORCING SHOT
OF CAA.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AS ABOVE FEATURES COME THROUGH.

TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD SUPPORT
PEAKING NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL
DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW
QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FIRST ON THE OCEAN FOR
CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO
RACING NE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THEN TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT ON ALL WATERS AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV






000
FXUS61 KBTV 190746
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY ALONG WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE VERTICAL
DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE LIMITED
WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. NEVERTHELESS...LINGERING UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
REMAINING TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES THE VALLEY SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S TODAY...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EDT SUNDAY...ENOUGH DRY AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL DEVELOP WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE KEY POINT IS THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THUS THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KOKX 190746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY AND REINFORCING SHOT
OF CAA.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AS ABOVE FEATURES COME THROUGH.

TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD SUPPORT
PEAKING NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL
DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW
QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FIRST ON THE OCEAN FOR
CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO
RACING NE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THEN TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT ON ALL WATERS AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV






000
FXUS61 KOKX 190746
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THEN EAST ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT DRIFTS UP THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY AND REINFORCING SHOT
OF CAA.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AS ABOVE FEATURES COME THROUGH.

TIGHT GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD SUPPORT
PEAKING NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 25-35 MPH IN THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.

BKN STRATO-CU IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME FEW-SCT FROM W TO E IN
AFT WITH DEEP NW FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER FRESH
CANADIAN AIRMASS...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TONIGHT INTO MON...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

A WINDOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW LONG A WINDOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT BUT THIS IS ALSO WHEN CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE.
WILL BLEND BETWEEN MAV/MET GUIDANCES AS THE TIMING OF THESE TWO
FACTORS ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. THIS POINTS TOWARDS TEMPS ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE URBAN CENTERS. NYC METRO LIKELY HOLDS IN THE
40S.

BASED ON THESE TEMPS...FREEZE CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...SOUTHERN CT AND
PINE BARRENS OF LI. FROST CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL CT...REST OF NE NJ
AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AWAY FROM COAST AND NYC METRO...AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK COUNTY LI.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE
OF THE REGION. DESPITE RETURN FLOW AND WAA...LIMITED MIXING AND
INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
MODERATION IN TEMPS...GENERALLY MID 50S TO UPPER 50S. STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THIS
MORNING...DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND THEN DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SW
OF THE REGION BY TUES NIGHT. THIS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO WAVE
PACKET ENERGY ENTERING WEST COAST THIS MORNING AS DEPICTED BY
SUNYSB WAVE PACKET DIAGNOSTICS.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MIDWEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY UP THE NE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL SOME MINOR PLACEMENT/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
BASED ON STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MORESO STRENGTH
OF RIDGING TO THE N/NW OF THE CUTOFF. SUNYSB GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY DEPICT MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS N/S POSITIONAL
DUE TO ABOVE. THEREAFTER...MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN HOW
QUICKLY THIS ENERGY OPENS INTO NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO END THE WEEK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
LOCATION/INTENSITY SPECIFICS OF RESULTANT DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE/S AND ULTIMATE DEGREE OF WIND...RAIN AND COASTAL IMPACTS ON
THE REGION. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST WIND AND COASTAL IMPACTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT
STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY...COOL...AND WET WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AS SUCH
WILL TREND POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR MIDWEEK...THEN TAPERING TO
CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING NE OF THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.
GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS.

BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING...AND 4-5 KFT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MON...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-18KT.
.MON NIGHT-THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
N-NE WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE WED-THU.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...FIRST ON THE OCEAN FOR
CONTINUING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO
RACING NE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THEN TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT ON ALL WATERS AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA WAS EXTENDED INTO
THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS WHERE GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER...AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

SCA CONDS COULD RETURN ESPECIALLY TO THE OCEAN WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUE...THEN DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ069-070-079>081.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
     338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190722
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. THIS WL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF UNSETTLED WX WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY...ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE ACRS OUR
CWA...ALONG WITH TIMING OF VORTS IN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED POSITION OF CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES ACRS CAPE COD...THIS IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF TO ROTATE
ACRS OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA. STILL THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD LOOKS REASONABLE. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FLW AT 85H MAY RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE
NEK/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE CPV ON WEDS INTO THURS.
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL HYDRO IMPACTS ATTM...BUT THIS
TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SETUP WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSED...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO L50S AND LOWERS IN
THE U30S TO MID 40S. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND WINDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL
RANGE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WL OCCUR BY NEXT WEEKEND....AS
MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190638
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS NEW
YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
INLAND HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
30S THIS MORNING BUT BUFKIT PROFILES CONFIRM MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW
AND WARM TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS THUS ONLY EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BREAKING UP FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT BROAD SURFACE LOW.

