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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION THIS MORNING.
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW TYPICAL
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 9AM OR SO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE
OVER OUR REGION...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SMOKE IS AT ABOUT 20K FEET OR SO...AND ORIGINATES FROM
THE VERY LARGE FIRES IN WESTERN CANADA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. AN INITIAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 5-7K FOOT LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY INLAND FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. NONE OF THIS SHOULD DETRACT FROM
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ON THE
HILLTOPS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING SSW RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A
WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...WITH SOME DRY TIME BUILT IN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE DETAILS...SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE
HUMID AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NEW YORK AND FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK STATE. LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SEVERE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL MEAN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL IFR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...BUT THIS IS AVOIDING
THE KJHW TERMINAL.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 251139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION THIS MORNING.
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW TYPICAL
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 9AM OR SO.
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE
OVER OUR REGION...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SMOKE IS AT ABOUT 20K FEET OR SO...AND ORIGINATES FROM
THE VERY LARGE FIRES IN WESTERN CANADA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. AN INITIAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 5-7K FOOT LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY INLAND FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. NONE OF THIS SHOULD DETRACT FROM
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ON THE
HILLTOPS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING SSW RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A
WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...WITH SOME DRY TIME BUILT IN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE DETAILS...SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE
HUMID AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NEW YORK AND FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK STATE. LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SEVERE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL MEAN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL IFR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...BUT THIS IS AVOIDING
THE KJHW TERMINAL.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




  [top]

000
FXUS61 KOKX 251138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND YIELDS
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE DAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.

A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER THE
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY FOR A FEW HOURS
AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES THROUGH.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/PW
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 251138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND YIELDS
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE DAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.

A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER THE
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY FOR A FEW HOURS
AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES THROUGH.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/PW
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 251125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUJTMENTS TO SKY AND T/TD
DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SKY MAY TEND TO BE A BIT HAZY TODAY
WITH UPPER TRAJECTORIES TRANSPORTING A LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. NO IMPACT TO SURFACE WX HOWEVER. THE SMOKE IS
ORIGINATING FROM LARGE WILDFIRES ACROSS CENTRAL/NW CANADA. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY
NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLD
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS. 925-850 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060.
SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE
WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR.

18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY
IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBTV 251125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADJUJTMENTS TO SKY AND T/TD
DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SKY MAY TEND TO BE A BIT HAZY TODAY
WITH UPPER TRAJECTORIES TRANSPORTING A LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION. NO IMPACT TO SURFACE WX HOWEVER. THE SMOKE IS
ORIGINATING FROM LARGE WILDFIRES ACROSS CENTRAL/NW CANADA. HAVE A
GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...
ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY
NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLD
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS. 925-850 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060.
SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE
WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR.

18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY
IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 251118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060.
SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE
WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR.

18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY
IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBTV 251118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060.
SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE
WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR.

18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY
IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBTV 251118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060.
SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE
WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR.

18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY
IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBTV 251118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MORNING VLIFR FOG HAS BURNED OFF AT MPV AND
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY WITH CEILINGS SKC-SCT060.
SFC HIGH TO PASS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AT MSS. MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY
LATE IN THE EVENING. THINK ANY FOG/MIST WOULD BE AT MPV WHERE
WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK LIKELY TO LIMIT FOG/MIST ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

12Z SUN - 18Z MON...VFR.

18Z MON - 00Z WED...ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THOUGH
VFR MOST OF THE TIME...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY
IN PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO









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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... AS VLY FOG GRADUALLY BURNS OFF THIS MRNG...WE
MAY SEE SOME RESIDUAL RESTRICTIONS AT KELM THROUGH 13-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH A
FEW-SCT CU FIELD LTR TDY...THEN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN AFTER
00Z SAT.

EVEN THOUGH RADIATING CONDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE QUITE AS GOOD
FRI NGT AS THEY WERE LAST NGT...OUR IN-HOUSE CHECKLIST IS SHOWING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT KELM GIVEN SIMILAR PAST ANALOGS. FOR
NOW...WE`LL INDICATE IFR VSBY`S AFTER 08-09Z SAT.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 251034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... AS VLY FOG GRADUALLY BURNS OFF THIS MRNG...WE
MAY SEE SOME RESIDUAL RESTRICTIONS AT KELM THROUGH 13-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH A
FEW-SCT CU FIELD LTR TDY...THEN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN AFTER
00Z SAT.

EVEN THOUGH RADIATING CONDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE QUITE AS GOOD
FRI NGT AS THEY WERE LAST NGT...OUR IN-HOUSE CHECKLIST IS SHOWING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT KELM GIVEN SIMILAR PAST ANALOGS. FOR
NOW...WE`LL INDICATE IFR VSBY`S AFTER 08-09Z SAT.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 251034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... AS VLY FOG GRADUALLY BURNS OFF THIS MRNG...WE
MAY SEE SOME RESIDUAL RESTRICTIONS AT KELM THROUGH 13-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH A
FEW-SCT CU FIELD LTR TDY...THEN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN AFTER
00Z SAT.

EVEN THOUGH RADIATING CONDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE QUITE AS GOOD
FRI NGT AS THEY WERE LAST NGT...OUR IN-HOUSE CHECKLIST IS SHOWING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT KELM GIVEN SIMILAR PAST ANALOGS. FOR
NOW...WE`LL INDICATE IFR VSBY`S AFTER 08-09Z SAT.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 251034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... AS VLY FOG GRADUALLY BURNS OFF THIS MRNG...WE
MAY SEE SOME RESIDUAL RESTRICTIONS AT KELM THROUGH 13-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH A
FEW-SCT CU FIELD LTR TDY...THEN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN AFTER
00Z SAT.

EVEN THOUGH RADIATING CONDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE QUITE AS GOOD
FRI NGT AS THEY WERE LAST NGT...OUR IN-HOUSE CHECKLIST IS SHOWING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT KELM GIVEN SIMILAR PAST ANALOGS. FOR
NOW...WE`LL INDICATE IFR VSBY`S AFTER 08-09Z SAT.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC





  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 250952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN THREAT
OFF SAT...THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING QPF INTO FCA DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR ALL MEMBERS OF GFS ENSEMBLE HOLD OFF QPF TIL AFT 00UTC SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENESUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEFINING FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE
500HPA TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER
TIME IT GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTH. THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE COAST
TUES MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM THE GRT PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEPARTURE IS FAIRLY QUICK IN THE
GFS/GEM...BUT IT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ECMWF/HPC GUID WITH
LINGERING THREAT OF -SHRA.

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE EFP WILL BE HOW FAST ANNA CDFNT DEPARTS
TUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT...OTRW FCA
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...ONLY REAL SIG DIF IS CHC OF -SHRA LINGERS
TUES VS THE OTHERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. UNDER FULL SUN TODAY THEY WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE
AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 250952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN THREAT
OFF SAT...THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING QPF INTO FCA DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR ALL MEMBERS OF GFS ENSEMBLE HOLD OFF QPF TIL AFT 00UTC SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENESUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEFINING FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE
500HPA TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER
TIME IT GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTH. THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE COAST
TUES MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM THE GRT PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEPARTURE IS FAIRLY QUICK IN THE
GFS/GEM...BUT IT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ECMWF/HPC GUID WITH
LINGERING THREAT OF -SHRA.

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE EFP WILL BE HOW FAST ANNA CDFNT DEPARTS
TUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT...OTRW FCA
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...ONLY REAL SIG DIF IS CHC OF -SHRA LINGERS
TUES VS THE OTHERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. UNDER FULL SUN TODAY THEY WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE
AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 250946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
546 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN THREAT
OFF SAT...THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING QPF INTO FCA DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR ALL MEMBERS OF GFS ENSEMBLE HOLD OFF QPF TIL AFT 00UTC SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENESUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEFINING FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE
500HPA TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER
TIME IT GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTH. THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE COAST
TUES MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM THE GRT PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEPARTURE IS FAIRLY QUICK IN THE
GFS/GEM...BUT IT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ECMWF/HPC GUID WITH
LINGERING THREAT OF -SHRA.

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE EFP WILL BE HOW FAST ANNA CDFNT DEPARTS
TUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT...OTRW FCA
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...ONLY REAL SIG DIF IS CHC OF -SHRA LINGERS
TUES VS THE OTHERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. UNDER FULL SUN TODAY THEY WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT

&&

HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE
AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 250946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
546 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN THREAT
OFF SAT...THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING QPF INTO FCA DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR ALL MEMBERS OF GFS ENSEMBLE HOLD OFF QPF TIL AFT 00UTC SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENESUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEFINING FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE
500HPA TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER
TIME IT GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTH. THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE COAST
TUES MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM THE GRT PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEPARTURE IS FAIRLY QUICK IN THE
GFS/GEM...BUT IT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ECMWF/HPC GUID WITH
LINGERING THREAT OF -SHRA.

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE EFP WILL BE HOW FAST ANNA CDFNT DEPARTS
TUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT...OTRW FCA
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...ONLY REAL SIG DIF IS CHC OF -SHRA LINGERS
TUES VS THE OTHERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. UNDER FULL SUN TODAY THEY WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT

&&

HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE
AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.

A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEA
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...HOWEVER THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES
THROUGH.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 250841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.

A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEA
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...HOWEVER THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES
THROUGH.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 250841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.

A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEA
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...HOWEVER THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES
THROUGH.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 250841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.

A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEA
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS
AFTN...HOWEVER THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES
THROUGH.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 250838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS
FOG TO REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 8-9AM ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE WATERSHEDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. AN INITIAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 5-7K FOOT LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY INLAND FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. NONE OF THIS SHOULD DETRACT FROM
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ON THE
HILLTOPS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING SSW RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A
WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...WITH SOME DRY TIME BUILT IN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE DETAILS...SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE
HUMID AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NEW YORK AND FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK STATE. LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SEVERE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL MEAN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS
WITH LOCAL IFR. KJHW HAS A WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...SO IT APPEARS
FOG WILL NOT IMPACT THAT TERMINAL. THE VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
AROUND 13Z.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS
FOG TO REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 8-9AM ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE WATERSHEDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. AN INITIAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 5-7K FOOT LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY INLAND FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. NONE OF THIS SHOULD DETRACT FROM
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ON THE
HILLTOPS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING SSW RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A
WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...WITH SOME DRY TIME BUILT IN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE DETAILS...SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE
HUMID AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NEW YORK AND FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK STATE. LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SEVERE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL MEAN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS
WITH LOCAL IFR. KJHW HAS A WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...SO IT APPEARS
FOG WILL NOT IMPACT THAT TERMINAL. THE VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
AROUND 13Z.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS
FOG TO REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 8-9AM ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE WATERSHEDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. AN INITIAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 5-7K FOOT LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY INLAND FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. NONE OF THIS SHOULD DETRACT FROM
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ON THE
HILLTOPS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING SSW RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A
WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...WITH SOME DRY TIME BUILT IN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE DETAILS...SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE
HUMID AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NEW YORK AND FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK STATE. LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SEVERE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL MEAN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS
WITH LOCAL IFR. KJHW HAS A WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...SO IT APPEARS
FOG WILL NOT IMPACT THAT TERMINAL. THE VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
AROUND 13Z.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
GIVING WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY AND PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND A
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS
OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND EXPECT THIS
FOG TO REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 8-9AM ALONG THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
ALLEGHENY AND GENESEE WATERSHEDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. AN INITIAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THIS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT THESE SHOULD STAY
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 5-7K FOOT LAYER...AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY INLAND FROM THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKES. NONE OF THIS SHOULD DETRACT FROM
A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +11C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ON THE
HILLTOPS.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING SSW RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A
WEAK LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES BY DAYBREAK WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...AND LOWER 50S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSETTLED STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...WITH SOME DRY TIME BUILT IN. ONE
POSITIVE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE DETAILS...SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO CROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT TO CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE IN THE
DAY. THAT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM IN FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE
HUMID AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NEW YORK AND FINALLY PUSH THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NIGHT...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ANOTHER
MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY STRETCHING BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK STATE. LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT STILL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME AS BEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SEVERE PARAMETERS COULD CHANGE THINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SUNDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK WILL MEAN INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS
WITH LOCAL IFR. KJHW HAS A WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...SO IT APPEARS
FOG WILL NOT IMPACT THAT TERMINAL. THE VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
AROUND 13Z.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WILL CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBTV 250758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT
BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE
PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBTV 250758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT
BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE
PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBTV 250758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT
BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE
PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBTV 250758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT
BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE
PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBGM 250752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRI UPDATE... WE`RE EXPECTING VLY FOG TO FORM EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS PTNS OF THE TWIN TIERS. THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KELM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KITH THROUGH 12-13Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE...WITH A FEW-SCT CU FIELD
LTR TDY...THEN SOME THIN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN THIS EVE.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRI UPDATE... WE`RE EXPECTING VLY FOG TO FORM EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS PTNS OF THE TWIN TIERS. THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KELM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KITH THROUGH 12-13Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE...WITH A FEW-SCT CU FIELD
LTR TDY...THEN SOME THIN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN THIS EVE.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRI UPDATE... WE`RE EXPECTING VLY FOG TO FORM EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS PTNS OF THE TWIN TIERS. THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KELM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KITH THROUGH 12-13Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE...WITH A FEW-SCT CU FIELD
LTR TDY...THEN SOME THIN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN THIS EVE.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250752
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI`S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION.

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRI UPDATE... WE`RE EXPECTING VLY FOG TO FORM EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS PTNS OF THE TWIN TIERS. THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KELM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KITH THROUGH 12-13Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE...WITH A FEW-SCT CU FIELD
LTR TDY...THEN SOME THIN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN THIS EVE.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC







000
FXUS61 KALY 250747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN THREAT
OFF SAT...THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING QPF INTO FCA DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR ALL MEMBERS OF GFS ENSEMBLE HOLD OFF QPF TIL AFT 00UTC SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENISUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEFINING FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE
500HPA TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER
TIME IT GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTH. THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE COAST
TUES MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM THE GRT PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEPARTURE IS FAIRLY QUICK IN THE
GFS/GEM...BUT IT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ECMWF/HPC GUID WITH
LINGERING THREAT OF -SHRA.

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE EFP WILL BE HOW FAST ANNA CDFNT DEPARTS
TUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT...OTRW FCA
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...ONLY REAL SIG DIF IS CHC OF -SHRA LINGERS
TUES VS THE OTHERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. UNDER FULL SUN TODAY THEY WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT

HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE
AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 250747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN THREAT
OFF SAT...THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING QPF INTO FCA DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR ALL MEMBERS OF GFS ENSEMBLE HOLD OFF QPF TIL AFT 00UTC SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENISUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEFINING FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE
500HPA TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER
TIME IT GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTH. THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE COAST
TUES MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM THE GRT PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEPARTURE IS FAIRLY QUICK IN THE
GFS/GEM...BUT IT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ECMWF/HPC GUID WITH
LINGERING THREAT OF -SHRA.

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE EFP WILL BE HOW FAST ANNA CDFNT DEPARTS
TUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT...OTRW FCA
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...ONLY REAL SIG DIF IS CHC OF -SHRA LINGERS
TUES VS THE OTHERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. UNDER FULL SUN TODAY THEY WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT

HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE
AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 250736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH A SPOT LOW OF 43F AT SARANAC
LAKE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE
DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT
BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE
PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO











000
FXUS61 KBTV 250736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH A SPOT LOW OF 43F AT SARANAC
LAKE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE
DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT
BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE
PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO












000
FXUS61 KOKX 250732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250732
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
332 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND
YIELDS TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE
FRIDAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING
MORE THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW.
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA
SHORT TERM...PICCA
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW








000
FXUS61 KALY 250549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENISUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY AS
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SHOWRS AND
TSTMS DECREASING TO ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
AND SOUTH THAT THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 250549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENISUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY AS
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SHOWRS AND
TSTMS DECREASING TO ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
AND SOUTH THAT THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 250549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENISUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY AS
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SHOWRS AND
TSTMS DECREASING TO ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
AND SOUTH THAT THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 250549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY.

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S.

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENISUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT.

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA BY TUESDAY AS
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SHOWRS AND
TSTMS DECREASING TO ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST
AND SOUTH THAT THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBGM 250544
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...

WINDS GOING LGT THIS EVENING UNDER THE CLR SKIES ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN TO DRAIN INTO THE VLYS AND POOL. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 50S IN SVRL PLACES. CROSSOVER TEMP IS ARND 50 AND
WITH FCSTD LOWS RCHG INTO THE 40S...AND LIMITED ADDTNL DRYING IN
THE BNDRY LYR AS WE DCPL...HAVE ADDED VLY FOG TO THE ZONES LATE
INTO EARLY FRI. OTRW...NO CHGS TO THE GRIDS OTR THAN MINOR
TEMP...WND AND SKY CVR ADJUSTMENTS. PRVS DISC BLO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRI UPDATE... WE`RE EXPECTING VLY FOG TO FORM EARLY THIS MRNG
ACRS PTNS OF THE TWIN TIERS. THUS...WE`LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KELM...WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT KITH THROUGH 12-13Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE...WITH A FEW-SCT CU FIELD
LTR TDY...THEN SOME THIN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN THIS EVE.