WHILE THE ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...IT SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY
ENOUGH TO SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN MOST AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ONGOING. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO OSWEGO COUNTY...WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THIS STATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE EVEN IN THIS LATTER AREA STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO
BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST/HWO AT THE PRESENT TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON SUCH FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH ITS ATTENDANT LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ON THE FRONT FLANKS OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BEING FORECAST BY AN
INCREASING SUITE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL PACKAGES...HAVE RAISED
LIKELY POPS TO CAT FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A STEADIER RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

FINALLY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEP
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE
ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE WESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEATURE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF A SURFACE LOW GOING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW LINGERING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY
ZONES... WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE TYPICAL RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ITS PRECIP...FOR NOW HAVE FELT IT BEST
TO CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...WHICH FEATURES A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-EAST REDUCTION
IN PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 190638
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS NEW
YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
INLAND HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
30S THIS MORNING BUT BUFKIT PROFILES CONFIRM MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW
AND WARM TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS THUS ONLY EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BREAKING UP FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT BROAD SURFACE LOW.

WHILE THE ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...IT SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY
ENOUGH TO SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN MOST AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ONGOING. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO OSWEGO COUNTY...WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THIS STATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE EVEN IN THIS LATTER AREA STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO
BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST/HWO AT THE PRESENT TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON SUCH FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH ITS ATTENDANT LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ON THE FRONT FLANKS OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BEING FORECAST BY AN
INCREASING SUITE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL PACKAGES...HAVE RAISED
LIKELY POPS TO CAT FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A STEADIER RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

FINALLY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEP
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE
ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE WESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEATURE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF A SURFACE LOW GOING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW LINGERING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY
ZONES... WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE TYPICAL RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ITS PRECIP...FOR NOW HAVE FELT IT BEST
TO CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...WHICH FEATURES A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-EAST REDUCTION
IN PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 190638
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS NEW
YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
INLAND HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
30S THIS MORNING BUT BUFKIT PROFILES CONFIRM MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW
AND WARM TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS THUS ONLY EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BREAKING UP FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT BROAD SURFACE LOW.

WHILE THE ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...IT SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY
ENOUGH TO SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN MOST AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ONGOING. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO OSWEGO COUNTY...WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THIS STATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE EVEN IN THIS LATTER AREA STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO
BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST/HWO AT THE PRESENT TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON SUCH FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH ITS ATTENDANT LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ON THE FRONT FLANKS OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BEING FORECAST BY AN
INCREASING SUITE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL PACKAGES...HAVE RAISED
LIKELY POPS TO CAT FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A STEADIER RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

FINALLY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEP
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE
ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE WESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEATURE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF A SURFACE LOW GOING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW LINGERING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY
ZONES... WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE TYPICAL RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ITS PRECIP...FOR NOW HAVE FELT IT BEST
TO CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...WHICH FEATURES A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-EAST REDUCTION
IN PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 190638
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE ACROSS NEW
YORK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING INTO THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM A LOW CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS PRODUCING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SHALLOW AREA OF MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS LOWER
TERRAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE ACROSS THE
INLAND HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL WILL DIP INTO THE LOW
30S THIS MORNING BUT BUFKIT PROFILES CONFIRM MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW
AND WARM TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS THUS ONLY EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
SHELTERED AREAS WHICH DIP BELOW FREEZING.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BREAKING UP FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT BROAD SURFACE LOW.

WHILE THE ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...IT SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY
ENOUGH TO SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN MOST AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ONGOING. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO OSWEGO COUNTY...WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THIS STATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE EVEN IN THIS LATTER AREA STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO
BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST/HWO AT THE PRESENT TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON SUCH FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH ITS ATTENDANT LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ON THE FRONT FLANKS OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BEING FORECAST BY AN
INCREASING SUITE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL PACKAGES...HAVE RAISED
LIKELY POPS TO CAT FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A STEADIER RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

FINALLY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEP
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE
ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE WESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEATURE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF A SURFACE LOW GOING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW LINGERING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY
ZONES... WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE TYPICAL RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ITS PRECIP...FOR NOW HAVE FELT IT BEST
TO CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...WHICH FEATURES A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-EAST REDUCTION
IN PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE EAST OF KJHW. PATCHY DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW CIGS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR WILL DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY LASTING LONGEST ON
THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE LOW LAKES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KALY 190606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO
OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF EARLIER IN THE TAF DUE TO UPSLOPE
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME RATHER TIGHT
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE
RODGE BUILDS IN FURTHER. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 190606
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFF TO
OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPSF EARLIER IN THE TAF DUE TO UPSLOPE
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME RATHER TIGHT
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS INTO THE 20S ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE
RODGE BUILDS IN FURTHER. OUTLOOK... MON NIGHT-THU: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA/RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 190521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 190521
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SOME OF
THE SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH
CLOUDS SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40/RAP DEPICTS AN H500 UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING CNTRL-ERN NY FROM THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY AND
FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES OVER THE WRN DACKS AND ERN CATSKILLS. A QUICK FETCH
OF LAKE MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED WITH SOME COATINGS OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE M30S TO L40S OVER THE REGION.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE
SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT
EVEN VCSH) AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20KTS AT KPSF AND KALB.

CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...LAST TO DO SO AT
KALB AND KPSF AND NOT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY (AROUND 22Z). VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE THEY WILL
PERSISTENTLY GUST TO 25KTS...AND OCCASIONALLY COULD EXCEED 30KTS
DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RELAX AFTER 22Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO MUCH OF THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. IN FACT...MANY AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION PICKED UP OVER QUARTER INCH OR
BETTER OF RAINFALL. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER QUARTER OF INC OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EASTWARD.

IT WILL TURN COLDER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST BREEZE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE BREEZE WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY...10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO START THE
DAY...MIXING WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...MORE SUNSHINE SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP MAINLY INTO THE 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL DROP OFF SUNDAY NIGHT LEAVING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR
FROSTY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH LESS WIND...LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
CLOUDS.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OUR REGION
IN PROBABLY GOING TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF
LOW...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190514
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12-15Z...WITH PERIODIC IFR CIGS AT KBGM/KITH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS
A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY SUN AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 190514
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12-15Z...WITH PERIODIC IFR CIGS AT KBGM/KITH BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS
A MOIST NWLY FLOW PERSISTS.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN BY SUN AFTN...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE RGN. WE`RE ANTICIPATING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDS AREA-WIDE BY 18-21Z.

NWLY SFC WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...BEFORE BCMG
GUSTY LTR THIS MRNG AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTN PD (GUSTS OF
22-25 KT COMMON). WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...

MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP







000
FXUS61 KBTV 190513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 190513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACRS THE
CPV...IMPACTING THE BTV TAF SITE ATTM. THE COMBINATION OF NW FLW
AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL CONT TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THRU 08Z...WITH MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. ALSO...THINKING ADDITIONAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
SHOWER WL OCCUR AT SLK WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR LIKELY THRU 12Z. WL
USE A TEMPO GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT MSS/RUT/PBG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MIDDAY...BEFORE DECREASING TWD SUNSET...ALONG WITH CLRING SKIES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLOUDS WL THICKEN ON MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL
IFR CONDITIONS FOR TUES THRU FRIDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CIGS/VIS WL BE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY FLW
AT BTV/MPV/RUT AND SLK.IN ADDITION...AREAS OF TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY TUES INTO WEDS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 190352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1152 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND COLDER
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1152 PM EDT SATURDAY...UPSLOPE COMPONENT ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND THUS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCATTERED NORTHERN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV








000
FXUS61 KOKX 190243
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THEN MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY THEN MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH /MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBO...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY AS LOW PRES TRACKS TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN
UP...AND WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH
GUSTS. CAA WILL USHER A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

GRADIENT RELAXES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION TO CAA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LIKELY. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER
30S FOR MOST COASTAL AREAS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOW
30S. WILL HOIST A FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS TEMPS LOOK TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A RAPIDLY
MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ONSHORE OF THE
CANADIAN WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
MOVES TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
ROTATES INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH AND DEEPENS INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW APPROACHES MONDAY AND
OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS AGREEMENT IS GOOD
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTICS. MONDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING
WEST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK FORCING. ALL MODELS KEEP THE AREA
DRY...HOWEVER WILL NOR BE TOO SURPRISED IF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN OCCUR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. AGAIN GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST. WILL HAVE POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
SLOW MOVING LOW AND UNCERTAINTIES DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUN AFT...ESPECIALLY AT THE
NYC TERMINALS.