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS
WITH LOCAL IFR. KJHW HAS A WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...SO IT APPEARS
FOG WILL NOT IMPACT THAT TERMINAL. THE VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
AROUND 13Z.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF
THE LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 250539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM THROUGH
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS
WITH LOCAL IFR. KJHW HAS A WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION...SO IT APPEARS
FOG WILL NOT IMPACT THAT TERMINAL. THE VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
AROUND 13Z.

TODAY EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INLAND FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS WESTERN
NY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL NEAR 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY A TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF
THE LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...WOOD






000
FXUS61 KOKX 250538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY...CLOUDS LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ADJUSTED SEAS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY...CLOUDS LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ADJUSTED SEAS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY...CLOUDS LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ADJUSTED SEAS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250538
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY...CLOUDS LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT KBDR/KGON AROUND
16Z-17Z AND KJFK/KISP BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. IT WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY REACHING KEWR/KLGA/KTEB/KHPN BETWEEN 19Z AND
21Z...HOWEVER A SHIFT TO THE W IS POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT
THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ADJUSTED SEAS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...24
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW







000
FXUS61 KBTV 250521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH A SPOT LOW OF 43F AT SARANAC
LAKE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE
DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOON AT BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY
ABOVE PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 250521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH A SPOT LOW OF 43F AT SARANAC
LAKE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE
DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOON AT BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY
ABOVE PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250429
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1229 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY...CLOUDS LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM DROPPING OFF AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. INLAND WIND
SHIFTS TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ADJUSTED SEAS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...PICCA/FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW






000
FXUS61 KALY 250423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KGFL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 250423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KGFL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 250238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 250238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 250238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 250238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND
FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO
SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF
THE LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND
FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO
SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF
THE LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND
FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO
SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF
THE LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 250237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND
FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO
SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF
THE LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KOKX 250232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE DATABASE. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. INLAND WIND
SHIFTS TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE DATABASE. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. INLAND WIND
SHIFTS TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE DATABASE. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. INLAND WIND
SHIFTS TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 250232
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE DATABASE. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. INLAND WIND
SHIFTS TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW








000
FXUS61 KBTV 250204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH A SPOT LOW OF 43F AT SARANAC
LAKE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE
DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME HIGH
ALTITUDE SMOKE MOVING NW-SE ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT FROM ALL
INDICATIONS THIS SMOKE IS ABOVE 20 KFT AND WON/T BE ANY ISSUE FOR
GENERAL AVIATION. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LIGHT
SW AROUND 5 KT AT KMSS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS...GROUND IS STILL WET FROM YESTERDAY/S
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF
IFR FOG AT MPV (08-11Z)...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG AT SLK
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DAYTIME CONDITIONS FRIDAY LOOK VFR
WITH SKC-SCT040.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...BANACOS/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 250204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 959 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH A SPOT LOW OF 43F AT SARANAC
LAKE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS DURING THE
DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE LOWER 1000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME HIGH
ALTITUDE SMOKE MOVING NW-SE ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT FROM ALL
INDICATIONS THIS SMOKE IS ABOVE 20 KFT AND WON/T BE ANY ISSUE FOR
GENERAL AVIATION. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LIGHT
SW AROUND 5 KT AT KMSS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS...GROUND IS STILL WET FROM YESTERDAY/S
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF
IFR FOG AT MPV (08-11Z)...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG AT SLK
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DAYTIME CONDITIONS FRIDAY LOOK VFR
WITH SKC-SCT040.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...BANACOS/NASH







000
FXUS61 KOKX 250143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE DATABASE. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS BY 18Z.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 250143
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE DATABASE. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THEY SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS
GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS BY 18Z.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW








000
FXUS61 KBGM 250134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

930 PM UPDATE...

WINDS GOING LGT THIS EVENING UNDER THE CLR SKIES ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN TO DRAIN INTO THE VLYS AND POOL. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 50S IN SVRL PLACES. CROSSOVER TEMP IS ARND 50 AND
WITH FCSTD LOWS RCHG INTO THE 40S...AND LIMITED ADTNL DRYING IN
THE BNDRY LYR AS WE DCPL...HAVE ADDED VLY FOG TO THE ZONES LATE
INTO EARLY FRI. OTRW...NO CHAGS TO THE GRIDS OTR THAN MINOR
TEMP...WND AND SKY CVR ADJUSTMENTS. PRVS DISC BLO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA CLEARING THE SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THEN FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO
AFTN.

QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL AT MOSTLY ELM. HAVE
KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS 09 TO 13Z. VSBY SHOULD GO IFR AT 2SM
BUT COULD ALSO SEE LIFR AT TIMES CLOSE TO FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CALM
WINDS AT SFC WITH 10 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. ONLY THING IN DOUBT
IS HOW MUCH DRIER IS THE AIR COMING IN. ITH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
MVFR VSBY FOG.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND TONIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS W TO NW AT 4
TO 8KTS FROM 15Z ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 250134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

930 PM UPDATE...

WINDS GOING LGT THIS EVENING UNDER THE CLR SKIES ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN TO DRAIN INTO THE VLYS AND POOL. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 50S IN SVRL PLACES. CROSSOVER TEMP IS ARND 50 AND
WITH FCSTD LOWS RCHG INTO THE 40S...AND LIMITED ADTNL DRYING IN
THE BNDRY LYR AS WE DCPL...HAVE ADDED VLY FOG TO THE ZONES LATE
INTO EARLY FRI. OTRW...NO CHAGS TO THE GRIDS OTR THAN MINOR
TEMP...WND AND SKY CVR ADJUSTMENTS. PRVS DISC BLO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA CLEARING THE SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THEN FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO
AFTN.

QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL AT MOSTLY ELM. HAVE
KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS 09 TO 13Z. VSBY SHOULD GO IFR AT 2SM
BUT COULD ALSO SEE LIFR AT TIMES CLOSE TO FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CALM
WINDS AT SFC WITH 10 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. ONLY THING IN DOUBT
IS HOW MUCH DRIER IS THE AIR COMING IN. ITH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
MVFR VSBY FOG.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND TONIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS W TO NW AT 4
TO 8KTS FROM 15Z ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 250134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

930 PM UPDATE...

WINDS GOING LGT THIS EVENING UNDER THE CLR SKIES ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN TO DRAIN INTO THE VLYS AND POOL. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 50S IN SVRL PLACES. CROSSOVER TEMP IS ARND 50 AND
WITH FCSTD LOWS RCHG INTO THE 40S...AND LIMITED ADTNL DRYING IN
THE BNDRY LYR AS WE DCPL...HAVE ADDED VLY FOG TO THE ZONES LATE
INTO EARLY FRI. OTRW...NO CHAGS TO THE GRIDS OTR THAN MINOR
TEMP...WND AND SKY CVR ADJUSTMENTS. PRVS DISC BLO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA CLEARING THE SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THEN FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO
AFTN.

QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL AT MOSTLY ELM. HAVE
KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS 09 TO 13Z. VSBY SHOULD GO IFR AT 2SM
BUT COULD ALSO SEE LIFR AT TIMES CLOSE TO FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CALM
WINDS AT SFC WITH 10 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. ONLY THING IN DOUBT
IS HOW MUCH DRIER IS THE AIR COMING IN. ITH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
MVFR VSBY FOG.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND TONIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS W TO NW AT 4
TO 8KTS FROM 15Z ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBGM 250134
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

930 PM UPDATE...

WINDS GOING LGT THIS EVENING UNDER THE CLR SKIES ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN TO DRAIN INTO THE VLYS AND POOL. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 50S IN SVRL PLACES. CROSSOVER TEMP IS ARND 50 AND
WITH FCSTD LOWS RCHG INTO THE 40S...AND LIMITED ADTNL DRYING IN
THE BNDRY LYR AS WE DCPL...HAVE ADDED VLY FOG TO THE ZONES LATE
INTO EARLY FRI. OTRW...NO CHAGS TO THE GRIDS OTR THAN MINOR
TEMP...WND AND SKY CVR ADJUSTMENTS. PRVS DISC BLO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA CLEARING THE SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THEN FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO
AFTN.

QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL AT MOSTLY ELM. HAVE
KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS 09 TO 13Z. VSBY SHOULD GO IFR AT 2SM
BUT COULD ALSO SEE LIFR AT TIMES CLOSE TO FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CALM
WINDS AT SFC WITH 10 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. ONLY THING IN DOUBT
IS HOW MUCH DRIER IS THE AIR COMING IN. ITH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
MVFR VSBY FOG.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND TONIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS W TO NW AT 4
TO 8KTS FROM 15Z ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/JAB
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KALY 250017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
817 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 250017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
817 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 242359
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
759 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE
AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER AROUND
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO
OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WITH WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON
THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBTV 242341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE
LOWER 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM THURSDAY...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER
AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED
UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME HIGH
ALTITUDE SMOKE MOVING NW-SE ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT FROM ALL
INDICATIONS THIS SMOKE IS ABOVE 20 KFT AND WON/T BE ANY ISSUE FOR
GENERAL AVIATION. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LIGHT
SW AROUND 5 KT AT KMSS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS...GROUND IS STILL WET FROM YESTERDAY/S
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF
IFR FOG AT MPV (08-11Z)...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG AT SLK
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DAYTIME CONDITIONS FRIDAY LOOK VFR
WITH SKC-SCT040.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...BANACOS/NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 242341
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE
LOWER 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM THURSDAY...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER
AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED
UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME HIGH
ALTITUDE SMOKE MOVING NW-SE ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT FROM ALL
INDICATIONS THIS SMOKE IS ABOVE 20 KFT AND WON/T BE ANY ISSUE FOR
GENERAL AVIATION. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LIGHT
SW AROUND 5 KT AT KMSS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS...GROUND IS STILL WET FROM YESTERDAY/S
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF
IFR FOG AT MPV (08-11Z)...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR FOG AT SLK
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DAYTIME CONDITIONS FRIDAY LOOK VFR
WITH SKC-SCT040.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...BANACOS/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 242333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE
LOWER 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM THURSDAY...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER
AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED
UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 242333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE
LOWER 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM THURSDAY...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER
AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED
UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 242333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE
LOWER 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM THURSDAY...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER
AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED
UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 242333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A COOL NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS THEY PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
LOWS 45-55F STILL LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED VALLEYS GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS STILL LINGERING IN THE
LOWER 1000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 339 PM THURSDAY...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER
AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED
UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT
STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KOKX 242332
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THAT SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL CWA.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE
TO MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY
GET INTO THE 50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS BY 18Z.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW












000
FXUS61 KOKX 242332
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
732 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS ANOTHER
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THAT SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL CWA.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE
TO MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY
GET INTO THE 50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS BY 18Z.

VFR.

A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LONG
ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW













000
FXUS61 KBGM 242328
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA CLEARING THE SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THEN FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO
AFTN.

QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL AT MOSTLY ELM. HAVE
KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS 09 TO 13Z. VSBY SHOULD GO IFR AT 2SM
BUT COULD ALSO SEE LIFR AT TIMES CLOSE TO FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CALM
WINDS AT SFC WITH 10 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. ONLY THING IN DOUBT
IS HOW MUCH DRIER IS THE AIR COMING IN. ITH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
MVFR VSBY FOG.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND TONIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS W TO NW AT 4
TO 8KTS FROM 15Z ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC







000
FXUS61 KBGM 242328
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA CLEARING THE SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THEN FEW TO SCT CUMULUS FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO
AFTN.

QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL AT MOSTLY ELM. HAVE
KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS 09 TO 13Z. VSBY SHOULD GO IFR AT 2SM
BUT COULD ALSO SEE LIFR AT TIMES CLOSE TO FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CALM
WINDS AT SFC WITH 10 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND. ONLY THING IN DOUBT
IS HOW MUCH DRIER IS THE AIR COMING IN. ITH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
MVFR VSBY FOG.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND TONIGHT. FRIDAY WINDS W TO NW AT 4
TO 8KTS FROM 15Z ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT-SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...TAC






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE
AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER AROUND
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO
OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE
AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER AROUND
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO
OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE
AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER AROUND
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO
OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE
AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER AROUND
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO
OUR EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






000
FXUS61 KALY 242039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG. LOTS OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. BY SATURDAY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. A
STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THEN...OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD UNCOMFORTABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING AROUND. TODAY...NAY A SHOWER ON THE RADAR
LET ALONE THUNDERSTORMS. WE STILL DO HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE SLOWLY FADING. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WERE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES COOLER AND THE DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LOOKS FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75 AND 80 VALLEY AREAS...70 TO 75
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT COOLING NICELY BY SUNSET. A NORTH WIND WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY DRY.

AFTER SUNDOWN...ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE...LEAVING ONLY
A FEW WISPY CIRRUS AROUND (AND PERHAPS SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM A
FOREST FIRE UP IN CENTRAL CANADA). THE NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE
60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...50S AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS 50 TO 55 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH OF ALBANY BY DAWN. WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND OVERNIGHT...PATCHES
OF FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE PLACES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS
PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS REALIZED.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CEILING AROUND 3500 FEET WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPSF AND KPOU AND BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT 08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE 6 KT FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU AND SOUTH AT KGFL AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT
SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 242039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG. LOTS OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. BY SATURDAY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. A
STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. THEN...OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN WE
HAD UNCOMFORTABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING AROUND. TODAY...NAY A SHOWER ON THE RADAR
LET ALONE THUNDERSTORMS. WE STILL DO HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE SLOWLY FADING. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WERE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES COOLER AND THE DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO MORE THAN 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LOOKS FOR A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75 AND 80 VALLEY AREAS...70 TO 75
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT COOLING NICELY BY SUNSET. A NORTH WIND WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY DRY.

AFTER SUNDOWN...ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE...LEAVING ONLY
A FEW WISPY CIRRUS AROUND (AND PERHAPS SOME SMOKE ALOFT FROM A
FOREST FIRE UP IN CENTRAL CANADA). THE NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE
60S THROUGH MIDNIGHT...50S AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS 50 TO 55 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH OF ALBANY BY DAWN. WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND OVERNIGHT...PATCHES
OF FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE PLACES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS
PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS REALIZED.
INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE
WEST.

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CEILING AROUND 3500 FEET WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPSF AND KPOU AND BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT 08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE 6 KT FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU AND SOUTH AT KGFL AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT
SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI
AND SE CT...WITH SOME CU BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...LOOKING AT A
CLEARING TREND WITH A SMALL CAVEAT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROF INTERACTS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY
GET INTO THE 50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

VFR.

N WINDS AROUND 10KT INTO THIS EVENING. SE FLOW LIKELY DEVELOPS AT
KGON...AND PROBABLY FOR KISP AND KBDR THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHC OF SEA BREEZE BACKING WINDS SW FOR
A FEW HOURS STARTING 22-23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO ESE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO...OR SHIFT MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUE...
.FRI PM-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 241957
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI
AND SE CT...WITH SOME CU BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...LOOKING AT A
CLEARING TREND WITH A SMALL CAVEAT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROF INTERACTS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. STAYED CLOSE TO
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND...TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S NYC METRO. THE PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WILL LIKELY
GET INTO THE 50S AS WELL. THIS IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF PASSES TO THE EAST WITH GRADUAL HEIGHTS RISES AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRI. A
WEAK LEE OR THERMAL TROF IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMING S/SW FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STAYED CLOSE TO MET/MAV MOS. THESE
NUMBERS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE 50S FRI AFT...MAKING FOR VERY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

VFR.

N WINDS AROUND 10KT INTO THIS EVENING. SE FLOW LIKELY DEVELOPS AT
KGON...AND PROBABLY FOR KISP AND KBDR THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLIGHT CHC OF SEA BREEZE BACKING WINDS SW FOR
A FEW HOURS STARTING 22-23Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO ESE COULD BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO...OR SHIFT MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUE...
.FRI PM-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FIG/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...FIG/DW
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DW






000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. DIURNAL STRATO-CU ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE OFFSET
HOWEVER BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS VEIL OF SMOKE MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FORECAST
THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. DIURNAL STRATO-CU ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE OFFSET
HOWEVER BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS VEIL OF SMOKE MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FORECAST
THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. DIURNAL STRATO-CU ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE OFFSET
HOWEVER BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS VEIL OF SMOKE MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FORECAST
THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE
THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE AT AROUND 20KFT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
ACROSS ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS VEIL OF SMOKE
ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND CAN BE SEEN
JUST UPSTREAM ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS EXPECTED ARRIVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND SUNSET...RESULTING IN WHAT
SHOULD BE A VERY PICTURESQUE EVENTIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN
CLOAK OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING QUITE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S NEARER THE LAKES. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE SMOKE MAY NEGATE THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AS SUCH HAVE REMOVED IT FROM
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SHOULD THE SMOKE LAYER END UP BEING THINNER
THAN EXPECTED FOG MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. DIURNAL STRATO-CU ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE OFFSET
HOWEVER BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS VEIL OF SMOKE MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FORECAST
THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN
ENDS OF THE LAKES. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241941
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF
THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 241941
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AND THEN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
SATURDAY. A CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
ENHANCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE GONE BY SUNSET. DRIER AIR IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BULK OF
THE SMOKE THAT HAS GOTTEN PICKED UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL SOME OVER QUEBEC THAT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A RELATIVELY DRY
AIR MASS AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRY DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SHALLOW CUMULUS FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN...BUT VERTICAL DEPTH SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THURSDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ENOUGH FORCING SHOULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH GOING
FORECAST ALREADY HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH





000
FXUS61 KBTV 241917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL JUST
AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS RATHER NOTICEABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER TWO
DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY
UNSETTLED AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WEEK.