VFR CIGS LIKELY WITH CIGS AROUND 5-8 KFT TONIGHT AND 4-5 KFT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A BRIEF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS UP TO 12Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH.
.MONDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
RAIN. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. N-NE WINDS G20-25+
KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A SE SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO...SEE NATIONAL
HURRICANES CENTER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON GONZALO...SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING 1 TO 2 FT FROM FORECAST
VALUES...AND WERE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WERE
FROM THE WEST AND GUSTS WERE NOT QUITE AS HIGH...JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT...AS FORECAST. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY TO 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS. SCA
WILL BE UP FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT....BUT WILL EXTEND SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THE LOW DEEPENS DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067-068-079-081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MPS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET













000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHILLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL HAS TAKEN OVER...A COOL
SEASON PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER FALL. AS SUCH...MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCT -SHRA...WITH MOST
TERMINALS /EXCEPT KRME/ REACHING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS. HILLTOP
TERMINAL KBGM CIG LIKELY TO EVEN DIP INTO IFR...AS WELL AS KITH
DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND LIFT THAT COMES WITH FLOW DOWN THE
LENGTH OF CAYUGA LAKE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CIGS AND SCT -SHRA
TO BE STUBBORN DUE TO COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM LAKES VIA
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PICKING UP MOISTURE...YET GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KELM-KSYR-KRME SHOULD ACHIEVE
VFR EVENTUALLY IN AFTERNOON...WHILE KBGM-KITH HANG ONTO MVFR
LONGEST. WNW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 9-12 KTS TONIGHT...BUT WITH
GUSTS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...BUSY PATTERN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHILLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL HAS TAKEN OVER...A COOL
SEASON PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER FALL. AS SUCH...MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCT -SHRA...WITH MOST
TERMINALS /EXCEPT KRME/ REACHING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS. HILLTOP
TERMINAL KBGM CIG LIKELY TO EVEN DIP INTO IFR...AS WELL AS KITH
DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND LIFT THAT COMES WITH FLOW DOWN THE
LENGTH OF CAYUGA LAKE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CIGS AND SCT -SHRA
TO BE STUBBORN DUE TO COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM LAKES VIA
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PICKING UP MOISTURE...YET GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KELM-KSYR-KRME SHOULD ACHIEVE
VFR EVENTUALLY IN AFTERNOON...WHILE KBGM-KITH HANG ONTO MVFR
LONGEST. WNW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 9-12 KTS TONIGHT...BUT WITH
GUSTS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...BUSY PATTERN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHILLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL HAS TAKEN OVER...A COOL
SEASON PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER FALL. AS SUCH...MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCT -SHRA...WITH MOST
TERMINALS /EXCEPT KRME/ REACHING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS. HILLTOP
TERMINAL KBGM CIG LIKELY TO EVEN DIP INTO IFR...AS WELL AS KITH
DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND LIFT THAT COMES WITH FLOW DOWN THE
LENGTH OF CAYUGA LAKE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CIGS AND SCT -SHRA
TO BE STUBBORN DUE TO COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM LAKES VIA
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PICKING UP MOISTURE...YET GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KELM-KSYR-KRME SHOULD ACHIEVE
VFR EVENTUALLY IN AFTERNOON...WHILE KBGM-KITH HANG ONTO MVFR
LONGEST. WNW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 9-12 KTS TONIGHT...BUT WITH
GUSTS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...BUSY PATTERN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHILLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL HAS TAKEN OVER...A COOL
SEASON PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER FALL. AS SUCH...MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCT -SHRA...WITH MOST
TERMINALS /EXCEPT KRME/ REACHING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS. HILLTOP
TERMINAL KBGM CIG LIKELY TO EVEN DIP INTO IFR...AS WELL AS KITH
DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND LIFT THAT COMES WITH FLOW DOWN THE
LENGTH OF CAYUGA LAKE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CIGS AND SCT -SHRA
TO BE STUBBORN DUE TO COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM LAKES VIA
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PICKING UP MOISTURE...YET GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KELM-KSYR-KRME SHOULD ACHIEVE
VFR EVENTUALLY IN AFTERNOON...WHILE KBGM-KITH HANG ONTO MVFR
LONGEST. WNW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 9-12 KTS TONIGHT...BUT WITH
GUSTS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...BUSY PATTERN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHILLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL HAS TAKEN OVER...A COOL
SEASON PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER FALL. AS SUCH...MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCT -SHRA...WITH MOST
TERMINALS /EXCEPT KRME/ REACHING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS. HILLTOP
TERMINAL KBGM CIG LIKELY TO EVEN DIP INTO IFR...AS WELL AS KITH
DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND LIFT THAT COMES WITH FLOW DOWN THE
LENGTH OF CAYUGA LAKE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CIGS AND SCT -SHRA
TO BE STUBBORN DUE TO COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM LAKES VIA
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PICKING UP MOISTURE...YET GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KELM-KSYR-KRME SHOULD ACHIEVE
VFR EVENTUALLY IN AFTERNOON...WHILE KBGM-KITH HANG ONTO MVFR
LONGEST. WNW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 9-12 KTS TONIGHT...BUT WITH
GUSTS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...BUSY PATTERN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP







000
FXUS61 KBGM 190239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THIS COLD AIR CROSSES THE THE LAKES IT WILL
PICK UP MOISTURE AND DROP SHOWERS IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT TIMES TO SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THIS COOL WEATHER WILL STICK WITH US
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S, WITH 850
TEMPS JUST NOW GETTING BELOW ZERO ROUGHLY FROM NEAR OUR OFFICE,
NORTH AND WEST. COLDER AIR IS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW WITH
SURFACE TEMPS HERE IN THE 36-37 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S. THE AIR ALOFT HERE IS IN THE -5C TO -6C RANGE,
WHICH PAST SNOW CHASING TRIPS HAS SHOWN IS COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WET SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH A STEADY PUSH OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT BEING
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY DAYBREAK, WITH
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
FROM SYRACUSE, SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS
ALONG I-81 INTO NORTHERN PA.


STRONG CAA OVRNGT AS A SHARP TROF DOGS INTO THE AREA.
MODELS FCST AN 8C TO 10C TEMPS DROP AT 850 OVER CNTRL NY. WHILE
THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF PULLS OUT
EARLY...PLENTY OF LL INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE SO THE MOISTURE IN
THE UNSTABLE LYR SHD BE ENUF TO GENERATE LE SHWRS THRU THE NGT.
PCPN TYPE SHD MSTLY BE LIQUID BUT MORE INTENSE SHWRS COULD CREATE
ENUF UPWARD MOTION TO TAP INTO THE COLDEST AIR AND BRIEFLY ADD ICE
CRYSTALS TO THE ENGINE. SFC TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S...ESP OVER
THE HIER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE DECIDED TO CONT TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE
OF MIXED PCPN TNGT. XPCT A MORE CELLULAR AND/OR MULTIBAND SET UP
WITH THE 310 FLOW AND INSTABILITY SO ANY SNOW SHD BE BRIEF AND
WITH THE WRM GND...ACCUMULATION NOT LIKELY SO HAVE REMOVED ANY
ACCUMS FROM THE GRIDS OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR MVG IN...FLOW FVRS SOME LGT LE SHWRS THRU
ABT MIDDAY IN THE ERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
BRIEF RDGG COMES IN THE LTR AFTN AHD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
COMING THRU THE LAKES. AFT A CLR AND COLD NGT ...WAA WILL DVLP
SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN ZONES AS EARLY AS MON AFTN. THIS
CLIPPER THOUGH IS NOT INTERESTED IN SWEEPING THRU...MODELS AGREE
TO DROP THE SYSTEM SWRD INTO TUE SLOWLY CLSG OFF THE UPR LOW. THIS
SLOWLY DVLPS A DEEP NELY FLOW OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BY LATE TUE
WHICH WILL THEN CONT FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. SO...THE PD FROM
MON NGT INTO TUE LOOKS COOL AND WET AS THE LOW STALLS AND DEEPENS
OFF THE NJ SHORE.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BLO NRML. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT
PCPN QPF AMTS WILL GNRLY BE LGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PTRN WITH UPR TROF CUTTING OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AND THE
UPR LOW SLOWLY WOBBLING NEWD TO A PSN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST LATE
IN THE WEEK. USUAL DIFFS ARISE LATE IN THE PD WITH S/WV DETAILS
AND TIMING...BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY AND
WET WITH COOL TEMPS. LTL CHG FROM PREV FCST WHICH LEANS HEAVILY ON
HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
CHILLY MOIST NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL HAS TAKEN OVER...A COOL
SEASON PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATER FALL. AS SUCH...MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCT -SHRA...WITH MOST
TERMINALS /EXCEPT KRME/ REACHING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS. HILLTOP
TERMINAL KBGM CIG LIKELY TO EVEN DIP INTO IFR...AS WELL AS KITH
DUE TO LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AND LIFT THAT COMES WITH FLOW DOWN THE
LENGTH OF CAYUGA LAKE. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...CIGS AND SCT -SHRA
TO BE STUBBORN DUE TO COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM LAKES VIA
CONTINUE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PICKING UP MOISTURE...YET GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO HIGHER END MVFR. KAVP-KELM-KSYR-KRME SHOULD ACHIEVE
VFR EVENTUALLY IN AFTERNOON...WHILE KBGM-KITH HANG ONTO MVFR
LONGEST. WNW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY 9-12 KTS TONIGHT...BUT WITH
GUSTS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OUT OF THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...VFR.