PRIMARY 12Z GUIDANCE (GFS & ECMWF) STILL IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PRIOR RUNS WITH LARGE SCALE PICTURE WITH
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH. STILL OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ZIPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW, AND IT`S REALLY THOSE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE WEATHER
WE SEE. BECAUSE OF THE OVERALL SIMILARITY BETWEEN MODELS, I
POPULATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST DATASET WITH A BLEND OF THEM ALL.

HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS:

SUNDAY...TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE MORNING HOURS WE MAY
BE DEALING WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED
T-STORM THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME
BREAKS OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD BUBBLE UP SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS SHOWS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT THAT BEGINS TO WANE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. PART OF THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE DRIVEN IN THE
MODELS BY THE RATHER HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS (MID-UPPER 60S). BEST
MID LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
SO ANY CONVECTION WE DO SEE SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT ORGANIZED OR
STRONG. THAT SAID, BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE, IF THE SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH A LITTLE SLOWER, THEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY. IN THE END, I
JUST PAINTED IN LIKELY LEVEL POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. NO REASON TO
TRY TO GET MORE CUTE THAN IS NECESSARY AT THIS POINT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 13-14C, WHICH UNDER FULL SUNSHINE WOULD
SUPPORT LOW/MID 80S FOR HIGHS. HOWEVER, CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOUT 80F, THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHAT WE
SEE FOR SUN. COULD BE HIGHER. COULD BE LOWER.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE REGION. TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS, SO AGAIN WON`T TRY TO SLICE THE BALONEY TOO THIN. SO
SOMETIME IN THIS PERIOD WE`LL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ROLL THROUGH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE
MODELS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL, SO I JUST CALLED IT "SLIGHT
CHANCE" FOR T-STORMS. AGAIN, A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALLING DUE TO THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH (850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 10-12C), MONDAY IS
LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY - HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, ABOUT
5-7F BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST, OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS
AREN`T SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW,
SO THE PRIMARY TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DAYTIME HEATING. SO HAVE PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL POPS DURING THE
DAY AND MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND WILL BE DOWN AROUND 10C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AS ADDITIONAL SUN WILL
OFFSET THINGS A BIT.

THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO "RELOAD" ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER US. SHOULD BE THE
DRIEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ANTICIPATE DAYTIME
HEATING TO AGAIN RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP TO 12-13C, SO
HIGHS WILL BE CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS
LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 00Z EXPECT
SKC TO SET IN AT ALL TERMINALS. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM. HAVE KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z AT 2SM
THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z. RADIATION CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
PERFECT BUT WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

WINDS BECOMING LGT AFTER 00Z THEN INCREASE TO OUT OF THE WNW FROM
4-8KTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241902
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TAKE HOLD NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS
FEATURING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TRAJECTORIES FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO INDICATE DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH DWPTS REACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S. THIS COUPLED WITH MANILY CLEAR SKIES SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEYS. MAV AND
MET MOS GUIDANCE AT ELMIRA ARE IN THE RECORD RANGE. DIURNAL CU
FIELDS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT INTERESTINGLY THE VISIBLE SATL
IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GTLKS AND CNTRL ONTARIO. THIS COULD HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A LIMITING FACTOR TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT IT IS THIN AND
THERE IS NO GUARANTEE IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CNY/NEPA.

NO ISSUES ON FRIDAY WITH LESS CAA AND THEREFORE LESS CU DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LVL HEIGHTS BECOME LESS CYCLONG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WAA
DEVELOPING. TEMPS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS HAVE IRONED OUT SOME OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE APPROACHING LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RETURNING FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 850 MB AND BELOW WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. THE WARM FRONT WITH UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY...AND CERTAINLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE WE HAVE UPPED POPS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...SO ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER IS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. WEAK SFC
RIDGING IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY SUNDAY WITH
UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ALSO PROBABLE...SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP EARLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETS UP FOR THE WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT
THAT TIME RANGE...WE WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF LOW-MID CHC POPS LATE
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT TROF.

BLENDED TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WHICH STILL SUGGEST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 00Z EXPECT
SKC TO SET IN AT ALL TERMINALS. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM. HAVE KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z AT 2SM
THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z. RADIATION CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
PERFECT BUT WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

WINDS BECOMING LGT AFTER 00Z THEN INCREASE TO OUT OF THE WNW FROM
4-8KTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 241820
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
220 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
USUAL LAKE SHADOW AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECT THESE AREAS OF
LAKE INDUCED CLEARING TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LIGHT NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION. FARTHER INLAND...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL AIR
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. DIURNAL STRATO-CU ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE OFFSET
HOWEVER BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS VEIL OF SMOKE MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FORECAST
THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE AREA...HENCE HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN ON
THE LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241820
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
220 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
USUAL LAKE SHADOW AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECT THESE AREAS OF
LAKE INDUCED CLEARING TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LIGHT NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION. FARTHER INLAND...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL AIR
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. DIURNAL STRATO-CU ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
WILL DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE OFFSET
HOWEVER BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS VEIL OF SMOKE MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS...SO HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE FOG FROM THE FORECAST
THERE FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE AREA...HENCE HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN ON
THE LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KOKX 241805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES AS WINDS THROUGH THE
FIRST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ARE MARGINALLY WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

VFR.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10KT. SEA BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST FOR
KGON/KBDR THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS KJFK/KISP. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH
KJFK/KISP.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC THAT WINDS DO NOT BACK TO SW THIS AFTN OR
TIMING OF BACKING WINDS IN TAF COULD BE AN HOUR OR 2 TOO SOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS DO NOT BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTN/EVENING...OR TIMING OF ONSHORE SHIFTS ARE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUE...
.FRI PM-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD SLOWLY CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY
FROM THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/DW/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 241805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES AS WINDS THROUGH THE
FIRST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ARE MARGINALLY WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

VFR.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10KT. SEA BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST FOR
KGON/KBDR THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS KJFK/KISP. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH
KJFK/KISP.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC THAT WINDS DO NOT BACK TO SW THIS AFTN OR
TIMING OF BACKING WINDS IN TAF COULD BE AN HOUR OR 2 TOO SOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS DO NOT BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTN/EVENING...OR TIMING OF ONSHORE SHIFTS ARE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUE...
.FRI PM-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD SLOWLY CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY
FROM THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/DW/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 241805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES AS WINDS THROUGH THE
FIRST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ARE MARGINALLY WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

VFR.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10KT. SEA BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST FOR
KGON/KBDR THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS KJFK/KISP. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH
KJFK/KISP.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC THAT WINDS DO NOT BACK TO SW THIS AFTN OR
TIMING OF BACKING WINDS IN TAF COULD BE AN HOUR OR 2 TOO SOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS DO NOT BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTN/EVENING...OR TIMING OF ONSHORE SHIFTS ARE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUE...
.FRI PM-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD SLOWLY CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY
FROM THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/DW/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 241805
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MOSTLY ON TRACK. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES AS WINDS THROUGH THE
FIRST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ARE MARGINALLY WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

VFR.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10KT. SEA BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST FOR
KGON/KBDR THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS KJFK/KISP. LESS CONFIDENCE WITH
KJFK/KISP.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC THAT WINDS DO NOT BACK TO SW THIS AFTN OR
TIMING OF BACKING WINDS IN TAF COULD BE AN HOUR OR 2 TOO SOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC WINDS DO NOT BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTN/EVENING...OR TIMING OF ONSHORE SHIFTS ARE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUE...
.FRI PM-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD SLOWLY CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY
FROM THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/DW/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241740
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM SUBTLE
TEMP/DWPT AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO
THE FA TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING
TO PLEASANT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 00Z EXPECT
SKC TO SET IN AT ALL TERMINALS. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM. HAVE KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z AT 2SM
THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z. RADIATION CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
PERFECT BUT WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

WINDS BECOMING LGT AFTER 00Z THEN INCREASE TO OUT OF THE WNW FROM
4-8KTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/JAB
NEAR TERM...DJP/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241740
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
140 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM SUBTLE
TEMP/DWPT AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO
THE FA TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING
TO PLEASANT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 00Z EXPECT
SKC TO SET IN AT ALL TERMINALS. QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM. HAVE KEPT IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z AT 2SM
THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 13Z. RADIATION CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
PERFECT BUT WIDE DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

WINDS BECOMING LGT AFTER 00Z THEN INCREASE TO OUT OF THE WNW FROM
4-8KTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/JAB
NEAR TERM...DJP/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL JUST
AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS RATHER NOTICEABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER TWO
DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35 KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 241736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL JUST
AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS RATHER NOTICEABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER TWO
DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35 KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR, WITH DAYTIME CUMULUS FOCUSSED
MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE IS
FORMING ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS WELL. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL MELT AWAY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM IN MOST AREAS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. SOME
OTHER INDICATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE 5-10KTS OF WIND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE GROUND THAT WOULD LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A STRATUS
SITUATION THAN FOG. IN ANY REGARD, ONLY SLK AND MPV ARE AT RISK
FOR ANY FOG/STRATUS. THINK FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY
TO MVFR LEVELS, THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AROUND MPV DUE
TO RECENT RAIN, THINK IFR CEILING WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS.