MON NGT THROUGH THU...BUSY PATTERN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS/-SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MDP






000
FXUS61 KBTV 190223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT,
AND COLDER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON A DAILY BASIS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 934 PM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING
VORTICITY CENTER NORTH OF VT/QUEBEC BORDER MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING LINGERING BEHIND. MORE MOISTURE SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING NORTHERN NY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE SCARCE
OUT THERE NOW...BAND OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. BLENDED IN SOME BTV4 HI RES MODEL TO LOWER POPS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT KEPT CHANCES GOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPS...NO CHANGES IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN
THE 30S AND MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
US...BUT DEPARTING VORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS THE REGION IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
HEADING INTO MONDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COMING
ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS THE COOLEST WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER SOME CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN
THE 20S EXCEPT AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHORELINE. RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TEMPS BACK TUP TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 249 PM EDT SATURDAY...DESPITE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF UPPER CLOSED ENERGY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ...A COOL AND INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REGION DURING THE TUE-FRI TIME FRAME.
DEEPENING EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS
AND PERHAPS DACKS. MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MODEL-BLENDED QPF WOULD SUGGEST 3-DAY TOTALS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE
FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD...WITH SCT TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ALONG
AFORMENTIONED ERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. AMTS LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS THE SLV FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE MARITIME MOISTURE SOURCE
AND LOWER TO MID LVL TRAJECTORIES MORE NORTHEASTERLY. TIME WILL
TELL...BUT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER SUCH EASTERLY FLOW REGIMES.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY NARROWED TEMP RANGES (MAXES AND MINS)
SLIGHTLY FROM AVBL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM 45 TO 55 AND
LOWS FROM 38 TO 45 OR SO SO DEFINITELY A RATHER DAMP AND COOL
STRETCH.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESP INTO SATURDAY SCT NRN SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER
CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING...BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PULLS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. ON AND OFF SHOWERS MAY PERSIST AT KSLK
HOWEVER DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE. CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS MOIST POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW
COMMENCES. IFR BECOMING LIKELY AT KSLK IN -SHSN AFTER 06Z AS
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER. AGAIN...OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN GENERALLY
PCPN-FREE. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AT KSLK
AND VFR REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 8-12 KTS WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z MONDAY.

00Z TUE ONWARD...VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS CLOSED UPPER
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AND
LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA...AND BEHIND IT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...WFO BTV






000
FXUS61 KALY 190222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL TURN COOLER WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE A FEW
SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE A COATING. SUNDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY WITH CLOUDS
SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...PLENTY CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE AROUND FOR THE COUNT
OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WERE
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 3 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES AS THESE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT A SHARP
DROP OFF TEMPERATURES. IT STILL LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS (COMBINED WITH
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS)

THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME ORIENTED AT ABOUT A 290 OR 300 AXIS WHICH
WILL MIGHT ALLOW FOR A RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER..MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND 6000 FEET WHICH WOULD
INHIBIT THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD TOPS. EVEN SO...SHOWERS OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL TEND TO BE FRAGMENTED ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW TO FALL MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.

SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD WORK DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...POSSIBLY
REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BETTER CHANCES TO REACH THE
UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. A FEW PLACES
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE GREENS MIGHT GET A DUSTING OF
SNOW AS WELL.

THE WIND WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...BUT COULD GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION.

LOOKS FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN THE SKY COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...THUS FEELING MORE LIKE MID
NOVEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY EVENING THE 500HPA TROF WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...THE SFC
HIGH CRESTING INTO THE FCA...AND A FAST ZONAL 500HPA WNW FLOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHEAST. WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR...AND START
CLEAR WITH LT WINDS OVER FCA AND 13 HOURS OF NIGHT...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE TWRD DAYBREAK AS A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVES
START CARVING A NEW TROF OVER THE W GRTLKS...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER N MI. ATTM MAV/MET TEMPS SUPPORT BLO
FREEZING MINS ACROSS THE FCA...WHICH WOULD END THE GROWING SEASON
IN THOSE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE IT CONTINUES ON.
HOWEVER AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY NIX
THAT.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
CONT TO CARVE A DEEPER GRTLKS TROF WHICH SHIFTS INTO THE E
GRTLKS...AND THE CLIPPER SFC LOW DRIFTS TO NR LK HURON...WHILE SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. ALL THE MODELS GUIDANCE HAS INCRG AND
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT -SHRA REACHING THE FAR
N AND W PORTIONS OF FCA. TEMPS WILL BE NR OF SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SEVERAL MORE PIECES OF SHORT WV
ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE ORGANIZING TROF...FORCING IT TO CUTOFF
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE GRTLKS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A TOP DOWN COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS OFF THE NJ COAST
TUES. LATE TUES AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE STORMS NORTH WILL
INCR...DRAWING ATLC MOISTURE INTO THIS EVOLVING NOR`EASTER. ON
THESE FEATURES THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODEL SUITE.
HWVR THEY DIVERGE TWRD THE END OF THIS PERIOD ON PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER PCPN...NOSE OF THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT..AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TUES NT. GENERALLY -RA AND -DZ WILL OVER SPREAD THE
REGION TUES. THE GEM/PREVIOUS ECMWF KEEP THAT SCENARIO INTO TUES NT.
THE GFS INDICATES HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING TUES NT AS THE FORECAST
AREA IS AT NOSE OF EVOLVING COLD CONVEYOR BELT ASSOC WITH THE
COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS GEN. REGARDLESS THE PERIOD WILL END WITH
DREARY...COOL WET WEATHER WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE UNSETTLED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
IMPACT US IN SOME WAY.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN LONG RANGE FORECAST
WEATHER MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THEIR FORECAST SOLUTION WOULD
TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES OF CAPE COD AND IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD STAY EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(CANADIAN)...POSSIBLY EAST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION (EUROPEAN).

HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUED TO TRACK
THE SURFACE MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AS A RESULT...A BAND OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR
PORTION OF THE STORM...WOULD IMPACT MOST IF NOT OF ALL OUR REGION.

FOR NOW...WORKING WITH WPC...WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM LOOKS TO
SLOWLY PULL FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY...BUT
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SO HUGE...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY (MAINLY ALBANY NORTHWARD). EVEN IF THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION PROVED CORRECT...WE WOULD LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL AS
RAIN...IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH (AT LEAST AT NIGHT) FOR SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND THE SURFACE STORM SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ITS MAIN BELTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF
OUR REGION. HOWEVER...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT BE ENOUGH IN
COMBINATION WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE (AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO) TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OF
RAIN (OR MOUNTAIN SNOW)...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ENOUGH OF BREEZE...COMBINED WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL PREVENT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL TAKE PLACE..NAMELY AT KALB AND KPSF WHERE LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE
IS CHANNELED THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPSLOPE AT KPSF. AT THIS
TIME...WE FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2000
FEET...AT LEAST AT KALB.

SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS (NO