BY 12Z FRIDAY, WE ARE BACK TO VFR AREA WIDE.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL JUST
AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS RATHER NOTICEABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER TWO
DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35 KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241715
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS HAS FORMED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL JUST
AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DISSIPATE. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS RATHER NOTICEABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE CUT BACK ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER TWO
DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35 KNOT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 241701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA...BUT THESE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE DISSIPATING
A LITTLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.  A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AVERAGED 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED NO NEED TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CEILING AROUND 3500 FEET WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPSF AND KPOU AND BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT 08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE 6 KT FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU AND SOUTH AT KGFL AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM












000
FXUS61 KALY 241701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA...BUT THESE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE DISSIPATING
A LITTLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.  A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AVERAGED 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED NO NEED TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CEILING AROUND 3500 FEET WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPSF AND KPOU AND BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT 08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE 6 KT FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU AND SOUTH AT KGFL AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM













000
FXUS61 KALY 241636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1280 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA...BUT THESE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE DISSIPATING
A LITTLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.  A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AVERAGED 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED NO NEED TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 241636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1280 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA...BUT THESE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE DISSIPATING
A LITTLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.  A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AVERAGED 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED NO NEED TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 241636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1280 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA...BUT THESE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE DISSIPATING
A LITTLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.  A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AVERAGED 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED NO NEED TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 241636
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1280 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA...BUT THESE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE DISSIPATING
A LITTLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.  A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AVERAGED 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED NO NEED TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KBUF 241547
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1147 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
USUAL LAKE SHADOW AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECT THESE AREAS OF
LAKE INDUCED CLEARING TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LIGHT NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION. FARTHER INLAND...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL AIR
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SCT/BKN VFR STRATOCU IN PLACE
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CLOUD COVER LARGELY DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS POSSIBLE INVOF THE LAKESHORES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW...
BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY
AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE AREA...HENCE HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN ON
THE LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241547
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1147 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
USUAL LAKE SHADOW AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECT THESE AREAS OF
LAKE INDUCED CLEARING TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LIGHT NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION. FARTHER INLAND...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL AIR
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SCT/BKN VFR STRATOCU IN PLACE
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CLOUD COVER LARGELY DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS POSSIBLE INVOF THE LAKESHORES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW...
BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY
AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE AREA...HENCE HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN ON
THE LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH DRYING LOW-
LEVELS AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 750 MB.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE WORKING SLOWLY EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

MAINLY VFR...BUT TEMPO CIGS 2000-3000FT COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10KT. SEA BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST FOR
KGON/KBDR THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS KJFK. LEAST CONFIDENCE WITH KJFK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 17-20KT THRU 16Z. CHC THAT
WINDS DO NOT BACK TO SW THIS AFTN OR TIMING OF BACKING WINDS COULD
BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 17-20KT THRU 16Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 17-20KT THRU 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY
WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD SLOWLY CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY
FROM THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 241446
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NEAR CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE REMOVED THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH DRYING LOW-
LEVELS AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 750 MB.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE WORKING SLOWLY EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.

MAINLY VFR...BUT TEMPO CIGS 2000-3000FT COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING.

WINDS N-NNW AROUND 10KT. SEA BREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST FOR
KGON/KBDR THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS KJFK. LEAST CONFIDENCE WITH KJFK.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 17-20KT THRU 16Z. CHC THAT
WINDS DO NOT BACK TO SW THIS AFTN OR TIMING OF BACKING WINDS COULD
BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 17-20KT THRU 16Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 17-20KT THRU 16Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY
WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 16Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF CAPE COD SLOWLY CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY
FROM THE WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/DW/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KBGM 241445
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM SUBTLE
TEMP/DWPT AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO
THE FA TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING
TO PLEASANT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE
HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR.

N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/JAB
NEAR TERM...DJP/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241445
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1045 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...NO SIG CHANGES TO FORECAST ASIDE FROM SUBTLE
TEMP/DWPT AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

EARLY AM DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO
THE FA TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING
TO PLEASANT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE
HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR.

N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/JAB
NEAR TERM...DJP/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241414
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1013 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. COLD
AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE A BIT...SO HAVE ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CL NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KOKX 241201
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PER 12KM WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-
ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE
DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS. NOTING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE BRIEF.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN THE NYC METRO. THESE WILL
LIFT/SCT OUT BY 14Z. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD
BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...TEMPO CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WIND DIRECTIONS
MAY BACK 20-30 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT
19Z...OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY
WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/WAVES FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WITH 12Z UPDATE.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 241201
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PER 12KM WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-
ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE
DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS. NOTING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE BRIEF.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN THE NYC METRO. THESE WILL
LIFT/SCT OUT BY 14Z. VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD
BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...TEMPO CONTINUES.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WIND DIRECTIONS
MAY BACK 20-30 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT
19Z...OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN
RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY
WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/WAVES FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WITH 12Z UPDATE.

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PICCA/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW RATHER
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TOPPED BY A VEIL OF
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE A COMBINATION OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT TRIGGERING SOME LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C TRIGGERING
LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K
FEET. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO
FORM...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW THE LAKES TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR NICELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SPREADING INLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ACTING ON
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN HERE THOUGH...EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C WILL FORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN BUT EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...WITH JUST A FEW
PATCHES OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE STUBBORN TO
FADE INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. BY LATE
MORNING EXPECT THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEGIN TO WIN
OUT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME MIXING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW...
BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY
AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL MAINLY
FROM STURGEON POINT TO THE PA STATE LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW RATHER
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TOPPED BY A VEIL OF
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE A COMBINATION OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT TRIGGERING SOME LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C TRIGGERING
LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K
FEET. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO
FORM...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW THE LAKES TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR NICELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SPREADING INLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ACTING ON
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN HERE THOUGH...EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C WILL FORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN BUT EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...WITH JUST A FEW
PATCHES OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE STUBBORN TO
FADE INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. BY LATE
MORNING EXPECT THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEGIN TO WIN
OUT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME MIXING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW...
BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY
AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL MAINLY
FROM STURGEON POINT TO THE PA STATE LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW RATHER
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TOPPED BY A VEIL OF
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE A COMBINATION OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT TRIGGERING SOME LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C TRIGGERING
LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K
FEET. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO
FORM...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW THE LAKES TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR NICELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SPREADING INLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ACTING ON
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN HERE THOUGH...EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C WILL FORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN BUT EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...WITH JUST A FEW
PATCHES OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE STUBBORN TO
FADE INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. BY LATE
MORNING EXPECT THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEGIN TO WIN
OUT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME MIXING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW...
BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY
AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL MAINLY
FROM STURGEON POINT TO THE PA STATE LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOTS OF THE MORNING SHOW RATHER
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TOPPED BY A VEIL OF
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE A COMBINATION OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT TRIGGERING SOME LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C TRIGGERING
LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K
FEET. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO
FORM...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW THE LAKES TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR NICELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SPREADING INLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ACTING ON
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN HERE THOUGH...EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C WILL FORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THIN BUT EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE MAINLY VFR...WITH JUST A FEW
PATCHES OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE STUBBORN TO
FADE INITIALLY THIS MORNING AS IT IS SUPPORTED BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. BY LATE
MORNING EXPECT THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY
PROGRESSING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEGIN TO WIN
OUT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FROM MID MORNING ON WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME MIXING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW...
BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY
AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL MAINLY
FROM STURGEON POINT TO THE PA STATE LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 623 AM EDT THURSDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBTV 241107
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 623 AM EDT THURSDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CLEARING HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR AT RUT EARLY
THIS MORNING WHERE CEILINGS HAVE STAYED GENERALLY MVFR (IFR AT
TIMES). THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TRENDING
VFR. BKN/OVC VFR FOR REST OF THE TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT). MIST/FOG WITH
POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITIES APPEARS A GOOD BET AT SLK AND MPV
UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT AN AFTN ISOLATED SHOWER
AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN (PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK) THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

00Z SAT - 12Z SAT...VFR WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY AT MPV
AND SLK WITH FOG/MIST.

12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO











000
FXUS61 KBGM 241033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE
HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR.

N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE
HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR.

N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE
HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR.

N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 241033
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIX DOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERLY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THU UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
12Z FRI...WITH A SCT TO BKN CU FIELD TDY...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

THE ONLY TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MRNG AT KAVP...AND THEN PSBL FOG DVLPMT AT KELM TWDS DAYBREAK
FRI. THE FOG FCST FOR KELM IS TRICKY...AS DRY ADVECTION WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TDY...AND PSBLY INTO THE EARLY EVE
HRS. HOWEVER...RADIATING CONDS ARE LIKELY TO BE GOOD AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S.
WE FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR.

N TO NW SFC WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS AFTN...BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KALY 241033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 241033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
FOG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN FOG
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KALY 241026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCREASED THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN FOG
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT
08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KBTV 241023
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
623 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 623 AM EDT THURSDAY...SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND
T/TD DATASETS TO NUDGE TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. REST
OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS
TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KOKX 241014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
614 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PER 12KM WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-
ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE
DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS. NOTING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE BRIEF.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...MARKED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS IN THE NYC METRO. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OR SO...BUT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO LOW
END VFR AFT 10Z. HAVE NOT EXPANDED THESE CIGS INTO EASTERN
TERMINALS AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT AND MAY ONLY BE
SCT AS MODELS INDICATE. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY MVFR FOG
THROUGH 12Z WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW 5 KT. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES MAY ALSO IMPACT WESTERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 19Z...OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. WLY WINDS
POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW









000
FXUS61 KOKX 241014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
614 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PER 12KM WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-
ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE
DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID
LEVELS. NOTING LIGHT SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

ANY SHOWER SHOULD BE BRIEF.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...MARKED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS IN THE NYC METRO. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OR SO...BUT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO LOW
END VFR AFT 10Z. HAVE NOT EXPANDED THESE CIGS INTO EASTERN
TERMINALS AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT AND MAY ONLY BE
SCT AS MODELS INDICATE. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY MVFR FOG
THROUGH 12Z WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW 5 KT. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES MAY ALSO IMPACT WESTERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 19Z...OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. WLY WINDS
POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW








000
FXUS61 KOKX 240914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
514 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY EASTERN LOCALES PER 12KM
WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. IN GENERAL THOUGH...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...MARKED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS IN THE NYC METRO. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OR SO...BUT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO LOW
END VFR AFT 10Z. HAVE NOT EXPANDED THESE CIGS INTO EASTERN
TERMINALS AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT AND MAY ONLY BE
SCT AS MODELS INDICATE. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY MVFR FOG
THROUGH 12Z WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW 5 KT. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 19Z...OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. WLY WINDS
POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
514 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY EASTERN LOCALES PER 12KM
WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. IN GENERAL THOUGH...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...MARKED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS IN THE NYC METRO. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z OR SO...BUT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO LOW
END VFR AFT 10Z. HAVE NOT EXPANDED THESE CIGS INTO EASTERN
TERMINALS AS THERE IS NO INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT AND MAY ONLY BE
SCT AS MODELS INDICATE. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY MVFR FOG
THROUGH 12Z WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW 5 KT. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AFT 19Z...OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS MAY LIFT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.
ISOLD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. WLY WINDS
POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW CHC OF SLY WINDS AFT 20Z. ISOLD GUSTS UP TO
20 KT BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
430 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING CLOUDS
FILLING BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO COOLER AIR ALOFT TRIGGERING SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C TRIGGERING LAKE INDUCED CAPE
OF AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW THE LAKES TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR NICELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SPREADING INLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ACTING ON
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN HERE THOUGH...EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C WILL FORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOWER CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO FILL BACK IN SOME ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE DUE TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES A STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH SOME MVFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE
MOISTURE HELPS CLOUDS TO HANG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DAYTIME
HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS TO EVEN EXPAND
FOR AWHILE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...BEFORE
ONGOING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR A FINAL CLEARING TREND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL MAINLY
FROM STURGEON POINT TO THE PA STATE LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 240830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
430 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING CLOUDS
FILLING BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO COOLER AIR ALOFT TRIGGERING SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +8C TRIGGERING LAKE INDUCED CAPE
OF AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 7K FEET. THIS WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL KEEP MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW THE LAKES TO FLIP...WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
GIVING WAY TO STABLE LAKE SHADOWS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE LAKE PLAINS TO CLEAR NICELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
SPREADING INLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LAST
TO LOSE THE CLOUDS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ACTING ON
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EVEN HERE THOUGH...EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +8C WILL FORCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH LOW TO MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOWER CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO FILL BACK IN SOME ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE DUE TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES A STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH SOME MVFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY
SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE
MOISTURE HELPS CLOUDS TO HANG OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DAYTIME
HEATING AND COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS TO EVEN EXPAND
FOR AWHILE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...BEFORE
ONGOING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALLOW FOR A FINAL CLEARING TREND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR BY MID MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A
SLOW DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AS WELL MAINLY
FROM STURGEON POINT TO THE PA STATE LINE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KOKX 240754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY EASTERN LOCALES PER 12KM
WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. IN GENERAL THOUGH...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF NYC TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...PUSHING E OF KGON BY MORNING. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

SHRA/TSTMS HAVE CEASED FOR THE TIME BEING WITH VFR CONDS ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE PATCHY MVFR FOG WHERE WINDS LIGHTEN BELOW 5 KT
AND EVEN LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND EAST OF KISP/KBDR OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY AT KSWF EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT OUT BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z WITH THE INCREASING AND DRYING NLY FLOW. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME INDICATING THAT WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

NYC TERMINALS: DIRECTIONS BECOME RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BY 09Z AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW







000
FXUS61 KOKX 240754
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
354 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARDS MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.

CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY EASTERN LOCALES PER 12KM
WRF...WRF-NMM...WRF-ARW...HRRR AND CANADIAN. DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CAPE...AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. IN GENERAL THOUGH...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ASSUMING MIXING UP TO ABOUT H8...HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SEEM
REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS SETTLING AROUND 12C PER NAM AND GFS.
MOS NUMBERS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.

CANNOT RULE OUT LATE DAY SEA BREEZES IF WINDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WEAK.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES TODAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE...WITH 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND 60S NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK H5 SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA IN ZONAL FLOW RESULT IN SLIGHT/LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER
THE FRONTAL SURFACE.

AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT AND THE INCREASING MOISTURE PRESENT...TIMING OF MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. 24/00Z GFS IS MORE
ROBUST/QUICKER THAN 24/00Z CMC/ECMWF WITH A WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY. BELIEVE IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAST...THEREFORE DID
NOT GO WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME...THE CMC SOLUTION INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...AS SOMEWHAT STRUNG-OUT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND A STRONG LLJ DEVELOPS ALONG AN AXIS OF HIGHER H5 THETA-E.
ECMWF APPEARS TO KEEP THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW/WEAKER...RESULTING IN HIGHER QPF BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AND OFF TO THE EAST. NONETHELESS...WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TAKING HOLD AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...SOME
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF NYC TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...PUSHING E OF KGON BY MORNING. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

SHRA/TSTMS HAVE CEASED FOR THE TIME BEING WITH VFR CONDS ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE PATCHY MVFR FOG WHERE WINDS LIGHTEN BELOW 5 KT
AND EVEN LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND EAST OF KISP/KBDR OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY AT KSWF EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT OUT BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z WITH THE INCREASING AND DRYING NLY FLOW. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME INDICATING THAT WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

NYC TERMINALS: DIRECTIONS BECOME RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BY 09Z AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS LOOK TO EXIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH STRENGTHENING S/SW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...SEAS LOOK TO REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH TIMING/AMOUNTS
THOUGH...SO WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PICCA
AVIATION...
MARINE...PICCA/PW
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW






000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 240745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS A
NORTHERLY WIND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION
WHICH WILL KEEP A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DESCEND AS THIS TREND WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE H850 TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE AROUND +10C...HOWEVER...WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 75-80F AND MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE
70S FOR THE TERRAIN. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARD DAYS
END AS SUBSIDENCE LAYER LOWERS AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS YIELD
DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN
INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KPOU AND KPSF WHERE THE RAIN WILL END SHORTLY. DUE TO
SOME UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS AT THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z FRI. SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY SCT050 SCT250 AFT 12Z WITH SKC CONDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY EVENING.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 240745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EVOVLES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSPORTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUES.
HIGHS QUITE PLEASANT AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S AS AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 40S UNDER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET/CALM WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD FOSTER AMPLE RADIATIVE PROCESSES
WITH PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE EXPECTED. PATCHY
DENSE FOG ALSO A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.

BY FRIDAY ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT FROM 75
TO 82 UNDER PTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 850
TD BUBBLE WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE BROADER
VALLEYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

THEN ANOTHER PTLY CLOUDY/CLR NIGHT ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AGAIN A GOOD BET HERE AND THERE
WITH LOWS A TAD MILDER UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...48 TO 58.

BY SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE UNDER GRADUALLY DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN DRY AS HIGHS TOP OUT FROM 77
TO 84.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE FEATURES REMAINS GENERALLY
WELL SPECIFIED AMONGST 00Z/25TH GUIDANCE SUITE. AN INITIAL PERIOD
OF QUASI-ZONAL...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OPENS THE PERIOD. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED CONUS 500-MB PATTERN RESEMBLING A
+PNA: A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL LOW PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT GREAT LAKES LOW
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME (AT LEAST INTO MIDWEEK)
RESULTING IN SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY ROUNDING THE GREAT LAKES LOW WITH THE ECMWF A TAD
SLOWER.

THOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE PERIOD...SUNDAY
WOULD BE ONE DAY THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING GOING FORWARD. FAIRLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS THE BEST OVERLAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WITH PROGGED AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG CONVECTION (1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...-4 TO
-6 LIFTED INDICES...AND A FAST BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
PRODUCING 30-35KT 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE PERIOD FEATURES HIGH CHANCE TO LOW-LIKELY POPS GRADUALLY
TAPERING LOWER EACH SUCESSIVE DAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOWS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S) TURNING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240646
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIXDOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERELY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... OCNLLY RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG...AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND LAST
EVE`S COLD FRNTL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF MVFR
CIGS...BUT A PD OF IFR VSBY`S IN FOG IS ALSO FORESEEN AT KELM.

BY 14-15Z...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RGN...WITH VFR CONDS
THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD (THROUGH 06Z FRI).

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME NWLY 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE TURNING LGT AND VRBL AGN AFTER 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240646
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
246 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIXDOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS FIRM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SWINGING THE FLOW TO SOUTHERELY. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH 80S RETURNING FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A CYCLONE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO NY AND PA TOWARD THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY. THE GFS
HOLDS THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE, SPREADING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FA BY MIDDAY.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... OCNLLY RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG...AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND LAST
EVE`S COLD FRNTL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF MVFR
CIGS...BUT A PD OF IFR VSBY`S IN FOG IS ALSO FORESEEN AT KELM.

BY 14-15Z...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RGN...WITH VFR CONDS
THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD (THROUGH 06Z FRI).

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME NWLY 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE TURNING LGT AND VRBL AGN AFTER 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KOKX 240628
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
228 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCALS AREA. HOWEVER WITH FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS E LI/SECT ON
THU...OTHERWISE DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY
NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES ON THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF NYC TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...PUSHING E OF KGON BY MORNING. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

SHRA/TSTMS HAVE CEASED FOR THE TIME BEING WITH VFR CONDS ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE PATCHY MVFR FOG WHERE WINDS LIGHTEN BELOW 5 KT
AND EVEN LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND EAST OF KISP/KBDR OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY AT KSWF EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT OUT BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z WITH THE INCREASING AND DRYING NLY FLOW. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO`ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME INDICATING THAT WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

NYC TERMINALS: DIRECTIONS BECOME RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BY 09Z AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING
AND AMOUNTS...THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS61 KBGM 240545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIXDOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE CONFIRMED BY GOOD
12Z MODEL AGREEMENT WHICH SUGGESTS A NICE CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THEN APPEARS TO OPEN UP MORE ZONALLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE DIGGING OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING WARM
FRONT...AND CLIPPER-LIKE LOW REACHES THE UPPER GTLKS BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT AM LEANING ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THUS...WE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE EVENING TO BLEND WITH HIGHER POPS HEADING
INTO SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPS
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH LOWS UPPER 40S-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... OCNLLY RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG...AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND LAST
EVE`S COLD FRNTL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF MVFR
CIGS...BUT A PD OF IFR VSBY`S IN FOG IS ALSO FORESEEN AT KELM.

BY 14-15Z...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RGN...WITH VFR CONDS
THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD (THROUGH 06Z FRI).

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME NWLY 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE TURNING LGT AND VRBL AGN AFTER 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ







000
FXUS61 KBGM 240545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO NY AND PA. A WARM FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER INTO THE FA
TODAY. 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 18C AND 21C, LEADING TO PLEASANT
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 70S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE TEENS THROUGH 600MB INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO NO GUSTY MIXDOWN IS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE CONFIRMED BY GOOD
12Z MODEL AGREEMENT WHICH SUGGESTS A NICE CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH
WORKING INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THEN APPEARS TO OPEN UP MORE ZONALLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE MAJOR
HIGH AMPLITUDE DIGGING OCCURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAST MOVING WARM
FRONT...AND CLIPPER-LIKE LOW REACHES THE UPPER GTLKS BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH COULD TRIGGER A
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT AM LEANING ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN. THUS...WE INTRODUCED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY JUST BEFORE EVENING TO BLEND WITH HIGHER POPS HEADING
INTO SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPS
MAINLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH LOWS UPPER 40S-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CONTS TO FEATURE RIDGING IN THE WEST
AND TROFFINESS IN THE EAST. BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM EXPECT
STRONG H5 S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST TO THROW PIECES OF
ENERGY AT CWA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS TO BE A MESSY
AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND HV OPTED NOT TO GO LKLY POPS FOR
SAT NGT AS MODELS DIFFER ON EVENTUAL MVMNT OF SFC LOPRES. BUT MED
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA WL BE IN WM SECTOR ALONG WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THUS HV GONE LKLY POPS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CLOSED UL LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CANADA TUE NGT AND HV GONE NO POPS FOR THE NIGHTTIME HRS WITH
ONLY CHC POPS DRG THE AFTN.

FROPA EXPECTED BY TUE MRNG WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO CWA TUE
AFTN. BFR THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THIS TIME OF YR UNDER A HUMID AIRMASS. GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS AREA
IS IN, EXPECT WRMR MIN TEMPS THAN MAX TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L60S AND
HIGHS IN THE U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... OCNLLY RESTRICTIVE CONDS WILL IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MRNG...AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND LAST
EVE`S COLD FRNTL PASSAGE. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE RESULT OF MVFR
CIGS...BUT A PD OF IFR VSBY`S IN FOG IS ALSO FORESEEN AT KELM.

BY 14-15Z...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE RGN...WITH VFR CONDS
THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD (THROUGH 06Z FRI).

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BECOME NWLY 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN...BEFORE TURNING LGT AND VRBL AGN AFTER 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...VFR.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ






000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240531
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY AND BRING
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1046 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTIVE STORMS HAVE PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE SVR TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELED ACROSS VT AND NRN NY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
STORM REPORT STATEMENT FOR DAMAGE REPORTS RECEIVED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE COUNTIES WILL
GENERALLY END BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW FLOW AND COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW-SE. MAY SEE A BIT
OF PATCHY FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
RECEIVED 1-2" OF RAINFALL. THAT SAID...THE DRIER AIR AND NW WINDS
5-10 MPH WILL LIMIT EXTENT/DURATION OF FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK...AND LOCALLY INTO THE UPR 40S ACROSS NRN
NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GIVEN THE
ONGOING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...DID
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WENT WITH THE
SUPER-BLEND DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...STILL LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT RUT THAT
LOOK TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PREDOMINANTLY BKN/OVC VFR
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO VFR ALL SITES. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING
PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON NORTH WINDS 6-10 KTS WILL LIKELY
KEEP MIST OR FOG FROM DEVELOPING...DESPITE FAVORABLE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY UNDER MODEST COLD/DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A DEEP DEPTH SUGGEST ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CU WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASES (6 KFT) THURSDAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT BTV...WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DROPPING OFF TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY EARLY EVENING. FOG/MIST LOOKS MORE LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS WITH 6SM BR AT MPV AND SLK
AROUND 04Z/25TH.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

00Z SUN ONWARD...VFR/MVFR WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.